“The SPX begins the week weak around its Central Daily Level (CDL) of 7,417. If there are no major negative headlines during these days, reaching 7,530.5.” The publication is here:

Not only did the market avoid negative headlines, but it caught a powerful tailwind from positive updates regarding a potential peace agreement in Iran.

As also detailed in the Weekly Compass, the Magnificent Seven were likely to bounce. That is what materialized today, led by our High-Probability Setups: MSFT (+2.3%), GOOG (+2.5%), META (+4.8%), and AMZN (+3.1%) 🎯.

IBIT also rallied as expected 🎯, matching the precise technical analysis from last weekend, which caught the bottom for Bitcoin by identifying an asymmetric risk-to-reward profile for buyers using well explained technical indicators.

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Today was a day full of gaps, what does it mean?

The analysis is here, including the essential levels to monitor for the SPX and all the magnificent 7 since AAPL, TSLA and NVDA also were constructive today, but all of them with gaps.

Let’s assess the key levels for tomorrow and the rest of the week, including SpaceX (SPCX). As outlined in the levels posted yesterday, the asset remained bullish above 162.0, targeting 175 and 189. In fact, 175 was hit before noon, and after hours of consolidation, the price continued its upward expansion to close the day at 192, slightly above our extended 189 target 🎯.

I must emphasize: the levels I provide are not arbitrary diagonals or gut-feeling lines. They are mathematically anticipated based on exactly where institutional algorithms react, as our paid subscribers have witnessed firsthand for over two years at SmartReversals.com. Having the levels ahead of time help you to plan your trades with proper targets and risk management.

SPX, Magnificent Seven, and SpaceX: Key Price Levels

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The week that ended Friday the 12th was highly volatile, with the SPX bouncing after a -4% decline. One week earlier I posted a note pointing to the likely downside destination in the 7,311 zone, an area “where potential spikes could occur”. The Fibonacci approach worked well, fine-tuned by the Support and Resistance Levels model.

With that in place, paid subscribers navigated the week with both weekly and daily levels for the SPX. The central daily level (CDL) was reclaimed on Thursday the 11th, which gave the bullish move its initial validation.

Here are the key reads for this week:

Market Intelligence: On Wednesday I posted a special study on IPOs. SPCX began trading on Friday, and its first session, which also stands as its first weekly move, ended as follows. Unlock this premium content to see it. The price action printed on Friday (charted below) already resembles two of the IPOs we studied.

Support and Resistance Levels: Weekly levels for our regular watchlist, including SPX, NDX, IWM, SMH, QQQ, NVDA, AMZN, TSLA, AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, and other megacaps listed in the publication. The key central level to stay in bullish momentum for the SPX is here along with the bullish targets, same case for the Magnificent Seven which may bounce from oversold conditions, the key level to recover for each one and bullish targets are here.

Weekly Compass: The technical charts for the main setups, always including the indices, ETFs, the Magnificent Seven, other megacaps, and Bitcoin. I flagged Bitcoin’s bullish reversal last week, and it has bounced +6% since the previous Weekly Compass. This edition also includes the SPX CDL for Monday the 15th.

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Customized Support and Resistance Levels: Paid subscribers can suggest a stock of their choice each weekend in the premium chat, and I then model the weekly levels for the week ahead. That way you can plan before the market opens, choose which stock and setup looks best, and measure risk versus reward using the price targets and the invalidation levels, which serve as references for setting stops according to your own risk tolerance.

Here are the securities modeled for next week. The levels for Space X (SPCX) are included, along with others such as DELL, SOXL, SOXS, ADBE, and many more:

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U.S. equities closed a volatile week with broad gains. Falling oil prices followed geopolitical headlines, and the blockbuster SPCX IPO stabilized the tape after a -4% sharp selloff in the SPX and -6% in the NDX. The S&P 500 bounced and closed positive +0.65% for the week. the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) added 2.3%, and the Dow Jones climbed 0.7%. The week was not clean, the S&P 500 and the Dow swung wildly mid-week on optimism about the conflict with Iran. Small caps joined the late rally with the Russell 2000 advanced 4.0% during the week.

SpaceX (SPCX): The company sold 555.6 million shares at $135 each, a $1.77 trillion valuation. The stock opened at $150, an 11.0% premium, and held 20.0% above the offer price through its debut. The the soft action shows declines in other mega-cap tech names as investors sell what they own to fund what they want. See the weekly heat map below with the Magnificent Seven declining while the broad SPX was green. Only TSLA made it for a bounce and semiconductors held firm.

I wrote a special study about IPOs, the move just observed for SPCX is not new, unlock the study focused on technical moves, seems that SpaceX is moving like two of them already.

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Macro: Consumer data improved at the margin. The preliminary June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index rose to 48.9 from 44.8 in May, helped by lower gasoline prices early in the month. Inflation concerns remain elevated. The setup into next week is constructive but earned session by session.

Setups Blueprint: AAPL, MSFT, SPX, AVGO, GLD declined as expected this week🎯, and VXX bounced as expected 🎯, all of them averaging a +5% gain 🎯🎯🎯. With that said, I reframed a standard industry momentum map to a proprietary Heat Rank where I set the technical conditions from overbought to oversold and the reversal risk for all the securities in our watchlist. It has been useful to set a blueprint where every subscriber see the stocks better classified and navigated the ones highlighted or subscribers’ preferred stocks. This applies for the following watchlist:

• Indices & ETFs: SPX/SPY, NDX/QQQ, DJI/DIA, IWM, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX, ETHA, IBIT

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

If you invest or trade one or some of them, they are always analyzed in my publications including bullish/bearish conditions, specific price targets, and invalidation levels. Subscribe to the paid plan and unlock it.

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Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts + levels for Indices, ETFs, Volatility, Breadth, and Crypto.

• The Heat Rank: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

Let’s begin.

SPX: Initial Bearish Target Nailed - Elliot Wave Assessment for Continuation

Last Friday, I posted with the weekly S/R levels the most likely pullback destination using the Fibonacci retracement approach, with $7,311 as the confluence zone with our support levels. The thesis proved accurate, the current bounce could still be part of a pullback considering the recent lack of conviction. Let’s examine reversal zones from an Elliott Wave perspective, again combined with our S/R levels to increase reliability, the arrows in the chart highlight the likely destination zone for this move:

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• AAPL: My blueprint anticipated a decline to an extended target of 297 (-3.1%). It extended further, hitting its 3rd support at 290 for a weekly move of -5.3% 🎯.

• SPX: Targeted a -1.2% decline to 7,294. This acted as the support zone where the price bounced on both Wednesday and Thursday 🎯.

• MSFT: I expected a decline to 398.6 (-4.3%). The actual move went deeper to -6.3%, exceeding our bearish expectations 🎯.

• GLD: Targeted an extended bearish level of 383.7 (-3.2%). It bottomed below at 371 (-6.2%), hitting a weekly level we modeled and posted a week ago 🎯.

• VXX: My technical set anticipated a bounce to 26.1, with an extended target of 27. The exact top of the week was 27 (+7.2%) 🎯, marking another great hit.

• AVGO: Targeted 349. The weekly low was 370 (-4.1%). Profitable ✅, and directionally correct.

• BRK.B: Expected a move to 496.8 (+1.8%). Price action remained constructive above the central weekly level 👍.

All seven setups were directionally correct, with five hitting their exact targets, one still very profitable, and one still in progress. 6 out of 7 correct for a 85% success rate with a 5% average gain.

The Setups Blueprint includes targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in our watchlist. While I handpick the ones with the best technical conditions to reach their targets, paid subscribers who want to follow specific securities like QQQ, IWM, AMZN, TSLA, NVDA or others, they will always find them analyzed with precise price targets and clear bullish or bearish conditions.

For example, these setups were also included in the Setups Blueprint from last weekend:

• LLY: Target of 1181 (+4.4%) caught the exact top of the week 🎯.

• JPM: Target of 319 (+2.4%) was met perfectly today 🎯.

• AMZN: I forecasted a -2.9% drop to 239; the actual move reached -3.04% 🎯.

• META: The bearish target of 569.8 (-3.9%) was exceeded moving -4.39% 🎯.

Securities Covered Every Week:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

The Weekly Support and Resistance levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk/reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning. Unlock this golden tool by subscribing to the paid plan.

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As for the S&P 500, today’s move was constructive. However, the key resistance zone mentioned last night to our premium community was not recovered, the updated levels to consider a validation to bullish momentum are below.

WEEKLY LEVELS

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Also as anticipated, the next resistance, the bullish target zone, was 7,353, and price reached it in a matter of two minutes. After about an hour of consolidation, the rally continued toward 7,440, and the day ended before that milestone was reached.

Daily levels become key when the weekly ones are too wide, a product of high volatility and large price moves. That was the case for QQQ, which was more bullish then SPX since the daily level of 699 was a solid support and the price visited 705.6 a couple of times during the morning. Here, the news that fueled the rally at 1:30 PM NY time sent QQQ to 717.6, a daily level also modeled yesterday for QQQ as for all of the Magnificent Seven and other American and international megacaps.

Having levels ahead of time also saves you an invaluable asset: Time, so you can plan ahead without rushing when the market opens.

For example, many stocks closed with bullish conviction, and they need to hold these daily levels tomorrow to keep momentum. For example, AMD +8.0% closed with bullish conviction, and 479.0 is the level that will define bullish or bearish daily momentum tomorrow. The same applies to 600.9 for SMH +6.8%, 962.7 for MU +11.7%, 543.4 for AMAT +11.2%, 565.9 for META -0.4%, and 352.7 for GOOG +0.9%. Subscribers have the full set of weekly and monthly levels to assess potential destinations in both directions.

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That said, the key daily levels for the SPX are below, along with the most important chart of the week at this point. Subscribe and get access to this data ahead of the biggest IPO in stock market history. Tomorrow SpaceX goes public, and retail traders will be able to buy the ticker SPCX. Do not miss the special study on IPOs we posted yesterday. Whether you are a trader or a long-term investor, make informed decisions with full awareness of the potential moves that follow an IPO. Access here:

The Most Important Chart of the Week

Last week this chart worked as an essential anticipation for the selloff, it was for tech sector, today it’s the SPX:

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The World Cup may kick off tomorrow, but the stock market has its own main annual event this Friday. On June 12, 2026, SpaceX goes public on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, and it is set to be the largest IPO in financial history.

The numbers are built for headlines: a valuation near $1.77 trillion, a share price of $135, and a rare 30% allocation reserved for retail investors. For once, Retail Traders get a seat at the table from day one.

In a typical IPO, almost all the shares at the offering price go to large institutions and favored clients of the underwriting banks. Regular investors usually cannot buy until the stock opens for public trading, which is often well above the IPO price. This lets ordinary investors buy in at the same $135 price the institutions pay, rather than chasing the open.

There is a lot of speculation about the company valuation. Today we study the last ten major IPOs, from META and BABA to TSLA and PLTR, and the pattern is hard to ignore: every buyer can expect one single element: Volatility, every one of them handed early buyers a steep drawdown before the real trend began (sometimes following a rally, sometimes immediately), the first 6 months are likely to be a roller coaster, the details with clear charts and technical indicators are below.

Every investor must be aware that stocks like TSLA and SNOW saw double digit moves in both directions during the very first week of the IPO (probably one reason to launch SPCX on Friday.

One particular aspect in IPOs is the lack of technical indicators, moving averages, oscillators, Bollinger bands, and many others are built on recent historical data, the good news for subscribers is that we will have Support and Resistance Levels since next week, with daily updates.

Upgrade before Friday and be technically informed ahead of SpaceX debut with a roadmap, not a guess. Levels will be able to paid subscribers as well.

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Let’s begin.

META, BABA, and TSLA: All Synchronized

These three are particularly relevant, the first two given their size, TSLA given the Elon Musk effect; notice the arrows in each chart and the zig-zags with double-digit moves over time. When technical indicators are applied, the navigation makes perfect sense. Same for UBER, SPOT, and the others below, PLTR, SPOT, and TWLO are the ones with differences in the initial weeks only:

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Regarding our high probability setups, AAPL cumulates a -5.4% decline this week, exceeding the bearish expectations and target anticipated 🎯. Similar case for MSFT that has declined -3.2% during the week, moving in the expected direction 🎯.

Let’s assess the market conditions with the biggest movers from our watchlist, the daily levels for the SPX tomorrow, and a key chart to consider after a volatile opening of the week. Unlock the update by subscribing to the paid plan.

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This is why choppy price action may continue

Rallies occur with more conviction, while declines trap bulls with spikes during extended hours that vanish in market hours, or with bounces from key levels as it happened today.

This chart suggests caution for both bulls and bears, and for that reason the SPX detailed here are essential to monitor momentum and planning ahead:

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Price action printed an inside candle for the NDX and key ETFs like IWM and SMH. Inside candles reflect market uncertainty with neither side establishing clear directional control. We will study below how to navigate them.

The market presented a mixed appetite across growth, energy, and cyclical sectors. Theoretically, it is bullish when the technology sector leads the day, with XLK gaining +2.2%, followed by energy (XLE) at +1.1% and discretionary (XLY) at +0.5%, however, clear indecision persisted when checking their respective charts. On the downside, sellers showed true conviction, printing long red candles in materials (XLB -1.3%), real estate (XLRE -1.5%), and utilities (XLU -1.9%). This highlights an ongoing internal debate between growth and defensive positioning, with no clear, unified direction yet.

On the crypto side, the bounce anticipated in the Weekly Compass is gaining validation, with IBIT bouncing +5.1% and ETHA gaining +7.2%. Finally, TSLA also printed an inside candle, forming an interesting technical structure.

Let’s dive into the key SPX levels for tomorrow’s session, alongside the setups for the top and bottom performers of the day across our watchlist.

SPX Daily Levels - How to Navigate Inside Candles?

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The futures session has opened and we are already seeing volatility. Prices opened in the red before staging a quick bounce. As mentioned on Saturday, a spike is possible, but the indices must recover their central weekly levels to provide stronger validation for a sustained bounce. I also outlined the less likely scenario of a gap down.

The key readings for this week include:

1. Support and Resistance Levels for the Week Ahead This report covers the SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, QQQ, SPY, the entire Magnificent 7, and major megacaps including key semiconductor companies like AVGO and AMD. The crucial Central Weekly Level (CWL) for each security serves as a vital reference point to validate any bounce. All the structural details can be found here:

The S/R publication is posted every Friday, detailing both the weekly levels for the coming week and the broader monthly levels. The Central Monthly Level (CML) holds major relevance for determining bullish or bearish momentum. At this point, both the SPX and NDX and six of the Magnificent Seven have lost it.

2. Weekly Compass This publication posted on Saturdays features deep technical setups and a thorough immersion into indicators for major indices, ETFs, equities, and Bitcoin, alongside a comprehensive analysis of current market conditions.

3. Customized S/R Levels Premium subscribers submitted over 70 individual securities this weekend for a customized analysis of their weekly support and resistance levels. These specific price levels have already been posted directly within the original submission chat.

4. Market Intelligence I highly suggest keeping these three recent studies in mind, as each assesses market pullbacks under similar conditions. While exact chart patterns do not repeat, underlying technical conditions absolutely do:

Since SpaceX is about to be a publica company, I will post a special about major IPOs this Wednesday.

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5. Founding Member Exchange Hub Founding members can now download the data sheets containing the monthly, weekly, and daily levels for our core watchlists and customized user requests.

For the next few days, I will be posting the daily SPX levels for all paid subscribers to welcome the new members of our community who may be interested in this data. Heading into tomorrow’s session, the SPX must recover 7,431.4 (CDL). Any intraday bounce below +0.6% remains questionable. If a bounce does materialize, the entire community has the clear CML and CWL metrics to monitor across the SPX and the rest of the watchlist.

Additionally, the SmartScreener results have been updated. Last week, AA, PANW, QCOM, DELL were flagged among the overextended stocks at risk of declining (all of them declined), while MCD and ABT were identified as overextended bears poised for a potential bounce (printed significant weekly bounces). All the results include the Weekly and Monthly levels to apply the same risk and targets criteria.

Let’s get ready for the week.

Have a good night everyone.

My only communication channels are email and the Substack chat. I do not use Telegram, WhatsApp, Discord, or any other private messaging platforms.

The content provided on SmartReveals.com is for educational and informational purposes only. All analyses, research, commentary, and other materials are intended to help users understand financial markets and are based on my own investment journal, investment concepts, and company fundamentals. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and past performance may not be indicative of future results. This content does not constitute investment or any type of advice. The support and resistance levels are modeled references to manage risk and anticipate potential reversals, each investor must assess their own risk tolerance to set stops.

U.S. equities closed the first week of June with steep losses as a stalled technology rally and rising interest rate expectations pressured the market. A much stronger than expected May labor report triggered the reversal from overbought levels called during the recent days (and reinforced on Thursday afternoon to paid subscribers). The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs last month, far above forecasts of 85,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, and upward revisions to March and April added another 93,000 jobs. The data erased expectations for near-term rate cuts. Investors sold government bonds aggressively, pushing Treasury yields higher and strengthening the dollar. Markets are now fully pricing a quarter-point rate increase by year-end under new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.

Higher energy costs and rising borrowing rates triggered a sharp rotation out of A.I. Sectors told a risk-off story during the week. Money leaned during the week toward energy (XLE +2.5%), healthcare (XLV +2.4%) and real estate (XLRE +1.6%), a defensive and value tilt rather than a chase for high-beta growth. Healthcare is testing monthly resistance near 153.0 with indecision, and real estate recovered both its weekly and monthly lines ($44). Meanwhile technology (XLK -5.6%) and discretionary (XLY -5.0% ) lost both their central weekly and central monthly levels, a major reversal sign triggered between January and February of this year ahead of March selloff. Communications followed in the ranking of weekly losers (XLC -3.5%).

This Reversal was Expected

The stock market has been in overheated conditions during the last two weeks, however, the market was fueled by geopolitical optimism and our key annual target had not been reached. On Wednesday, I wrote in the market update that my $7,638 target could be considered reached after the $7,620 weekly mark had been touched on Tuesday. $7,638 has been in my charts since the beginning of the year, and was updated as bullish target a month ago considering a specific weekly setup action studied for paid subscribers. The thesis is being validated 🎯.

When I establish a target for a weekly, monthly, or annual timeframe, I rely strictly on: 1) Technical indicators (and overbought conditions were flagged in the weekly chart, much more reliable than daily conditions), 2) price action patterns (Recent indecision at the highs), and 3) support and resistance levels modeled well ahead of price action.

The accuracy includes individual names, over a month ago I highlighted 317 as the bullish target for AAPL, the recent high before printing the current weekly shooting star pattern was 316.9.

My charts include annual levels that you see consistently week by week, paid subscribers saw the rejection that NVDA suffered at the 239 zone 🎯, not to mention the precision this week for SMH, reversing at 642, the same annual level 🎯.

Are annual levels hard resistance always? no, they aren’t, for that reason I highlight the relevance when it applies, and these cases involved overheated conditions considering my set of technical indicators that is transparently explained in every publication for each chart, making the content insightful and educational like no other.

🎯 The setups highlighted last weekend with high probability included bearish reversals for AAPL, SMH, IWM, and AMD, a bullish reversal for VXX, and bullish setups for MSFT and PLTR, which moved to their targets on Monday before sharp reversals (highlighting the importance of having S/R levels calculated in advance to set targets). That is a total of 7 setups with the correct direction 🎯 and 2 setups that did not deliver the bullish expectation: META and GLD. Their respective references to set stop losses and protect capital were 0.6% and 0.9% below the price.

In total, 7 of 9 or 77% of the setups highlighted were correct. The gain of the accurate setups averaged 4% including bullish and bearish targets. 🎯

Are you always following SPX, NDX, GLD, NVDA, TSLA or other securities? Good news for you, their setups are ALWAYS studied with targets and invalidation levels in every publication, I just highlight some setups for reasons described for each case.

Subscribe to get immediate access to our comprehensive analysis of the US indices, the Magnificent Seven, Bitcoin, core ETFs like SPY, QQQ, IWM, SMH, and GLD, and key mega-caps. All setups are summarized into a clear blueprint featuring structural bullish or bearish probabilities, precise price targets, and the exact levels needed to protect your capital. Charts included for further transparency of the considerations.

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Today’s Agenda:

• SPX and Market Context: Includes Volatility, Breadth, NDX, DJI, SMH, IWM, Crypto.

• Heat Rank (New Feature): All the securities in our watchlist ranked from overbought to oversold conditions.

• Deep Dive (charts) into Individual Names: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, TSLA, NVDA, META, AMZN, AMD, WMT, LLY, BRK.B, and GLD.

• Setups Blueprint: Bullish/bearish conditions for each name, price target, risk control price for the watchlist, included the ones listed above, and also NFLX, PLTR, V, AVGO, XOM, VXX, and more.

Let’s begin with our core index,

SPX - Wall Hit Printing Reliable Reversal Setup

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Over a month ago, I updated my SPX bullish target to 7,638, utilizing the annual line that has been included in my charts since the beginning of the year. On Wednesday, I highlighted that this target could be considered effectively reached when the market printed all-time highs at 7,620. Following today’s sharp sell-off, that analysis has proven remarkably accurate 🎯.

When I establish a target for a weekly, monthly, or annual timeframe, I rely strictly on technical indicators and support and resistance models mapped out well ahead of price action. As my paid subscribers know, this is not the first time an anticipated top has precisely triggered a major sell-off; the February 2025 top stands as another successful example.

Yesterday at 6:00 PM New York time, I sent a special alert to subscribers warning of a major reversal sign that was flashing in real time. It was not necessary to wait for today’s closing bell to recognize just how precarious and risky the conditions had become for technology.

In yesterday’s note, I identified the SPX Central Daily Level (CDL) at 7,566 as our key “bullish above / bearish below” zone. I also flagged the Central Weekly Level (CWL) at 7,559 as a critical threshold that, if breached, would trigger a significant decline. Overbought conditions in the SPX (and across the technology sector specifically) were extreme as highlighted in recent publications analyzing the weekly patterns. The velocity of today’s sell-off is consistent with the market losing that key confluence zone, not to mention the subsequent loss of the Central Monthly Level (CML).

Bears broke through three crucial structural levels today in the SPX. We saw the same breakdown occur in the NDX and QQQ, both of which closed the day with major bearish conviction.

In last Saturday’s Weekly Compass, I anticipated a bearish reversal for AAPL, SMH, IWM, and AMD; as a bullish reversal for VXX. When I forecast these structural turns, I do so using precise, actionable numbers: the Central Weekly Level. Those exact levels and their corresponding targets are updated here every Friday exclusively for paid subscribers.

Ahead of the upcoming Weekly Compass release, I have already modeled the preliminary downside destinations to consider for the SPX. Upgrade your subscription today to unlock the technical analysis and protect your capital for the week ahead.

These levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.

Our Core Watchlist: If you trade any of these securities, this publication is for you:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

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Today’s report also brings several red flags considering securities that lost their Central Monthly Level.

SPX - Levels to Watch:

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These key levels were highlighted in yesterday’s Market Update (access here), alongside the potential bounce for GOOG and AMZN. Both tech giants validated the bearish setups anticipated in the Weekly Compass, but became deeply oversold following steep declines from their respective peaks. In fact, both securities were oversold relative to their Bollinger Bands, as detailed in last night’s premium content.

Healthcare led the market with XLV gaining 3.1% on strong bullish conviction, followed by financials (XLF +2.6%) displaying structural strength, and real estate (XLRE +2.0%) adding further momentum. Capital clearly rotated into value and cyclical sectors to drive the tape. On the downside, technology (XLK -1.6%) managed to close with a green candle by recovering off its lows; it filled its daily gap but fell short of positive territory. Consumer staples (XLP -0.1%) reflected sector indecision, while materials (XLB) printed a neutral doji, which provides little encouragement for GLD and SLV.

Let’s dive deep into the most important chart to watch as we head into the end of the week.

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Tomorrow's daily SPX levels are included below, along with the major movers from our watchlist.

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The stock market has entered a highly choppy environment characterized by rapid, day-to-day reversals. For instance, NVDA rallied 6.2% on Monday only to reverse -3.2% today. Similarly, IWM posted a +0.93% bullish move yesterday but is down -1.3% today. These sudden, signal-free shifts illustrate just how volatile conditions can get. As we observed during the reversals of February 2025 and February 2026, this type of price action requires extreme caution.

Keep in mind that this choppy price action is triggering right after the S&P 500 neared $7638, the target I updated a couple of weeks ago. With this week’s recent high tagging $7,620 and then losing the weekly level, we can consider that target reached.

Today, we will focus on updating the setups anticipated for this week, AAPL reversed as anticipated last weekend breaching the already bearish target of $308 (-1.3%) 🎯, same IWM crossing below the bearish target of $287 (-0.9%) 🎯, and AMZN reversing as expected breaching the third bearish layer of 250.9 (-7.3%) 🎯. Meanwhile, MSFT and PLTR rapidly neared their bullish targets on Monday 🎯 before quickly reversing.

We will also analyze the anticipated bullish reversal volatility (VIX), up +4.4% this week already.

This edition is dedicated to managing high-probability setups and practicing strict risk management using our weekly support and resistance levels as reference points. We will also cover the daily SPX levels for tomorrow, alongside deep dives into IWM, the VIX, GLD, the Magnificent Seven (TSLA, NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, META), and observations for other setups like AVGO, PLTR, SMH and Bitcoin.

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Let’s stay cautious, navigate these setups carefully, and begin our analysis with the technical charts and price levels to watch.

SPX and Volatility

The S&P 500 experienced a breakdown in short-term market architecture as price action slipped beneath critical confluent zones as follows:

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U.S. equity markets closed the holiday-shortened week of May 25 with meaningful gains and new record highs across the major indices. The S&P 500 added 1.4% to settle at 7,580, completing

its 9th consecutive weekly advance. The Nasdaq 100 led the tape with a 2.9% gain to close at 30,333. The Dow added 0.9% to finish at 51,032, while the Russell 2000 gained 1.7% to close at 2,919. Investors rotated into growth through the week validating bullish setups anticipated in this publication last week for AAPL (+4.1%), MSFT (+7.5%), TSLA (+3.4%), and LLY (+6.1%). All of them reaching levels anticipated one week before 🎯🎯🎯🎯.

Technology drove the bulk of the advance, with artificial intelligence spending expectations continuing to set the tone. Micron crossed a historic threshold this week, surpassing $1 trillion in market capitalization. Computer hardware surged late in the week after DELL and NTAP both delivered earnings that exceeded expectations, lifting the infrastructure group broadly. On the software side, MSFT provided support after announcing an upcoming AI-native coding framework. ORCL and SNOW each posted double-digit percentage gains on the week.

Crude oil fell 9.5% to settle at $87.7 per barrel after reports emerged of a provisional 60-day ceasefire framework between the United States and Iran targeting the Strait of Hormuz. The energy drop pulled Treasury yields lower, with the 10-year settling at 4.45%. Core inflation came in at 3.3% year-over-year for April, keeping the Federal Reserve in a wait-and-see posture on rate cuts. Gold faced pressure and settled at $4,560 per ounce after bouncing from a key support line studied below in the paid content.

Key Economic Events Next Week:

Next week will be crucial for two reasons:

1. The SPX has to prove the latest weekly move holding this price zone, and specifically its central weekly level that differentiates between bullish momentum and consolidation or bearish reversal if it is breached. For the complete set of levels included NDX, QQQ, SPY, DIA, all the Magnificent Seven, Futures, and other megacaps make sure to read the updated levels posted yesterday after the close, they have audio content guiding about the benefits of using levels.

2. The Semiconductor Giants must hold the line and keep the current valuations, price action is overbought across the board: MU, AMD, INTC, TXN, AVGO, and others are overextended, and NVDA is already in pullback mode after being overbought. We will study today, as usual, SMH, NVDA, AMD and AVGO in the paid content below. Only one has a likely solid bullish setup, the others look toppy.

Sell in May and Goo Away?

There are widespread overextensions and open gaps to consider, not only in Semiconductors but across the SPX, NDX, and IWM. June is historically a strong month (finishing green in 9 out of the last 10 years with the sole exception of 2022, which was a midterm election year). We will soon see if June continues this dominant uptrend, or if it validates the alternative statistic marking it as the worst performing month of a midterm cycle.

The best game plan: Reading the technical indicators as we do permanently, stay prepared, use our levels for validation, and carefully consider the potential of individual names as we do every week with the individual setups mapped for our watchlist focused on high volume and market cap names. Subscribe and unlock all the content and publications posted every week.

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Today’s Agenda:

• SPX and Market Context: Includes Volatility, Participacion, NDX, DJI, ETFs, Crypto.

• Heat Rank (New Feature): All the securities in our watchlist ranked from overbought to oversold conditions.

• Deep Dive into Individual Names: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, TSLA, NVDA, META, AMZN, AMD, AVGO, V, LLY, GLD, and PLTR.

• Setups Blueprint: Bullish/bearish conditions for each name, price target, risk control price for the watchlist. I highlight some of them and you can choose the ones you prefer.

Let’s begin,

SPX: Another Early Warning or Finally a Consolidation Begins?

Indecision + High Volume + Overbought conditions are usually meaningful, these are the points to consider and indicators to track:

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Hello everyone,

Today’s introduction is available in audio format, where the core benefits of our Support and Resistance framework are described. The audio also dives into the high-probability trades anticipated last Saturday for TSLA, AAPL, and MSFT, using them as fresh, real-world examples of the model in action. Below, you will find your fully updated weekly and monthly levels to guide your trading strategy for the days ahead.

These levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to watch levels, decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.

Our Core Watchlist

This publication consistently analyzes the following securities to provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions. Maintaining a consistent watchlist is key to improving performance; it allows you to refine the timing of your entries and effectively rotate capital as new opportunities emerge.

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Subscribe to the paid plan and unlock all the levels and premium content:

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If you enjoyed this audio format, make sure to tap that like button so I know to keep producing more content just like this.

Let’s begin. We will review the weekly levels first, followed by the monthly ones, and conclude with a combined view so you can easily anticipate critical confluence areas.

WEEKLY LEVELS

Among the main highlights, see how NVDA and GOOG flipped conditions, same as PLTR in both the weekly and monthly levels:

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The traditional semiconductor cycle has changed. For four decades, chip stocks moved as one: demand rose, capacity followed, prices fell, and the group corrected together on a predictable rhythm. That playbook no longer describes the market. The AI infrastructure buildout has accelerated demand so violently, and concentrated it so unevenly, that the sector has split into two economies operating under entirely different physics. The Data Center now runs on multi-year contracted backlogs, sold-out supply, and pricing power that compounds rather than decays.

What broke the cycle was the scale and, more importantly, the visibility of AI infrastructure spending. Demand did not merely rise; it arrived with names, gigawatts, and delivery dates attached. Order backlogs now extend years rather than quarters, and entire categories of components are fully committed before they are even built. That produces anomalies the old model simply cannot explain: memory sold out more than a year forward, custom silicon designed against contracts that run to the end of the decade, and server processors where demand persistently outpaces supply. At the same time, the consumer edge (phones and PCs) remains stubbornly cyclical, and is currently absorbing the cost of that same boom as memory capacity is pulled toward AI and away from mainstream devices. With that context, one end (Semis) enjoys structural, near-monopoly economics with multi-year visibility. The other is fighting for position in a maturing market. Both sit inside the very same index, and increasingly inside the same passive fund flows.

Today, following a powerful rally in 2026 (year to date - YTD), we are analyzing the semiconductor leaders that have moved in a parabolic way to assess the distinct opportunities and risks embedded in their charts. This comprehensive teardown covers: MU (+214% YTD), INTC (+220%), AMD (+129%), QCOM (+34%, after retracing from +49%), and NVDA (+12%, not as parabolic this year but it’s the leader) using a structured, multi-dimensional framework:

• Financial Strengths

• Revenue Composition

• Key Risks to Monitor

• Technical Conditions

• Main Business Datapoints for the next 12 months that will influence price action

Whether you are a long-term investor or a trader, this publication is essential for navigating the semiconductor sector and the broader stock market. Subscribe to the paid plan here:

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Navigating at High Velocity

When technical conditions become severely overextended, investing mimics piloting a race car at maximum velocity. Speed alone does not win the race; the driver must hyper-focus on upcoming curves, the positioning of competitors, and shifting track conditions to avoid a catastrophic accident.

The exact same discipline applies to navigating this semiconductor cycle. This earnings season marked a profound paradigm shift, establishing the gap between contracted demand and speculative, hoped-for demand as the ultimate dividing line for the sector. For true industry leaders, revenue is no longer speculative. It is structurally locked in by unprecedented backlogs, sold-out supply chains, and multi-year design wins. As a result, these numbers are compounding with a level of visibility the sector has never experienced in its history.

This publication provides that vital operational context in a concise, executive format, equipping long term investors and traders with the essential fundamental and technical factors required to navigate these six giants over the next 12 months.

Let’s begin.

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The stock market has begun flashing consolidation signals over the last two weeks. The first warning arrived last week when the S&P 500 printed a shooting star on the weekly timeframe, while the NASDAQ posted indecisive candles just above essential resistance lines. This past Friday, the indices followed up by printing indecisive price action at overbought conditions in the case of the Dow Jones. This type of indecisive price action suggests that a consolidation phase lies ahead. Ultimately, this has been an exceptionally powerful rally, but now the market must digest its recent gains.

At the same time, we are seeing breaking positive news over the weekend regarding a potential peace deal between the United States and Iran. To navigate these developments, today’s analysis will focus heavily on technical conditions and our central weekly levels, which we always use as our primary structural tool to validate market direction: remaining above these levels confirms valid bullish momentum, while breaking below them shifts the bias to bearish momentum. While several structural charts are signaling near-term exhaustion and a healthy consolidation ahead, we will use the levels for the week ahead to objectively validate these technical signals. Our primary focus is to blend the potential geopolitical good news with strict price criteria, identifying the exact levels that must be maintained or recovered to ensure a sustainable bullish extension.

Different conditions and opportunities in our watchlist

The core question for this week centers on the flip of relative weakness: assets like NVDA, AVGO, MSFT, and GOOG are already showing vulnerability relative to their support and resistance levels, not to mention COST, and WMT. They serve as case studies for the upcoming sessions. If a peace-deal rally takes hold on Tuesday, will the upward momentum be powerful enough to help these specific names recover their lost structural levels? Will the potential deal fuel stocks like META, PLTR, NFLX, V or BRK.B that are showing constructive price action, forming a potential bullish reversal? And lastly, will the news keep XOM below its momentum line, or is it a potential long if the deal reverses?

Meanwhile, for the securities that are showing exhaustion signals yet to be confirmed and are likely to open above their central weekly levels (SPX, NDX, DIA, AAPL, AMZN, IWM, SMH), the specific lines they must defend are referenced in the charts below with their upside targets resting above the central weekly level. Those upside targets are watch out zones, since technical indicators provide advance warnings that, sooner or later, play out in the price action when a target rejects the price and central levels are lost.

TSLA, BTC, LLY, JPM are in a different cluster of securities that are worth studying for both traders and long term investors.

Today, we will break down the precise conditions for each security, highlighting the essential price levels that must hold to maintain a bullish posture, as well as the key levels that lagging assets need to reclaim. As an early indicator, Bitcoin is already reacting constructively to the headlines. Serving as a 24/7 thermometer for risk-on appetite.

Every asset features unique technical conditions and specific price levels that are analyzed individually using charts and key data points. This gives you a comprehensive view of both bullish and bearish opportunities, all consolidated into a single blueprint or dashboard to help you make informed decisions with clear targets and risk management levels.

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Let’s begin the analysis.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, SMH, Volatility, Breadth, and Bitcoin.

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Mega Caps including TSLA, NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, META, PLTR, AVGO, JPM, and more.

Market Context

During the week, several tech names posted bearish moves such as NVDA, AVGO, and GOOG to name the biggest ones, while stocks in defensive sectors showed green for the 5 day period as presented here:

Breadth has improved, and it’s worth noting that Utilities and Healthcare as defensive sectors outperformed tech. Let’s study the trend, being mindful of internals and individual names that are showing solid setups.

SPX - Will the Good News Invalidate Exhaustion Signals?

It is a well-known market adage that bottoms are events, while tops are processes. What we are currently observing is a localized increase in volatility and choppy price action, which is a standard characteristic of broader consolidation processes. These are the bullish and bearish facts, with the indicators to monitor next week:

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U.S. stocks advanced ahead of the long weekend, positioning the S&P 500 for an eight-week winning streak. This marks the longest weekly run for the benchmark index since December 2023. The S&P 500 rose 0.88% after approaching to our bearish target of 7,325 and bounced. The NDX gained +1.2% also after touching its bearish target of 28,609 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 2.2% during the week. This late-week strength emerged as investors absorbed falling government bond yields and a pullback in energy costs (Crude Oil fell -8.2% during these five days).

The positive finish capped a volatile five-day period defined by accelerating inflation and a global bond market selloff. April’s Consumer Price Index rose 3.8% year-over-year, surpassing market forecasts. This hotter-than-expected reading drove the 10-year Treasury yield toward 4.6%, its highest mark in over a year, while the 30-year yield climbed to levels unseen since 2007. Investors positioned for central bank rate hikes to combat inflationary pressure tied to Middle East geopolitical risk. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s April meeting backed this expectation, showing a majority of officials viewing rate increases as appropriate if energy-driven inflation continues. A 25 basis point hike is now fully priced in for this year.

Sectors and asset classes shifted materially under these macro conditions. Higher borrowing costs weighed on materials and utilities, both posting steep weekly declines. Corporate earnings drew sustained focus, particularly quarterly results from Nvidia (-4.4%) and major retailers like Walmart -8.5%). In digital assets, Bitcoin dipped below $80,000 early in the week and is closing Friday near $75K.

Support and Resistance Levels

Trading is entirely about probabilities and risk management, probabilities based on technical indicators that provide directional references for price action, and risk management using price targets and invalidation levels. Every Friday the support and resistance levels for the week ahead are modeled, these levels have proven to frame price action ad the Setups Blueprint posted in the Weekly Compass anticipated for this week:

Example of targets set for this week:

• LLY hit the bullish extended target of $1,069.9 (+6.5%) 🎯

• COST hit and crossed $1,075 (+2.6%) 🎯

• PLTR touched $138.0 (+3.0%) 🎯

• TSLA nailed its downside target, hitting our 394.2 modeled (-6.6%) 🎯

• IWM hit my bearish target of 270.8 (-2.4%) 🎯

Example of Risk Management:

• META was expected to print a bullish move targeting $627 (+2.2%), the primary move was bearish, so the invalidation level of $610.2 (only -0.7%) acted as a reference to manage risk, protecting capital from the selloff to $596.6 (-2.9%).

Every weekend I publish the setups for all the securities of our watchlist, I highlight the ones that I see with the highest probability given the market conditions, but you can choose your own, for example, the setup for V (Visa) anticipated 330 as target and 335 as extension target, with an invalidation level at 324. The high of the week was 335 🎯.

The levels covered every Friday for the week ahead include:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Subscribe to the paid plan, and unlock essential information for next week.

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SPX: The indecisive candle suggests caution and most likely a pullback next week. The Central Weekly Level that must be breached to validate that thesis and the potential targets are posted here.

Weekly levels for swings, monthly levels for longer term investments, they are here and the tables below show them combined.

WEEKLY LEVELS

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The stock market moves in distinct, repeating cycles. While some seasonal patterns are minor enough to cause “analysis paralysis” among market commentators, the U.S. presidential cycle is a statistically significant pattern. Historically, the midterm election year is a turbulent or outright bearish period for equities.

Today, we will analyze these historical midterm patterns using clean technical charts rather than relying on standard statistics tables without technical indicators that help to assess the current conditions with the ones that preceded corrections in midterm years. By looking directly at price action, we can objectively evaluate the probabilities for the current midterm year of 2026.

Following the special macro analysis, we’ll dive into the performance of the high-probability setups highlighted in this week’s Weekly Compass.

Momentum hit several major milestones, with LLY 🎯, COST 🎯, and MSFT 🎯 hitting their bullish targets, while JPM 🎯, IWM 🎯 and AVGO 🎯 completed their moves straight to their bearish objectives. META ⚠️ breached its defense floor for short term bullish considerations. 6 right setups, 1 touching the stop loss reference, always provided with the setups to protect capital.

Unlock today's Special Study for the S&P 500, the Stock Market Update, and the complete Market Intelligence Library. Every study posted in our hub is a must-read for serious long-term investors and tactical traders alike.

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Market Intelligence Library

Below, we analyze the stock market and the setups for DIA and SPY, both neared by less than a dollar 👍.

Let’s begin,

Trading the Midterm Year - What to Expect From the SPX:

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Back in November 2025, I published a special study outlining our primary bullish target for 2026: 7,470 on the SPX. Today, that exact mark has been reached, defying the widespread pessimism observed back in March. That analysis was rooted entirely in documented technical patterns, with zero gut feeling involved.

Last Wednesday, our Market Intelligence study provided a clear roadmap for what to expect over the next few months, and Friday’s reversal appears to strongly validate the thesis we laid out.

Furthermore, back on March 28, this publication highlighted the high probability of a bounce. By disciplined tracking of our weekly SPX levels and key technical indicators, we successfully navigated a 16%+ rally using one simple rule: remain bullish above the Central Weekly Level, while monitoring broader technical conditions.

Today, the price action has printed a significant structural signal, and we will navigate it with that same rigorous discipline. Unlike on March 28, when the market was severely oversold and technical indicators signaled a bottom, today the market is entering heavily overbought territory, and a critical level looks set to be breached heading into next week.

Alongside the broader indices, we continue to navigate individual equity setups. This past week, our price targets for JPM, TSLA, and AAPL were all hit with precision. Reversals for IBIT, V, and MSFT unfolded as anticipated, and capital protection protocols were triggered for LLY and XOM. That brings our weekly track record to six accurate moves versus two that went in the opposite direction but were protected by our risk parameters. Because every setup I present includes clear price targets and invalidation levels, subscribers can easily use them as a reference to set stop-losses tailored to their own risk tolerance.

In today’s edition, we will study a combination of long-term macro trends alongside high-probability, near-term tactical moves. Upgrade to the premium paid plan now to unlock all the exclusive content and over 20 charts with clear facts and price targets.

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This is about navigating the market with informed, data-driven decisions, not about simply being a bull or a bear.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts and price levels for SPX, U.S. Indices, Volatility, Breadth, and Crypto.

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of Indices, the Magnificent Seven, Crypto, and other megacaps in one easy-to-read chart.

• Setups Blueprint: All setups condensed with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing high probability setups.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps (20+ charts).

Let’s begin,

Market Context - SPX - Major Price Action Signal:

On Wednesday, we studied how consolidations and pullbacks are likely when the price reaches overbought conditions, the publication was named “Why Bears Should Stand Ready”, this is the likely move coming:

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