The Q2 2026 earnings season has revealed a divergence between the broader market and the highly scrutinized mega-cap technology space, while Wall Street banks and key defensive sectors like healthcare have delivered strong results.

In the tech sector, sharp post-earnings stock declines for mega-caps like GOOG and TSLA were generally not caused by poor revenue or core business growth. Instead, a clear pattern of “AI cash burn anxiety” emerged. Both Alphabet and Tesla handily beat top-line expectations, with Google Cloud revenues surging and Tesla delivering solid vehicle metrics. However, Alphabet’s massive infrastructure spending pushed its quarterly free cash flow into a negative deficit, while Tesla’s core automotive margins narrowed due to EV price wars and heavy AI investments. Investors are no longer content with just impressive AI growth, and the market is aggressively punishing companies where massive capital expenditures actively drain free cash flow before showing direct, near-term monetization.

Why is the NDX 9% Below All-Time Highs While the SPX Is Down Just 3%?

In contrast to the tech sector’s volatile reception, major U.S. financial institutions kicked off the earnings season with strong results. JPMorgan (JPM) led the financial sector posting robust net profits and beating consensus EPS expectations. The overarching theme for big banks, including BAC, GS, MS; is a resurgence in capital markets. Wall Street trading desks and investment banking advisory fees surged, driven by a macro recovery in global mergers and acquisitions and high-volume equity trading, while consumer credit profiles remained stable.

Adding a vital defensive pillar to the broader market narrative, the healthcare sector delivered heavyweight support led by UnitedHealth Group (UNH), with a stellar Q2 report that crushed Wall Street expectations. Its medical care ratio improved signaling that medical cost utilization and Medicare Advantage pressures are normalizing faster than anticipated. Bolstered by disciplined cost management and raised full-year guidance. The broader healthcare landscape shows that defensive companies with pricing power and cost controls can insulate themselves from macro headwinds, offering a stable safe haven while capital cycles rotate away from overextended growth areas.

The Energy sector is being fueled by oil prices, the sector is projected to post the highest year-over-year earnings growth rate of all eleven S&P sectors, surging over 100%. This week XOM, SHEL, and CVX will post earnings reports and we will learn the actual effect of oil prices.

With that said we have three observations:

1. Corporate America remains profitable on an index level, with blended year-over-year S&P 500 earnings growth tracking near multi-year highs. From the fundamental or micro perspective the outlook is promising.

2. Capital is shifting away from priced-to-perfection AI hardware and software giants and flowing instead into historically disciplined, cash-flow-supportive sectors like financials, healthcare, and select cyclicals. The problem with that is the influence of technology in the general market and consumer discretionary.

3. Monitoring megacaps and high volume assets in general from different sectors is a healthy discipline, last week the anticipated bullish moves for JPM, IBIT, ETHA, GLD reached their targets, as the bottom I called for XOM three weeks ago continues working, the stock is up +15% from the bullish reversal call.

Unlock the premium content by upgrading to the paid plan. The complete set of charts and price targets for next week are below. The previous publications and this one are available at smartreversals.com.

With major companies reporting earnings next week, my daily note with SPX levels will also provide bullish-above and bearish-below levels along with their targets for the following securities: MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, META, XOM, V, QCOM, and KO (which are all posting earnings), as well as SPCX, which is technically oversold and will post earnings the following week.

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Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

• Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Let’s begin.

SPX: Next Week is Critical

This is a market with major moves overnight driven by not one, not two, nor three macro factors, but next week it will be driven by four macro factors (1) Conflict in Iran, 2) tariffs (Foreign Retaliation and/or White House Expansion Threats), 3) Fed meeting and PCE, 4) tech investors questioning when the major capital expenditures will be recovered) plus a fifth factor: the earnings report of many of the biggest companies based on market capitalization. This choppy market has brought major swings overnight and next week it is not expected to be any different.

Non-tech sectors have provided support for the S&P500, but if the market's reaction to next week's earnings reports mirrors the negative sentiment seen with GOOG and TSLA, the sell-off will likely continue. Last week for example, the expected bullish continuation for PLTR lost its central weekly level, while the anticipated bearish move for AMZN played out as projected, clearly accompanied by high volatility. Overall, last week proved to be a difficult period for the technology sector, dragging down the SPX and causing it to lose its Central Monthly Level on Thursday, which then acted as resistance on Friday as anticipated.

Technical conditions presented with the charts below provide a roadmap and tools to navigate this context, indicators give us direction probabilities, and price levels provide confirmations. Let’s begin with the SPX chart and then we continue with VIX, Breadth, and NDX to present the likely destination for this market move:

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This week’s economic indicators paint a picture of steady growth and a resilient labor market, though slight cracks are appearing in consumer activity. Labor market stability remains a highlight, as initial jobless claims fell by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 208,000, outperforming the consensus estimate of 217,000. Meanwhile, consumer spending showed steady headline demand, with June retail sales ticking up 0.2% as vehicle sales and online retail offset a steep drop in fuel prices. Anyway, core retail sales (excluding autos) unexpectedly dipped 0.2%. On the production side, the Philadelphia Fed Business Index surged to a blowout reading of 41.4 in July, crushing forecasts of 12.7 and signaling robust growth in northeastern manufacturing.

Why the Market Pullback? Three Macro Factors to Consider

Tech dragged down the SPX as this heat map presents for the week, below are the reasons:

First, the Federal Reserve, under newly appointed Chair Kevin Warsh, held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.6%. In his first congressional testimony this week, Warsh maintained a strict hawkish tone, reiterating that the Fed has no tolerance for sticky inflation and purposely avoiding any market-friendly forward guidance. The Federal Reserve’s recent Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) lifted core PCE inflation forecasts to 3.3% for 2026, with 9 out of 18 officials projecting at least one rate hike before the year concludes. Driven by rising energy prices and strong labor data, interest-rate futures markets have adjusted aggressively; traders now assign a 15% probability to a rate hike at the upcoming late-July meeting, while expectations for a hike in September have surged to roughly 65%.

Second, the U.S.– Iran ceasefire has officially collapsed as hostilities intensify, with U.S. airstrikes targeting Iranian infrastructure following a series of retaliatory strikes by Iran across the region. Tensions have further escalated in the Strait of Hormuz, where the U.S. has reimposed a naval blockade and Iran has begun targeting commercial shipping, leading to a 14% surge in oil futures CL=F this week to $81.7.

Finally, we must account for the intensifying pressure on semiconductors, driven by both structural and competitive shifts. TSMC recently raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to a range of $60 billion to $64 billion, significantly exceeding its previous $56 billion ceiling. For high-multiplier tech stocks, such a massive spike in capex implies heavier near-term depreciation loads and constrained free cash flow, leading investors to scrutinize whether the expected returns on this AI infrastructure truly justify such extreme spending. This skepticism is compounded by the rapid maturation of Chinese AI models, specifically Moonshot AI’s newly launched Kimi K3. By offering world-class performance through an open-weight, low-cost model, Chinese developers are effectively challenging the proprietary "walled gardens" of U.S. firms. As highly capable alternatives emerge globally, the market is beginning to question the sustainability of the current U.S. AI capital arms race and the eventual return on investment for the sector's darlings (AMD, MU, NVDA, AVGO, etc).

News are Catalysts for Technical Conditions

Everything is connected, and the recent events are consistent with two elements I have been documenting in this publication: The high odds of a bullish reversal in oil, and more specifically in XOM as a high probability setup posted last week considering a bullish reversal validated by a recovery of 139.6 with targets at 143 and extension to 147 (provided in S/R Levels), the stock jumped 6.1% this week closing at 147.4 🎯.

For semiconductors, the bearish conditions have been documented, last Saturday this publication highlighted the gap for SMH at 595 and the loss of key moving averages; for AMD I highlighted the gap a 522 and the shooting star in place. those elements are examples of technical conditions studied. As example of using levels as triggers we analyzed the implications (bearish destinations) for SMH and AMD if 598 and 541 were lost (547 🎯 and 468.8 🎯 were extended targets respectively, both securities reversed there on Friday).

=> Technical conditions + Levels are a strong formula to navigate the market.

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High Probability Setups

Neutrality: I remain bullish when technical conditions support it and bearish when a reversal is likely. This is an important distinction for new subscribers who may be accustomed to the inherent bias found in many other publications. For instance, there are metal-focused outlets that have maintained a bullish stance since March in Gold and Silver despite of the clear overextension that needed a major correction, crypto publications insisting in a bounce when technicals did not support that, and others that remain dogmatically bullish on semiconductors regardless of the charts.

Will they reach all-time highs again? Certainly. However, identifying exactly when and how much pain is required to get there is where neutral, professional technical analysis provides the most value.

I was bullish at the market bottom in late March providing clear references, targeting 7,638 for the SPX and announcing on the day that 7,620 was reached, that the milestone could be considered met. More recently, over the past two weeks, we have monitored the internal divergence in tech, including the bearish call in late June for semiconductors, while simultaneously providing specific bullish targets for a bounce in select Magnificent Seven names. That is neutrality, and that is how you outperform the market.

When indices are choppy, individual names are key: Three weeks ago, I highlighted the probabilities for a bullish reversal in Bitcoin, providing specific targets along with risk management and invalidation levels. Bitcoin and Ethereum, tracked via their respective ETFs, IBIT and ETHA, have since jumped 6% and 15% reaching this week our targets of 37 🎯 and over 14 🎯, respectively. MSFT surpassed this week our bullish target of 396 by nearing the documented extension at 406 for a 5.6% move 🎯, while WMT hit its bullish target extension at 117.3 for a 3% gain 🎯, and as mentioned above, XOM surpassed 147.6 with comfort 🎯.

Unlock this transparent and objective approach every week by upgrading to the paid plan, the setups for next week are here with price targets and risk management levels. Subscribers also get daily market updates with levels for the SPX, and access to educational content and Market Intelligence analyses.

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Everything is available at smartreversals.com. Zero gut feeling, everything is specific.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual charts and targets for all Magnificent 7 and megacaps.

• Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Today I included SpaceX in the charts, the stock has been tracked using levels from day 1, now there is a good set of data and technical signals that are worth watching.

Let’s begin.

SPX: Tech Lost the Critical level - Implications for SP500

We have been tracking this topping process, highlighting its various stages in this chart. From the early warnings that precede each pullback highlighted in each yellow box to the major confirmation sign forming today as the new convention highlights here for the S&P 500:

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Market volatility remains elevated, with semiconductors continuing to drive the major swings we are witnessing. This highlights the ongoing internal divergence within the technology sector: while semiconductors lead the decline, the Magnificent Seven have acted as a buffer, holding the NDX and XLK from falling with more conviction.

The Semiconductor Struggle: Micron (MU) continues to slide, down -21% this month and -28% from its June peak (when I highlighted the elevated risk of chasing the after earnings euphoria). As I have noted in recent weeks, this is a classic correction following overextension, similar to past patterns in Gold, Silver, PLTR, MSFT (2025), and NFLX (2025). Interestingly, while SMH fell -1.6%, AMD -3.5%, and TSM -3.4% this week, NVDA closed flat (+0.3%), remaining resilient amidst the sector storm.

The Tech Divergence: Today, the Magnificent Seven were mostly bullish, preventing a broader tech decline. AAPL (+4%), MSFT (+2.8%), AMZN (+3%), GOOG (+3.6%), and META (+3.1%) all outperformed, with TSLA the only outlier (-0.4%).

Trading Recap & Strategy: Yesterday, I provided a tactical hint on how to anticipate premarket ‘traps’ that vanish at the open. That setup played out perfectly today for the SPX and QQQ. People who set the timeframe and indicator I mentioned yesterday sow a live example of the likely reversal, and if using the daily levels anticipated yesterday for today, the navigation of the retrace was smooth until the price reached our Central Daily Level (CDL), where the market reversed. Today, the SPX 7,538 level acted as precise support at noon, while the 7,562 level served as our bullish recovery target.

Subscribe to the paid plan and receive daily market updates, including anticipated institutional-grade support and resistance levels for the S&P 500. Plan ahead your trades with this golden tool.

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Below, I have analyzed the most critical chart for this week, the one that will dictate the next leg for the NDX and SPX. I have also provided updated daily levels for the SPX, QQQ, SMH, IWM, DIA, IGV, as key ETFs, alongside high-probability setups updates for AAPL, MSFT, XOM, ETH, WMT; all of them moving in the expected direction, and others, all studied in the latest Weekly Compass.

When the indices are choppy, it pays to navigate individual names.

Let’s begin.

Market Direction - The One Chart You Need to Watch

This is the updated chart we began to track since Monday:

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The week was characterized by strong swings in indices and individual names; geopolitical tensions intensified following U.S. retaliatory military strikes against targets in Iran in response to attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, this sent global oil benchmarks soaring, with Brent crude jumping over 5% and nearing the $80-per-barrel mark. This spike in energy prices immediately reignited fears regarding persistent inflation, and when combined with Federal Reserve meeting minutes suggesting potential further interest rate hikes, the 10 year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.6%, reaching its highest level since May. Later in the week the U.S. president noted that while he has agreed to continue diplomatic talks, the tentative truce has officially been scrapped; then the market recovered and some oil gains were yielded.

In response to the shifting market landscape, sector performance diverged. The weekly move in the SPX remains constructive, though tech-driven (XLK). Materials (XLB), healthcare (XLV), industrials (XLI), consumer staples (XLP), and utilities (XLU) declined while real estate remained flat with discretionary and real state. Energy performed well; XLE still has a gap to fill at 56.22 and is showing a weekly bullish stochastic crossover, suggesting further upside.

With that said, we’re back to a bullish market driven by tech (XLC as communication sector was largely driven by the rally on META). However, there are divergences in tech that I have been tracking daily in this publication:

Two weeks ago, I highlighted the bullish probabilities for the magnificent seven based on a transparent analysis of volume, back then nobody was bullish on them, but we had the technical case and the support and resistance levels to validate the thesis; MSFT 🎯, GOOG 🎯, AAPL 🎯, TSLA 🎯, AMZN 🎯, and META 🎯 rallied reseting daily timeframes, then we monitored continuation, since some of them have long term weak setups, and in fact GOOG, AMZN and MSFT presented weakness this week.

All that happened in a context where semiconductors are suffering high volatility, also as anticipated from the very day when MU posted its earnings report 🎯, trapping many people who don’t have technical or risk management knowledge.

Among other setups, two weeks ago I highlighted the validity of being long in crypto, BTC and ETH have rallied +6% and +15% respectively 🎯.

A more recent call included the bullish one for NVDA, once our central Weekly Level (CWL) of 195 was conquered 🎯. These assessments have been based on technical indicators transparently described, providing specific price targets and invalidation levels to use as a reference for setting stop losses.

This level of specificity is the hallmark of this publication; it is easy to suggest that crypto or metals might bounce over the course of several months, but providing concrete, actionable levels is where the real value lies.

That level of specificity facilitates transparency. For this week, an invalidated setup was NFLX, a stock that is analyzed below with specific indicators, price levels and scenarios considering the earnings report that is coming next week.

Unlock this objective approach by upgrading to our premium plan. Subscribers gain access to exclusive educational content, Market Intelligence reports, and daily market updates featuring daily support and resistance levels for the SPX for the following trading session.

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Explore the content at smartreversals.com. Zero gut feeling, everything is specific.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

• Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Let’s begin.

SPX: Once Again Dependent on Tech

The index achieved a bullish resolution, hitting our weekly target of 7,566. Looking ahead to next week's outlook and targets, please remain mindful of the significant decline in this specific indicator; it is the primary divergence to monitor, and it is important to note that it is not an oscillator:

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U.S. stocks closed mixed today following a re-escalation in geopolitical tensions. Main market indexes experienced a highly volatile session, initially tumbling before trimming some losses. The Dow Jones fell-1.1%, probably an initial validation of the overheated signals studied for the previous week, the SPX closed slightly negative -0.3%, and the NDX closed +0.3% despite of the selloff in premarket this morning.

SMH Bounced +2%, How is it Possible?

Last night, I shared the SMH chart with subscribers, highlighting a bullish reversal candle at the lower band, an oversold Stochastic indicator, and the open gap above. As I noted, this “COULD trigger a bounce tomorrow”, which is what we saw today.

Was it a smooth bounce? Not at all. The morning selloff was strong, which is precisely why I provided modeled daily levels (bullish above / bearish below) for today. This included not only the standard SPX levels for paid subscribers in our daily edition, but also for QQQ, SMH, NVDA, AMD, MU, QCOM, TSM, and AMAT, allowing subscribers to validate every move using the central daily level (CDL) and the targets around it.

For example:

The Central Daily Level (CDL) for SMH was 578, with the price turning bullish above it and bearish below. At the open (9:32AM), the price recovered this level, triggering a bullish alert for long positions (and invalidating short positions). Furthermore, the index bounced to 589 and consolidated at 10:00 AM before reversing to revisit 578. It respected that level perfectly, subsequently rallying toward 589 and 597. These were all provided as modeled levels last night, where institutional algorithms often react, as we saw today.

Potential Bullish Setup + Central Level Recovered = Confirmation

Last night, I also highlighted NVDA’s bounce from its 200DMA and the importance of 195.5 as today’s CDL. Once the initial resistance at 199 was breached, the price moved to 202, the next modeled level, and closed the day in the green.

Similar accuracy was seen across MU, AVGO, QCOM, AMAT, TSM, and AMD, while the QQQ CDL at 710 served as resistance throughout the entire session.

Today, we will analyze charts for SPX, NDX, SMH, AAPL, NFLX, NVDA, and others, tracking also the high-probability setups posted on Saturday. As noted yesterday, the bearish target for SMH has essentially been reached, while the bullish targets for IBIT, ETHA, GLD had been reached as well.

Everything provided here is specific and transparent. I rely on technicals and specific-modeled levels, not gut feelings or macro projections that leave your capital at risk for months. Upgrade to the paid plan now.

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Tomorrow’s SPX levels are available here. Note how 7,418 acted as precise support and 7476 as resistance today, both were analyzed last night. Levels for QQQ, SMH, NVDA, MU, AMD, AVGO, QCOM, TSM, and the rest of the semiconductor set are also linked below, providing you with objective targets for tomorrow’s session.

Let’s begin.

SPX: On the Edge to Trigger Bearish Momentum

We use daily levels to anticipate short-term moves, weekly levels to navigate price action, and monthly levels to gauge longer-term momentum.

The Central Monthly Level (CML) was touched again today, this is what the chart and levels say:

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The U.S. stock market closed a holiday-shortened week with gains across large-cap indices, sentiment was fueled by a cooler-than-expected June jobs report, which eased immediate fears of aggressive interest rate hikes and encouraged a rotation out of tech and into blue-chip companies.

The Dow Jones reached a new all-time high, gaining 2.0% for the week, the S&P 500 (SPX) rose 1.7% to close at 7,483.24, while the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) added 0.7%; our well expected decline in semiconductors kept the tech-heavy index underperforming.

The Federal Reserve, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, maintains a “higher-for-longer” stance. The federal funds rate remains in the target range of 3.50% to 3.75%, with the next FOMC meeting scheduled for July 28–29, 2026. Current market consensus leans toward a pause in July, and CME FedWatch data shows a roughly 33% probability of a 25-basis-point hike. Despite this, hawkish sentiment is rising; the June “dot plot” indicated that most officials expect rates to end 2026 higher than current levels to combat sticky inflation, which was recently reported at 4.2%.

Last week, I highlighted the high probability of a bearish move in semiconductors, including a bold call for SMH to fall to 587 for a -3.8% decline. That level was reached by Thursday 🎯. I also warned of a bearish reversal for MU when euphoria peaked immediately following its earnings report on June 24. In the same way, the bounce for the Magnificent Seven was considered as a serious possibility including a high probability bounce for MSFT to 388 (+3.4%) 🎯. Six of the the magnificent Seven recovered their Central Weekly Levels (CWL), validating the bullish thesis. The only one that failed to recover its CWL was NVDA, the semiconductor representative of the group.

Central Weekly Levels (CWL) are specific price points modeled and posted every Friday for the week ahead for all securities on our watchlist. These levels provide a clear advantage before the market opens on Monday, allowing you to plan your trades without the stress of assessing charts and distances in real time. The Weekly Compass gathers these levels on Saturdays, analyzes the charts, and provides a blueprint of the week's setups in a single report, allowing you to comfortably formulate your trading plan and risk management strategy over the weekend.

Our watchlist focuses on megacaps and instruments with high daily volume that are fundamentally transparent and varied across sectors, ensuring we can capture opportunities as capital rotates:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

The S/R Levels for next week are here:

Unlock this objective approach by upgrading to the paid plan. Subscribers receive daily SPX levels posted every afternoon, also get access to educational content and Market Intelligence analyses, recent topics include previous IPO moves, SPX and Fed Chair transitions, semiconductor fundamentals, and how to get the most out of the high-probability setups. Everything is available at smartreversals.com. Zero gut feeling. Everything is specific.

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Today’s Agenda

Every Saturday, we dive into chart analysis and target setting using our updated weekly levels:

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

Let’s begin with the High Probability Setups review before the ones for next week:

Last week, I highlighted a bounce in the SPX as a high-probability setup targeting 7,419 (+2%); the index reached a weekly high of 7,540 🎯, BRK.B achieved its extended target of 506 (+1.7%), closing the week at 507.8 (+1.8%) 🎯.

For MSFT we expected a bounce to 388 (+3.4%); the stock surpassed that level, closing at 390 🎯. PLTR, another high-probability setup, targeted 125 for the week (+11%) and closed above at 129 🎯. Consistent with the divergence between the software/Magnificent Seven bounce and semiconductor weakness, I noted high odds for MU to visit 1,083 (-4.5% from June 26); the actual selloff reached -13.8% 🎯. Similarly, for AVGO, our target of 349 (-4.5%) remains a work in progress, as the stock closed at 360.

As mentioned above SMH was expected to fall to 587 for a -3.8% decline. That level was reached by Thursday 🎯.

A trade idea was shared also last week for Bitcoin (BTC) given its technical conditions: a buy targeting 63K with stop loss at 59.4K; BTC has bounced this week +4.5% already, sitting currently at 62.8K 🎯.

The Key message from the intra-week volatility in Semiconductors:

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The macroeconomic environment for the SPX has undergone a severe hawkish turn, fundamentally altering the trajectory of the broader market. The confluence of reaccelerating inflation, driven by geopolitical energy shocks and rising service sector costs, has forced the Federal Reserve to completely abandon any prospect of rate cuts for 2026. Instead, the market must now digest the reality of an active monetary tightening cycle.

The broader market remains entrenched in a rotational phase. The technology sector is facing mounting pressure. We are observing a sequence of weakness that originated in software, transitioned into the Magnificent Seven, and is now sending its first warning ripples through the semiconductor space.

Is this surprising? No. Technical analysis interprets price action, and price action is the ultimate driver of sentiment. IGV and MSFT topped in October when annual levels like $116 and $516 were reached, colliding with the upper band as MACD crosses were printed. PLTR topped in November following a weekly MACD cross and a breach of the upper band. Price action provides the signals, and the narrative follows, not the other way around. That is exactly why my focus remains strictly on price action and technical analysis. For the Magnificent Seven, early in May I anticipated a bullish visit to $317 for AAPL. The stock reached overbought conditions right at that exact level when June started 🎯. GOOG breached its upper weekly bands, and I anticipated a multi-week decline, which is currently unfolding 🎯 consistently below the central monthly level I anticipate for every month. NVDA also breached its upper band, while MSFT found rejection at its 40WMA after completing a bull flag move I also anticipated early in May targeting $459 🎯.

I navigate momentum and call reversals when technicals flag them, always providing clear price levels to validate each thesis, that’s how performance is enhanced.

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Semiconductors: Last Wednesday, I highlighted the elevated risk of chasing the rally when MU posted its earnings results. I presented the specific implications regarding gaps and price formations. The exact levels the SPX, QQQ, and SMH needed to conquer to validate the rally were explicitly posted, and those specific levels acted as precise resistance.

Regarding MU and AMD, I posted fundamental analyses last month documenting their underlying strength, meaning their rallies are well supported. However, their overbought conditions are currently comparable to NVDA, and GOOG in previous months and a consolidation is likely, just be mindful that following such rally consolidations can bring -5% moves in a single day and double digit moves for a couple of weeks (as anticipated for NVDA and GOOG). Therefore, the odds of semiconductors entering a topping/consolidation process are extremely high, as I warned last week.

Other euphorias worth remembering from 2025 and 2026 are: NFLX, META, MSFT, PLTR, GLD, SLV… technicals always pass their bill; anyway my pullback benchmarks for Semis are NVDA and GOOG.

Seasonality adds further pressure to this context. Midterm years are volatile, also the end of June is a particularly bearish season. Theoretically, tech bounces in July, and today we will study the specific technical conditions for each major stock. Some are likely to continue selling off, while others are approaching critical support zones.

The price action in the S&P 500 throughout the week was particularly weak for tech. This was not surprising for subscribers who read my high probability setups last Saturday, which anticipated a bearish move for SMH 🎯 and AMD 🎯 right at the peak of the euphoria. MSFT 🎯 continued falling as the technicals suggested, Gold (GLD 🎯) also expanded its selloff mode, and SPX 🎯 fell despite the Thursday rally.

Among my high probability setups, there were clear reversal signals for financials and oil. This past week simply augmented those reversal conditions, as we will study for JPM and the Dow Jones below.

Subscribe to get the complete technical setups for next week. My analysis is strictly neutral and focused on price action. That is why calling a bullish reversal on March 28 was spot on, just like my target for a bearish reversal in the SPX at 7638, where I notified subscribers that same week that 7620 was enough to consider the bearish reversal zone officially reached. Numbers (price levels I provide) and written analyses always tell the truth, and they are fully verifiable.

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Unlock this objective approach by upgrading to the paid plan. Subscribers also get access to educational content and Market Intelligence analyses, recent topics include previous IPO moves, SPX and Fed Chair transitions, semiconductor fundamentals, and how to get the most out of the high-probability setups. Everything is available at smartreversals.com. Zero gut feeling. Everything is specific.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

• The Heat Rank: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Let’s begin.

SPX: Are the Magnificent Seven Brewing a Tactical Move?

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U.S. equities closed the week with gains, as investors weighed a firm Federal Reserve stance against a landmark interim agreement between the United States and Iran. The S&P 500 advanced 0.9% to 7,500.6.

The Federal Open Market Committee, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, held benchmark rates in the 3.5% to 3.75% range and signaled no near-term intention to ease. The decision briefly rattled markets midweek before equities recovered and pushed higher. In the corporate arena, SpaceX reversed from our $225 level on Tuesday, following a warning sign posted to Subscribers on Monday, the stock closed the week in 185, securing a valuation of $2.4 trillion.

I am posting daily levels for SpaceX exclusively for paid subscribers. If you’re watching this stock, upgrade to the paid plan to get access now.

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Across asset classes, the U.S. Dollar Index held near a one-year high of 100.7 as currency markets absorbed the rate outlook. Investors and traders must consider a multi-month bullish move as the setup for DXY suggests. Gold logged a third consecutive weekly decline, trading between $4,150 and $4,172 per ounce expectation for a bounce occurred reaching the target, but a stronger USD makes gold more expensive to buy, which causes demand and prices to drop.

Crude settled near $76.5, with supply concerns offset by progress on the geopolitical front. Looking ahead, the focus shifts to the PCE price index, final Q1 GDP figures, and earnings from Micron Technology (MU) and FedEx (FDX).

High Probability Setups

Each week, I assess the technical conditions for a set of megacaps and high-volume assets available in the options market. The analysis is presented as a blueprint with specific targets and invalidation levels to protect capital.

If you follow assets like SPX, QQQ, NVDA, and TSLA, this publication covers charts and levels for all of them across three posts per week. The same applies if you prefer MSFT, AAPL, IBIT, and GOOG, to name a few.

Since the watchlist spans different sectors, LLY, WMT, JPM, V, IWM, and more, you can also rotate your focus toward the setups most likely to reach their targets.

This creates a consistent roadmap for both long-term investors and active traders. We have tracked multi-week moves in AAPL, LLY, GOOG, Bitcoin for investors, and setups with a 4% weekly move for traders.

With that said: the bullish targets for JPM 🎯, GLD 🎯, WMT 🎯, AMZN 🎯, META 🎯, IBIT 🎯, and GOOG 🎯 were all reached during the week, and so was the bearish target for LLY 🎯. The bullish reversal for MSFT did not play out, nor did the bearish one for AAPL, that puts the week at an 80% success rate for the setups I highlighted as more likely to reach their targets. Anyway, subscribers focused on QQQ or SPY also saw those securities reach the specific bullish targets posted in last week’s Blueprint while subscribers who like TSLA, they saw the loss of the key weekly level.

Unlock this objective approach by upgrading to the paid plan. Subscribers also get access to educational content and Market Intelligence analysis, recent topics include previous IPO moves, SPX history and Fed Chair transitions, semiconductor fundamentals, and how to get the most out of the high-probability setups. Everything is available at smartreversals.com.

Here are the links to the latest publications, essential reading for both investors and traders looking to navigate this market with confidence:

Unlock all the content with the paid subscription.

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Today, we will analyze the market internals that are flagging caution, including the charts, price targets and most likely moves for the upcoming week.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

• The Heat Rank: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Let’s begin.

SPX Warns Below the Surface; Dow Jones Signals Caution

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U.S. equities closed a volatile week with broad gains. Falling oil prices followed geopolitical headlines, and the blockbuster SPCX IPO stabilized the tape after a -4% sharp selloff in the SPX and -6% in the NDX. The S&P 500 bounced and closed positive +0.65% for the week. the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) added 2.3%, and the Dow Jones climbed 0.7%. The week was not clean, the S&P 500 and the Dow swung wildly mid-week on optimism about the conflict with Iran. Small caps joined the late rally with the Russell 2000 advanced 4.0% during the week.

SpaceX (SPCX): The company sold 555.6 million shares at $135 each, a $1.77 trillion valuation. The stock opened at $150, an 11.0% premium, and held 20.0% above the offer price through its debut. The the soft action shows declines in other mega-cap tech names as investors sell what they own to fund what they want. See the weekly heat map below with the Magnificent Seven declining while the broad SPX was green. Only TSLA made it for a bounce and semiconductors held firm.

I wrote a special study about IPOs, the move just observed for SPCX is not new, unlock the study focused on technical moves, seems that SpaceX is moving like two of them already.

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Macro: Consumer data improved at the margin. The preliminary June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index rose to 48.9 from 44.8 in May, helped by lower gasoline prices early in the month. Inflation concerns remain elevated. The setup into next week is constructive but earned session by session.

Setups Blueprint: AAPL, MSFT, SPX, AVGO, GLD declined as expected this week🎯, and VXX bounced as expected 🎯, all of them averaging a +5% gain 🎯🎯🎯. With that said, I reframed a standard industry momentum map to a proprietary Heat Rank where I set the technical conditions from overbought to oversold and the reversal risk for all the securities in our watchlist. It has been useful to set a blueprint where every subscriber see the stocks better classified and navigated the ones highlighted or subscribers’ preferred stocks. This applies for the following watchlist:

• Indices & ETFs: SPX/SPY, NDX/QQQ, DJI/DIA, IWM, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX, ETHA, IBIT

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

If you invest or trade one or some of them, they are always analyzed in my publications including bullish/bearish conditions, specific price targets, and invalidation levels. Subscribe to the paid plan and unlock it.

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Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts + levels for Indices, ETFs, Volatility, Breadth, and Crypto.

• The Heat Rank: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

Let’s begin.

SPX: Initial Bearish Target Nailed - Elliot Wave Assessment for Continuation

Last Friday, I posted with the weekly S/R levels the most likely pullback destination using the Fibonacci retracement approach, with $7,311 as the confluence zone with our support levels. The thesis proved accurate, the current bounce could still be part of a pullback considering the recent lack of conviction. Let’s examine reversal zones from an Elliott Wave perspective, again combined with our S/R levels to increase reliability, the arrows in the chart highlight the likely destination zone for this move:

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U.S. equities closed the first week of June with steep losses as a stalled technology rally and rising interest rate expectations pressured the market. A much stronger than expected May labor report triggered the reversal from overbought levels called during the recent days (and reinforced on Thursday afternoon to paid subscribers). The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs last month, far above forecasts of 85,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, and upward revisions to March and April added another 93,000 jobs. The data erased expectations for near-term rate cuts. Investors sold government bonds aggressively, pushing Treasury yields higher and strengthening the dollar. Markets are now fully pricing a quarter-point rate increase by year-end under new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.

Higher energy costs and rising borrowing rates triggered a sharp rotation out of A.I. Sectors told a risk-off story during the week. Money leaned during the week toward energy (XLE +2.5%), healthcare (XLV +2.4%) and real estate (XLRE +1.6%), a defensive and value tilt rather than a chase for high-beta growth. Healthcare is testing monthly resistance near 153.0 with indecision, and real estate recovered both its weekly and monthly lines ($44). Meanwhile technology (XLK -5.6%) and discretionary (XLY -5.0% ) lost both their central weekly and central monthly levels, a major reversal sign triggered between January and February of this year ahead of March selloff. Communications followed in the ranking of weekly losers (XLC -3.5%).

This Reversal was Expected

The stock market has been in overheated conditions during the last two weeks, however, the market was fueled by geopolitical optimism and our key annual target had not been reached. On Wednesday, I wrote in the market update that my $7,638 target could be considered reached after the $7,620 weekly mark had been touched on Tuesday. $7,638 has been in my charts since the beginning of the year, and was updated as bullish target a month ago considering a specific weekly setup action studied for paid subscribers. The thesis is being validated 🎯.

When I establish a target for a weekly, monthly, or annual timeframe, I rely strictly on: 1) Technical indicators (and overbought conditions were flagged in the weekly chart, much more reliable than daily conditions), 2) price action patterns (Recent indecision at the highs), and 3) support and resistance levels modeled well ahead of price action.

The accuracy includes individual names, over a month ago I highlighted 317 as the bullish target for AAPL, the recent high before printing the current weekly shooting star pattern was 316.9.

My charts include annual levels that you see consistently week by week, paid subscribers saw the rejection that NVDA suffered at the 239 zone 🎯, not to mention the precision this week for SMH, reversing at 642, the same annual level 🎯.

Are annual levels hard resistance always? no, they aren’t, for that reason I highlight the relevance when it applies, and these cases involved overheated conditions considering my set of technical indicators that is transparently explained in every publication for each chart, making the content insightful and educational like no other.

🎯 The setups highlighted last weekend with high probability included bearish reversals for AAPL, SMH, IWM, and AMD, a bullish reversal for VXX, and bullish setups for MSFT and PLTR, which moved to their targets on Monday before sharp reversals (highlighting the importance of having S/R levels calculated in advance to set targets). That is a total of 7 setups with the correct direction 🎯 and 2 setups that did not deliver the bullish expectation: META and GLD. Their respective references to set stop losses and protect capital were 0.6% and 0.9% below the price.

In total, 7 of 9 or 77% of the setups highlighted were correct. The gain of the accurate setups averaged 4% including bullish and bearish targets. 🎯

Are you always following SPX, NDX, GLD, NVDA, TSLA or other securities? Good news for you, their setups are ALWAYS studied with targets and invalidation levels in every publication, I just highlight some setups for reasons described for each case.

Subscribe to get immediate access to our comprehensive analysis of the US indices, the Magnificent Seven, Bitcoin, core ETFs like SPY, QQQ, IWM, SMH, and GLD, and key mega-caps. All setups are summarized into a clear blueprint featuring structural bullish or bearish probabilities, precise price targets, and the exact levels needed to protect your capital. Charts included for further transparency of the considerations.

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Today’s Agenda:

• SPX and Market Context: Includes Volatility, Breadth, NDX, DJI, SMH, IWM, Crypto.

• Heat Rank (New Feature): All the securities in our watchlist ranked from overbought to oversold conditions.

• Deep Dive (charts) into Individual Names: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, TSLA, NVDA, META, AMZN, AMD, WMT, LLY, BRK.B, and GLD.

• Setups Blueprint: Bullish/bearish conditions for each name, price target, risk control price for the watchlist, included the ones listed above, and also NFLX, PLTR, V, AVGO, XOM, VXX, and more.

Let’s begin with our core index,

SPX - Wall Hit Printing Reliable Reversal Setup

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The stock market has entered a highly choppy environment characterized by rapid, day-to-day reversals. For instance, NVDA rallied 6.2% on Monday only to reverse -3.2% today. Similarly, IWM posted a +0.93% bullish move yesterday but is down -1.3% today. These sudden, signal-free shifts illustrate just how volatile conditions can get. As we observed during the reversals of February 2025 and February 2026, this type of price action requires extreme caution.

Keep in mind that this choppy price action is triggering right after the S&P 500 neared $7638, the target I updated a couple of weeks ago. With this week’s recent high tagging $7,620 and then losing the weekly level, we can consider that target reached.

Today, we will focus on updating the setups anticipated for this week, AAPL reversed as anticipated last weekend breaching the already bearish target of $308 (-1.3%) 🎯, same IWM crossing below the bearish target of $287 (-0.9%) 🎯, and AMZN reversing as expected breaching the third bearish layer of 250.9 (-7.3%) 🎯. Meanwhile, MSFT and PLTR rapidly neared their bullish targets on Monday 🎯 before quickly reversing.

We will also analyze the anticipated bullish reversal volatility (VIX), up +4.4% this week already.

This edition is dedicated to managing high-probability setups and practicing strict risk management using our weekly support and resistance levels as reference points. We will also cover the daily SPX levels for tomorrow, alongside deep dives into IWM, the VIX, GLD, the Magnificent Seven (TSLA, NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, META), and observations for other setups like AVGO, PLTR, SMH and Bitcoin.

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Let’s stay cautious, navigate these setups carefully, and begin our analysis with the technical charts and price levels to watch.

SPX and Volatility

The S&P 500 experienced a breakdown in short-term market architecture as price action slipped beneath critical confluent zones as follows:

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U.S. equity markets closed the holiday-shortened week of May 25 with meaningful gains and new record highs across the major indices. The S&P 500 added 1.4% to settle at 7,580, completing

its 9th consecutive weekly advance. The Nasdaq 100 led the tape with a 2.9% gain to close at 30,333. The Dow added 0.9% to finish at 51,032, while the Russell 2000 gained 1.7% to close at 2,919. Investors rotated into growth through the week validating bullish setups anticipated in this publication last week for AAPL (+4.1%), MSFT (+7.5%), TSLA (+3.4%), and LLY (+6.1%). All of them reaching levels anticipated one week before 🎯🎯🎯🎯.

Technology drove the bulk of the advance, with artificial intelligence spending expectations continuing to set the tone. Micron crossed a historic threshold this week, surpassing $1 trillion in market capitalization. Computer hardware surged late in the week after DELL and NTAP both delivered earnings that exceeded expectations, lifting the infrastructure group broadly. On the software side, MSFT provided support after announcing an upcoming AI-native coding framework. ORCL and SNOW each posted double-digit percentage gains on the week.

Crude oil fell 9.5% to settle at $87.7 per barrel after reports emerged of a provisional 60-day ceasefire framework between the United States and Iran targeting the Strait of Hormuz. The energy drop pulled Treasury yields lower, with the 10-year settling at 4.45%. Core inflation came in at 3.3% year-over-year for April, keeping the Federal Reserve in a wait-and-see posture on rate cuts. Gold faced pressure and settled at $4,560 per ounce after bouncing from a key support line studied below in the paid content.

Key Economic Events Next Week:

Next week will be crucial for two reasons:

1. The SPX has to prove the latest weekly move holding this price zone, and specifically its central weekly level that differentiates between bullish momentum and consolidation or bearish reversal if it is breached. For the complete set of levels included NDX, QQQ, SPY, DIA, all the Magnificent Seven, Futures, and other megacaps make sure to read the updated levels posted yesterday after the close, they have audio content guiding about the benefits of using levels.

2. The Semiconductor Giants must hold the line and keep the current valuations, price action is overbought across the board: MU, AMD, INTC, TXN, AVGO, and others are overextended, and NVDA is already in pullback mode after being overbought. We will study today, as usual, SMH, NVDA, AMD and AVGO in the paid content below. Only one has a likely solid bullish setup, the others look toppy.

Sell in May and Goo Away?

There are widespread overextensions and open gaps to consider, not only in Semiconductors but across the SPX, NDX, and IWM. June is historically a strong month (finishing green in 9 out of the last 10 years with the sole exception of 2022, which was a midterm election year). We will soon see if June continues this dominant uptrend, or if it validates the alternative statistic marking it as the worst performing month of a midterm cycle.

The best game plan: Reading the technical indicators as we do permanently, stay prepared, use our levels for validation, and carefully consider the potential of individual names as we do every week with the individual setups mapped for our watchlist focused on high volume and market cap names. Subscribe and unlock all the content and publications posted every week.

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Today’s Agenda:

• SPX and Market Context: Includes Volatility, Participacion, NDX, DJI, ETFs, Crypto.

• Heat Rank (New Feature): All the securities in our watchlist ranked from overbought to oversold conditions.

• Deep Dive into Individual Names: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, TSLA, NVDA, META, AMZN, AMD, AVGO, V, LLY, GLD, and PLTR.

• Setups Blueprint: Bullish/bearish conditions for each name, price target, risk control price for the watchlist. I highlight some of them and you can choose the ones you prefer.

Let’s begin,

SPX: Another Early Warning or Finally a Consolidation Begins?

Indecision + High Volume + Overbought conditions are usually meaningful, these are the points to consider and indicators to track:

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The stock market has begun flashing consolidation signals over the last two weeks. The first warning arrived last week when the S&P 500 printed a shooting star on the weekly timeframe, while the NASDAQ posted indecisive candles just above essential resistance lines. This past Friday, the indices followed up by printing indecisive price action at overbought conditions in the case of the Dow Jones. This type of indecisive price action suggests that a consolidation phase lies ahead. Ultimately, this has been an exceptionally powerful rally, but now the market must digest its recent gains.

At the same time, we are seeing breaking positive news over the weekend regarding a potential peace deal between the United States and Iran. To navigate these developments, today’s analysis will focus heavily on technical conditions and our central weekly levels, which we always use as our primary structural tool to validate market direction: remaining above these levels confirms valid bullish momentum, while breaking below them shifts the bias to bearish momentum. While several structural charts are signaling near-term exhaustion and a healthy consolidation ahead, we will use the levels for the week ahead to objectively validate these technical signals. Our primary focus is to blend the potential geopolitical good news with strict price criteria, identifying the exact levels that must be maintained or recovered to ensure a sustainable bullish extension.

Different conditions and opportunities in our watchlist

The core question for this week centers on the flip of relative weakness: assets like NVDA, AVGO, MSFT, and GOOG are already showing vulnerability relative to their support and resistance levels, not to mention COST, and WMT. They serve as case studies for the upcoming sessions. If a peace-deal rally takes hold on Tuesday, will the upward momentum be powerful enough to help these specific names recover their lost structural levels? Will the potential deal fuel stocks like META, PLTR, NFLX, V or BRK.B that are showing constructive price action, forming a potential bullish reversal? And lastly, will the news keep XOM below its momentum line, or is it a potential long if the deal reverses?

Meanwhile, for the securities that are showing exhaustion signals yet to be confirmed and are likely to open above their central weekly levels (SPX, NDX, DIA, AAPL, AMZN, IWM, SMH), the specific lines they must defend are referenced in the charts below with their upside targets resting above the central weekly level. Those upside targets are watch out zones, since technical indicators provide advance warnings that, sooner or later, play out in the price action when a target rejects the price and central levels are lost.

TSLA, BTC, LLY, JPM are in a different cluster of securities that are worth studying for both traders and long term investors.

Today, we will break down the precise conditions for each security, highlighting the essential price levels that must hold to maintain a bullish posture, as well as the key levels that lagging assets need to reclaim. As an early indicator, Bitcoin is already reacting constructively to the headlines. Serving as a 24/7 thermometer for risk-on appetite.

Every asset features unique technical conditions and specific price levels that are analyzed individually using charts and key data points. This gives you a comprehensive view of both bullish and bearish opportunities, all consolidated into a single blueprint or dashboard to help you make informed decisions with clear targets and risk management levels.

Get access to the premium content by upgrading your subscription to the paid plan.

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Let’s begin the analysis.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, SMH, Volatility, Breadth, and Bitcoin.

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Mega Caps including TSLA, NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, META, PLTR, AVGO, JPM, and more.

Market Context

During the week, several tech names posted bearish moves such as NVDA, AVGO, and GOOG to name the biggest ones, while stocks in defensive sectors showed green for the 5 day period as presented here:

Breadth has improved, and it’s worth noting that Utilities and Healthcare as defensive sectors outperformed tech. Let’s study the trend, being mindful of internals and individual names that are showing solid setups.

SPX - Will the Good News Invalidate Exhaustion Signals?

It is a well-known market adage that bottoms are events, while tops are processes. What we are currently observing is a localized increase in volatility and choppy price action, which is a standard characteristic of broader consolidation processes. These are the bullish and bearish facts, with the indicators to monitor next week:

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Back in November 2025, I published a special study outlining our primary bullish target for 2026: 7,470 on the SPX. Today, that exact mark has been reached, defying the widespread pessimism observed back in March. That analysis was rooted entirely in documented technical patterns, with zero gut feeling involved.

Last Wednesday, our Market Intelligence study provided a clear roadmap for what to expect over the next few months, and Friday’s reversal appears to strongly validate the thesis we laid out.

Furthermore, back on March 28, this publication highlighted the high probability of a bounce. By disciplined tracking of our weekly SPX levels and key technical indicators, we successfully navigated a 16%+ rally using one simple rule: remain bullish above the Central Weekly Level, while monitoring broader technical conditions.

Today, the price action has printed a significant structural signal, and we will navigate it with that same rigorous discipline. Unlike on March 28, when the market was severely oversold and technical indicators signaled a bottom, today the market is entering heavily overbought territory, and a critical level looks set to be breached heading into next week.

Alongside the broader indices, we continue to navigate individual equity setups. This past week, our price targets for JPM, TSLA, and AAPL were all hit with precision. Reversals for IBIT, V, and MSFT unfolded as anticipated, and capital protection protocols were triggered for LLY and XOM. That brings our weekly track record to six accurate moves versus two that went in the opposite direction but were protected by our risk parameters. Because every setup I present includes clear price targets and invalidation levels, subscribers can easily use them as a reference to set stop-losses tailored to their own risk tolerance.

In today’s edition, we will study a combination of long-term macro trends alongside high-probability, near-term tactical moves. Upgrade to the premium paid plan now to unlock all the exclusive content and over 20 charts with clear facts and price targets.

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This is about navigating the market with informed, data-driven decisions, not about simply being a bull or a bear.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts and price levels for SPX, U.S. Indices, Volatility, Breadth, and Crypto.

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of Indices, the Magnificent Seven, Crypto, and other megacaps in one easy-to-read chart.

• Setups Blueprint: All setups condensed with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing high probability setups.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps (20+ charts).

Let’s begin,

Market Context - SPX - Major Price Action Signal:

On Wednesday, we studied how consolidations and pullbacks are likely when the price reaches overbought conditions, the publication was named “Why Bears Should Stand Ready”, this is the likely move coming:

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The Value of Objective Discipline: Navigating a +16% Rally

On March 28th, this publication anticipated how oversold the S&P 500 was, based on three essential technical indicators. Premium subscribers were able to see the confluence of these metrics and the high likelihood of a bounce, a move that was confirmed once the Central Weekly Level (CWL) of 6,458 was recovered. This occurred on Tuesday, March 31st, as the S&P 500 rallied 2.9%. Additionally, I introduced my Founding Members' daily levels for all subscribers. These provided an early bullish signal as long as the price remained above 6,362, offering an extra layer of validation, earlier entry for longs, and enhanced risk management.

Because a gap was left open that day, I published a specialized “Wednesday Study” providing an objective analysis of the risks involved. By highlighting gap behavior following extreme oversold conditions, using 50+ years of data dating back to 1970, I demonstrated that these gaps are structurally normal. This study proved essential for navigating the initial gap at 6,349 and the subsequent gap at 6,618 on April 7th.

Neutral, objective technical analysis and the disciplined study of patterns are the best ways to navigate this market. I save you that burden by providing these deep dives, and premium subscribers can always ask me to study specific major events.

Technical Clarity Over Market Noise

When the market was characterized by apathy, I provided an essential reference during the week that ended on April 10th: the significance of 6,816. This, (a key moving average) was statistically and historically studied to confirm its relevance under those market conditions. As you know, my preferred timeframe is the weekly chart, which removes the “noise” of daily volatility.

When the price opened above that essential weekly average during the week of April 17th, premium subscribers recognized the reality of the recovery. The S&P 500 subsequently delivered its third weekly rally, gaining +4.5%. Following this, I analyzed the “Three Weekly Soldiers” pattern (three consecutive weeks of +3% gains) and its historical tendency to lead into consolidations. Using data since 1970, I showed that if a pullback happened, the setup remained fundamentally bullish, and here we are.

Current Conditions and the Fed Transition

Recently, there has been significant noise regarding the risk of a new Federal Reserve Chair. Last Wednesday, I provided an analysis showing the pullbacks that have followed those events, considering magnitude, time, and as always, technical indicators forming a pattern. Having navigated this +17% rally with discipline and neutrality, we are finally reaching indicators that compare with historical consolidations.

I have mentioned different studies posted during this rally, you can access all of them in my Market Intelligence hub, always visible in the SmartReversals site. There are more studies that are worth the subscription for long term investors and traders.

Visit the Market Intelligence Hub

Preparing for the Week Ahead

My study on Saturdays involves a consistent set of securities, starting with the SPX, NDX, and Dow Jones, continuing with key ETFs such as SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM, SMH, SLV, and GLD. The analysis covers the full Magnificent Seven, other mega-caps like AVGO, JPM, LLY, PLTR, and WMT, Bitcoin, and essential volatility and breadth indicators. Every ETF and stock in this publication includes the critical weekly and monthly levels required for precise navigation. Last week alone the bullish moves for GOOG and TSLA were posted with specific price targets, $397 for GOOG was reached with precision. Long term moves are also navigated, in addition to the SPX and NDX, my bullish call for Bitcoin has been sustained during all these weeks, for a +18% gain.

These levels are modeled every Friday for the week ahead, providing the clarity needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. Rather than waiting for the opening bell to build your plan, you receive the distance to key levels and technical setups, suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance, well in advance. This allows you to make informed, calm decisions before the trading week begins.

Today, we will analyze the current state of the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, the implications of semiconductors in this overextended rally. We will also look at the Dow Jones and what it is saying, Small Caps, and individual names.

Subscribe to unlock every setup. All charts include specific targets and invalidation levels designed to help you manage risk and protect capital in a volatile market. We will now begin our deep dive into the mega-cap universe, the major U.S. indices, and the technical signals driving the current trend.

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Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts and price levels for SPX, U.S. Indices, Volatility, Breadth, and Crypto.

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of Indices, the Magnificent Seven, Crypto, and other megacaps in one easy-to-read chart.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps (20+ charts).

• Setups Blueprint: All setups condensed with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing higher probability setups.

Let’s begin,

Market Context

After studying the recent rally and the likelihood of its continued bullish momentum, we are beginning to see a significant deterioration in stock participation. A sector-level analysis reveals that last week’s move was driven by Technology and Semiconductors. While Energy declined, consistent with geopolitical news and the drop in oil, Utilities, Healthcare, and Financials all closed in the red, losing more than 1%. Other sectors remained neutral, with the upside being heavily influenced by Technology and Consumer Discretionary (specifically AMZN and TSLA).

With Financials and Healthcare under pressure, the critical question is: how much more room does Technology have to run?

SPX - First Overbought Signs:

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Back on March 28, I highlighted in this publication how likely was the market to bounce, the call was unpopular, but my role is to assess the price action with neutrality, when the market is exhausted I call it for both directions, and that was the case back then.

I highlight technical conditions, not news, not noise, price action generally precedes them, and this time was no different like in the tariff war in 2025, the further inflation fears in 2022. My statements included:

“Oversold conditions have been seriously reached”, “If the market does not set a relief bounce next week, it would be against the trend of the last 25 years including the dot com and the great financial crisis”

My analysis is clear and specific: I use indicators to identify potential reversals, and I use modeled price levels to validate the technical thesis. This validation occurs either by confirming a reversal (where a specific level must be reclaimed by bulls or lost by bears) or by monitoring a consolidation where a level flips from support to resistance or vice versa. For example, on that day I noted the weekly levels that must hold to consider a bounce a true recovery: SPX at 6,429.8, SPY at 640.1, and QQQ at 568.5, with similar requirements for the SMH, IWM, DIA, and the Magnificent Seven. The recovery of those levels occurred on Tuesday March 31st.

Since then, technical indicators have been analyzed week by week to highlight bullish conditions and specific price levels. These are updated every week, with the Central Weekly Level (CWL) serving as the validator of momentum. Alongside this, the Central Monthly Level (CML) remains essential for assessing the longer term structure for both investors and traders.

Today, following an +11% move in the SPX and a 16%+ surge in the NDX, we must assess price action through the lens of mixed signals: long term indicators remain bullish, while the very short term has become overheated.

This publication provides ongoing analysis of the SPX, NDX, DJI, SMH, IWM, and the VIX, alongside the Magnificent Seven and other mega-caps like AVGO, AMD, and PLTR. Last Saturday’s “Setups Blueprint” (a summarized report highlighting the technical bias for each security) maintained a bullish outlook for the SPX, projecting a weekly move between 7,206 and 7,248 (+0.6% to +1.2%); the final outcome was +0.91%. For the NDX, the blueprint anticipated a +1.2% move to 27,610, while the final weekly move reached +1.5% at 27,710.

In today’s edition, we will study a combination of long term trends and short term potential moves, utilizing weekly and monthly levels to establish targets and validate each technical thesis. Upgrade to the paid plan and unlock all the content.

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Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for SPX, U.S. Indices, Volatility, Breadth, and Crypto.

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps (20+ charts).

• Setups Blueprint: Summary with short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing higher probability setups.

Is the market getting ready for a consolidation? will bears have a chance? Toda’s publication brings 5 specific indicators to monitor and make informed decisions.

Let’s begin.

SPX: Combining Short Term Warnings and Long term Setups

We are approaching my bullish target for 2026. The velocity of this move is unprecedented, and seasonal factors, such as the midterm election cycle, must be considered. The chart highlights:

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The week ending April 24 delivered a technically rich but internally divided market. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 consolidated as anticipated in the previous Weekly Compass, with the SPX filling its gap at $7,051.2 as likely considered. Tech (NDX) surged +2.4% for the week, and the semiconductor sector printed a +9.1% breakout reaching unprecedented overbought conditions that we will study today. The Three Green Soldiers pattern on the SPX and NDX weekly chart mentioned last week is in bullish play, and Bitcoin continues moving north since it was anticipated three weeks ago. The cryptocurrency has gained +13.7% since, and Ethereum +9.9%.

But beneath the surface, a different story has been developing. The stock participation has decreased from 78% to 59% over four sessions while the SPX moved higher. Fewer than 53% of stocks are above their 50-day average. The rally that carried the index was not a broad market recovery. It was a semiconductor event, with INTC, TXN, MU, AMD, AVGO, and SMH doing the heavy lifting with weekly moves above 9% each, while software names (NOW, ADBE, ORCL, PLTR) collapsed or yielded gains respectively. The financial sector leadership (JPM, V, BRK.B) deteriorated. That divergence is the defining tension entering the most important earnings week of 2025: Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta all report.

Will semiconductors consolidate next week? Can the ‘Magnificent Five’ deliver the bullish results the market expects? Will non-tech sectors continue their decline, or can Software stage a recovery?

The indicators to navigate these questions are detailed in this publication. We analyze SMH, NVDA, AVGO, and AMD with specific levels that, if held, would validate a bullish continuation. Additionally, the charts for all the ‘Magnificent Seven’ are always here along with non-tech megacaps, identifying the critical support and resistance levels to watch. Regarding software, a special edition was posted last Wednesday following the sell-off; get access using the link:

Fundamental + technical Special: PLTR, ORCL, NOW, PANW, ADBE, CRM, SAP, CRWD

Another key read for the Magnificent Seven in the A.I. era was posted this month, this is key for the week ahead:

Investing in the AI Era: MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, META, AMZN, TSLA, AVGO, NVDA

Upgrade to the paid plan and unlock all the content with the charts and analysis for the week ahead.

Today’s Agenda

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for U.S. Indices, Volatility, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Magnificent Seven and other Megacaps.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Let’s begin,

Momentum Map: A New and Disparate Order

As anticipated few weeks ago, the red quadrant offered good opportunities for longs, and that was correct, after three weeks a new leadership emerged, but keep an eye on this hidden points to consider:

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Last week we studied the relevance of $6,816, with historical charts that presented how important is the recovery of the 20 weekly average, now that it happened it can be mentioned here for everyone, with the SPX +4.5% above that line.

Receding conflict in the Middle East provided the primary lift for sentiment. Equities rallied after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz completely open following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon. The reopening of this trade route triggered a sharp decline in energy markets. Brent crude futures dropped 8.7% to $90.71 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures slid 10.6% to $84.69. Despite the broad shift into riskier assets, gold remained elevated at approximately $4,823, reflecting sustained interest in traditional safe havens. In crypto, Bitcoin and Ethereum have rallied above 6% this week so far.

Technically speaking, the selloff in oil has reached oversold conditions, and yesterday I posted in the S/R levels edition the chart for XOM, that is currently suggesting a potential spike (spike does not mean all time highs).

Corporate earnings and technology developments also drove significant price action. Oracle gained nearly 30% for the week, boosted by new artificial intelligence agreements, while Goldman Sachs rose 3.13% on Friday following solid first-quarter results. On the negative side, Netflix dropped between 9.7% after issuing a disappointing revenue forecast for the second quarter. The quantum computing sector saw massive volatility, with stocks like D-Wave Quantum and IonQ soaring over 50% after Nvidia launched a new open-source quantum AI model.

Despite of the rally, NFLX proves that every company must prove their ratios otherwise Wall Street will punish a disappointing earnings result. From our Blueprint of trades posted last Saturday, we saw good performance this week, with NVDA, AAPL, QQQ, JPM, IBIT, ETHA, META, and even NFLX surpassing their bullish targets. PLTR, TSLA, and V reversed as expected also printing rallies, while LLY was the only security that went in the unexpected direction but our Central Weekly Level (CWL) used as a reference for stop losses protects capital.

Every setup posted in this weekend’s publication includes price targets, invalidation levels, and a risk-reward ratio. This allows you to make informed decisions based on technical indicators and modeled levels where algorithms typically react, as paid subscribers have experienced for over two years. Unlock the analysis for this week by upgrading your subscription.

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The week’s price action underscores a market recalibrating around two powerful forces: geopolitical relief and AI-driven momentum. With the S&P 500 now at record highs and the Nasdaq on a historic run, the burden of proof shifts to earnings season to validate these elevated levels. Investors should watch whether the energy pullback translates into improved consumer sentiment and whether tech leadership can broaden beyond the usual names. For now, the bulls are firmly in control, but complacency at all-time highs rarely pays.

Securities Analyzed Every Week:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Having a constant set of securities allows you to anticipate rotations and to time better individual names. If you trade some of the securities listed, this publication is for you.

Today’s Agenda

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for the SPX, U.S. Indices, Volatility, Breadth, and Bitcoin.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps (20+ charts).

Let’s begin.

Momentum Map

To our new subscribers: welcome. It is always helpful to recall the cyclical nature of the market. Stocks bounce from oversold conditions (improving), rally into strength (leading), hit overbought extremes, and eventually pullback (weakening) to become laggards. I integrated this rotation feature into the Weekly Compass a year ago, and it has been remarkably consistent.

We saw this cycle play out with the euphoria in NFLX after the 2025 crash, followed by PLTR, MSFT, and Bitcoin, all of which declined sharply in Q4 2025. Meanwhile, names like GOOG, LLY, SLV, and GLD looked unstoppable in rally mode until they fell sharply. As we stand today, the cycle will inevitably continue its course.

All the securities mentioned are analyzed in our Momentum Map, allowing you to identify opportunities and threats in a single glance. Combined with the individual charts included here, you can easily assess whether a reversal is imminent or if the current momentum still has room to run.

Using this tool the bullish reversal thesis for stocks like META, COST, BITCOIN, and even NFLX were anticipated recently. Just last weekend this approach was key to consider the bounces for PLTR, V, and TSLA.

The updated momentum map, followed by the SPX analysis, the setups blueprint for next week, and the individual charts continue here:

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U.S. equities experienced another weekly rally. Major indices surged on Wednesday following news of a tentative two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, which also facilitated a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite climbed 3.5% and 4.4% respectively during the week. Last week I highlighted the major relevance of $6,503 for the SPX, and despite intra-day volatility, the index managed to close abobe that level on Monday and Tuesday, and considering the weekly setup preceding price action, the bullish resolution was just consistent with the technical conditions.

With that level conquered, the high probability setups performed very well. Premium subscribers received last week the bullish targets and invalidation levels for: SPY, QQQ, AMD, NFLX, NVDA, AAPL, COST, META, AGVO, and MSFT; also with the bearish setup for XOM. All of them reached their targets, even Microsoft that reversed its move during the week. The success rate was 100%. Unlock the setups for next week, including the technical charts and the market overview, with the SPX as the core of this publication.

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Premium subscribers have access to special analyses where I noted that a correction at this stage of the market was normal. I also highlighted why a transition into a bear market at this juncture would be highly unusual. However, considering many questions I received during the end of march, I outlined the worst case scenario for a decline. I always listen to your questions, and when I notice a recurring pattern, I address it through dedicated reports. Those special publications are a must-read for both traders and long-term investors:

Access » Bear Market Bottoms in One Predictable Pattern

When you subscribe to the paid plan, you get special analysis that give north to our trading setups, the complete Market Intelligence Library is here, including educational content:

Access » Market Intelligence Library and eBooks

In the crypto space, Bitcoin surged past our the key $69,7K level early in the week as risk appetite recovered, if you’re a Crypto enthusiast, today’s publication presents an essential setup.

Macro News to Consider

Economic indicators painted a mixed picture. The March Consumer Price Index met expectations, rising 0.9% for the month and 3.3% year over year. This headline figure was heavily influenced by a 10.9% monthly jump in energy prices, the sharpest increase since September 2005. Gasoline prices soared 21.2% for the month, pushing the national average above $4 a gallon. On a more constructive note, core CPI (which excludes volatile food and energy costs) came in slightly cooler than anticipated, rising 0.2% for the month and 2.6% annually. The labor market remained surprisingly firm, with March non-farm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, far exceeding the forecast of 65,000. Last but not least, the University of Michigan’s sentiment index dropped 11% in April to 47.6. One-year inflation expectations also jumped to 4.8% from 3.8% in March.

Today’s Agenda

• Technical Signals Vs Sentiment: Key level to watch next week for the SPX, completing the 28 years study posted last night with the levels.

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the opportunities in a single chart.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for the SPX, U.S. Indices, Key ETFs, Magnificent 7, Crypto, and Megacaps.

• Market Context: Analyses for SPX, VIX, NDX, DJI, Bitcoin, and Breadth

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps (20+ charts).

Let’s continue, upgrade your subscription to the paid plan and unlock the content.

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Technical Signals vs. Sentiment

Considering the questions I received at the end of March, I’m keeping several bullish signals on the SPX, NDX, IWM, DJI, and Bitcoin charts that I posted when anticipating the bounce. It is essential to analyze technical events objectively, removing emotion from the equation, when you’re a real experienced trader you don’t panic, you manage risk and trust the process. My goal is to help you become a better investor and trader, markets will always face corrections, and you must remember which signals preceded the bounce in previous occurrences.

SPX: The Key Level to Watch Next Week

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Despite the extreme bearish sentiment last weekend, I anticipated that a bounce was coming, citing a high likelihood of a relief rally, “as the SPY, QQQ, IWM, and DIA were showing potential for a trend reversal.” Pessimism was as high as it was in April 2025, but staying focused on technical indicators is essential, regardless of the noise.

Markets closed the first week of April with their first weekly gain since the Iran conflict began. The S&P 500 rose 3.4%, the Dow added nearly 3%, IWM rallied 3.4%, and the Nasdaq 100 surged 4%. In addition, other bullish setups were anticipated by this publication last Saturday: AMZN (bouncing 5.2% during the week) and NFLX (5.6%). A consolidation for XOM was expected, and on Monday, I highlighted the bearish reversal setup that initiated the -6% selloff seen this week.

For a forecast built on prudence in the current market conditions, this represents a 100% win rate. I am posting daily levels to help paid subscribers navigate this volatile market. Subscribe now and unlock the analysis for next week.

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The Week Ahead: The question for the week ahead is not whether volatility will continue, it likely will. The real question is how oil prices, the Dollar Index, and the VIX will behave. The geopolitical escalations we saw late this week carry enough weight to significantly dampen sentiment, and every rally must recover the Central Weekly and Monthly Levels posted here to prove its sustainability.

Bearish Sentiment is High: Over the last 30 years, we have seen this level of bearish sentiment only a few times, as highlighted in the chart below using the current 55% bearish sentiment leve as a reference. Given this week’s bounce from those extreme conditions, we must now monitor if this move will last two or three weeks (as typically seen even during bear market rallies) or if it will be short-lived, similar to 2025 when the market saw only a one-week relief before resuming the Tariff Crash. The full analysis is below.

Essential Tools to Navigate this Market: During this period, while many celebrated Holy Week and Easter, I released two essential publications. The first presents the single metric that has timed bear market bottoms for decades. The charts speak for themselves; there is no gut feeling involved. This is data every investor and trader must be aware of.

• Bear Market Bottoms in One Predictable Pattern

The second publication provides the Support and Resistance Levels for next week and the month of April. These levels have proven to be an accurate “bullish above / bearish below” threshold. The indices must consolidate above them next week before we can consider any further bullish continuation.

• Gap Filled - Assessing Resistance or Upside

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Today’s Agenda

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for U.S. Indices, Volatility, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analyses for Metals and Mega Caps.

Upgrade your subscription to the paid plan; unlock the full content with charts, price levels and most probable setups for next week.

Momentum Map

Few times the momentum map anticipates this many opportunities in the market:

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