Last night in the mid-week update, I mentioned how likely a bounce was for today given oversold conditions in the SPX, QQQ, and SMH. I also noted how oversold AMZN was to guard against further declines, clarifying that technicals do not anticipate earnings reactions. In a neutral way, I highlighted that AAPL was overbought and outlined the technical reasons why a decline was likely. Both of those expectations played out today 🎯.

Following its earnings release, META began the decline with a gap-fill attempt as expected, MSFT continues to look constructive, and GLD showed technical signs of recovery, closing in the green today and building on the bullish thesis. On a separate note, TSLA was due for a strong bounce, which also materialized today.

All of those moves were anticipated through objective and transparent technical analysis presented to subscribers. Now let us talk about levels, because the bounce was strong and recovered essential lines modeled ahead of the session.

The central daily level for the SPX was 7,360, acting as support during the session. The price moved toward the next daily level of 7,406, consolidating until 12:45 before continuing its course to the central weekly and monthly levels, which served as a precise resistance zone. Specifically, the central monthly level at 7,452 acted as the exact resistance zone for the high of the day, while the central weekly level of 7,437 marked the precise close of the session. Because those levels were modeled before July and the week began, they serve as vital guides for anticipating where institutional algorithms are likely to react.

MSFT rallying 15% as the third-largest company in the world fueled tech, combined with cooler PCE inflation data and slowing GDP growth, helped calm the intense bond market sell-off from the day before. It remains impressive how accurately the levels acted as destinations for the SPX, and how MSFT reached our annual level of 459 included in my weekly charts.

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With that said, let us study the SPX levels for tomorrow. AMZN, the fourth-largest company, is moving strongly after hours (+8%), while AAPL, the second-largest company, continues to validate its bearish reversal thesis with a -7% move.

As we close out the final day of July, the market must hold the following weekly chart structure to set up a consolidation phase rather than a continued sell-off:

The Most important Chart of the Week:

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U.S. stocks closed sharply lower, suffering a steep broad-market sell-off catalyzed by a combination of hawkish Federal Reserve division, mounting inflation fears, and geopolitical escalation. The Federal Reserve voted 9–3 to maintain benchmark interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, marking an ongoing pause . However, the decision rattled investors as three regional Fed presidents dissented in favor of an immediate quarter-point rate hike due to sticky inflation. This divided stance, coupled with Warsh’s commentary highlighting persistent price pressures, triggered a strong sell-off as the price of the SPX reversed from 7,452, our key central monthly level that has defined momentum and volatility over recent days.

Compounding these domestic concerns, geopolitical tensions spiked following an unexpected attack on U.S. forces in the Middle East, moving oil CL=F +7%, and intensifying worries over rising energy-driven inflation. Let’s see if the high probability setup posted for XOM during the weekend reaches its bullish target.

On a shorter-term basis, the market lost the 7,421 central daily level at the open and slid to 7,352, our second bearish layer, by noon. Prices found a temporary bounce and gained traction when the widely anticipated interest rate pause was announced, but reversed sharply once the Fed Chair began his commentary. During rate decisions, the Fed Chair’s remarks are just as critical as the policy choice itself. As longer-term bond yields surged, the recovery vanished, pushing the SPX down to test the 7,321 daily bearish level shared yesterday.

Tech presented oversold conditions that opened up the probabilities for a bounce, for that reason I shared last night daily levels for QQQ and SMH today, but 674 and 527 respectively were not conquered, and both ETFs closed at the lowest daily levels shared last night: 662 for QQQ, and 502 for SMH. See how the three tickers closed at their lowest daily level in synchrony, another reference of why institutional algorithms react to these modeled levels ahead of each session.

With the potential bounce unconfirmed by the recovery of key levels for the SPX and QQQ, we continue studying the likely sell-off destination outlined over the weekend. Let’s begin our mid-week market update by examining the SPX, QQQ, SMH, and GLD, alongside current setups for META, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, AMD, and GOOG now that its post-earnings gap has been filled as expected.

I highlighted four elements over the weekend that were likely to pressure the stock market. So far, geopolitical tensions and the Fed’s hawkish tone are playing out. On the tech earnings front, MSFT’s preliminary move of +8% is offsetting META’s bearish reaction of -7%.

Will Gold reappear as a safe-haven asset? I will be doing a deep dive into gold, covering both its technical setup and the macro aspects you need to consider.

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Let’s begin.

SPX - The bearish target outlined during the weekend continues in play:

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Investors continued pulling capital away from AI-driven semiconductor darlings and rotated into consumer, healthcare, and industrial sectors. The semiconductor rout worsened as the Semiconductor ETF SMH tumbled for a fourth straight day, with individual memory leaders Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Micron Technology (MU) each plunging over 8%.

Meanwhile, robust Q2 results fueled a massive surge in the Dow. Paint maker Sherwin-Williams (SHW) jumped over 8%, Coca-Cola (KO) rose 5% after raising its full-year guidance, and Boeing (BA) added more than 4% on positive free cash flow data. You could truly call this an earnings extravaganza in value corporations.

High Probability Setups Update

It is only Tuesday, and the targets shared over the weekend in the Weekly Compass continue working exceptionally well. Apple (AAPL) defied the broader hardware slump by climbing to become the first company in history to hit a $5 trillion market capitalization, hitting my first bullish target of 338 and gaining 2.1% this week 🎯.

Yesterday, I highlighted AMD and SMH as high-probability bearish setups from the Weekly Compass that successfully reached their targets. Today, AAPL, WMT, COST, and NFLX have joined them by hitting their bullish targets. This demonstrates how my setups remain objective and neutral (not only bearish or bullish), with every chart analyzed strictly on its own merits:

• AMD: Exceeded its extended bearish target of 469, falling -12.9% this week 🎯.

• SMH: Exceeded its extended bearish target of 534, falling -5.6% this week 🎯.

• WMT: Exceeded its bullish target of 113, up +3.8% this week 🎯.

• NFLX: Reached its bullish target of 73.1, up +4.4% this week 🎯.

• AAPL: Hit 338, bullish +2.1% this week 🎯.

• COST: Exceeded its bullish target of 962, up +3.3% this week 🎯..

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Consistency

This is the main attribute every investor and trader must possess, which is why I publish special studies in the market intelligence section on SmartReversals.com and revisit them constantly. Today, I am recalling a key point from the Weekly Compass: the -1.3% move in the NDX at the beginning of the week.

After the analysis, get access to the daily levels not only for the SPX, but also for META, MSFT, AMZN, AAPL, SPCX, XOM, V, QCOM, and KO.

Oversold Conditions Reached: What to Expect

The chart below illustrates what I outlined over the weekend regarding the rapid sell-off scenario for tech.

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As noted in Saturday’s chat update for the QQQ chart, tech remains locked in a bearish channel, leaving any rally on Monday with low probability to be sustained for the SPX, NDX, SPY, and QQQ.

True to my weekend outlook, both GOOG printed a gap-fill attempt today bouncing +2.3%, while TSLA overextended its daily technical conditions, keeping the thesis for an imminent squeeze fully intact. However, the standout move of the session was a sell-off in semiconductors. Both SMH and AMD cleanly sliced during market hours through the bearish targets outlined in the Weekly Compass, closing down -2.3% and -5.2% respectively 🎯.

We also saw an intriguing divergence within tech today. Instead of the usual split between the Magnificent Seven and semiconductors, the divergence occurred between hardware and software. The software ETF (IGV) rallied 3.3%, alongside strong gains in tracked names like MSFT (+1.9%), PLTR (+7%), NOW (+7%), ORCL (+4.3%), and APP (+5.3%).

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The latest S/R levels for this week and the Weekly Compass are below:

Looking ahead to tomorrow’s game plan, below I map out daily levels for the SPX, accompanied by a breakdown of the mega-caps reporting earnings this week, including META, MSFT, AMZN, AAPL, XOM, V, QCOM, and KO. SPCX also included, it printed a third consecutive indecisive daily candle today as it edges closer to the earnings report.

Let’s begin

SPX: Levels and Plan for Tuesday, July 28

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The Q2 2026 earnings season has revealed a divergence between the broader market and the highly scrutinized mega-cap technology space, while Wall Street banks and key defensive sectors like healthcare have delivered strong results.

In the tech sector, sharp post-earnings stock declines for mega-caps like GOOG and TSLA were generally not caused by poor revenue or core business growth. Instead, a clear pattern of “AI cash burn anxiety” emerged. Both Alphabet and Tesla handily beat top-line expectations, with Google Cloud revenues surging and Tesla delivering solid vehicle metrics. However, Alphabet’s massive infrastructure spending pushed its quarterly free cash flow into a negative deficit, while Tesla’s core automotive margins narrowed due to EV price wars and heavy AI investments. Investors are no longer content with just impressive AI growth, and the market is aggressively punishing companies where massive capital expenditures actively drain free cash flow before showing direct, near-term monetization.

Why is the NDX 9% Below All-Time Highs While the SPX Is Down Just 3%?

In contrast to the tech sector’s volatile reception, major U.S. financial institutions kicked off the earnings season with strong results. JPMorgan (JPM) led the financial sector posting robust net profits and beating consensus EPS expectations. The overarching theme for big banks, including BAC, GS, MS; is a resurgence in capital markets. Wall Street trading desks and investment banking advisory fees surged, driven by a macro recovery in global mergers and acquisitions and high-volume equity trading, while consumer credit profiles remained stable.

Adding a vital defensive pillar to the broader market narrative, the healthcare sector delivered heavyweight support led by UnitedHealth Group (UNH), with a stellar Q2 report that crushed Wall Street expectations. Its medical care ratio improved signaling that medical cost utilization and Medicare Advantage pressures are normalizing faster than anticipated. Bolstered by disciplined cost management and raised full-year guidance. The broader healthcare landscape shows that defensive companies with pricing power and cost controls can insulate themselves from macro headwinds, offering a stable safe haven while capital cycles rotate away from overextended growth areas.

The Energy sector is being fueled by oil prices, the sector is projected to post the highest year-over-year earnings growth rate of all eleven S&P sectors, surging over 100%. This week XOM, SHEL, and CVX will post earnings reports and we will learn the actual effect of oil prices.

With that said we have three observations:

1. Corporate America remains profitable on an index level, with blended year-over-year S&P 500 earnings growth tracking near multi-year highs. From the fundamental or micro perspective the outlook is promising.

2. Capital is shifting away from priced-to-perfection AI hardware and software giants and flowing instead into historically disciplined, cash-flow-supportive sectors like financials, healthcare, and select cyclicals. The problem with that is the influence of technology in the general market and consumer discretionary.

3. Monitoring megacaps and high volume assets in general from different sectors is a healthy discipline, last week the anticipated bullish moves for JPM, IBIT, ETHA, GLD reached their targets, as the bottom I called for XOM three weeks ago continues working, the stock is up +15% from the bullish reversal call.

Unlock the premium content by upgrading to the paid plan. The complete set of charts and price targets for next week are below. The previous publications and this one are available at smartreversals.com.

With major companies reporting earnings next week, my daily note with SPX levels will also provide bullish-above and bearish-below levels along with their targets for the following securities: MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, META, XOM, V, QCOM, and KO (which are all posting earnings), as well as SPCX, which is technically oversold and will post earnings the following week.

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Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

• Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Let’s begin.

SPX: Next Week is Critical

This is a market with major moves overnight driven by not one, not two, nor three macro factors, but next week it will be driven by four macro factors (1) Conflict in Iran, 2) tariffs (Foreign Retaliation and/or White House Expansion Threats), 3) Fed meeting and PCE, 4) tech investors questioning when the major capital expenditures will be recovered) plus a fifth factor: the earnings report of many of the biggest companies based on market capitalization. This choppy market has brought major swings overnight and next week it is not expected to be any different.

Non-tech sectors have provided support for the S&P500, but if the market's reaction to next week's earnings reports mirrors the negative sentiment seen with GOOG and TSLA, the sell-off will likely continue. Last week for example, the expected bullish continuation for PLTR lost its central weekly level, while the anticipated bearish move for AMZN played out as projected, clearly accompanied by high volatility. Overall, last week proved to be a difficult period for the technology sector, dragging down the SPX and causing it to lose its Central Monthly Level on Thursday, which then acted as resistance on Friday as anticipated.

Technical conditions presented with the charts below provide a roadmap and tools to navigate this context, indicators give us direction probabilities, and price levels provide confirmations. Let’s begin with the SPX chart and then we continue with VIX, Breadth, and NDX to present the likely destination for this market move:

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It was a volatile and difficult week on Wall Street, as major U.S. indexes finished lower across the board. The market logged its first back-to-back weekly losses since March, primarily dragged down by anxiety over massive corporate spending on artificial intelligence (AI), surging energy costs, and new trade policies.

Key Market Drivers This Week

• Big Tech AI Spending Jitters: Q2 earnings sparked investor concern as GOOG dropped -7.8% for the week following raised capital expenditure guidance for AI data centers, while TSLA plummeted -17.8% amid negative free cash flow driven by massive investments in AI and robotics.

• Geopolitical Escalation & Energy Volatility: Oil (CL=F) surged over +10.6% reaching $90 following Middle East hostilities and Red Sea tanker attacks.

• Rising Treasury Yields: Energy price spikes fueled inflation fears as I highlighted on Wednesday, creating downward pressure on equity valuations ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.7% and rate hikes are on the table for this second half of the year.

My Weekly Compass last Saturday was titled "Triple Threat" based on three key factors that effectively injected downward pressure on the stock market this week. Now, a fourth factor has emerged, extending the list of hurdles for an already weak price action that we have been tracking:

• New Tariff Regime: The U.S. administration introduced a permanent tariff overhaul ranging from 10% to 12.5% on 60 trading partners under Section 301, triggering sharp declines across Asian and global chip-heavy tech indices.

As mentioned recently, these events serve as catalysts for a pullback in overextended charts. The semiconductor euphoria needed a reset, much like we saw in precious metals earlier this year, and in individual names that seemed unbeatable in 2025 such as PLTR, MSFT, META, and NFLX. This is why technical analysis is essential: when prices are overextended, it can flash warning signs for long-term investors who want to avoid 30% drawdowns or even deeper losses. Just look at the current price of those names versus their highs, which is the same story for MU, QCOM, and MRVL despite Jensen Huang's call for "the next trillion-dollar company," alongside many others. This is why this publication works for both traders and long-term investors. From the recent bullish opportunities highlighted recently, AAPL and XOM stand out, both are up 15% this month alone.

Levels as Confirmation Tools

A chart can be overbought printing warning signs studied here for subscribers, and in order to avoid premature decisions (selling too soon or buying too early), the support and resistance levels modeled here in advance for the next week and month set a bullish above / bearish below line that after more than two years of this publication have proven their worth to make more informed decisions.

Today, most of the securities tracked here closed below their central weekly level for next week. More critically, this week the SPX and many other securities lost their central monthly level (CML); as we have studied, monthly levels validate price structures for the longer term. For this week, for example, the SPX and QQQ were considered to set a bullish move to 7,549 and 717 respectively, but they breached their central weekly levels (7,490 -0.4% and 702 -1%) invalidating the thesis and acting in this case as capital protection. The weekly levels also help establish specific targets, as was the case this week for JPM, GLD, IBIT, and ETHA (Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs), which reached their respective targets of 353 (+3.5%), 382 (+3.7%), 37.3 (+3%), and 14.6 (+5.2%). The favorable risk-reward ratio that comes with applying disciplined level management is clear.

These levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.

Our Core Watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Unlock this valuable tool by upgrading your subscription to the paid plan, paid subscribers receive three core weekly publications (Friday, Saturday, Wednesday), plus daily updates for the SPX and its daily levels. Next week is packed with earnings I will also track daily MSFT, META, QCOM, AAPL, AMZN, KO, V, and XOM.

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Let’s begin,

WEEKLY LEVELS

As the analysis below highlights, the SPX, NDX, DJI, ES, and NQ futures are all in negative territory along with their corresponding ETFs (SPY, QQQ, DIA), alongside IWM and SMH. The percentages highlighted in red indicate the moves needed to recover bullish momentum. Interestingly, a few tech stocks and non-tech mega-caps remain in the green:

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However, the definitive catalyst driving the market lower extended beyond tech alone. By 8:29 AM, futures were already sliding steadily, but once the weekly jobless claims were posted, the vulnerable market setup outlined in the previous night's daily technical levels quickly gained traction. Upon the release of the data, ES Futures consolidated a breach of our central weekly level (bullish above/bearish below) of 7,535 posted last Friday, taking a direct elevator down toward the bearish support target of 7,438.8 (also posted last Friday with the S/R levels). This downside acceleration was triggered as initial U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly plunged by 22,000 to 187,000 for the week ending July 18, completely defying economist forecasts of 212,000 and marking the lowest level of applications for unemployment benefits since September 1969.

Why Good News Is Bad News

The Federal Reserve remains heavily focused on containing inflation, a pressure exacerbated by the recent spike in oil (CL=F) to $92. This rock-solid jobs data proves the broader economy has not broken under the current interest rates, giving the central bank the green light to keep policy restrictive for longer. While the FED meets next week and is widely expected to hold interest rates steady, the probability of at least one more quarter-percentage-point rate hike before the end of 2026 has increased. Because the current macroeconomic environment shows no signs of slowing down quickly, the economy is not cooling fast enough to bring inflation smoothly back to its 2% target. Although an immediate rate hike is not consensus for this meeting, market participants should prepare for a decidedly hawkish tone from the FOMC.

As we head into next week, a heavy slate of mega-cap earnings featuring MSFT, META, AMZN, and AAPL will coincide with the Fed meeting. The current price structure looks extremely fragile for the SPX, NDX and the Mag 7 in general, with the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) losing the critical annual level we have tracked over the last few weeks while studying a developing top formation that is now gaining clear traction.

Today, we will examine the daily levels to watch for the SPX tomorrow, alongside specific parameters for GOOG, TSLA, NOW, INTC, SPCX, NVDA, and MU. Notably, unhealed gaps remain above the current price for GOOG, TSLA, and the SPX.

The specific daily levels that must be recovered on Friday 24th to hint any tactical bounce within an overall bearish setup are below.

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Before the chart let’s study the daily plan for the SPX:

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There is a divergence forming in the market that deserves serious attention, and it is not showing up in the headline index number. The SPX is holding near its highs, my anticipated annual target of 7,638 set the expected rejection in June with the all time highs at 7,620 (and posted that day that the target could be considered reached), price is compressing with a series of lower highs and higher lows. On the surface, everything looks constructive. But when I look beneath the index, at the groups that built this rally and carried it for two and a half years, the picture is more complex.

The Magnificent Seven, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, GOOG, META, and TSLA, combined carry somewhere between $16 and $18 trillion in market capitalization. That is approximately 30 to 33% of the entire SPX. When this group moves, the index moves. When this group stalls, the index borrows time. 2026 has not been the best year for some of these giants, MSFT, TSLA, and META have performed -18%, -17%, and -5% respectively before today’s earnings reports (as we have navigated after hours moves, the final verdict comes during market hours tomorrow), NVDA, AMZN, and GOOG have performed +14%, +6% and +9% with significant volatility. AAPL is the only outstanding considering the bullish year with +20% gains in 2026. (NVDA at +14% versus +62% average in semiconductors as sector average is quite modest).

Then there is the semiconductor complex. TSMC, ASML, AMD, AVGO, MU, QCOM, AMAT, Lam Research, and others, carry an aggregate market capitalization in the range of $8 to $9 trillion, heavily skewed by NVDA also in this group. The combined weight of the semiconductor complex and the Magnificent Seven represents a concentration of market influence that has never existed before in this form, and both groups are now underperforming the market they are supposed to be driving.

The fundamental question I keep coming back to is what exactly is sustaining the SPX at these levels if the two groups responsible for the majority of its gains are not participating with conviction. The answer, at least partially, lies in the AI capex narrative. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are collectively committing hundreds of billions annually to GPU-dense data center infrastructure. That spending flows to NVDA first, then cascades through the supply chain. The entire semiconductor thesis for this cycle rests on that spending continuing, accelerating, and eventually generating returns large enough to justify the valuations embedded in both groups. The market is beginning to ask whether those returns will materialize on the timeline that current prices assume.

The earnings quality difference between these two groups also matters here. The Magnificent Seven generate revenue from advertising, cloud subscriptions, consumer hardware, enterprise software, and logistics. These are diversified, recurring, and relatively predictable streams. The semiconductor complex, by contrast, is increasingly dependent on a single demand driver. That asymmetry means the Magnificent Seven can potentially hold their valuations longer on the strength of their own fundamentals even if semiconductor sentiment weakens. But the index cannot absorb a simultaneous drawdown in both groups through rotation alone. No other sector is large enough or growing fast enough to replace $25 trillion in combined market influence if confidence in AI monetization erodes.

What the Rest of the Market Is Saying

The sector picture adds important context to this divergence. Financials are trending constructively as we also see every week with JPM, and V. On the surface this looks like a positive signal, and in isolation it is. Banks benefit from elevated rates, healthy credit spreads, and continued economic activity. Financials carry roughly 13% of the SPX, and their strength signals that credit markets are functioning and corporate borrowing remains viable. But financial leadership in the absence of tech confirmation as a transitional signal rather than a durable one. Late in cycles, money often rotates into financials precisely because it is leaving growth. If the economy softens from here, credit quality deteriorates quickly and financials tends to roll over just as fast as it rose.

Consumer discretionary, is heavily weighted toward Amazon and Tesla, making it a hybrid between consumer behavior and tech sentiment. Its stalling price action says the consumer is becoming more selective and that institutional money is not allocating to discretionary with confidence. When the consumer hesitates, revenue growth across the index eventually follows.

Healthcare is the signal I find most telling. It is non-cyclical. People need medical care regardless of economic conditions, and the sector benefits from demographics, GLP-1 drug demand, and ongoing biotech innovation. When institutional money rotates into healthcare at index highs, it is not expressing optimism. It is hedging. Portfolio managers are reducing risk while maintaining equity exposure, and they are doing it quietly through a defensive sector that does not announce itself the way a dramatic selloff would.

The combination of these signals, tech divergence, semiconductor and Mags 7 underperformance, financial leadership that may be transitional, discretionary stalling, and defensive healthcare accumulation, tells a coherent story. The market is not broken, but it is rotating in a way that historically precedes either a reset in leadership or a broader correction that brings the index in line with where its most important components already trade.

July has been weak so far as technical conditions anticipated, there is one week and a half ahead with major earnings reports, let’s study the charts and setups for the companies we track that are posting earnings this week (GOOG, TSLA, INTC, NOW), their implied moves, and price levels where overextensions could reverse rapidly, as warned last week ahead of NFLX earnings, when an intra-day reversal was anticipated in the bearish scenario (the stock recovered over 5% of their losses during market hours, chasing euphorias is risky but with technical indicators we can anticipate when the price goes too far too fast.

Charts for SPX, SPCX, GLD, are also here, daily levels for tomorrow for all the securities mentioned and MU are here, so you can plan ahead your moves.

Be careful chasing the selloffs for GOOG and TSLA, last week I anticipated how to manage NFLX if it cratered. The daily levels proved to be essential to trail the move.

Next week I will track in the same way the giants posting earnings. Upgrade your subscription and et access to this valuable information.

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Let’s begin with the SPX and expectations considering the context mentioned above.

SPX: Divergences and Expectations

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Chip and hardware makers roared back following a bruising sell-off in prior weeks. Micron (MU) surged 12%, Intel Corp (INTC) rallied 8.6%, and the semiconductors ETF SMH that we track, jumped 4.5%.

As mentioned yesterday, this is a market driven by extended hours moves, the premarket price action is driving most of the moves, and today’s pullback at the opening was marginal, the SPX found support at the central daily level (CDL: Bullish above/bearish below) of 7,465; this level was modeled yesterday for today’s session with 7,490 as the next daily target to watch, the price bounce from the CDL and flipped that first resistance to support in the morning.

I know, MMM and GM rallied 7% and 5% respectively, but the move in SMH (4.5%) was more than twice the NDX bounce (1.9%), and far above SPX (0.9%); for that reason this can be considered a semiconductors-driven rally (or market?), and we’re updating daily levels for MU and NVDA, the first one finding support at the daily level of 917 + the monthly level of 920 during the first hour of the session, then the price action surpassed 961, another level provided yesterday in the set of S/R levels. It’s interesting that NVDA moved a modest 1.9%.

Below, you will see the daily levels for the SPX as we daily update, and the same approach of daily levels combined with weekly and monthly ones to identify confluence zones where institutional algorithms are likely to react for the following securities: SPX, NVDA, MU, GOOG, TSLA, INTC, NOW, and SPCX

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Why those stocks this week?

Semiconductors are showing signs or recovery, GOOG and TSLA post earnings tomorrow, same INTC and NOW on Thursday, all of them are likely to print major moves this week, and SPCX as I mentioned during the weekend, is getting close to a bounce, today the stock recovered its daily level and kept it as support during all the session, the updated levels for tomorrow for all of them are here:

Daily Levels and Higher-Timeframe Confluence Zones

These are the considerations for tomorrow, let’s begin with the SPX:

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While the initial release of Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model last week rattled investors with fears of a “cost-efficient” Chinese competitor, the narrative shifted this morning. Reports that Moonshot AI had to pause new consumer subscriptions due to a lack of sufficient compute capacity served as a potent reminder that, regardless of software efficiency, the physical demand for high-end hardware remains a massive, unyielding bottleneck. This development provided a degree of relief to U.S. chipmakers, suggesting that the “AI race” still requires the very infrastructure that American semiconductor leaders provide.

The Setup Remains Weak

Despite the morning’s initial optimism, the S&P 500 (from +0.5% premarket to -0.2% at the close), Nasdaq 100 (from +1.1% in premarket to +0.04% close), and the Dow Jones (from +0.3% to -0.55%) all lost their central weekly levels within the first 30 minutes of the opening bell, that is a very relevant reference of the lack of conviction in price action. These levels, which I modeled last Friday for this week, are essential for validating potential reversals once breached. You can get them here for the SPX, NDX, DJI, all the magnificent seven, ETFs like QQQ, IWM, SMH, and other megacaps:

The rejection at the 10-day moving average (DMA) today pushed the price back below the 50 DMA, resulting in a close near the lows. This technical action suggests bearish continuation for tomorrow and shows caution ahead of major earnings this week. (GOOG, TSLA, NOW, and INTC, all tracked via levels in this publication below).

Last week, I shared an educational piece on how to assess reversal risks after premarket rallies or selloffs using the SMH, the semiconductor ETF we track. Today’s price action followed that exact script: a premarket rally that ultimately evaporated. I will now break down that same technical indicator and timeframe for the QQQ, applying the lessons we studied last week to today’s market movement.

It Is Perfectly Human

The impulse to react when watching these premarket moves is totally human. It is perfectly normal to feel that pressure. The most important thing is to remain calm considering the price structure (which is studied here and it’s weak for all the indices) and use our levels for validation in order to avoid traps. While we studied this with the SMH last week, let’s apply the same analysis to the QQQ today, as technology drove the premarket rally that ultimately faded.

In Today’s Paid Content:

• QQQ: The setup that helps you avoid market traps: Today’s live case study.

• SPX: Daily levels for tomorrow, combined with all key weekly levels.

• Deep Dive: Our focus for this week includes GOOG, TSLA, NOW, and INTC ahead of their earnings reports. We will also monitor NVDA and MU given the rapid, shifting dynamics in the semiconductor sector, along with SPCX, as the current selloff may present an opportunity for a bounce. The analysis includes daily levels in combination with weekly and monthly ones to anticipate confluence zones.

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QQQ: This Setup Again Brought the Price Back Down...

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This week’s economic indicators paint a picture of steady growth and a resilient labor market, though slight cracks are appearing in consumer activity. Labor market stability remains a highlight, as initial jobless claims fell by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 208,000, outperforming the consensus estimate of 217,000. Meanwhile, consumer spending showed steady headline demand, with June retail sales ticking up 0.2% as vehicle sales and online retail offset a steep drop in fuel prices. Anyway, core retail sales (excluding autos) unexpectedly dipped 0.2%. On the production side, the Philadelphia Fed Business Index surged to a blowout reading of 41.4 in July, crushing forecasts of 12.7 and signaling robust growth in northeastern manufacturing.

Why the Market Pullback? Three Macro Factors to Consider

Tech dragged down the SPX as this heat map presents for the week, below are the reasons:

First, the Federal Reserve, under newly appointed Chair Kevin Warsh, held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.6%. In his first congressional testimony this week, Warsh maintained a strict hawkish tone, reiterating that the Fed has no tolerance for sticky inflation and purposely avoiding any market-friendly forward guidance. The Federal Reserve’s recent Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) lifted core PCE inflation forecasts to 3.3% for 2026, with 9 out of 18 officials projecting at least one rate hike before the year concludes. Driven by rising energy prices and strong labor data, interest-rate futures markets have adjusted aggressively; traders now assign a 15% probability to a rate hike at the upcoming late-July meeting, while expectations for a hike in September have surged to roughly 65%.

Second, the U.S.– Iran ceasefire has officially collapsed as hostilities intensify, with U.S. airstrikes targeting Iranian infrastructure following a series of retaliatory strikes by Iran across the region. Tensions have further escalated in the Strait of Hormuz, where the U.S. has reimposed a naval blockade and Iran has begun targeting commercial shipping, leading to a 14% surge in oil futures CL=F this week to $81.7.

Finally, we must account for the intensifying pressure on semiconductors, driven by both structural and competitive shifts. TSMC recently raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to a range of $60 billion to $64 billion, significantly exceeding its previous $56 billion ceiling. For high-multiplier tech stocks, such a massive spike in capex implies heavier near-term depreciation loads and constrained free cash flow, leading investors to scrutinize whether the expected returns on this AI infrastructure truly justify such extreme spending. This skepticism is compounded by the rapid maturation of Chinese AI models, specifically Moonshot AI’s newly launched Kimi K3. By offering world-class performance through an open-weight, low-cost model, Chinese developers are effectively challenging the proprietary "walled gardens" of U.S. firms. As highly capable alternatives emerge globally, the market is beginning to question the sustainability of the current U.S. AI capital arms race and the eventual return on investment for the sector's darlings (AMD, MU, NVDA, AVGO, etc).

News are Catalysts for Technical Conditions

Everything is connected, and the recent events are consistent with two elements I have been documenting in this publication: The high odds of a bullish reversal in oil, and more specifically in XOM as a high probability setup posted last week considering a bullish reversal validated by a recovery of 139.6 with targets at 143 and extension to 147 (provided in S/R Levels), the stock jumped 6.1% this week closing at 147.4 🎯.

For semiconductors, the bearish conditions have been documented, last Saturday this publication highlighted the gap for SMH at 595 and the loss of key moving averages; for AMD I highlighted the gap a 522 and the shooting star in place. those elements are examples of technical conditions studied. As example of using levels as triggers we analyzed the implications (bearish destinations) for SMH and AMD if 598 and 541 were lost (547 🎯 and 468.8 🎯 were extended targets respectively, both securities reversed there on Friday).

=> Technical conditions + Levels are a strong formula to navigate the market.

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High Probability Setups

Neutrality: I remain bullish when technical conditions support it and bearish when a reversal is likely. This is an important distinction for new subscribers who may be accustomed to the inherent bias found in many other publications. For instance, there are metal-focused outlets that have maintained a bullish stance since March in Gold and Silver despite of the clear overextension that needed a major correction, crypto publications insisting in a bounce when technicals did not support that, and others that remain dogmatically bullish on semiconductors regardless of the charts.

Will they reach all-time highs again? Certainly. However, identifying exactly when and how much pain is required to get there is where neutral, professional technical analysis provides the most value.

I was bullish at the market bottom in late March providing clear references, targeting 7,638 for the SPX and announcing on the day that 7,620 was reached, that the milestone could be considered met. More recently, over the past two weeks, we have monitored the internal divergence in tech, including the bearish call in late June for semiconductors, while simultaneously providing specific bullish targets for a bounce in select Magnificent Seven names. That is neutrality, and that is how you outperform the market.

When indices are choppy, individual names are key: Three weeks ago, I highlighted the probabilities for a bullish reversal in Bitcoin, providing specific targets along with risk management and invalidation levels. Bitcoin and Ethereum, tracked via their respective ETFs, IBIT and ETHA, have since jumped 6% and 15% reaching this week our targets of 37 🎯 and over 14 🎯, respectively. MSFT surpassed this week our bullish target of 396 by nearing the documented extension at 406 for a 5.6% move 🎯, while WMT hit its bullish target extension at 117.3 for a 3% gain 🎯, and as mentioned above, XOM surpassed 147.6 with comfort 🎯.

Unlock this transparent and objective approach every week by upgrading to the paid plan, the setups for next week are here with price targets and risk management levels. Subscribers also get daily market updates with levels for the SPX, and access to educational content and Market Intelligence analyses.

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Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual charts and targets for all Magnificent 7 and megacaps.

• Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Today I included SpaceX in the charts, the stock has been tracked using levels from day 1, now there is a good set of data and technical signals that are worth watching.

Let’s begin.

SPX: Tech Lost the Critical level - Implications for SP500

We have been tracking this topping process, highlighting its various stages in this chart. From the early warnings that precede each pullback highlighted in each yellow box to the major confirmation sign forming today as the new convention highlights here for the S&P 500:

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Wall Street endured a volatile week as a deeper pullback in major technology stocks snapped recent winning streaks in the SPX. For that reason, we closely tracked the QQQ / NDX in our daily market analysis this week.

Semiconductors remain under pressure. This week alone, the market darlings continued to be punished: AMD lost -11%, MU -13%, AVGO -7%, and NVDA -4%. The semiconductor ETF SMH we tracked throughout the week, fell -9%.

China’s newly unveiled “Moonshot” AI model and valuation concerns added pressure to the weak conditions we identified in last Saturday’s Weekly Compass for the SMH, NVDA, AVGO, and AMD, especially considering their failure to hold essential price levels after reversing from overbought conditions I highlighted in this publication in June, when many people were euphoric and skeptic about the overbought conditions in semis.

Technicals are proving their worth alerting about overextensions in semiconductors, just as they did with GLD and SLV since March, with PLTR since November, and with NFLX since July 2025.

That said, the NDX dropped -4% this week, breaching a highly relevant level and printing a major crossover. July is not proving to be as bullish as macro analysts suggest based on statistics (biased when there is a bias in years selected). A few weeks ago, I shared in this publication that the winning streak for July is starkly different if you compare the last 20 years to the previous 20; the story is completely inverse. For that reason, I always recommend analyzing charts and remaining skeptical of statistical tables that do not reflect the price action story behind every year analyzed.

Friday is our day for mapping the support and resistance levels for the week ahead. Below, you will find the levels where institutional algorithms are most likely to react. Numbers always tell the truth, and the weekly lows for TSLA, AMD, NVDA, and GOOG to name a few, they matched these levels (376, 468, 197, and 345.5, respectively)… same for the highs of the week for AAPL, WMT, and XOM to name a few (337, 117, 149, respectively).

Weekly levels for the week ahead are updated below for the following:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

These levels are modeled every Friday to help you assess bullish or bearish conditions and risk/reward before the market opens on Monday. You do not have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan; you have the distances to essential levels and the setups indicating whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, allowing you to make informed, serene decisions before Monday morning. Unlock these levels by upgrading to the paid plan:

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When you subscribe you also receive daily updates for the SPX with daily levels.

Before continuing let’s remember my note last night about NFLX considering the selloff, paid subscribers knew the very high odds for a reversal at the opening, the stock bounced from -12% at the opening ($65, where weekly and monthly modeled levels matched) to -7% at the close (reaching the modeled weekly level of 69), that was an easy +5% scalp. The key levels to navigate NFLX next week are below. Be careful being bearish in this market without levels that can anticipate reversals.

Regarding the SPX, the 20 daily moving average was breached and the oscillator is falling from overbought conditions, with a lot of space before getting oversold. Losing this moving average is usually concerning, the levels for the SPX and complete analysis is below. Plan ahead your trading week identifying the securities that are in bearish or bullish conditions and their distance to their targets + invalidation levels, get access now:

WEEKLY LEVELS

The SPX is in bear zone, the level to recover in order to flip momentum is not as close as in previous days, and the context for tech is more challenging.

There is always an opportunity, red marks are the securities struggling, green marks in the same column are the stocks in confort zone:

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This week, we have been tracking developments in the tech sector, specifically focusing on the divergence between the “Magnificent Seven” and the semiconductor industry. Until yesterday, the Magnificent Seven (AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, GOOG, and META) had been cushioning a broader tech selloff, with bullish moves mitigating the decline in semiconductors (MU, AMD, TSM, QCOM, AVGO, and others).

Today, some of the Magnificent Seven (GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, and META) surrendered their gains, while semiconductor stocks continued their downward trend. As I highlighted last night for SMH, the loss of the 10-week moving average (10WMA) was significant. Furthermore, the loss of 598.8—the central weekly level—along with the considerable distance from the central monthly level, made 590 the key daily level needed to validate any potential bounce in this bearish environment.

Regarding the SPX, I posted last night 7,560.3 as the central daily level for today (CDL), with 7,539 and 7,505 serving as the support levels below. The price bounced this morning from the first support zone and then failed to hold the central daily level (CDL). With the temporary support at 7,539 fading, the next bearish target modeled last night was 7,505, and that level ended up to be the low of the day with precision.

The market closed in bearish mode, meaning the central daily level for Friday will act as resistance. Subscribe and get this proven edge every day, plus the main publications on Fridays, Saturdays, and Wednesdays.

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Before we dive into those SPX levels (including today QQQ, SMH, IWM, and other essential ETFs), let’s analyze the status of the latest resolution in tech and the impact of today’s selloff. Also a special note about NFLX.

The most important chart for the entire week builds on the top formation scenario we have been considering since Saturday and tracking in these daily updates.

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Market volatility remains elevated, with semiconductors continuing to drive the major swings we are witnessing. This highlights the ongoing internal divergence within the technology sector: while semiconductors lead the decline, the Magnificent Seven have acted as a buffer, holding the NDX and XLK from falling with more conviction.

The Semiconductor Struggle: Micron (MU) continues to slide, down -21% this month and -28% from its June peak (when I highlighted the elevated risk of chasing the after earnings euphoria). As I have noted in recent weeks, this is a classic correction following overextension, similar to past patterns in Gold, Silver, PLTR, MSFT (2025), and NFLX (2025). Interestingly, while SMH fell -1.6%, AMD -3.5%, and TSM -3.4% this week, NVDA closed flat (+0.3%), remaining resilient amidst the sector storm.

The Tech Divergence: Today, the Magnificent Seven were mostly bullish, preventing a broader tech decline. AAPL (+4%), MSFT (+2.8%), AMZN (+3%), GOOG (+3.6%), and META (+3.1%) all outperformed, with TSLA the only outlier (-0.4%).

Trading Recap & Strategy: Yesterday, I provided a tactical hint on how to anticipate premarket ‘traps’ that vanish at the open. That setup played out perfectly today for the SPX and QQQ. People who set the timeframe and indicator I mentioned yesterday sow a live example of the likely reversal, and if using the daily levels anticipated yesterday for today, the navigation of the retrace was smooth until the price reached our Central Daily Level (CDL), where the market reversed. Today, the SPX 7,538 level acted as precise support at noon, while the 7,562 level served as our bullish recovery target.

Subscribe to the paid plan and receive daily market updates, including anticipated institutional-grade support and resistance levels for the S&P 500. Plan ahead your trades with this golden tool.

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Below, I have analyzed the most critical chart for this week, the one that will dictate the next leg for the NDX and SPX. I have also provided updated daily levels for the SPX, QQQ, SMH, IWM, DIA, IGV, as key ETFs, alongside high-probability setups updates for AAPL, MSFT, XOM, ETH, WMT; all of them moving in the expected direction, and others, all studied in the latest Weekly Compass.

When the indices are choppy, it pays to navigate individual names.

Let’s begin.

Market Direction - The One Chart You Need to Watch

This is the updated chart we began to track since Monday:

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U.S. stocks closed mostly higher on Tuesday as cooler-than-expected inflation data and strong bank earnings relieved pressure on Wall Street, overshadowing ongoing geopolitical tensions and a major corporate profit warning.

The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed that annual inflation slowed to 3.5%, cooler than the 3.8% economists had projected. A 9.7% drop in gasoline prices helped pull headline inflation down, easing investor anxieties about potential interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

The S&P 500 (SPX): Gained +0.4% to close at 7,543.59. At yesterday’s close, I shared the price levels where institutional algorithms were likely to react today; 7,529 served as our central daily level (CDL: bullish above and bearish below) with resistance at 7,551. I also noted that while it is not a formal technical indicator, early-week volatility has recently tended to reverse. True to form, the open was highly volatile, as shown in the 15-minute SPX and QQQ charts below. By framing the candles based on their closing prices, you can see that the SPX moved within the 7,529 to 7,551 range.

Given the internal divergence and lack of synchronization across the Magnificent Seven, semiconductors, and software, technology remains our primary focus today. To navigate this, I provided specific central daily levels (CDL) for QQQ, SMH, and IGV yesterday, setting our bullish above / bearish below levels at 713, 589, and 92.5, respectively. Each CDL was accompanied by corresponding support and resistance zones. The chart above presents in the 15 minute timeframe for the day, QQQ shows how the price stayed above the CDL (713), and moved between 716.9 and 722 during the day.

Interestingly, in the software sector (IGV), we observed a strong bounce from 90.5; the price climbed to 91.6, recovered the 92.5 CDL by 9:45 AM, and then consolidated at 93.7, a level provided well ahead of the session.

The divergence is impressive, while software was bouncing, semiconductors (SMH) were declining, in this case the CDL was held during the day as support, and the price moved between 595 and 605.

All the lines displayed in the four charts above were provided in yesterday’s publication. Having these levels plotted before the market opens provides a significant edge for any trader. I provide those lines combined with weekly levels so you can anticipate confluence zones.

Below, you will find the updated daily levels for tomorrow. Paid subscribers receive daily SPX levels for every upcoming session. Founding members gain access to that same level of granularity for ETFs, the entire Magnificent Seven, semiconductor leaders, and other major megacaps. Subscribe now to unlock this market intelligence.

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Identifying Major Reversals: A Case Study in SMH and IGV

Before we dive into the daily levels for the SPX and key ETFs for tomorrow, this educational piece will help you anticipate the probabilities of a recovery like the one we observed in IGV today, alongside the retracement seen in SMH:

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Furthermore, I highlighted the elevated risk for long positions in semiconductors, given the bearish formations in MU, AMD, and TSM. Ultimately, these stocks dragged the sector, and subsequently technology, lower on a day when non-tech sectors remained neutral to slightly bullish.

Regarding the SPX, there was no weakness in its chart, but given the risk from the tech sector the central daily level (CDL) for today was anticipated on Saturday. The breakdown of 7,554 served as the initial warning before our central weekly level was also compromised.

Daily levels provide early warnings when price action begins to reverse; please see the updated SPX daily levels below. We will also examine the daily levels for key ETFs, including QQQ, SMH, IWM, DIA, VXX, and IGV. Notably, the software sector showed impressive relative strength (consistent with our bullish analysis for MSFT).

Subscribe to the paid plan and unlock the daily levels that will define bullish or bearish momentum for the SPX tomorrow, the respective support and resistance levels, and the most important chart to track this entire week, the one that will give direction to the market for the coming weeks.

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The Main Chart and Formation to Track:

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The week was characterized by strong swings in indices and individual names; geopolitical tensions intensified following U.S. retaliatory military strikes against targets in Iran in response to attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, this sent global oil benchmarks soaring, with Brent crude jumping over 5% and nearing the $80-per-barrel mark. This spike in energy prices immediately reignited fears regarding persistent inflation, and when combined with Federal Reserve meeting minutes suggesting potential further interest rate hikes, the 10 year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.6%, reaching its highest level since May. Later in the week the U.S. president noted that while he has agreed to continue diplomatic talks, the tentative truce has officially been scrapped; then the market recovered and some oil gains were yielded.

In response to the shifting market landscape, sector performance diverged. The weekly move in the SPX remains constructive, though tech-driven (XLK). Materials (XLB), healthcare (XLV), industrials (XLI), consumer staples (XLP), and utilities (XLU) declined while real estate remained flat with discretionary and real state. Energy performed well; XLE still has a gap to fill at 56.22 and is showing a weekly bullish stochastic crossover, suggesting further upside.

With that said, we’re back to a bullish market driven by tech (XLC as communication sector was largely driven by the rally on META). However, there are divergences in tech that I have been tracking daily in this publication:

Two weeks ago, I highlighted the bullish probabilities for the magnificent seven based on a transparent analysis of volume, back then nobody was bullish on them, but we had the technical case and the support and resistance levels to validate the thesis; MSFT 🎯, GOOG 🎯, AAPL 🎯, TSLA 🎯, AMZN 🎯, and META 🎯 rallied reseting daily timeframes, then we monitored continuation, since some of them have long term weak setups, and in fact GOOG, AMZN and MSFT presented weakness this week.

All that happened in a context where semiconductors are suffering high volatility, also as anticipated from the very day when MU posted its earnings report 🎯, trapping many people who don’t have technical or risk management knowledge.

Among other setups, two weeks ago I highlighted the validity of being long in crypto, BTC and ETH have rallied +6% and +15% respectively 🎯.

A more recent call included the bullish one for NVDA, once our central Weekly Level (CWL) of 195 was conquered 🎯. These assessments have been based on technical indicators transparently described, providing specific price targets and invalidation levels to use as a reference for setting stop losses.

This level of specificity is the hallmark of this publication; it is easy to suggest that crypto or metals might bounce over the course of several months, but providing concrete, actionable levels is where the real value lies.

That level of specificity facilitates transparency. For this week, an invalidated setup was NFLX, a stock that is analyzed below with specific indicators, price levels and scenarios considering the earnings report that is coming next week.

Unlock this objective approach by upgrading to our premium plan. Subscribers gain access to exclusive educational content, Market Intelligence reports, and daily market updates featuring daily support and resistance levels for the SPX for the following trading session.

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Explore the content at smartreversals.com. Zero gut feeling, everything is specific.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

• Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Let’s begin.

SPX: Once Again Dependent on Tech

The index achieved a bullish resolution, hitting our weekly target of 7,566. Looking ahead to next week's outlook and targets, please remain mindful of the significant decline in this specific indicator; it is the primary divergence to monitor, and it is important to note that it is not an oscillator:

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Every Friday, I model support and resistance levels for the week ahead, covering the S&P 500 (SPX), key ETFs (QQQ, SPY, IWM, GLD, SLV…), all the Magnificent Seven (NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, TSLA…), and other mega-cap stocks. My technical analysis is designed to identify momentum or the probability of reversals based on established indicators, which I transparently detail in every publication for every stock, making this content action-oriented and educational.

I model these levels to reflect where institutional algorithms are likely to react. By utilizing the central weekly, monthly levels as validators, we can navigate price action with greater precision.

How to Use These Levels

These publications provide a first look at whether a security closed above or below key levels for the upcoming week, allowing you to gauge whether the initial condition is bullish or bearish. These levels serve as validators for momentum; for example, a “bullish setup” remains valid as long as the price sustains itself above the central weekly level.

Recent Performance & Validation:

• SPX: This week, the SPX maintained a bullish bias by staying above 7,457, the bullish target based on a modeled level was 7,566 for a +1.1% move. The index climbed +1.2% 🎯.

• GLD: The bullish setup targeted of 383.3 (+1.4%). The ETF achieved this move before retracing 🎯.

• IBIT: Our weekly Bitcoin study set 35.8 as a bullish target for this ETF (+2.6%), with a potential extension to 36.7 (+5.2%). The high of the week was 36.7 🎯, confirming how institutional algorithms respect these levels.

• WMT: We anticipated a bullish reversal with a recovery of 112; the bounce was validated once this level was reclaimed, the bullish target for next week is here.

• MSFT: The setup was bullish above 380.9 aiming at 401.8, the monthly level at 396.18 acted as resistance, interrupting the weekly setup. This highlights the importance of combining weekly and monthly levels as presented below.

• ETHA: We highlighted a bullish setup targeting 13.4 (+3.9%). The price high reached 13.7 🎯, surpassing target and nearly hitting our secondary target of 13.9.

• SMH: I noted on Wednesday that the target of 563.3 (for a -4.9% move) cousl be considered reached, as the actual low was 566.83 🎯.

These are examples of levels as targets based on technical analysis. These levels also work as risk management tool. For example, NFLX suggested a bullish setup, the target was 80.4 for a +3.5% weekly move but the stock vanished again, good news for subscribers, the invalidation level was 75.7, a reference to set stops based on your own risk tolerance, in order to avoid the selloff to 72.5 as the weekly low where many traders could have capitulated.

Subscribe, the S/R levels are modeled every Friday, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade (jumping among tickers); you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.

The Levels are Modeled for this Core Watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Important Notes:

• SpaceX (SPCX), as the new stock added to the Nasdaq100 (NDX) is modeled here every week as well.

• Daily Levels for SPX are provided to subscribers with the market analysis, that is a major upgrade to my service. Subscribe now to the paid plan, prices will change soon, and current PAID subscribers WON’T (again, WILL NOT) see a single change in their subscription price. Become a paid subscriber now!

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Current Market Outlook

This remains a choppy market, particularly within the technology sector. While the Magnificent Seven are showing resilience by bouncing from oversold conditions (as anticipated for META, AAPL, and NVDA), the semiconductor sector is still fighting to recover key levels and re-establish bullish momentum. SMH is not “out of the woods” yet; MU and AMD have gaps below acting as price magnets and TSM has a weekly shooting star still in play, just to mention few examples.

Let’s begin.

WEEKLY LEVELS

Securities marked in red are the ones in bearish territory at this point, and the percentage highlighted with red is the minimum required bounce to validate any bounce as bullish. See for example NFLX ahead of earnings and SPCX with a major requirement to be in bullish zone:

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The stock market closed with an interesting reversal today. The SPX held its daily level of 7464 as support (modeled yesterday after the market closed), attempting to consolidate at 7,506 during the first hour of trading and filling the early gap. This established a clean, bullish move for the day without magnets below. In this case, the SPX is validating the bullish reversal candle studied last night, providing direction to the setup charted (which featured combined signals and for that reason we use levels). The fact that the central daily level held as support, while the price remains above the central weekly and monthly levels, indicates a bullish formation.

As noted over the weekend, we have been closely monitoring technology as our key mover, and today was no exception. The bullish move in the NDX and QQQ was driven by semiconductors and the magnificent seven. Specifically, META closed up 3.2% with a constructive move that filled the gap formed in the pre-market when it recovered the Central Weekly Level of 587.5 (the bullish above / bearish below level modeled since last Friday. AAPL is approaching our bullish weekly target with high volatility, having bounced 2.4% so far this week. Similarly, MSFT printed a bullish comeback after filling the morning’s gap. AMZN is also breaking out, moving constructively above its central weekly level while recovering the central monthly level with conviction. Overall, the Magnificent Seven appear constructive, suggesting that last week’s bullish move is likely to continue.

Semiconductor Sector: Caution Advised The semiconductor sector presents a different narrative and requires close attention. While the broader market remains constructive, the semiconductor sector is exhibiting some persistent weakness, with notable gaps below current prices that warrant caution.

• SMH: The ETF faced rejection at its central weekly level of 611, and the 20-day moving average acted as a resistance line. With the price failing to maintain momentum, the chart below presents the technical conditions that suggest caution.

• MU: Micron also faced rejection at its central weekly level of 1031.3. It failed to breach its 20-day and 5-week moving averages. While a bullish stochastic crossover is present, the lack of conviction in today’s price action (falling from the highs) is a significant watch out.

Subscribe and unlock the daily levels below for the SPX with this special zoom in to semiconductors including SMH, NVDA, AVGO, AMD, MU, TSM, QCOM, MRVL, and AMAT.

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Is this Bearish?

Both the SPX and the NDX/QQQ are constructive, just be mindful of the most relevant condition in Semiconductors that suggest the choppy price action is far from over and major day to day swings could continue based on the following chart and levels for the semiconductor stocks:

Read more

U.S. stocks closed mixed today following a re-escalation in geopolitical tensions. Main market indexes experienced a highly volatile session, initially tumbling before trimming some losses. The Dow Jones fell-1.1%, probably an initial validation of the overheated signals studied for the previous week, the SPX closed slightly negative -0.3%, and the NDX closed +0.3% despite of the selloff in premarket this morning.

SMH Bounced +2%, How is it Possible?

Last night, I shared the SMH chart with subscribers, highlighting a bullish reversal candle at the lower band, an oversold Stochastic indicator, and the open gap above. As I noted, this “COULD trigger a bounce tomorrow”, which is what we saw today.

Was it a smooth bounce? Not at all. The morning selloff was strong, which is precisely why I provided modeled daily levels (bullish above / bearish below) for today. This included not only the standard SPX levels for paid subscribers in our daily edition, but also for QQQ, SMH, NVDA, AMD, MU, QCOM, TSM, and AMAT, allowing subscribers to validate every move using the central daily level (CDL) and the targets around it.

For example:

The Central Daily Level (CDL) for SMH was 578, with the price turning bullish above it and bearish below. At the open (9:32AM), the price recovered this level, triggering a bullish alert for long positions (and invalidating short positions). Furthermore, the index bounced to 589 and consolidated at 10:00 AM before reversing to revisit 578. It respected that level perfectly, subsequently rallying toward 589 and 597. These were all provided as modeled levels last night, where institutional algorithms often react, as we saw today.

Potential Bullish Setup + Central Level Recovered = Confirmation

Last night, I also highlighted NVDA’s bounce from its 200DMA and the importance of 195.5 as today’s CDL. Once the initial resistance at 199 was breached, the price moved to 202, the next modeled level, and closed the day in the green.

Similar accuracy was seen across MU, AVGO, QCOM, AMAT, TSM, and AMD, while the QQQ CDL at 710 served as resistance throughout the entire session.

Today, we will analyze charts for SPX, NDX, SMH, AAPL, NFLX, NVDA, and others, tracking also the high-probability setups posted on Saturday. As noted yesterday, the bearish target for SMH has essentially been reached, while the bullish targets for IBIT, ETHA, GLD had been reached as well.

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Tomorrow’s SPX levels are available here. Note how 7,418 acted as precise support and 7476 as resistance today, both were analyzed last night. Levels for QQQ, SMH, NVDA, MU, AMD, AVGO, QCOM, TSM, and the rest of the semiconductor set are also linked below, providing you with objective targets for tomorrow’s session.

Let’s begin.

SPX: On the Edge to Trigger Bearish Momentum

We use daily levels to anticipate short-term moves, weekly levels to navigate price action, and monthly levels to gauge longer-term momentum.

The Central Monthly Level (CML) was touched again today, this is what the chart and levels say:

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