Every week I post the combination of technical analysis and modeled support and resistance levels for the week ahead, this approach allows us to find the best opportunities in the market by anticipating direction and then destination.

Technical indicators provide direction, while the modeled support and resistance levels provide destination. I use a third tool, the Momentum Map, which helps us understand which stage of the cycle each ticker is in. Those three elements form the foundation of the Setups Blueprint, where all the stocks, indices, and ETFs from our watchlist are mapped, each with their market condition (bullish or bearish), price targets, invalidation levels, and risk-to-reward ratio. In that blueprint, I highlight my preferred setups based on their probabilities of success.

Last week was choppy for the market as anticipated. I highlighted declines in the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones as high-probability setups, using SPY, SPX, and DIA as the instruments to set the targets. DIA reached the bearish target of 522 for a -2.2% move 🎯, and SPY hit 761.8 for a -1.1% move 🎯. They actually extended their losses, but I mark the targets officially reached.

Being bearish on the indices doesn’t mean that the entire market will fall; successful traders know that very well. While we were bearish on the indices, individual setups for AMD, AVGO, META, SPCX, and VXX were printing reliable bullish signals. They reached the targets I anticipated for the week in this publication as follows: AMD easily made it to the $504 target for a +5.5% move 🎯; AVGO to $373 for a +4.2% move 🎯; META to $660 for a +7.1% move 🎯; SPCX to $154.1 for a +4.2% move 🎯; and VXX to $18.5 for a +4.4% move 🎯.

With that said, my Setups Blueprint is neutral, featuring both bullish and bearish setups. There are also several other advantages to this specific approach:

All the tickers are analyzed every week. So, whether you trade the SPX and Futures only, DIA, and QQQ only, NVDA and TSLA only, or AMD and PLTR, they are permanently analyzed so you can focus on the ones of your preference from this watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

The next advantage of this approach is capital protection and risk-to-reward analysis. Every setup has an invalidation level; if that level is lost, momentum could be flipping from bullish to bearish, or vice-versa. This week, the capital protection references for XOM, GLD, and WMT kept risk limited to -0.7% average for three tickers while gains averaged +4.1% for seven tickers.

Last but not least, I post daily market updates. This week was dedicated to providing guidance on how to use this information, and these publications are a must-read to get the key learnings and guidelines:

Unlock this objective approach by upgrading to the paid plan. Subscribers also get access to educational content and Market Intelligence analyses, including three core publications every week (Friday, Saturday, and Wednesday) covering indices, megacaps, ETFs, and daily updates tracking the watchlist with daily levels for the SPX and ES=F. Everything is available at smartreversals.com. Zero gut feeling. Everything is specific.

Paid subscribers can download my two ebooks on technical analysis from the Market Intelligence Collection, and can submit their individual stocks in the chat every weekend for a customized analysis of weekly support and resistance levels.

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Next week, I’ll navigate the new setups with you using my daily notes, which also include key daily levels for the SPX and ES=F. This is likely to be a volatile week. The Fed will decide whether there will be a rate hike or not, and most importantly, the market will pay serious attention to the words of the Fed Chair.

This is very similar to an earnings call. The Earnings Per Share and revenue beat are important, but the forward guidance provided by the CEO is what truly drives the stock, which is why a company may sell off even after beating earnings if guidance falls short. The same dynamic applies this Wednesday. A hawkish speech will be more bearish than an eventual rate hike itself, which, by the way, currently carries official rate hike odds of 86%.

As of today, the overall market has been weak, though semiconductors, select technology names, and energy managed to stay green during the last five trading days.

On the other hand, a significant number of Hindenburg Omen bearish signals have been triggered over the past few weeks (not one, not two, but nine) adding significant pressure to current price action. We will study what this signal is and which price action elements synchronize with it.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Bitcoin.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

• Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Let’s begin.

SPX: Hindenburg Omen Cluster - Correction Imminent?

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I began investing and trading with real dedication and discipline in 2016. That is already 10 years ago, when I started buying stocks the way many people do: reading the news, trying to build a bullish case with fundamentals, and listening to expert opinions. I always liked candlesticks as a visual representation of price action, and back then, I studied several books on the subject. Because no single technical indicator works in isolation, I learned about oscillators (Stochastic, RSI), Bollinger Bands, moving averages, and measuring my performance against the SPX. Back then, I focused heavily on the FAANGs (if you remember that acronym, congratulations; staying in this arena this long puts you far above the average investor or trader: Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google).

The year 2017 looks easy on a long-term chart, but back then, the rapid swings whenever Trump tweeted or spoke were hard to manage, the market was getting used to it. The conventional approach of candlesticks and oscillators helped me navigate entries and exits when the day closed, but not the sudden intraday swings triggered by a tweet about “Rocket Man” (when North Korea was launching missile tests over Japan), or sudden statements about job creation and bullish news that sparked rapid rallies. That was when I started analyzing support and resistance levels to pinpoint where price could bounce or reverse, but most importantly, where I needed to protect capital or gains during an unexpected swing.

I learned the hard way that algorithms are programmed to hunt stop losses. I used to place stop losses for long positions directly at key levels rather than below them, only to watch them get triggered right before price bounced back. I also learned the importance of trailing stop losses upward. When price reached resistance, it could reverse rapidly, as it is happening today (happened with TSLA this week once the gap we were targeting was filled) and human nature tempts you to wait for a bounce or wanting more. Or, once you hit a psychological target in profit or account balance, you resist exiting below that peak. That hesitation usually ends up being an expensive mistake when you finally capitulate and sell too late. It is human, it has happened to all of us.

Because of this, I began working with structured scenarios. Using predefined levels, I mapped out exactly how my capital, gains, and losses would look if a stock or ETF moved toward specific price targets. It left me far better prepared psychologically. That is also why I post the Support and Resistance Levels every Friday for the week ahead, along with the monthly levels and percentage variances, so the impact on any position can be calculated in advance considering each person’s capital. The ones for next week and September are here for the SPX, NDX, futures, key ETFs like SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM, megacaps like NVDA, AAPL, AMZN, PLTR, AMD, metals, and crypto ETFs.

Returning to the timeline, 2017 ended well, but 2018 arrived with a sharp selloff in February. The Dow Jones dropped 7% in two days as the 10-year Treasury yield spiked to a four-year high. That was a swift flush for late buyers chasing the 2017 rally; conditions were overbought, and the macro backdrop triggered the reset.

Price eventually recovered. The uptrend resumed in April, new all-time highs arrived by August, and September bypassed the typical volatility seen in midterm election years. Everything seemed calm until Tariff War 1.0 escalated. Meanwhile, the rate hikes that started in March continued, despite heavy political pressure on Jay Powell. By year-end, the federal funds rate had climbed from 1.25%–1.50% up to 2.25%–2.50%. That tightening cycle, combined with a government shutdown, set the stage for a late-year bear market with a -20% correction in the SPX.

Navigating my first official bear market taught me how psychological denial blinds traders when technicals are clearly overbought. I also learned the significance of unfilled price gaps at all time highs: the July 9, 2018 gap on the SPX at 2,764 finally filled after a clean reversal on September 21, when the daily candle breached the upper Bollinger Band alongside a clear bearish RSI divergence.

Like 2018, midterm election cycles often bring rate shifts and evolving central bank dynamics. The parallels to our current market setup in 2026 are striking, especially when looking at the technical conditions we have been tracking.

Charts do not repeat exactly the same, but technical patterns do, choppy price action is here to stay, the SPX is near all time highs, rapid reversals are happening when the bullish targets are reached.

With that said, staying disciplined with the process, analyzing technical conditions, adhering to modeled levels, monitoring the 59% probability of a September rate hike, and staying alert to broader breadth deterioration will all be essential to navigating the days ahead.

Below is the 5 day change in the S&P 500. The most notable bullish moves came from semiconductors, while four of the “Magnificent Seven” fell or closed flat (MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, AAPL). Several stocks posting gains are either recovering from oversold conditions (such as META, WMT, and ORCL) or bouncing after weeks of steady declines (like MU, INTC, and AMD).

Is everything bearish? No. Disciplined technical analysis and an active watchlist consistently provide opportunities even in choppy markets.

Last week, the anticipated setups for WMT🎯, SPCX🎯, SMH🎯, AAPL🎯, IWM🎯, NFLX🎯, and SPX🎯 averaged a weekly gain of 3% each. Only two setups moved differently than expected, but by using stop-loss references, our support and resistance levels helped protect capital on those two defensive plays (XOM and AMZN). That marks a 7:2 win ratio during a week when the SPX closed virtually flat at +0.1%. And even better, the setups blueprint shows the price levels for all the watchlist, if you are a TSLA, NVDA, or IBIT permanent enthusiast, the setups for all this watchlist is presented below:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

Unlock this objective approach by upgrading to the paid plan. Subscribers also get access to educational content and Market Intelligence analyses, fundamentals, and how to get the most out of the high-probability setups. Everything is available at smartreversals.com. Zero gut feeling. Everything is specific.

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My complete Market Intelligence and educational content is here, paid subscribers have access to all the linked content and my two downloadable eBooks on technical indicators, they include real life charts.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

• Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Let’s begin.

SPX: Is a Correction Coming?

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The S&P 500 is heading into a turbulent seasonal month. Over the last 40 years, the SPX has seen a positive close in September just 48% of the time. This is well below the 72% historical positive average that I mention as the benchmark based on the last 70 years; anything notably above or below that reference gains relevance. Worth noting as well, the average move for September over the past 40 years has been -0.84%.

A 48% win rate is a significant deviation to consider, and its relevance increases when you see that August is closing in the green this year. When I analyzed the years individually, many of the green Septembers were preceded by a red August, and vice versa, meaning that the window for a healthy pullback is narrowing. This volatile season is split in two months, with August green the odds of seeing volatility in September increase. See the two charts below:

When analyzing only the midterm years, September has been positive 40% of the time, and the average move has been -2%. This is important context to consider before we study the charts below.

What could drive a negative move in September? When I study statistics, paid subscribers know that I like to understand the context alongside the individual charts, which is precisely what we are doing today.

For general context in this instriduction, consider that just last Thursday, the probability of a rate hike in September was only 35%. After Kevin Warsh’s speech as the new Fed Chair in Jackson Hole, the probability jumped to 57%, as officially reported on FedWatch. That’s a major jump.

Today, we will review additional context regarding our technical charts, as they do not contradict a bearish move in September for several indices and stocks.

Is this a call for a general crash? No. I provide neutral analysis focused on a specific watchlist of megacaps and ETFs. These assets feature high market caps, ensuring this community is familiar with their fundamentals, alongside high daily volume that allows buy and sell orders to be filled quickly. This focus also ensures the availability of leveraged instruments, such as options and leveraged ETFs, for subscribers who use them to navigate the price action of well-known companies, indices or ETFs.

With that said, August has been a strong month for the bullish moves called in this publication with clear timing and price references, the SPX jumped the first days of the month (3rd and 4th of August), but the price has been stagnant in a narrow range for al the rest of the month, in the meantime, bullish calls posted in this publication have paid off in August: SPCX (is up +30% this month 🎯), GLD (+10% 🎯), TSLA (+12% 🎯), NFLX (+14% 🎯), PLTR +51% (navigating the post earnings rally 🎯), and others like Bitcoin 🎯 (up 23% so far in August). I provide the technical case alongside weekly and monthly central levels every week so traders and investors can manage risk according to their respective timeframes.

The week that just ended was choppy. When setups begin to lose their key levels and the bearish theses prevail, it serves as a warning sign. As expected this week according to the Setups Blueprint, AMD and SMH were bearish; both tickers reached their targets of 450 (-4,9% 🎯) and 544 (-2.9% 🎯) respectively this week. The expectation for a bearish move in XOM was validated as well with a -5% weekly move.

The updated setups are here, unlock which tickers are curling down favoring risk for bears, and which ones are likely to continue a bullish pathway using technical indicators and specific price levels. Upgrade to the paid plan here:

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Subscribers also get access to educational content and Market Intelligence analyses, recent and how to get the most out of the high-probability setups or trade ideas posted here. Everything is available at smartreversals.com. Zero gut feeling. Everything is specific.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

• Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Let’s begin.

SPX: Only a 40% Chance of a Bullish September, and the Charts Agree

Here is how you can manage the current conditions:

Read more

Technical analysis has proven to be a powerful edge for both long-term investors and traders. Over the past weeks, I have provided documented calls with clear references to significant moves in the market, and this week offers a good opportunity to connect precise calls.

1. On July 29th, I called the bullish reversal for Gold with specific levels. While many analysts had been constructing the bull case for months, Gold had already dropped roughly 30% from its peak, a drawdown that even the most committed long-term holders struggle to sit through without a technical framework to lean on. The call was documented, GLD is up +13.9% since my note, the levels were clear, and the reversal played out.

2. On August 1st, I identified the bounce case for SpaceX. The stock is up +26% since, and paid subscribers have received the daily levels for that stock along with my daily note anticipating levels for the SPX and ES=F, giving them a concrete reference before each trading day begins.

3. Last week, I documented the current SPX pullback as a high-probability setup. The index declined -1.4% this week, in line with what was flagged. But here is the part that matters most for how I approach the market:

   1. Not every stock falls when the SPX falls. That is one of the most important edges a focused watchlist provides. Tesla rallied 6% this week. Netflix rallied 2%. Both were called as high probability setups last week, with specific targets and the levels where algorithms were likely to react.

   2. Last week, I noted the importance of the 4 year cycle for Bitcoin, we are in the most bearish moment of the most bearish year, BTC was weak below its 200 MA as documented, but also above is CML of 62,7K.

That is the core of what I do. The market is heavily driven by algorithms, and those algorithms respond to technical levels. When I publish a setup, I am not offering an opinion. I am modeling the specific prices where institutional algorithms are likely to react including targets and invalidation levels, TSLA had bullish target at 366, NFLX 80, DIA had extended bearish targets at 531 and 527, SMH at 600, and the SPX at 7,673. Numbers always tell the facts, they were modeled ahead of the week and set as targets.

Unlock the updated analysis and target levels for next week by subscribing to the paid plan. Premium subscribers receive 3 core publications per week with today’s Weekly Compass as the main one, and the following perks:

1. Daily levels for SPX and ES=F with market observations after the closing bell, so you have your evening to plan your moves.

2. Customized weekly levels for your watchlist, you post your tickers in the paid subscribers chat and they levels are posted on Sunday evening.

3. Download my 2 eBooks on technical analysis and get access to my Market Intelligence Library, including special technical studies and educational content on technical indicators with real life charts. Find it right here:

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Risk management is always considered, the Central Weekly Level (CWL) works as invalidation alert for the bullish or bearish thesis, this week the IWM proved Small Caps cannot be divorced from the big indices when they fall, and despite of the bullish setup, IWM breached 303 on Tuesday, providing an exit sign from the long position.

People dismiss technicals during euphoria. It happened with Micron (MU). It happened with AMD. It happened with Gold, Silver, and Palantir in 2025. Every one of those situations produced a double-digit correction for anyone who ignored overbought conditions because the narrative felt compelling. The bill always comes, and it is always larger when technical conditions are not part of the decision. Same case with oversold conditions, when a security is there, human psychology is fueled with fear and aversion, but technicals may be showing a solid setup, as it was the case for Gold, SPCX, and most recently, Bitcoin.

• Gold Bullish call: July 29th

• SpaceX (SPCX) Bullish Call: Aug 1st

• SPX Bearish call AND 4 year Bitcoin Cycle Note: Aug 15th

Last week I published a broad analysis covering the Federal Reserve, oil, company fundamentals, insider selling, valuations, and geopolitical conditions. Those factors do not change week to week. If you have not read that piece, the link is below. It provides the structural context behind every technical setup I publish, and the last one was bearish for the SPX.

The watchlist I use is intentional and focused. It is a concentrated group of high-volume securities where fundamentals are transparent and well-documented and accessible, technical signals are reliable, and the options and leveraged ETF markets provide additional tools for those who want to use them.

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

When analyzing the moves during the 5 days of the week that just ended, the picture shows weakness in the market: Technology (XLK) fell sharply, Financials (XLF) followed, and Consumer Staples (XLY) stayed flat, while money rotated to defensives like materials (XLB) and healthcare (XLV); energy (XLE) rallied, something that as studied last Saturday (link above), it may happen in economic expansion moments, or it can be driven by supply reduction that endangers inflation, as it is the case today.

Every study and publication is available at smartreversals.com. Zero gut feeling, everything is specific.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

• Special Zoom in to TSLA: The latest +16% has been consistent with technical analysis, important educational note.

SPX: The Bearish Move is Unlikely Finished

Macro factors like the escalation in government bond yields, surge in oil prices driven by the geopolitical conflict in Iran, rising national debt concerns, and the technical factors presented here suggest the bearish move is not complete for the SPX, the 4 critical indicators to track are here:

Read more

The S&P 500 is sitting at record highs, earnings season just delivered its strongest beat rate since 2021, and artificial intelligence continues to fuel one of the most powerful investment narratives in a generation. On the surface, the bull case has rarely looked cleaner, and that is precisely when careful assessment of context and disciplined risk management matter most.

Macro + fundamental analysis combined with technical charts remain the most effective way to navigate markets. The best recent illustration of why all three matter is Gold; the macro-bullish case was valid and widely endorsed. Yet GC Futures still fell 29% from peak in March to trough by June (5,434 to 3,955). My bullish reversal call came much more precise than macro analysis on July 29th, based on price action, and the reasoning is documented in that day’s publication (link). The same principle applies to Silver, which fell from a January peak near 121 to approximately 55 by July, a -54% collapse that may have looked unthinkable in the first weeks of 2026 when precious metals sentiment was at peak euphoria despite extreme overbought conditions on the charts. Macro conviction without technical discipline can be very expensive.

The same dynamic played out in Micron. On June 25th, the day earnings were reported, the overbought conditions and the gap open acting as a price magnet were flagged in real time. Micron fell roughly 41% from that day through the end of July. That kind of move is painful for anyone positioned without awareness of technical conditions, and the point is not to be right about a single trade but to recognize that ignoring chart structure while following a compelling narrative carries unnecessary risk.

Integrating macro, fundamental, and technical analysis is not optional for serious investors. It is the framework that keeps a third of your capital from disappearing in a trend reversal, or half of it in a commodity crash that the crowd never saw coming.

With that foundation in place, last weekend’s publication covered the strong fundamental strength in corporate America, and my Wednesday’s analysis addressed the six Magnificent Seven members that had reported earnings by that point.

Gain full access by upgrading to the paid plan. Your membership includes three core weekly publications featuring modeled price levels for the week ahead on Fridays, the Weekly Compass with technical actionable trade setups on Saturdays, comprehensive Market Intelligence on Wednesdays, and daily updates on SPX and ES=F. Everything is available at smartreversals.com.

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Today’s Agenda

• Macro Picture: Corporate Insiders, Valuations, Institutional Positioning, FED, Oil.

• Technical Context: Charts for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, Gold, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Charts and price targets for Magnificent Seven and other megacaps.

• Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Let’s begin.

Macro Picture

Corporate insiders sold $77.6 billion worth of stock in the first half of 2026, the second-highest level of selling recorded in more than two decades. For every insider buying shares, eleven were selling. That is not noise. That is the people with the most information about future earnings, margins, and competitive positioning quietly reducing their own exposure at prices they apparently do not find attractive enough to hold.

The earnings picture is real but nuanced. Eighty-six percent of S&P 500 companies beat Q2 estimates, above both the five-year and ten-year averages, and those estimates had already been revised upward heading into reporting season, which makes the beat rate more meaningful than usual. Revenue growth came in near 13%, the strongest since 2022. The caveat is that stripping out one-time valuation gains at two companies (GOOG and AMZN) drops the headline blended EPS growth rate from 47% to 29%. Still strong, but worth understanding what is actually driving the aggregate.

Valuation is where the conversation gets harder. The Shiller CAPE ratio, which smooths earnings over ten years to remove the distortions of any single cycle, currently sits at approximately 40.5. In roughly 150 years of market history, that level has only been exceeded once: in late 1999 at the peak of the dot-com bubble, when it reached 44. The difference today is that the leading companies generating these multiples actually have earnings, free cash flow, and proven business models. The dot-com era was largely built on projections. This one is built on real revenue. That distinction matters, but it does not make 40 times cyclically adjusted earnings cheap.

Institutional positioning: Equity allocations among institutional investors reached their highest level since October 2007 earlier this year, while bond allocations fell to their lowest since 2008. The structural over-allocation to equities versus fixed income hit a 15-year extreme. When the largest pools of capital are already maximally committed, the marginal buyer becomes harder to find.

Federal Reserve and Oil: Key Catalysts Poised to Trigger the Next Market Move

The Federal Reserve is the one that most directly echoes the conditions that preceded the last great bubble unwinding, hence the major resistance zones for the SPX:

Read more

As of the end of the trading week on Friday, August 7, 2026, 88% of the companies listed in the S&P 500 have officially posted their actual earnings results for the second-quarter corporate reporting cycle. Overall, the corporate reporting cycle has exceeded Wall Street’s original expectations, driving the index to its broadest and highest profit expansion in several years considering:

• 86% of reporting companies have beaten their consensus Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimates. This is well above the historical 5-year average of 78% and the 10-year average of 76%.

• Approximately 77% of S&P 500 companies have exceeded their revenue expectations. All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 are concurrently reporting positive revenue growth for the quarter.

• The blended year-over-year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 (SPX) stands at 50.4%. If this holds, it will mark the single highest earnings growth rate reported by the index since Q2 2021.

• The blended revenue growth rate, currently marks a 14.1% year-over-year, marking a substantial top-line expansion for major U.S. firms.

While corporate fundamentals are performing exceptionally well (and that’s a major bullish factor for the SPX), the global macro and geopolitical context introduces complex undercurrents.

Macro: The July jobs data delivered an unexpected contraction, with non-farm payrolls dropping by 23,000 jobs (missing expectations for an 83,000 gain) and the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.1%. While a drop in hiring looks weak superficially, equity markets translated this as a buffer against further monetary tightening, fed funds futures priced the probability of a September rate hike down to 44% (from 55%), giving the market near-term breathing room and fueling the bullish action on Friday.

Geopolitics: Since war broke out in late February, energy shipping transit via the Strait of Hormuz (which normally moves 20% of global oil) has faced major disruptions. This week, oil markets experienced volatile swings over an Oman-brokered diplomatic layout. CL=F fell -11% this week closing at $77 after a published Iranian draft bill proposed taxing transit and banning U.S. and Israeli vessels from entering the channel.

With all that said, investing and trading rarely present the perfect environment. If you wait for a solid corporate context like the one we have now, with inflation, jobs, consumer sentiment, GDP, and other macro factors favoring the market, and geopolitics entirely peaceful and cooperative, you may find yourself waiting a very long time (if not forever), out of the market or always managing to find a factor to expect a decline.

For that reason, my focus remains on price action analyzed through technical indicators, always keeping the fundamentals behind the charts in mind. By setting targets and risk management with modeled support and resistance levels (proven over more than two years of this publication to be zones where institutional algorithms react) we navigate the markets with discipline and clarity about the context.

Actionable insights:

This Saturday’s publication provides a blueprint of setups across indices, ETFs, megacaps, and crypto. By tracking a consistent watchlist with technical analysis and levels, we successfully monitor rotations across sectors and assets.

Here are the high probability setups that played out this week:

• PLTR: Triggered a bullish reversal by recovering the 124 central weekly level 🎯, exceeding its target by far with a 39% weekly move.

• TSLA: Executed a bullish reversal, hitting the 328 extended target for a +5.4% weekly gain 🎯.

• META: Bounced off a recovery of 564. While noted transparently that the +8% target of 603 might take more than a single week, the stock still rallied +6.3% 🎯.

• GOOG: Bullish setup to hit the 381 extended target (+6.9%) 🎯. Before a precise reversal from that modeled zone.

• GLD: Remained bullish as anticipated, surpassing the 388 target for a +7.3% weekly gain 🎯.

• MSFT: Reached its 491 bullish target for a secure +5.8% move 🎯.

• SPCX: Highlighted in Thursday’s daily post to paid subscribers with a successful bullish setup above 111 and providing a complete set of levels to trail stops for the eventual bullish move that indeed happened 🎯.

That is 7 high-probability setups successfully playing out. Trading is never about perfection, of course; this week also included a bearish setup for AAPL that remains in progress and has not yet reached its target.

Unlock professional analysis and crystal-clear insights by subscribing to the paid plan. You will receive 3 core publications per week plus daily posts with levels for the SPX in you inbox.

Everything is available at smartreversals.com. Zero gut feeling. Everything is specific.

Important Announcement: Daily posts now include daily levels for ES Futures for all paid subscribers!.

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Common Questions on the Minds of Investors and Traders

With so much noise coming from mainstream media, and even more from social media, let’s address these three questions:

1. Is the Economy Strong?

2. How Are Fundamentals Doing for the Medium and Long Term?

3. Is It Real There Is an AI Bubble?

Economy: A Modest, Dual-Track Economic Slowdown

The economy is currently showing clear signs of cooling down under the weight of sustained interest rates and localized energy constraints, but it remains structurally resilient rather than collapsing.

• The Soft Landing/Cooling Trend: The defining macro indicator of the week (the unexpected loss of 23,000 U.S. jobs in July) proves the labor market is finally easing. However, the equity markets treated this “bad news as good news” because a softer job market drastically lowers the probability of any upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

• Resilient Consumer Spending: Corporate reports from consumer-facing giants do not indicate a recession. WMT has seen net sales growth forecasts +4.8% to +5.1%, driven in part by value-conscious consumers and strong e-commerce growth., Visa (V) processed a historic $4 trillion in transactions in a single quarter, and JPM saw investment banking fees surge 38%. The consumer is active, though increasingly cost-conscious.

Fundamentals: Structurally Sound with Temporary Margin Pressure

For the medium and long term, corporate fundamentals remain remarkably healthy, though companies are facing short-term profitability hurdles.

• Top-Line Growth is Real: Across the board, mega-cap revenue growth is exceptional. AMZN posted a 20% revenue jump, MSFT climbed 18%, and GOOG rose 24%. These are not hollow metrics; they indicate robust demand for secular digital services.

• The Margin Squeeze: The near-term headwinds are self-inflicted by aggressive corporate investment. Companies are sacrificing immediate profitability (operating margins) to build out future infrastructure. For instance, TSLA saw its operating margin compress to 1.4% as it shifted capital entirely toward robotic compute, R&D, and pricing adjustments.

AI Bubble: An Infrastructure Overbuild Correction, Not a 2000-Style Dot-Com Crash

The dramatic after-hours sell-offs of companies that heavily beat earnings targets—such as AMD and SpaceX (SPCX) prove that Wall Street is suffering from severe AI Capital Expenditure Fatigue. Investors are no longer blindly cheering artificial intelligence announcements; they are demanding short-term returns on capital expenditures.

• Why it looks like a bubble: The cash burn required to participate in the AI race is astonishing. AMD nearly tripled analyst models by spending $808 million in capital expenditures last quarter. SpaceX recorded a jaw-dropping $18.37 billion quarterly capex bill to support orbital data infrastructure. GOOG ($195B–$205B annual forecast) and META ($130B–$145B annual forecast) are pushing spending to levels that create near-term return-on-investment (ROI) anxiety.

• Why the fundamentals differ from past bubbles: Unlike the 2000 dot-com bubble, which was built on profitless concepts and eyeball metrics, the 2026 AI expansion is entirely funded by cash-rich, highly profitable monopolies. Furthermore, real enterprise revenue is materializing. PLTR upgraded its full-year revenue projection past $8.15 billion entirely because of domestic corporate AI adoption, and MSFT’s Azure cloud run-rate topped $100 billion.

• The market is experiencing is an infrastructure overbuild digestion phase. Stock prices are experiencing corrections because valuations ran too far ahead of near-term cash flows, but the underlying medium-to-long-term enterprise fundamentals, digital migration, and macroeconomic consumer pillars remain definitively intact.

Summary Conclusion: What the market is experiencing is an infrastructure overbuild digestion phase. Stock prices are experiencing corrections because valuations ran too far ahead of near-term cash flows (as technical analysis warned for AMD, MU, weeks ago), but the underlying medium-to-long-term enterprise fundamentals, digital migration, and macroeconomic consumer pillars remain strong.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

• Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Let’s begin.

Over the past few days, I have highlighted the potential for an SPCX bounce. SPCX made its first appearance in the Weekly Compass last week, and my bullish outlook stems from an objective study of its technicals, alongside the Market Intelligence study I published on June 10th analyzing the historical price behavior of previous IPOs including TSLA, PLTR, BABA, META, and others. SPCX is following the script.

For new paid subscribers, please read the study here, today the chart analysis for SPCX is consistent with it:

SPX: What is the Next Strong Resistance?

I anticipated 7,638 as a major resistance zone before the index topped at 7,620. The price declined from there and printed choppy price action for over two months, we have now navigated the first turbulent zone outlined in this April analysis:

The chart below presents the next major resistance to watch and the technical conditions suggesting specific direction for the index:

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The final week of July 2026 was a dramatic, high-stakes rollercoaster on Wall Street as expected. After navigating sharp sector swings, a highly divided Federal Reserve meeting, and heavy macroeconomic data, a late-week short squeeze in technology enabled the broad market to claw back into positive territory for the week.

Many storms were anticipated last week in this publication, with each day bringing its own unique set of volatility drivers:

1. The Federal Reserve: A Hawkish Hold

The Federal Reserve took center stage on Wednesday, voting 9–3 to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. However, the decision was far more hawkish than anticipated. Three regional Fed presidents dissented, voting instead for an immediate 25-basis-point interest rate hike due to sticky inflation that has remained above target for five years. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized a period of watchful thinking, driving up pressure for a potential rate hike in September.

2. Major Corporate Earnings: The AI Capex Battle

Earnings season entered its most critical phase, with investors heavily scrutinizing whether massive corporate infrastructure spending on artificial intelligence would damage near-term profitability.

• MSFT: Acted as the tech sector’s savior. Shares soared 15.5% on Thursday, recording the largest single-day market-cap gain in U.S. history, after delivering robust Azure cloud results that proved its massive AI capital investments are successfully materializing into growth. The bounce was consistent with technical conditions we studied last week ✅.

• META: Fell 8% on Thursday after raising its full-year capital expenditure forecast to a massive $130 billion to $145 billion range, missing earnings expectations due to spiking infrastructure expenses. The gap fill attempt I mentioned is in progress, the price bounced +3% on Friday following the bounce from the lows on Thursday (Considered based on the bearish overextension studied on Wednesday) ✅.

• AMZN & AAPL: Displayed a mixed post-market reaction on Thursday. Amazon popped 15% on strong cloud segments, while Apple cooled -7% following its ascent to a historic $5 trillion market valuation earlier in the week. Both moves were consistent with technical conditions studied here that suggested a bullish reversal for AMZN ✅, and a bearish one for AAPL ✅.

3. The Semiconductor Squeeze: Hedge Fund Liquidation

A massive catalyst for the technology market’s late-week U-turn was the orderly liquidation of Situational Awareness, a prominent $20 billion AI-focused hedge fund. Hit by severe margin calls during July’s tech downturn, the fund was forced into a fire sale, offloading its entire leveraged public stock portfolio to Ken Griffin’s Citadel.

Because Situational Awareness had a massive, crowded exposure to technology longs, the completion of this block transaction cleanly removed a massive selling overhang from the sector. Short sellers caught in the vacuum rushed to cover, fueling a violent semiconductor short squeeze. AMD and MU both surged over 10% on Thursday, while SNDK rocketed over 25%. It’s worth noting that the rally did not continue on Friday, leaving open the considerations for a tactical bounce instead of a sustainable one. We will monitor semiconductor stocks next week in my daily notes including their levels.

4. Key Economic Indicators

A flurry of indicators released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis established a stabilizing floor for equity markets:

• Slowing GDP: Advance estimates revealed U.S. Q2 Gross Domestic Product slowed down to a 1.5% annualized growth rate, down from 2.1% in Q1 and coming in below economists’ expectations.

• Cooling PCE Inflation: The Fed’s preferred inflation metric, the Core PCE Price Index (excluding food and energy), cooled to a mild 0.1% monthly increase in June, dragging the year-over-year baseline down to 3.3%.

• Resilient Labor Data: Initial weekly jobless claims edged higher by 9,000 to 197,000.

5. The Iranian Influence on the Weekly Market

Iran played a central role in driving the market’s volatility, acting as a major swing factor for global energy prices and inflation expectations throughout the week.

• The Early-Week Dip (Diplomatic Hopes): Early in the week, crude oil prices cratered because the U.S. and Iran temporarily paused a 13-day wave of active military strikes to give backroom diplomacy space.

• The Mid-Week Spike (Renewed Conflict): This diplomatic optimism shattered on Wednesday. Tensions flared after Iranian-backed militias launched a surprise missile attack on U.S. forces in the Middle East, prompting immediate joint retaliatory airstrikes by U.S. and Saudi forces against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets. Concurrently, Iran-aligned Houthi militants intensified a maritime embargo in the Red Sea, targeting Saudi tankers. This sudden re-escalation caused Brent crude to jump back, compounding the intense broad-market equity sell-off on Wednesday due to resurgent inflation fears and a hawkish FED as we studied that day.

• Late-Week Stabilization: Energy and stock markets finally settled late Thursday and Friday after Saudi Arabia proposed a 40-country multinational naval coalition to protect critical Red Sea passages.

Ultimately, the softer GDP and PCE readings checked surging bond yields, providing macroeconomic reassurance that the Fed might pause on rate hikes, which allowed the massive short squeeze and earnings beats to power the indexes higher by Friday.

Now that most of the storms have passed (the situation in Iran is a constant roller coaster), let’s assess the technical conditions for next week.

Last week the high probability setups worked very well, the Support and Resistance Levels proved once again how powerful they are to set targets when momentum and reversals are correctly assessed with objective technical analysis.

MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, WMT, COST, and JPM all reached or exceeded their bullish targets 🎯, with AAPL's higher push and subsequent retrace well considered on Wednesday. Meanwhile, AMD and SMH hit my bearish targets 🎯, META's bullish setup remained untriggered, and XOM continues to look constructive as it navigates its target. That equates to an 9 out of 11 win rate on reaching target prices, or 10 out of 11 when factoring in overall directional accuracy.

Technical analysis is the ultimate reflection of human psychology. Unlock the charts and setups below for next week. Semiconductors still have work to do, and a few Magnificent Seven stocks could begin a healthy consolidation phase, just as we typically see following such aggressive moves.

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Unlock this objective approach by upgrading to the paid plan. Subscribers get access to 3 core publications per week covering indices, megacaps, and major ETFs (this is one of them) plus daily updates with SPX levels. Everything is available at smartreversals.com. Zero gut feeling. Everything is specific.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

• Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Let’s begin.

SPX: How Strong is the Rally?

When analyzing sector performance during the week, only Consumer Discretionary closed with bullish conviction, driven by AMZN's rally while TSLA closed flat attempting to find a bottom. Financials, Communications, and Staples gained over 1% each, while all other sectors declined. Technology continued printing internal divergences; despite the rallies in MSFT and the rebound in semiconductors, the group ultimately closed flat.

How does it happen? The gains in names like AVGO were offset by losses in NVDA, while net weekly declines in MU, AMD, AMAT, INTC, and of course, AAPL, offset the rally in MSFT. That divergence continues to demand attention for the coming week. For that reason, the daily levels for MU, AMD, AMAT, SNDK, NVDA, AVGO, and SMH will be tracked in my daily notes, along with PLTR and SPCX (SpaceX not yet in the SPX, but large enough to move the market).

When analyzing the chart for the SPX, these are the conditions and levels that must hold in order to recover bullish momentum, see the comparison with previous declines and corrections:

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The Q2 2026 earnings season has revealed a divergence between the broader market and the highly scrutinized mega-cap technology space, while Wall Street banks and key defensive sectors like healthcare have delivered strong results.

In the tech sector, sharp post-earnings stock declines for mega-caps like GOOG and TSLA were generally not caused by poor revenue or core business growth. Instead, a clear pattern of “AI cash burn anxiety” emerged. Both Alphabet and Tesla handily beat top-line expectations, with Google Cloud revenues surging and Tesla delivering solid vehicle metrics. However, Alphabet’s massive infrastructure spending pushed its quarterly free cash flow into a negative deficit, while Tesla’s core automotive margins narrowed due to EV price wars and heavy AI investments. Investors are no longer content with just impressive AI growth, and the market is aggressively punishing companies where massive capital expenditures actively drain free cash flow before showing direct, near-term monetization.

Why is the NDX 9% Below All-Time Highs While the SPX Is Down Just 3%?

In contrast to the tech sector’s volatile reception, major U.S. financial institutions kicked off the earnings season with strong results. JPMorgan (JPM) led the financial sector posting robust net profits and beating consensus EPS expectations. The overarching theme for big banks, including BAC, GS, MS; is a resurgence in capital markets. Wall Street trading desks and investment banking advisory fees surged, driven by a macro recovery in global mergers and acquisitions and high-volume equity trading, while consumer credit profiles remained stable.

Adding a vital defensive pillar to the broader market narrative, the healthcare sector delivered heavyweight support led by UnitedHealth Group (UNH), with a stellar Q2 report that crushed Wall Street expectations. Its medical care ratio improved signaling that medical cost utilization and Medicare Advantage pressures are normalizing faster than anticipated. Bolstered by disciplined cost management and raised full-year guidance. The broader healthcare landscape shows that defensive companies with pricing power and cost controls can insulate themselves from macro headwinds, offering a stable safe haven while capital cycles rotate away from overextended growth areas.

The Energy sector is being fueled by oil prices, the sector is projected to post the highest year-over-year earnings growth rate of all eleven S&P sectors, surging over 100%. This week XOM, SHEL, and CVX will post earnings reports and we will learn the actual effect of oil prices.

With that said we have three observations:

1. Corporate America remains profitable on an index level, with blended year-over-year S&P 500 earnings growth tracking near multi-year highs. From the fundamental or micro perspective the outlook is promising.

2. Capital is shifting away from priced-to-perfection AI hardware and software giants and flowing instead into historically disciplined, cash-flow-supportive sectors like financials, healthcare, and select cyclicals. The problem with that is the influence of technology in the general market and consumer discretionary.

3. Monitoring megacaps and high volume assets in general from different sectors is a healthy discipline, last week the anticipated bullish moves for JPM, IBIT, ETHA, GLD reached their targets, as the bottom I called for XOM three weeks ago continues working, the stock is up +15% from the bullish reversal call.

Unlock the premium content by upgrading to the paid plan. The complete set of charts and price targets for next week are below. The previous publications and this one are available at smartreversals.com.

With major companies reporting earnings next week, my daily note with SPX levels will also provide bullish-above and bearish-below levels along with their targets for the following securities: MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, META, XOM, V, QCOM, and KO (which are all posting earnings), as well as SPCX, which is technically oversold and will post earnings the following week.

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Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

• Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Let’s begin.

SPX: Next Week is Critical

This is a market with major moves overnight driven by not one, not two, nor three macro factors, but next week it will be driven by four macro factors (1) Conflict in Iran, 2) tariffs (Foreign Retaliation and/or White House Expansion Threats), 3) Fed meeting and PCE, 4) tech investors questioning when the major capital expenditures will be recovered) plus a fifth factor: the earnings report of many of the biggest companies based on market capitalization. This choppy market has brought major swings overnight and next week it is not expected to be any different.

Non-tech sectors have provided support for the S&P500, but if the market's reaction to next week's earnings reports mirrors the negative sentiment seen with GOOG and TSLA, the sell-off will likely continue. Last week for example, the expected bullish continuation for PLTR lost its central weekly level, while the anticipated bearish move for AMZN played out as projected, clearly accompanied by high volatility. Overall, last week proved to be a difficult period for the technology sector, dragging down the SPX and causing it to lose its Central Monthly Level on Thursday, which then acted as resistance on Friday as anticipated.

Technical conditions presented with the charts below provide a roadmap and tools to navigate this context, indicators give us direction probabilities, and price levels provide confirmations. Let’s begin with the SPX chart and then we continue with VIX, Breadth, and NDX to present the likely destination for this market move:

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This week’s economic indicators paint a picture of steady growth and a resilient labor market, though slight cracks are appearing in consumer activity. Labor market stability remains a highlight, as initial jobless claims fell by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 208,000, outperforming the consensus estimate of 217,000. Meanwhile, consumer spending showed steady headline demand, with June retail sales ticking up 0.2% as vehicle sales and online retail offset a steep drop in fuel prices. Anyway, core retail sales (excluding autos) unexpectedly dipped 0.2%. On the production side, the Philadelphia Fed Business Index surged to a blowout reading of 41.4 in July, crushing forecasts of 12.7 and signaling robust growth in northeastern manufacturing.

Why the Market Pullback? Three Macro Factors to Consider

Tech dragged down the SPX as this heat map presents for the week, below are the reasons:

First, the Federal Reserve, under newly appointed Chair Kevin Warsh, held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.6%. In his first congressional testimony this week, Warsh maintained a strict hawkish tone, reiterating that the Fed has no tolerance for sticky inflation and purposely avoiding any market-friendly forward guidance. The Federal Reserve’s recent Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) lifted core PCE inflation forecasts to 3.3% for 2026, with 9 out of 18 officials projecting at least one rate hike before the year concludes. Driven by rising energy prices and strong labor data, interest-rate futures markets have adjusted aggressively; traders now assign a 15% probability to a rate hike at the upcoming late-July meeting, while expectations for a hike in September have surged to roughly 65%.

Second, the U.S.– Iran ceasefire has officially collapsed as hostilities intensify, with U.S. airstrikes targeting Iranian infrastructure following a series of retaliatory strikes by Iran across the region. Tensions have further escalated in the Strait of Hormuz, where the U.S. has reimposed a naval blockade and Iran has begun targeting commercial shipping, leading to a 14% surge in oil futures CL=F this week to $81.7.

Finally, we must account for the intensifying pressure on semiconductors, driven by both structural and competitive shifts. TSMC recently raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to a range of $60 billion to $64 billion, significantly exceeding its previous $56 billion ceiling. For high-multiplier tech stocks, such a massive spike in capex implies heavier near-term depreciation loads and constrained free cash flow, leading investors to scrutinize whether the expected returns on this AI infrastructure truly justify such extreme spending. This skepticism is compounded by the rapid maturation of Chinese AI models, specifically Moonshot AI’s newly launched Kimi K3. By offering world-class performance through an open-weight, low-cost model, Chinese developers are effectively challenging the proprietary "walled gardens" of U.S. firms. As highly capable alternatives emerge globally, the market is beginning to question the sustainability of the current U.S. AI capital arms race and the eventual return on investment for the sector's darlings (AMD, MU, NVDA, AVGO, etc).

News are Catalysts for Technical Conditions

Everything is connected, and the recent events are consistent with two elements I have been documenting in this publication: The high odds of a bullish reversal in oil, and more specifically in XOM as a high probability setup posted last week considering a bullish reversal validated by a recovery of 139.6 with targets at 143 and extension to 147 (provided in S/R Levels), the stock jumped 6.1% this week closing at 147.4 🎯.

For semiconductors, the bearish conditions have been documented, last Saturday this publication highlighted the gap for SMH at 595 and the loss of key moving averages; for AMD I highlighted the gap a 522 and the shooting star in place. those elements are examples of technical conditions studied. As example of using levels as triggers we analyzed the implications (bearish destinations) for SMH and AMD if 598 and 541 were lost (547 🎯 and 468.8 🎯 were extended targets respectively, both securities reversed there on Friday).

=> Technical conditions + Levels are a strong formula to navigate the market.

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High Probability Setups

Neutrality: I remain bullish when technical conditions support it and bearish when a reversal is likely. This is an important distinction for new subscribers who may be accustomed to the inherent bias found in many other publications. For instance, there are metal-focused outlets that have maintained a bullish stance since March in Gold and Silver despite of the clear overextension that needed a major correction, crypto publications insisting in a bounce when technicals did not support that, and others that remain dogmatically bullish on semiconductors regardless of the charts.

Will they reach all-time highs again? Certainly. However, identifying exactly when and how much pain is required to get there is where neutral, professional technical analysis provides the most value.

I was bullish at the market bottom in late March providing clear references, targeting 7,638 for the SPX and announcing on the day that 7,620 was reached, that the milestone could be considered met. More recently, over the past two weeks, we have monitored the internal divergence in tech, including the bearish call in late June for semiconductors, while simultaneously providing specific bullish targets for a bounce in select Magnificent Seven names. That is neutrality, and that is how you outperform the market.

When indices are choppy, individual names are key: Three weeks ago, I highlighted the probabilities for a bullish reversal in Bitcoin, providing specific targets along with risk management and invalidation levels. Bitcoin and Ethereum, tracked via their respective ETFs, IBIT and ETHA, have since jumped 6% and 15% reaching this week our targets of 37 🎯 and over 14 🎯, respectively. MSFT surpassed this week our bullish target of 396 by nearing the documented extension at 406 for a 5.6% move 🎯, while WMT hit its bullish target extension at 117.3 for a 3% gain 🎯, and as mentioned above, XOM surpassed 147.6 with comfort 🎯.

Unlock this transparent and objective approach every week by upgrading to the paid plan, the setups for next week are here with price targets and risk management levels. Subscribers also get daily market updates with levels for the SPX, and access to educational content and Market Intelligence analyses.

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Everything is available at smartreversals.com. Zero gut feeling, everything is specific.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual charts and targets for all Magnificent 7 and megacaps.

• Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Today I included SpaceX in the charts, the stock has been tracked using levels from day 1, now there is a good set of data and technical signals that are worth watching.

Let’s begin.

SPX: Tech Lost the Critical level - Implications for SP500

We have been tracking this topping process, highlighting its various stages in this chart. From the early warnings that precede each pullback highlighted in each yellow box to the major confirmation sign forming today as the new convention highlights here for the S&P 500:

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Market volatility remains elevated, with semiconductors continuing to drive the major swings we are witnessing. This highlights the ongoing internal divergence within the technology sector: while semiconductors lead the decline, the Magnificent Seven have acted as a buffer, holding the NDX and XLK from falling with more conviction.

The Semiconductor Struggle: Micron (MU) continues to slide, down -21% this month and -28% from its June peak (when I highlighted the elevated risk of chasing the after earnings euphoria). As I have noted in recent weeks, this is a classic correction following overextension, similar to past patterns in Gold, Silver, PLTR, MSFT (2025), and NFLX (2025). Interestingly, while SMH fell -1.6%, AMD -3.5%, and TSM -3.4% this week, NVDA closed flat (+0.3%), remaining resilient amidst the sector storm.

The Tech Divergence: Today, the Magnificent Seven were mostly bullish, preventing a broader tech decline. AAPL (+4%), MSFT (+2.8%), AMZN (+3%), GOOG (+3.6%), and META (+3.1%) all outperformed, with TSLA the only outlier (-0.4%).

Trading Recap & Strategy: Yesterday, I provided a tactical hint on how to anticipate premarket ‘traps’ that vanish at the open. That setup played out perfectly today for the SPX and QQQ. People who set the timeframe and indicator I mentioned yesterday sow a live example of the likely reversal, and if using the daily levels anticipated yesterday for today, the navigation of the retrace was smooth until the price reached our Central Daily Level (CDL), where the market reversed. Today, the SPX 7,538 level acted as precise support at noon, while the 7,562 level served as our bullish recovery target.

Subscribe to the paid plan and receive daily market updates, including anticipated institutional-grade support and resistance levels for the S&P 500. Plan ahead your trades with this golden tool.

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Below, I have analyzed the most critical chart for this week, the one that will dictate the next leg for the NDX and SPX. I have also provided updated daily levels for the SPX, QQQ, SMH, IWM, DIA, IGV, as key ETFs, alongside high-probability setups updates for AAPL, MSFT, XOM, ETH, WMT; all of them moving in the expected direction, and others, all studied in the latest Weekly Compass.

When the indices are choppy, it pays to navigate individual names.

Let’s begin.

Market Direction - The One Chart You Need to Watch

This is the updated chart we began to track since Monday:

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The week was characterized by strong swings in indices and individual names; geopolitical tensions intensified following U.S. retaliatory military strikes against targets in Iran in response to attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, this sent global oil benchmarks soaring, with Brent crude jumping over 5% and nearing the $80-per-barrel mark. This spike in energy prices immediately reignited fears regarding persistent inflation, and when combined with Federal Reserve meeting minutes suggesting potential further interest rate hikes, the 10 year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.6%, reaching its highest level since May. Later in the week the U.S. president noted that while he has agreed to continue diplomatic talks, the tentative truce has officially been scrapped; then the market recovered and some oil gains were yielded.

In response to the shifting market landscape, sector performance diverged. The weekly move in the SPX remains constructive, though tech-driven (XLK). Materials (XLB), healthcare (XLV), industrials (XLI), consumer staples (XLP), and utilities (XLU) declined while real estate remained flat with discretionary and real state. Energy performed well; XLE still has a gap to fill at 56.22 and is showing a weekly bullish stochastic crossover, suggesting further upside.

With that said, we’re back to a bullish market driven by tech (XLC as communication sector was largely driven by the rally on META). However, there are divergences in tech that I have been tracking daily in this publication:

Two weeks ago, I highlighted the bullish probabilities for the magnificent seven based on a transparent analysis of volume, back then nobody was bullish on them, but we had the technical case and the support and resistance levels to validate the thesis; MSFT 🎯, GOOG 🎯, AAPL 🎯, TSLA 🎯, AMZN 🎯, and META 🎯 rallied reseting daily timeframes, then we monitored continuation, since some of them have long term weak setups, and in fact GOOG, AMZN and MSFT presented weakness this week.

All that happened in a context where semiconductors are suffering high volatility, also as anticipated from the very day when MU posted its earnings report 🎯, trapping many people who don’t have technical or risk management knowledge.

Among other setups, two weeks ago I highlighted the validity of being long in crypto, BTC and ETH have rallied +6% and +15% respectively 🎯.

A more recent call included the bullish one for NVDA, once our central Weekly Level (CWL) of 195 was conquered 🎯. These assessments have been based on technical indicators transparently described, providing specific price targets and invalidation levels to use as a reference for setting stop losses.

This level of specificity is the hallmark of this publication; it is easy to suggest that crypto or metals might bounce over the course of several months, but providing concrete, actionable levels is where the real value lies.

That level of specificity facilitates transparency. For this week, an invalidated setup was NFLX, a stock that is analyzed below with specific indicators, price levels and scenarios considering the earnings report that is coming next week.

Unlock this objective approach by upgrading to our premium plan. Subscribers gain access to exclusive educational content, Market Intelligence reports, and daily market updates featuring daily support and resistance levels for the SPX for the following trading session.

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Explore the content at smartreversals.com. Zero gut feeling, everything is specific.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

• Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Let’s begin.

SPX: Once Again Dependent on Tech

The index achieved a bullish resolution, hitting our weekly target of 7,566. Looking ahead to next week's outlook and targets, please remain mindful of the significant decline in this specific indicator; it is the primary divergence to monitor, and it is important to note that it is not an oscillator:

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U.S. stocks closed mixed today following a re-escalation in geopolitical tensions. Main market indexes experienced a highly volatile session, initially tumbling before trimming some losses. The Dow Jones fell-1.1%, probably an initial validation of the overheated signals studied for the previous week, the SPX closed slightly negative -0.3%, and the NDX closed +0.3% despite of the selloff in premarket this morning.

SMH Bounced +2%, How is it Possible?

Last night, I shared the SMH chart with subscribers, highlighting a bullish reversal candle at the lower band, an oversold Stochastic indicator, and the open gap above. As I noted, this “COULD trigger a bounce tomorrow”, which is what we saw today.

Was it a smooth bounce? Not at all. The morning selloff was strong, which is precisely why I provided modeled daily levels (bullish above / bearish below) for today. This included not only the standard SPX levels for paid subscribers in our daily edition, but also for QQQ, SMH, NVDA, AMD, MU, QCOM, TSM, and AMAT, allowing subscribers to validate every move using the central daily level (CDL) and the targets around it.

For example:

The Central Daily Level (CDL) for SMH was 578, with the price turning bullish above it and bearish below. At the open (9:32AM), the price recovered this level, triggering a bullish alert for long positions (and invalidating short positions). Furthermore, the index bounced to 589 and consolidated at 10:00 AM before reversing to revisit 578. It respected that level perfectly, subsequently rallying toward 589 and 597. These were all provided as modeled levels last night, where institutional algorithms often react, as we saw today.

Potential Bullish Setup + Central Level Recovered = Confirmation

Last night, I also highlighted NVDA’s bounce from its 200DMA and the importance of 195.5 as today’s CDL. Once the initial resistance at 199 was breached, the price moved to 202, the next modeled level, and closed the day in the green.

Similar accuracy was seen across MU, AVGO, QCOM, AMAT, TSM, and AMD, while the QQQ CDL at 710 served as resistance throughout the entire session.

Today, we will analyze charts for SPX, NDX, SMH, AAPL, NFLX, NVDA, and others, tracking also the high-probability setups posted on Saturday. As noted yesterday, the bearish target for SMH has essentially been reached, while the bullish targets for IBIT, ETHA, GLD had been reached as well.

Everything provided here is specific and transparent. I rely on technicals and specific-modeled levels, not gut feelings or macro projections that leave your capital at risk for months. Upgrade to the paid plan now.

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Tomorrow’s SPX levels are available here. Note how 7,418 acted as precise support and 7476 as resistance today, both were analyzed last night. Levels for QQQ, SMH, NVDA, MU, AMD, AVGO, QCOM, TSM, and the rest of the semiconductor set are also linked below, providing you with objective targets for tomorrow’s session.

Let’s begin.

SPX: On the Edge to Trigger Bearish Momentum

We use daily levels to anticipate short-term moves, weekly levels to navigate price action, and monthly levels to gauge longer-term momentum.

The Central Monthly Level (CML) was touched again today, this is what the chart and levels say:

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The U.S. stock market closed a holiday-shortened week with gains across large-cap indices, sentiment was fueled by a cooler-than-expected June jobs report, which eased immediate fears of aggressive interest rate hikes and encouraged a rotation out of tech and into blue-chip companies.

The Dow Jones reached a new all-time high, gaining 2.0% for the week, the S&P 500 (SPX) rose 1.7% to close at 7,483.24, while the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) added 0.7%; our well expected decline in semiconductors kept the tech-heavy index underperforming.

The Federal Reserve, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, maintains a “higher-for-longer” stance. The federal funds rate remains in the target range of 3.50% to 3.75%, with the next FOMC meeting scheduled for July 28–29, 2026. Current market consensus leans toward a pause in July, and CME FedWatch data shows a roughly 33% probability of a 25-basis-point hike. Despite this, hawkish sentiment is rising; the June “dot plot” indicated that most officials expect rates to end 2026 higher than current levels to combat sticky inflation, which was recently reported at 4.2%.

Last week, I highlighted the high probability of a bearish move in semiconductors, including a bold call for SMH to fall to 587 for a -3.8% decline. That level was reached by Thursday 🎯. I also warned of a bearish reversal for MU when euphoria peaked immediately following its earnings report on June 24. In the same way, the bounce for the Magnificent Seven was considered as a serious possibility including a high probability bounce for MSFT to 388 (+3.4%) 🎯. Six of the the magnificent Seven recovered their Central Weekly Levels (CWL), validating the bullish thesis. The only one that failed to recover its CWL was NVDA, the semiconductor representative of the group.

Central Weekly Levels (CWL) are specific price points modeled and posted every Friday for the week ahead for all securities on our watchlist. These levels provide a clear advantage before the market opens on Monday, allowing you to plan your trades without the stress of assessing charts and distances in real time. The Weekly Compass gathers these levels on Saturdays, analyzes the charts, and provides a blueprint of the week's setups in a single report, allowing you to comfortably formulate your trading plan and risk management strategy over the weekend.

Our watchlist focuses on megacaps and instruments with high daily volume that are fundamentally transparent and varied across sectors, ensuring we can capture opportunities as capital rotates:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

The S/R Levels for next week are here:

Unlock this objective approach by upgrading to the paid plan. Subscribers receive daily SPX levels posted every afternoon, also get access to educational content and Market Intelligence analyses, recent topics include previous IPO moves, SPX and Fed Chair transitions, semiconductor fundamentals, and how to get the most out of the high-probability setups. Everything is available at smartreversals.com. Zero gut feeling. Everything is specific.

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Today’s Agenda

Every Saturday, we dive into chart analysis and target setting using our updated weekly levels:

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

Let’s begin with the High Probability Setups review before the ones for next week:

Last week, I highlighted a bounce in the SPX as a high-probability setup targeting 7,419 (+2%); the index reached a weekly high of 7,540 🎯, BRK.B achieved its extended target of 506 (+1.7%), closing the week at 507.8 (+1.8%) 🎯.

For MSFT we expected a bounce to 388 (+3.4%); the stock surpassed that level, closing at 390 🎯. PLTR, another high-probability setup, targeted 125 for the week (+11%) and closed above at 129 🎯. Consistent with the divergence between the software/Magnificent Seven bounce and semiconductor weakness, I noted high odds for MU to visit 1,083 (-4.5% from June 26); the actual selloff reached -13.8% 🎯. Similarly, for AVGO, our target of 349 (-4.5%) remains a work in progress, as the stock closed at 360.

As mentioned above SMH was expected to fall to 587 for a -3.8% decline. That level was reached by Thursday 🎯.

A trade idea was shared also last week for Bitcoin (BTC) given its technical conditions: a buy targeting 63K with stop loss at 59.4K; BTC has bounced this week +4.5% already, sitting currently at 62.8K 🎯.

The Key message from the intra-week volatility in Semiconductors:

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The macroeconomic environment for the SPX has undergone a severe hawkish turn, fundamentally altering the trajectory of the broader market. The confluence of reaccelerating inflation, driven by geopolitical energy shocks and rising service sector costs, has forced the Federal Reserve to completely abandon any prospect of rate cuts for 2026. Instead, the market must now digest the reality of an active monetary tightening cycle.

The broader market remains entrenched in a rotational phase. The technology sector is facing mounting pressure. We are observing a sequence of weakness that originated in software, transitioned into the Magnificent Seven, and is now sending its first warning ripples through the semiconductor space.

Is this surprising? No. Technical analysis interprets price action, and price action is the ultimate driver of sentiment. IGV and MSFT topped in October when annual levels like $116 and $516 were reached, colliding with the upper band as MACD crosses were printed. PLTR topped in November following a weekly MACD cross and a breach of the upper band. Price action provides the signals, and the narrative follows, not the other way around. That is exactly why my focus remains strictly on price action and technical analysis. For the Magnificent Seven, early in May I anticipated a bullish visit to $317 for AAPL. The stock reached overbought conditions right at that exact level when June started 🎯. GOOG breached its upper weekly bands, and I anticipated a multi-week decline, which is currently unfolding 🎯 consistently below the central monthly level I anticipate for every month. NVDA also breached its upper band, while MSFT found rejection at its 40WMA after completing a bull flag move I also anticipated early in May targeting $459 🎯.

I navigate momentum and call reversals when technicals flag them, always providing clear price levels to validate each thesis, that’s how performance is enhanced.

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Semiconductors: Last Wednesday, I highlighted the elevated risk of chasing the rally when MU posted its earnings results. I presented the specific implications regarding gaps and price formations. The exact levels the SPX, QQQ, and SMH needed to conquer to validate the rally were explicitly posted, and those specific levels acted as precise resistance.

Regarding MU and AMD, I posted fundamental analyses last month documenting their underlying strength, meaning their rallies are well supported. However, their overbought conditions are currently comparable to NVDA, and GOOG in previous months and a consolidation is likely, just be mindful that following such rally consolidations can bring -5% moves in a single day and double digit moves for a couple of weeks (as anticipated for NVDA and GOOG). Therefore, the odds of semiconductors entering a topping/consolidation process are extremely high, as I warned last week.

Other euphorias worth remembering from 2025 and 2026 are: NFLX, META, MSFT, PLTR, GLD, SLV… technicals always pass their bill; anyway my pullback benchmarks for Semis are NVDA and GOOG.

Seasonality adds further pressure to this context. Midterm years are volatile, also the end of June is a particularly bearish season. Theoretically, tech bounces in July, and today we will study the specific technical conditions for each major stock. Some are likely to continue selling off, while others are approaching critical support zones.

The price action in the S&P 500 throughout the week was particularly weak for tech. This was not surprising for subscribers who read my high probability setups last Saturday, which anticipated a bearish move for SMH 🎯 and AMD 🎯 right at the peak of the euphoria. MSFT 🎯 continued falling as the technicals suggested, Gold (GLD 🎯) also expanded its selloff mode, and SPX 🎯 fell despite the Thursday rally.

Among my high probability setups, there were clear reversal signals for financials and oil. This past week simply augmented those reversal conditions, as we will study for JPM and the Dow Jones below.

Subscribe to get the complete technical setups for next week. My analysis is strictly neutral and focused on price action. That is why calling a bullish reversal on March 28 was spot on, just like my target for a bearish reversal in the SPX at 7638, where I notified subscribers that same week that 7620 was enough to consider the bearish reversal zone officially reached. Numbers (price levels I provide) and written analyses always tell the truth, and they are fully verifiable.

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Unlock this objective approach by upgrading to the paid plan. Subscribers also get access to educational content and Market Intelligence analyses, recent topics include previous IPO moves, SPX and Fed Chair transitions, semiconductor fundamentals, and how to get the most out of the high-probability setups. Everything is available at smartreversals.com. Zero gut feeling. Everything is specific.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

• The Heat Rank: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Let’s begin.

SPX: Are the Magnificent Seven Brewing a Tactical Move?

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U.S. equities closed the week with gains, as investors weighed a firm Federal Reserve stance against a landmark interim agreement between the United States and Iran. The S&P 500 advanced 0.9% to 7,500.6.

The Federal Open Market Committee, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, held benchmark rates in the 3.5% to 3.75% range and signaled no near-term intention to ease. The decision briefly rattled markets midweek before equities recovered and pushed higher. In the corporate arena, SpaceX reversed from our $225 level on Tuesday, following a warning sign posted to Subscribers on Monday, the stock closed the week in 185, securing a valuation of $2.4 trillion.

I am posting daily levels for SpaceX exclusively for paid subscribers. If you’re watching this stock, upgrade to the paid plan to get access now.

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Across asset classes, the U.S. Dollar Index held near a one-year high of 100.7 as currency markets absorbed the rate outlook. Investors and traders must consider a multi-month bullish move as the setup for DXY suggests. Gold logged a third consecutive weekly decline, trading between $4,150 and $4,172 per ounce expectation for a bounce occurred reaching the target, but a stronger USD makes gold more expensive to buy, which causes demand and prices to drop.

Crude settled near $76.5, with supply concerns offset by progress on the geopolitical front. Looking ahead, the focus shifts to the PCE price index, final Q1 GDP figures, and earnings from Micron Technology (MU) and FedEx (FDX).

High Probability Setups

Each week, I assess the technical conditions for a set of megacaps and high-volume assets available in the options market. The analysis is presented as a blueprint with specific targets and invalidation levels to protect capital.

If you follow assets like SPX, QQQ, NVDA, and TSLA, this publication covers charts and levels for all of them across three posts per week. The same applies if you prefer MSFT, AAPL, IBIT, and GOOG, to name a few.

Since the watchlist spans different sectors, LLY, WMT, JPM, V, IWM, and more, you can also rotate your focus toward the setups most likely to reach their targets.

This creates a consistent roadmap for both long-term investors and active traders. We have tracked multi-week moves in AAPL, LLY, GOOG, Bitcoin for investors, and setups with a 4% weekly move for traders.

With that said: the bullish targets for JPM 🎯, GLD 🎯, WMT 🎯, AMZN 🎯, META 🎯, IBIT 🎯, and GOOG 🎯 were all reached during the week, and so was the bearish target for LLY 🎯. The bullish reversal for MSFT did not play out, nor did the bearish one for AAPL, that puts the week at an 80% success rate for the setups I highlighted as more likely to reach their targets. Anyway, subscribers focused on QQQ or SPY also saw those securities reach the specific bullish targets posted in last week’s Blueprint while subscribers who like TSLA, they saw the loss of the key weekly level.

Unlock this objective approach by upgrading to the paid plan. Subscribers also get access to educational content and Market Intelligence analysis, recent topics include previous IPO moves, SPX history and Fed Chair transitions, semiconductor fundamentals, and how to get the most out of the high-probability setups. Everything is available at smartreversals.com.

Here are the links to the latest publications, essential reading for both investors and traders looking to navigate this market with confidence:

Unlock all the content with the paid subscription.

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Today, we will analyze the market internals that are flagging caution, including the charts, price targets and most likely moves for the upcoming week.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

• The Heat Rank: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Let’s begin.

SPX Warns Below the Surface; Dow Jones Signals Caution

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U.S. equities closed a volatile week with broad gains. Falling oil prices followed geopolitical headlines, and the blockbuster SPCX IPO stabilized the tape after a -4% sharp selloff in the SPX and -6% in the NDX. The S&P 500 bounced and closed positive +0.65% for the week. the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) added 2.3%, and the Dow Jones climbed 0.7%. The week was not clean, the S&P 500 and the Dow swung wildly mid-week on optimism about the conflict with Iran. Small caps joined the late rally with the Russell 2000 advanced 4.0% during the week.

SpaceX (SPCX): The company sold 555.6 million shares at $135 each, a $1.77 trillion valuation. The stock opened at $150, an 11.0% premium, and held 20.0% above the offer price through its debut. The the soft action shows declines in other mega-cap tech names as investors sell what they own to fund what they want. See the weekly heat map below with the Magnificent Seven declining while the broad SPX was green. Only TSLA made it for a bounce and semiconductors held firm.

I wrote a special study about IPOs, the move just observed for SPCX is not new, unlock the study focused on technical moves, seems that SpaceX is moving like two of them already.

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Macro: Consumer data improved at the margin. The preliminary June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index rose to 48.9 from 44.8 in May, helped by lower gasoline prices early in the month. Inflation concerns remain elevated. The setup into next week is constructive but earned session by session.

Setups Blueprint: AAPL, MSFT, SPX, AVGO, GLD declined as expected this week🎯, and VXX bounced as expected 🎯, all of them averaging a +5% gain 🎯🎯🎯. With that said, I reframed a standard industry momentum map to a proprietary Heat Rank where I set the technical conditions from overbought to oversold and the reversal risk for all the securities in our watchlist. It has been useful to set a blueprint where every subscriber see the stocks better classified and navigated the ones highlighted or subscribers’ preferred stocks. This applies for the following watchlist:

• Indices & ETFs: SPX/SPY, NDX/QQQ, DJI/DIA, IWM, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX, ETHA, IBIT

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

If you invest or trade one or some of them, they are always analyzed in my publications including bullish/bearish conditions, specific price targets, and invalidation levels. Subscribe to the paid plan and unlock it.

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Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts + levels for Indices, ETFs, Volatility, Breadth, and Crypto.

• The Heat Rank: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

Let’s begin.

SPX: Initial Bearish Target Nailed - Elliot Wave Assessment for Continuation

Last Friday, I posted with the weekly S/R levels the most likely pullback destination using the Fibonacci retracement approach, with $7,311 as the confluence zone with our support levels. The thesis proved accurate, the current bounce could still be part of a pullback considering the recent lack of conviction. Let’s examine reversal zones from an Elliott Wave perspective, again combined with our S/R levels to increase reliability, the arrows in the chart highlight the likely destination zone for this move:

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U.S. equities closed the first week of June with steep losses as a stalled technology rally and rising interest rate expectations pressured the market. A much stronger than expected May labor report triggered the reversal from overbought levels called during the recent days (and reinforced on Thursday afternoon to paid subscribers). The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs last month, far above forecasts of 85,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, and upward revisions to March and April added another 93,000 jobs. The data erased expectations for near-term rate cuts. Investors sold government bonds aggressively, pushing Treasury yields higher and strengthening the dollar. Markets are now fully pricing a quarter-point rate increase by year-end under new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.

Higher energy costs and rising borrowing rates triggered a sharp rotation out of A.I. Sectors told a risk-off story during the week. Money leaned during the week toward energy (XLE +2.5%), healthcare (XLV +2.4%) and real estate (XLRE +1.6%), a defensive and value tilt rather than a chase for high-beta growth. Healthcare is testing monthly resistance near 153.0 with indecision, and real estate recovered both its weekly and monthly lines ($44). Meanwhile technology (XLK -5.6%) and discretionary (XLY -5.0% ) lost both their central weekly and central monthly levels, a major reversal sign triggered between January and February of this year ahead of March selloff. Communications followed in the ranking of weekly losers (XLC -3.5%).

This Reversal was Expected

The stock market has been in overheated conditions during the last two weeks, however, the market was fueled by geopolitical optimism and our key annual target had not been reached. On Wednesday, I wrote in the market update that my $7,638 target could be considered reached after the $7,620 weekly mark had been touched on Tuesday. $7,638 has been in my charts since the beginning of the year, and was updated as bullish target a month ago considering a specific weekly setup action studied for paid subscribers. The thesis is being validated 🎯.

When I establish a target for a weekly, monthly, or annual timeframe, I rely strictly on: 1) Technical indicators (and overbought conditions were flagged in the weekly chart, much more reliable than daily conditions), 2) price action patterns (Recent indecision at the highs), and 3) support and resistance levels modeled well ahead of price action.

The accuracy includes individual names, over a month ago I highlighted 317 as the bullish target for AAPL, the recent high before printing the current weekly shooting star pattern was 316.9.

My charts include annual levels that you see consistently week by week, paid subscribers saw the rejection that NVDA suffered at the 239 zone 🎯, not to mention the precision this week for SMH, reversing at 642, the same annual level 🎯.

Are annual levels hard resistance always? no, they aren’t, for that reason I highlight the relevance when it applies, and these cases involved overheated conditions considering my set of technical indicators that is transparently explained in every publication for each chart, making the content insightful and educational like no other.

🎯 The setups highlighted last weekend with high probability included bearish reversals for AAPL, SMH, IWM, and AMD, a bullish reversal for VXX, and bullish setups for MSFT and PLTR, which moved to their targets on Monday before sharp reversals (highlighting the importance of having S/R levels calculated in advance to set targets). That is a total of 7 setups with the correct direction 🎯 and 2 setups that did not deliver the bullish expectation: META and GLD. Their respective references to set stop losses and protect capital were 0.6% and 0.9% below the price.

In total, 7 of 9 or 77% of the setups highlighted were correct. The gain of the accurate setups averaged 4% including bullish and bearish targets. 🎯

Are you always following SPX, NDX, GLD, NVDA, TSLA or other securities? Good news for you, their setups are ALWAYS studied with targets and invalidation levels in every publication, I just highlight some setups for reasons described for each case.

Subscribe to get immediate access to our comprehensive analysis of the US indices, the Magnificent Seven, Bitcoin, core ETFs like SPY, QQQ, IWM, SMH, and GLD, and key mega-caps. All setups are summarized into a clear blueprint featuring structural bullish or bearish probabilities, precise price targets, and the exact levels needed to protect your capital. Charts included for further transparency of the considerations.

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Today’s Agenda:

• SPX and Market Context: Includes Volatility, Breadth, NDX, DJI, SMH, IWM, Crypto.

• Heat Rank (New Feature): All the securities in our watchlist ranked from overbought to oversold conditions.

• Deep Dive (charts) into Individual Names: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, TSLA, NVDA, META, AMZN, AMD, WMT, LLY, BRK.B, and GLD.

• Setups Blueprint: Bullish/bearish conditions for each name, price target, risk control price for the watchlist, included the ones listed above, and also NFLX, PLTR, V, AVGO, XOM, VXX, and more.

Let’s begin with our core index,

SPX - Wall Hit Printing Reliable Reversal Setup

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The stock market has entered a highly choppy environment characterized by rapid, day-to-day reversals. For instance, NVDA rallied 6.2% on Monday only to reverse -3.2% today. Similarly, IWM posted a +0.93% bullish move yesterday but is down -1.3% today. These sudden, signal-free shifts illustrate just how volatile conditions can get. As we observed during the reversals of February 2025 and February 2026, this type of price action requires extreme caution.

Keep in mind that this choppy price action is triggering right after the S&P 500 neared $7638, the target I updated a couple of weeks ago. With this week’s recent high tagging $7,620 and then losing the weekly level, we can consider that target reached.

Today, we will focus on updating the setups anticipated for this week, AAPL reversed as anticipated last weekend breaching the already bearish target of $308 (-1.3%) 🎯, same IWM crossing below the bearish target of $287 (-0.9%) 🎯, and AMZN reversing as expected breaching the third bearish layer of 250.9 (-7.3%) 🎯. Meanwhile, MSFT and PLTR rapidly neared their bullish targets on Monday 🎯 before quickly reversing.

We will also analyze the anticipated bullish reversal volatility (VIX), up +4.4% this week already.

This edition is dedicated to managing high-probability setups and practicing strict risk management using our weekly support and resistance levels as reference points. We will also cover the daily SPX levels for tomorrow, alongside deep dives into IWM, the VIX, GLD, the Magnificent Seven (TSLA, NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, META), and observations for other setups like AVGO, PLTR, SMH and Bitcoin.

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Let’s stay cautious, navigate these setups carefully, and begin our analysis with the technical charts and price levels to watch.

SPX and Volatility

The S&P 500 experienced a breakdown in short-term market architecture as price action slipped beneath critical confluent zones as follows:

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U.S. equity markets closed the holiday-shortened week of May 25 with meaningful gains and new record highs across the major indices. The S&P 500 added 1.4% to settle at 7,580, completing

its 9th consecutive weekly advance. The Nasdaq 100 led the tape with a 2.9% gain to close at 30,333. The Dow added 0.9% to finish at 51,032, while the Russell 2000 gained 1.7% to close at 2,919. Investors rotated into growth through the week validating bullish setups anticipated in this publication last week for AAPL (+4.1%), MSFT (+7.5%), TSLA (+3.4%), and LLY (+6.1%). All of them reaching levels anticipated one week before 🎯🎯🎯🎯.

Technology drove the bulk of the advance, with artificial intelligence spending expectations continuing to set the tone. Micron crossed a historic threshold this week, surpassing $1 trillion in market capitalization. Computer hardware surged late in the week after DELL and NTAP both delivered earnings that exceeded expectations, lifting the infrastructure group broadly. On the software side, MSFT provided support after announcing an upcoming AI-native coding framework. ORCL and SNOW each posted double-digit percentage gains on the week.

Crude oil fell 9.5% to settle at $87.7 per barrel after reports emerged of a provisional 60-day ceasefire framework between the United States and Iran targeting the Strait of Hormuz. The energy drop pulled Treasury yields lower, with the 10-year settling at 4.45%. Core inflation came in at 3.3% year-over-year for April, keeping the Federal Reserve in a wait-and-see posture on rate cuts. Gold faced pressure and settled at $4,560 per ounce after bouncing from a key support line studied below in the paid content.

Key Economic Events Next Week:

Next week will be crucial for two reasons:

1. The SPX has to prove the latest weekly move holding this price zone, and specifically its central weekly level that differentiates between bullish momentum and consolidation or bearish reversal if it is breached. For the complete set of levels included NDX, QQQ, SPY, DIA, all the Magnificent Seven, Futures, and other megacaps make sure to read the updated levels posted yesterday after the close, they have audio content guiding about the benefits of using levels.

2. The Semiconductor Giants must hold the line and keep the current valuations, price action is overbought across the board: MU, AMD, INTC, TXN, AVGO, and others are overextended, and NVDA is already in pullback mode after being overbought. We will study today, as usual, SMH, NVDA, AMD and AVGO in the paid content below. Only one has a likely solid bullish setup, the others look toppy.

Sell in May and Goo Away?

There are widespread overextensions and open gaps to consider, not only in Semiconductors but across the SPX, NDX, and IWM. June is historically a strong month (finishing green in 9 out of the last 10 years with the sole exception of 2022, which was a midterm election year). We will soon see if June continues this dominant uptrend, or if it validates the alternative statistic marking it as the worst performing month of a midterm cycle.

The best game plan: Reading the technical indicators as we do permanently, stay prepared, use our levels for validation, and carefully consider the potential of individual names as we do every week with the individual setups mapped for our watchlist focused on high volume and market cap names. Subscribe and unlock all the content and publications posted every week.

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Today’s Agenda:

• SPX and Market Context: Includes Volatility, Participacion, NDX, DJI, ETFs, Crypto.

• Heat Rank (New Feature): All the securities in our watchlist ranked from overbought to oversold conditions.

• Deep Dive into Individual Names: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, TSLA, NVDA, META, AMZN, AMD, AVGO, V, LLY, GLD, and PLTR.

• Setups Blueprint: Bullish/bearish conditions for each name, price target, risk control price for the watchlist. I highlight some of them and you can choose the ones you prefer.

Let’s begin,

SPX: Another Early Warning or Finally a Consolidation Begins?

Indecision + High Volume + Overbought conditions are usually meaningful, these are the points to consider and indicators to track:

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The stock market has begun flashing consolidation signals over the last two weeks. The first warning arrived last week when the S&P 500 printed a shooting star on the weekly timeframe, while the NASDAQ posted indecisive candles just above essential resistance lines. This past Friday, the indices followed up by printing indecisive price action at overbought conditions in the case of the Dow Jones. This type of indecisive price action suggests that a consolidation phase lies ahead. Ultimately, this has been an exceptionally powerful rally, but now the market must digest its recent gains.

At the same time, we are seeing breaking positive news over the weekend regarding a potential peace deal between the United States and Iran. To navigate these developments, today’s analysis will focus heavily on technical conditions and our central weekly levels, which we always use as our primary structural tool to validate market direction: remaining above these levels confirms valid bullish momentum, while breaking below them shifts the bias to bearish momentum. While several structural charts are signaling near-term exhaustion and a healthy consolidation ahead, we will use the levels for the week ahead to objectively validate these technical signals. Our primary focus is to blend the potential geopolitical good news with strict price criteria, identifying the exact levels that must be maintained or recovered to ensure a sustainable bullish extension.

Different conditions and opportunities in our watchlist

The core question for this week centers on the flip of relative weakness: assets like NVDA, AVGO, MSFT, and GOOG are already showing vulnerability relative to their support and resistance levels, not to mention COST, and WMT. They serve as case studies for the upcoming sessions. If a peace-deal rally takes hold on Tuesday, will the upward momentum be powerful enough to help these specific names recover their lost structural levels? Will the potential deal fuel stocks like META, PLTR, NFLX, V or BRK.B that are showing constructive price action, forming a potential bullish reversal? And lastly, will the news keep XOM below its momentum line, or is it a potential long if the deal reverses?

Meanwhile, for the securities that are showing exhaustion signals yet to be confirmed and are likely to open above their central weekly levels (SPX, NDX, DIA, AAPL, AMZN, IWM, SMH), the specific lines they must defend are referenced in the charts below with their upside targets resting above the central weekly level. Those upside targets are watch out zones, since technical indicators provide advance warnings that, sooner or later, play out in the price action when a target rejects the price and central levels are lost.

TSLA, BTC, LLY, JPM are in a different cluster of securities that are worth studying for both traders and long term investors.

Today, we will break down the precise conditions for each security, highlighting the essential price levels that must hold to maintain a bullish posture, as well as the key levels that lagging assets need to reclaim. As an early indicator, Bitcoin is already reacting constructively to the headlines. Serving as a 24/7 thermometer for risk-on appetite.

Every asset features unique technical conditions and specific price levels that are analyzed individually using charts and key data points. This gives you a comprehensive view of both bullish and bearish opportunities, all consolidated into a single blueprint or dashboard to help you make informed decisions with clear targets and risk management levels.

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Let’s begin the analysis.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, SMH, Volatility, Breadth, and Bitcoin.

• The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Mega Caps including TSLA, NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, META, PLTR, AVGO, JPM, and more.

Market Context

During the week, several tech names posted bearish moves such as NVDA, AVGO, and GOOG to name the biggest ones, while stocks in defensive sectors showed green for the 5 day period as presented here:

Breadth has improved, and it’s worth noting that Utilities and Healthcare as defensive sectors outperformed tech. Let’s study the trend, being mindful of internals and individual names that are showing solid setups.

SPX - Will the Good News Invalidate Exhaustion Signals?

It is a well-known market adage that bottoms are events, while tops are processes. What we are currently observing is a localized increase in volatility and choppy price action, which is a standard characteristic of broader consolidation processes. These are the bullish and bearish facts, with the indicators to monitor next week:

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