The bearish thesis for the major indices posted on Saturday was confirmed today; the SPX opened below the central daily and weekly levels, setting a bearish momentum right from the start. The daily level (CDL) of 7,657 was lost from the opening and the price found support at 7,596.5, a support layer provided on Friday.

The day was red for semiconductors, but it was not as ugly for the stock market in general. Individual names that I mentioned on Saturday as valid bulls like META, GOOG, and AAPL, showed strength or resilience today. Among the setups highlighted with the highest probability to occur and reach their targets, NFLX and WMT started the week in the expected direction: WMT rallied as anticipated, reaching close to 109.9 🎯 as a weekly target modeled last Friday. That area acted as resistance, and the stock closed up +1.8% for the day. NFLX rallied 3.8% as a high-probability bullish setup, crossing the bullish target of 79.4🎯 and getting very close to 81.1, which was the next weekly bullish target modeled last Friday. Meanwhile, SPX/SPY, DIA, and IWM started the week bearish as anticipated on Saturday 🎯.

Building on last week’s daily notes, I covered how to manage high-probability setups, how to read the setups blueprint, and what to consider when a bullish target closes the day as resistance for longs versus closing as support. The same principle applies to short positions: when a target holds as support by the end of the day, contrasted with when a level is breached and closes the day as resistance after previously being support. We closed the week with seven key learnings included in the S/R levels edition, get access to these guides using real life charts:

Last week, we studied how to manage momentum when a bullish probability setup opens with a gap up, as well as how to manage bearish probability setups when the price opens with a gap down using AMD and DIA as case studies.

Today, we are looking at AMD again, specifically the opposite scenario: how to manage a bullish setup when it opens below the central weekly level (CWL). Again, please make sure to review last week’s guidance, the content goes straight to the point, and uses real life charts.

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Today’s Agenda

• Managing Setups Below CWL: AMD Case Study

• Daily Plan for SPX, ES=F

• Combined Levels for Tomorrow: , SPX, ES=F, NVDA, AVGO, AMD and MU

• Watchlist Tracker

Let’s begin.

Managing Setups below CWL

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Every week I post the combination of technical analysis and modeled support and resistance levels for the week ahead, this approach allows us to find the best opportunities in the market by anticipating direction and then destination.

Technical indicators provide direction, while the modeled support and resistance levels provide destination. I use a third tool, the Momentum Map, which helps us understand which stage of the cycle each ticker is in. Those three elements form the foundation of the Setups Blueprint, where all the stocks, indices, and ETFs from our watchlist are mapped, each with their market condition (bullish or bearish), price targets, invalidation levels, and risk-to-reward ratio. In that blueprint, I highlight my preferred setups based on their probabilities of success.

Last week was choppy for the market as anticipated. I highlighted declines in the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones as high-probability setups, using SPY, SPX, and DIA as the instruments to set the targets. DIA reached the bearish target of 522 for a -2.2% move 🎯, and SPY hit 761.8 for a -1.1% move 🎯. They actually extended their losses, but I mark the targets officially reached.

Being bearish on the indices doesn’t mean that the entire market will fall; successful traders know that very well. While we were bearish on the indices, individual setups for AMD, AVGO, META, SPCX, and VXX were printing reliable bullish signals. They reached the targets I anticipated for the week in this publication as follows: AMD easily made it to the $504 target for a +5.5% move 🎯; AVGO to $373 for a +4.2% move 🎯; META to $660 for a +7.1% move 🎯; SPCX to $154.1 for a +4.2% move 🎯; and VXX to $18.5 for a +4.4% move 🎯.

With that said, my Setups Blueprint is neutral, featuring both bullish and bearish setups. There are also several other advantages to this specific approach:

All the tickers are analyzed every week. So, whether you trade the SPX and Futures only, DIA, and QQQ only, NVDA and TSLA only, or AMD and PLTR, they are permanently analyzed so you can focus on the ones of your preference from this watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

The next advantage of this approach is capital protection and risk-to-reward analysis. Every setup has an invalidation level; if that level is lost, momentum could be flipping from bullish to bearish, or vice-versa. This week, the capital protection references for XOM, GLD, and WMT kept risk limited to -0.7% average for three tickers while gains averaged +4.1% for seven tickers.

Last but not least, I post daily market updates. This week was dedicated to providing guidance on how to use this information, and these publications are a must-read to get the key learnings and guidelines:

Unlock this objective approach by upgrading to the paid plan. Subscribers also get access to educational content and Market Intelligence analyses, including three core publications every week (Friday, Saturday, and Wednesday) covering indices, megacaps, ETFs, and daily updates tracking the watchlist with daily levels for the SPX and ES=F. Everything is available at smartreversals.com. Zero gut feeling. Everything is specific.

Paid subscribers can download my two ebooks on technical analysis from the Market Intelligence Collection, and can submit their individual stocks in the chat every weekend for a customized analysis of weekly support and resistance levels.

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Next week, I’ll navigate the new setups with you using my daily notes, which also include key daily levels for the SPX and ES=F. This is likely to be a volatile week. The Fed will decide whether there will be a rate hike or not, and most importantly, the market will pay serious attention to the words of the Fed Chair.

This is very similar to an earnings call. The Earnings Per Share and revenue beat are important, but the forward guidance provided by the CEO is what truly drives the stock, which is why a company may sell off even after beating earnings if guidance falls short. The same dynamic applies this Wednesday. A hawkish speech will be more bearish than an eventual rate hike itself, which, by the way, currently carries official rate hike odds of 86%.

As of today, the overall market has been weak, though semiconductors, select technology names, and energy managed to stay green during the last five trading days.

On the other hand, a significant number of Hindenburg Omen bearish signals have been triggered over the past few weeks (not one, not two, but nine) adding significant pressure to current price action. We will study what this signal is and which price action elements synchronize with it.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Bitcoin.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

• Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Let’s begin.

SPX: Hindenburg Omen Cluster - Correction Imminent?

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Another highly successful week has come to a close. The high-probability setups posted last week played out with an impressive success rate, hitting our price targets with high accuracy:

• DIA: Reached the bearish target of 522 for a -2.2% move 🎯

• SPY: Crossed the bearish target of 761.8 for a -1.1% move 🎯

• AMD: Comfortably exceeded the 504 target for a +5.5% move 🎯

• VXX: Spiked well above 18.5 for a +4.4% move 🎯

• AVGO: Touched 373 for a +4.2% move 🎯

• META: Reached the bullish target of 660 for a +7.1% move 🎯

• SPCX: Made it to 154.1 for a +4.2% move 🎯

• XOM: Invalidated the bearish thesis by recovering 161.3 (a +1.1% move)

• WMT: Invalidated the bullish thesis by losing 106.4 (a -0.7% move)

• GLD: Stayed below the invalidation level (-0.3% move)

Performance Summary:

• 7 successful trades reached their targets, averaging a 4.1% gain.

• 3 invalidated trades breached their invalidation levels for an average move of 0.7%.

Unlock Next Week’s Levels

Unlock the levels for next week covering our entire watchlist. These levels are modeled fresh every Friday to give you the precise information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday.

You do not have to wait for the opening bell to map out your plan or choose which securities to trade. Here, you have the exact distances to essential levels and setups indicating whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, allowing you to make calm, informed decisions ahead of Monday morning.

Our Core Watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

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What You Get as a Paid Subscriber

When you upgrade to the paid plan, you unlock three core publications each week, along with exclusive member benefits:

→Wednesday: Market Intelligence and fundamental analyses.

→Friday: Support and Resistance Levels for the week ahead.

→Saturday: The Weekly Compass, featuring an in-depth technical immersion.

In addition to our weekly publishing schedule, your membership includes three immediate advantages:

→ Instant Ebook Access: Download my two foundational technical analysis ebooks directly from the Market Intelligence Library. (click here)

→Daily SPX & ES=F Levels: Receive daily levels assessing short-term momentum and potential reversal signals.

→Customized Level Modeling: Every Sunday, submit your watchlist stocks in the paid subscriber chat. Their specific institutional levels are modeled for the week ahead and published directly to the site.

All content is available at SmartReversals.com.

Perks for ALL Paid Subscribers:

When you upgrade to the paid plan, you unlock two immediate advantages:

Instant access to download my two ebooks on technical analysis. Includes all my Market Intelligence and educational library.

Customized Level Modeling: Every Sunday, you can post the stocks of your interest in the paid subscribers chat, and their specific WEEKLY institutional levels are modeled for the week ahead and published directly to the paid site. (Founding Members Receive the customized MONTHLY levels as well)

Founding Members

Subscribers in this tier receive a daily downloadable file at 6PM featuring key levels for all tickers in our regular watchlist, plus an expanded watchlist covering 40 additional popular tickers. This package includes a comprehensive daily market analysis, an expanded Watchlist Tracker, and SmartScreener results delivered every Sunday to prepare you for the week ahead. The customized Weekly and Monthly Levels are downloadable. All of this is updated in one place: the Founding Members Exchange Hub.

Next week brings the FOMC meeting, where the Federal Reserve will decide whether to raise or maintain interest rates amid persistent inflation and resilient labor data. Higher or sustained interest rates make bonds and fixed-income assets more attractive to institutional investors, which can trigger market turbulence. That is why using clear references to set targets and protect capital, like these levels, is essential.

Keep in mind that ES Futures are losing bullish momentum by dropping below the 5week moving average and printing a bearish MACD crossover. Similar setups have been followed by increased volatility, with the price eventually pulling back toward the 20-week moving average. This week, only the 10-week moving average was tested. The weekly support and resistance levels for the futures are also listed below, along with their bearish targets if the central zone is lost. Additionally, the daily plan for Monday is included here for SPX and ES=F with narrower levels.

Today’s Content:

• Key Learnings This Week

• Weekly Levels for the Watchlist

• Monthly Levels for the Watchlist

• Combined Levels

• Daily Plan for Monday (SPX and ES=F)

Key Learnings This Week

We examined real-life charts and introduced the daily Watchlist Tracker, giving paid subscribers a live view of our watchlist status. This institutional-level approach pays off: a 7:3 success rate speaks for itself, and the daily educational content served as reliable guidance. We will do the same thing next week.

Throughout the week, we studied how to utilize the Setups Blueprint and the modeled support and resistance levels that drive these targets, here are the links to three publications to bookmark:

7 Key takeaways to bookmark and have next to your screen include:

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U.S. stocks fell for a fourth consecutive session today as a fresh spike in crude oil prices and jumping Treasury yields weighed on investor sentiment.

The August Producer Price Index (PPI) report revealed wholesale inflation grew by 0.4% month-over-month and 5.4% year-over-year. The combination of stubborn inflation and triple-digit oil prices (CL=F: $103.9) fueled bets that the FED will raise interest rates next week, with the current probability sitting at 71%.

Adding pressure to the market, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates by 25 basis points today to control inflation pressures.

Yesterday I noted that the bearish move was unlikely complete for the SPX, considering a potential gap fill attempt to 7,667. The Central Daily Level (CDL) for today was also shared so they would help to validate direction, indicating that momentum would be bearish below 7,640.4 and bouncy if that level was recovered. If not, 7,603.9 and 7,583.6 were bearish targets posted last night, and today’s price action indeed moved between those two levels since the CDL was lost.

The decline in the SPX is playing out as anticipated in last week’s Weekly Compass 🎯, currently down 1.6% for the week, while DIA stands as another bearish setup cumulating a 2.5% weekly loss 🎯.

Tomorrow brings CPI news at 8:30 AM New York time. A series of indecisive daily candles for the SPX has shaped the weekly decline, the setup remains bearish, and the move does not look complete. The essential levels to watch tomorrow are detailed in the daily plan below, including the Daily, Weekly and Monthly levels. The daily levels help navigate the weekly ones by providing narrower zones where institutional algorithms have proven to react, they also provide early warnings.

Daily Levels in Action:

Reviewing this week’s four-day price action for the SPX, when it lost the Central Daily Level (every day so far), the price has moved in between the lower levels symmetrically. It is clear how institutional algorithms react to these levels. Premium subscribers receive these lines at market close for the next day, and the price levels for tomorrow are provided below.

The chart shows clearly how once the CDL is lost, the support lines shared in advance act as key lines for institutional algorithms, price action and numbers always tell the true, the chart sows the lines that have framed price action every day.

We have studied this week how to use the Setups Blueprint posted every Saturday, it includes using levels/price targets, risk-reward ratios, momentum status, and invalidation levels for all the tickers in our watchlist, the educational content posted this week is here, and today we continue with a third installment focused on the daily dashboard or watchlist tracker posted in the daily market updates.

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Today’s Agenda

• How to use the Watchlist Tracker

• Daily Plan for SPX and ES=F

• Combined Levels for Tomorrow

Let’s begin.

Using the Watchlist Tracker

When you track the SPX alone, it is a completely valid strategy. Focusing exclusively on an individual stock like NVDA, AAPL, or MSFT is also a valid approach. However, there are two distinct implications to this: the index may experience choppy price action without a clear direction, or an individual stock might move against expectations.

This highlights the primary advantage of having all the securities on our watchlist in a single, unified view: you can see daily changes, accumulated weekly changes, and the relative distance to the Central Weekly Levels and Central Monthly Levels for each ticker that we track.

Key Advantages of the Tracker

• Comprehensive Market Visibility: Having a broad, daily view allows you to make informed decisions not just for a single stock, but across all securities on our watchlist. You can identify the main movers of the day/week and assess opportunities.

• Structural Market Clarity: By evaluating securities against their Central Weekly Levels and Central Monthly Levels, you gain a clear picture of each asset’s underlying structure in a single view. As shown below, the anticipated negative moves SPX and DIA are playing out as expected; the loss of both the Central Weekly Levels and Central Monthly Levels validates that bearish momentum remains firmly in control, as the bullish structure continues in play for AMD, META, TSLA, SPCX, and the ones highlighted.

• Spotting Divergences and Velocity: Conversely, other securities move with greater velocity or in the opposite direction. For instance, I anticipated VXX to act as a bullish security this week. As seen below, it has rallied 6.5% so far. It is close to reclaiming its Central Monthly Level, which could flip structural momentum and signal higher risk for the wider stock market if recovered.

• Managing Invalidations and Reversals: XOM is the best case for this week, the bearish reversal has been postponed and the structure is getting bullish, the fact that the stock is significantly above both its CWL and CML suggest caution before shorting it blindly.

• Instant Risk Assessment: Having indices, mega-caps, ETFs, and multi-sector stocks organized in one dashboard lets you instantly spot which assets have lost structural momentum for traders and long-term investors through the loss of their Central Monthly Levels, while simultaneously tracking shorter term behavior relative to their Central Weekly Levels.

The dashboard is here:

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Last Saturday, I posted the strongest setups on our watchlist, and the analysis continues to prove its worth by delivering solid results. My bearish setups for SPX and DIA continue to play out, with weekly declines of -1.1% 🎯 and -1.8% 🎯 respectively. Remember: staying bearish on the indices does not mean there are no bullish setups in the market. The bullish opportunities highlighted last Saturday for META, AMD, and VXX continue gaining traction with weekly gains of +6% 🎯, +9% 🎯, and +3% 🎯 so far.

Yesterday, I started a series of educational guides on how to navigate these setups. We studied how the Setups Blueprint posted every weekend works regarding the information it contains, such as price targets based on modeled levels where institutional algorithms react, invalidation levels, risk-to-reward ratios, and criteria for setting stop losses. In case you missed it, the publication is here:

Today, we will continue this series for managing high-probability setups by covering entry points, actions to take when a target is reached, how to read price action, and trailing stops.

When you subscribe to the paid plan, you unlock all the content at SmartReversals.com, including the setups blueprint and the support and resistance levels for the week in play, all the market intelligence and educational library that includes special technical studies and fundamental analyses. The Market Intelligence has my two ebooks on Technical Analysis available for paid subscribers.

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Today’s Agenda

• Managing High-Probability Setups: AMD, META, SPX, DIA, SPCX, AVGO and more.

• Watchlist Tracker

• Daily plan for SPX and ES=F with Combined Levels

The watchlist tracker is a new feature that helps map price action for every ticker in our watchlist effectively, looping when a ticker is overperforming or underperforming during the week. The tracker includes key individual levels.

Let’s begin.

Managing High Probability Setups - AMD Case Study:

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In last Saturday's Weekly Compass, I anticipated a high probability of a bearish reversal in the SPX and a decline in the Dow Jones ETF (DIA), alongside bullish moves for SPCX, AVGO, and AMD, plus a spike in VXX. Today, those setups played out as expected: SPX (-0.58%), DIA (-1.1% reaching $528 🎯), SPCX (+3.7% to $154.1 🎯), AVGO (+2.9% touching 372.9 🎯), AMD (+5.9% crossing $503 as bullish target 🎯), and VXX (+1.5% 🎯).

The market is highly dynamic, being bearish on the SPX doesn’t mean that every single ticker in the stock market will fall, every ticker follows its own setup, providing both bullish and bearish opportunities, and that neutrality is what I analyze having a watchlist with indices, futures, megacaps, and high volume ETFs that cover different sectors. Today, we will review the Setups Blueprint that is published each Saturday and do a recap on how to best utilize it, including the price levels modeled in advance every Friday for the week ahead, and used to set targets, as the ones mentioned above.

It’s just Monday and five of the high probability setups are playing out reaching weekly targets, the Weekly Compass is here:

When you subscribe to the paid plan, you unlock all the content at SmartReversals.com, including the setups blueprint and the support and resistance levels for the week in play, all the market intelligence and educational library that includes special technical studies and fundamental analyses. The Market Intelligence has my two ebooks on Technical Analysis available for paid subscribers.

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Today’s Agenda:

• How to use the Setups Blueprint

• Tracking our Watchlist

• Daily SPX and ES=F Levels for tomorrow

Let’s begin.

Setups Blueprint: All the regular watchlist in one dashboard with price targets and invalidation levels

The Weekly Compass provide the technical context for the SPX and the market in general by analyzing breadth, volatility, momentum indicators and reversal risks. Within that core publication, there is a section named the Setups Blueprint, where you can find the condition for each ticker (bullish or bearish), price targets, invalidation levels, and the risk/reward ratio.

Here is the Setups Blueprint for this week, where the decline in the SPX🎯 and DIA🎯 was anticipated, along with the bullish moves for AVGO🎯, SPCX🎯, AMD🎯, and VXX🎯:

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I began investing and trading with real dedication and discipline in 2016. That is already 10 years ago, when I started buying stocks the way many people do: reading the news, trying to build a bullish case with fundamentals, and listening to expert opinions. I always liked candlesticks as a visual representation of price action, and back then, I studied several books on the subject. Because no single technical indicator works in isolation, I learned about oscillators (Stochastic, RSI), Bollinger Bands, moving averages, and measuring my performance against the SPX. Back then, I focused heavily on the FAANGs (if you remember that acronym, congratulations; staying in this arena this long puts you far above the average investor or trader: Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google).

The year 2017 looks easy on a long-term chart, but back then, the rapid swings whenever Trump tweeted or spoke were hard to manage, the market was getting used to it. The conventional approach of candlesticks and oscillators helped me navigate entries and exits when the day closed, but not the sudden intraday swings triggered by a tweet about “Rocket Man” (when North Korea was launching missile tests over Japan), or sudden statements about job creation and bullish news that sparked rapid rallies. That was when I started analyzing support and resistance levels to pinpoint where price could bounce or reverse, but most importantly, where I needed to protect capital or gains during an unexpected swing.

I learned the hard way that algorithms are programmed to hunt stop losses. I used to place stop losses for long positions directly at key levels rather than below them, only to watch them get triggered right before price bounced back. I also learned the importance of trailing stop losses upward. When price reached resistance, it could reverse rapidly, as it is happening today (happened with TSLA this week once the gap we were targeting was filled) and human nature tempts you to wait for a bounce or wanting more. Or, once you hit a psychological target in profit or account balance, you resist exiting below that peak. That hesitation usually ends up being an expensive mistake when you finally capitulate and sell too late. It is human, it has happened to all of us.

Because of this, I began working with structured scenarios. Using predefined levels, I mapped out exactly how my capital, gains, and losses would look if a stock or ETF moved toward specific price targets. It left me far better prepared psychologically. That is also why I post the Support and Resistance Levels every Friday for the week ahead, along with the monthly levels and percentage variances, so the impact on any position can be calculated in advance considering each person’s capital. The ones for next week and September are here for the SPX, NDX, futures, key ETFs like SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM, megacaps like NVDA, AAPL, AMZN, PLTR, AMD, metals, and crypto ETFs.

Returning to the timeline, 2017 ended well, but 2018 arrived with a sharp selloff in February. The Dow Jones dropped 7% in two days as the 10-year Treasury yield spiked to a four-year high. That was a swift flush for late buyers chasing the 2017 rally; conditions were overbought, and the macro backdrop triggered the reset.

Price eventually recovered. The uptrend resumed in April, new all-time highs arrived by August, and September bypassed the typical volatility seen in midterm election years. Everything seemed calm until Tariff War 1.0 escalated. Meanwhile, the rate hikes that started in March continued, despite heavy political pressure on Jay Powell. By year-end, the federal funds rate had climbed from 1.25%–1.50% up to 2.25%–2.50%. That tightening cycle, combined with a government shutdown, set the stage for a late-year bear market with a -20% correction in the SPX.

Navigating my first official bear market taught me how psychological denial blinds traders when technicals are clearly overbought. I also learned the significance of unfilled price gaps at all time highs: the July 9, 2018 gap on the SPX at 2,764 finally filled after a clean reversal on September 21, when the daily candle breached the upper Bollinger Band alongside a clear bearish RSI divergence.

Like 2018, midterm election cycles often bring rate shifts and evolving central bank dynamics. The parallels to our current market setup in 2026 are striking, especially when looking at the technical conditions we have been tracking.

Charts do not repeat exactly the same, but technical patterns do, choppy price action is here to stay, the SPX is near all time highs, rapid reversals are happening when the bullish targets are reached.

With that said, staying disciplined with the process, analyzing technical conditions, adhering to modeled levels, monitoring the 59% probability of a September rate hike, and staying alert to broader breadth deterioration will all be essential to navigating the days ahead.

Below is the 5 day change in the S&P 500. The most notable bullish moves came from semiconductors, while four of the “Magnificent Seven” fell or closed flat (MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, AAPL). Several stocks posting gains are either recovering from oversold conditions (such as META, WMT, and ORCL) or bouncing after weeks of steady declines (like MU, INTC, and AMD).

Is everything bearish? No. Disciplined technical analysis and an active watchlist consistently provide opportunities even in choppy markets.

Last week, the anticipated setups for WMT🎯, SPCX🎯, SMH🎯, AAPL🎯, IWM🎯, NFLX🎯, and SPX🎯 averaged a weekly gain of 3% each. Only two setups moved differently than expected, but by using stop-loss references, our support and resistance levels helped protect capital on those two defensive plays (XOM and AMZN). That marks a 7:2 win ratio during a week when the SPX closed virtually flat at +0.1%. And even better, the setups blueprint shows the price levels for all the watchlist, if you are a TSLA, NVDA, or IBIT permanent enthusiast, the setups for all this watchlist is presented below:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

Unlock this objective approach by upgrading to the paid plan. Subscribers also get access to educational content and Market Intelligence analyses, fundamentals, and how to get the most out of the high-probability setups. Everything is available at smartreversals.com. Zero gut feeling. Everything is specific.

Subscribe now

My complete Market Intelligence and educational content is here, paid subscribers have access to all the linked content and my two downloadable eBooks on technical indicators, they include real life charts.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

• Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Let’s begin.

SPX: Is a Correction Coming?

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To avoid premature moves, I rely on daily levels to validate each thesis. For today, 7,730 served as the anticipated central daily level (CDL) dictating bullish or bearish momentum. Once price broke below that level, it pushed directly into the confluence of the 7,704 daily level and the 7,707 central weekly level, where the index found support. Anyway the weekly structure lost momentum as we will analyze in the paid content.

Among the high-probability setups:

Every Saturday I post the strongest setups combining technical analysis and modeled support and resistance levels. These are the results for this week:

• 🎯 WMT reached 108 (+4% move).

• 🎯 SPCX reached 149 (+5.6% move).

• 🎯 SMH validated the bearish thesis by breaking 555 and moving toward 538 (-2% move); indecisive price action on the 4H and daily timeframes on Tuesday signaled a reversal was coming.

• 🎯 AAPL reached the extended bullish target of 330.5 (+3.5% move), after which the level triggered an institutional algorithmic rejection with precision.

• 🎯 IWM reached our bearish target of 292 and extended the move to 289 (-1.7% move).

• 🎯 SPY breached the bearish target of 762.5, securing a -1% move.

• 🎯 NFLX reached 83.1 (+1.7%).

• ❌ XOM opened the week above 159, invalidating the bearish thesis.

• ❌ AMZN: The central weekly level of 263 provided capital protection on Monday morning during regular market hours; price moved toward the bearish target of 250 before bouncing to fill the gap.

That represents 7 successful setups versus 2 invalidations for the week. The combination of technical indicators shared transparently in the Weekly Compass, paired with our modeled levels based on price action, multi-timeframe confluence, and key support and resistance zones, continues to prove effective even in choppy markets.

Unlock the levels, analysis, and setups for next week plus the daily updates by becoming a paid subscriber.

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In this market, once a target level is reached, stop-losses (now functioning to lock in gains) should be trailed closer to current price action.

The setups blueprint published every week highlights my top picks. However, if you are trading a specific stock, index, or ETF, such as META, IBIT or TSLA, which are tickers that I mentioned favored a bullish move(In the case of TSLA for a gap fill only), you can still leverage the blueprint, it provides complete setups across our entire coverage watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

The 4-hour chart shows how these levels work as reversal or consolidation zones; the lines posted here were modeled the previous Friday ahead of the week. Interestingly, the same pattern from last week is repeating today, and there is a gap below. The CWL for next week is below with all its support and resistance levels for the SPX, SPY, ES=F, and every security on our watchlist. If you trade TSLA, MSFT, IBIT, VXX, or another from the list above, the levels for those securities for next week and the month of September are here.

Today’s Content:

• Weekly Levels for the Watchlist

• Monthly Levels for the Watchlist

• Combined Levels

• Daily Plan for Monday (SPX and ES=F)

Let’s begin.

What You Get as a Paid Subscriber

When you upgrade to the paid plan, you unlock three core publications each week, along with exclusive member benefits:

→Wednesday: Market Intelligence and fundamental analyses.

→Friday: Support and Resistance Levels for the week ahead.

→Saturday: The Weekly Compass, featuring an in-depth technical immersion.

In addition to our weekly publishing schedule, your membership includes three immediate advantages:

→ Instant Ebook Access: Download my two foundational technical analysis ebooks directly from the Market Intelligence Library. (click here)

→Daily SPX & ES=F Levels: Receive daily levels assessing short-term momentum and potential reversal signals.

→Customized Level Modeling: Every Sunday, submit your watchlist stocks in the paid subscriber chat. Their specific institutional levels are modeled for the week ahead and published directly to the site.

All content is available at SmartReversals.com.

WEEKLY LEVELS

These levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.

For next week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August will be released, and its to be seen if reduction in oil prices have reduced the CPI.

Tickers highlighted in red like TSLA have a lot of work to do to flip bearish momentum, today’s move gained traction in many megacaps:

Read more

The probabilities for a rate hike in the next FOMC meeting fell to 50% today, from 63% yesterday, a major change that fueled the stock market.

On the macro site, the ADP private sector payrolls report showed an increase of 38,000 jobs in August, coming in below estimates and providing further evidence of a cooling labor market, a factor that also favors continuation in interest rates instead of a rate hike.

With that said, the rally left a new gap open for the SPX at 7,681 and for the Dow Jones at 53,227; bad news became good news and the coming price action has a new magnet below that we have studied is extremely likely to be filled.

Yesterday, 7,660 was set as the central daily level for the ES=F today, meaning that the price was bullish above it, and bearish below it, the number was the same for the SPX. The bullish move came with conviction recovering the Central Weekly Level (CWL), suggesting a flip in momentum and given the gap, likely continuation of choppy price action.

Let’s don’t fight price action, but let’s be aware of the implied risk of having two magnets below the current move; these magnets belong to the SP500 and the Dow Jones, we’re not talking about PLTR, MU, SNDK, or a micro-cap. For that reason risk awareness is prudent.

From our watchlist, the week is about to end with several moves that were anticipated, like the bullish resolution for TSLA, SPCX, META, IBIT, AAPL, NFLX, SLV, and GLD. I’d like to make a special mention for WMT gaining +5%.

Having a watchlist of megacaps and high volume ETFs with selected setups for the week helps long-term investors and traders outperform the market. I’ve been bullish on the tickers mentioned, cautious on the indices, and bearish on specific names, while keeping others on watch for a breakout.

Today’s agenda

• The Most Important Chart Today

• Daily Plan for SPX and ES=F

• Combined levels (including daily levels) for SPX, ES=F, AMZN, TSLA, MSFT, AAPL, NVDA, GOOG, and META.

Upgrade to the paid plan and unlock the daily updates and 3 core publications every week. It’s Labor Day Weekend, don’t miss out!

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The Most Important Chart: Key Resistance Tested

Bullish continuation depends on holding the central daily levels below, but also on breaking through this resistance:

Read more

The SPX bounced today following oversold conditions and the indecisive price action (daily doji) observed yesterday. The bearish target for the week at 7,642.7 was breached, and then, the Central Daily Level that was modeled yesterday to consider bullish or bearish momentum was smoothly reclaimed today at the open. The SP500 opened below 7,635.4 and steadily gained upside momentum, moving toward the next bullish target of 7,659 before approaching with 7,681 to the next modeled level of 7,687. Price action printed a technical bounce, but tomorrow we will see how sustainable this move is by holding tomorrow’s central daily level (CDL and posted below), especially given that today’s rejection occurred right at a key monthly level for September. The SP500 still has work to do to sustain a push higher.

The bounce today was also aided by a tag of the 7,638 annual zone highlighted last night, which represents a normal consolidation area before any potential bearish continuation.

On the macro side, the ADP National Employment Report showed private employers added 38,000 jobs in August, falling short of the 47,000 estimate. This cooled expectations of aggressive upcoming interest rate hikes. Anyway, the probability of a rate hike at the upcoming September Fed meeting remains at 62%. That probability is still elevated; it simply ticked down a few percentage points from yesterday’s peak of 67%.

Today, technology was muted, with the tech ETF (XLK) closing flat at +0.02%. Instead, financials, communication services, materials, healthcare, and energy drove the bounce across the S&P. Tomorrow, the market may struggle again given the relative weakness in tech, with the NDX gaining a marginal +0.23% gain today. The semiconductor sector gained 0.96%, led by MU and NVDA. We have to see tomorrow what is the actual move for Broadcom (AVGO), which so far is dropping -1.6% following its earnings report. The daily levels for AVGO are below to manage price action tomorrow.

On Saturday I described the bullish case for META, AAPL was a high probable bullish setup, and the bullish case for TSLA was documented. Tomorrow will be crucial to assess if momentum continues given that the bullish levels for the week were reached with indecision in daily and 4H timeframes. MSFT on the other hand is falling -3% this week, consistent with the main bearish condition described in the Weekly Compass. AMZN on the other hand breached its central weekly level against expectations, but once again, it printed daily indecision at the 50DMA, its set of levels is also below in case that a bounce occurs as considered.

Today, we will review the status of several high-probability setups highlighted in the Weekly Compass. One of them is NFLX, which continues to bounce, gaining 15% since the bullish call a couple of weeks ago. That setup arrived right as the stock sold off during earnings, when I shared educational content with paid subscribers on managing overextended moves using a specific short term timeframe.

The divergence is intriguing for this week: The SPX and IWM were bearish for the week, while some tech giants were forming bouncing setups. That’s investing and trading, you must be neutral when analyzing each ticker.

Today, I will cover the charts with fundamental metrics designed to help long-term investors evaluate emerging opportunities over the coming weeks, particularly given the seasonal volatility that typically accompanies this month. As illustrated in the Weekly Compass last Saturday, September is the weakest month of the year, and that seasonality intensifies during midterm years based on 40-year historical patterns.

Today’s Agenda:

• Fundamental and Technical Patterns Combined for MSFT, AAPL, NFLX, MU, AMD, TSLA

• Daily Plan for SPX, ES=F

• Daily Combined Levels for SPX, ES=F, all the magnificent seven, and AVGO.

What You Get as a Paid Subscriber

When you upgrade to the paid plan, you unlock three core publications each week, along with exclusive member benefits:

→Wednesday: Market Intelligence and fundamental analyses.

→Friday: Support and Resistance Levels for the week ahead.

→Saturday: The Weekly Compass, featuring an in-depth technical immersion.

In addition to our weekly publishing schedule, your membership includes three immediate advantages:

→ Instant Ebook Access: Download my two foundational technical analysis ebooks directly from the Market Intelligence Library. (click here)

→Daily SPX & ES=F Levels: Receive daily levels assessing short-term momentum and potential reversal signals.

→Customized Level Modeling: Every Sunday, submit your watchlist stocks in the paid subscriber chat. Their specific institutional levels are modeled for the week ahead and published directly to the site.

All content is available at SmartReversals.com.

Subscribe to the paid plan!

Subscribe now

Let’s begin.

Combining Fundamental Metrics and Technical Analysis

This approach helps to determine longer term opportunities, let’s begin with MSFT:

Read more

The SPX is down -1% so far this week, losing its central weekly level of 7,707.1 as anticipated on Saturday and breaching the bearish target of 7,642. The index is currently testing the critical 7,638 zone; if it isn’t reclaimed quickly, the downward move could gain momentum. Meanwhile, the VIX, which was hovering at year-to-date lows and primed for a bounce, has rallied +13% this week alone.

Once the ES=F lost the anticipated Central Daily level of 7,700 overnight, the bearish continuation was triggered to start the month. The E-mini futures found temporary morning support at 7,651 before breaking lower to test the final line of daily defense at 7,627. All of these levels were modeled yesterday in advance, and the price action confirms how institutional algorithms react to them. Once futures broke their CDL, the anticipated SPX daily support levels came into play during market hours: 7,668 and 7,635 framed price action from the open until 2 PM, when that final daily support of 7,635 broke down and flipped to resistance.

Much like the SPX, the Weekly Compass pointed to a high-probability move for the IWM. While we initially looked for a visit toward 290.6 (-1.1%), today’s price action pushed even lower, nearing 289 for a -1.7% weekly decline so far.

The Weekly Compass is available here for anyone who hasn’t read it yet:

This is a week where the Magnificent Seven could play a reversal role in a weak market. On Saturday, we highlighted mixed setups across the group (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOG, AMZN, META, TSLA). We are already seeing significant divergence among them, including yesterday’s +5.5% surge in TSLA (which consolidated today), a +2.6% rally in AAPL today, and resilience from META as it continues to hold its demand zone bouncing from there one more time.

My bearish thesis on MSFT continues to play out with a -2.4% move, while GOOG and AMZN have broken below key weekly levels, shifting constructive structures into potential bearish continuations. That said, both could find a floor at any point: GOOG printed a doji at weekly support today, and AMZN did the same right at its 50-day moving average.

The SPX is actively working toward a gap-fill, while the remaining Magnificent Seven names could bounce at any moment, just as TSLA and AAPL did this week.

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Today’s Agenda:

• Daily Plan for SPX and ES=F

• Daily Plan for AAPL, TSLA, GOOG, AMZN, and META

• Combined Levels for SPX, ES=F, and all of the Magnificent Seven

Daily Plan SPX and ES=F

Read more

The U.S. stock indexes closed lower on Monday, August 31, 2026, as geopolitical tensions flared and oil prices surged. Despite the daily losses, both the SPX and the NDX secured winning months for August with +2.6% and +4.2% respectively.

Risk appetite came under pressure after U.S. forces conducted military strikes against Iranian rocket launchers along the Strait of Hormuz; the jump in crude prices reinforced fears of inflation, compounding the hawkish sentiment left behind by the Fed chair on Jackson Hole on Friday. Last Saturday we studied in the Weekly Compass the 57% probability for a rate hike this September, today the probability sits at 65%.

Since today is the end of the month, it’s time to update the monthly levels for September. That is our focus today. Let’s remember that the monthly levels are essential for both investors and traders, since they speak to a longer-term price structure; we have learned from March 2026 and 2025 how the price can be very volatile when that level is lost.

The monthly levels below are updated for our watchlist. If you invest or trade in some of these securities, this information is for you.

Our Core Watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Unlock this information by upgrading your subscription to the paid plan!

Subscribe now

What You Get as a Paid Subscriber

When you upgrade to the paid plan, you unlock three core publications each week, along with exclusive member benefits:

→Wednesday: Market Intelligence and fundamental analyses.

→Friday: Support and Resistance Levels for the week ahead.

→Saturday: The Weekly Compass, featuring an in-depth technical immersion.

In addition to our weekly publishing schedule, your membership includes three immediate advantages:

→ Instant Ebook Access: Download my two foundational technical analysis ebooks directly from the Market Intelligence Library. (click here)

→Daily SPX & ES=F Levels: Receive daily levels assessing short-term momentum and potential reversal signals.

→Customized Level Modeling: Every Sunday, submit your watchlist stocks in the paid subscriber chat. Their specific institutional levels are modeled for the week ahead and published directly to the site.

All content is available at SmartReversals.com.

Today’s Content:

• Monthly Levels

• Daily Plan for the SPX and ES=F

• Combined Levels for SPX, ES=F, AAPL, AMZN, TSLA, NVDA, META, GOOG, MSFT

Let’s begin.

MONTHLY LEVELS

The Dow Jones, Small Caps, and very important, the semiconductor sector are all showing weakness by the loss of this level, as seen in the red/blue column on the right of the table. The SPX and NDX are not too far above this key level.

Read more

The S&P 500 is heading into a turbulent seasonal month. Over the last 40 years, the SPX has seen a positive close in September just 48% of the time. This is well below the 72% historical positive average that I mention as the benchmark based on the last 70 years; anything notably above or below that reference gains relevance. Worth noting as well, the average move for September over the past 40 years has been -0.84%.

A 48% win rate is a significant deviation to consider, and its relevance increases when you see that August is closing in the green this year. When I analyzed the years individually, many of the green Septembers were preceded by a red August, and vice versa, meaning that the window for a healthy pullback is narrowing. This volatile season is split in two months, with August green the odds of seeing volatility in September increase. See the two charts below:

When analyzing only the midterm years, September has been positive 40% of the time, and the average move has been -2%. This is important context to consider before we study the charts below.

What could drive a negative move in September? When I study statistics, paid subscribers know that I like to understand the context alongside the individual charts, which is precisely what we are doing today.

For general context in this instriduction, consider that just last Thursday, the probability of a rate hike in September was only 35%. After Kevin Warsh’s speech as the new Fed Chair in Jackson Hole, the probability jumped to 57%, as officially reported on FedWatch. That’s a major jump.

Today, we will review additional context regarding our technical charts, as they do not contradict a bearish move in September for several indices and stocks.

Is this a call for a general crash? No. I provide neutral analysis focused on a specific watchlist of megacaps and ETFs. These assets feature high market caps, ensuring this community is familiar with their fundamentals, alongside high daily volume that allows buy and sell orders to be filled quickly. This focus also ensures the availability of leveraged instruments, such as options and leveraged ETFs, for subscribers who use them to navigate the price action of well-known companies, indices or ETFs.

With that said, August has been a strong month for the bullish moves called in this publication with clear timing and price references, the SPX jumped the first days of the month (3rd and 4th of August), but the price has been stagnant in a narrow range for al the rest of the month, in the meantime, bullish calls posted in this publication have paid off in August: SPCX (is up +30% this month 🎯), GLD (+10% 🎯), TSLA (+12% 🎯), NFLX (+14% 🎯), PLTR +51% (navigating the post earnings rally 🎯), and others like Bitcoin 🎯 (up 23% so far in August). I provide the technical case alongside weekly and monthly central levels every week so traders and investors can manage risk according to their respective timeframes.

The week that just ended was choppy. When setups begin to lose their key levels and the bearish theses prevail, it serves as a warning sign. As expected this week according to the Setups Blueprint, AMD and SMH were bearish; both tickers reached their targets of 450 (-4,9% 🎯) and 544 (-2.9% 🎯) respectively this week. The expectation for a bearish move in XOM was validated as well with a -5% weekly move.

The updated setups are here, unlock which tickers are curling down favoring risk for bears, and which ones are likely to continue a bullish pathway using technical indicators and specific price levels. Upgrade to the paid plan here:

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Subscribers also get access to educational content and Market Intelligence analyses, recent and how to get the most out of the high-probability setups or trade ideas posted here. Everything is available at smartreversals.com. Zero gut feeling. Everything is specific.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

• Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Let’s begin.

SPX: Only a 40% Chance of a Bullish September, and the Charts Agree

Here is how you can manage the current conditions:

Read more

• Inflation Focus: Warsh stated that with the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge sitting at 3.7%, prices are running too far above the 2% target. He warned, “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.”

• Monetary Tool Reaffirmation: He clarified that short-term interest rates remain the Fed’s principal tool to combat price pressures, and noted he would be “hard pressed” to describe current financial conditions as restrictive.

• Limiting Forward Guidance: Warsh advocated for a “quieter” central bank that avoids overcommitting to future decisions, stating that excessive forward guidance “risks creating ambiguity in the name of clarity.”

Following the speech, the markets adjusted to the likelihood of higher-for-longer monetary policy, just yesterday, the probability for a rate hike in September was 36%, today the number sits at 57%. Short-term Treasuries sold off sharply, sending the 2-year Treasury yield up 11 basis points to 4.34%. Meanwhile, major stock indices and risk assets like Bitcoin pulled back as profit-taking emerged: The SPX reached the weekly level of 7,763 and the confluence with the daily of 7,772 set enough resistance until 11:30AM, and the index fell straight to 7,700, a daily level posted yesterday in my daily SPX and ES=F levels.

During these days I have emphasized on patience, and the high risks of chasing price action when major gaps are being printed, last night I noted how NVDA rallied while other semiconductor darlings like AMD and MU fell in the red, today the daily level for NVDA (226.4) and for AMD (476.4) worked well as early warnings for a reversal since both stocks fell -4.6% and -2.3% respectively.

Probability of Rate Hike in September during FED Meeting:

Despite of the market reaction, the SPX fell marginally today, -0.25%, and QQQ dropped -0.65%. However, IWM lost -1.35%, and semiconductors (SMH) cratered -3.5%. Last Saturday in the Weekly Compass, I anticipated how critical this week was for semiconductors, and not only because of the NVDA earnings, but because some megacaps were in a make-or-break position. AMD, for example, lost its 20WMA for the first time since September 2025. I noted last week that the trendline was important, but price action suggested bearish continuation. Once again, price action and the conviction in the candle told the truth. The same case applied to SMH. For NVDA, the net weekly move was just +1.3%, printing a large weekly indecisive candle that contains an internal gap at 213.

In choppy tapes like the one observed this week, the support and resistance levels modeled every week work as a reliable frame for upcoming price action and validate or invalidate directional theses coming from technical indicators. The examples below are for IWM and SMH using the 4-hour timeframe. Notice how the CWL modeled the Friday ahead of each week worked as a bullish-above and bearish-below reference, while the support lines below acted as targets and bouncing references. This week, the rally on Thursday failed to make it above the CWL for either IWM or SMH. The indecisive candles added probabilities for a bearish reversal, which proved to be the case today.

These levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning. Always focused on our core watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Upgrade to the paid plan, and unlock the levels for next week and view the complete report showing the distance of each security from its CWL for next week, allowing you to assess risk. With these levels, you can effectively anticipate targets.

What You Get as a Paid Subscriber

When you upgrade to the paid plan, you unlock three core publications each week, along with exclusive member benefits:

→Friday: Support and Resistance Levels for the week ahead.

→Saturday: The Weekly Compass, featuring an in-depth technical immersion.

→Wednesday: Market Intelligence and fundamental analyses.

In addition to our weekly publishing schedule, your membership includes three immediate advantages:

→Daily SPX & ES=F Levels: Receive daily levels assessing short-term momentum and potential reversal signals.

→ Instant Ebook Access: Download my two foundational technical analysis ebooks directly from the Market Intelligence Library. (click here)

→Customized Level Modeling: Every Sunday, submit your watchlist stocks in the paid subscriber chat. Their specific institutional levels are modeled for the week ahead and published directly to the site.

All content is available at SmartReversals.com.

Upgrade here:

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Setups Recap:

Last weekend, using these levels, a bearish reversal was anticipated for XOM, triggered if 164 was lost, the price fell until finding support today at 155 for a -5% move, both levels were modeled last Friday ahead of this week.

The setups blueprint presented bullish setups for NFLX targeting $82 for a +3% move, same for PLTR with a 185 as target for a +3% move, for V the bullish target was 380 for a +2.6% move. The setups include bearish moves for traders who manage out options, leveraged ETFs, or simply shorting: AMD was posted as bearish with 450 as target for a -4.9% move completed on Monday, SMH targeting $544 for a -2.9% move. All these levels were modeled last Friday for this week. Unlock the levels for the week ahead considering all the watchlist mentioned.

Let’s begin.

WEEKLY LEVELS

The highlighted column on the right shows the percentage that each security must gain in order to set bullish momentum references. I have seen in social media a lot of relief after today’s muted move in the SPX, and yes, see in green the SPX, but with very small cushion above the Central Weekly Level for next week.

Small Caps (IWM), Semiconductors (SMH), individual names like TSLA, XOM, and LLY are part of the ones that must jump in te proportion highlighted to validate any potential bounce, but most interestingly, NVDA closed the week in bearish territory when considering the levels; anyway, price action didn’t show conviction as mentioned already.

NFLX continues constructive, GLD and IBIT are in a normal consolidation, AAPL looks promising, while GOOG, META, and AMZN are validating my theses from last week:

Read more

NVDA rallied strongly. The earnings report beat expectations and pushed the price up +8.7%, driven by a morning move that left a consolidation/indecision for the afternoon. Interestingly, MU closed slightly in the red at -0.3% and AMD at -0.9%, failing to participate in the rally, while AVGO and TXN did so with +4.4% and +1.8% respectively.

The SPX gained traction, recovering its central weekly level while facing resistance at the monthly level of 7,729 (proving how these pre-modeled levels can contain moves when institutional algorithms react to them). The SPX managed to fill the gap opened at the bell, so today’s move can be considered clean from a price action perspective. The only risk technical criteria to watch are the resistance at the mentioned monthly level and breadth (stock participation) as described below.

Tomorrow, the Fed Chair speaks in Jackson Hole. Many people are expecting a hawkish tone and a subsequent selloff in the market. Macro indicators do not contradict that thesis, considering sticky and elevated PCE inflation, strong domestic demand and consumer spending, robust business investment, low unemployment and labor market resilience, and very importantly, geopolitical supply shocks.

Those aspects are detailed below for paid members, along with the most important chart of the week.

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Macro indicators suggest a hawkish tone is possible tomorrow, and as mentioned, price action looks okay, no gaps, just indecision in the afternoon. However, the second technical aspect to watch, stock participation brings a key element to consider ahead of Jackson Hole: technology was the only sector moving up today. The rally was driven by NVDA (followed by CRM and the software industry), but megacaps like AMZN, GOOG, and META stayed in the red, along with AMD and MU as mentioned above.

SPX: Daily Gains per Sector:

Today’s Agenda:

• The most important chart to watch today

• Macro considerations

• Daily Plan for the SPX and ES=F

• Combined levels for SPX, ES=F, NVDA, MU, AMD, AVGO, and SMH

The Most Important Chart Today

Read more

Afterward, we will discuss NVIDIA’s earnings and the preliminary market reaction, followed by a general market update. Unlock this content by upgrading to the paid plan.

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What You Get as a Paid Subscriber

When you upgrade to the paid plan, you unlock three core publications each week, along with exclusive member benefits:

→ Wednesday: Market Intelligence and fundamental analyses (today’s content).

→ Friday: Support and Resistance Levels for the week ahead.

→ Saturday: The Weekly Compass, featuring an in-depth technical immersion.

In addition to our weekly publishing schedule, your membership includes three immediate advantages:

→ Instant Ebook Access: Download my two foundational technical analysis ebooks directly from the Market Intelligence Library. (click here)

→ Daily SPX & ES=F Levels: Receive daily levels assessing short-term momentum and potential reversal signals.

→ Customized Level Modeling: Every Sunday, submit your watchlist stocks in the paid subscriber chat. Their specific institutional levels are modeled for the week ahead and published directly to the site.

All content is available at SmartReversals.com.

Let’s begin.

The Four-Phase Market Cycle Framework

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NVDA moved within the range of daily levels posted yesterday, with 210 serving as the Central Daily Level and 213 as the next level if the price stayed above it. There is still work to do to recover the central weekly level and completely flip momentum. However, a positive for the bulls, though it does not guarantee a bullish reaction to the earnings report is that the gaps analyzed in the Weekly Compass at 213 and 208.7 were cleared yesterday with the bearish move, leaving a clean pathway in case of a bullish reaction to tomorrow’s earnings report.

MU also moved constructively. Although still below the central weekly level, it managed to trade between the levels posted yesterday: 911.5 and 935.

Daily and longer-timeframe levels help anticipate the zones where institutional algorithms are likely to react, and today was no different.

When analyzing the SPX, the central daily level (CDL) for today posted yesterday was 7,653, with resistance layers above at 7,669.3 and 7,685.9. With work still required to recover the key weekly level modeled since Friday and posted below, the SPX remains muted this week. Such narrowing price ranges usually precede big moves, and this behavior could continue tomorrow.

The charts present a clear reference of how institutional algorithms react to these levels modeled in advance.

Unlock the daily plan for tomorrow including the updated set of levels by upgrading to the paid plan.

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Daily Plan for Wednesday: SPX, ES=F and Semiconductors

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Daily Moves:

The SPX opened below the CDL of 7,677, the levels below posted this morning were 7,657 and 7,640, both framing the price action for the day.

Daily plan for Aug 25th

The daily levels for the SPX, ES=F, and the zoom in to semiconductors covering MU, NVDA, AVGO, and AMD is here:

Read more

A very important week is starting. The anticipated bearish setup for the SPX materialized last week with a decline in the index. This week, we have Nvidia earnings, a major event that will shake semiconductors and most likely the market in general. Over the weekend, we studied the setups for SMH, NVDA, and AVGO, with notes on Micron (MU) in the Weekly Compass (and many more megacaps), adding price levels where algorithms are likely to react. Just as we saw recently with NVDA finding rejection at 226 in mid August or SMH at 600 last week, both levels were modeled in advance of price action.

Having a specific watchlist covering different sectors and assets (always with high market cap) provides a broad market vision. Just as I anticipated a decline in the SPX 10 days ago, I had previously posted about bounces in Gold, Tesla, and Netflix, and commented on the 4-year Bitcoin cycle. All four of those securities have rallied double digits since the end of July and beginning of August when I published them 🎯.

The key reads for this week are:

• Weekly Compass, featuring charts and setups with price targets for the week:

• Weekly and monthly support and resistance levels for this week:

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The next key read is the special assessment on Gold and Silver posted last Wednesday.

Following that, you will find the personalized weekly support and resistance levels for the securities suggested by paid subscribers in the Customized Levels site:

When you subscribe to the paid plan, you also get access to the Market Intelligence library, where my two eBooks on technical analysis are available for download for paid subscribers.

As a premium subscriber, you also receive daily levels for the SPX and ES=F every day after the market closes so you can plan ahead. For today, the SPX is bearish below the key daily level of 7677.2 (not too far from Friday’s close), aiming at 7657.3 and 7640.1. If the key daily level is recovered, 7694.3 and 7714.2 can set resistance for the index. All of this operates within the broader context of the weekly and monthly levels available in the publications above.

See you this afternoon with the daily SPX and ES=F levels for tomorrow. This week, we will actively track semiconductors, adding NVDA, MU, SMH, and AMD to the daily report. Subscribe!

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The content provided on SmartReveals.com is for educational and informational purposes only. All analyses, research, commentary, and other materials are intended to help users understand financial markets and are based on my own investment journal, investment concepts, and company fundamentals. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and past performance may not be indicative of future results. This content does not constitute investment or any type of advice. The support and resistance levels are modeled references to manage risk and anticipate potential reversals, each investor must assess their own risk tolerance to set stops.

Technical analysis has proven to be a powerful edge for both long-term investors and traders. Over the past weeks, I have provided documented calls with clear references to significant moves in the market, and this week offers a good opportunity to connect precise calls.

1. On July 29th, I called the bullish reversal for Gold with specific levels. While many analysts had been constructing the bull case for months, Gold had already dropped roughly 30% from its peak, a drawdown that even the most committed long-term holders struggle to sit through without a technical framework to lean on. The call was documented, GLD is up +13.9% since my note, the levels were clear, and the reversal played out.

2. On August 1st, I identified the bounce case for SpaceX. The stock is up +26% since, and paid subscribers have received the daily levels for that stock along with my daily note anticipating levels for the SPX and ES=F, giving them a concrete reference before each trading day begins.

3. Last week, I documented the current SPX pullback as a high-probability setup. The index declined -1.4% this week, in line with what was flagged. But here is the part that matters most for how I approach the market:

   1. Not every stock falls when the SPX falls. That is one of the most important edges a focused watchlist provides. Tesla rallied 6% this week. Netflix rallied 2%. Both were called as high probability setups last week, with specific targets and the levels where algorithms were likely to react.

   2. Last week, I noted the importance of the 4 year cycle for Bitcoin, we are in the most bearish moment of the most bearish year, BTC was weak below its 200 MA as documented, but also above is CML of 62,7K.

That is the core of what I do. The market is heavily driven by algorithms, and those algorithms respond to technical levels. When I publish a setup, I am not offering an opinion. I am modeling the specific prices where institutional algorithms are likely to react including targets and invalidation levels, TSLA had bullish target at 366, NFLX 80, DIA had extended bearish targets at 531 and 527, SMH at 600, and the SPX at 7,673. Numbers always tell the facts, they were modeled ahead of the week and set as targets.

Unlock the updated analysis and target levels for next week by subscribing to the paid plan. Premium subscribers receive 3 core publications per week with today’s Weekly Compass as the main one, and the following perks:

1. Daily levels for SPX and ES=F with market observations after the closing bell, so you have your evening to plan your moves.

2. Customized weekly levels for your watchlist, you post your tickers in the paid subscribers chat and they levels are posted on Sunday evening.

3. Download my 2 eBooks on technical analysis and get access to my Market Intelligence Library, including special technical studies and educational content on technical indicators with real life charts. Find it right here:

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Risk management is always considered, the Central Weekly Level (CWL) works as invalidation alert for the bullish or bearish thesis, this week the IWM proved Small Caps cannot be divorced from the big indices when they fall, and despite of the bullish setup, IWM breached 303 on Tuesday, providing an exit sign from the long position.

People dismiss technicals during euphoria. It happened with Micron (MU). It happened with AMD. It happened with Gold, Silver, and Palantir in 2025. Every one of those situations produced a double-digit correction for anyone who ignored overbought conditions because the narrative felt compelling. The bill always comes, and it is always larger when technical conditions are not part of the decision. Same case with oversold conditions, when a security is there, human psychology is fueled with fear and aversion, but technicals may be showing a solid setup, as it was the case for Gold, SPCX, and most recently, Bitcoin.

• Gold Bullish call: July 29th

• SpaceX (SPCX) Bullish Call: Aug 1st

• SPX Bearish call AND 4 year Bitcoin Cycle Note: Aug 15th

Last week I published a broad analysis covering the Federal Reserve, oil, company fundamentals, insider selling, valuations, and geopolitical conditions. Those factors do not change week to week. If you have not read that piece, the link is below. It provides the structural context behind every technical setup I publish, and the last one was bearish for the SPX.

The watchlist I use is intentional and focused. It is a concentrated group of high-volume securities where fundamentals are transparent and well-documented and accessible, technical signals are reliable, and the options and leveraged ETF markets provide additional tools for those who want to use them.

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

When analyzing the moves during the 5 days of the week that just ended, the picture shows weakness in the market: Technology (XLK) fell sharply, Financials (XLF) followed, and Consumer Staples (XLY) stayed flat, while money rotated to defensives like materials (XLB) and healthcare (XLV); energy (XLE) rallied, something that as studied last Saturday (link above), it may happen in economic expansion moments, or it can be driven by supply reduction that endangers inflation, as it is the case today.

Every study and publication is available at smartreversals.com. Zero gut feeling, everything is specific.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

• Special Zoom in to TSLA: The latest +16% has been consistent with technical analysis, important educational note.

SPX: The Bearish Move is Unlikely Finished

Macro factors like the escalation in government bond yields, surge in oil prices driven by the geopolitical conflict in Iran, rising national debt concerns, and the technical factors presented here suggest the bearish move is not complete for the SPX, the 4 critical indicators to track are here:

Read more