During the last months, the software stocks have been impacted in a significant way, but today they’re signaling reversals, the question is: Is that sustainable? Is this an entry point?

Price action is our pillar for technical analysis, and as we always do, understanding the fundamentals behind the chart is essential, today we cover eight of those companies across four roles. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and CrowdStrike (CRWD) anchor the security stack that every other workflow depends on. ServiceNow (NOW), SAP, and Oracle (ORCL) run the systems of record for workflow, resource planning, and database that touch nearly every Global 2000 balance sheet. Adobe (ADBE) and Salesforce (CRM) own the creative supply chain and the customer relationship on a scale no new entrant can easily replicate. Palantir (PLTR) is the pure play on institutional decision making at the point where data meets operational reality.

Five concepts run through every section that follows:

• Data Gravity describes the pull that accumulated customer data exerts on every new workload, making it cheaper to add capability to an existing platform than to migrate away from it.

• Switching Inertia describes the operational cost of ripping out a system that thousands of users, integrations, and compliance processes already depend on.

• Net Retention Rate measures whether existing customers are spending more over time, which is the cleanest single signal of whether a platform is still the center of gravity for its category.

• Remaining Performance Obligations measure contracted but unrecognized revenue, which indicates how much future demand has already been committed by customers in writing.

• Platformization, the process of consolidating multiple point products onto a single vendor, is the operating model that turns a collection of tools into a toll booth. Agentic AI is the shift from humans clicking through software to software taking actions on behalf of humans, which raises the stakes on every part of the stack below.

The revenue signal that these moats are holding shows up in the backlog disclosures. Oracle carries $553 billion in Remaining Performance Obligations, up 325% year on year. SAP reports cloud backlog of €77 billion, up 30%. Palo Alto Networks shows RPO of $16.0 billion, up 23%. ServiceNow closed 244 deals above $1 million in a single quarter. Palantir closed a record $4.3 billion in total contract value in Q4 alone. These numbers suggest this is an industry where customers are signing multi-year commitments at an accelerating pace because they have concluded that consolidating spend with a small number of trusted platforms is the safest way to deploy AI without losing control of it.

Net Retention Rate tells the same story from the installed base. Palantir reported a dollar-based net retention rate of 139% in Q4. CrowdStrike holds gross retention around 97% with dollar-based net retention of 115%. These are figures that describe customers who are not only staying but spending materially more each year. That is what Platformization produces when it works. A customer lands with one module, the vendor delivers, the customer adds a second module because the integration is already there, and within three years the vendor is embedded across the enterprise and the relationship has compounded into a consumption curve rather than a license renewal. The final piece of the structural case is the shift to Agentic AI. The incumbent platforms are not defending the old interface. They are building the next one. Salesforce has sold more than 29,000 Agentforce deals and driven the platform to $800 million in ARR in fifteen months. ServiceNow has Now Assist ACV above $600 million and is targeting $1 billion by the end of 2026. Palo Alto Networks is running Prisma AIRS at triple the customer count quarter over quarter. Palantir’s AIP is the reason U.S. commercial revenue grew 137% in Q4. The agents are not an external threat to these platforms. They are the new product line, sold to the same customers, billed through the same contracts, and grounded in the same proprietary data. The toll booth is not being removed. The toll is being collected on a newer road.

Eight Companies - Four Roles - One Stack

Security comes first because every other workflow depends on it. Operations anchors the systems of record that hold the chart of accounts, the service catalog, and the supplier contracts. The creative and front office layer owns the customer relationship and the content pipeline that surrounds it. The intelligence layer is a single name because, at institutional scale, there is only one pure play on decision making at the point where data meets operational reality. What follows is the case on each platform individually, the forward financial profile that anchors it, and the single risk that would most meaningfully change the thesis.

PANW (Palo Alto Networks)

Palo Alto Networks is the broadest cybersecurity platform in the market and the clearest example of Platformization in security. The company serves more than 85,000 customers in 150 countries, including 77 percent of the Global 2000, and has spent the last five years converting itself from a firewall vendor into an end-to-end platform that spans network security, cloud security, and the security operations center. In Q2 FY 2026 that strategy produced Next-Generation Security ARR of $6.33 billion, up 33 percent year over year, and SASE ARR above $1.5 billion growing 40 percent, which makes the company the fastest-growing SASE provider at scale.

The February 2026 close of the $25 billion CyberArk acquisition added a full platform of Identity Security capabilities at the moment when identity became the central attack surface for enterprise AI. The Chronosphere deal extended the portfolio into observability. Together these acquisitions pushed the longer-term NGS ARR target to $20 billion by FY 2030, which implies a five-year compound annual growth rate near 29%.

→Again, 29% compound annual growth rate (we have studied the relevance of growth). Platformization momentum is holding in the underlying metrics. The company added roughly 110 net new platformizations in Q2 to reach a total above 1,550, and XSIAM crossed $500 million in ARR with more than 600 customers each paying on average close to $1 million. Non-GAAP operating margin reached 30.3 percent, the third consecutive quarter above 30 percent, and Remaining Performance Obligations grew 23 percent to $16.0 billion.

KEY RISK

Chinese authorities notified domestic firms earlier this year to halt use of cybersecurity software from select U.S. and Israeli vendors, including Palo Alto Networks. Direct China exposure is estimated in the low single digits of revenue, but the broader message matters. Geopolitical pressure is lengthening approval cycles across several international regions, and CyberArk and Chronosphere integration will weigh on near-term free cash flow margins, with FY 2026 FCF margin trimmed to 37 percent, before the platform benefits compound toward the 40 percent target by FY 2028.

Subscribe now

We are moving forward with the chart analysis and price targets for PANW, CRWD, PLTR, ORCL, NOW, SAP, ADBE, alongside individual deep dives for each company and the stock market update featuring tomorrow’s daily levels.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND PRICE TARGETS:

Read more

We are in Year 1 of the largest infrastructure buildout in human history. This report examines where the money is going, which eight companies are positioned to capture the return, and how investors should think about the risk embedded in the current AI spending cycle.

Today’s edition features a deep dive into the fundamentals of the tech megacaps: NVDA, AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, META, AMZN, AVGO, and TSLA. We assess two distinct scenarios that separate a speculative bubble from a major technological development, including the key milestones and risks for each company.

This analysis is a must-read for both long-term investors and active traders. The Stock Market Update continues following this study.

The Central Question

If $600 billion per year is being poured into AI infrastructure by 2027, where is that money actually generating immediate profit? The answer reveals the structure of the entire investment thesis and determines which companies belong in a long-duration AI portfolio today.

The Capital Gap: Spending Vs. Monetization

The gap between AI infrastructure spending and AI-generated revenue is the defining risk of this investment cycle. Companies are spending hundreds of billions today to build capacity for a demand curve that will materialize over the next three to five years. The CFOs authorizing this spending are not betting that monetization will catch up immediately. They are betting that if they do not spend this money now, they will lose the ability to compete in the 2030s entirely.

This creates a specific investment dynamic. The companies spending the most capital today, Amazon at $200 billion, Alphabet at $175 to $185 billion, Meta at $115 to $135 billion, and Microsoft at an accelerating pace, are compressing their near-term free cash flow to build infrastructure that will generate revenue in Year 2 and Year 3. The two companies capturing the majority of that spending as immediate high-margin revenue today are NVIDIA and Broadcom.

The industry is in Year 1 of this cycle. The spending decisions made in 2025 and 2026 will determine which platforms dominate AI computing infrastructure through the early 2030s. Eight companies occupy eight distinct positions within this structure.

Eight Companies, One Ecosystem

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) | The Infrastructure Tax Collector

Read more

Beyond the silicon and data centers, the winners of application and category dominance are separating themselves with remarkable speed. Palantir has effectively cornered the enterprise AI market, delivering explosive revenue growth fueled by a surge in U.S. commercial adoption that proves operational AI is no longer a concept but a requirement. Simultaneously, Eli Lilly has redefined the pharmaceutical landscape, riding its metabolic franchise to establish a commanding lead in one of the decade’s most lucrative markets.

As the market navigates this complex interplay of record spending and exponential growth, distinguishing between durable signals and noise is critical. We analyze how Amazon’s efficiency gains, Google’s Gemini integration, Palantir’s commercial scaling, and Lilly’s pipeline expansion will shape their trajectories. Discover the full fundamental breakdown below, as part of our disciplined approach of studying a constant list of megacaps, being aware of their financials, risks, opportunities and the general context behind the technical charts.

Navigating Precision Targets in a Choppy Tape 🎯

We are navigating another week of intense, choppy price action. The fact that several of my high-probability setups were validated and reached their targets in two days, only to reverse shortly after, is a testament to the current market environment. I have highlighted the power of individual names since November in a context where the S&P 500 is going nowhere. This is the individual performance of the setups anticipated in the weekly compass 🎯:

• MSFT: I identified a bullish target of $423.8, representing a potential +7% move versus Friday. This target was reached precisely on Tuesday, followed by an immediate reversal. In this choppy market, I have consistently warned that if price action fails to hold above a resistance level, it is prudent to lock in gains. For those who executed the setup since Monday using the trigger ($408 as entry point), 5.7% was the gain before the quick retreat.

• AVGO: This was one of the cleanest moves of the week. Posted on Friday afternoon, Broadcom rallied during Monday’s session to hit our $349.4 target, securing a 5% gain.

• IWM: This was a successful bullish setup. Our target of $268 was hit Tuesday morning and revisited Wednesday before fading again.

• GOOG: The bearish setup is playing out. Since my Friday post, the stock has moved lower toward our target. The current 3.64% move has been clean and consistent and can be considered successful given the dimension of the move.

• PLTR: Our bearish outlook remains in progress. After an early attempt to recover its Central Weekly Level, the stock has turned lower. As a reminder, we maintain stop-losses above the central level for shorts and below it for longs. The bearish thesis remains.

• TSLA: I highlighted during the weekend that I was picking just some of the setups of the blueprint considering the high volatility (VIX), while presenting other bullish setups like Tesla and Nvidia, currently the stock reached its $430 target for a +4.7% move.

• NVDA: With a bullish target of $193.5 for a +4.3% move, this setup was presented in the blueprint and played out.

• AMZN: Bearish as expected, similar to NFLX, Bitcoin, and Ethereum

• COST and BRK.B faded their bullish moves and they are currently trying to recover their Central Weekly Level with indecisive candles.

Indices are trapped in a range, but the real moves are happening under the surface: Since November, the broad market has gone nowhere, yet individual setups continue to deliver. Upgrade to Premium to access my full weekend blueprint, featuring technical analysis and the exact price levels you need for targets and stop-losses across our entire watchlist. Don't trade the noise; trade the setups and modeled price levels.

Subscribe now

Remember the three educational publications I posted during recent weeks about managing the high probability setups, upgrade your subscription and unlock this valuable guides:

• Maximizing Returns with High-Probability Setups

• Anatomy of a Winning Trade

• Turning Technical Tools into Results (Using SmartReversals Publications)

Today’s agenda:

• Fundamental Analysis for:

  • Amazon (AMZN)

  • Google (GOOG)

  • Palantir (PLTR)

  • Eli Lilly (LLY)

• Stock Market Update

• Technical observations and potential reversals

Navigating the Recent Selloff: Drivers, Data, and the Road Ahead

Read more

Beyond the hardware layer, the winners in application deployment are emerging with startling velocity. Palantir has shattered expectations with a 70% revenue surge, fueled by U.S. enterprises aggressively operationalizing its AIP system. Simultaneously, AAPL has stunned skeptics with a 38% sales rebound in China, riding a supercycle driven by iPhone 17 demand and the strategic integration of Google Gemini. The market is no longer moving in unison; it is splitting into those building the engines of AI and those successfully selling the fuel.

To navigate this complex environment, investors need more than just headlines, they need the fundamental data that separates durable signals from noise. Discover the full breakdown of these critical developments, including detailed margin analysis and forward-looking risks, remember that you can visit all the fundamental library at Smartreversals.com in the fundamental analysis section.

80% Accuracy for this Week

Before we proceed, it is worth noting that the insights shared in the Weekly Compass and the S/R Levels publications are playing out with high precision. On Friday afternoon, I flagged solid bullish setups for JPM and BRK.B; they have rallied over +4% and +5% respectively this week. Conversely, my bearish outlook for SMH (-4.7% so far this week) and QQQ (-2.2%) has been validated.

In Saturday’s expanded analysis, I provided a blueprint for more high-probability setups. My bullish expectations for AAPL (so far over +6%) and WMT (+7%) are currently delivering strong results, reinforcing the importance of picking individual winners in a choppy market. On the bearish side, our setups for IBIT (Bitcoin) has also completed, with IBIT alone dropping -12%.

To date, 8 out of 10 high-probability setups posted this week, complete with specific price targets and invalidation points, have been accurate. Only one, META, was invalidated, while another remains a work in progress. This brings our weekly accuracy to 80%, maintaining a cumulative success rate of over 77% since November. This level of transparent, professional-grade price modeling makes a subscription a total no-brainer.

Subscribe now

I am transparent about the technical indicators selected for each security showing the charts every week, a truly experienced trader knows exactly which tools to select for a specific setup.

Beyond indicators, I provide specific invalidation levels, primary targets, and extended targets (to trail stops or to lock profits). I also include educational material on how to trail your stops using these price levels as a tactical reference for your decision-making. Very important, I update the fundamental analysis every quarter, incorporating the latest earnings reports and our proprietary research.

So, let’s dive into the fundamental updates for key companies in our watchlist. This is the agenda for today:

• TSLA

• AAPL

• MSFT

• META

• Conclusions & Market Observations regarding the current volatility

Give a gift subscription

Let’s begin.

The Car Business Shrinks, but Tesla Spending Hits Record Highs

TSLA is aggressively migrating from its roots as an electric vehicle manufacturer to become a leader in artificial intelligence and robotics. While the automotive segment remains its primary revenue driver generating approximately $69.5 billion in 2025 despite a 10% year-over-year decline the company is strategically shifting focus toward high-margin growth areas like energy storage, autonomous driving, and humanoid robotics. The Energy Generation and Storage segment is expanding rapidly, with revenues rising 27% to nearly $12.8 billion in 2025, fueled by record deployments of its utility-scale Megapack and residential Powerwall systems. While the company faces volume pressures in its core automotive business, rapid expansion in its energy and services divisions helped drive fourth quarter results that exceeded analyst expectations. The company reported Q4 adjusted earnings per share of $0.50, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.45 despite a 17% year-over-year decline.

Tesla's future roadmap is defined by four pillars:

Read more

First of all, I wish a Merry Christmas to those who celebrate it. I hope you enjoy a wonderful time tomorrow with your loved ones.

Last Saturday, I posted nine high-probability setups in the premium section. So far this week, eight of them are moving in the expected direction. For example, NVDA is currently up +4.5% for the week, and SMH has gained +2.3%. PLTR neared a +3.5% move before retracing.

These high-probability setups are focused on mega-cap stocks which I analyze from a fundamental perspective as well. Crucially, each setup includes a clear invalidation level, allowing you to set protection against unexpected moves. This actionable research significantly elevates the value for paid subscribers, not to mention the accuracy rate, which stands at 8 out of 9 this week (or only one invalidated) and 78% over the last four weeks. Don’t think twice: Subscribe to the Premium Plan today, or gift a subscription to someone you know who loves the stock market or crypto space!

Subscribe now

This publication consistently analyzes the following securities to provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Give a gift subscription

As mentioned, I focus on studying large-cap and mega-cap companies, primarily those listed in the S&P 500. My research covers deep fundamental analysis, and these insights generally remain valid for at least a quarter. All previous reports are always available in the Fundamental Library (access here).

Today, we will examine the fundamentals and technical charts for AVGO (Broadcom), MU (Micron), and ORCL (Oracle).

Following that analysis, we will review the SPX and Volatility. Finally, I will break down TSLA and AAPL, which currently present setups I want to detail for you, as they suggest opportunities to monetize the price action.

Refer a friend

Let’s begin.

Beyond the Chips: The Infrastructure Triad Defining the Next Supercycle

As the “AI Supercycle” extends into 2026, the market is transitioning from a phase of discovery to one of massive logistical execution. Demand for compute capacity has outstripped supply, creating a landscape where ownership of the critical bottlenecks is the only viable investment strategy. Wall Street consensus has identified five key technologies that will define this year: GPUs, Custom Silicon, High Bandwidth Memory, Sovereign Cloud, and Advanced Networking. Broadcom, Micron, and Oracle control the latter four.

We will cover the financial reality behind the supply shortages. We dissect Micron’s move to HBM3E and its resulting margin explosion, Broadcom’s ability to command premium pricing for its custom accelerators, and Oracle’s aggressive leverage of its balance sheet to capture the overflowing demand for AI training clusters. These firms are not merely riding a wave; they are engineering the dams that capture the value of global capital spending.

The question is no longer if AI will grow more, but which companies possess the operational leverage to monetize it. By stripping away the narrative and focusing on backlog durability, free cash flow conversion, and margin resilience, this fundamental analysis aims to determine if Broadcom, Micron, and Oracle are indeed good-positioned equities to capture the efficiency phase of the AI revolution.

Read more

The market is undergoing a normal consolidation following the solid rally observed last week, a bounce considered in this publication. In today’s edition, we dive into three crucial topics:

1. Fundamental and Technical Deep Dive for NVDA, MRVL, and INTC.

2. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Bitcoin Update.

3. Key observations validating the bullish takes mentioned last Saturday.

Spoiler Alert: My bullish takes are being validated! Bitcoin is up +2.7% for the week so far, Silver SLV is up +3.6%, TSLA is up +3.8%, and SMH is up +3.4%. These were among my ‘hot picks’ for high-probability setups last Saturday (click here for the complete analysis). Unlock all the premium content with clear actionable ideas, risk management references now!

Subscribe now

Let’s begin with the fundamental and technical deep dive, there has been so much noise about Nvidia, let’s study the facts.

NVDA, MRVL, INTC: Deep Dive and Price Targets

The artificial intelligence revolution has transitioned from a phase of theoretical promise to one of industrial scale construction. These three companies collectively define the modern AI data center.

Today, we scrutinize the operational engines driving three divergent paths in the chip sector, focusing on their interdependence and pricing power as the market matures. We analyze Nvidia, dissecting how it manages the complex supply chain and the Blackwell ramp to defend its margins amid soaring demand. We evaluate Marvell’s strategic portfolio shift from legacy carrier businesses toward high margin custom silicon and optical interconnects. Finally, we examine Intel, the fallen industrial icon attempting to one of the most complex turnarounds in corporate history, by scrutinizing whether its massive capital bet on the foundry business shows any early signs of economic viability against a backdrop of shrinking market share. This analysis moves includes stock performance with the operational and economic realities shaping these firms.

Subscribe now

Discover which of these infrastructure giants possesses the operational leverage to turn today’s record capital spending into tomorrow’s sustained shareholder returns. Read the full analysis for a disciplined audit of the AI hardware triad.

Read more

The Trillion-Dollar Chases: Health, AI, and the Future of Commerce

Today’s deep fundamental analysis examines three companies at critical inflection points, each pursuing distinct pathways toward trillion-dollar market opportunities. Eli Lilly (LLY) is transforming obesity treatment with its incretin franchise, AMD is challenging for AI computing dominance against NVIDIA, and Shopify (SHOP) is redefining global commerce infrastructure. While operating in vastly different sectors, these companies share a defining characteristic: they are deploying billions of dollars in capital today to capture exponential growth tomorrow. In an era of elevated interest rates and tightening monetary conditions, the market has become increasingly discriminating about corporate investment strategies. Investors now demand clarity on capital efficiency, return timelines, and the financial logic underlying massive R&D and infrastructure commitments.

These three companies are executing investment cycles that will define their competitive positions for the next decade.

• Eli Lilly (LLY +21% in November while the market is falling) is constructing a $9 billion manufacturing complex to address supply constraints in obesity and diabetes treatments, the largest capital commitment in pharmaceutical history.

• AMD (consolidating after a +58% move in October) is channeling billions into R&D and the $4.9 billion ZT Systems acquisition to challenge NVIDIA’s AI accelerator dominance, betting that rack-scale solutions can capture meaningful share of the projected $1 trillion AI silicon market by 2030.

• Shopify (SHOP reaching oversold conditions with a -16% pullback in November) is expanding its logistics network and AI capabilities while maintaining an asset-light model, attempting to prove that a technology platform can compete with Amazon’s physical infrastructure without sacrificing operating leverage. Each strategy represents a bold vision, but bold visions require financial validation.

The market is reacting instantly to these focal points, but the true signal lies in the fundamental execution beneath their press releases. To understand which of these capital-intensive bets are poised to deliver durable shareholder value versus those simply riding momentum, read the full analysis that presents the business context for each company, their financial evolution during the last seven years, their competitive landscape, and their technical charts.

At the end of this publication, read the stock market and crypto space update with the momentum map including all the securities tracked (not only the six charted above in the Momentum Map). It’s worth noting the oversold conditions in indices, Bitcoin, and the so far bullish reaction to NVDA earnings. We will talk about it.

Subscribe now

Upgrade the subscription and gain immediate access to the Fundamental Library, featuring updated analyses for AMZN, TSLA, NFLX, PLTR, AAPL, GOOG, META, MSFT, and INTC as of today, plus today’s publication with AMD, LLY, and SHOP. Your subscription also unlocks the complete Market Intelligence Library and the essential Stock Market Update included with the Weekly Compass. Use the links:

• Fundamental Analysis Library

• Market Intelligence and Educational Library

• Weekly Compass

2026 is coming with a significant top and volatility, the approach today is not necessarily bullish for all these companies considering essential levels that could break, let’s begin to warm up being open minded to profit on pullbacks when key supports are breached.

Let’s begin.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is a premier global semiconductor company operating on a “fabless” business model, meaning it designs high-performance processors while outsourcing manufacturing to foundry partners like TSMC. The company competes fiercely across two primary battlegrounds: the CPU market, where its Ryzen (PC) and EPYC (Data Center) processors have successfully eroded Intel’s long-standing dominance; and the GPU market, where its Radeon graphics cards and Instinct accelerators challenge Nvidia. Currently, AMD’s strategy is heavily focused on capturing the booming demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure, positioning its MI300 series accelerators as the primary alternative for enterprise AI workloads while maintaining its stronghold in the gaming console market through partnerships with Sony and Microsoft.

AMD Charts a Course for AI’s $100 Billion Club

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has sharply revised its long-term outlook, projecting the total addressable market (TAM) for AI silicon to exceed $1 trillion by 2030. At its 2025 Financial Analyst Day, the company unveiled a strategic roadmap targeting double-digit market share in this expanding sector, implying potential annual data center revenue surpassing $100 billion. This represents a transformative leap from the current run rate of approximately $16 billion. The ambitious forecast is underpinned by a robust product pipeline, including the forthcoming MI400 and MI500 series accelerators, and a strategic move toward rack-scale solutions designed to compete directly with NVIDIA’s integrated ecosystem.

Profitability and Cash Generation

Read more

The market’s narrative on artificial intelligence is shifting from future promise to the present-day realities of a capital-intensive arms race. As this technological buildout redefines entire industries, a more sober analysis of its economic impact is required. This edition provides a fundamental examination of three critical players executing distinct AI strategies: Alphabet (GOOG), Apple (AAPL), and Palantir (PLTR). These companies are not merely competing; they are forging divergent paths, with Google and Apple leveraging their dominant consumer ecosystems while Palantir establishes itself as the operational backbone for enterprise and government clients.

For the latest fundamental immersions considering the latest earnings reports with price targets as we will study today for these three companies, you can access using these links:

• Tech Giants in Transformation: NFLX, TSLA, INTC

• Tech’s Trillion Dollar AI Bet: META, MSFT, AMZN

Google and Apple, are engaged in a complex interplay of cooperation and competition. Recent November 2025 reports indicate Apple may license Google’s Gemini model for its Siri platform, a move that would reinforce Apple’s strategy of controlling the high-margin user experience on its iPhone 17 while leveraging third-party AI technology. This development coincides with Google’s preparation to deploy its new “Ironwood” AI chips, a clear initiative to optimize its massive infrastructure and defend its core Search and Cloud franchises from emerging competitive threats.

While the tech giants contest for consumer supremacy, Palantir is emerging as an enterprise platform. Its third-quarter results, reported in early November, registered a striking 62.7% year-over-year revenue acceleration. This performance was not anomalous; it was propelled by a 122% surge in its U.S. commercial business, providing the first concrete evidence that its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) is successfully converting corporate clients from pilot projects to large-scale operational deployments.

The following analysis provide a friendly fundamental and technical-based assessment of each company. By examining business context, operating margins, capital expenditure trends, free cash flow generation, and technical setups with price targets, we can better evaluate how these three distinct strategies are translating into tangible and sustainable shareholder value.

As usual, we’ll study the stock market and Bitcoin context. It’s worth noting the SPX is showing indecision at the immediate bullish target of $6,863 (mentioned in Sunday’s Weekly Compass), the IWM was also rejected at the target of $246.5, and the Dow Jones made it to $48,261. Meanwhile, the VIX was rejected today precisely from 18. For the SPX, the sooner that price gap gets filled, the better.

• Market Divided: 4 Hindenburg Omen Triggered but Hammer Forms

Unlock the full content by upgrading your subscription!

Subscribe now

Let’s begin.

Palantir Technologies is a data analytics company that builds sophisticated software platforms for large organizations. Its business is divided into two primary segments: “Gotham,” its original platform designed for government agencies, particularly in the defense and intelligence sectors, to analyze complex data sets for counter-terrorism and defense operations; and “Foundry,” a commercial platform that serves large corporations by helping them integrate and analyze their own vast, disparate data sources to improve decision-making and operational efficiency. The company is now aggressively expanding its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), which aims to integrate large language models and other AI tools directly into its existing Gotham and Foundry data ecosystems.

How AIP Is Fueling a New Growth Phase:

Read more

The current market landscape is increasingly defined by an unprecedented capital investment cycle in artificial intelligence. This fundamental deep dive provides an examination of three companies at the epicenter of this transformation: Meta Platforms, Amazon, and Microsoft. These technology powerhouses are no longer simply leaders in social media, e-commerce, and enterprise software; they are engaged in a high-stakes race to build the core infrastructure that will power the next decade of digital innovation, creating complex and evolving investment theses that demand rigorous analysis.

Each company is pursuing distinct yet overlapping strategies that reflect different competitive positions and strategic priorities. Microsoft is integrating OpenAI capabilities and “Copilot” services throughout its dominant enterprise software ecosystem, leveraging Azure cloud infrastructure as the foundation for AI monetization. Amazon is deploying massive capital expenditures to defend AWS market leadership, recently validated by a $38 billion cloud agreement with OpenAI, while its e-commerce and advertising divisions provide substantial financial support for this infrastructure buildout. Meta is executing a dual-pronged approach, channeling the considerable profitability of its advertising platform into both open-source AI development through Llama and its ambitious, long-term metaverse initiative through Reality Labs.

Last week, my fundamental analysis covered , , and , I mentioned that the majority of the bearish move for one was likely complete, detailed my bullish considerations for another, and stressed the importance of caution with the third. Premium subscribers can attest that all three considerations have proven accurate. The analysis, including the medium term price targets with supports to watch, remains entirely valid today, as fundamentals and long timeframes offer stability in considerations. You can access the analysis here:

• Tech Giants in Transformation: NFLX - TSLA - INTC

Today, we apply the same fundamental and technical approach to and , both of which fell after their earnings reports. In today’s publication, I urge you to read the main elements that impacted these stocks and consider the long-term sustainability of those factors. is also analyzed today, so you can have more references to navigate the recent rally.

This market is beginning to test people who have been looking for buying opportunities in individual stocks; these chances are arising while the major indices benefit from internal giants rotating. Last weekend’s study of the Hindenburg Omen signal, complete with charts and facts, should help you navigate the current noise.

• Hindenburg Omen - 5 Indicators to Navigate the Week

The three companies analyzed today are studied their technical charts with price targets and levels to watch for the short and medium term.

Upgrade your subscription to paid, and get access to all the premium content.

Subscribe now

Let’s begin with META, then MSFT, and we finish with AMZN, then we continue with stock market and Bitcoin commentary.

Meta Platforms (META) is a global technology conglomerate that operates two distinct business segments. The first and primary profit engine is its “Family of Apps” (FoA), which includes the world’s largest social media and communication platforms: Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger. This division generates the vast majority of the company’s revenue through a sophisticated digital advertising business that leverages its massive user base. The second segment is “Reality Labs” (RL), a future-focused, capital-intensive division responsible for building the “metaverse,” which involves significant long-term investments in artificial intelligence (AI), virtual reality (VR) hardware like the Quest headset, and augmented reality (AR) technology.

Meta Platforms: AI Investment Accelerates Amid Strong Ad Growth

Read more

The SPX managed to stay afloat today in the neutral zone while most of the sectors and companies listed in the S&P 500 were declining. The index stayed afloat thanks to NVDA (which printed a shooting star in the daily timeframe above the upper Bollinger Band and with the RSI above 70, usually an overbought condition), GOOG (which will open tomorrow with a gap but is clearly strong), and AVGO, which rallied along with PLTR.

MSFT is recovering after its after-hours selloff, and META cratered, likely creating a bullish gap tomorrow similar to the one NFLX printed last week.

We will continue analyzing the status of the stock market and Bitcoin after a comprehensive assessment of three companies that posted results last week: TSLA, NFLX, and INTC. As promised, the fundamental library is constantly updated during this earnings season.

Premium subscribers have received the market intelligence studies that present the rationale for the current bull market and what is extremely likely to come next based on the current price structure, documented rare signals, and special statistics that have proven their worth.

• Nasdaq’s +50% Surge: What Technicals Say Happens Next

• Roadmap for Potential Volatility - Historical V-Shaped bounces for SPX

• Bitcoin’s New Season

Get access to unlock those studies and all the content on SmartReversals.com with the paid subscription.

Subscribe now

That said, a selloff in a security is likely to be an opportunity. The challenge is: will you be ready to buy the opportunities when the pullback finally comes?

So far, the indices have managed to stay afloat due to internal rotation. TSLA and AAPL have been rising for weeks while GOOG and MSFT were in a consolidation process after rallying prior to the other two mentioned. More examples could be mentioned like AVGO versus AMZN, or JPM versus BRK.B. So, let’s study the three giants that recently posted earnings to assess how buyable their setups are, considering their business context.

FUNDAMENTAL DEEP DIVE & TECHNICAL ROADMAP: TESLA - NETFLIX - INTEL

The current market environment represents a significant departure from the momentum-driven expansion of recent years. Today’s investment landscape demands rigorous scrutiny of even the most established industry leaders as they confront fundamental questions regarding their competitive positioning and long-term viability. Today we will update the fundamental context for Intel, Tesla, and Netflix.—each currently executing critical strategic transformations that will determine their trajectory through the next decade.

This analysis provides a comprehensive examination of the structural challenges and growth opportunities confronting each organization. Intel’s assessment focuses on its capital-intensive effort to reestablish manufacturing leadership through its foundry initiative while defending market share in increasingly competitive server and PC processor segments. The Tesla analysis evaluates the company’s transition from automotive manufacturer to diversified technology enterprise, with particular emphasis on its substantial investments in artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicle systems, and robotics. The Netflix examination analyzes the company’s post-streaming-wars strategy, including the development of its advertising-supported tier and expansion into live programming as mechanisms for sustained revenue growth in a maturing market.

Subscribe now

The analytical framework employed throughout this series prioritizes financial fundamentals over market sentiment or technological narratives. Each assessment examines key performance indicators including revenue composition and growth rates, operating margin trends, free cash flow generation, and balance sheet strength. This data-driven approach is designed to address a central investment question: Do these strategic initiatives represent economically viable paths to profitable growth, or do they constitute high-risk ventures with uncertain returns on invested capital?

These organizations consistently generate significant market debate, with commentary frequently driven by technological speculation or news-cycle volatility rather than operational analysis. Let’s evaluate the underlying operational realities, strategic opportunities, and material risks associated with each company’s transformation.

To learn about my Top-Down Trading Method that combines long technical setups with fundamental analysis and adds support and resistance levels to manage risk and to set long term price targets, click for access here:

• Top-Down Trading Method

Today’s fundamental analysis includes price targets for TSLA, NFLX, and INTC

Tesla, Inc. is a multifaceted technology company that operates well beyond its core identity as a leading manufacturer of electric vehicles like the Model 3, Model Y, and Cybertruck. The company’s Automotive division, its largest revenue source, is complemented by a rapidly growing Energy Generation and Storage segment that provides Powerwall and Megapack battery solutions. However, Tesla’s long-term strategy is increasingly focused on becoming a leader in Artificial Intelligence, with its valuation and future prospects heavily tied to the development of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, a planned autonomous Robotaxi network, and the Optimus humanoid robot.

Tesla: Short-Term Auto Sales Pressure Meets Long-Term Innovation Agenda

Read more

In bull markets, breakout strategies stand out as a powerful approach for capturing significant price movements, particularly in large-cap and mega-cap companies. These strategies focus on identifying securities poised to break through established trading ranges or resistance levels, often signaling the start of a new, sustained uptrend. For investors looking to capitalize on momentum in market leaders across diverse sectors like finance, consumer travel, and technology, this methodology offers clear entry points while helping to manage risk. The key is a disciplined fusion of technical indicators mentioned below, confirmed by rising volume, and protected by well-defined stop-loss measures (based on support and resistance levels).

Today we will cover two topics:

• Stock Market & Crypto Update: Essential Long-Term Charts

• Three Breakout Companies

The fundamental analysis published over the last few months has successfully identified several companies—including APP, AVGO, TSM, HOOD, and more—that have since broken out. Today, the names of the new companies, along with their full analysis, are detailed below in the premium section, following the market updates for the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (NDX), and Bitcoin.

There are two publications that are a must read since they provide context for today’s analysis, the first one covers the stage of the current bull market, the second one is about Bitcoin and its four year cycle:

• Roadmap for Potential Volatility

• Bitcoin’s New Season

Subscribe now

This publication consistently analyzes the following securities to provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

If you trade some of those securities, the premium subscription is for you.

Give a gift subscription

Let’s begin with essential elements to watch for the SPX this month:

SPX - Chart Analysis and Expectations:

The bull market I called in April has gained 38% since the bottom. In the special analysis linked above, we studied the exact level from which a decline began in previous overextensions and what happened afterwards. The table below summarizes that critical historical context:

Read more

China remains a decisive force in the global economy, powered by its massive consumer base of 1.4 billion people, accelerating technological adoption rates, and an ongoing digital transformation that continues reshaping entire industries. For investors, this convergence creates a compelling yet complex investment landscape that demands rigorous evaluation and nuanced understanding.

Today’s edition is focused on four of the most influential companies navigating this terrain: Alibaba (BABA), JD.com (JD), Baidu (BIDU), and Pinduoduo (PDD). Each is at a critical juncture, responding to market pressures with distinct strategies. I will explore how the e-commerce incumbents, Alibaba and JD.com, are adapting to challenges from Pinduoduo’s disruptive social commerce model and a changing consumer focus on value. Also, I’ll analyze Baidu’s ambitious transformation from a search engine leader into a formidable AI powerhouse, a move that represents one of the most significant strategic actions in the industry.

For U.S. and European investors, the primary opportunity lies in looking beyond the well-publicized geopolitical and regulatory headlines to appreciate the fundamental shifts occurring within these businesses. The central question is whether current market valuations accurately reflect the long-term potential of their strategic initiatives, from cloud computing and autonomous driving to international expansion. These analyses are designed to provide a clear, data-driven perspective on each company’s operational strengths, competitive positioning, and financial health, offering a foundational tool for assessing their individual value propositions.

Key notes before continuing:

The recent investment ideas presented in this publication have successfully anticipated bullish moves for several companies. The percentage gains versus the day of the publication are as follows:

• AVGO: +11%

• TSM: +21%

• APP: +12.5%

• DASH: +2.0%

• HOOD: +8.5%

• UBER: +6.5%

• UNH: +17.3%

Some of those gains include a pullback in progress, meaning that the gains have been even higher. I always provide specific entry prices for a safer trade; and support levels which, if breached, signal it’s better to wait for a new entry point, as was the case with CRM and CSCO.

My analysis focuses on major companies and megacaps, giving you a greater margin of safety that micro- or small-cap stocks simply cannot provide; since an unexpected move in those smaller companies can be really painful. I prefer companies with robust fundamental data and high volume. Get access to my complete fundamental library:

• Fundamentals: The Complete Library

Also, get access to my market research and educational library:

• Complete Market Intelligence and Educational Library

Premium members can navigate all the content, upgrade your subscription to the paid plan.

Subscribe now

The eBook with the two chapters published so far is here, it’s been 18 months of SmartReversals, stay tuned with the upcoming publications, there are six sections for everyone, and one will be released each week.

Smartreversals Ebook Part 1 Sections 1 And 2 Candlesticks And Oscillators

1.74MB ∙ PDF file

Download

Download

Upgrade your subscription now to get the specific price entries, targets, and risk management prices for all our published investment ideas. The gains from these trade ideas outpace the subscription price, making it a valuable investment in itself, not to mention the fundamental and market intelligence libraries.

Subscribe now

Let’s continue with the analysis for the companies mentioned, and the observations for today’s price action in the stock market, including the support and resistance levels for the companies constantly analyzed.

Read more

Investing based solely on technical charts is like navigating without a map; while you can see the immediate path, you lack the context of the broader landscape. A deep understanding of a company's fundamental analysis and its financials is the essential compass that guides you. It's how you move beyond the daily noise of price fluctuations to uncover a…

Read more

The Wednesday edition is always special, covering a wider range of topics including fundamentals, macro analysis, or market research, always with the stock market commentary. This complements my Friday and Saturday reports, which provide bullish and bearish setups for a consistent set of well-researched stocks, ETFs, Bitcoin, and indices based on current momentum.

That said, whenever compelling opportunities arise, we will feature a special segment in our Wednesday analysis: Trade Ideas. This section combines fundamental, technical, and market research to highlight setups for both short-term trades and longer-term positions. My focus remains on large-cap stocks, though I will feature other companies when an exceptionally strong setup emerges.

In today's edition, we'll analyze FIVE companies with a high "Economic Moat." We'll start by defining what a moat is and then explore trade ideas based on this concept, as well as others based on technicals.

Also, as a thank you to this community, remember that I will be sharing the first of six sections of my new ebook focused on technical analysis during this weekend, one section will be added every week.

Subscribe now

Of course, we will also analyze current stock market and Bitcoin conditions, tracking the five key indicators mentioned last Saturday to monitor the market. We'll also review the key levels for ORCL to help you manage risk, whether you are considering a long or short position.

Let’s begin with a fundamental analysis of HOOD, APP, and DASH, followed by other trade ideas and the stock market and crypto space update including ORCL. All stocks analyzed include key monthly and weekly support and resistance levels to provide you with a complete roadmap for the rest of the month.

You can navigate all of my educational content in the following guide:

Let’s begin with HOOD, DASH, and APP, following with other two big caps showing potential bullish setups:

Give a gift subscription

Economic MOAT

A core principle of fundamental analysis involves identifying companies with durable competitive advantages, often described as "economic moats." This framework, popularized by Warren Buffett, focuses on businesses that possess distinct, sustainable strengths protecting their long-term profitability and market share from competitors. These advantages can stem from various sources: powerful network effects, significant cost efficiencies, intangible assets like brand recognition, or high customer switching costs.

Companies with strong economic moats typically translate these protective barriers into tangible financial results. They demonstrate consistent positive free cash flow generation and attractive returns on invested capital—key indicators of business health, capacity for self-funded growth, and efficiency in deploying capital to create shareholder value over time.

The setups presented today examine three distinct technology companies through a fundamental analysis lens: AppLovin (APP), a mobile technology platform; DoorDash (DASH), a local commerce and logistics provider; and Robinhood (HOOD), a financial services firm. Each analysis evaluates the company's business model, recent financial performance, strategic initiatives, and market positioning to provide a comprehensive investment overview (APP and HOOD captured my attention also because they’re now listed in the S&P 500). After the deep dive in those three, more trade ideas will be presented before the market update.

Subscribe now

These essential terms will help you navigate the investment concepts and financial metrics discussed throughout the analysis:

Economic Moat: It represents a durable, long-term competitive advantage that allows a company to protect its market share and profitability from competitors. Like the defensive moat around a medieval castle, it creates a structural barrier that rivals find difficult to breach. These advantages can emerge from network effects (such as a large user base), significant cost advantages, intangible assets (including patents or strong brand identity), or high customer switching costs.

Free Cash Flow (FCF): Free cash flow measures the cash a company generates through its operations after subtracting capital expenditures—the money invested in physical assets like property, buildings, and equipment. FCF serves as a crucial profitability indicator because it reveals how much cash remains available for debt repayment, dividend payments, share buybacks, or future growth investments. Strong free cash flow signals financial flexibility and overall business health.

Gross Order Volume (GOV): Gross Order Volume represents the total value of all goods and services sold through a marketplace platform over a specific period. For companies like DoorDash, GOV captures the total dollar amount of all orders placed before deducting fees, commissions, refunds, or discounts. While GOV differs from actual company revenue, it serves as a key indicator of platform scale and user engagement levels.

Robinhood is a financial technology company that gained prominence with its commission-free trading app, becoming a primary gateway to the financial markets for a new generation of investors, predominantly Millennials and Gen Z. The company's core strategy involves evolving from a simple trading platform into a comprehensive financial ecosystem. Key initiatives include launching the Robinhood Legend desktop platform to serve active traders and developing a digital private bank to attract and retain high-net-worth clients, aiming to significantly increase its share of each customer's financial life.

The company's expansion is supported by strong user and financial growth, with over 26.5 million funded customers. A key driver of its financial model is the Robinhood Gold subscription service, which has grown to 3.5 million members by offering premium features like higher interest rates and larger instant deposits. Robinhood's inclusion in the S&P 500 index reflects its scale and significance in the modern financial landscape, as it continues to leverage its large user base to launch and scale new products

78% of its revenue comes from Securities Sales and Trading Services, and 22% comes from Consumer Finance Services.

Expanding Beyond Retail Trading Into Wealth Management

Read more

During the 1849 Gold Rush, the smartest entrepreneurs didn't waste time panning for gold in freezing rivers. Instead, they made their fortunes selling picks, shovels, and sturdy denim pants to thousands of hopeful prospectors. Today's artificial intelligence boom follows a strikingly similar pattern.

While everyone talks about the latest AI applications making headlines, the real money flows to companies building the essential infrastructure behind the scenes. These are the modern equivalents of those savvy Gold Rush merchants—except instead of selling mining tools, they're providing the fundamental technology that powers every AI breakthrough.

This publication examines three powerhouses driving today's AI infrastructure boom. First, we'll explore NVIDIA (NVDA), whose specialized processors have become as essential to AI development as pickaxes were to gold mining. Next, we'll dive into Broadcom (AVGO), which creates the custom chips and networking equipment that connect AI systems—functioning much like the railroads that linked Gold Rush settlements to civilization. Finally, we'll examine Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the master manufacturer producing cutting-edge chips for virtually every major player in the industry.

These companies sit at the center of what may be the most transformative technological shift of our lifetime. However, the landscape carries significant risks—from overbought prices, escalating geopolitical tensions and fragile supply chains to the relentless pace of technological change that can quickly make today's leaders tomorrow's footnotes.

The following analyses will examine each company's financial strength, competitive position, and unique challenges. Because in this modern gold rush, understanding who's really profiting requires looking beyond the glittering surface to the foundational players making it all possible.

After the fundamental analysis for NVDA, AVGO, and TSM we will study the market conditions and the Support and Resistance levels for over 40 securities.

Give a gift subscription

This publication consistently analyzes the following securities to provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, UNH, AVGO, COST, PFE, PLTR, NFLX

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Subscribe now

Subscribe now to unlock today's fundamental analyses, the updated support and resistance levels for all mentioned securities, and the complete market research library.

This collection includes in-depth studies on market tops, breadth signals, the Bitcoin cycle, Options, Fibonacci sequence, Elliot Wave, and bear market bottoms. The value of this content alone is worth the subscription, and the entire library is organized in the following guide:

Let's continue with the fundamental analysis of NVDA, AVGO, and TSM, including their updated price targets, followed by the stock market and crypto update.

NVIDIA Corporation: Financial Performance and Market Position Analysis

Read more

Today’s edition provides a fundamental analysis of three distinct technology leaders—Tesla, Amazon, and Palantir—each navigating a critical phase defined by strategic investments in artificial intelligence and infrastructure. While their market positions and near-term outlooks differ significantly, all three are making substantial capital allocation decisions designed to shape their competitive standing for the next decade.

Both Amazon and Palantir are in a period of aggressive growth and investment. Palantir reported an exceptional acceleration in Q2 2025, with revenue surging +48.1% year-over-year, driven by rapid adoption in its U.S. commercial segment. Amazon projects steady +11.1% revenue growth for 2025, led by its high-margin AWS and Advertising. Both companies are undertaking significant capital expenditures—with Amazon's net capex rising to $117 billion—to expand their infrastructure and solidify their market positions.

Remember that in this series of fundamental updates, the Capex term was explained in an educational segment last Wednesday, when the edition was focused on GOOG, AAPL, META, and MSFT; get access here:

In contrast, Tesla is navigating a planned strategic transition through near-term market headwinds. The company anticipates a temporary decline in revenue and vehicle volume in 2025 (projected at -5% and -10%, respectively) due to external policy changes and market conditions. However, it is leveraging its strong balance sheet, which includes $36.5 billion in cash, to fund a significant, long-term investment in vehicle autonomy and AI, aiming for a substantial shift in its business economics by the end of 2026.

Subscribe now

Let's dive into the fundamentals for TSLA, AMZN, and PLTR; reviewing also their technical charts, following with a stock market commentary including the support and resistance levels for SPX, NDX, QQQ, IWM, TSLA, NVDA, AAPL, PLTR, and 40+ securities.

This is a must-read for anyone interested in PLTR, TSLA, and/or AMZN. Get the crucial context behind the price action to understand the potential opportunities and specific risks involved with each.

Read more

In this analysis of the technology sector's leading companies—Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Apple—there is a singular, unifying theme: a historic and capital-intensive investment to artificial intelligence.

This transition is the most critical strategic challenge these firms have faced in a decade. It's fundamentally reshaping their financial models, competitive dynamics, and long-term growth prospects. The following analyses will delve into the specifics of how each company is navigating this landscape, detailing their individual investment strategies, early monetization successes, and the unique risks they face. What I've laid out is a look into how each of these titans is attempting to secure its future in an era that will be defined by AI.

Let's do a deep dive on their fundamentals and the main key points from the recent earnings reports.

This is the next series of fundamental updates for the "Magnificent 7" and other stocks featured in the Weekly Compass. The upcoming update will cover TSLA, PLTR, and AMZN.

This publication consistently analyzes the following securities to provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, UNH, AVGO, COST, PFE, PLTR, NFLX

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Subscribe now, and unlock all the educational content, the support and resistance levels for all of them every week, and the Weekly Compass with charts and price targets.

Subscribe now

Let’s begin with the context and we will continue with the charts in today’s market update.

Microsoft has evolved from a PC-focused software company into a diversified "cloud-first" technology leader. Its primary growth driver is the Intelligent Cloud segment, powered by its Azure platform, which is the second-largest public cloud provider in the world.

Alongside its cloud business, Microsoft operates two other core segments: Productivity and Business Processes, which includes Office 365, and More Personal Computing, which covers its Windows operating system, Xbox consoles, and Surface devices.

Microsoft Corporation continues executing its strategy centered on Cloud and Artificial Intelligence, delivering strong quarterly results that demonstrate momentum across key business segments.

Key Performance Drivers

Azure and Microsoft's expanding AI portfolio serve as primary growth catalysts. The cloud division reported 39% growth in constant currency during the most recent quarter, exceeding consensus forecasts. This performance is supported by large enterprise cloud migrations and enhanced capacity from new platform deployments.

The company shows progress in monetizing its AI investments, with the Office division demonstrating accelerating Average Selling Price (ASP) attributed to M365 Copilot adoption. This supports the potential for AI applications to drive sustained growth. Microsoft's AI strategy encompasses infrastructure services on Azure—hosting over 1,800 AI models—through application-layer Copilots, enhanced by its strategic OpenAI partnership.

Exceptional Financial Performance

Microsoft demonstrates remarkable financial discipline with operating income growing 23%, on 18% revenue growth, expanding operating margins to an impressive 44.9%. This operational leverage persists despite historic capital expenditures for AI infrastructure buildout, with Q1 capex guided above $30 billion and full-year FY2025 estimates near $64.5 billion. This elevated investment signals strong demand backed by significant backlog, with AI revenue growth now outpacing capex growth—indicating improving ROI on these substantial investments.

Investment Analysis:

AI & Cloud Position: Microsoft benefits from AI trends across both infrastructure (Azure) and applications (Office/Copilot), creating diversified growth opportunities.

Monetization Progress: Accelerating Office ASP and AI revenue outpacing CAPEX provide evidence of developing monetization capabilities and improving investment returns.

Operational Performance: The company demonstrates margin expansion while maintaining record investment levels, with operating margins approaching 45% indicating strong operational control.

Financial Position: Substantial cash from operations (estimated $136 billion in FY25) supports aggressive capex while maintaining balance sheet strength. Long-term debt-to-capitalization ratio is projected to decline to 8.8%.

Risk Considerations

Key risks include slower-than-expected AI adoption relative to current capital spending plans, potentially impacting earnings. Rising compute costs or oversupply could pressure profitability, while tariffs or macroeconomic deterioration might negatively affect gaming and PC segments.

Educational Segment

Read more

Economic indicators are crucial for investors, providing a compass to navigate the health of the economy and anticipate market shifts. By understanding these signals, you can make more informed decisions and strategically adjust your portfolio. This analysis delves into key U.S. economic indicators, categorized into three groups: leading, coincident, and lagging, offering a comprehensive view of the current economic landscape. This edition includes over 17 macroeconomic charts with clear definitions and actionable insights – a valuable resource to print or bookmark.

Subscribing today is a smart move to gain this essential long-term macro perspective. As a subscriber, you'll also access the latest publications and special sections, including the educational library with stock market studies plus technical indicators explained (click here for access), and the fundamental library featuring over 50 comprehensively analyzed companies (click here for access).

To access the most recent publications, click here:

• Market Instruments Explained

• Finding More Effective Setups - Confluence Zones

• Mastering Options

Subscribe now

Let’s begin with the macro update.

In February, this macro analysis warned well about the incoming bear market, we will study the same leading indicators that preceded the selloff observed from mid February to the beginning of April, assessing what is the state of the economy as of today including the most recent updates in GDP and inflation. This is based on numbers and charts only, after studying each indicator you will find the summary with conclusions. Let’s begin with the long term view for the SPX, the same one posted last February, there is an indicator back to overbought zone.

SPX - Long-Term View

Read more

Over the last few weeks, I've added weekly S/R levels for 10 stocks suggested by paid subscribers, on top of the usual 44 posted every Friday. Uber was one of your popular choices.

Because my top-down analysis always starts with fundamentals, I've also been publishing deep-dives on some of these names suggested by premium subscribers, including Salesforce (CRM), Marvell (MRVL), and Coinbase (COIN).

Today, Uber is being added to the list. The full fundamental analysis is now live in the library, for access to all the analyses, Click here.

Before continuing, remember to visit the support and resistance levels for this week, the Weekly Compass with a special analysis for the coming months for the S&P500, and the latest educational content about market instruments:

This publication consistently analyzes the following securities to provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, UNH, AVGO, COST, PFE, PLTR, NFLX

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Unlock all the content with a premium subscription.

Subscribe now

Let's dive in.

Uber operates as a global mobility platform, connecting over 100 million monthly customers with its core services in Mobility, Delivery, and Freight. The company's expansive network covers 63 countries, with a presence in more than 750 ridesharing markets and over 500 markets for its Eats delivery service. Underscoring its significant international footprint, nearly half of Uber's Core Platform Revenue is generated outside of the United States.

Balancing Profitability with the Road to an Autonomous Future

Uber Technologies has crossed a pivotal threshold, transforming from a disruptive, cash-burning growth story into a profitable global platform generating substantial free cash flow. The company's network effect continues to strengthen, driving balanced growth across its core Mobility and Delivery segments.

Yet beneath this operational success lies a more complex reality. Uber's long-term trajectory hinges on two seismic forces reshaping the mobility landscape: the emergence of autonomous vehicle technology and an increasingly uncertain regulatory environment. This analysis examines how Uber's current strength positions it to navigate these critical challenges and opportunities.

Current Performance: The Power of Scale Unleashed

Uber's recent financial results demonstrate what happens when a platform reaches true scale. The first quarter of 2025 showcased momentum across every key metric:

Platform-Wide Growth: Gross Bookings surged to $42.8 billion, up 18% year-over-year in constant currency. This growth reflects balanced strength in both Mobility (+20% constant currency) and Delivery (+18% constant currency) segments.

Network Effect Acceleration: Monthly Active Platform Consumers grew 14% to 170 million users who are becoming increasingly engaged—trips per user rose 3% year-over-year, indicating deeper platform penetration.

Profitability at Scale: Most impressively, this growth translates directly to the bottom line. Adjusted EBITDA jumped 35% to $1.9 billion in Q1, while the company generated $2.3 billion in free cash flow. Projections suggest potential free cash flow of $8 billion in 2025 and over $10 billion in 2026.

The Autonomous Future: Partnership Over Ownership

While current performance impresses, the market remains fixated on autonomous vehicles' long-term disruption potential. Here, Uber has strategically shifted from costly in-house development to a capital-light partnership model, positioning itself as the essential demand aggregator for AV developers.

Recent developments from AV operators like Waymo and Zoox, despite initially pressuring Uber's stock, actually validate this partnership approach through their revelation of a slow, complex rollout timeline.

The Regulatory Wild Card: Persistent Uncertainty

The most significant risk to Uber's business model remains regulatory uncertainty surrounding driver classification. The company's treatment of drivers and couriers as independent contractors faces continuous legal and political challenges globally.

In the United States, ongoing legal challenges to California's Proposition 22 and potential federal or state-level regulations create a fluid environment. An adverse ruling in a major market forcing driver reclassification to employees would fundamentally alter Uber's cost structure and operational model. While Uber maintains its current model is compliant and preferred by most drivers, this regulatory overhang represents a persistent variable demanding constant investor attention.

Navigating the Transition

Uber's investment profile embodies a compelling duality. The company demonstrates exceptional execution today, with a strengthening network effect driving profitable growth and substantial free cash flow. Yet its future remains subject to the transformative impacts of autonomous technology and regulatory evolution.

Uber's current strategy appears designed to leverage present strength for future navigation—using its formidable platform to integrate AV partners while deploying scale and resources to manage regulatory complexity. The company's ultimate value trajectory will likely depend on successfully managing this transition from current platform dominance to a future where mobility itself is being redefined.

The question for investors isn't whether Uber can maintain its current success, but whether it can evolve with the forces reshaping its industry while preserving the network effects that drive its profitability today.

A company with consistently growing revenue and operating income, as seen in the provided table, is generally a strong indicator of a healthy and well-managed business. This trend demonstrates that the company is successfully increasing its top line while also becoming more profitable in its core operations. Growing revenue signifies that the company is either expanding its market share, experiencing a surge in demand for its products and services, or successfully entering new markets. This is a positive sign for investors, as a larger revenue base provides a stronger foundation for future profitability and can lead to increased confidence and higher stock valuations.

Furthermore, the growth in operating income is a crucial sign of the company's financial strength and efficiency. Operating income represents the profit generated from the company's core business activities after accounting for all operating expenses. When this metric increases, it shows that the company is effectively managing its costs, improving operational efficiencies, or benefiting from economies of scale. The combination of both revenue and operating income growth suggests that the company's business model is not only sustainable but also becoming more profitable over time. This financial health allows the company to reinvest in its growth, pay down debt, and return value to its shareholders, making it a highly attractive prospect for investors.

Technical Analysis

Read more

For the past two weeks, I’ve been modeling the predictive support and resistance levels for the stocks most requested by our subscriber community. It’s encouraging to see that the community's interests align with my research; most of the popular suggestions, including CRWD, HOOD, PLTR, UNH, SPOT, and SHOP, are already featured in the library of fundamental analysis.

For some of the suggested stocks not yet in the library, I will be conducting a fundamental deep-dive. This ensures that every technical assessment provided is backed by a solid understanding of the company's business, financials, and competitive landscape. If you only trade the chart, you’re assuming more risk than you think. Read and educational note I posted about fundamentals:

• From Charts to Companies: The Power of Fundamentals

The best point about fundamentals, is that they don’t change from one day to another, they can be valid during three months at least (between each earnings call). The fundamental library provides you fundamentals for 50+ companies already, including all the Magnificent Seven (AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, META, AMZN, TSLA, and NVDA), their competitors (AVGO, AMD, MU, SHOP, HP, SNAP, etc), and other essential companies like banks (JPM, BAC…), aerospace (LMT, BA…), streaming (NFLX, DIS, SPOT), and popular companies breaking out (CRWD, NOW, HOOD…)

• Library of Fundamental and Macro Analysis

The paid plan gives you access to all the content at smartreversals.com

Subscribe now

Price action is ultimately a mechanism for discounting the market's collective judgment on a company's future prospects, it’s worth knowing the fundamental information as business model, future prospects, opportunities, competitive landscape, revenue growth, and other financial aspects of the companies.

Salesforce (CRM) and Marvel (MRVL) are included in today’s publication

And as market note, the bullish momentum makes sense with the signals studied since April, so the upcoming long holiday weekend is the perfect opportunity to dive in. Upgrade your subscription now and explore these essential studies—they are an essential read to prepare for the market's next leg up. Click in each link:

• Study of Bounces Across Six Major Market Corrections

• Finding Bottoms in Bear Markets

• First Rare Bullish Signal Study

• Second Rare Bullish Signal Study

• Gaps not Expected to be Filled

• Third Rare Bullish Signal Study

• Fourth Rare Bullish Signal Study

Subscribe now

Also, at the end of this publication you will find the Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.

Regarding the Support and Resistance Levels

This publication consistently analyzes the following securities to provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, UNH, AVGO, COST, PFE, PLTR, NFLX

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Use this long stock market weekend to sharpen your edge. Subscribe today and unlock the tools you need to prepare for the market's next move, including access to the fundamental library, all market studies, educational content, and the key support/resistance levels for next week. Plus, you'll receive the comprehensive Weekly Compass with charts and targets, published every weekend.

Subscribe now

Summer Camp Levels: Until July 19th, in addition to the usual 40+ securities analyzed, I will model the support and resistance levels for 10 additional securities. These ten "rotating slots" will be filled by stocks chosen by you, both free and paid subscribers.

To vote, simply comment below this publication with the ticker symbols you're interested in. I will select the five most-requested stocks each week. If a stock is popular enough to get voted in every week, that's perfectly fine!

Let’s begin with the Fundamental analysis for MRVL and CRM, and then we continue with the S/R levels for next week.

Marvell Technology is a leading fabless semiconductor firm that excels in developing complex System-on-a-Chip (SoC) solutions. Harnessing a broad portfolio of intellectual property that spans computing, networking, optics, storage, and security, Marvell integrates advanced analog, mixed-signal, and digital signal processing. This expertise allows the company to deliver high-performance standard and semi-custom products that power critical infrastructure across the cloud, enterprise, automotive, telecom, and industrial markets.

Marvell Technology: Engineering AI Dominance Through Strategic Focus

Marvell Technology (MRVL) is executing a masterful transformation into a data center powerhouse, strengthening bullish conviction in the company's trajectory. Recent developments in its custom-compute division underscore an ambitious expansion of its AI capabilities, positioning Marvell as a prime beneficiary of the unprecedented surge in AI capital expenditures.

The AI Growth Engine: Catalysts Driving Outperformance

Marvell's compelling growth story centers on the data center segment, which now commands 76% of total revenue. Two powerful catalysts are propelling this momentum:

Accelerating Custom Silicon Dominance

The explosion in custom AI silicon demand is playing directly to Marvell's strengths. The company has secured two additional custom silicon clients, bringing its impressive pipeline to 18 socket wins. This commercial momentum gains further validation through an expanded five-year partnership with Amazon Web Services (AWS), delivering enhanced revenue predictability across Marvell's custom AI products, optical Digital Signal Processors (DSPs), and switching solutions.

Exponential Market Expansion

Supporting this growth trajectory, Marvell has dramatically increased its long-term data center Total Addressable Market (TAM) forecast to $94 billion by 2028—a substantial leap from the previous $75 billion projection. Most notably, the custom AI chip opportunity alone represents a $55 billion market within this expanded TAM.

Financial Excellence: Converting Growth into Shareholder Returns

This robust revenue growth is translating directly into enhanced profitability and balance sheet strength. While the initial deployment of new custom silicon programs creates temporary gross margin pressure, these strategic initiatives remain highly accretive to operating profit and earnings per share.

Marvell's financial foundation remains solid. As of April 2025, total debt stands at a manageable $4.2 billion, with healthy leverage metrics of 1.8x gross debt/EBITDA and 1.4x net debt/EBITDA. The company is aggressively returning capital to share-holders, ramping stock repurchases to $340 million in the latest quarter from $200 million previously. Inventory management remains disciplined at $1.07 billion.

Growing revenue, increasing cash, and reducing debt is a trifecta of financial health. Here's why:

Read more