U.S. equities closed a volatile week with broad gains. Falling oil prices followed geopolitical headlines, and the blockbuster SPCX IPO stabilized the tape after a -4% sharp selloff in the SPX and -6% in the NDX. The S&P 500 bounced and closed positive +0.65% for the week. the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) added 2.3%, and the Dow Jones climbed 0.7%. The week was not clean, the S&P 500 and the Dow swung wildly mid-week on optimism about the conflict with Iran. Small caps joined the late rally with the Russell 2000 advanced 4.0% during the week.

SpaceX (SPCX): The company sold 555.6 million shares at $135 each, a $1.77 trillion valuation. The stock opened at $150, an 11.0% premium, and held 20.0% above the offer price through its debut. The the soft action shows declines in other mega-cap tech names as investors sell what they own to fund what they want. See the weekly heat map below with the Magnificent Seven declining while the broad SPX was green. Only TSLA made it for a bounce and semiconductors held firm.

I wrote a special study about IPOs, the move just observed for SPCX is not new, unlock the study focused on technical moves, seems that SpaceX is moving like two of them already.

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Macro: Consumer data improved at the margin. The preliminary June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index rose to 48.9 from 44.8 in May, helped by lower gasoline prices early in the month. Inflation concerns remain elevated. The setup into next week is constructive but earned session by session.

Setups Blueprint: AAPL, MSFT, SPX, AVGO, GLD declined as expected this week🎯, and VXX bounced as expected 🎯, all of them averaging a +5% gain 🎯🎯🎯. With that said, I reframed a standard industry momentum map to a proprietary Heat Rank where I set the technical conditions from overbought to oversold and the reversal risk for all the securities in our watchlist. It has been useful to set a blueprint where every subscriber see the stocks better classified and navigated the ones highlighted or subscribers’ preferred stocks. This applies for the following watchlist:

• Indices & ETFs: SPX/SPY, NDX/QQQ, DJI/DIA, IWM, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX, ETHA, IBIT

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

If you invest or trade one or some of them, they are always analyzed in my publications including bullish/bearish conditions, specific price targets, and invalidation levels. Subscribe to the paid plan and unlock it.

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Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts + levels for Indices, ETFs, Volatility, Breadth, and Crypto.

• The Heat Rank: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

Let’s begin.

SPX: Initial Bearish Target Nailed - Elliot Wave Assessment for Continuation

Last Friday, I posted with the weekly S/R levels the most likely pullback destination using the Fibonacci retracement approach, with $7,311 as the confluence zone with our support levels. The thesis proved accurate, the current bounce could still be part of a pullback considering the recent lack of conviction. Let’s examine reversal zones from an Elliott Wave perspective, again combined with our S/R levels to increase reliability, the arrows in the chart highlight the likely destination zone for this move:

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U.S. equities closed the first week of June with steep losses as a stalled technology rally and rising interest rate expectations pressured the market. A much stronger than expected May labor report triggered the reversal from overbought levels called during the recent days (and reinforced on Thursday afternoon to paid subscribers). The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs last month, far above forecasts of 85,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, and upward revisions to March and April added another 93,000 jobs. The data erased expectations for near-term rate cuts. Investors sold government bonds aggressively, pushing Treasury yields higher and strengthening the dollar. Markets are now fully pricing a quarter-point rate increase by year-end under new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.

Higher energy costs and rising borrowing rates triggered a sharp rotation out of A.I. Sectors told a risk-off story during the week. Money leaned during the week toward energy (XLE +2.5%), healthcare (XLV +2.4%) and real estate (XLRE +1.6%), a defensive and value tilt rather than a chase for high-beta growth. Healthcare is testing monthly resistance near 153.0 with indecision, and real estate recovered both its weekly and monthly lines ($44). Meanwhile technology (XLK -5.6%) and discretionary (XLY -5.0% ) lost both their central weekly and central monthly levels, a major reversal sign triggered between January and February of this year ahead of March selloff. Communications followed in the ranking of weekly losers (XLC -3.5%).

This Reversal was Expected

The stock market has been in overheated conditions during the last two weeks, however, the market was fueled by geopolitical optimism and our key annual target had not been reached. On Wednesday, I wrote in the market update that my $7,638 target could be considered reached after the $7,620 weekly mark had been touched on Tuesday. $7,638 has been in my charts since the beginning of the year, and was updated as bullish target a month ago considering a specific weekly setup action studied for paid subscribers. The thesis is being validated 🎯.

When I establish a target for a weekly, monthly, or annual timeframe, I rely strictly on: 1) Technical indicators (and overbought conditions were flagged in the weekly chart, much more reliable than daily conditions), 2) price action patterns (Recent indecision at the highs), and 3) support and resistance levels modeled well ahead of price action.

The accuracy includes individual names, over a month ago I highlighted 317 as the bullish target for AAPL, the recent high before printing the current weekly shooting star pattern was 316.9.

My charts include annual levels that you see consistently week by week, paid subscribers saw the rejection that NVDA suffered at the 239 zone 🎯, not to mention the precision this week for SMH, reversing at 642, the same annual level 🎯.

Are annual levels hard resistance always? no, they aren’t, for that reason I highlight the relevance when it applies, and these cases involved overheated conditions considering my set of technical indicators that is transparently explained in every publication for each chart, making the content insightful and educational like no other.

🎯 The setups highlighted last weekend with high probability included bearish reversals for AAPL, SMH, IWM, and AMD, a bullish reversal for VXX, and bullish setups for MSFT and PLTR, which moved to their targets on Monday before sharp reversals (highlighting the importance of having S/R levels calculated in advance to set targets). That is a total of 7 setups with the correct direction 🎯 and 2 setups that did not deliver the bullish expectation: META and GLD. Their respective references to set stop losses and protect capital were 0.6% and 0.9% below the price.

In total, 7 of 9 or 77% of the setups highlighted were correct. The gain of the accurate setups averaged 4% including bullish and bearish targets. 🎯

Are you always following SPX, NDX, GLD, NVDA, TSLA or other securities? Good news for you, their setups are ALWAYS studied with targets and invalidation levels in every publication, I just highlight some setups for reasons described for each case.

Subscribe to get immediate access to our comprehensive analysis of the US indices, the Magnificent Seven, Bitcoin, core ETFs like SPY, QQQ, IWM, SMH, and GLD, and key mega-caps. All setups are summarized into a clear blueprint featuring structural bullish or bearish probabilities, precise price targets, and the exact levels needed to protect your capital. Charts included for further transparency of the considerations.

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Today’s Agenda:

• SPX and Market Context: Includes Volatility, Breadth, NDX, DJI, SMH, IWM, Crypto.

• Heat Rank (New Feature): All the securities in our watchlist ranked from overbought to oversold conditions.

• Deep Dive (charts) into Individual Names: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, TSLA, NVDA, META, AMZN, AMD, WMT, LLY, BRK.B, and GLD.

• Setups Blueprint: Bullish/bearish conditions for each name, price target, risk control price for the watchlist, included the ones listed above, and also NFLX, PLTR, V, AVGO, XOM, VXX, and more.

Let’s begin with our core index,

SPX - Wall Hit Printing Reliable Reversal Setup

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The stock market has entered a highly choppy environment characterized by rapid, day-to-day reversals. For instance, NVDA rallied 6.2% on Monday only to reverse -3.2% today. Similarly, IWM posted a +0.93% bullish move yesterday but is down -1.3% today. These sudden, signal-free shifts illustrate just how volatile conditions can get. As we observed during the reversals of February 2025 and February 2026, this type of price action requires extreme caution.

Keep in mind that this choppy price action is triggering right after the S&P 500 neared $7638, the target I updated a couple of weeks ago. With this week’s recent high tagging $7,620 and then losing the weekly level, we can consider that target reached.

Today, we will focus on updating the setups anticipated for this week, AAPL reversed as anticipated last weekend breaching the already bearish target of $308 (-1.3%) 🎯, same IWM crossing below the bearish target of $287 (-0.9%) 🎯, and AMZN reversing as expected breaching the third bearish layer of 250.9 (-7.3%) 🎯. Meanwhile, MSFT and PLTR rapidly neared their bullish targets on Monday 🎯 before quickly reversing.

We will also analyze the anticipated bullish reversal volatility (VIX), up +4.4% this week already.

This edition is dedicated to managing high-probability setups and practicing strict risk management using our weekly support and resistance levels as reference points. We will also cover the daily SPX levels for tomorrow, alongside deep dives into IWM, the VIX, GLD, the Magnificent Seven (TSLA, NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, META), and observations for other setups like AVGO, PLTR, SMH and Bitcoin.

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Let’s stay cautious, navigate these setups carefully, and begin our analysis with the technical charts and price levels to watch.

SPX and Volatility

The S&P 500 experienced a breakdown in short-term market architecture as price action slipped beneath critical confluent zones as follows:

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U.S. equity markets closed the holiday-shortened week of May 25 with meaningful gains and new record highs across the major indices. The S&P 500 added 1.4% to settle at 7,580, completing

its 9th consecutive weekly advance. The Nasdaq 100 led the tape with a 2.9% gain to close at 30,333. The Dow added 0.9% to finish at 51,032, while the Russell 2000 gained 1.7% to close at 2,919. Investors rotated into growth through the week validating bullish setups anticipated in this publication last week for AAPL (+4.1%), MSFT (+7.5%), TSLA (+3.4%), and LLY (+6.1%). All of them reaching levels anticipated one week before 🎯🎯🎯🎯.

Technology drove the bulk of the advance, with artificial intelligence spending expectations continuing to set the tone. Micron crossed a historic threshold this week, surpassing $1 trillion in market capitalization. Computer hardware surged late in the week after DELL and NTAP both delivered earnings that exceeded expectations, lifting the infrastructure group broadly. On the software side, MSFT provided support after announcing an upcoming AI-native coding framework. ORCL and SNOW each posted double-digit percentage gains on the week.

Crude oil fell 9.5% to settle at $87.7 per barrel after reports emerged of a provisional 60-day ceasefire framework between the United States and Iran targeting the Strait of Hormuz. The energy drop pulled Treasury yields lower, with the 10-year settling at 4.45%. Core inflation came in at 3.3% year-over-year for April, keeping the Federal Reserve in a wait-and-see posture on rate cuts. Gold faced pressure and settled at $4,560 per ounce after bouncing from a key support line studied below in the paid content.

Key Economic Events Next Week:

Next week will be crucial for two reasons:

1. The SPX has to prove the latest weekly move holding this price zone, and specifically its central weekly level that differentiates between bullish momentum and consolidation or bearish reversal if it is breached. For the complete set of levels included NDX, QQQ, SPY, DIA, all the Magnificent Seven, Futures, and other megacaps make sure to read the updated levels posted yesterday after the close, they have audio content guiding about the benefits of using levels.

2. The Semiconductor Giants must hold the line and keep the current valuations, price action is overbought across the board: MU, AMD, INTC, TXN, AVGO, and others are overextended, and NVDA is already in pullback mode after being overbought. We will study today, as usual, SMH, NVDA, AMD and AVGO in the paid content below. Only one has a likely solid bullish setup, the others look toppy.

Sell in May and Goo Away?

There are widespread overextensions and open gaps to consider, not only in Semiconductors but across the SPX, NDX, and IWM. June is historically a strong month (finishing green in 9 out of the last 10 years with the sole exception of 2022, which was a midterm election year). We will soon see if June continues this dominant uptrend, or if it validates the alternative statistic marking it as the worst performing month of a midterm cycle.

The best game plan: Reading the technical indicators as we do permanently, stay prepared, use our levels for validation, and carefully consider the potential of individual names as we do every week with the individual setups mapped for our watchlist focused on high volume and market cap names. Subscribe and unlock all the content and publications posted every week.

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Today’s Agenda:

• SPX and Market Context: Includes Volatility, Participacion, NDX, DJI, ETFs, Crypto.

• Heat Rank (New Feature): All the securities in our watchlist ranked from overbought to oversold conditions.

• Deep Dive into Individual Names: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, TSLA, NVDA, META, AMZN, AMD, AVGO, V, LLY, GLD, and PLTR.

• Setups Blueprint: Bullish/bearish conditions for each name, price target, risk control price for the watchlist. I highlight some of them and you can choose the ones you prefer.

Let’s begin,

SPX: Another Early Warning or Finally a Consolidation Begins?

Indecision + High Volume + Overbought conditions are usually meaningful, these are the points to consider and indicators to track:

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The stock market has begun flashing consolidation signals over the last two weeks. The first warning arrived last week when the S&P 500 printed a shooting star on the weekly timeframe, while the NASDAQ posted indecisive candles just above essential resistance lines. This past Friday, the indices followed up by printing indecisive price action at overbought conditions in the case of the Dow Jones. This type of indecisive price action suggests that a consolidation phase lies ahead. Ultimately, this has been an exceptionally powerful rally, but now the market must digest its recent gains.

At the same time, we are seeing breaking positive news over the weekend regarding a potential peace deal between the United States and Iran. To navigate these developments, today’s analysis will focus heavily on technical conditions and our central weekly levels, which we always use as our primary structural tool to validate market direction: remaining above these levels confirms valid bullish momentum, while breaking below them shifts the bias to bearish momentum. While several structural charts are signaling near-term exhaustion and a healthy consolidation ahead, we will use the levels for the week ahead to objectively validate these technical signals. Our primary focus is to blend the potential geopolitical good news with strict price criteria, identifying the exact levels that must be maintained or recovered to ensure a sustainable bullish extension.

Different conditions and opportunities in our watchlist

The core question for this week centers on the flip of relative weakness: assets like NVDA, AVGO, MSFT, and GOOG are already showing vulnerability relative to their support and resistance levels, not to mention COST, and WMT. They serve as case studies for the upcoming sessions. If a peace-deal rally takes hold on Tuesday, will the upward momentum be powerful enough to help these specific names recover their lost structural levels? Will the potential deal fuel stocks like META, PLTR, NFLX, V or BRK.B that are showing constructive price action, forming a potential bullish reversal? And lastly, will the news keep XOM below its momentum line, or is it a potential long if the deal reverses?

Meanwhile, for the securities that are showing exhaustion signals yet to be confirmed and are likely to open above their central weekly levels (SPX, NDX, DIA, AAPL, AMZN, IWM, SMH), the specific lines they must defend are referenced in the charts below with their upside targets resting above the central weekly level. Those upside targets are watch out zones, since technical indicators provide advance warnings that, sooner or later, play out in the price action when a target rejects the price and central levels are lost.

TSLA, BTC, LLY, JPM are in a different cluster of securities that are worth studying for both traders and long term investors.

Today, we will break down the precise conditions for each security, highlighting the essential price levels that must hold to maintain a bullish posture, as well as the key levels that lagging assets need to reclaim. As an early indicator, Bitcoin is already reacting constructively to the headlines. Serving as a 24/7 thermometer for risk-on appetite.

Every asset features unique technical conditions and specific price levels that are analyzed individually using charts and key data points. This gives you a comprehensive view of both bullish and bearish opportunities, all consolidated into a single blueprint or dashboard to help you make informed decisions with clear targets and risk management levels.

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Let’s begin the analysis.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, SMH, Volatility, Breadth, and Bitcoin.

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Mega Caps including TSLA, NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, META, PLTR, AVGO, JPM, and more.

Market Context

During the week, several tech names posted bearish moves such as NVDA, AVGO, and GOOG to name the biggest ones, while stocks in defensive sectors showed green for the 5 day period as presented here:

Breadth has improved, and it’s worth noting that Utilities and Healthcare as defensive sectors outperformed tech. Let’s study the trend, being mindful of internals and individual names that are showing solid setups.

SPX - Will the Good News Invalidate Exhaustion Signals?

It is a well-known market adage that bottoms are events, while tops are processes. What we are currently observing is a localized increase in volatility and choppy price action, which is a standard characteristic of broader consolidation processes. These are the bullish and bearish facts, with the indicators to monitor next week:

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Back in November 2025, I published a special study outlining our primary bullish target for 2026: 7,470 on the SPX. Today, that exact mark has been reached, defying the widespread pessimism observed back in March. That analysis was rooted entirely in documented technical patterns, with zero gut feeling involved.

Last Wednesday, our Market Intelligence study provided a clear roadmap for what to expect over the next few months, and Friday’s reversal appears to strongly validate the thesis we laid out.

Furthermore, back on March 28, this publication highlighted the high probability of a bounce. By disciplined tracking of our weekly SPX levels and key technical indicators, we successfully navigated a 16%+ rally using one simple rule: remain bullish above the Central Weekly Level, while monitoring broader technical conditions.

Today, the price action has printed a significant structural signal, and we will navigate it with that same rigorous discipline. Unlike on March 28, when the market was severely oversold and technical indicators signaled a bottom, today the market is entering heavily overbought territory, and a critical level looks set to be breached heading into next week.

Alongside the broader indices, we continue to navigate individual equity setups. This past week, our price targets for JPM, TSLA, and AAPL were all hit with precision. Reversals for IBIT, V, and MSFT unfolded as anticipated, and capital protection protocols were triggered for LLY and XOM. That brings our weekly track record to six accurate moves versus two that went in the opposite direction but were protected by our risk parameters. Because every setup I present includes clear price targets and invalidation levels, subscribers can easily use them as a reference to set stop-losses tailored to their own risk tolerance.

In today’s edition, we will study a combination of long-term macro trends alongside high-probability, near-term tactical moves. Upgrade to the premium paid plan now to unlock all the exclusive content and over 20 charts with clear facts and price targets.

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This is about navigating the market with informed, data-driven decisions, not about simply being a bull or a bear.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts and price levels for SPX, U.S. Indices, Volatility, Breadth, and Crypto.

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of Indices, the Magnificent Seven, Crypto, and other megacaps in one easy-to-read chart.

• Setups Blueprint: All setups condensed with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing high probability setups.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps (20+ charts).

Let’s begin,

Market Context - SPX - Major Price Action Signal:

On Wednesday, we studied how consolidations and pullbacks are likely when the price reaches overbought conditions, the publication was named “Why Bears Should Stand Ready”, this is the likely move coming:

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The Value of Objective Discipline: Navigating a +16% Rally

On March 28th, this publication anticipated how oversold the S&P 500 was, based on three essential technical indicators. Premium subscribers were able to see the confluence of these metrics and the high likelihood of a bounce, a move that was confirmed once the Central Weekly Level (CWL) of 6,458 was recovered. This occurred on Tuesday, March 31st, as the S&P 500 rallied 2.9%. Additionally, I introduced my Founding Members' daily levels for all subscribers. These provided an early bullish signal as long as the price remained above 6,362, offering an extra layer of validation, earlier entry for longs, and enhanced risk management.

Because a gap was left open that day, I published a specialized “Wednesday Study” providing an objective analysis of the risks involved. By highlighting gap behavior following extreme oversold conditions, using 50+ years of data dating back to 1970, I demonstrated that these gaps are structurally normal. This study proved essential for navigating the initial gap at 6,349 and the subsequent gap at 6,618 on April 7th.

Neutral, objective technical analysis and the disciplined study of patterns are the best ways to navigate this market. I save you that burden by providing these deep dives, and premium subscribers can always ask me to study specific major events.

Technical Clarity Over Market Noise

When the market was characterized by apathy, I provided an essential reference during the week that ended on April 10th: the significance of 6,816. This, (a key moving average) was statistically and historically studied to confirm its relevance under those market conditions. As you know, my preferred timeframe is the weekly chart, which removes the “noise” of daily volatility.

When the price opened above that essential weekly average during the week of April 17th, premium subscribers recognized the reality of the recovery. The S&P 500 subsequently delivered its third weekly rally, gaining +4.5%. Following this, I analyzed the “Three Weekly Soldiers” pattern (three consecutive weeks of +3% gains) and its historical tendency to lead into consolidations. Using data since 1970, I showed that if a pullback happened, the setup remained fundamentally bullish, and here we are.

Current Conditions and the Fed Transition

Recently, there has been significant noise regarding the risk of a new Federal Reserve Chair. Last Wednesday, I provided an analysis showing the pullbacks that have followed those events, considering magnitude, time, and as always, technical indicators forming a pattern. Having navigated this +17% rally with discipline and neutrality, we are finally reaching indicators that compare with historical consolidations.

I have mentioned different studies posted during this rally, you can access all of them in my Market Intelligence hub, always visible in the SmartReversals site. There are more studies that are worth the subscription for long term investors and traders.

Visit the Market Intelligence Hub

Preparing for the Week Ahead

My study on Saturdays involves a consistent set of securities, starting with the SPX, NDX, and Dow Jones, continuing with key ETFs such as SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM, SMH, SLV, and GLD. The analysis covers the full Magnificent Seven, other mega-caps like AVGO, JPM, LLY, PLTR, and WMT, Bitcoin, and essential volatility and breadth indicators. Every ETF and stock in this publication includes the critical weekly and monthly levels required for precise navigation. Last week alone the bullish moves for GOOG and TSLA were posted with specific price targets, $397 for GOOG was reached with precision. Long term moves are also navigated, in addition to the SPX and NDX, my bullish call for Bitcoin has been sustained during all these weeks, for a +18% gain.

These levels are modeled every Friday for the week ahead, providing the clarity needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. Rather than waiting for the opening bell to build your plan, you receive the distance to key levels and technical setups, suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance, well in advance. This allows you to make informed, calm decisions before the trading week begins.

Today, we will analyze the current state of the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, the implications of semiconductors in this overextended rally. We will also look at the Dow Jones and what it is saying, Small Caps, and individual names.

Subscribe to unlock every setup. All charts include specific targets and invalidation levels designed to help you manage risk and protect capital in a volatile market. We will now begin our deep dive into the mega-cap universe, the major U.S. indices, and the technical signals driving the current trend.

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Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts and price levels for SPX, U.S. Indices, Volatility, Breadth, and Crypto.

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of Indices, the Magnificent Seven, Crypto, and other megacaps in one easy-to-read chart.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps (20+ charts).

• Setups Blueprint: All setups condensed with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing higher probability setups.

Let’s begin,

Market Context

After studying the recent rally and the likelihood of its continued bullish momentum, we are beginning to see a significant deterioration in stock participation. A sector-level analysis reveals that last week’s move was driven by Technology and Semiconductors. While Energy declined, consistent with geopolitical news and the drop in oil, Utilities, Healthcare, and Financials all closed in the red, losing more than 1%. Other sectors remained neutral, with the upside being heavily influenced by Technology and Consumer Discretionary (specifically AMZN and TSLA).

With Financials and Healthcare under pressure, the critical question is: how much more room does Technology have to run?

SPX - First Overbought Signs:

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Back on March 28, I highlighted in this publication how likely was the market to bounce, the call was unpopular, but my role is to assess the price action with neutrality, when the market is exhausted I call it for both directions, and that was the case back then.

I highlight technical conditions, not news, not noise, price action generally precedes them, and this time was no different like in the tariff war in 2025, the further inflation fears in 2022. My statements included:

“Oversold conditions have been seriously reached”, “If the market does not set a relief bounce next week, it would be against the trend of the last 25 years including the dot com and the great financial crisis”

My analysis is clear and specific: I use indicators to identify potential reversals, and I use modeled price levels to validate the technical thesis. This validation occurs either by confirming a reversal (where a specific level must be reclaimed by bulls or lost by bears) or by monitoring a consolidation where a level flips from support to resistance or vice versa. For example, on that day I noted the weekly levels that must hold to consider a bounce a true recovery: SPX at 6,429.8, SPY at 640.1, and QQQ at 568.5, with similar requirements for the SMH, IWM, DIA, and the Magnificent Seven. The recovery of those levels occurred on Tuesday March 31st.

Since then, technical indicators have been analyzed week by week to highlight bullish conditions and specific price levels. These are updated every week, with the Central Weekly Level (CWL) serving as the validator of momentum. Alongside this, the Central Monthly Level (CML) remains essential for assessing the longer term structure for both investors and traders.

Today, following an +11% move in the SPX and a 16%+ surge in the NDX, we must assess price action through the lens of mixed signals: long term indicators remain bullish, while the very short term has become overheated.

This publication provides ongoing analysis of the SPX, NDX, DJI, SMH, IWM, and the VIX, alongside the Magnificent Seven and other mega-caps like AVGO, AMD, and PLTR. Last Saturday’s “Setups Blueprint” (a summarized report highlighting the technical bias for each security) maintained a bullish outlook for the SPX, projecting a weekly move between 7,206 and 7,248 (+0.6% to +1.2%); the final outcome was +0.91%. For the NDX, the blueprint anticipated a +1.2% move to 27,610, while the final weekly move reached +1.5% at 27,710.

In today’s edition, we will study a combination of long term trends and short term potential moves, utilizing weekly and monthly levels to establish targets and validate each technical thesis. Upgrade to the paid plan and unlock all the content.

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Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for SPX, U.S. Indices, Volatility, Breadth, and Crypto.

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps (20+ charts).

• Setups Blueprint: Summary with short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing higher probability setups.

Is the market getting ready for a consolidation? will bears have a chance? Toda’s publication brings 5 specific indicators to monitor and make informed decisions.

Let’s begin.

SPX: Combining Short Term Warnings and Long term Setups

We are approaching my bullish target for 2026. The velocity of this move is unprecedented, and seasonal factors, such as the midterm election cycle, must be considered. The chart highlights:

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The week ending April 24 delivered a technically rich but internally divided market. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 consolidated as anticipated in the previous Weekly Compass, with the SPX filling its gap at $7,051.2 as likely considered. Tech (NDX) surged +2.4% for the week, and the semiconductor sector printed a +9.1% breakout reaching unprecedented overbought conditions that we will study today. The Three Green Soldiers pattern on the SPX and NDX weekly chart mentioned last week is in bullish play, and Bitcoin continues moving north since it was anticipated three weeks ago. The cryptocurrency has gained +13.7% since, and Ethereum +9.9%.

But beneath the surface, a different story has been developing. The stock participation has decreased from 78% to 59% over four sessions while the SPX moved higher. Fewer than 53% of stocks are above their 50-day average. The rally that carried the index was not a broad market recovery. It was a semiconductor event, with INTC, TXN, MU, AMD, AVGO, and SMH doing the heavy lifting with weekly moves above 9% each, while software names (NOW, ADBE, ORCL, PLTR) collapsed or yielded gains respectively. The financial sector leadership (JPM, V, BRK.B) deteriorated. That divergence is the defining tension entering the most important earnings week of 2025: Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta all report.

Will semiconductors consolidate next week? Can the ‘Magnificent Five’ deliver the bullish results the market expects? Will non-tech sectors continue their decline, or can Software stage a recovery?

The indicators to navigate these questions are detailed in this publication. We analyze SMH, NVDA, AVGO, and AMD with specific levels that, if held, would validate a bullish continuation. Additionally, the charts for all the ‘Magnificent Seven’ are always here along with non-tech megacaps, identifying the critical support and resistance levels to watch. Regarding software, a special edition was posted last Wednesday following the sell-off; get access using the link:

Fundamental + technical Special: PLTR, ORCL, NOW, PANW, ADBE, CRM, SAP, CRWD

Another key read for the Magnificent Seven in the A.I. era was posted this month, this is key for the week ahead:

Investing in the AI Era: MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, META, AMZN, TSLA, AVGO, NVDA

Upgrade to the paid plan and unlock all the content with the charts and analysis for the week ahead.

Today’s Agenda

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for U.S. Indices, Volatility, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Magnificent Seven and other Megacaps.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Let’s begin,

Momentum Map: A New and Disparate Order

As anticipated few weeks ago, the red quadrant offered good opportunities for longs, and that was correct, after three weeks a new leadership emerged, but keep an eye on this hidden points to consider:

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Last week we studied the relevance of $6,816, with historical charts that presented how important is the recovery of the 20 weekly average, now that it happened it can be mentioned here for everyone, with the SPX +4.5% above that line.

Receding conflict in the Middle East provided the primary lift for sentiment. Equities rallied after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz completely open following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon. The reopening of this trade route triggered a sharp decline in energy markets. Brent crude futures dropped 8.7% to $90.71 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures slid 10.6% to $84.69. Despite the broad shift into riskier assets, gold remained elevated at approximately $4,823, reflecting sustained interest in traditional safe havens. In crypto, Bitcoin and Ethereum have rallied above 6% this week so far.

Technically speaking, the selloff in oil has reached oversold conditions, and yesterday I posted in the S/R levels edition the chart for XOM, that is currently suggesting a potential spike (spike does not mean all time highs).

Corporate earnings and technology developments also drove significant price action. Oracle gained nearly 30% for the week, boosted by new artificial intelligence agreements, while Goldman Sachs rose 3.13% on Friday following solid first-quarter results. On the negative side, Netflix dropped between 9.7% after issuing a disappointing revenue forecast for the second quarter. The quantum computing sector saw massive volatility, with stocks like D-Wave Quantum and IonQ soaring over 50% after Nvidia launched a new open-source quantum AI model.

Despite of the rally, NFLX proves that every company must prove their ratios otherwise Wall Street will punish a disappointing earnings result. From our Blueprint of trades posted last Saturday, we saw good performance this week, with NVDA, AAPL, QQQ, JPM, IBIT, ETHA, META, and even NFLX surpassing their bullish targets. PLTR, TSLA, and V reversed as expected also printing rallies, while LLY was the only security that went in the unexpected direction but our Central Weekly Level (CWL) used as a reference for stop losses protects capital.

Every setup posted in this weekend’s publication includes price targets, invalidation levels, and a risk-reward ratio. This allows you to make informed decisions based on technical indicators and modeled levels where algorithms typically react, as paid subscribers have experienced for over two years. Unlock the analysis for this week by upgrading your subscription.

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The week’s price action underscores a market recalibrating around two powerful forces: geopolitical relief and AI-driven momentum. With the S&P 500 now at record highs and the Nasdaq on a historic run, the burden of proof shifts to earnings season to validate these elevated levels. Investors should watch whether the energy pullback translates into improved consumer sentiment and whether tech leadership can broaden beyond the usual names. For now, the bulls are firmly in control, but complacency at all-time highs rarely pays.

Securities Analyzed Every Week:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Having a constant set of securities allows you to anticipate rotations and to time better individual names. If you trade some of the securities listed, this publication is for you.

Today’s Agenda

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for the SPX, U.S. Indices, Volatility, Breadth, and Bitcoin.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps (20+ charts).

Let’s begin.

Momentum Map

To our new subscribers: welcome. It is always helpful to recall the cyclical nature of the market. Stocks bounce from oversold conditions (improving), rally into strength (leading), hit overbought extremes, and eventually pullback (weakening) to become laggards. I integrated this rotation feature into the Weekly Compass a year ago, and it has been remarkably consistent.

We saw this cycle play out with the euphoria in NFLX after the 2025 crash, followed by PLTR, MSFT, and Bitcoin, all of which declined sharply in Q4 2025. Meanwhile, names like GOOG, LLY, SLV, and GLD looked unstoppable in rally mode until they fell sharply. As we stand today, the cycle will inevitably continue its course.

All the securities mentioned are analyzed in our Momentum Map, allowing you to identify opportunities and threats in a single glance. Combined with the individual charts included here, you can easily assess whether a reversal is imminent or if the current momentum still has room to run.

Using this tool the bullish reversal thesis for stocks like META, COST, BITCOIN, and even NFLX were anticipated recently. Just last weekend this approach was key to consider the bounces for PLTR, V, and TSLA.

The updated momentum map, followed by the SPX analysis, the setups blueprint for next week, and the individual charts continue here:

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U.S. equities experienced another weekly rally. Major indices surged on Wednesday following news of a tentative two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, which also facilitated a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite climbed 3.5% and 4.4% respectively during the week. Last week I highlighted the major relevance of $6,503 for the SPX, and despite intra-day volatility, the index managed to close abobe that level on Monday and Tuesday, and considering the weekly setup preceding price action, the bullish resolution was just consistent with the technical conditions.

With that level conquered, the high probability setups performed very well. Premium subscribers received last week the bullish targets and invalidation levels for: SPY, QQQ, AMD, NFLX, NVDA, AAPL, COST, META, AGVO, and MSFT; also with the bearish setup for XOM. All of them reached their targets, even Microsoft that reversed its move during the week. The success rate was 100%. Unlock the setups for next week, including the technical charts and the market overview, with the SPX as the core of this publication.

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Premium subscribers have access to special analyses where I noted that a correction at this stage of the market was normal. I also highlighted why a transition into a bear market at this juncture would be highly unusual. However, considering many questions I received during the end of march, I outlined the worst case scenario for a decline. I always listen to your questions, and when I notice a recurring pattern, I address it through dedicated reports. Those special publications are a must-read for both traders and long-term investors:

Access » Bear Market Bottoms in One Predictable Pattern

When you subscribe to the paid plan, you get special analysis that give north to our trading setups, the complete Market Intelligence Library is here, including educational content:

Access » Market Intelligence Library and eBooks

In the crypto space, Bitcoin surged past our the key $69,7K level early in the week as risk appetite recovered, if you’re a Crypto enthusiast, today’s publication presents an essential setup.

Macro News to Consider

Economic indicators painted a mixed picture. The March Consumer Price Index met expectations, rising 0.9% for the month and 3.3% year over year. This headline figure was heavily influenced by a 10.9% monthly jump in energy prices, the sharpest increase since September 2005. Gasoline prices soared 21.2% for the month, pushing the national average above $4 a gallon. On a more constructive note, core CPI (which excludes volatile food and energy costs) came in slightly cooler than anticipated, rising 0.2% for the month and 2.6% annually. The labor market remained surprisingly firm, with March non-farm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, far exceeding the forecast of 65,000. Last but not least, the University of Michigan’s sentiment index dropped 11% in April to 47.6. One-year inflation expectations also jumped to 4.8% from 3.8% in March.

Today’s Agenda

• Technical Signals Vs Sentiment: Key level to watch next week for the SPX, completing the 28 years study posted last night with the levels.

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the opportunities in a single chart.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for the SPX, U.S. Indices, Key ETFs, Magnificent 7, Crypto, and Megacaps.

• Market Context: Analyses for SPX, VIX, NDX, DJI, Bitcoin, and Breadth

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps (20+ charts).

Let’s continue, upgrade your subscription to the paid plan and unlock the content.

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Technical Signals vs. Sentiment

Considering the questions I received at the end of March, I’m keeping several bullish signals on the SPX, NDX, IWM, DJI, and Bitcoin charts that I posted when anticipating the bounce. It is essential to analyze technical events objectively, removing emotion from the equation, when you’re a real experienced trader you don’t panic, you manage risk and trust the process. My goal is to help you become a better investor and trader, markets will always face corrections, and you must remember which signals preceded the bounce in previous occurrences.

SPX: The Key Level to Watch Next Week

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Despite the extreme bearish sentiment last weekend, I anticipated that a bounce was coming, citing a high likelihood of a relief rally, “as the SPY, QQQ, IWM, and DIA were showing potential for a trend reversal.” Pessimism was as high as it was in April 2025, but staying focused on technical indicators is essential, regardless of the noise.

Markets closed the first week of April with their first weekly gain since the Iran conflict began. The S&P 500 rose 3.4%, the Dow added nearly 3%, IWM rallied 3.4%, and the Nasdaq 100 surged 4%. In addition, other bullish setups were anticipated by this publication last Saturday: AMZN (bouncing 5.2% during the week) and NFLX (5.6%). A consolidation for XOM was expected, and on Monday, I highlighted the bearish reversal setup that initiated the -6% selloff seen this week.

For a forecast built on prudence in the current market conditions, this represents a 100% win rate. I am posting daily levels to help paid subscribers navigate this volatile market. Subscribe now and unlock the analysis for next week.

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The Week Ahead: The question for the week ahead is not whether volatility will continue, it likely will. The real question is how oil prices, the Dollar Index, and the VIX will behave. The geopolitical escalations we saw late this week carry enough weight to significantly dampen sentiment, and every rally must recover the Central Weekly and Monthly Levels posted here to prove its sustainability.

Bearish Sentiment is High: Over the last 30 years, we have seen this level of bearish sentiment only a few times, as highlighted in the chart below using the current 55% bearish sentiment leve as a reference. Given this week’s bounce from those extreme conditions, we must now monitor if this move will last two or three weeks (as typically seen even during bear market rallies) or if it will be short-lived, similar to 2025 when the market saw only a one-week relief before resuming the Tariff Crash. The full analysis is below.

Essential Tools to Navigate this Market: During this period, while many celebrated Holy Week and Easter, I released two essential publications. The first presents the single metric that has timed bear market bottoms for decades. The charts speak for themselves; there is no gut feeling involved. This is data every investor and trader must be aware of.

• Bear Market Bottoms in One Predictable Pattern

The second publication provides the Support and Resistance Levels for next week and the month of April. These levels have proven to be an accurate “bullish above / bearish below” threshold. The indices must consolidate above them next week before we can consider any further bullish continuation.

• Gap Filled - Assessing Resistance or Upside

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Today’s Agenda

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for U.S. Indices, Volatility, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analyses for Metals and Mega Caps.

Upgrade your subscription to the paid plan; unlock the full content with charts, price levels and most probable setups for next week.

Momentum Map

Few times the momentum map anticipates this many opportunities in the market:

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History shows that even during the most iconic collapses, such as the Dot-com bubble, the Great Financial Crisis, or the bear markets of 2018 and 2022, the decline was a process. These periods lasted for weeks or months and were characterized by sharp, intermediate relief rallies that occurred before the selling resumed. Even the 2025 Tariff Crash followed this pattern, with historic single-day surges providing temporary breathing room amidst the volatility.

In recent history, only the COVID-19 crash of 2020 moved with such velocity that it bottomed in roughly four weeks before a V-shaped recovery began. Aside from that unique event (which was more severe than the current energy-driven shock) major selloffs typically involve a cycle of reaching deep oversold conditions, followed by significant relief bounces as the stock market breathes.

As posted yesterday, the support and resistance levels frame a -1.6% to +3% move for next week in the SPX, considering the first layers around the central weekly price level.

The VIX has closed above 25 during four consecutive weeks in a row, that condition favors bears, but as we have seen during the same weeks, volatility also brings quick rallies that may squeeze short positions if risk is not managed well. For that reason I’m posting in the paid subscribers chat daily price levels for the SPX, the main ETFs like SPY, QQQ, SMH, VXX, and DIA, along with all the magnificent seven, metals, and other major stocks. If you trade using levels, those daily insights are for you.

High Probability Trades

Last week, the setups blueprint anticipated with prudence bullish reversals for PLTR, JPM, NFLX, AAPL, SMH, and AMD. All of them happened reaching and exceeding their bullish targets; and as the VIX above 25 suggests, volatility followed with a selloff. The bearish setups highlighted last week for META and AMZN also exceeded their targets. The only security that didn’t move as expected was XOM, which despite of overbought conditions, it continued in rally mode. 8 out of 9 setups reached their targets.

Having specific support and resistances for the week help anticipating potential reversal areas. Upgrade your subscription to paid and get the tools for next week.

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My last two publications have real life examples of managing stop losses, which is essential for survival in this market.

• Trailing stops for longs - Educational Content

• Trailing stops for shorts - S/R Levels for Next Week

Today’s analysis brings a zoom in to previous bottoms for the S&P 500 / SPX.

This publication constantly studies the following securities in order to monitor rotations with the momentum map and individual analyses. If you trade some of them, this publication is for you:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Megacaps: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Subscribe and unlock their setups for next week in a single dashboard that highlights the most probable moves for next week.

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Today’s Agenda:

• Special Study of Bottoms for the SPX: Major bottom? or just relief rally?

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for U.S. Indices, Volatility, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

• Deep Dive: Visual individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps.

Let’s begin,

SPX: What the Last Four Bear Markets Suggest is Coming Next

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The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75%. Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged inflation progress but cited Middle East developments as a source of deep economic uncertainty. Rate cut expectations for 2026 have been largely priced out. The higher for longer environment weighed on utilities and technology. Micron Technology fell nearly 4% after third-quarter guidance missed expectations. In crypto, Bitcoin briefly decoupled from equities to reclaim $74,000 on Monday before institutional selling renewed pressure through the week.

If you missed the latest special about oil and stagflation, including a long term study of major tops in the stock market, make sure to read it, this is essential for long term investors and traders.

• FED Trapped: Oil, Inflation, and Jobs

This week saw yet another faded rally. We are hitting oversold levels that look promising on Friday and Monday, yet every attempt to bounce is sold off. Unlike previous weeks, this time the bears showed real conviction. The defensive sectors continue reversing.

You may recall my special reports on sector rotation (Wednesday is the day for Market Intelligence), where I highlighted that defensives were overbought while growth was oversold. By the time the “Great Rotation” became a popular media topic, the move was already largely complete. Over the last several weeks, Industrials, Staples, Materials, and Healthcare have fallen sharply, with Utilities joining the defensive sell-off this past week. While the week was undoubtedly bearish, Technology and Financials showed relative strength, following only Energy in performance.

It is worth noting that the QQQ has reached extreme oversold levels. Based on Money Flow, the index is currently below its 2025 bottom, the 2023 correction, and even the lows of the 2022 bear market. The current reading coincides with the rallies that began in March and June of 2022. While that was a bear market year, we must navigate the immediate price action, and the current scenario suggests a bottom is near.

Today we will focus the analysis on the technical indicators that are flagging oversold conditions, the levels that have been breached recently, like the 200 daily moving average in the case of the S&P500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100. weekly timeframes that removes the noise of the daily volatility, and essential support and resistance levels to watch, including the central weekly level for all the securities studied. Any spike must recover that level, that lately has essentially acted as a resistance during the last weeks.

The Geopolitical “Time vs. Price” Factor: The reason I emphasize that the bottom is near in terms of Time rather than Price is the unpredictability of war. Unlike economic data or earnings reports, geopolitical events do not follow a schedule.

Since 1939, the S&P 500 has bottomed approximately 15 trading days after a major geopolitical event. That statistic, combined with current extreme oversold conditions, is the focus of today’s study, including the key price levels each security must recover to validate a sustainable bounce if it happens, so you don’t jump in buying a falling knife. Our Central Weekly Level (CWL) remains the definitive momentum validator; for over two years, it has proven to our subscribers that price action is bullish above and bearish below.

The distance to this central weekly level, or the “spike” required next week, varies by security. For instance, META must jump 2% to validate any recovery; otherwise, we likely face another “vanishing” move. SLV has crashed and now needs a bounce of more than 6.4% to prevent the sell-off from resuming. Conversely, AAPL is just 0.7% away from flipping its key level to support, which would complete a 2.2% move, while JPM is only $1 away from the level needed to spark a bullish reversal.

The combination of technical indicators and modeled support and resistance levels helps us navigate this market. By staying aware of volatility, index momentum, and sector variables, we provide the roadmap necessary for the week ahead. Unlock the full analysis below.

The securities constantly analyzed by this publication are the following ones:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Megacaps: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

If you invest or trade one or more of these securities, this publication is for you.

Today’s Agenda

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart, identifying momentum and potential bullish or bearish reversals.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for U.S. Indices, Volatility, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps (20+ charts).

Let’s begin.

Momentum Map: Technicals Always Pass their Bill

Over the past months, we have observed a consistent rotation across securities, regardless of the prevailing bullish or bearish momentum. This was clearly evidenced when AAPL and TSLA transitioned through the map, moving from Laggard to Improving, and finally to Leading, yielding double-digit rallies consistent with our technical readings. We saw the same cycle play out with LLY, GOOG, and much earlier with PLTR, NVDA, and NFLX, as they followed the circular “clock” rotation before eventually falling into Weakening and Laggard status.

Currently, we are seeing this shift in SLV. This silver-tracking ETF has finally exited the Leading quadrant. This observation is primarily educational, highlighting the critical importance of following technical signals and the Central Levels (Weekly or Monthly depending on your profile) to stay ahead of the map’s rotational shifts.

Let’s talk about the current opportunities in the map:

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It’s been exactly two years since the launch of SmartReversals. On this very day back in 2024, I posted the first-ever Weekly Compass. I want to say a massive thank you to all of you for your support, I truly appreciate every one of you. My commitment remains the same: to deliver honest, neutral analysis focused strictly on facts and technical indicators.

When SmartReversals.com first launched, it started with two weekly publications: the Weekly Compass and our Wednesday educational content. Shortly after, I began posting the Support and Resistance Levels on Fridays, the same framework I model to measure potential upcoming moves and validate momentum when the Central Weekly Level is either breached or consolidated.

In 2025, the customized Support and Resistance levels where paid subscribers could suggest their own securities for modeling were introduced. It was so well-received that it became a permanent weekly deliverable, allowing our members to see the model applied to their specific interests.

The Weekly Compass has also evolved. Since 2025, we’ve added the Momentum Map, and more recently, our High-Probability Setups, a solid approach where all our tools converge into actionable ideas.

Everything I develop and share here is a result of what I find useful for my own trading performance. Your appreciation has been essential behind this evolution. With the service growing, I felt it was the right time to share a comprehensive User Guide video, so everyone knows exactly how to get the most out of the information on SmartReversals.com.

Now that you’ve seen how the Compass works, you’re ready to dive into the latest analyses. Pay close attention to the recent Market Intelligence post on Oil and the Weekly Compass from this past Saturday, which correctly anticipated the price spike alongside a potential lack of conviction.

Be sure to identify the key price levels that must hold as support tomorrow to remain in “bounce mode.” As shown in the video, a setup is truly validated only once a specific level is reached.

• Latest Special Study: Oil - History’s Blueprint for Extreme Moves

• Latest Weekly Compass: Bulls and Bears Exhausted

Upgrade your subscription here to the paid plan and unlock all the premium content:

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Thank you very much.

God bless.

If you are a new trader feeling frustrated by the inability to find a clear trend as a bull or a bear, do not worry. This environment is uncommon. Usually, pullbacks are marked by solid bearish conviction candles that facilitate shorting, or bullish momentum markets that provide clear long entries. For several months, we managed to navigate this by focusing on individual names, but with the VIX around 30, the entire market is now presenting the same fragmented situation.

The Bearish Move has Lacked Conviction

See the last part of the 2022 bear market, the -10% correction in 2023, and the healthy pullback in 2024, the candles have a solid red body that show a clear move after the opening.

When analyzing the S&P 500 since the start of the year 2026, you will notice candles with long upper and lower wicks, reflecting massive intra-week volatility. Price action frequently reaches bullish targets, breaches essential validation levels, and touches bearish targets all within a single week. Recently, we are seeing “inverse U-turns” rallies at the start of the week that inevitably fade. While the resolution was neutral a few weeks ago, it has recently shifted toward a bearish outcome, with the index now declining 5% from its all-time highs.

In the NASDAQ 100, the choppiness is even more pronounced. Instead of solid red or green candles, we see tiny “bodies” with long wicks to both sides. This convictionless price action exhausts both bulls and bears.

My publication from Wednesday, which I highly recommend reading, sets a clear macro and technical context regarding the geopolitical conflict with Iran and offers the references needed to navigate this environment. Starting today, I am adding a new combination of indicators to the Weekly Compass specifically designed to gauge the likelihood of 'choppy' regimes. These metrics will serve as a filter to determine whether to remain sidelined or adjust position sizing to navigate both bullish and bearish setups effectively. Access here:

• Oil as the New VIX: History’s Blueprint for Extreme Moves

This publication consistently analyzes the following securities to provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions. Maintaining a consistent watchlist is key to improving performance; it allows you to refine the timing of your entries and effectively rotate capital as new opportunities emerge.

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

There are securities forming promising setups, unlock the complete analysis including technical charts, price levels to assess the strength of any potential spike in price next week, the potential levels where it can resume the selloff if the pattern continues, and how the price structure has been affected for the SPX and NDX.

Subscribe now to the paid plan, and unlock all the premium content.

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Today’s Agenda

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart, Strategy for the week ahead.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for U.S. Indices, Volatility, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Mega Caps and Metals (20+ charts).

Momentum Map - Opportunities Arising

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Geopolitical events present a unique pricing challenge for financial markets. Unlike earnings reports or Federal Reserve decisions that arrive on a known schedule, geopolitical shocks are by nature unpredictable, rare, and of uncertain duration. This combination of characteristics creates a specific market dynamic: sharp initial reaction driven by uncertainty, followed by rapid reassessment as facts emerge.

There are three primary channels through which geopolitical shocks affect asset prices: 1) disruption to cross-border trade and investment, 2) contagion through financial linkages, and 3) elevated macroeconomic uncertainty. Of these three, uncertainty has the longest-lasting effect because it cannot be resolved until the event either escalates or de-escalates.

Markets do not price the event itself. They price the probability that the event will permanently alter real economic conditions. Most geopolitical events do not meet that threshold, which is why the recovery pattern is consistent.

The 1973 Yom Kippur War and the Oil Embargo that followed represent the most instructive case for worst case scenarios. The two events together, which occurred within 10 days of each other, produced a 43.2% S&P 500 decline over the following 12 months. This was not simply a geopolitical shock but a structural economic event: oil prices quadrupled, the U.S. entered a deep recession, and the inflation that followed shaped Federal Reserve policy for an entire decade.

On the other side, the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack is the most recently completed data point and one of the most instructive. Despite extreme initial uncertainty, the S&P 500 returned 33.5% over the following 12 months. The event did not disrupt global oil supply, did not spread to major economies in a way that affected trade, and did not alter the Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory. All three variables came up negative. The market followed the historical pattern.

The Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 is the most striking example of this dynamic. The world came as close to nuclear war as it has in the modern era, yet the S&P 500 gained 5.1% in the following month and 27.6% over 12 months.

Markets priced the resolution, not the peak fear.

That said, oil is a key element to watch today, oil price shocks lasting fewer than 90 days tend to produce recoverable market impacts. Shocks persisting beyond one quarter begin altering corporate earnings forecasts, inflation expectations, and monetary policy, which is when short-term dips become multi-year bear markets.

Technicals apply to all asset classes, and Oil is currently overbought. In comparison to 2022, which also followed a major geopolitical event, those overbought conditions dissipated after two months. Today, Oil is more overbought than it was in 2022; consequently, a consolidation is likely, accompanied by extreme volatility that could also shake the stock market.

Volatility and High Probability Setups

From the setups posted last Saturday in this publication, the following happened:

• 🎯AAPL reached its extended bearish target of 254 for a -3.7% move

• 🎯SMH reached its extended bearish target of $386 for a -5% move

• 🎯GLD reached its bullish target of $497.8 for a +2.9% move.

• 🎯IWM reached its bearish target of $253.8 for a -3% move

• 🎯V reached its bullish target of $326.1 for a +1.9% move

• 🎯PLTR exceeded its extended target of $145 for more than a +6.1% move

• ✅QQQ reached its bearish target of $598.7 for a -1.4% move with choppy action

• ✅NFLX was bullish, and as anticipated last Saturday, its target is multi-week

• ❌LLY was the only setup invalidated that moved in the opposite direction.

🏅🏅🏅PLTR, SMH, and IWM actually extended the moves to the third bearish level, so the gains were even bigger.

That’s a 8/9 accuracy rate for a very volatile week. This is achievable using disciplined technical analysis and modeled support and resistance levels.

Subscribe and unlock this institutional grade approach every week. Our core watchlist includes megacaps and securities with high daily volume:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

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Today’s Agenda

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for U.S. Indices, Volatility, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps (20+ charts).

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Momentum Map - Great Rotation Vanishing as Expected

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The market has validated this move this week: Staples are down -3.2%, Materials -2.8%, and Healthcare -2.0%. Meanwhile, Technology is in the green +0.8%, with Discretionary and Financials flattening out despite of the recent selloff. These conditions confirm the “stretched rotation” thesis based on technicals presented last week, and today we will use specific technical levels to determine if this trend has further room to run.

Precision Under High Volatility

I mentioned on Saturday: , and we did see that type of price action,

Volatility is a key theme today. We will analyze the likelihood of a sustained bullish continuation versus a relief rally that may quickly vanish. Recent moves demonstrate why price action is primary: the high volatility I highlighted last week, specifically the likelihood of rapid moves, played out across the high-probability setups.

I mentioned on Saturday: “Be mindful of potential reversals if initial or extended targets are reached rapidly”.

• QQQ: Opened at $598.7, bounced, and printed indecision at the CWL on Monday before reversing to our bearish extended target of $590.0.

• SMH & IWM: Both high-probability bearish setups reached their targets with precision. SMH hit $386.0 for a -5% move, also the extended target of $253.8 for IWM was hit for a -2.9% move.

• AAPL: Reached $259.3, finishing just one dollar shy but moving -1.8% as expected.

Perhaps most impressive was PLTR. Despite my personal doubts about reaching the +6.1% extended target of $145.6 I marked in the setups blueprint since the model suggested it, and the model proved that markets don’t have emotions when the setup is strong; PLTR is currently trading at $153.0. Similarly, Visa (V) hit its bullish target of $326.1 before reversing today.

With the VIX remaining above 20 and the SPX still below its Central Monthly Level, discipline is mandatory. Despite the volatility, six of our high-probability setups reached their targets and the week has not ended. Only LLY and GLD were invalidated, with GLD moving north as expected on Monday but peaked at $492.0 before retracing, just short of our $497.8 goal.

Since the price was overextended on Tuesday, and dip buyers jumped in in the morning, yesterday afternoon, I sent an exclusive alert to paid subscribers noting that risk-reward had shifted in favor of the bulls and added specific price levels. This follows a similar catch last week when we identified bearish exhaustion on Monday. It was posted in the paid subscribers’ chat.

The critical questions for today: What is the current setup signaling? Is this rally sustainable, or is the rotation set to continue reversing back toward Growth?

In today’s publication, we cover:

• Rotation Status: Tracking the shift from Defensives to Growth.

• Technical Deep Dive: A close-up on SPX, QQQ, and SMH.

• Volatility & Bitcoin: Assessing risk and ‘risk-on’ sentiment.

• High-Probability Setups: An audit of our current targets.

Access today’s institutional-grade analysis below to stay ahead of this volatile market.

Let’s begin.

Rotation Status:

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Today, we are witnessing a distinct asymmetric condition in the market. Sectors outside of Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials are rallying, while Tech, Megacaps, and Bitcoin (BTC used as a “risk-on” thermometer), have already reached oversold conditions. This is atypical, as major market tops are usually characterized by synchronized overbought conditions across all sectors.

In today’s publication you will read the different signals to watch ahead of a week with renewed reasons to be volatile, this time related to geopolitical situations with Iran.

Since November, then the SPX has gone nowhere, I have highlighted the power of individual names, also enriching the variety of our watchlist including names like LLY, XOM, JPM, WMT to our weekly analysis. Today V as another megacap is added to balance the view and opportunities.

High Probability Setups

Last week, our setups hit their weekly targets, including:

• SMH: $429.2 (+3.3%)

• GLD: $484.0 (+3.3%)

• QQQ: $615.0 (+1.0%)

• SPX: $694.4 (+0.7%) — I mentioned on Wednesday afternoon that closing the position was valid in case of a bull trap following NVDA earnings.

When trading high-probability setups with specific targets and invalidation levels, performance in a choppy market significantly improves.

Why use invalidation levels? The first rule of trading is capital preservation. Last week, I filtered 30 setups down to the few with the most technical merit and tightest stops as mentioned last Saturday. Even with a correct directional bias in IWM, the target wasn’t reached before the stop-loss level was triggered. The same occurred for XOM and PLTR.

That puts us at 4 out of 7 successful setups in a difficult environment. After four months of weekly posting, our cumulative success rate remains at a robust 75%.

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My two latest deep dives on the "Great Rotation" are essential reading for a comprehensive view of the current landscape:

Today’s Agenda

• Geopolitics: Usual Implications for the market

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Setups Blueprint: High-probability trades and full universe analysis (track your favorites or use the ones I highlight).

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for U.S. Indices, Volatility, and Bitcoin.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps.

→ Today’s edition is special considering the special chapter about Geopolitics before the high probability setups for next week.

Let’s begin.

Geopolitics: The Catalyst for the S&P 493 to Decline Alongside Tech?

The current setup is best illustrated by the contrast between the “Generals” and the rest of the market:

• The MAGS ETF (Magnificent Seven) recently bounced fromits 200-day and 40-week moving averages.

• The XMAG ETF (S&P 493) continues to display bullish daily and weekly structures, highlighting the ongoing “Great Rotation”.

The current technical setup suggests a market that is already “on edge,” with SPX and NDX trading below their Central Monthly Levels and the VIX hovering around 20. Geopolitical escalation involving Iran would likely act as the catalyst that transitions this “choppy” consolidation into a more synchronized structural decline.

Historical Implications: Iran and Oil Conflicts

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We also held a bearish outlook for Apple (AAPL), which serves as an important case study analyzed in the charts below. While Apple moved lower in Tuesday’s pre-market, reaching our -3.3% target proved difficult in the overextended bearish environment. Similarly, while we expected a bullish move in Costco COST at the start of the week, it partially materialized. The target was $1,038, but the price topped at $1,028 on Tuesday. While the direction was accurate for the early week, it fell short of our ultimate target; therefore, I am classifying that setup as “vanished” in our track record.

As mentioned last Saturday in this publication:

While Friday showed indecisive price action that could hint at a potential bottom, the price is far from oversold enough to match previous patterns that triggered bounces. A rapid flush on Tuesday could provide stronger bottoming signals

The bounce was likely and we will study the same chart from last weekend keeping the highlighted candles that in the past were followed by a flush the first day of the week, just to bounce and closing in the green.

As I highlighted to premium subscribers, holidays often result in blurry visibility, where setups may fail to complete or reverse entirely during Sunday and Monday futures sessions.

Crypto Continues Weak

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) suggested a bullish reversal on Saturday, those setups were ultimately invalidated. In trading, discipline is key: the trigger for Bitcoin was never activated because the $70,8K level was not breached. Since the price was rejected once again, there was no material damage to our setups in IBIT and even ETHA.

Opportunities Brewing

Looking ahead, the same overextension that prevented some bearish targets from being reached is now creating potential reversal opportunities. Using our indicators and modeled Central Weekly Level (CWL), several securities now show a bullish bias for the coming week. We will study the specific CWLs and targets for names attempting to reverse, including Palantir (PLTR), Broadcom (AVGO), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Nvida (NVDA) and even Crypto, though the two latter requires extreme caution given the earnings report and the weakness in Price action respectively.

From these securities and others within our fixed universe of megacaps and high-volume names, we have identified the highest probability setups for the week ahead. Each includes a specific risk-management level. Let’s dive into the game plan and the key indicators to watch.

Our Core Watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX, XOM

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Setting the price targets and invalidation levels are based on technical indicators and modeled Support and Resistance levels for each week and month.

These educational publications present how to manage the high probability setups, upgrade your subscription and unlock this valuable guides:

• Maximizing Returns with High-Probability Setups

• Anatomy of a Winning Trade

• Turning Technical Tools into Results (Using SmartReversals Publications)

Join the paid plan today to trade with institutional-grade precision.

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Before the Weekly Plan: Sectors and Rotation

The market is currently undergoing a "Great Rotation," a structural shift where capital is exiting former high-flying technology and software sectors to seek refuge in defensive and "old economy" areas like Energy, Utilities, and Consumer Staples. This bifurcation has created a split market where the S&P 500 remains near all-time highs only because rallying defensive sectors are offsetting sharp declines in tech heavyweights, which now act as an anchor on the index. This rare divergence, where Consumer Staples hit new highs while Technology hits new lows, has only been observed once before, in late 2000, signaling a potential shift in long-term market leadership.

Be careful chasing, week by week the rotation headline has become more popular, and if you have been in the investment arena for a couple of years you know what happens when an asset becomes more popular (in this case Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Utilities, and other defensive sectors).

We have nailed bullish moves with LLY, WMT, BRK.B, and JPM, but that happened several weeks ago when their setups were brewing a bounce, and the use of specific targets was helpful to lock gains ahead of choppy price action.

That said, last week I anticipated a bearish reversal for XOM, LLY is looking weak, and this Wednesday I will post a second edition about sectors, because many of the defensive ones are overbought. Be careful chasing the herd, anticipate the moves here.

On the other side, Software is extremely oversold, and some giants are suggesting some bearish exhaustion, let’s study the individual setups so you are equipped with indicators and levels to set targets or managing risk.

Potential Bounce in the Market?

Probably, oversold sectors are bouncing (XLK and XLY), while others continue in the green (not Staples) but are overbought.

By mastering a constant universe of ‘Megacaps’ and Indices, you can identify capital rotation and time your entries with precision, rather than chasing random tickers.

Today’s Agenda

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Setups Blueprint: High-probability trades and full universe analysis (track your favorites or use the ones I highlight).

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for U.S. Indices, Volatility, and Bitcoin.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps.

Let’s continue, my two eBooks on Essential, and Advanced Technical Indicators are below to download.

Momentum Map - Some Tech Names are Showing Signs of a Bounce - Weekly Plan

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