Every Thursday I check if there is a major signal ahead of the end of the week, here is yesterday’s note:

The broader short setup began taking shape on Tuesday after indecisive price action printed a series of lower highs that again, I posted in my daily note. While Wednesday traded relatively neutral, corporate earnings served as the downside catalyst after the bell, just as noted on Tuesday when highlighted that rate hike probabilities were below 10%.

Framing the Tape: Weekly Levels Review

Every Friday, I model quantitative support and resistance levels for the trading week ahead across our core watchlist of mega-caps and high-liquidity assets. Once again, these levels were key this week for the setups with higher probabilities:

• MSFT: Declined directly into our 514.5 target for a -1.8% move, the loss of the CWL today triggered the setup since the week started in bullish mode.

• XOM: Hit our high-probability 186.4 target for a +1.8% gain, with that level now flipping to active support.

• SPX: Projected target at 7,567 was met, followed by a flush to 7,510 for a -1.5% move.

• AVGO: Staged a textbook reversal toward 335.1, reaching our extended target of 348 smoothly on Wednesday for an +8.0% weekly gain.

• WMT: Reached our projected 122 target (+2.3%), flipped the level into support, and pushed toward 125, another level modeled.

MSFT and SPX bounced today from or very close to the levels mentioned (514.9 and 7,510 respectively), a prove that institutional algorithms react to these levels.

Remember: more than 70% of the daily volume is driven by institutional algorithms in the NYSE. Since systematic algorithms dominate order flow, price action reacts around these specific technical levels.

Managing Risk with the Central Weekly Level (CWL)

My support and resistance framework relies on the Central Weekly Level (CWL) as the primary directional filter: holding above validates a bullish bias, while trading below confirms bearish control.

Beyond directional bias, the CWL provides an objective stop-loss anchor to manage risk in volatile conditions, and I have to say, this was not an easy week after the volatility spike on Wednesday after the bell. Consider two live examples from this week:

• PLTR: Charts favored a bullish continuation, but the stock slid -6.4%. Because our CWL was set at 195.2, subscribers had an objective exit that capped the loss around -0.8% (I always suggest to set some space from the level).

• LLY: Based on overbought conditions outlined last Saturday, I anticipated a pullback. However, a blowout earnings report sent the stock surging +11.3%. Our risk parameter at 1,277 (just 0.4% above the prior Friday’s close) kept downside exposure strictly contained.

In both instances, adhering to the CWL limited downside to -0.8%, while our winning setups captured gains ranging from +1.8% to over +8.0% (average 3.5%). This is how quantitative levels keep your risk-reward strictly asymmetric.

Technical analysis is key, just staying above a level demands technical analysis, price action/candles and momentum indicators at the very least. That’s why I post charts and levels combined.

Looking Ahead: Weekly & Monthly Levels for November

Because today marks the monthly close, I’m also updating our Central Monthly Levels (CML) for each ticker. Monthly levels cover wider ranges and provide essential macro perspective for both swing traders and long-term investors. Over the past two weeks, I shared charts illustrating the severe historical consequences of losing the CML on the SPX and QQQ.

The levels are calculated for core mega-caps, high-beta momentum names, and liquid sector proxies across active options and leveraged ETF markets as follows:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

If you trade some of those tickers, this publication is for you.

Below, you will find the complete matrix of weekly and monthly levels. Each level includes its percentage distance from current price, allowing you to gauge immediate distance to target and measure risk versus reward ahead of Monday’s opening bell.

What You Get as a Paid Subscriber

When you upgrade to the paid plan, you unlock three core publications each week, along with exclusive member benefits:

→Friday: Support and Resistance Levels for the week ahead.

→Saturday: The Weekly Compass, featuring an in-depth technical immersion.

→Daily SPX & ES=F Levels: Receive daily levels assessing short-term momentum and potential reversal signals.

In addition to my weekly publishing schedule, your membership includes these perks:

→ Instant Ebook Access: Unlock my two foundational technical analysis ebooks directly from the Market Intelligence Library. (click here)

→Customized Level Modeling: Every Sunday, submit your watchlist stocks in the paid subscriber chat. Their specific institutional levels are modeled for the week ahead and published directly to the site.

All content is available at SmartReversals.com.

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Today’s Content:

• Complete Weekly Levels for all Core Watchlist Tickers

• New Monthly Levels and Macro Levels Matrix for November

• Combined Weekly and Monthly Levels

• Daily Plan for Monday (SPX and ES=F)

• Fundamental Analysis for AMZN

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WEEKLY LEVELS

Red across the board, but TSLA’s resilience is interesting , not to mention the non-tech stocks. Let me add here a note about the SPX and NDX:

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Macro headwinds compounded the selloff. Hot inflation data and resilient GDP readings prompted traders to aggressively recalibrate policy expectations, pushing the probability of a December rate hike up to 74%.

Price action remained choppy this week. The SPX chart posted here on Tuesday, highlighting a sequence of lower highs and indecisive candles, was validated as the index printed yet another lower high that is likely to stay as a high considering the bearish reaction to AMZN earnings.

After the bell, AMZN added further pressure to the tape, dropping -5% in extended trading following a top and bottom line miss. Q3 EPS arrived at $1.89 (vs. $1.97 consensus) on revenue of $201.9 billion (vs. $202.2 billion expected). In addition, the management held its massive 2026 CapEx budget at $220 billion, dragging trailing twelve-month free cash flow to negative $42.4 billion and sealing the post-market selloff.

Today’s Agenda

• The Most Important Chart of the Week

• Fundamental Analysis and Price Targets for GOOG and MSFT

• Daily plan for SPX, ES=F

• Daily and Weekly Levels Combined for tomorrow: SPX, ES=F, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, NVDA, and other megacaps.

• Watchlist Tracker

Unlock this institutional level research: I am adding comprehensive fundamental analyses to these daily market notes to expand our fundamental library.

Every release fundamental reality, providing 1, 3, and 12-month price targets based on EPS trends, CapEx, revenue growth, and business units analysis.

Full reports for META, SPCX, TSLA, GOOG, MSFT, NFLX, JPM, and V are ready to download here. Subscribe to access this information for both long term investors and traders.

Designed for speed and clarity, these one-pagers get straight to what matters: core business drivers, key financial inflection points, and multi-horizon price targets.

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Let’s begin.

The Most Important Chart of the Week

In this space we studied the high probabilities for a spike in the VIX, the top in the NDX, and today a major level breached:

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The SPX held the Central Daily Level (CDL) posted last night as firm support. Our 7,712 bull/bear level cleared the way for upside toward 7,746, which sat just three dollars above today’s close. Price action lacked strong conviction as the market had already priced in the Fed’s rate pause and shifted focus to earnings after the bell.

Throughout this earnings season, I provide fundamental research in downloadable one-pagers for all permanently tracked securities to paid subscribers. Those reports include multi-year trends in main financial numbers, bullish / bearish factors, economic MOAT, competitors, price targets and business triggers for bullish or bearish reactions.

The Permanently Tracked Watchlist covers: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

Our core watchlist focuses on high-volume mega-caps across diverse sectors to capitalize on market rotations. Concentrating solely on tech works during aggressive bull legs, but when sector rotations take hold, we see substantial moves like those in COST, WMT, V, XOM, and LLY, alongside the relative resilience displayed by JPM.

Each company will receive full coverage this season. If you missed my breakdowns for SPCX, TSLA, META, and NFLX, the downloadable fundamental one-pagers are available here:

Subscribe now to premium content and unlock all the fundamental library, along with the publications featuring key levels and technical setups. Subscribing also grants you full access to my educational library, including two eBooks on technical analysis (Essentials and Advanced), plus the ability to submit your favorite stocks every weekend to have their support and resistance levels modeled for the week ahead.

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After the bell, GOOG disappointed and is down -10% in extended trading, setting up a steep gap down tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, MSFT is gaining just +3%. Let’s see how initial post-market volatility settles and how Wall Street responds with rating adjustments and price target revisions. Tomorrow, I will publish comprehensive fundamental breakdowns for both names, and we will see if the weakness in the SPX and NDX resumes, so far that is likely. Today, we dive into JPM and V, both of which have already reported.

Subscribe, this context is not as easy as it was from April to August, objective analysis and modeled price levels are key to set targets, manage risk, and outperform the market.

Today’s Agenda

• Fundamental Analysis for JPM and V

• Daily plan for SPX, ES=F → Another Vanishing Rally?

• Daily and Weekly Levels Combined for SPX, ES=F, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, AMD, LLY, V.

• Watchlist Tracker

Let’s begin.

Fundamental Analysis for V and JPM → Downloadable Files

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Because weekly levels can span a wide range (not to mention the monthly levels also updated here), I provide daily levels to map early reversal warnings or validations and intermediate support and resistance levels.

Mirroring the Central Weekly Level (CWL), I share a Central Daily Level (CDL) every day along with its surrounding support and resistance levels. For today, 7,672.9 served as the anticipated CDL, with 7,706 as intermediate resistance and 7,735 as extended resistance. Price reversed today right at 7,735 twice (at 12:45 PM and 3:45 PM), ultimately settling below the weekly level of 7,725.

Institutional algorithms react around these price zones. Having them plotted ahead of the session gives you a real edge, showing you where to prepare for potential reversals and where to watch for consolidation.

Tomorrow’s levels are detailed below, and they are essential for two reasons:

1. Price is testing a major confluence of resistance across daily levels, weekly levels, and the descending trendline highlighted below.

2. The Fed announces its interest rate decision tomorrow afternoon against a backdrop of sticky inflation.

Subscribe now to premium content and unlock this daily analysis, along with the weekend publications featuring key levels and setups for the week ahead. Subscribing also grants you full access to my educational library, including two eBooks on technical analysis (Essentials and Advanced), plus the ability to submit your favorite stocks every weekend to have their support and resistance levels modeled for the week ahead.

The Support and Resistance levels for this week are here with educational charts using SPX and QQQ:

And my educational library is here with the two downloadable books

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Today’s Agenda

• Two Pathways Analyzed on Saturday

• Daily plan for SPX, ES=F.

• Daily and Weekly Levels Combined for SPX, ES=F, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, V, NVDA, AMD, LLY.

• Watchlist Tracker

Let’s begin.

SPX: Two Pathways Analyzed on Saturday

We studied two scenarios for the index, here are the levels and the chart posted on Saturday with both lines aiming at the same objective:

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Risk remains elevated, the VIX sits near 18 despite today’s pullback, meaning price action can easily trap both bulls and bears. That said, several setups highlighted on Saturday are moving in our favor: PLTR kicked off the week with strength, joined by XOM, AVGO, and WMT.

We also considered the likelihood of a bounce in names like NVDA, IWM, and TSLA. For TSLA, I noted that “the next milestone is $389.2.” Price surged well beyond that today, reaching 391 for a +5.2% move.

The central question now is whether this momentum can sustain. For that reason, tomorrow’s Compass is ready with daily levels for SPX and ES=F, key megacaps reporting earnings this week (MSFT, AMZN, LLY, V, and GOOG), and semiconductors like NVDA and AMD that showed constructive action today even as some continue working to reclaim critical levels.

The levels shared here are modeled based on price action and volume footprints, giving you a disciplined framework to anticipate where institutional algorithms will react. Research from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) confirms that algorithmic and automated strategies drive 70% to 80%+ of total volume in U.S. and developed equity markets. The modeled levels posted here are designed around that reality as paid subscribers know.

In case you missed it, this week’s full analysis with technical conditions and key levels is available here, along with links to the downloadable one-pagers with fundamental analysis for META, TSLA, SPCX, and NFLX:

This is the watchlist permanently studied:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

If you trade some of those securities, this publication is for you.

Subscribe now to premium content and unlock this daily analysis, along with the weekend publications featuring key levels and setups for the week ahead. Subscribing also grants you full access to my educational library, including two eBooks on technical analysis (Essentials and Advanced), plus the ability to submit your favorite stocks every weekend to have their support and resistance levels modeled for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Today’s Agenda

• Daily plan for SPX, ES=F

• Daily, Monthly, and Weekly Levels Combined for SPX, ES=F, NVDA, AMZN, MSFT, GOOG, AVGO, and AMD

• Watchlist Tracker

Let’s begin.

Daily plan for SPX, ES=F

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What is particularly interesting is that stock participation continues to improve. While the mega-cap semiconductor and tech giants in general are struggling, that weakness is not replicated across the broader market. Healthcare, energy, staples, financials, and discretionary sectors, those less influenced by tech, enjoyed a bullish week. Communication services (XLC) was impacted by META’s bearish move.

For this reason, I maintain a specific watchlist covering mega-caps across different sectors. Last week, this publication anticipated high-probability bearish setups for META, exceeding its 659 target (-7.1%); MSFT, hitting 515 (-2%); and AMZN, targeting 244.5 (-2.2%), alongside bullish setups for COST, which reached 1,016 (+2.7%), and XOM, hitting 181.8 (+1.6%). The setup blueprint I present includes my personal picks and the specific roadmap for each security so subscribers can track their own preferences: LLY for example was bullish, and reached the 1,302 target (+3.6%), V was bullish, approaching the 417.4 extended target (+3.7%), and GOOG was bearish, it exceeded its 322 extended target (-4.2%).

My watchlist focuses on mega-caps and high-volume ETFs that are actively traded in the options market, with most offering leveraged instruments for those seeking more velocity. These mega-caps can deliver double-digit moves when properly selected, which is why I combine transparently explained technical charts with the Momentum Map for paid subscribers, backed by modeled support and resistance levels to validate momentum and set precise targets.

This is my watchlist permanently studied, with daily updates. If you trade some of these securities, this publication is for you:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

One final advantage of maintaining a structured watchlist is becoming deeply familiar with their fundamentals, which I update every quarter in my fundamental library. Earnings season is at its peak, I have improved the fundamental analysis with institutional level analysis in one pagers, all the stocks above are being updated, in case you missed META, NFLX, TSLA, and SPCX, the downloadable analyses are here:

Unlock this objective approach by upgrading to the paid plan, and the support and resistance levels considering the watchlist for next week are here.

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Everything is available at smartreversals.com. Zero gut feeling. Everything is specific.

Next week will be a blockbuster stretch featuring mega-cap earnings from MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, LLY, and V, alongside the highly anticipated Fed rate decision this Wednesday and Core PCE data (the Fed's preferred inflation metric) on Thursday. Fasten your seatbelts and let’s examine what technical indicators say, critical price levels required, and high-probability setups to navigate the week ahead.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

• Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Let’s begin.

SPX: Sectors where money flowed are now overbought and tech continues weak:

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The current market decline has been anticipated since Thursday, October 1st, when I documented the technical reasons why a spike in the Volatility Index (VIX) was imminent. On Thursday, October 8th, I anticipated a bearish formation in the price action for the NDX, and last Saturday I anticipated the vanishing bounce.

The bearish reversal did not happen by chance; it occurred when the price approached 7,776 for the SPX as a weekly target, and in the case of the NDX, when it approached the central monthly level of 29,977. A bearish reversal was expected, the only question was the trigger.

From the high-probability setups posted last week using the support and resistance levels: MSFT reached 518 (-2%); META exceeded its extended bearish target of 659 (-7.1%), delivering an actual -9% move this week; XOM exceeded its bullish target of 181.7, jumping +2.3% this week; AMZN declined as anticipated, though it did not hit its -2.2% target; COST reached 1,016 for a bullish +2.7% move.

My approach uses price action and technical indicators to assess directional probabilities, and the support and resistance levels modeled here every Friday are used to set targets. This approach is clean, free of gut feelings, and entirely about specificity.

These pre-calculated levels anticipate turning points in price action. Representing consensus price levels where institutional volume and market liquidity tend to cluster, they act as critical structural anchors for traders.

They include the crucial central weekly level for the week and a crucial central monthly level for the month, helping to validate the directional expectations for each ticker. For example, AVGO was expected to bounce this week, contingent on the recovery of its CWL; because that setup was not triggered, traders were protected against a premature buy.

Central Weekly Level

The S/R levels include a set of seven lines, three resistances, three supports, and one central level that validates bullish conditions when the price is above it, and bearish conditions when the price is below it. It establishes the core equilibrium price for the trading week.

This SPX chart shows the CWL provided in this publication since January 2026, see the effect of losing it and how healthy is momentum when the price is above it. Worth noting: This is the second weekly close in a row below the Central Weekly Level (W).

This level is updated every Friday for the week ahead including SPX, SPY, and all the tickers in the watchlist (details below).

Risk Management Framework: The CWL define invalidation points for bullish setups when it is breached, and it invalidates bearish setups when it is recovered, allowing for precise stop-loss references and objective risk-reward ratios considering the levels above and below the CWL.

Central Monthly Level

The CML represents major structural support or resistance. When a market undergoes a sharp correction holding the CML often distinguishes a routine sector rotation from a broader market breakdown.

Institutional algorithms heavily monitor monthly levels to rebalance portfolios, making a sustained breach of the CML a powerful signal of a larger trend change.

The CML posted here each month for QQQ since 2025 makes the case on how relevant is to lose the CML. That level acted as resistance this week after being resistance since the beginning of October, the recovery is taking too long.

For this reason the support and resistance levels work for traders and long-term investors.

These levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.

The Weekly and Monthly Levels are posted here for each ticker of this watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

If you trade some of these tickers, this publication is for you, and when you are a paid subscriber you can post your preferred tickers in the premium chat every Saturday and your customized weekly levels are returned on Sunday.

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And in case you missed it, yesterday I posted the fundamental analyses for META, TSLA, SPCX, and NFLX. They have been upgraded to an enriched downloadable analysis with price targets for short, medium, and long term.

Today’s Content:

• Weekly Levels for the Watchlist

• Monthly Levels for the Watchlist

• Combined Levels

• Daily Plan for Monday (SPX and ES=F)

Let’s begin.

WEEKLY LEVELS - More Selloff Next Week?

Tickers marked in red closed below next week’s CWL and anticipated momentum is bearish, the distance they have to jump to flip momentum from bearish to bullish and provide signals that a bottom can be in is the percentage in each cell. See the difference in most tech names versus other tickers:

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The selloff that came next went further than expected for the short term, but the only way to capture it was using the futures, when the ES=F lost our central weekly level of 7,754 at 9PM EST, and it spread across the tape.

The Weekly Compass had it on the map, what seemed an invalidation of the bearish case anticipated last Saturday ended confirmed in a single session, both the SPX and NDX lost their key levels and the bearish continuation is what played out. Weekly setups can trigger at any moment, which is why that timeframe is at the center of how I read the market, and the VIX breakout we've been studying with subscribers is the condition to keep in mind.

Today's edition goes one level deeper into the companies behind the move: a full fundamental analysis of META, TSLA, SPCX and NFLX, in a new format with a downloadable one pager for each name. You get the numbers, the bullish and bearish case, and my point of view for the short term, three months and one year. Upgrade to unlock it below.

It’s earnings season, and this one-pager is the best way to update out fundamental library. Subscribe and get access to these institutional-level documents that will be used during these season for our watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

If you trade some of those securities, this publication is for you.

Subscribe now

Today’s Agenda

• The Most Important Chart of the Week

• Fundamental Deep Dive on META, TSLA, SPCX, NFLX

• Daily plan for SPX, ES=F

• Daily and Weekly Levels Combined for SPX, ES=F, META, TSLA, SPCX, & Semis.

• Watchlist Tracker

Let’s begin.

The Most Important Chart of the Week

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On Friday, I shared two long-term charts for the SPX and QQQ demonstrating how critical it is when a central weekly and monthly level is recovered:

Today, tech (NDX and QQQ) reclaimed its central weekly level, the bullish reaction to SpaceX earnings fueled the market as considered yesterday. As a $2 trillion company, SpaceX is larger than Broadcom ($1.8T), Meta ($1.5T), and even Tesla ($1.5T). It has the weight to influence the broader tech sector and specifically AI stocks, as seen today when semiconductor leaders like NVDA, AMD, and MU held above their anticipated daily levels (215.9, 535.8, and 898.8, respectively) and printed a constructive picture.

Since semiconductors are oversold, I provided daily levels yesterday combined with the weekly ones to monitor early bullish moves. Some might assume daily levels are exclusively for day traders, but that is not the case. Daily levels serve as early milestones during a recovery, giving bulls a valid technical confirmation that a bounce is underway, and conversely, signaling bearishness when those levels are lost.

The levels modeled every week apply for these tickers:

Subscribe now to premium content and unlock this daily analysis, along with the weekend publications featuring key levels and setups for the week ahead. Subscribing also grants you full access to my educational library, including two eBooks on technical analysis (Essentials and Advanced), plus the ability to submit your preferred stocks every weekend to have their support and resistance levels modeled for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Today’s Agenda

• Charts to Watch: META, TSLA, GOOG, NFLX

• Daily plan for SPX, ES=F and Bounce Assessment

• Daily and Weekly Levels Combined for SPX, ES=F, SPCX, TSLA, META, NVDA, MU, AMD.

• Watchlist Tracker

Let’s begin.

Charts to Watch: META, TSLA, GOOG, NFLX

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Once again, the rally vanished. The moment price touched 7,748, the elevator down began, giving back half of the daily gains and printing another indecisive candle.

The anticipated choppy week is playing out. There are weeks when we see conviction, and others defined by intraday reversals that trap both bulls and bears. This marked the second consecutive day where prices retraced from the highs without presenting bullish conviction.

On the tech side, semiconductors drove yesterday’s bounce, and I published a detailed set of levels for NVDA, MU, and AMD to assess whether the rally would persist or prove to be merely a technical bounce. All three stocks remain below their validation levels, while the rejections for NVDA and MU at 218 and 913, both modeled in advance for this week, point to underlying weakness in the bounce. The NDX (and QQQ) closed in the red today, validating the lack of conviction observed yesterday. Updated levels for tomorrow are provided below.

On the earnings front, the first trillion-dollar company reported: SpaceX (SPCX) delivered a beat on both top and bottom lines. Revenue surged 161% year-over-year to $14.5 billion, beating consensus estimates of $12.7 billion. Earnings per share and EBITDA also came in above expectations, while capital expenditures stayed slightly below the market’s $19.6 billion estimate. That performance is keeping tech futures in the green this afternoon and semiconductors are bouncing as well.

Subscribe now to premium content and unlock this daily analysis, along with the weekend publications featuring key levels and setups. Subscribing also grants you full access to my educational library, including two eBooks on technical analysis (Essentials and Advanced), plus the ability to submit your favorite stocks every weekend to have their support and resistance levels modeled for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Today’s Agenda

• SPCX and NFLX: Two Different Stories and Potential Moves in Market Hours

• Daily plan for SPX, ES=F.

• Daily and Weekly Levels Combined for SPX, ES=F, SPCX, QQQ, NVDA, MU, AMD, TSLA, META

• Watchlist Tracker

Let’s begin.

SPCX & NFLX: Potential Moves in Market Hours

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Now that the bounce has materialized, the prevailing question is: Is the bottom in?

However, we should perhaps rephrase the question: Is the sector rotation over?

That consideration is driven by the divergences we have witnessed over recent days, where semiconductors cratered while non-tech sectors rallied, as seen in COST, WMT, XOM, LLY, JPM, and V while NVDA, MU, and AMD sold off sharply. Today, we saw the inverse: was this simply tech experiencing a technical bounce while non-tech underwent a healthy pullback?

In case you missed the Weekly Compass, the publication is here:

When you subscribe to the paid plan, you get access to my Market Intelligence and educational collection, along with two ebooks on technical analysis covering both fundamentals and advanced indicators.

Subscribe now

Today’s Agenda

• How to Validate a Bounce?

• Watchlist Tracker

• Daily plan for SPX and ES=F

• Daily Levels Combined with Longer Timeframes for SPX, ES=F, NVDA, AMD, MU, SPCX, META, TSLA.

Why that combination of levels? Semiconductors must prove their bounce, while the other three are posting earnings this week.

Let’s begin.

How to Validate a Bounce?

Last Friday, I posted these two charts highlighting how crucial it is for each ticker to recover its central weekly level (CWL), and even better, for a structural improvement, its central monthly level (CML).

The charts presented the implications of losing those levels, and the red marks made it clear when that happened. So yes, one of the criteria to validate a bounce is the recovery of one of those levels, ideally both, alongside other four elements.

Spoiler alert: Neither the SPX, NDX, nor their ETFs (SPY and QQQ) recovered their weekly levels today. (details below with the charts)

The weekly and monthly levels for the following tickers are below in my Watchlist Tracker, if you trade some of these tickers this publication is for you:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

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Some individual names recovered their levels as follows, and we continue with the four factors to assess today’s bounce:

Factor 1: Recovered Levels

This is the breakdown not only for the SPX and NDX, but for all our watchlist:

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The 3.7% print reflects a re-acceleration, it remains well below the multidecade peak of 9.1% recorded in June 2022 but it extends one of the longest stretches of elevated inflation in the past century. Headline CPI has now stayed above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target for more than five years, since March 2021.

The primary catalyst for the recent bump is energy. The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted energy supplies and pushed costs sharply higher. Over the past year, gasoline prices have surged 34.2% and fuel oil has jumped 74.2%, and price pressures are spreading into broader categories, including shelter (now at 3.2% annually), airline fares and other transportation costs, automobile prices, and hardware and software tied to the AI investment boom.

This puts the Federal Reserve in a difficult position, because its main tool works on demand while this inflation is coming from supply. Raising rates does not create more oil. Hikes cool inflation by slowing spending and borrowing, which works well when prices rise because demand is too strong. The war has cut oil supply, a hike cannot bring back a single barrel. It only makes people and businesses spend less on everything else, so hiking rates risks pushing growth lower while inflation stays high, which is the stagflation trade-off.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) delivered an even sharper upside surprise. Final PPI surged 1.3% in September, nearly double the 0.7% economists expected and the largest monthly advance since March 2022. Wholesale prices rose 6.3% year over year (up from 5.6% in August), the largest 12-month advance since December 2022.

More than 80% of the increase in goods prices traced back to a 10.8% jump in wholesale energy costs, including gasoline up 20.3% and diesel up 21% within the month. Wholesale food also rebounded 1.2%.

The FED Dilemma

• Hike too much, too soon: the Fed hurts a slowing economy for a problem rates can’t fix.

• Wait too long: the shock leaks into wages, core prices and expectations, and then it takes harder hikes to undo.

The Stock Market and Setups

Last week we studied how price action was showing clear signs of a top, with the NDX printing reversal signals and the VIX due for a spike, not to mention the bearish reversal called for NVDA in my daily note on Wednesday 10/7. This week, price action found its bearish trigger.

We have also studied how technical analysis anticipates events, and how institutional algorithms account for roughly 60% to 73% of daily US equity volume according to JP Morgan, Bloomberg, and the Bank of International Settlements (BIS).

Did the whales know what was coming on inflation, and did their moves leave footprints in price action? What we know for sure is that last week’s price action warned of a decline. The high probability setups for NVDA, AMD and QQQ reached their targets: 219 🎯 (-4.2%), 537 🎯 (-11.6%) and 722 🎯 (-4%) respectively, all of them beyond expectations. We also studied bullish setups, and they worked as well: COST 1,000 🎯 (+5.6%), WMT 516 🎯 (+5%) and NFLX 72.8 🎯 (+3.5%).

All of these levels were calculated from modeled support and resistance levels where institutional algorithms react, and the directional views rested on transparent technical analysis presented here, including the charts and momentum maps shared here with subscribers every Saturday.

I publish the complete set of weekly and monthly levels for my watchlist every Friday. This Saturday’s publication adds the technical charts and the Blueprint of setups for next week, including the price targets for this watchlist:

If you trade some of the stocks in this watchlist, this publication is for you:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Yesterday I included charts showing why it matters to invest and trade using levels, with clear charts for SPX and QQQ. In case you missed it, the publication is here:

Unlock all the content by upgrading to a paid subscription, which also gives you access to my full Market Intelligence library, with educational content and two downloadable ebooks on essential and advanced indicators, with worked chart examples:

Everything is available at smartreversals.com.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

• Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Let’s begin.

SPX: What to Expect Next Week

The chart shows a critical support tested and bearish conviction in price action, considering previous reversals these are the drivers for what is coming:

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This week’s selloff is not unexpected, neither the destinations considering specific price levels that I have been highlighting in the premium / paid content: 7684.7 for SPX / 765.6 for SPY, and 29,647 and 29,235 for NDX / 720 and 711 for QQQ. Those levels were exceeded today, in one of the most bullish month of the year. Remember again: price action is primal, seasonality can be ruled out when technical signals anticipate the opposite move.

For this week, the bearish setups documented last weekend in the Weekly Compass played out: the bearish ones like NVDA, AMD, and QQQ reached bearish modeled targets, while COST, WMT, and NFLX reached their bullish targets (1,000, 116+, and 72.7 respectively) during the week.

Why are these Support and Resistance Levels important?

They identify potential support and resistance zones, assess overall market bias, and anticipate turning points in price action. They represent consensus price levels where institutional volume and market liquidity tend to cluster, they act as critical structural anchors for traders.

The S/R levels remove emotional bias by providing levels where price is statistically likely to react, stall, or reverse. They include a central level, (monthly, weekly, or daily), trading above a central level validates bullish bias, while trading below it signals a defensive or bearish stance.

Central Weekly Level

The S/R levels include a set of seven lines, three resistances, three supports, and one central level that validates bullish conditions when the price is above it, and bearish conditions when the price is below it. It establishes the core equilibrium price for the trading week.

This QQQ chart shows the CWL provided in this publication since March 2026, see the effect of losing this level and how healthy is momentum when the price is above it.

This level is updated every Friday for the week ahead including all the tickers in the watchlist.

Risk Management Framework: The CWL define invalidation points for bullish setups when it is breached, and it invalidates bearish setups when it is recovered, allowing for precise stop-loss references and objective risk-reward ratios considering the levels above and below the CWL.

Central Monthly Level

It works in the same way but the monthly levels are much wider in general, the principles are the same as the CWL. The CML represents major structural support or resistance. When a market undergoes a sharp correction holding the CML often distinguishes a routine sector rotation from a broader market breakdown.

Institutional algorithms heavily monitor monthly levels to rebalance portfolios, making a sustained breach of the CML a powerful signal of a larger trend change.

The CML posted here each month for the SPX since 2025 makes the case on how relevant is to lose the CML:

For this reason the support and resistance levels work for traders and long-term investors.

These levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.

The Weekly and Monthly Levels are posted here for each ticker of this watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

If you trade some of these tickers, this publication is for you, and when you are a paid subscriber you can post your preferred tickers in the premium chat every Saturday and your customized weekly levels are returned on Sunday.

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Today’s Content:

• Weekly Levels for the Watchlist

• Monthly Levels for the Watchlist

• Combined Levels

• Daily Plan for Monday (SPX and ES=F)

Let’s begin.

WEEKLY LEVELS - Will the Selloff Continue?

Tickers marked in red are set to open below next week’s CWL and momentum is bearish, the distance they have to jump to flip momentum from bearish to bullish and provide signals that a bottom can be in is the percentage in each cell. See the difference in tech names versus other tickers:

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• Semiconductors (SMH): Down -7.4% on the week, driven by sharp pullbacks in individual names like MU (-9.5%), AMD (-7.5%), and NVDA (-5%).

• Defensives & Value: Consumer Staples XLP has jumped +3.9% so far this week, Healthcare XLV is up +3.7%, Materials XLB gained +2.3%, and Financials/Real Estate (XLF and XLRE) are both up +1%.

This is the daily moves breakdown per individual names in the SP500:

Price action closed with bearish conviction yesterday in technology names, affecting both the SPX and NDX. Today's session opened with a major gap down that, given oversold conditions, triggered a bounce that successfully filled the gap across the major indices.

The central question today is: Is this a failed breakdown marking the ultimate bottom, or just a technical bounce before the decline resumes?

During the past several days, I have warned about the imminent risk in the SPX and NDX, both of which carried very high probabilities of visiting 7,684 (765 for the SPY) and 29,647 for the NDX (720.9 for QQQ). Both milestones were achieved today, proving the bearish structure thesis right and validating that patience is key.

My bearish positioning for the indices and semiconductors was validated, as the declines for NVDA and AMD were anticipated last Saturday and both reached extended levels of 213 and 537, respectively. At the same time, bullish targets in COST and WMT were also anticipated with specific levels that today flipped from resistance to support. Furthermore, in last night’s mid-week update, I highlighted the bullish thesis for NFLX with clear parameters, and the stock rallied +2.9% today.

As we analyze this week’s action, the current market structure is not signaling a broad, systemic crash (also as anticipated). Instead, it is a sector rotation.

This dynamic highlights why maintaining a broad, diverse watchlist is essential for any serious trader or analyst. If you only watch a single sector, a rotation feels like a crisis. By tracking a comprehensive universe across technology, cyclicals, and defensives, you can spot where capital is flowing in real time, separate sector-specific pullbacks from genuine market crashes, and stay flexible enough to capitalize on opportunities wherever they emerge.

This is my Core Watchlist focused on megacaps and high-volume assets. If you trade some of these tickers, this publication is for you:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Subscribe now to premium content and unlock this daily analysis, along with the weekend publications featuring key levels and setups for the week ahead. Subscribing also grants you full access to my educational library, including two eBooks on technical analysis (Essentials and Advanced), plus the ability to submit your preferred stocks every weekend to have their support and resistance levels modeled for the week ahead.

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The Weekly Compass where the current moves were anticipated is here, along with my Market Intelligence Library:

Today’s Agenda

• Is the Bottom In or Is This a Technical Bounce?

• Daily plan for SPX, ES=F

• Daily and Weekly Levels Combined for SPX, ES=F, MU, AMD, NVDA, QCOM, and Other Semiconductor Names

• Watchlist Tracker (Momentum for each ticker and their distance to key levels)

Let’s begin.

Is the Bottom In or Is This a Technical Bounce?

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Last night, I highlighted the risks of a decline considering price action for the SPX and NDX, since the structure for both indices had a downside magnet. Tech indeed was the main driver of today’s selloff.

The bearish resolution today is no surprise from a technical perspective, and the CPI data served as the catalyst for this likely move since it came hotter than the market expected. The probabilities for a rate hike at the end of this month passed to 32% from 22% last night, the market is reacting to this spike, the central daily level of 7,801 for SPX and 7851.7 for the ES=F were lost early in the morning, and then the key central weekly levels. Tomorrow we have PPI data, the market context and technical charts with targets are below.

The SPX is my core index, but I study a constant watchlist of stocks, ETFs, Crypto, and other indices, helping subscribers to navigate their preferred stocks and market rotations. Following the high-probability setups posted last Saturday, key targets have been reached 🎯:

• NVDA: Anticipated a decline targeting 224.5 and then 219.7 for a -4.2% drop, and that exact level was hit today.

• AMD: The bearish setup targeted 589, and then 571.7 for a -6% move this week, and price closed at that level today.

• QQQ: Anticipated a decline targeting 732.8 for a -2.5% drop; that target was exceeded today, with the weekly decline currently at -2.9%.

However, as I always emphasize, market rotation is constant. Alongside those downside targets, I also highlighted bullish setups 🎯:

• COST: Targeted 976.8 for a +3.2% gain. This target has already been surpassed.

• WMT: Set with an extended target of 116.9, for a +5% gain about to be completed.

• The other bullish setups will be studied below.

These anticipated directions were transparently explained to our paid community using clean charts and support/resistance levels modeled ahead of the week (relying not on historical diagonals or long-term levels, but on real-time weekly price action). My goal is to deliver consistent, actionable weekly moves across a constant mega-cap watchlist.

This is my Core Watchlist, If you trade some of these tickers, this publication is for you:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Focusing on the largest megacaps and primary ETFs provides the daily volume needed for reliable order execution. This securities are also in the options market or have leveraged ETFs for traders and investors who like more velocity.

If you missed Saturday’s Weekly Compass, perhaps while celebrating a long-weekend, you can access the full analysis below, subscribe to the paid plan and unlock also my market intelligence library, including two downloadable e-books on technical analysis essentials and advanced charts.

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Today’s Midweek Update & Agenda

• Setups Update: SPX, QQQ, NVDA, AMD, COST, JPM, NFLX, AMZN

• Daily plan for SPX, ES=F.

• Daily and Weekly Levels Combined for SPX, ES=F, and more semiconductor giants (MU, QCOM, MRVL, AVGO, NVDA, AMD)

• Watchlist Tracker

Let’s begin.

Setups Update:

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The market is anticipating just a 22% chance of a rate hike on October 28th, when the Federal Reserve will make the decision whether to keep rates steady or increase them by 0.25%. The consensus for CPI YoY is 3.6%; any number above it may increase the probability of a rate hike tomorrow, placing potential pressure on stocks. The same applies to Thursday, when core PPI is forecasted at 0.5% for the month.

Forecasting macroeconomic data is tricky, but staying prepared ahead of potential moves is essential. The support and resistance levels for tomorrow are outlined below, featuring the bullish above and bearish below levels for the SPX, ES=F, and a special zoom-in on semiconductor giants on watch, as that subsector is validating bearish setups studied on Saturday for this week.

• SMH: Today touched 571.7, the extended bearish target for a -6% move versus Friday.

• NVDA: Reached 224 for a -2.1% move.

• QQQ: Reached 242 for a -1.2% move versus Friday.

These three bearish levels modeled since Friday acted as support, proving that these price zones are where institutional algorithms react. These setups were studied on Saturday alongside bullish setups for COST and WMT. Today, we will track the entire set of setups and the market context for Wednesday, October 14th.

In case you missed it, the Weekly Compass with the Setups (charts and price targets) is here:

Subscribe now to premium content and unlock this daily analysis, along with the weekend publications featuring key levels and setups for the week ahead. Subscribing also grants you full access to my educational library, including two eBooks on technical analysis (Essentials and Advanced), plus the ability to submit your favorite stocks every weekend to have their support and resistance levels modeled for the week ahead.

Today’s Agenda

• Recent Reactions to CPI and Technical Charts

• Daily plan for SPX, ES=F.

• Daily and Weekly Levels Combined for SPX, ES=F, NVDA, AMD, AVGO, MU, MRVL, QCOM

• Watchlist Tracker

Let’s begin

Recent Reactions to CPI and Technical Charts - SPX & NDX:

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The described cracks for tech are playing out. From the high-probability setups mentioned last Saturday, NVDA was set to decline and the stock lost -1.3% today. AMD was highlighted for a decline and fell -2.3%, while the QQQ ETF dropped -0.7%.

As I have noted several times, is everything bearish? The answer is no, and the probabilities for a crash remain low. There are individual giants showing strong bullish setups. As highlighted on Saturday, COST and WMT carried high probabilities for a bullish move, gaining today +1.3% and +1.6% respectively. I also noted that NFLX maintains its own personality when a setup is strong; regardless of broader market action, the stock proved resilient today despite the tech pullback.

My primary focus is the SPX, and I maintain a constant watchlist of the 20 largest mega-caps and ETFs across sectors to monitor rotation. Today, the semiconductor sector (SMH) validated the bearish setups we recently studied, serving as the primary market condition to watch.

For those who may have missed the Weekly Compass during the long weekend, the publication featuring complete setup analyses and directional probabilities for each ticker is linked below:

The question is, what is my watchlist?

This is the core regular watchlist, which I organize into a momentum map to capture the stage and relative position of each asset in a single chart. This complete mapping is updated weekly and published in our Weekly Compass:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Subscribe now to premium content and unlock this daily analysis, along with the weekend publications featuring key levels and setups for the week ahead. Subscribing also grants you full access to my educational library, including two eBooks on technical analysis (Essentials and Advanced), plus the ability to submit your favorite stocks every weekend to have their support and resistance levels modeled for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Today’s Agenda

• Daily plan for SPX, ES=F.

• Daily and Weekly Levels Combined for SPX, ES=F, MU, AMD, NVDA, AVGO, MRVL, QCOM

• Watchlist Tracker

Let’s begin.

Daily Plan for SPX and ES=F

This chart explains very well the divergence observed today between the Dow Jones and the NDX 100, and the reason why this week I’m featuring the daily levels for semiconductors as special guests for everyone:

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However, it is crucial to watch the reversal unfolding in semiconductors. In last Wednesday’s mid-week update, I documented that NVDA was setting up a bearish reversal. Sure enough, semiconductors, including NVDA -2%, MU -4.3%, AMD -4%, and TSM -4.1%, fell sharply and closed the week in negative territory. On the flip side, AVGO proved its strength as one of my key bullish calls last Saturday, holding the line to finish +1.8% for the week.

Price Action as the Purest Indicator

Why do these shifts happen? Institutional players possess vast information, and their footprints show up directly in price action. An intra-week reversal printing a shooting star reveals institutional distribution, that happened this week with the NDX after reversing at our monthly level of 31,201 in confluence with our weekly one at 31,190.

COST bottomed two weeks ago near to 881, a weekly level where institutional algorithms reacted printing afterwards a daily engulfing candle on Sep 25th, or TSLA bouncing exactly at 345 last week, that was the last line of support for the week (modeled here for paid subscribers), the price bounced off where institutional buy orders were stacked and a daily hammer candle was printed on Sep 30th. My bullish calls on those two paid off this week.

Price action is the purest, most real-time data we have. It forms reliable patterns that allow us to navigate markets with clarity. This week, my bullish setups with specific targets anticipated for AMZN 258.8 🎯 (+2.9%), AVGO 372.0 🎯 (+4.7%), GOOG 349.4 🎯 (+2.7%), TSLA 381.5 🎯 (+2.9%), COST 945.8 🎯 (+2.7%), and SPCX 169.2 🎯 (+6.4%) played out as the tape suggested. The institutional levels modeled every Friday provide a tangible edge to trade the market effectively.

As a reference point, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Triennial Survey, along with estimates from JP Morgan and Bloomberg, puts algorithmic trading at about 60% to 73% of US equity volume.

As we head into next week’s earnings kickoff, let’s examine the institutional footprints, review the setups, and track the critical levels.

I publish the complete set of weekly and monthly levels for my watchlist every Friday, and this Saturday’s publication provides the exact blueprint of which setups are bullish, which are bearish, and their precise price targets using the levels.

My Core Watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

If you trade any of these tickers, this publication is built specifically for you, subscribe to the paid plan and unlock today’s charts, and the complete set of levels posted yesterday.

Subscribe now

Levels for next week:

Subscribers also get access to educational content and Market Intelligence analyses.

Everything is available at smartreversals.com.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for megacaps.

Let’s begin.

SPX: Navigating the Market with Tech Cracks and Bond Market in View

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For example, I anticipated a bullish reversal for GOOG based on technical indicators illustrated transparently to paid subscribers last Saturday, providing the central weekly level (CWL) of 341 as the trigger/confirmation. That move materialized on Monday, and the initial upside target was modeled at 349.4, the zone reached on Thursday and revisited today. The weekly move was +2.2% 🎯.

TSLA was set as a high probability bullish setup as well, setting 363.7 as the conditional level to hold as support, that central weekly level was respected yesterday when the market declined, the stock surpassed its weekly target of 381.5 gaining +3.3% this week 🎯.

Bullish expectations for COST were also documented with technical indicators shared on Saturday. The central weekly level was set at 918.5, holding above that threshold validated the bullish thesis. The upside targets were established at 933.1, and 945.6. By Tuesday, 933 was surpassed, and by Thursday the 945.58 target flipped to support. The stock gained +2.9% this week 🎯.

Given the precision of these levels, they are solid references to set a stop loss as well: AVGO, moved according to my bullish expectations, 372 as the bullish extended target was surpassed by Tuesday (+5% move 🎯), leading up to 384.14 before a measured rejection. When a target (372) is breached and flipped to support, it allows traders to lock in gains or set stops the level reached and let the price action to confirm any reversal by a breach of the level. We will study why the bullish setup is still in play.

AMZN as a bullish setup gained +4.3% 🎯 by flipping our modeled target 258.8 to support, SPCX presents a case like AVGO: reversal from the surpassed target of 169 +6.4% 🎯, but the bullish case continues in play; not to mention that SpaceX signed a major deal that provides SpaceX with the specific wireless frequencies needed to power its “Starlink Mobile” initiative, allowing Starlink satellites in space to beam cellular signals directly to ordinary smartphones.

Weekly levels work for swings or short-term moves, monthly levels for long-term positions, both are modeled and combined here every Friday for you, allowing to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the bullish or bearish considerations for each stock, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning… actually since Friday afternoon.

My Core Watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

If you trade one or some of these securities this publication is for you, and if you’re interested in other stocks or ETFs, you can submit them as paid subscriber using the premium chat, and their levels are modeled for next week, and posted during the weekend in the Paid Subscribers space, where you can find support and resistance guidelines. Find them here:

When you subscribe to the paid plan, you also unlock my library of educational content with real-life charts explaining how technical indicators work. 2 ebooks can be downloaded when upgrading:

Subscribe now

Today’s Content:

• Weekly Levels for the Watchlist

• Monthly Levels for the Watchlist

• Combined Levels

• Daily Plan for Monday (SPX and ES=F)

WEEKLY LEVELS

The intra-week reversal disrupted the technical structure for the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) and the semiconductors (SMH, NVDA, AMD), as outlined below. Because this recent rally has been heavily driven by tech and energy, these levels will be essential next week to validate any potential bounce, or to enforce the bearish targets presented below if key support layers fail to hold.

• Tickers highlighted in red: tickers facing vulnerability losing critical support.

• Tickers highlighted in green: Assets maintaining relative bullish momentum.

All the tickers listed above are in this executive report:

Read more

This week we are observing the same sequence. A bullish push early in the week, largely led by the tech sector, quickly gave way to selling pressure, leaving the Nasdaq 100 down -0.27% on the week so far. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (SPX) sits with a modest weekly gain of just +0.55%, a reversal from the gain observed earlier in the week.

I have been documenting the structural cracks and volatility warning transparently to help subscribers navigate potential fear of missing out (FOMO) in the indices and manage risk effectively. Today, the S&P 500 moved between the anticipated daily levels with precision:

The central daily level (CDL) 7,790.7 posted last night acted as the bullish-above / bearish-below threshold. It rejected price action as resistance at 10:30 AM and again at noon during a retest. Following the rejection, the price declined straight down to 7,730.7, a bearish level also modeled last night, bouncing back from there but still closing in the red. Today’s move presents again how these levels frame price action.

My daily levels cover the ES Futures, and 7,850 was the central daily level for today’s session. Posted yesterday after the close, that level was breached overnight; the price attempted to find support at 7,815 early in the morning, but 7,781 as another modeled support level was visited at 12:30 EST, the price bounced slightly above 7,815… all those levels were also posted yesterday after the bell.

Zooming out, the setup is forming a potential top for the indices, the chart below with the levels to watch is essential for traders and investors. Technicals provide directional probabilities, price levels validate the thesis.

Individual Setups

Is everything bearish? Not at all. I continue to highlight individual setups that maintain strong relative strength and hold critical support levels:

As noted yesterday, NFLX looked appealing for bulls, rallying +2.7% today despite broader tech weakness, COST highlighted as a high-probability defensive setup in consumer staples, accumulating a +3% gain this week. Stocks like TSLA and GOOG were resilient today despite of the tech selloff, META bounced from its weekly support of 710, and it was interesting today’s strength in WMT, showing upside momentum toward the specific price target/gap posted in previous publications.

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Today’s Agenda

• The most important chart of the week

• Daily plan for SPX, ES=F

• Daily and Weekly Levels Combined for SPX, ES=F, AMZN, COST, and other megacaps

• Watchlist Tracker

Let’s Begin.

The Most Important Chart of the Week:

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