Back on March 28, I highlighted in this publication how likely was the market to bounce, the call was unpopular, but my role is to assess the price action with neutrality, when the market is exhausted I call it for both directions, and that was the case back then.

I highlight technical conditions, not news, not noise, price action generally precedes them, and this time was no different like in the tariff war in 2025, the further inflation fears in 2022. My statements included:

“Oversold conditions have been seriously reached”, “If the market does not set a relief bounce next week, it would be against the trend of the last 25 years including the dot com and the great financial crisis”

My analysis is clear and specific: I use indicators to identify potential reversals, and I use modeled price levels to validate the technical thesis. This validation occurs either by confirming a reversal (where a specific level must be reclaimed by bulls or lost by bears) or by monitoring a consolidation where a level flips from support to resistance or vice versa. For example, on that day I noted the weekly levels that must hold to consider a bounce a true recovery: SPX at 6,429.8, SPY at 640.1, and QQQ at 568.5, with similar requirements for the SMH, IWM, DIA, and the Magnificent Seven. The recovery of those levels occurred on Tuesday March 31st.

Since then, technical indicators have been analyzed week by week to highlight bullish conditions and specific price levels. These are updated every week, with the Central Weekly Level (CWL) serving as the validator of momentum. Alongside this, the Central Monthly Level (CML) remains essential for assessing the longer term structure for both investors and traders.

Today, following an +11% move in the SPX and a 16%+ surge in the NDX, we must assess price action through the lens of mixed signals: long term indicators remain bullish, while the very short term has become overheated.

This publication provides ongoing analysis of the SPX, NDX, DJI, SMH, IWM, and the VIX, alongside the Magnificent Seven and other mega-caps like AVGO, AMD, and PLTR. Last Saturday’s “Setups Blueprint” (a summarized report highlighting the technical bias for each security) maintained a bullish outlook for the SPX, projecting a weekly move between 7,206 and 7,248 (+0.6% to +1.2%); the final outcome was +0.91%. For the NDX, the blueprint anticipated a +1.2% move to 27,610, while the final weekly move reached +1.5% at 27,710.

In today’s edition, we will study a combination of long term trends and short term potential moves, utilizing weekly and monthly levels to establish targets and validate each technical thesis. Upgrade to the paid plan and unlock all the content.

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Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for SPX, U.S. Indices, Volatility, Breadth, and Crypto.

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps (20+ charts).

• Setups Blueprint: Summary with short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing higher probability setups.

Is the market getting ready for a consolidation? will bears have a chance? Toda’s publication brings 5 specific indicators to monitor and make informed decisions.

Let’s begin.

SPX: Combining Short Term Warnings and Long term Setups

We are approaching my bullish target for 2026. The velocity of this move is unprecedented, and seasonal factors, such as the midterm election cycle, must be considered. The chart highlights:

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The week ending April 24 delivered a technically rich but internally divided market. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 consolidated as anticipated in the previous Weekly Compass, with the SPX filling its gap at $7,051.2 as likely considered. Tech (NDX) surged +2.4% for the week, and the semiconductor sector printed a +9.1% breakout reaching unprecedented overbought conditions that we will study today. The Three Green Soldiers pattern on the SPX and NDX weekly chart mentioned last week is in bullish play, and Bitcoin continues moving north since it was anticipated three weeks ago. The cryptocurrency has gained +13.7% since, and Ethereum +9.9%.

But beneath the surface, a different story has been developing. The stock participation has decreased from 78% to 59% over four sessions while the SPX moved higher. Fewer than 53% of stocks are above their 50-day average. The rally that carried the index was not a broad market recovery. It was a semiconductor event, with INTC, TXN, MU, AMD, AVGO, and SMH doing the heavy lifting with weekly moves above 9% each, while software names (NOW, ADBE, ORCL, PLTR) collapsed or yielded gains respectively. The financial sector leadership (JPM, V, BRK.B) deteriorated. That divergence is the defining tension entering the most important earnings week of 2025: Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta all report.

Will semiconductors consolidate next week? Can the ‘Magnificent Five’ deliver the bullish results the market expects? Will non-tech sectors continue their decline, or can Software stage a recovery?

The indicators to navigate these questions are detailed in this publication. We analyze SMH, NVDA, AVGO, and AMD with specific levels that, if held, would validate a bullish continuation. Additionally, the charts for all the ‘Magnificent Seven’ are always here along with non-tech megacaps, identifying the critical support and resistance levels to watch. Regarding software, a special edition was posted last Wednesday following the sell-off; get access using the link:

Fundamental + technical Special: PLTR, ORCL, NOW, PANW, ADBE, CRM, SAP, CRWD

Another key read for the Magnificent Seven in the A.I. era was posted this month, this is key for the week ahead:

Investing in the AI Era: MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, META, AMZN, TSLA, AVGO, NVDA

Upgrade to the paid plan and unlock all the content with the charts and analysis for the week ahead.

Today’s Agenda

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for U.S. Indices, Volatility, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Magnificent Seven and other Megacaps.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Let’s begin,

Momentum Map: A New and Disparate Order

As anticipated few weeks ago, the red quadrant offered good opportunities for longs, and that was correct, after three weeks a new leadership emerged, but keep an eye on this hidden points to consider:

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Last week we studied the relevance of $6,816, with historical charts that presented how important is the recovery of the 20 weekly average, now that it happened it can be mentioned here for everyone, with the SPX +4.5% above that line.

Receding conflict in the Middle East provided the primary lift for sentiment. Equities rallied after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz completely open following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon. The reopening of this trade route triggered a sharp decline in energy markets. Brent crude futures dropped 8.7% to $90.71 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures slid 10.6% to $84.69. Despite the broad shift into riskier assets, gold remained elevated at approximately $4,823, reflecting sustained interest in traditional safe havens. In crypto, Bitcoin and Ethereum have rallied above 6% this week so far.

Technically speaking, the selloff in oil has reached oversold conditions, and yesterday I posted in the S/R levels edition the chart for XOM, that is currently suggesting a potential spike (spike does not mean all time highs).

Corporate earnings and technology developments also drove significant price action. Oracle gained nearly 30% for the week, boosted by new artificial intelligence agreements, while Goldman Sachs rose 3.13% on Friday following solid first-quarter results. On the negative side, Netflix dropped between 9.7% after issuing a disappointing revenue forecast for the second quarter. The quantum computing sector saw massive volatility, with stocks like D-Wave Quantum and IonQ soaring over 50% after Nvidia launched a new open-source quantum AI model.

Despite of the rally, NFLX proves that every company must prove their ratios otherwise Wall Street will punish a disappointing earnings result. From our Blueprint of trades posted last Saturday, we saw good performance this week, with NVDA, AAPL, QQQ, JPM, IBIT, ETHA, META, and even NFLX surpassing their bullish targets. PLTR, TSLA, and V reversed as expected also printing rallies, while LLY was the only security that went in the unexpected direction but our Central Weekly Level (CWL) used as a reference for stop losses protects capital.

Every setup posted in this weekend’s publication includes price targets, invalidation levels, and a risk-reward ratio. This allows you to make informed decisions based on technical indicators and modeled levels where algorithms typically react, as paid subscribers have experienced for over two years. Unlock the analysis for this week by upgrading your subscription.

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The week’s price action underscores a market recalibrating around two powerful forces: geopolitical relief and AI-driven momentum. With the S&P 500 now at record highs and the Nasdaq on a historic run, the burden of proof shifts to earnings season to validate these elevated levels. Investors should watch whether the energy pullback translates into improved consumer sentiment and whether tech leadership can broaden beyond the usual names. For now, the bulls are firmly in control, but complacency at all-time highs rarely pays.

Securities Analyzed Every Week:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Having a constant set of securities allows you to anticipate rotations and to time better individual names. If you trade some of the securities listed, this publication is for you.

Today’s Agenda

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for the SPX, U.S. Indices, Volatility, Breadth, and Bitcoin.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps (20+ charts).

Let’s begin.

Momentum Map

To our new subscribers: welcome. It is always helpful to recall the cyclical nature of the market. Stocks bounce from oversold conditions (improving), rally into strength (leading), hit overbought extremes, and eventually pullback (weakening) to become laggards. I integrated this rotation feature into the Weekly Compass a year ago, and it has been remarkably consistent.

We saw this cycle play out with the euphoria in NFLX after the 2025 crash, followed by PLTR, MSFT, and Bitcoin, all of which declined sharply in Q4 2025. Meanwhile, names like GOOG, LLY, SLV, and GLD looked unstoppable in rally mode until they fell sharply. As we stand today, the cycle will inevitably continue its course.

All the securities mentioned are analyzed in our Momentum Map, allowing you to identify opportunities and threats in a single glance. Combined with the individual charts included here, you can easily assess whether a reversal is imminent or if the current momentum still has room to run.

Using this tool the bullish reversal thesis for stocks like META, COST, BITCOIN, and even NFLX were anticipated recently. Just last weekend this approach was key to consider the bounces for PLTR, V, and TSLA.

The updated momentum map, followed by the SPX analysis, the setups blueprint for next week, and the individual charts continue here:

Read more

U.S. equities experienced another weekly rally. Major indices surged on Wednesday following news of a tentative two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, which also facilitated a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite climbed 3.5% and 4.4% respectively during the week. Last week I highlighted the major relevance of $6,503 for the SPX, and despite intra-day volatility, the index managed to close abobe that level on Monday and Tuesday, and considering the weekly setup preceding price action, the bullish resolution was just consistent with the technical conditions.

With that level conquered, the high probability setups performed very well. Premium subscribers received last week the bullish targets and invalidation levels for: SPY, QQQ, AMD, NFLX, NVDA, AAPL, COST, META, AGVO, and MSFT; also with the bearish setup for XOM. All of them reached their targets, even Microsoft that reversed its move during the week. The success rate was 100%. Unlock the setups for next week, including the technical charts and the market overview, with the SPX as the core of this publication.

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Premium subscribers have access to special analyses where I noted that a correction at this stage of the market was normal. I also highlighted why a transition into a bear market at this juncture would be highly unusual. However, considering many questions I received during the end of march, I outlined the worst case scenario for a decline. I always listen to your questions, and when I notice a recurring pattern, I address it through dedicated reports. Those special publications are a must-read for both traders and long-term investors:

Access » Bear Market Bottoms in One Predictable Pattern

When you subscribe to the paid plan, you get special analysis that give north to our trading setups, the complete Market Intelligence Library is here, including educational content:

Access » Market Intelligence Library and eBooks

In the crypto space, Bitcoin surged past our the key $69,7K level early in the week as risk appetite recovered, if you’re a Crypto enthusiast, today’s publication presents an essential setup.

Macro News to Consider

Economic indicators painted a mixed picture. The March Consumer Price Index met expectations, rising 0.9% for the month and 3.3% year over year. This headline figure was heavily influenced by a 10.9% monthly jump in energy prices, the sharpest increase since September 2005. Gasoline prices soared 21.2% for the month, pushing the national average above $4 a gallon. On a more constructive note, core CPI (which excludes volatile food and energy costs) came in slightly cooler than anticipated, rising 0.2% for the month and 2.6% annually. The labor market remained surprisingly firm, with March non-farm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, far exceeding the forecast of 65,000. Last but not least, the University of Michigan’s sentiment index dropped 11% in April to 47.6. One-year inflation expectations also jumped to 4.8% from 3.8% in March.

Today’s Agenda

• Technical Signals Vs Sentiment: Key level to watch next week for the SPX, completing the 28 years study posted last night with the levels.

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the opportunities in a single chart.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for the SPX, U.S. Indices, Key ETFs, Magnificent 7, Crypto, and Megacaps.

• Market Context: Analyses for SPX, VIX, NDX, DJI, Bitcoin, and Breadth

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps (20+ charts).

Let’s continue, upgrade your subscription to the paid plan and unlock the content.

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Technical Signals vs. Sentiment

Considering the questions I received at the end of March, I’m keeping several bullish signals on the SPX, NDX, IWM, DJI, and Bitcoin charts that I posted when anticipating the bounce. It is essential to analyze technical events objectively, removing emotion from the equation, when you’re a real experienced trader you don’t panic, you manage risk and trust the process. My goal is to help you become a better investor and trader, markets will always face corrections, and you must remember which signals preceded the bounce in previous occurrences.

SPX: The Key Level to Watch Next Week

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Despite the extreme bearish sentiment last weekend, I anticipated that a bounce was coming, citing a high likelihood of a relief rally, “as the SPY, QQQ, IWM, and DIA were showing potential for a trend reversal.” Pessimism was as high as it was in April 2025, but staying focused on technical indicators is essential, regardless of the noise.

Markets closed the first week of April with their first weekly gain since the Iran conflict began. The S&P 500 rose 3.4%, the Dow added nearly 3%, IWM rallied 3.4%, and the Nasdaq 100 surged 4%. In addition, other bullish setups were anticipated by this publication last Saturday: AMZN (bouncing 5.2% during the week) and NFLX (5.6%). A consolidation for XOM was expected, and on Monday, I highlighted the bearish reversal setup that initiated the -6% selloff seen this week.

For a forecast built on prudence in the current market conditions, this represents a 100% win rate. I am posting daily levels to help paid subscribers navigate this volatile market. Subscribe now and unlock the analysis for next week.

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The Week Ahead: The question for the week ahead is not whether volatility will continue, it likely will. The real question is how oil prices, the Dollar Index, and the VIX will behave. The geopolitical escalations we saw late this week carry enough weight to significantly dampen sentiment, and every rally must recover the Central Weekly and Monthly Levels posted here to prove its sustainability.

Bearish Sentiment is High: Over the last 30 years, we have seen this level of bearish sentiment only a few times, as highlighted in the chart below using the current 55% bearish sentiment leve as a reference. Given this week’s bounce from those extreme conditions, we must now monitor if this move will last two or three weeks (as typically seen even during bear market rallies) or if it will be short-lived, similar to 2025 when the market saw only a one-week relief before resuming the Tariff Crash. The full analysis is below.

Essential Tools to Navigate this Market: During this period, while many celebrated Holy Week and Easter, I released two essential publications. The first presents the single metric that has timed bear market bottoms for decades. The charts speak for themselves; there is no gut feeling involved. This is data every investor and trader must be aware of.

• Bear Market Bottoms in One Predictable Pattern

The second publication provides the Support and Resistance Levels for next week and the month of April. These levels have proven to be an accurate “bullish above / bearish below” threshold. The indices must consolidate above them next week before we can consider any further bullish continuation.

• Gap Filled - Assessing Resistance or Upside

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Today’s Agenda

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for U.S. Indices, Volatility, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analyses for Metals and Mega Caps.

Upgrade your subscription to the paid plan; unlock the full content with charts, price levels and most probable setups for next week.

Momentum Map

Few times the momentum map anticipates this many opportunities in the market:

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History shows that even during the most iconic collapses, such as the Dot-com bubble, the Great Financial Crisis, or the bear markets of 2018 and 2022, the decline was a process. These periods lasted for weeks or months and were characterized by sharp, intermediate relief rallies that occurred before the selling resumed. Even the 2025 Tariff Crash followed this pattern, with historic single-day surges providing temporary breathing room amidst the volatility.

In recent history, only the COVID-19 crash of 2020 moved with such velocity that it bottomed in roughly four weeks before a V-shaped recovery began. Aside from that unique event (which was more severe than the current energy-driven shock) major selloffs typically involve a cycle of reaching deep oversold conditions, followed by significant relief bounces as the stock market breathes.

As posted yesterday, the support and resistance levels frame a -1.6% to +3% move for next week in the SPX, considering the first layers around the central weekly price level.

The VIX has closed above 25 during four consecutive weeks in a row, that condition favors bears, but as we have seen during the same weeks, volatility also brings quick rallies that may squeeze short positions if risk is not managed well. For that reason I’m posting in the paid subscribers chat daily price levels for the SPX, the main ETFs like SPY, QQQ, SMH, VXX, and DIA, along with all the magnificent seven, metals, and other major stocks. If you trade using levels, those daily insights are for you.

High Probability Trades

Last week, the setups blueprint anticipated with prudence bullish reversals for PLTR, JPM, NFLX, AAPL, SMH, and AMD. All of them happened reaching and exceeding their bullish targets; and as the VIX above 25 suggests, volatility followed with a selloff. The bearish setups highlighted last week for META and AMZN also exceeded their targets. The only security that didn’t move as expected was XOM, which despite of overbought conditions, it continued in rally mode. 8 out of 9 setups reached their targets.

Having specific support and resistances for the week help anticipating potential reversal areas. Upgrade your subscription to paid and get the tools for next week.

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My last two publications have real life examples of managing stop losses, which is essential for survival in this market.

• Trailing stops for longs - Educational Content

• Trailing stops for shorts - S/R Levels for Next Week

Today’s analysis brings a zoom in to previous bottoms for the S&P 500 / SPX.

This publication constantly studies the following securities in order to monitor rotations with the momentum map and individual analyses. If you trade some of them, this publication is for you:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Megacaps: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Subscribe and unlock their setups for next week in a single dashboard that highlights the most probable moves for next week.

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Today’s Agenda:

• Special Study of Bottoms for the SPX: Major bottom? or just relief rally?

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for U.S. Indices, Volatility, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

• Deep Dive: Visual individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps.

Let’s begin,

SPX: What the Last Four Bear Markets Suggest is Coming Next

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The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75%. Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged inflation progress but cited Middle East developments as a source of deep economic uncertainty. Rate cut expectations for 2026 have been largely priced out. The higher for longer environment weighed on utilities and technology. Micron Technology fell nearly 4% after third-quarter guidance missed expectations. In crypto, Bitcoin briefly decoupled from equities to reclaim $74,000 on Monday before institutional selling renewed pressure through the week.

If you missed the latest special about oil and stagflation, including a long term study of major tops in the stock market, make sure to read it, this is essential for long term investors and traders.

• FED Trapped: Oil, Inflation, and Jobs

This week saw yet another faded rally. We are hitting oversold levels that look promising on Friday and Monday, yet every attempt to bounce is sold off. Unlike previous weeks, this time the bears showed real conviction. The defensive sectors continue reversing.

You may recall my special reports on sector rotation (Wednesday is the day for Market Intelligence), where I highlighted that defensives were overbought while growth was oversold. By the time the “Great Rotation” became a popular media topic, the move was already largely complete. Over the last several weeks, Industrials, Staples, Materials, and Healthcare have fallen sharply, with Utilities joining the defensive sell-off this past week. While the week was undoubtedly bearish, Technology and Financials showed relative strength, following only Energy in performance.

It is worth noting that the QQQ has reached extreme oversold levels. Based on Money Flow, the index is currently below its 2025 bottom, the 2023 correction, and even the lows of the 2022 bear market. The current reading coincides with the rallies that began in March and June of 2022. While that was a bear market year, we must navigate the immediate price action, and the current scenario suggests a bottom is near.

Today we will focus the analysis on the technical indicators that are flagging oversold conditions, the levels that have been breached recently, like the 200 daily moving average in the case of the S&P500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100. weekly timeframes that removes the noise of the daily volatility, and essential support and resistance levels to watch, including the central weekly level for all the securities studied. Any spike must recover that level, that lately has essentially acted as a resistance during the last weeks.

The Geopolitical “Time vs. Price” Factor: The reason I emphasize that the bottom is near in terms of Time rather than Price is the unpredictability of war. Unlike economic data or earnings reports, geopolitical events do not follow a schedule.

Since 1939, the S&P 500 has bottomed approximately 15 trading days after a major geopolitical event. That statistic, combined with current extreme oversold conditions, is the focus of today’s study, including the key price levels each security must recover to validate a sustainable bounce if it happens, so you don’t jump in buying a falling knife. Our Central Weekly Level (CWL) remains the definitive momentum validator; for over two years, it has proven to our subscribers that price action is bullish above and bearish below.

The distance to this central weekly level, or the “spike” required next week, varies by security. For instance, META must jump 2% to validate any recovery; otherwise, we likely face another “vanishing” move. SLV has crashed and now needs a bounce of more than 6.4% to prevent the sell-off from resuming. Conversely, AAPL is just 0.7% away from flipping its key level to support, which would complete a 2.2% move, while JPM is only $1 away from the level needed to spark a bullish reversal.

The combination of technical indicators and modeled support and resistance levels helps us navigate this market. By staying aware of volatility, index momentum, and sector variables, we provide the roadmap necessary for the week ahead. Unlock the full analysis below.

The securities constantly analyzed by this publication are the following ones:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Megacaps: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

If you invest or trade one or more of these securities, this publication is for you.

Today’s Agenda

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart, identifying momentum and potential bullish or bearish reversals.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for U.S. Indices, Volatility, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps (20+ charts).

Let’s begin.

Momentum Map: Technicals Always Pass their Bill

Over the past months, we have observed a consistent rotation across securities, regardless of the prevailing bullish or bearish momentum. This was clearly evidenced when AAPL and TSLA transitioned through the map, moving from Laggard to Improving, and finally to Leading, yielding double-digit rallies consistent with our technical readings. We saw the same cycle play out with LLY, GOOG, and much earlier with PLTR, NVDA, and NFLX, as they followed the circular “clock” rotation before eventually falling into Weakening and Laggard status.

Currently, we are seeing this shift in SLV. This silver-tracking ETF has finally exited the Leading quadrant. This observation is primarily educational, highlighting the critical importance of following technical signals and the Central Levels (Weekly or Monthly depending on your profile) to stay ahead of the map’s rotational shifts.

Let’s talk about the current opportunities in the map:

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It’s been exactly two years since the launch of SmartReversals. On this very day back in 2024, I posted the first-ever Weekly Compass. I want to say a massive thank you to all of you for your support, I truly appreciate every one of you. My commitment remains the same: to deliver honest, neutral analysis focused strictly on facts and technical indicators.

When SmartReversals.com first launched, it started with two weekly publications: the Weekly Compass and our Wednesday educational content. Shortly after, I began posting the Support and Resistance Levels on Fridays, the same framework I model to measure potential upcoming moves and validate momentum when the Central Weekly Level is either breached or consolidated.

In 2025, the customized Support and Resistance levels where paid subscribers could suggest their own securities for modeling were introduced. It was so well-received that it became a permanent weekly deliverable, allowing our members to see the model applied to their specific interests.

The Weekly Compass has also evolved. Since 2025, we’ve added the Momentum Map, and more recently, our High-Probability Setups, a solid approach where all our tools converge into actionable ideas.

Everything I develop and share here is a result of what I find useful for my own trading performance. Your appreciation has been essential behind this evolution. With the service growing, I felt it was the right time to share a comprehensive User Guide video, so everyone knows exactly how to get the most out of the information on SmartReversals.com.

Now that you’ve seen how the Compass works, you’re ready to dive into the latest analyses. Pay close attention to the recent Market Intelligence post on Oil and the Weekly Compass from this past Saturday, which correctly anticipated the price spike alongside a potential lack of conviction.

Be sure to identify the key price levels that must hold as support tomorrow to remain in “bounce mode.” As shown in the video, a setup is truly validated only once a specific level is reached.

• Latest Special Study: Oil - History’s Blueprint for Extreme Moves

• Latest Weekly Compass: Bulls and Bears Exhausted

Upgrade your subscription here to the paid plan and unlock all the premium content:

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Thank you very much.

God bless.

If you are a new trader feeling frustrated by the inability to find a clear trend as a bull or a bear, do not worry. This environment is uncommon. Usually, pullbacks are marked by solid bearish conviction candles that facilitate shorting, or bullish momentum markets that provide clear long entries. For several months, we managed to navigate this by focusing on individual names, but with the VIX around 30, the entire market is now presenting the same fragmented situation.

The Bearish Move has Lacked Conviction

See the last part of the 2022 bear market, the -10% correction in 2023, and the healthy pullback in 2024, the candles have a solid red body that show a clear move after the opening.

When analyzing the S&P 500 since the start of the year 2026, you will notice candles with long upper and lower wicks, reflecting massive intra-week volatility. Price action frequently reaches bullish targets, breaches essential validation levels, and touches bearish targets all within a single week. Recently, we are seeing “inverse U-turns” rallies at the start of the week that inevitably fade. While the resolution was neutral a few weeks ago, it has recently shifted toward a bearish outcome, with the index now declining 5% from its all-time highs.

In the NASDAQ 100, the choppiness is even more pronounced. Instead of solid red or green candles, we see tiny “bodies” with long wicks to both sides. This convictionless price action exhausts both bulls and bears.

My publication from Wednesday, which I highly recommend reading, sets a clear macro and technical context regarding the geopolitical conflict with Iran and offers the references needed to navigate this environment. Starting today, I am adding a new combination of indicators to the Weekly Compass specifically designed to gauge the likelihood of 'choppy' regimes. These metrics will serve as a filter to determine whether to remain sidelined or adjust position sizing to navigate both bullish and bearish setups effectively. Access here:

• Oil as the New VIX: History’s Blueprint for Extreme Moves

This publication consistently analyzes the following securities to provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions. Maintaining a consistent watchlist is key to improving performance; it allows you to refine the timing of your entries and effectively rotate capital as new opportunities emerge.

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

There are securities forming promising setups, unlock the complete analysis including technical charts, price levels to assess the strength of any potential spike in price next week, the potential levels where it can resume the selloff if the pattern continues, and how the price structure has been affected for the SPX and NDX.

Subscribe now to the paid plan, and unlock all the premium content.

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Today’s Agenda

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart, Strategy for the week ahead.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for U.S. Indices, Volatility, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Mega Caps and Metals (20+ charts).

Momentum Map - Opportunities Arising

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Geopolitical events present a unique pricing challenge for financial markets. Unlike earnings reports or Federal Reserve decisions that arrive on a known schedule, geopolitical shocks are by nature unpredictable, rare, and of uncertain duration. This combination of characteristics creates a specific market dynamic: sharp initial reaction driven by uncertainty, followed by rapid reassessment as facts emerge.

There are three primary channels through which geopolitical shocks affect asset prices: 1) disruption to cross-border trade and investment, 2) contagion through financial linkages, and 3) elevated macroeconomic uncertainty. Of these three, uncertainty has the longest-lasting effect because it cannot be resolved until the event either escalates or de-escalates.

Markets do not price the event itself. They price the probability that the event will permanently alter real economic conditions. Most geopolitical events do not meet that threshold, which is why the recovery pattern is consistent.

The 1973 Yom Kippur War and the Oil Embargo that followed represent the most instructive case for worst case scenarios. The two events together, which occurred within 10 days of each other, produced a 43.2% S&P 500 decline over the following 12 months. This was not simply a geopolitical shock but a structural economic event: oil prices quadrupled, the U.S. entered a deep recession, and the inflation that followed shaped Federal Reserve policy for an entire decade.

On the other side, the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack is the most recently completed data point and one of the most instructive. Despite extreme initial uncertainty, the S&P 500 returned 33.5% over the following 12 months. The event did not disrupt global oil supply, did not spread to major economies in a way that affected trade, and did not alter the Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory. All three variables came up negative. The market followed the historical pattern.

The Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 is the most striking example of this dynamic. The world came as close to nuclear war as it has in the modern era, yet the S&P 500 gained 5.1% in the following month and 27.6% over 12 months.

Markets priced the resolution, not the peak fear.

That said, oil is a key element to watch today, oil price shocks lasting fewer than 90 days tend to produce recoverable market impacts. Shocks persisting beyond one quarter begin altering corporate earnings forecasts, inflation expectations, and monetary policy, which is when short-term dips become multi-year bear markets.

Technicals apply to all asset classes, and Oil is currently overbought. In comparison to 2022, which also followed a major geopolitical event, those overbought conditions dissipated after two months. Today, Oil is more overbought than it was in 2022; consequently, a consolidation is likely, accompanied by extreme volatility that could also shake the stock market.

Volatility and High Probability Setups

From the setups posted last Saturday in this publication, the following happened:

• 🎯AAPL reached its extended bearish target of 254 for a -3.7% move

• 🎯SMH reached its extended bearish target of $386 for a -5% move

• 🎯GLD reached its bullish target of $497.8 for a +2.9% move.

• 🎯IWM reached its bearish target of $253.8 for a -3% move

• 🎯V reached its bullish target of $326.1 for a +1.9% move

• 🎯PLTR exceeded its extended target of $145 for more than a +6.1% move

• ✅QQQ reached its bearish target of $598.7 for a -1.4% move with choppy action

• ✅NFLX was bullish, and as anticipated last Saturday, its target is multi-week

• ❌LLY was the only setup invalidated that moved in the opposite direction.

🏅🏅🏅PLTR, SMH, and IWM actually extended the moves to the third bearish level, so the gains were even bigger.

That’s a 8/9 accuracy rate for a very volatile week. This is achievable using disciplined technical analysis and modeled support and resistance levels.

Subscribe and unlock this institutional grade approach every week. Our core watchlist includes megacaps and securities with high daily volume:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

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Today’s Agenda

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for U.S. Indices, Volatility, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps (20+ charts).

Let’s continue, upgrade your subscription to the paid plan, and unlock the Take advantage of the market turmoil

Momentum Map - Great Rotation Vanishing as Expected

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The market has validated this move this week: Staples are down -3.2%, Materials -2.8%, and Healthcare -2.0%. Meanwhile, Technology is in the green +0.8%, with Discretionary and Financials flattening out despite of the recent selloff. These conditions confirm the “stretched rotation” thesis based on technicals presented last week, and today we will use specific technical levels to determine if this trend has further room to run.

Precision Under High Volatility

I mentioned on Saturday: , and we did see that type of price action,

Volatility is a key theme today. We will analyze the likelihood of a sustained bullish continuation versus a relief rally that may quickly vanish. Recent moves demonstrate why price action is primary: the high volatility I highlighted last week, specifically the likelihood of rapid moves, played out across the high-probability setups.

I mentioned on Saturday: “Be mindful of potential reversals if initial or extended targets are reached rapidly”.

• QQQ: Opened at $598.7, bounced, and printed indecision at the CWL on Monday before reversing to our bearish extended target of $590.0.

• SMH & IWM: Both high-probability bearish setups reached their targets with precision. SMH hit $386.0 for a -5% move, also the extended target of $253.8 for IWM was hit for a -2.9% move.

• AAPL: Reached $259.3, finishing just one dollar shy but moving -1.8% as expected.

Perhaps most impressive was PLTR. Despite my personal doubts about reaching the +6.1% extended target of $145.6 I marked in the setups blueprint since the model suggested it, and the model proved that markets don’t have emotions when the setup is strong; PLTR is currently trading at $153.0. Similarly, Visa (V) hit its bullish target of $326.1 before reversing today.

With the VIX remaining above 20 and the SPX still below its Central Monthly Level, discipline is mandatory. Despite the volatility, six of our high-probability setups reached their targets and the week has not ended. Only LLY and GLD were invalidated, with GLD moving north as expected on Monday but peaked at $492.0 before retracing, just short of our $497.8 goal.

Since the price was overextended on Tuesday, and dip buyers jumped in in the morning, yesterday afternoon, I sent an exclusive alert to paid subscribers noting that risk-reward had shifted in favor of the bulls and added specific price levels. This follows a similar catch last week when we identified bearish exhaustion on Monday. It was posted in the paid subscribers’ chat.

The critical questions for today: What is the current setup signaling? Is this rally sustainable, or is the rotation set to continue reversing back toward Growth?

In today’s publication, we cover:

• Rotation Status: Tracking the shift from Defensives to Growth.

• Technical Deep Dive: A close-up on SPX, QQQ, and SMH.

• Volatility & Bitcoin: Assessing risk and ‘risk-on’ sentiment.

• High-Probability Setups: An audit of our current targets.

Access today’s institutional-grade analysis below to stay ahead of this volatile market.

Let’s begin.

Rotation Status:

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Today, we are witnessing a distinct asymmetric condition in the market. Sectors outside of Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials are rallying, while Tech, Megacaps, and Bitcoin (BTC used as a “risk-on” thermometer), have already reached oversold conditions. This is atypical, as major market tops are usually characterized by synchronized overbought conditions across all sectors.

In today’s publication you will read the different signals to watch ahead of a week with renewed reasons to be volatile, this time related to geopolitical situations with Iran.

Since November, then the SPX has gone nowhere, I have highlighted the power of individual names, also enriching the variety of our watchlist including names like LLY, XOM, JPM, WMT to our weekly analysis. Today V as another megacap is added to balance the view and opportunities.

High Probability Setups

Last week, our setups hit their weekly targets, including:

• SMH: $429.2 (+3.3%)

• GLD: $484.0 (+3.3%)

• QQQ: $615.0 (+1.0%)

• SPX: $694.4 (+0.7%) — I mentioned on Wednesday afternoon that closing the position was valid in case of a bull trap following NVDA earnings.

When trading high-probability setups with specific targets and invalidation levels, performance in a choppy market significantly improves.

Why use invalidation levels? The first rule of trading is capital preservation. Last week, I filtered 30 setups down to the few with the most technical merit and tightest stops as mentioned last Saturday. Even with a correct directional bias in IWM, the target wasn’t reached before the stop-loss level was triggered. The same occurred for XOM and PLTR.

That puts us at 4 out of 7 successful setups in a difficult environment. After four months of weekly posting, our cumulative success rate remains at a robust 75%.

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My two latest deep dives on the "Great Rotation" are essential reading for a comprehensive view of the current landscape:

Today’s Agenda

• Geopolitics: Usual Implications for the market

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Setups Blueprint: High-probability trades and full universe analysis (track your favorites or use the ones I highlight).

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for U.S. Indices, Volatility, and Bitcoin.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps.

→ Today’s edition is special considering the special chapter about Geopolitics before the high probability setups for next week.

Let’s begin.

Geopolitics: The Catalyst for the S&P 493 to Decline Alongside Tech?

The current setup is best illustrated by the contrast between the “Generals” and the rest of the market:

• The MAGS ETF (Magnificent Seven) recently bounced fromits 200-day and 40-week moving averages.

• The XMAG ETF (S&P 493) continues to display bullish daily and weekly structures, highlighting the ongoing “Great Rotation”.

The current technical setup suggests a market that is already “on edge,” with SPX and NDX trading below their Central Monthly Levels and the VIX hovering around 20. Geopolitical escalation involving Iran would likely act as the catalyst that transitions this “choppy” consolidation into a more synchronized structural decline.

Historical Implications: Iran and Oil Conflicts

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We also held a bearish outlook for Apple (AAPL), which serves as an important case study analyzed in the charts below. While Apple moved lower in Tuesday’s pre-market, reaching our -3.3% target proved difficult in the overextended bearish environment. Similarly, while we expected a bullish move in Costco COST at the start of the week, it partially materialized. The target was $1,038, but the price topped at $1,028 on Tuesday. While the direction was accurate for the early week, it fell short of our ultimate target; therefore, I am classifying that setup as “vanished” in our track record.

As mentioned last Saturday in this publication:

While Friday showed indecisive price action that could hint at a potential bottom, the price is far from oversold enough to match previous patterns that triggered bounces. A rapid flush on Tuesday could provide stronger bottoming signals

The bounce was likely and we will study the same chart from last weekend keeping the highlighted candles that in the past were followed by a flush the first day of the week, just to bounce and closing in the green.

As I highlighted to premium subscribers, holidays often result in blurry visibility, where setups may fail to complete or reverse entirely during Sunday and Monday futures sessions.

Crypto Continues Weak

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) suggested a bullish reversal on Saturday, those setups were ultimately invalidated. In trading, discipline is key: the trigger for Bitcoin was never activated because the $70,8K level was not breached. Since the price was rejected once again, there was no material damage to our setups in IBIT and even ETHA.

Opportunities Brewing

Looking ahead, the same overextension that prevented some bearish targets from being reached is now creating potential reversal opportunities. Using our indicators and modeled Central Weekly Level (CWL), several securities now show a bullish bias for the coming week. We will study the specific CWLs and targets for names attempting to reverse, including Palantir (PLTR), Broadcom (AVGO), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Nvida (NVDA) and even Crypto, though the two latter requires extreme caution given the earnings report and the weakness in Price action respectively.

From these securities and others within our fixed universe of megacaps and high-volume names, we have identified the highest probability setups for the week ahead. Each includes a specific risk-management level. Let’s dive into the game plan and the key indicators to watch.

Our Core Watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX, XOM

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Setting the price targets and invalidation levels are based on technical indicators and modeled Support and Resistance levels for each week and month.

These educational publications present how to manage the high probability setups, upgrade your subscription and unlock this valuable guides:

• Maximizing Returns with High-Probability Setups

• Anatomy of a Winning Trade

• Turning Technical Tools into Results (Using SmartReversals Publications)

Join the paid plan today to trade with institutional-grade precision.

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Before the Weekly Plan: Sectors and Rotation

The market is currently undergoing a "Great Rotation," a structural shift where capital is exiting former high-flying technology and software sectors to seek refuge in defensive and "old economy" areas like Energy, Utilities, and Consumer Staples. This bifurcation has created a split market where the S&P 500 remains near all-time highs only because rallying defensive sectors are offsetting sharp declines in tech heavyweights, which now act as an anchor on the index. This rare divergence, where Consumer Staples hit new highs while Technology hits new lows, has only been observed once before, in late 2000, signaling a potential shift in long-term market leadership.

Be careful chasing, week by week the rotation headline has become more popular, and if you have been in the investment arena for a couple of years you know what happens when an asset becomes more popular (in this case Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Utilities, and other defensive sectors).

We have nailed bullish moves with LLY, WMT, BRK.B, and JPM, but that happened several weeks ago when their setups were brewing a bounce, and the use of specific targets was helpful to lock gains ahead of choppy price action.

That said, last week I anticipated a bearish reversal for XOM, LLY is looking weak, and this Wednesday I will post a second edition about sectors, because many of the defensive ones are overbought. Be careful chasing the herd, anticipate the moves here.

On the other side, Software is extremely oversold, and some giants are suggesting some bearish exhaustion, let’s study the individual setups so you are equipped with indicators and levels to set targets or managing risk.

Potential Bounce in the Market?

Probably, oversold sectors are bouncing (XLK and XLY), while others continue in the green (not Staples) but are overbought.

By mastering a constant universe of ‘Megacaps’ and Indices, you can identify capital rotation and time your entries with precision, rather than chasing random tickers.

Today’s Agenda

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Setups Blueprint: High-probability trades and full universe analysis (track your favorites or use the ones I highlight).

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for U.S. Indices, Volatility, and Bitcoin.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps.

Let’s continue, my two eBooks on Essential, and Advanced Technical Indicators are below to download.

Momentum Map - Some Tech Names are Showing Signs of a Bounce - Weekly Plan

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Simultaneously, the much-anticipated rotation into the “real economy” has pushed defensive sectors like Utilities, Energy, and Staples into overbought territory. While capital fled the volatility of Silicon Valley, it crowded into these value-oriented sectors, driving technical indicators to extremes and stretching valuations beyond historical norms. This week’s price action suggests that the “safety trade” is becoming increasingly expensive, leaving investors with few places to hide. With Bitcoin trying to consolidate after the recent selloff and the VIX reclaiming 20, the market is currently caught between a tech sector that is losing its lead and a real economy that is struggling to justify its recent premium.

Navigating Volatility Finding Winners

Our High-Probability Setups outperformed again in a very volatile week, maintaining a cumulative accuracy record. The setups were posted with specific targets:

🎯 MSFT reached its target of 423.8 for a +5.7% from our trigger or entry point.

🎯 AVGO reached its target of 349.4 for a +5% move.

🎯 GOOG was bearish as anticipated reaching 303.9 for a -6.1% move

🎯 IWM reached its target of 268.8 for a +1.4% move.

✅ PLTR bearish as anticipated for a -3.3% weekly move. Target in progress.

🎯 COST Choppy price action triggering $978 on Wednesday. $1,024 for a +2.3% move reached.

❌ BRK.B Stopped, breached its Central Weekly Level -1.7% and did not recovered it.

❌ META Invalidated, the week opened below the trigger, any attempt on Monday when it was slightly recovered, the price vanished afterwards.

Six out of eight setups were successful for a 75% success rate, and the cumulative since November sits at 79%. Setting the price targets and invalidation levels are based on technical indicators and modeled Support and Resistance levels for each week and month.

These educational publications present how to manage the high probability setups, upgrade your subscription and unlock this valuable guides:

• Maximizing Returns with High-Probability Setups

• Anatomy of a Winning Trade

• Turning Technical Tools into Results (Using SmartReversals Publications)

Join the paid plan today to trade with institutional-grade precision.

Subscribe now

My focus on megacaps is rooted in deep fundamental analysis, allowing us to understand the business context driving every oversold or overbought chart. You can access our latest fundamental updates for eight of the companies we watch here:

• TSLA, META, MSFT, AAPL

• AMZN, GOOG, PLTR, LLY

By mastering a constant universe of ‘Megacaps’ and Indices, you can identify capital rotation and time your entries with precision, rather than chasing random tickers.

Our Core Watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX, XOM

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Subscribe now

Today’s Agenda

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Setups Blueprint: High-probability trades and full universe analysis (track your favorites).

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for U.S. Indices, Volatility, and Bitcoin.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps.

Let’s continue, my two eBooks on Essential, and Advanced Technical Indicators are below to download.

Momentum Map - Tech Didn’t Make It and Real Economy is Overbought

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While Nvidia led a single-session surge of 8%, the Nasdaq’s struggle to reclaim its 20-day moving average suggests that Tech still has considerable work to do to shift its technical structure. With labor market data cooling and industrial giants like Stellantis scaling back EV initiatives at a massive cost, the market is signaling that capital discipline is now as vital as growth. Until these tech leaders can prove that their record-breaking Capex cycles will translate into bottom-line results, the persistent drag on the NDX remains a critical risk that the high-flying Dow and S&P 500 cannot ignore forever.

Alpha Over Beta: Finding Winners While the Indices Chop

Last week, our High-Probability Setups outperformed in a very volatile week, maintaining a cumulative accuracy record of 79%. The moves in BTC, BRK.B, SMH, WMT, AAPL, QQQ, SPY, and JPM, were anticipated correctly, even for IWM in a very choppy week, securing an average gain of 5% across bullish and bearish setups. Even our only invalidation, META were cut short with a minimal -1.2% loss. This edge comes from trading a constant universe of high-volume, blue-chip securities. My focus on liquid giants ensures our orders get filled and our technical analysis remains reliable. Join the paid plan today to trade with institutional-grade precision.

Another strength of monitoring blue chip companies is to know what is behind the charts, and during this earnings season I update the fundamental library with deep research and specific financial figures for our universe. Get access to the fundamental analysis for AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, and META here in case you missed it on Wednesday:

Next Wednesday, the same deep dive will be posted for GOOG, PLTR, LLY, and AMZN.

And today, the high probability setups are below for the week ahead.

Unlock Setups for Next Week

Sector Rotation: Why All-Time Highs Are Decoupling from Reality

Through the first six weeks of 2026, a stark divergence has emerged in market leadership. While the S&P 500 (SPX) remains near elevated levels, traditional growth engines like Technology and Consumer Discretionary have significantly lagged the broader index. Instead, the heavy lifting is being done by defensive and cyclical sectors, with Consumer Staples, Energy, Industrials, and Materials all outperforming.

This rotation suggests a defensive posture among institutional participants and warrants extreme caution. Historically, when the “Real Economy” sectors lead while Tech falters, it signals a lack of risk appetite for the high-beta names that typically sustain a healthy bull market.

Despite the relief rally on Friday, the underlying technical structure for Technology remains fragile. The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) failed to reclaim its 20-day moving average, a key short-term trend indicator. More importantly, the Central Monthly Level currently sits above the price, acting as a formidable ceiling of resistance. Until the NDX can reclaim these overhead levels and demonstrate renewed relative strength, the broader market remains vulnerable to a deeper correction should the defensive sectors lose their momentum.

By mastering this constant universe of ‘Megacaps’ and Indices, you can identify capital rotation and time your entries with precision, rather than chasing random tickers.

Our Core Watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Price action is not out of the woods, volatility is likely to resume, make sure to have the best tools to navigate it. Subscribe now to unlock the momentum map, high probability setups, critical price levels, my two eBooks, and technical indicators you need to navigate next week’s volatility.

Subscribe now

Today’s Agenda

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Setups Blueprint: High-probability trades and full universe analysis (track your favorites).

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for U.S. Indices, Volatility, and Bitcoin.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps.

Let’s continue, my two eBooks on Essential, and Advanced Technical Indicators are below to download.

Momentum Map - Tech Continues Weak

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Last week, our High-Probability Setups continued to outperform, maintaining a cumulative accuracy record of 77%. We correctly identified moves in META, MSFT, AMZN, LLY, and IWM, securing an average gain of 4.1% across bullish and bearish setups. Even our invalidations (NFLX, PLTR, JPM) were cut short with a minimal -1% average loss. This edge comes from a deliberate choice: we trade a constant universe of high-volume, blue-chip securities. My focus on liquid giants ensures our orders get filled and our technical analysis remains reliable. Join the paid plan today to trade with institutional-grade precision.

Subscribe now

Earnings season accelerates next week with PLTR (Mon), AMD (Tue), LLY/GOOG (Wed), and AMZN (Thu). We nailed the targets and risk assessments for previous reports; apply that same discipline this week by focusing on the technicals.

Unlock Setups and Targets for Next Week

Sector Rotation Analysis: Flight to Safety and the Real Economy

The heatmap provides visual confirmation of the defensive rotation we have analyzed. The “Growth Engines” of the market are cooling, with Technology (XLK, -0.83%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY, -1.59%) acting as the primary sources of funds.

Capital is not leaving the market entirely; it is reallocating into the “Real Economy” and defensive havens. The outperformance of Utilities (XLU, +1.62%), Industrials (XLI, +0.74%), and Consumer Staples (XLP, +0.72%) signals that investors are prioritizing stability, dividends, and tangible assets over speculative growth. This is a classic “risk-off” configuration, where market participants seek shelter in sectors that can weather volatility. The drop in Materials (XLB, -1.40%) aligns with the sharp sell-off we observed in precious metals, confirming that the appetite for commodities and raw materials is contracting alongside the broader risk sentiment.

We track the drivers, not the noise. By mastering this constant universe of ‘Megacaps’ and Indices, you can identify capital rotation and time your entries with precision, rather than chasing random tickers.

Our Core Watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Price action is showing signs of exhaustion, make sure to have the best tools to navigate it. Subscribe now to unlock the momentum map, high probability setups, critical price levels, and technical indicators you need to navigate next week’s volatility.

Subscribe now

Today’s Agenda

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Setups Blueprint: High-probability trades and full universe analysis (track your favorites).

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for U.S. Indices, Volatility, and Bitcoin.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps.

Let’s continue, my eBook on Advanced Technical Indicators is also here.

Momentum Map - Rotation in Play

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The bearish move anticipated last week played out exactly as expected. The NDX hit its 20-week moving average with a -2.3% move, the VIX spiked as forecasted, and our thesis of an overcrowded trade with excessive participation was confirmed.

While the technical conditions already favored a pullback, the weekend’s news acted as a catalyst, accelerating the selloff with unexpected velocity. I typically post targets and extended targets meant for multi-day or multi-week moves; however, by Tuesday, those extended targets had already been met. The SPX even hit our “worst-case” weekly target of $6,787. (You can find all these layers in the S/R Levels edition published on Fridays, and in the charts of this Weekly Compass).

This overextended move triggered reversal alarms, by Tuesday afternoon when the market closed I sent a note to all subscribers highlighting the overextended move in the VIX and providing two numbers for Wednesday: $6,819 for SPX, and $610.1 for QQQ; if those two were recovered by Wednesday we would start seeing valid signs of a bullish reversal, and after them, $6,836.8 and $613 respectively. What happened next was a multi-day bounce that recovered the losses of Tuesday.

This is why it’s vital to have a professional perspective on technical indicators, it allows us to anticipate price direction and use well-modeled support and resistance levels to anticipate reversal zones and targets.

Unlike traditional analysis, my levels aren’t just based on historical lines; they are modeled for the period ahead (both weekly and monthly). Since this Substack launched in 2024, premium subscribers have witnessed the consistent accuracy of these levels firsthand. The ones for next week are out, click here.

Gains in technology and consumer discretionary shares provided essential support on Friday. Microsoft surged over 3% and Nvidia climbed 1.5%, offsetting persistent semiconductor weakness; Intel plunged roughly 17% on disappointing guidance. Financials proved the session’s biggest drag, falling 1.4% after Capital One slumped nearly 8% on an earnings miss.

Small and mid-cap stocks faced significant selling pressure. The Russell 2000 dropped 1.8% on Friday diverging from the S&P500 and the Nasdaq100, we will study the IWM as usual below in the premium section.

Investors are now turning their attention to a high-stakes earnings slate next week featuring reports from four “Magnificent Seven” giants: Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Apple (AAPL), and Tesla (TSLA). These results will likely determine market direction as major indices hover near record highs. As I have mentioned weeks ago “it will be interesting if megacaps are oversold by earnings reports”, which is the case for all the four mentioned. The analysis for all of them is below, with their respective targets. They are a must read for the week ahead, find them in the paid section below.

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This publication permanently track the market’s Megacaps and leaders to give you a broad market perspective. This constant focus allows you to time reversals for individual names and to anticipate capital rotation before the crowd does. Our watchlist includes:

• Indices: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• Majors: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX

• ETFs & Commodities: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Crypto: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR

• Leveraged: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Our analysis consistently captures major swings. Examples include bullish calls for TSLA and AAPL in July 2025 while they were still laggards, followed by timely bearish reversal calls in December based on specific technical signals. For Bitcoin, we have been bullish since April 2025 and turned bearish in October. Additionally, our Momentum Map successfully anticipated the LLY breakout in November and COST three weeks ago. All of them posted double-digit percentage gains; you don’t have to hunt for unknown companies; you can, but the risk is much higher.

We have been bearish on AAPL and TSLA since December based on specific price signals highlighted to paid subscribers. These are the types of swing moves that help you time the market effectively. Each week, this publication highlights high-probability setups, allowing you to monitor your preferred stocks for potential breakouts or selloffs, much like the notable JPM and PLTR moves mapped two weeks ago.

Since November, 76 high-probability setups have been posted, 57 of which were successful, maintaining a 75% success rate.

Every setup is provided with a primary price target, an extended target for high-momentum moves, a clear invalidation level to define your stop loss. There is no 'gut feeling' here, every move is backed by a technical thesis and modeled prices.

Even in highly volatile weeks like the one just ended, our high probability setups delivered an average gain of +3.2% across both long and short positions, with an average loss of only -0.7% for the setups that were affected by the rapid selloff. The week that just ended was brutal, and despite of that, this professional approach over-performed. Note that the full setups menu is much broader than what is presented in this preview, the bearish targets for TSLA, BRK.B, AMZN, PLTR, MSFT, META, and NFLX were reached. Ensure you have the right tools to navigate the current market. Subscribe now, this market neutrality and setups pay the subscription.

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Will the stocks mentioned continue in bearish mode? Not necessarily, there are opportunities out there, subscribe now to unlock all the setups for the week ahead.

Today’s Agenda:

• The Momentum Map

• Setups for 30 Tracked Securities: Highlighting High-Probability Moves

• Technical Analysis for Each Major Index, Volatility, Breadth, and Bitcoin

• Individual Technical Analysis for Metals and Stocks

Momentum Map

Today’s map presents shifts in many quadrants, we have new participants gaining momentum as LLY and WMT did in previous weeks, we have stocks finally entering in official weakening mode, and we also have new laggards, there are opportunities for bulls and bears ahead as follows:

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Discipline, Precision, and Market Neutrality

Success in the markets is built on disciplined technical analysis and the precise execution of price targets. This week, 7 of our 9 high-probability setups were successful, providing our subscribers with clear, actionable insights.

A core tenet of our strategy is market neutrality. Upside momentum can be monetized through longs or call options, as well as downward moves via shorts and puts. Leveraged ETFs are also part of the equation for broader indices and specific mega-cap. Being truly neutral also considers rotation, finding opportunity wherever it emerges, whether in Tech, Retail, Finance, Pharma, Metals, Crypto, or Bonds. My only strict requirement is that every asset must maintain high market capitalization to ensure liquidity and reliability.

The Three Pillars of Our Approach

1. Momentum Analysis: Six months ago, I introduced the Momentum Map to this publication. It has since become a crucial tool, helping subscribers visualize exactly where each security sits within its respective market cycle.

2. Individual Setups: We perform deep technical analysis on every security for a specific reason: Relative Strength in a map does not rule out overbought conditions. I recently anticipated this for AAPL, TSLA, LLY, and JPM, forecasting pullbacks despite their strength. Conversely, lagging securities extremely oversold can be primed for a bounce, as seen in my recent successful calls for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and COST. The technical chart with the right indicators is essential.

3. Execution & Risk Management: This week, we perfectly nailed the rallies in Ethereum and COST, alongside the anticipated sell-off in LLY. Other securities moved in the right direction reaching their targets. Every setup, not only for the most probable ones but for all the securities tracked has an invalidation level to be used as a reference to protect capital.

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Turning Analysis into Action

Our high-probability setups provide specific price targets. Once a target is hit, it can be transitioned into a new stop-loss reference to protect capital, or the gains can be locked in.

This methodology allowed AVGO, NDX, and TLT to reach their targets with precision this week. We maintain full transparency regarding our performance: our track record over the last several months currently holds a 77% success rate. My focus remains on price-action-based actionable for investors who demand clear, straight-to-the-point insights. This publication works for full time traders, and for people who work in their 9-5 and want to set their trades with clear parameters.

Last Wednesday, I released a guide outlining the essential components of a successful trade with real-world examples of critical decision-making for various scenarios: when a target is reached and immediately reverses, when momentum carries price beyond the target, or when a setup lacks the ‘fuel’ to reach its destination. I also cover risk management for those instances where price action moves against the setup. Get access here:

• Anatomy of a Winning Trade

Upgrade to a paid subscription today and they access to all the content at smartreversals.com The setups for next week are studied right in this publication, one single setup can pay for the whole monthly or annual subscription.

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Today’s Agenda

• Market Overview

• Momentum Map

• High Probability Setups

• SPX and Major Indices, Volatility Breadth, Bitcoin

• Individual Stocks, Metals, ETFs.

Market Overview

Geopolitical and monetary headwinds tempered risk appetite throughout the week. President Trump introduced fresh volatility by threatening tariffs on nations opposing U.S. interests in Greenland, raising concerns about trade stability. Simultaneously, uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve leadership intensified. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett may remain in his current role rather than receiving the nomination for Fed Chair, positioning Kevin Warsh as the leading contender. On the economic front, industrial production rose 0.4% in December and initial jobless claims fell to 198,000. This strength pushed Treasury yields higher, with the 10-year note settling at 4.23% as traders dialed back expectations for near-term rate cuts.

Fourth-quarter earnings season commenced in earnest with mixed results from the banking sector. PNC Financial Services advanced nearly 4% after posting a 25% profit increase, whereas Regions Financial fell short of expectations despite solid revenue growth. Technology shares displayed a sharp divergence. Semiconductor stocks rallied led by a nearly 8% surge in Micron Technology following a massive $7.8 billion insider stock purchase and a new facility announcement. Conversely, software stocks came under pressure, driving the iShares Software ETF IGV to its lowest level since May. In the industrial space, GE Vernova surged over 6% after the administration called for expanded power plant development.

We are seeing significant variations week per week in sector performance, this week the main laggards were financials and communications, which is not surprising from the technical stand point, JPM was not the only financial stock brewing a pullback based on their overheated conditions, on the communications side we will study below the setup for GOOG, which is printing a pullback setup, and for META we will study the loss of a significant annual level.

In technical analysis, seeing defensive sectors like Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples (XLP) rally while the SPX and NDX are stagnant or declining is often interpreted as a bearish warning sign, signaling a "Risk-Off" rotation. When investors lose confidence in high-growth areas like Tech (NDX) or consumer discretionary (XLY, where TSLA and AMZN are key players), they rotate capital into sectors with stable earnings and high dividends. These companies provide electricity, water, and household goods implying inelastic demand, meaning people buy their products regardless of the economy.

Yesterday I mentioned in the chat (you received the notification by email anyway), that breadth has reached the 70% milestone (stocks above 200DMA). That condition along with the "defensives" moving higher adds references to consider market cracks with tech exhausted.

Momentum Map

Let’s discuss again the mechanics of stock rotation. Regardless of the specific security, price action inevitably fluctuates between overbought extremes that trigger pullbacks and oversold conditions that ignite bounces.

Our core universe consists of high-market-cap, high-liquidity securities with strong fundamentals. This fundamental filter is vital; without it, a stock might stay trapped in the lagging quadrant indefinitely. This is why the individual technical analysis provided in our setups is the essential “key” to timing these rotations.

Several months ago, I highlighted that AAPL and TSLA were due for a recovery. Their charts eventually flashed the precise triggers confirming that a bounce was underway. We saw a similar pattern play out with LLY, and we are witnessing that same validation now with COST.

However, the “Risk-On” phase for some has shifted. We recently observed vanishing rallies, and bearish crossovers that have validated the recent corrective moves in AAPL and TSLA. While LLY is expected to catch up to this corrective phase soon, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently brewing a move that COST has already validated.

NVDA has rotated into the lagging quadrant, a shift that suggests buying opportunities on the horizon as it nears an oversold extreme; we will study that today.

We permanently track the market’s Megacaps and leaders to give you a broad market perspective. This constant focus allows you to catch the capital rotation before the crowd does and pinpoint the perfect time to enter. We Cover:

• Indices: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• Majors: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX

• ETFs & Commodities: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Crypto: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR

• Leveraged: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Ensure you have the right tools to navigate the current market. Subscribe now to unlock the Weekly Compass, including 20+ charts and next week’s price targets.

Unlock Analyses and Setups for Next Week

The map below illustrates our complete universe of securities. This provides the necessary context before we dive into today's high-probability setups, which have been enhanced with target extensions and a new key performance metric:

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The U.S. stock market wrapped up the first full trading week of 2026 on a high note, with the S&P 500 clinching a fresh record close and solidifying a winning week. All major indices advanced, led by the Dow Jones (+2.32%) and the Nasdaq 100 (+2.22%), which outperformed the S&P 500 (+1.57%). This strong performance, particularly the Dow’s leadership, was consistent with the price action and technical analysis highlighted in this publication last week.

Friday’s session was primarily driven by a mixed December employment report that investors ultimately interpreted as a signal of underlying economic resilience. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 50,000 for the month, falling short of the 66,000 forecast, while downward revisions to prior months removed 76,000 jobs from previous estimates. Despite the headline miss on job creation, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.4%, defying expectations for it to hold steady at 4.5%. This data portrays a labor market that is cooling rather than collapsing. It preserves the narrative that the Federal Reserve has room to continue its rate-cutting cycle to support growth in the first quarter.

Corporate and policy headlines fueled significant divergence in specific sectors, particularly technology and housing. Intel shares surged 10% after President Trump touted the government’s profitable equity stake in the company, a move that sparked a broader rebound across chip stocks. Simultaneously, homebuilders such as D.R. Horton and KB Home rallied on prospects of lower borrowing costs. These gains followed reports that the administration is considering a $200 billion purchase of mortgage-backed securities, a proposal that pushed mortgage rates to three-year lows and reignited interest in the housing sector.

5 Day Gains per Sector:

Last week, we observed strength in the Energy, Materials, and Utilities sectors, accompanied by significant declines in Technology, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary. This week, however, the movement in the stock market has been broad, with most sectors participating in the rally.

There are some notes about the main drivers that are worth studying:

1. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +5.12%) : Pure “Risk-On” sentiment. Being the clear leader indicates investors are betting on a resilient US consumer and economic growth rather than a recession. This sector is heavily weighted by Tesla and Amazon, so a rebound in those mega-caps typically forces this sector to outperform (AMZN rallied and TSLA is bouncing after reaching our bearish target).

2. Materials (XLB +4.64%): The “Reflation” Trade. A surge in materials often signals that the market expects global industrial demand to pick up.

3. Industrials (XLI +2.50%): Economic Confidence. Money flowing into Industrials suggests institutional rotation out of pure speculation and into “real economy” stocks (transportation, defense, manufacturing). It validates the rally we saw broadening beyond just Tech.

4. Energy (XLE +2.23%): Value Rotation & Geopolitics. Energy acted as a stabilizer. With oil prices holding firm, this sector attracted capital looking for undervalued cash flows and a hedge against potential geopolitical flare-ups.

5. Utilities (XLU -1.55%): This was the only sector in the red. Utilities are considered “bond proxies” (defensive dividend payers). When investors are confident (buying XLY) or when bond yields rise, they rotate out of safe havens like Utilities and vice-versa.

Looking ahead, the market faces a busy calendar with high-stakes policy and economic updates on the horizon. The Supreme Court did not issue a ruling on the legality of emergency tariffs this week, shifting investor focus to a potential decision next Wednesday. Market participants are also preparing for critical inflation data, with the December Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index scheduled for release next week. These reports will provide essential clarity on the Federal Reserve’s policy path as Wall Street navigates the early weeks of the new trading year.

High Probability Setups

As we discussed on Wednesday, news events are often just catalysts for technical setups. For this reason, while we monitor the macro environment, my primary focus remains on Price Action. We track over 30 securities, including indices, ETFs, Megacaps, Metals, and Crypto, to anticipate market moves.

Most importantly, we curate the best opportunities into a High Probability Setups list for the week ahead. Each setup includes specific price targets (which are often exceeded) and invalidation levels, giving subscribers an objective reference to avoid bad trades and protect capital.

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The SmartReversals Edge:

• Precision: Every setup comes with exact Target Prices and Invalidation Levels.

• Performance: A cumulated 78% win rate.

• Rotation: Deep analysis of major assets like SPX, NDX, NVDA, TSLA, and many others listed below 3X a week. Beyond the majors, we actively highlight when other securities offer superior Risk/Reward ratios, empowering you to rotate capital efficiently.

These actionable insights provide the coordinates you need to make decisions, protect capital, and stay on the right side of the trend. Here is the outcome of our recent setups:

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When you upgrade your subscription, you also unlock my eBook on advanced technical indicators, which includes comprehensive sections on:

• Volume Profile

• Support/Resistance (S/R) Levels

• Advanced Oscillators

• Valuation Ratios

• Confluence Analysis

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The eBook is right here in this publication! 👇👇👇 below the High Probability Setups for next week.

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Today’s Agenda

• Momentum Map and SPX

• High Probability Setups for Next Week

• Major Indices, Volatility, Stock Participation, Bitcoin

• Individual Stocks, Metals, and ETFs

Momentum Map and SPX

Crypto-related securities reached their bullish targets and reversed quickly, showing the extended choppiness of the multi-week consolidation we have been studying. All semiconductor securities have confirmed their weakening context, while stocks like COST and AMZN, which we had in our sights last week, finally broke out.

Remember that the quadrant must be assessed alongside individual technical analysis, and then that analysis must be sealed with specific price levels for confirmation. This structured sequence is the same one we saw months ago with AAPL and TSLA before rallying, and later with LLY and WMT, which are now in the Leading quadrant.

NVDA has fallen into Lagging; recall my note from last weekend anticipating a decline based on the shooting star candle. From a long-term view, it is interesting to see NVDA back in Lagging. Let’s see how to navigate the current momentum now that semiconductor securities are weakening, GOOG is the only ‘Magnificent 7’ stock in Leading, and non-tech sectors are improving:

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The indecisive price action observed at the close of last week anticipated the recent decline in the major U.S. indices. However, as mentioned in my previous publications, the gap fill for the SPX and NDX is the best outcome that could happen for bullish continuation.

The first trading week of 2026 presented a significant rotation, since investors reduced exposure to 2025’s growth darlings; specifically Technology and Consumer Discretionary, and reallocated capital into defensive, physical assets like Energy and Utilities.

In recent weeks, I highlighted the bearish setups for both TSLA and AAPL. The former proved to be the major loser among the Magnificent Seven. The individual analysis for each of these securities (and other major ones) including technical charts and price levels is presented every weekend in this publication as detailed below, for now let’s assess sectors and the high probability setups posted last weekend:

The Winners of the Week: Physical Economy & Defense

Energy (XLE) | +2.88% The energy sector emerged as the week’s standout performer. Two key catalysts drove this rally:

• Geopolitics & Supply: Heightened tensions in the Red Sea combined with OPEC+ extending production cuts into Q1 2026 provided strong support for crude prices.

• The “AI Power” Trade: A compelling new narrative is getting traction based on traditional energy as a critical enabler of the AI boom. Investors are betting that renewables alone cannot meet the massive power requirements of next-gen data centers, effectively repricing oil and gas majors as infrastructure plays.

Utilities (XLU) | +0.86% Utilities found a bid as investors sought defensive positioning amidst early-year uncertainty. Much like Energy, this sector is benefiting from the “AI power demand” thesis. Electricity providers are increasingly viewed as essential infrastructure required to sustain the technology sector’s expansion, transforming a traditional “boring” sector into a growth-adjacent play.

Materials (XLB) +0.61% & Industrials (XLI) +0.30% These sectors posted modest gains, underscoring the broader rotation toward “real economy” assets. As capital fled purely digital growth stocks, it found a home in the tangible industries that underpin manufacturing and production.

The Losers: Profit-Taking & Consumer Jitters

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | -3.46% The steepest declines were felt in Consumer Discretionary, driven by renewed anxieties over the health of the consumer.

• Spending Fatigue: Reports of lackluster holiday demand weighed heavily on sentiment.

• The Tesla Effect: Sector heavyweights dragged the index lower, most notably Tesla, which slid after reporting a decline in annual sales for the second consecutive year.

• Locking in Gains: After a stellar run in 2025, investors used the new tax year as an opportunity to book profits.

Technology (XLK) | -1.37% The leader of 2025 faced a wave of profit-taking to start the year. While the long-term thesis remains bullish for A.I., the short-term focus shifted to risk management.

Financials (XLF) -1.44% Financials lagged as general market caution and falling yields, which typically compress bank margins.

Refer a friend

High Probability Setups

Fundamental and macroeconomic factors have recently aligned with the overbought conditions seen in many of the assets we track. For this reason, over the last two weeks, I have included bearish opportunities in my list of high-probability setups. These can be monetized via short selling or, for those managing options, by purchasing puts.

The high-probability setups posted for paid subscribers over the last six weeks have achieved a 76% success rate.

Fundamental and macroeconomic factors have recently aligned with the overbought conditions seen in many of the assets we track. For this reason, over the last two weeks, I have included bearish opportunities in my list of high-probability setups. These can be monetized via short selling or, for those managing options, by purchasing puts.

Methodology: Each setup includes a price target for the week ahead and an invalidation level derived from modeled support and resistance levels for each security, a system thousands of subscribers have relied on for over 20 months. These levels help define momentum-based targets, while the Central Weekly Level (CWL) acts as a critical line in the sand for invalidation and stop-loss placement. This structure ensures you receive not just a trade idea, but the full technical context, target, and risk parameters.

While these setups are designed for the week ahead, some have multi-week potential. For example, the bullish thesis for LLY has appeared in our high-probability list for three consecutive weeks, just as the short thesis for TSLA has featured for two.

Occasionally, a setup may not gain traction immediately. This occurred recently with Bitcoin and MSFT; however, Bitcoin validated its bullish thesis this week, while MSFT broke lower. Both outcomes have been updated in the December 20th ideas log.

The most impulsive and profitable setup from last week was TSLA. It plunged to the third layer of support we anticipated, delivering a -7.1% move. A short position here was a major win, and put options would have yielded even significant returns.

Subscribe to the Paid / Premium plan now to unlock weekly high-probability setups. One single trade can cover the monthly subscription cost. My analysis focuses on clear price action and actionable insights, combining market studies and fundamental analysis to give you a true edge in your investing.

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In addition to the high probability setups, this publication consistently analyzes the following securities to provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions. Maintaining a consistent watchlist is key to improving performance; it allows you to refine the timing of your entries in case of having a preference for one or some securities, and effectively rotate capital when new opportunities emerge.

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

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Today’s Agenda:

• Momentum Map and SPX

• High Probability Setups

• Major Indices Volatility, Breadth, and Bitcoin

• Individual Stocks and ETFs

Momentum Map and SPX

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