This week has been one of the most consequential for the 2026 market, defined by a historic Federal Reserve meeting and a flood of top-tier economic data. The Fed opted to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% for the third consecutive meeting, but the decision was marked by a rare level of internal dissent not seen since 1992. Four officials broke from the majority, signaling a significant rift over how to handle the “oil shock” caused by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. With Brent crude hovering above $100 per barrel and headline inflation spiking to 3.3% in March, the central bank’s “wait-and-see” approach is being severely tested by rising energy costs and a resilient labor market, where jobless claims recently hit their lowest levels since 1969.

On the corporate front, the Q1 2026 earnings season reached a fever pitch as over 900 companies reported, led by the “Big Five” tech giants. Apple delivered a standout performance, surging over 3% on a revenue beat of $111.18 billion, while Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon faced intense scrutiny over their massive $700 billion AI infrastructure spend. Beyond technology, the energy sector took center stage as ExxonMobil and Chevron reported results that beat estimates amid the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz blockades—though headline profits declined sharply year-over-year due to unfavorable hedging and timing effects from the oil shock. Despite the geopolitical volatility, the S&P 500 has managed to absorb these shocks, with FactSet data showing a sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth, providing a fundamental cushion against the macro uncertainty.

As studied yesterday, April closed with a historical rally that was significantly stronger and more rapid than the recovery seen in April 2025. While there is clear bullish conviction and the long-term odds for continuation remain high, the very short term suggests a healthy pullback. This thesis is supported by indecisive price action on the daily timeframe and overbought conditions currently reflected in the RSI.

Also on the bullish front, I want to highlight today’s bounce off the 50DMA by the IGV Software ETF and leading software stocks in general. NOW, PLTR, CRM, ADBE, and many others I analyzed last Wednesday rallied today.

The purpose of the Wednesday publication is to provide market intelligence to both long-term investors and short-term traders, offering insights for informed decision-making. Links to recent publications are available below the chart.

My Most Recent Market Intelligence Publications:

And one posted since November about my 2026 SPX target:

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Upgrade to a paid subscription to unlock all of the premium content at smartreversals.com. Today, as with every Friday, I’m providing the S/R levels for the following securities. These levels frame price action and validate technical setups; if you trade any of these assets, this publication is essential for you:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Paid subscribers can suggest additional stocks, so the levels are modeled and delivered on Sundays.

Educational content about using Support and Resistance Levels:

• Support and Resistance Levels - How to Take Action

• Combining Weekly and Monthly Support and Resistance Levels

• Confluence - Find High Probability Setups Combining Indicators

• Mastering Options

• Anatomy of a Winning Trade

Let’s begin.

WEEKLY S/R LEVELS

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As detailed in last night’s special study on the current structure: charts do not repeat, but technical patterns do. So the probabilities for the SPX reaching the bullish target I projected in November 2025 for this year have increased significantly.

During the March correction, I noted that if a major top were truly in, it would have marked the first bull market in decades with only a single 5% pullback, the rest is history; the bounce happened as also anticipated on the Weekly Compass of March 28th.

In case you missed it, this is the study posted last night assessing the current price action using clear indicators and benchmarks considering rare price events observed in April.

The month ended, and last night I posted the daily levels with a downloadable file, I received good feedback, so let’s use this post to update for all the paid community the monthly levels for May.

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Unlock all the content by upgrading the subscription to the paid plan.

Also, I’m covering some questions that I have recently received about the daily levels.

COMBINED LEVELS:

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Good evening, everyone.

As presented in today’s special study, the market structure remains bullish. The probability of the SPX reaching 7,470 is significant given the current technical alignment. Since today is publication day, I will keep this brief: the SPX maintains a bullish bias for tomorrow. Futures are currently green, and with the CDL at 7,130.4…

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The S&P 500 rallied for three consecutive weeks when it bounced, gaining over 3% each week. Such an occurrence is rare in the stock market; the move was so rapid that apathy is the common human reaction, similar to what is observed during a breadth thrust signal.

Today, the market is consolidating after this sharp move. Considering the high expectations seen across social media and mainstream news for a decline, I am providing a technical study of these types of events in order to have an objective perspective.

Premium subscribers who have followed my analysis over the past two years know that I do not blindly trust statistical tables. Instead, I study the charts and assess common patterns to reach a conclusion. This approach successfully anticipated several key moves: the 2024 pullback to the 40-week moving average in the midst of euphoria (triggered by the Japan carry trade in August); a major correction to $4,800 after touching $6,109 that I projected at the end of 2024 (which materialized in March and April 2025 after reaching $6,147); and the bullish continuation during the period of apathy in April and May 2025, which evolved into new all-time highs. Most recently, in March, during the recent correction, I posted a study of previous bull markets highlighting that a major top was unlikely to be in, based on a comprehensive analysis of historical pullbacks and corrections.

Another special study posted two weeks ago, focused on gaps and the likelihood of them being filled, the conclusions continue playing out:

Neutrality is essential when analyzing the markets. Today, I am analyzing the current price structure to provide a longer-term view that transcends the daily charts and their inherent volatility. Remember, while charts do not repeat themselves, technical patterns do. The best example of this is the consensus in March about April 2026 to produce an identical lower low to the one observed in April 2025, but it didn’t happen. Charts are never exactly the same, but technical conditions frequently repeat and our conditions are not the ones of 2025, we will study the right benchmarks today.

SmartReversals assesses near term price movements using the Support and Resistance levels and the Weekly Compass and published every Friday and Saturday. The Wednesday edition serves a different purpose, providing a broader perspective with market intelligence that covers macro structures and fundamental analysis to help you navigate the current environment.

Today’s analysis provides a factual outlook for price action for the S&P 500 (SPX) over the next 1, 3, 6, and 12 months. This is not based on gut feelings or sophisticated tables that you cannot audit. Instead, I rely strictly on real price action and verifiable charts.

Today’s edition is essential reading for both long term investors and active traders. Upgrade to a paid subscription now to gain immediate access.

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The stock market update is also included today, assessing the moves of META, GOOG, AMZN, and MSFT.

Let’s begin.

SPX Outlook: Is the Top In, or is This a Pause Before New Highs?

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Hello everyone,

A critical week lies ahead. We are not only watching earnings from the tech giants like META, GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, and AAPL, but also other heavyweights on our watchlist including Visa (V), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Exxon Mobil (XOM).

On the economic front, the schedule is packed with market moving events:

Considering the importance of risk management and market context, the following studies are essential for your strategy. Upgrade to a premium plan today to unlock these exclusive reports:

• Weekly Compass (posted yesterday): Detailed technical charts and setups for the SPX, NDX, DJI, the full Magnificent Seven, Bitcoin, and key megacaps.

• Support and Resistance Levels (posted on Friday): Definitive price levels to help you gauge momentum and identify potential reversal points for each security.

• Mag 7 Fundamental Analysis (posted earlier this month when the market was panicking): A deep dive into the AI landscape and CAPEX challenges facing the S&P 500 leadership.

• Software Sector Deep Dive (posted last Wednesday): Is the recent selloff a potential opportunity?. With NOW bouncing 6% on Friday and PANW erasing its Thursday losses, many names in this space still have significant gaps to fill above current prices.

Upgrade now to the paid plan and unlock the content:

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The links are provided below. For paid subscribers, the customized Support and Resistance Levels are included in this edition. This weekend, MU, CRWD, IGV, NOW, and AMAT are among the most frequently suggested tickers.

1/5 → Weekly Compass:

2/5 → S/R Levels:

3/5 → Software Deep Dive:

4/5 → Magnificent Seven in the AI Era - The CAPEX Inflection Point:

5/5 → Customized S/R Levels to Download:

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The week ending April 24 delivered a technically rich but internally divided market. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 consolidated as anticipated in the previous Weekly Compass, with the SPX filling its gap at $7,051.2 as likely considered. Tech (NDX) surged +2.4% for the week, and the semiconductor sector printed a +9.1% breakout reaching unprecedented overbought conditions that we will study today. The Three Green Soldiers pattern on the SPX and NDX weekly chart mentioned last week is in bullish play, and Bitcoin continues moving north since it was anticipated three weeks ago. The cryptocurrency has gained +13.7% since, and Ethereum +9.9%.

But beneath the surface, a different story has been developing. The stock participation has decreased from 78% to 59% over four sessions while the SPX moved higher. Fewer than 53% of stocks are above their 50-day average. The rally that carried the index was not a broad market recovery. It was a semiconductor event, with INTC, TXN, MU, AMD, AVGO, and SMH doing the heavy lifting with weekly moves above 9% each, while software names (NOW, ADBE, ORCL, PLTR) collapsed or yielded gains respectively. The financial sector leadership (JPM, V, BRK.B) deteriorated. That divergence is the defining tension entering the most important earnings week of 2025: Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta all report.

Will semiconductors consolidate next week? Can the ‘Magnificent Five’ deliver the bullish results the market expects? Will non-tech sectors continue their decline, or can Software stage a recovery?

The indicators to navigate these questions are detailed in this publication. We analyze SMH, NVDA, AVGO, and AMD with specific levels that, if held, would validate a bullish continuation. Additionally, the charts for all the ‘Magnificent Seven’ are always here along with non-tech megacaps, identifying the critical support and resistance levels to watch. Regarding software, a special edition was posted last Wednesday following the sell-off; get access using the link:

Fundamental + technical Special: PLTR, ORCL, NOW, PANW, ADBE, CRM, SAP, CRWD

Another key read for the Magnificent Seven in the A.I. era was posted this month, this is key for the week ahead:

Investing in the AI Era: MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, META, AMZN, TSLA, AVGO, NVDA

Upgrade to the paid plan and unlock all the content with the charts and analysis for the week ahead.

Today’s Agenda

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for U.S. Indices, Volatility, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Magnificent Seven and other Megacaps.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Let’s begin,

Momentum Map: A New and Disparate Order

As anticipated few weeks ago, the red quadrant offered good opportunities for longs, and that was correct, after three weeks a new leadership emerged, but keep an eye on this hidden points to consider:

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U.S. equities ended a volatile week on Friday, April 24, with a stark divergence across major indices. Technology shares powered the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 to fresh record closing highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged behind to finish in negative territory. The Nasdaq emerged as the clear weekly winner, gaining 2.4% over the five days. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% for the week, to close at a record 7,165.08. However, the blue-chip Dow ended its three-week winning streak, falling 0.4% for the week to settle at 49,230.71.

Corporate earnings provided crucial direction for investors amid the macroeconomic volatility. Semiconductor companies drove much of the late week momentum, spearheaded by a historic 23.6% surge in Intel shares following strong first-quarter earnings and an optimistic financial outlook. This momentum sparked a broader rally across chipmakers, lifting peers such as AMD 14% and Qualcomm 11% in a single session. Tesla, the first Mag-7 reporting saw a weekly decline of -6%.

Software has been the second dominant theme this week (after Semiconductors). Interestingly, while individual names saw major sell-offs, the IGV (Software ETF) managed to close flat for the period.

The weekly chart below highlights bullish MACD crossovers over the last eight years, covering the 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2025 bear markets, alongside reversals in 2019, 2023, and 2024. Historically, 8 out of 10 of these signals were sustained, leading to continued bull trends. In only two instances was the signal invalidated, resulting in lower lows.

The data shows that bullish reversals at oversold levels (below zero) typically generate follow-through, which is the current case. For this month, the outlook remains bullish as long as the price stays above the 81.7 monthly level; a break below that mark would serve as an invalidation reference for the bullish thesis.

In addition to the technical analysis, a special fundamental study of Software was posted on Wednesday, providing a close-up on eight giants including PLTR, ORCL, CRWD, NOW, ADBE, PANW, and SAP. For investors and traders, the analyzed scenarios are a good read; some of these securities are showing interesting long-term opportunities. Get Access here:

• Software: Backbone of the Digital Economy

For new subscribers, three weeks ago another fundamental special was posted, that day for NVDA, TSLA, META, AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, and AVGO:

• Investing in the A.I. Era: The Magnificent Eight

Both specials analyze the context for each company and medium term scenarios related to their CAPEX recovery. Subscribe to the paid plan, and unlock the content.

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Find below the Support and Resistance levels for next week, including the crucial Central Weekly Level that validates momentum (bullish above / bearish below), and the Central Monthly Level that is crucial for both investors and traders, since it is breached few times per year and paid subscribers saw in March the implications of not recovering it quickly.

Maintaining a consistent watchlist is key to improving performance; it allows you to refine the timing of your entries and effectively rotate capital as new opportunities emerge. The levels posted every Friday begin with the SPX, and include the following as well:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

If you trade some of them, this publication is for you. Subscribe to the paid plan and unlock all the content at smartreversals.com, including educational publications about using support and resistance levels:

• Support and Resistance Levels - How to Take Action

• Combining Weekly and Monthly Support and Resistance Levels

• Confluence - Find High Probability Setups Combining Indicators

• Mastering Options

• Anatomy of a Winning Trade

Let’s begin.

WEEKLY LEVELS

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During the last months, the software stocks have been impacted in a significant way, but today they’re signaling reversals, the question is: Is that sustainable? Is this an entry point?

Price action is our pillar for technical analysis, and as we always do, understanding the fundamentals behind the chart is essential, today we cover eight of those companies across four roles. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and CrowdStrike (CRWD) anchor the security stack that every other workflow depends on. ServiceNow (NOW), SAP, and Oracle (ORCL) run the systems of record for workflow, resource planning, and database that touch nearly every Global 2000 balance sheet. Adobe (ADBE) and Salesforce (CRM) own the creative supply chain and the customer relationship on a scale no new entrant can easily replicate. Palantir (PLTR) is the pure play on institutional decision making at the point where data meets operational reality.

Five concepts run through every section that follows:

• Data Gravity describes the pull that accumulated customer data exerts on every new workload, making it cheaper to add capability to an existing platform than to migrate away from it.

• Switching Inertia describes the operational cost of ripping out a system that thousands of users, integrations, and compliance processes already depend on.

• Net Retention Rate measures whether existing customers are spending more over time, which is the cleanest single signal of whether a platform is still the center of gravity for its category.

• Remaining Performance Obligations measure contracted but unrecognized revenue, which indicates how much future demand has already been committed by customers in writing.

• Platformization, the process of consolidating multiple point products onto a single vendor, is the operating model that turns a collection of tools into a toll booth. Agentic AI is the shift from humans clicking through software to software taking actions on behalf of humans, which raises the stakes on every part of the stack below.

The revenue signal that these moats are holding shows up in the backlog disclosures. Oracle carries $553 billion in Remaining Performance Obligations, up 325% year on year. SAP reports cloud backlog of €77 billion, up 30%. Palo Alto Networks shows RPO of $16.0 billion, up 23%. ServiceNow closed 244 deals above $1 million in a single quarter. Palantir closed a record $4.3 billion in total contract value in Q4 alone. These numbers suggest this is an industry where customers are signing multi-year commitments at an accelerating pace because they have concluded that consolidating spend with a small number of trusted platforms is the safest way to deploy AI without losing control of it.

Net Retention Rate tells the same story from the installed base. Palantir reported a dollar-based net retention rate of 139% in Q4. CrowdStrike holds gross retention around 97% with dollar-based net retention of 115%. These are figures that describe customers who are not only staying but spending materially more each year. That is what Platformization produces when it works. A customer lands with one module, the vendor delivers, the customer adds a second module because the integration is already there, and within three years the vendor is embedded across the enterprise and the relationship has compounded into a consumption curve rather than a license renewal. The final piece of the structural case is the shift to Agentic AI. The incumbent platforms are not defending the old interface. They are building the next one. Salesforce has sold more than 29,000 Agentforce deals and driven the platform to $800 million in ARR in fifteen months. ServiceNow has Now Assist ACV above $600 million and is targeting $1 billion by the end of 2026. Palo Alto Networks is running Prisma AIRS at triple the customer count quarter over quarter. Palantir’s AIP is the reason U.S. commercial revenue grew 137% in Q4. The agents are not an external threat to these platforms. They are the new product line, sold to the same customers, billed through the same contracts, and grounded in the same proprietary data. The toll booth is not being removed. The toll is being collected on a newer road.

Eight Companies - Four Roles - One Stack

Security comes first because every other workflow depends on it. Operations anchors the systems of record that hold the chart of accounts, the service catalog, and the supplier contracts. The creative and front office layer owns the customer relationship and the content pipeline that surrounds it. The intelligence layer is a single name because, at institutional scale, there is only one pure play on decision making at the point where data meets operational reality. What follows is the case on each platform individually, the forward financial profile that anchors it, and the single risk that would most meaningfully change the thesis.

PANW (Palo Alto Networks)

Palo Alto Networks is the broadest cybersecurity platform in the market and the clearest example of Platformization in security. The company serves more than 85,000 customers in 150 countries, including 77 percent of the Global 2000, and has spent the last five years converting itself from a firewall vendor into an end-to-end platform that spans network security, cloud security, and the security operations center. In Q2 FY 2026 that strategy produced Next-Generation Security ARR of $6.33 billion, up 33 percent year over year, and SASE ARR above $1.5 billion growing 40 percent, which makes the company the fastest-growing SASE provider at scale.

The February 2026 close of the $25 billion CyberArk acquisition added a full platform of Identity Security capabilities at the moment when identity became the central attack surface for enterprise AI. The Chronosphere deal extended the portfolio into observability. Together these acquisitions pushed the longer-term NGS ARR target to $20 billion by FY 2030, which implies a five-year compound annual growth rate near 29%.

→Again, 29% compound annual growth rate (we have studied the relevance of growth). Platformization momentum is holding in the underlying metrics. The company added roughly 110 net new platformizations in Q2 to reach a total above 1,550, and XSIAM crossed $500 million in ARR with more than 600 customers each paying on average close to $1 million. Non-GAAP operating margin reached 30.3 percent, the third consecutive quarter above 30 percent, and Remaining Performance Obligations grew 23 percent to $16.0 billion.

KEY RISK

Chinese authorities notified domestic firms earlier this year to halt use of cybersecurity software from select U.S. and Israeli vendors, including Palo Alto Networks. Direct China exposure is estimated in the low single digits of revenue, but the broader message matters. Geopolitical pressure is lengthening approval cycles across several international regions, and CyberArk and Chronosphere integration will weigh on near-term free cash flow margins, with FY 2026 FCF margin trimmed to 37 percent, before the platform benefits compound toward the 40 percent target by FY 2028.

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We are moving forward with the chart analysis and price targets for PANW, CRWD, PLTR, ORCL, NOW, SAP, ADBE, alongside individual deep dives for each company and the stock market update featuring tomorrow’s daily levels.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND PRICE TARGETS:

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Last night, when I shared the daily levels, we identified 709.4 as the Central Daily Level (CDL) for the SPY. The logic was straightforward: if that level was lost, the targets to watch were 706.5 and 702.8. Today’s session validated the model, 709.4 acted as the resistance zone for the day, while 706.5 served as the effective support where the price found its floor.

Just as weekly levels provide a roadmap for that period, daily levels frame price action for the “here and now.” Consider these examples of precision from today:

• IWM: Remained resilient, trading between its CDL of 275.5 and the upside target of 277.9. Both levels were anticipated in last night’s update.

• TSLA: In the Weekly Compass, I mentioned resistance at the 200DMA and 40WMA, suggesting consolidation after the recent rally. Today, the CDL of 400.5 was lost right at the open, and price fell to 391.8, a daily support level projected last night.

Why These Levels Matter

Having these levels at your fingertips allows you to anticipate potential destinations and, more importantly, identify potential reversals.

For example, look at the 15-minute chart for NVDA: at 11:15 AM, a reversal candle printed at 198.5 (our second support level for the day posted yesterday). From that precise point, the price rallied, recovering from a -1.6% drop to close back above its CDL of 200.

The Roadmap for Tomorrow

The daily levels for tomorrow’s session are ready, starting with the SPX:

• Scenario A (Bullish/Flat): If the index stays above 7,105.4, expect a flat consolidation or continued bullish bias.

• Scenario B (Downside): If that support fails, the lower layers of defense are posted below.

Using daily levels provides early validation signals and to understand price action between Weekly and Monthly Levels that are wider.

Daily Levels for April 21st

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The SPX closed the week overbought, suggesting a potential consolidation is coming, and on Friday I posted the chart for XOM with a bullish reversal spirit. Today, Oil Futures are jumping +6.5%, the oscillator suggests a reversal, let’s see if the 5DMA is recovered.

Along with the jump in oil, the ES Futures are declining 0.7% at the moment of sending this post. The consolidation scenario for the SPX was considered in the Weekly Compass; let’s monitor central weekly levels to consider any relevant reversal validation.

In case you missed them, the links for the Weekly Compass and Support and Resistance Levels for this coming week are here. As paid subscribers suggested a set of 70+ stocks to be analyzed with the S/R levels approach, the downloadable Excel file is here.

Weekly Compass: Market Conditions - Setups Blueprint for the Week Ahead

Support and Resistance Levels for the Week of April 20th

Special Study on Unfilled Gaps in the SPX since 1970

Customized Levels Analyzed for Premium Subscribers

The downloadable file is below, along with the daily levels for the SPX, all the magnificent seven, and all the securities we track.

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Last week we studied the relevance of $6,816, with historical charts that presented how important is the recovery of the 20 weekly average, now that it happened it can be mentioned here for everyone, with the SPX +4.5% above that line.

Receding conflict in the Middle East provided the primary lift for sentiment. Equities rallied after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz completely open following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon. The reopening of this trade route triggered a sharp decline in energy markets. Brent crude futures dropped 8.7% to $90.71 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures slid 10.6% to $84.69. Despite the broad shift into riskier assets, gold remained elevated at approximately $4,823, reflecting sustained interest in traditional safe havens. In crypto, Bitcoin and Ethereum have rallied above 6% this week so far.

Technically speaking, the selloff in oil has reached oversold conditions, and yesterday I posted in the S/R levels edition the chart for XOM, that is currently suggesting a potential spike (spike does not mean all time highs).

Corporate earnings and technology developments also drove significant price action. Oracle gained nearly 30% for the week, boosted by new artificial intelligence agreements, while Goldman Sachs rose 3.13% on Friday following solid first-quarter results. On the negative side, Netflix dropped between 9.7% after issuing a disappointing revenue forecast for the second quarter. The quantum computing sector saw massive volatility, with stocks like D-Wave Quantum and IonQ soaring over 50% after Nvidia launched a new open-source quantum AI model.

Despite of the rally, NFLX proves that every company must prove their ratios otherwise Wall Street will punish a disappointing earnings result. From our Blueprint of trades posted last Saturday, we saw good performance this week, with NVDA, AAPL, QQQ, JPM, IBIT, ETHA, META, and even NFLX surpassing their bullish targets. PLTR, TSLA, and V reversed as expected also printing rallies, while LLY was the only security that went in the unexpected direction but our Central Weekly Level (CWL) used as a reference for stop losses protects capital.

Every setup posted in this weekend’s publication includes price targets, invalidation levels, and a risk-reward ratio. This allows you to make informed decisions based on technical indicators and modeled levels where algorithms typically react, as paid subscribers have experienced for over two years. Unlock the analysis for this week by upgrading your subscription.

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The week’s price action underscores a market recalibrating around two powerful forces: geopolitical relief and AI-driven momentum. With the S&P 500 now at record highs and the Nasdaq on a historic run, the burden of proof shifts to earnings season to validate these elevated levels. Investors should watch whether the energy pullback translates into improved consumer sentiment and whether tech leadership can broaden beyond the usual names. For now, the bulls are firmly in control, but complacency at all-time highs rarely pays.

Securities Analyzed Every Week:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Having a constant set of securities allows you to anticipate rotations and to time better individual names. If you trade some of the securities listed, this publication is for you.

Today’s Agenda

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for the SPX, U.S. Indices, Volatility, Breadth, and Bitcoin.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps (20+ charts).

Let’s begin.

Momentum Map

To our new subscribers: welcome. It is always helpful to recall the cyclical nature of the market. Stocks bounce from oversold conditions (improving), rally into strength (leading), hit overbought extremes, and eventually pullback (weakening) to become laggards. I integrated this rotation feature into the Weekly Compass a year ago, and it has been remarkably consistent.

We saw this cycle play out with the euphoria in NFLX after the 2025 crash, followed by PLTR, MSFT, and Bitcoin, all of which declined sharply in Q4 2025. Meanwhile, names like GOOG, LLY, SLV, and GLD looked unstoppable in rally mode until they fell sharply. As we stand today, the cycle will inevitably continue its course.

All the securities mentioned are analyzed in our Momentum Map, allowing you to identify opportunities and threats in a single glance. Combined with the individual charts included here, you can easily assess whether a reversal is imminent or if the current momentum still has room to run.

Using this tool the bullish reversal thesis for stocks like META, COST, BITCOIN, and even NFLX were anticipated recently. Just last weekend this approach was key to consider the bounces for PLTR, V, and TSLA.

The updated momentum map, followed by the SPX analysis, the setups blueprint for next week, and the individual charts continue here:

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The targets were based on these modeled support and resistance levels, and I was doubtful of some of them reaching their target considering the previous two rally weeks, but once again, these levels frame price action and in the same way that they worked in bearish weeks during march, they worked well during this bullish move.

Top Performing Setups

• Bitcoin / IBIT: This was my high-conviction play regardless of broader market action. IBIT hit the extended target of $43.7 and closed the week at $43.9, delivering a robust +5.7% move. If you trade Bitcoin the move is even better for a +9% this week so far. Bitcoin has a very high probability setup.

• NVDA: The bullish move based on the volume shelf acting as launchpad sent the price to the extended target of $200.4. The stock exceeded expectations, closing the week at $201.6 for a +6.9% gain.

• META: I have highlighted its fundamentals and oversold technicals. From the extended target of $684.8 (+8.7%), the stock surged to close the week at $688.5 with a +9.4% move.

• ETHA: The extended target was $18.1 (+6.4%). The ETF closed the week at $18.37.

• QQQ: The extended target was $663.3. The index reached $648.0, marking a strong +6.14% weekly gain that exceeded expectations.

• AAPL: The target of $266.5 (+2.3%) was easily cleared, with the price closing the week at $270.0 (+3.67%) actually nearing the extended target of 272.6 today during the day.

Target Hits and Technical Discipline

• NFLX: The stock reached and exceeded our extended target of $106.8 (+3.7%) prior to its earnings report.

  Strategic Note on Earnings: As seen with recent price action, the market is punishing stocks that do not provide perfect guidance. Trading through earnings is a lottery; setups can flip instantly regardless of technicals if the Street finds something unappealing. Same as 3 months ago, if a bullish target is reached, locking gains is prudent.

• JPM: Despite initial weakness, the price stayed above our invalidation level (CWL) of $304.6. It trended bullishly toward the $316.5 target, reaching a high of $314.9. Given the proximity, we consider this move constructive.

• Bounces: The expectations for relief bounces in PLTR, TSLA, and V all materialized.

Invalidation (1 out of 12)

• LLY: This was our only outlier. It lost the $934.0 invalidation level, ending the week down -1.3%. While the structure remains somewhat constructive, it must recover key levels to reclaim the bullish thesis.

That said, the Support and Resistance Levels proved their worth allowing us to anticipate potential targets and managing risk in the case of LLY thanks to the Central Weekly Level (CWL) that was breached.

Looking Ahead

The levels for the coming week are posted below, identifying the “Bullish Above” and “Bearish Below” zones for both the weekly and monthly timeframes. We will analyze the charts in full tomorrow to identify which securities have the highest probability of continuing their bullish momentum.

Securities Analyzed Constantly Every Week:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

The SPX is the core of this publication, and the rest of the watchlist combines sectors and assets, always with one principle: High Daily Volume that allows you to fill orders rapidly and use the options market if preferred.

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Intriguing Chart : XOM

Hammer candle with high daily volume breaching the lower Bollinger band, oversold oscillator, a gap above today’s candle, and a gigantic gap when considering the volume at price (green horizontal bars). This is usually a good combination for a bounce.

Dead cat or a sustainable one? The answer is in the S/R levels below.

Let’s begin.

WEEKLY LEVELS

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Stage of the Market: SPX and NDX Price Targets

I share high-probability trades and technical analysis on Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays including special levels for paid subscribers, and I also post on Wednesdays, focusing on fundamental analysis and special market intelligence assessments. These are my must-read publications for both long-term investors and traders.

For today, I am releasing a special publication analyzing gaps. What technical structure is present when a gap remains unfilled? There are over 19 gaps in the SPX since 1970 that have never been filled. Today, I am going to decode the similarities and differences between those historical gaps and the one we have right now.

High Probability Setups

Before continuing, my high probability setups are delivering and exceeding the expected results, last Saturday I anticipated the relevance of $6,816 for the SPX, and how likely would be for the bullish setups to perform if the index conquered that level.

The results are strong:

• First, NVIDIA (NVDA) had a bullish target of $194.5 for a 3.1% gain; currently, the weekly gain stands at 5.4%.

• I also indicated Apple (AAPL), which had a bullish setup with a target of $266 for a 2.3% gain; so far this week, the stock has gained 2.3%.

• Another high-probability note was for QQQ, highlighting $623.7 for a 2.1% gain and an extended target of $636.3 for a 4.1% gain. Right now, that weekly move accounts for 4.3%.

• I also highlighted the high likelihood of bullish reversals for Palantir (PLTR), Tesla (TSLA), and Visa (V). Palantir is currently rallying 11% this week, Tesla is up 12%, and Visa has rallied 3.8%. All three were identified as high-probability reversals.

• I posted bullish setups for JPM and LLY, their targets have not been reached, JPM remains above the key weekly level; if the central weekly level of $304 is lost, that will trigger a cut of the position (my daily levels help to anticipate these type of moves), in the case of LLY the reference for stop losses at $933 was breached, so capital was protected avoiding a further -3% move.

• Finally, Bitcoin is also looking constructive for the week; I presented the reasons for a bullish move, and so far, Bitcoin has gained 5.6% this week.

That’s 7 out of 9 securities moving as anticipated = 77% success rate.

Don’t hesitate, market conditions remain favorable, and while consolidations are likely, we will break down probabilities today. Upgrading your subscription is a no-brainer.

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Now, let’s begin this special study and market update.

SPX $6,618: Decoding the Rarity of the Unfilled Gap

Using the same approach that documented the December 2024 selloff toward $4,800, and the same logic I presented a month ago, highlighting that a major top was unlikely because pullbacks and corrections are normal, I will now detail the likely outcome for this gap and the projected course for the SPX.

Let’s begin.

SPX - Setups for Gaps Unfilled - What to Expect:

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Once in bullish territory, the high-probability setups were triggered. NVDA, NFLX, META, and QQQ had validation, and every one of them has since reached its extended bullish targets. This is a good example of the market’s mathematical nature and the precision of our levels used as triggers.

While the run has been stellar, let’s remain disciplined. The daily levels for the SPX, ETFs, and the Magnificent Seven for tomorrow are now live. Tomorrow is a critical day for the stock market; navigating this rally using our levels remains the key to managing risk.

This is the most important chart today, unlock the analysis by upgrading the subscription to the paid plan.

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The ticker analyzed here is:

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The SPX showed resilience this morning. I shared the key levels in the premium chat before the market opened, featuring the ES_F chart holding the 50-DMA.

• SPX: $6,823 was the essential daily level separating bullish and bearish conditions. After a bounce at the $6,786 support zone at 9:45 AM, a daily bottom emerged, by 9:50 AM, $6,801 was reclaimed, and by 12:20 PM, the SPX formally turned green, launching toward our high daily target of 6,876.

Price levels function like a staircase when momentum is high, while also serving as a roadmap for anticipating potential reversal zones.

For the QQQ, I shared an example with everyone this morning. While the price sat at 605 in premarket, I highlighted 607.9 as the key recovery line in the best case scenario. Once recovered, the upward move mirrored the broader strength seen across the indices, the close for QQQ was exactly at $617.4, see the upper level in the table posted this morning before the market opened, the high was $617.4.

For this reason I maintain that this modeled S/R levels approach frame price action.

Weekly Compass & The Road Ahead

Beyond the indices, I anticipated on Saturday high probabilities of bullish reversals in specific oversold names, that rallied today: TSLA (+0.99%), V (+1.65%), and PLTR (+3.37%). These stocks are essential to watch now; they appear to be following the same recovery path we previously saw in META and NFLX. Unlock the paid plan and get access to the premium content.

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For PLTR, the levels are key, it isn’t “out of the woods” yet, today’s high matched our Annual Level of $134.3 with impressive accuracy. That was the exact high of the session.

Bitcoin is up +3%, a bullish setup anticipated with high conviction. There were other names analyzed such as META, NVDA, AAPL, QQQ, JPM that were resilient today. However, transparency is my priority: momentum could still vanish later this week.

The VIX continues to suggest caution, especially as today’s move occurred on lower volume. This is why Daily Levels are vital. They help swing traders identify early signals of recovery or weakness within the wider weekly and monthly brackets, while providing high-frequency traders with high-conviction scalp targets.

Below are the updated Daily Levels for tomorrow. As a new feature for our premium community, I have also included the Downloadable Weekly Levels File to help you study the overarching structure.

SPX Levels for Tomorrow

SPX is the core index in our publication, and the main ETFs, Magnificent Seven, Megacaps, Metals and Crypto are also analyzed with the same approach:

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U.S. equities experienced another weekly rally. Major indices surged on Wednesday following news of a tentative two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, which also facilitated a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite climbed 3.5% and 4.4% respectively during the week. Last week I highlighted the major relevance of $6,503 for the SPX, and despite intra-day volatility, the index managed to close abobe that level on Monday and Tuesday, and considering the weekly setup preceding price action, the bullish resolution was just consistent with the technical conditions.

With that level conquered, the high probability setups performed very well. Premium subscribers received last week the bullish targets and invalidation levels for: SPY, QQQ, AMD, NFLX, NVDA, AAPL, COST, META, AGVO, and MSFT; also with the bearish setup for XOM. All of them reached their targets, even Microsoft that reversed its move during the week. The success rate was 100%. Unlock the setups for next week, including the technical charts and the market overview, with the SPX as the core of this publication.

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Premium subscribers have access to special analyses where I noted that a correction at this stage of the market was normal. I also highlighted why a transition into a bear market at this juncture would be highly unusual. However, considering many questions I received during the end of march, I outlined the worst case scenario for a decline. I always listen to your questions, and when I notice a recurring pattern, I address it through dedicated reports. Those special publications are a must-read for both traders and long-term investors:

Access » Bear Market Bottoms in One Predictable Pattern

When you subscribe to the paid plan, you get special analysis that give north to our trading setups, the complete Market Intelligence Library is here, including educational content:

Access » Market Intelligence Library and eBooks

In the crypto space, Bitcoin surged past our the key $69,7K level early in the week as risk appetite recovered, if you’re a Crypto enthusiast, today’s publication presents an essential setup.

Macro News to Consider

Economic indicators painted a mixed picture. The March Consumer Price Index met expectations, rising 0.9% for the month and 3.3% year over year. This headline figure was heavily influenced by a 10.9% monthly jump in energy prices, the sharpest increase since September 2005. Gasoline prices soared 21.2% for the month, pushing the national average above $4 a gallon. On a more constructive note, core CPI (which excludes volatile food and energy costs) came in slightly cooler than anticipated, rising 0.2% for the month and 2.6% annually. The labor market remained surprisingly firm, with March non-farm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, far exceeding the forecast of 65,000. Last but not least, the University of Michigan’s sentiment index dropped 11% in April to 47.6. One-year inflation expectations also jumped to 4.8% from 3.8% in March.

Today’s Agenda

• Technical Signals Vs Sentiment: Key level to watch next week for the SPX, completing the 28 years study posted last night with the levels.

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the opportunities in a single chart.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for the SPX, U.S. Indices, Key ETFs, Magnificent 7, Crypto, and Megacaps.

• Market Context: Analyses for SPX, VIX, NDX, DJI, Bitcoin, and Breadth

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps (20+ charts).

Let’s continue, upgrade your subscription to the paid plan and unlock the content.

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Technical Signals vs. Sentiment

Considering the questions I received at the end of March, I’m keeping several bullish signals on the SPX, NDX, IWM, DJI, and Bitcoin charts that I posted when anticipating the bounce. It is essential to analyze technical events objectively, removing emotion from the equation, when you’re a real experienced trader you don’t panic, you manage risk and trust the process. My goal is to help you become a better investor and trader, markets will always face corrections, and you must remember which signals preceded the bounce in previous occurrences.

SPX: The Key Level to Watch Next Week

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When the market began its bounce on March 31, essential levels were reclaimed. First, the Central Daily Level (our “Bullish Above / Bearish Below” indicator) sat at 6,362. The price opened above this level, providing an immediate bullish signal to subscribers who use our levels for validation. Subsequently, our Central Weekly Level (CWL) of $6,458 “sealed the deal,” confirming the weekly reversal and validating the bullish setups for the SPY, DIA, IWM, and QQQ anticipated the prior week.

Last week, as market conditions improved, I posted a set of bullish setups with the following results:

• AMD: Exceeded its extended target of $234.3 (+7.7%), peaking at a +12.6% weekly gain.

• META: Highlighted for bullish continuation with an extended target of $629.2 (+9.5%); it closed the week at $629.86.

• AVGO: Surpassed its modest +5.7% extended target to reach a massive +18% gain.

• MSFT: Reached its extended target of $385 (a +3.3% move) before retracing.

• COST: The extended target as 1,036 for a +2.1% move, the price reversed exactly after touching that point on Thursday.

• SPY: With an extended target of $677.1, for a +3.2% move, the high of the week was $682, only five points above the target, allowing an easy profit taking or adjustments of stops.

• QQQ: $608.2 was the extended expectation with a +4.0% move, the actual weekly move was 4.4%

How are these high-probability targets set? They are derived from professional technical analysis and these modeled Support and Resistance levels, which are updated every Friday. Each setup includes a Central Weekly Level to manage stops and invalidate the thesis, along with primary targets, extended targets, and “inversion” levels if the setup flips from bullish to bearish.

Not all setups are bullish. For example, XOM was identified with a bearish target of $154.7 (a -3.7% move) as long as the price remained below $165.5. The actual weekly move was a significant -5.9%.

Unlock the Support and Resistance Levels for next week including these securities:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

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Having a constant set of securities help you managing rotations and anticipating moves in your favorite individual names.

Today I’m adding some historical charts that will provide references to manage the gap printed on Wednesday for the SPX and our securities in general, including the bearish gap for XOM and VXX.

Unlock essential information for your trading next week.

SPX: A Strategic Multi-Year Perspective on Key Support

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Essential chart to watch:

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We are in Year 1 of the largest infrastructure buildout in human history. This report examines where the money is going, which eight companies are positioned to capture the return, and how investors should think about the risk embedded in the current AI spending cycle.

Today’s edition features a deep dive into the fundamentals of the tech megacaps: NVDA, AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, META, AMZN, AVGO, and TSLA. We assess two distinct scenarios that separate a speculative bubble from a major technological development, including the key milestones and risks for each company.

This analysis is a must-read for both long-term investors and active traders. The Stock Market Update continues following this study.

The Central Question

If $600 billion per year is being poured into AI infrastructure by 2027, where is that money actually generating immediate profit? The answer reveals the structure of the entire investment thesis and determines which companies belong in a long-duration AI portfolio today.

The Capital Gap: Spending Vs. Monetization

The gap between AI infrastructure spending and AI-generated revenue is the defining risk of this investment cycle. Companies are spending hundreds of billions today to build capacity for a demand curve that will materialize over the next three to five years. The CFOs authorizing this spending are not betting that monetization will catch up immediately. They are betting that if they do not spend this money now, they will lose the ability to compete in the 2030s entirely.

This creates a specific investment dynamic. The companies spending the most capital today, Amazon at $200 billion, Alphabet at $175 to $185 billion, Meta at $115 to $135 billion, and Microsoft at an accelerating pace, are compressing their near-term free cash flow to build infrastructure that will generate revenue in Year 2 and Year 3. The two companies capturing the majority of that spending as immediate high-margin revenue today are NVIDIA and Broadcom.

The industry is in Year 1 of this cycle. The spending decisions made in 2025 and 2026 will determine which platforms dominate AI computing infrastructure through the early 2030s. Eight companies occupy eight distinct positions within this structure.

Eight Companies, One Ecosystem

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) | The Infrastructure Tax Collector

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Today’s intraday pullback validates that warning and is worth studying through the levels shared yesterday. Remember, the QQQ was flagged to “raise alarms” if $587.9 was lost. Overnight price action confirmed this bearish shift, validating the spike in volatility. Upon the opening bell, the selloff accelerated toward the extended daily support level of $579.3. This overextended price action ultimately triggered a sharp bullish reversal at 11:15 AM.

The 15-minute chart highlights a textbook bounce: a Dragonfly Doji printed immediately after an overextended breach of the lower Bollinger Band. As shown in the charts below, the technical principles for short-term timeframes are identical to those used for long-term analysis.

For the SPX, the daily levels posted last night worked just as effectively as they did for the QQQ and many other securities. In this case, the “Bullish Above / Bearish Below” level was lost, triggering alarms for a bearish move at the opening. While that move played out, the index also found firm support at the final daily layer posted last night.

The bounce was not a guarantee; we simply have a bullish weekly setup as analyzed in the Weekly Compass. Technically speaking, the overnight rally is not a surprise, as the price remained above the Central Daily Level and the CML by the close.

Unlock the daily levels for Wednesday, April 8, for the following securities. All levels have been updated below:

• SPX & ETFs: SPX, SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

• Sectors: XLC, XLF, XLE, XLK, XLY, XLI, XLB, XLRE, XLP, XLV, XLU

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When Upgrading, make sure to read these essential analyses for traders and long term investors:

1. Weekly Compass Posted on Sunday with the High Probability Setups

2. Previous Market Tops - 50 Years Study

3. Bear Market Bottoms in one Single Pattern

Let’s continue with the daily levels for tomorrow.

SPX - Bullish Weekly Target Crossed:

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