The current market decline has been anticipated since Thursday, October 1st, when I documented the technical reasons why a spike in the Volatility Index (VIX) was imminent. On Thursday, October 8th, I anticipated a bearish formation in the price action for the NDX, and last Saturday I anticipated the vanishing bounce.

The bearish reversal did not happen by chance; it occurred when the price approached 7,776 for the SPX as a weekly target, and in the case of the NDX, when it approached the central monthly level of 29,977. A bearish reversal was expected, the only question was the trigger.

From the high-probability setups posted last week using the support and resistance levels: MSFT reached 518 (-2%); META exceeded its extended bearish target of 659 (-7.1%), delivering an actual -9% move this week; XOM exceeded its bullish target of 181.7, jumping +2.3% this week; AMZN declined as anticipated, though it did not hit its -2.2% target; COST reached 1,016 for a bullish +2.7% move.

My approach uses price action and technical indicators to assess directional probabilities, and the support and resistance levels modeled here every Friday are used to set targets. This approach is clean, free of gut feelings, and entirely about specificity.

These pre-calculated levels anticipate turning points in price action. Representing consensus price levels where institutional volume and market liquidity tend to cluster, they act as critical structural anchors for traders.

They include the crucial central weekly level for the week and a crucial central monthly level for the month, helping to validate the directional expectations for each ticker. For example, AVGO was expected to bounce this week, contingent on the recovery of its CWL; because that setup was not triggered, traders were protected against a premature buy.

Central Weekly Level

The S/R levels include a set of seven lines, three resistances, three supports, and one central level that validates bullish conditions when the price is above it, and bearish conditions when the price is below it. It establishes the core equilibrium price for the trading week.

This SPX chart shows the CWL provided in this publication since January 2026, see the effect of losing it and how healthy is momentum when the price is above it. Worth noting: This is the second weekly close in a row below the Central Weekly Level (W).

This level is updated every Friday for the week ahead including SPX, SPY, and all the tickers in the watchlist (details below).

Risk Management Framework: The CWL define invalidation points for bullish setups when it is breached, and it invalidates bearish setups when it is recovered, allowing for precise stop-loss references and objective risk-reward ratios considering the levels above and below the CWL.

Central Monthly Level

The CML represents major structural support or resistance. When a market undergoes a sharp correction holding the CML often distinguishes a routine sector rotation from a broader market breakdown.

Institutional algorithms heavily monitor monthly levels to rebalance portfolios, making a sustained breach of the CML a powerful signal of a larger trend change.

The CML posted here each month for QQQ since 2025 makes the case on how relevant is to lose the CML. That level acted as resistance this week after being resistance since the beginning of October, the recovery is taking too long.

For this reason the support and resistance levels work for traders and long-term investors.

These levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.

The Weekly and Monthly Levels are posted here for each ticker of this watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

If you trade some of these tickers, this publication is for you, and when you are a paid subscriber you can post your preferred tickers in the premium chat every Saturday and your customized weekly levels are returned on Sunday.

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And in case you missed it, yesterday I posted the fundamental analyses for META, TSLA, SPCX, and NFLX. They have been upgraded to an enriched downloadable analysis with price targets for short, medium, and long term.

Today’s Content:

• Weekly Levels for the Watchlist

• Monthly Levels for the Watchlist

• Combined Levels

• Daily Plan for Monday (SPX and ES=F)

Let’s begin.

WEEKLY LEVELS - More Selloff Next Week?

Tickers marked in red closed below next week’s CWL and anticipated momentum is bearish, the distance they have to jump to flip momentum from bearish to bullish and provide signals that a bottom can be in is the percentage in each cell. See the difference in most tech names versus other tickers:

Read more

This week’s selloff is not unexpected, neither the destinations considering specific price levels that I have been highlighting in the premium / paid content: 7684.7 for SPX / 765.6 for SPY, and 29,647 and 29,235 for NDX / 720 and 711 for QQQ. Those levels were exceeded today, in one of the most bullish month of the year. Remember again: price action is primal, seasonality can be ruled out when technical signals anticipate the opposite move.

For this week, the bearish setups documented last weekend in the Weekly Compass played out: the bearish ones like NVDA, AMD, and QQQ reached bearish modeled targets, while COST, WMT, and NFLX reached their bullish targets (1,000, 116+, and 72.7 respectively) during the week.

Why are these Support and Resistance Levels important?

They identify potential support and resistance zones, assess overall market bias, and anticipate turning points in price action. They represent consensus price levels where institutional volume and market liquidity tend to cluster, they act as critical structural anchors for traders.

The S/R levels remove emotional bias by providing levels where price is statistically likely to react, stall, or reverse. They include a central level, (monthly, weekly, or daily), trading above a central level validates bullish bias, while trading below it signals a defensive or bearish stance.

Central Weekly Level

The S/R levels include a set of seven lines, three resistances, three supports, and one central level that validates bullish conditions when the price is above it, and bearish conditions when the price is below it. It establishes the core equilibrium price for the trading week.

This QQQ chart shows the CWL provided in this publication since March 2026, see the effect of losing this level and how healthy is momentum when the price is above it.

This level is updated every Friday for the week ahead including all the tickers in the watchlist.

Risk Management Framework: The CWL define invalidation points for bullish setups when it is breached, and it invalidates bearish setups when it is recovered, allowing for precise stop-loss references and objective risk-reward ratios considering the levels above and below the CWL.

Central Monthly Level

It works in the same way but the monthly levels are much wider in general, the principles are the same as the CWL. The CML represents major structural support or resistance. When a market undergoes a sharp correction holding the CML often distinguishes a routine sector rotation from a broader market breakdown.

Institutional algorithms heavily monitor monthly levels to rebalance portfolios, making a sustained breach of the CML a powerful signal of a larger trend change.

The CML posted here each month for the SPX since 2025 makes the case on how relevant is to lose the CML:

For this reason the support and resistance levels work for traders and long-term investors.

These levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.

The Weekly and Monthly Levels are posted here for each ticker of this watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

If you trade some of these tickers, this publication is for you, and when you are a paid subscriber you can post your preferred tickers in the premium chat every Saturday and your customized weekly levels are returned on Sunday.

Subscribe now

Today’s Content:

• Weekly Levels for the Watchlist

• Monthly Levels for the Watchlist

• Combined Levels

• Daily Plan for Monday (SPX and ES=F)

Let’s begin.

WEEKLY LEVELS - Will the Selloff Continue?

Tickers marked in red are set to open below next week’s CWL and momentum is bearish, the distance they have to jump to flip momentum from bearish to bullish and provide signals that a bottom can be in is the percentage in each cell. See the difference in tech names versus other tickers:

Read more

For example, I anticipated a bullish reversal for GOOG based on technical indicators illustrated transparently to paid subscribers last Saturday, providing the central weekly level (CWL) of 341 as the trigger/confirmation. That move materialized on Monday, and the initial upside target was modeled at 349.4, the zone reached on Thursday and revisited today. The weekly move was +2.2% 🎯.

TSLA was set as a high probability bullish setup as well, setting 363.7 as the conditional level to hold as support, that central weekly level was respected yesterday when the market declined, the stock surpassed its weekly target of 381.5 gaining +3.3% this week 🎯.

Bullish expectations for COST were also documented with technical indicators shared on Saturday. The central weekly level was set at 918.5, holding above that threshold validated the bullish thesis. The upside targets were established at 933.1, and 945.6. By Tuesday, 933 was surpassed, and by Thursday the 945.58 target flipped to support. The stock gained +2.9% this week 🎯.

Given the precision of these levels, they are solid references to set a stop loss as well: AVGO, moved according to my bullish expectations, 372 as the bullish extended target was surpassed by Tuesday (+5% move 🎯), leading up to 384.14 before a measured rejection. When a target (372) is breached and flipped to support, it allows traders to lock in gains or set stops the level reached and let the price action to confirm any reversal by a breach of the level. We will study why the bullish setup is still in play.

AMZN as a bullish setup gained +4.3% 🎯 by flipping our modeled target 258.8 to support, SPCX presents a case like AVGO: reversal from the surpassed target of 169 +6.4% 🎯, but the bullish case continues in play; not to mention that SpaceX signed a major deal that provides SpaceX with the specific wireless frequencies needed to power its “Starlink Mobile” initiative, allowing Starlink satellites in space to beam cellular signals directly to ordinary smartphones.

Weekly levels work for swings or short-term moves, monthly levels for long-term positions, both are modeled and combined here every Friday for you, allowing to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the bullish or bearish considerations for each stock, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning… actually since Friday afternoon.

My Core Watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

If you trade one or some of these securities this publication is for you, and if you’re interested in other stocks or ETFs, you can submit them as paid subscriber using the premium chat, and their levels are modeled for next week, and posted during the weekend in the Paid Subscribers space, where you can find support and resistance guidelines. Find them here:

When you subscribe to the paid plan, you also unlock my library of educational content with real-life charts explaining how technical indicators work. 2 ebooks can be downloaded when upgrading:

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Today’s Content:

• Weekly Levels for the Watchlist

• Monthly Levels for the Watchlist

• Combined Levels

• Daily Plan for Monday (SPX and ES=F)

WEEKLY LEVELS

The intra-week reversal disrupted the technical structure for the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) and the semiconductors (SMH, NVDA, AMD), as outlined below. Because this recent rally has been heavily driven by tech and energy, these levels will be essential next week to validate any potential bounce, or to enforce the bearish targets presented below if key support layers fail to hold.

• Tickers highlighted in red: tickers facing vulnerability losing critical support.

• Tickers highlighted in green: Assets maintaining relative bullish momentum.

All the tickers listed above are in this executive report:

Read more

The stock market experienced choppy, indecisive price action in the SPX and ES Futures struggled under the weight of surging bond yields. For most of the week, the 10-year Treasury yield surged as high as 5.35% early Thursday to set a fresh 24 year high, while the 30-year yield touched 5.62%, the highest level since 2002. This bond sell-off was fueled by a combination of fears that a resilient economy would keep interest rates higher for longer and escalating conflict involving Iran.

Mid-week data kept investors on edge by presenting a mixed economic picture. The August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index showed cooling inflationary pressures at 3.4% year-over-year, while second-quarter GDP was revised upward to a robust 2.2% annualized growth rate, increasing the odds of a rate hike.

The narrative flipped on Friday following the release of September’s nonfarm payrolls report. U.S. employers added just 29,000 jobs, significantly missing the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 84,000. While the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%. Although this pointed to a slowing labor market, Wall Street welcomed the news as a sign that the Federal Reserve will likely stay on hold in October, triggering a steep retreat in Treasury yields and a major relief rally across the major indices. As of today the probability of a rate hike sits at 20%… one week ago it was at 64%.

During the week, the SPX traded inside a weekly range between 7,709 and 7,609, as a spike in the Volatility Index kept the index below its key weekly level of 7,609. The VIX jumped 10% through yesterday, and I noted in yesterday’s daily update: “There are chances for the VIX to decline tomorrow given today’s intraday reversal.” This daily retrace in the VIX (and subsequent bounce in the SPX) remains part of a broader macro move analyzed yesterday that still warrants caution.

Staying within their respective level ranges, QQQ oscillated between a Monday bottom of 732 and an upper zone of 752 today, while the semiconductor ETF (SMH) traded between 598 and 629. Every single one of these levels was modeled in advance last week, proving how effectively they frame price action and map out where institutional algorithms are likely to react.

Every Friday I model the levels for the week ahead for over 30 securities these levels provide the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions well ahead of the opening bell.

The Weekly and Monthly Levels are Modeled for this Watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

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Today’s Content:

• E-mini Futures: Analyzing the Structure Signaling Caution

• Weekly Levels for the Watchlist

• Monthly Levels for the Watchlist

• Combined Levels

• Daily Plan for Monday (SPX and ES=F)

ES=F: Analyzing the Structure

During these days I like to emphasize that I have been bullish since the end of March (in the middle of the panic) as I was in 2025 since April. When technicals suggest bullish price action or a major bounce I navigate accordingly, when the structure shows cracks I am neutral and anticipate them so you can manage your risk while navigating the market.

The chart may be self explanatory, considering the divergences that have preceded pullbacks and corrections, anyway let’s study the indicators and assess the most relevant elements including the different volume perspectives plus the weekly and monthly levels that must be watched since a loss of them can trigger a significant decline:

Read more

A gap represents a distinct break in the price action of an asset’s chart. It occurs when the price of an asset opens at a significantly different level (either higher or lower) than its previous day’s closing price, with no trading occurring in the price range between the close and the open.

Visually, this creates an empty space or “hole” on the chart, which is often highlighted by traders (as seen in the yellow boxes on your chart). Gaps typically occur when significant news, earnings reports, or economic data are released while the market is closed, leading to a sudden shift in supply and demand before the next trading session begins.

Price action is generally considered a continuous flow. A gap interrupts that flow, meaning that not every price level between the previous close and the new open was traded.

From a technical analysis perspective, this skipped price range represents an area of “inefficiency” or a “vacuum” where normal buy and sell orders were momentarily absent.

Why are they usually “filled”? (And why do algos fill them?)

The phrase “filling the gap” means that the asset’s price subsequently moves back into the empty price range created by the initial gap.

There are several market-based reasons why this often occurs:

1. The “Price Vacuum” Effect: As mentioned above, the price range within a gap has not been “auctioned” or tested. When the price retraces back to this level, it is often met with less resistance because there were few, if any, prior orders executed there. This makes it easier for the price to traverse that specific zone.

2. Profit Taking and Retesting: Often, a gap is caused by an emotional, one-sided move (e.g., panic selling on bad news or euphoria on good news). Once the initial momentum slows down, traders who profited from that move may start taking gains, causing the price to pull back. This pullback naturally gravitates toward the last known price point before the emotional move occurred; the pre-gap closing price.

3. Algorithmic Trading (Algos): Modern markets are dominated by algorithmic trading systems. Many of these algos are programmed to recognize technical levels like the ones update every week here, including unfilled gaps. Algorithms often treat these empty zones as “imbalances” or “liquidity voids” that need to be corrected.

Algos may act as a stabilizing force by aggressively buying into an oversold gap down (anticipating a reversion to the mean) or selling into an overbought gap up. This systematic trading pressure helps facilitate the move back to “fill” the gap.

With all that said, today’s move improved the price structure we have been tracking during the week. However, the question is not IF but WHEN will the gap at 7,657 will be filled for the SPX; the chart below highlights with a yellow rectangle gaps printed by bullish moves during the last months, see that sooner or later they were filled. The one opened on May 5th had bullish continuation with a +4% move before a rapid flush happened in the beginning of June wiping out the bullish move. The same happened with the gap opened on August 4th, with the price gaining 2.5% during the next days until the move was completely wiped out by September 10th.

Will this time be different for the SPX? No, it won’t. We will navigate the move aware of this magnet which the sooner it gets filled, the better for bulls. From here the clock is ticking for any bullish move, and the way how we have navigated price action has been with the modeled support and resistance levels. We didn’t wait for a -4% loss in June, the central weekly level of that week at 7,559 was breached on June 5th triggering bearish momentum capital and gains protection from a bearish move that bottomed at 7,237. Same case on September 8th when the central weekly level of that week at 7,651 was breached (as anticipated), protecting capital and gains from a drawdown to 7,507.7

The central weekly level (CWL) and the layers around where institutional algorithms react are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning. Subscribe to the paid plan and unlock the levels for next week for every ticker in our watchlist.

Our Core Watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

If you trade or invest in some of these securities, this publication is for you.

Subscribe now

When you upgrade to the paid plan, you unlock three core publications each week, along with exclusive member benefits:

→Wednesday: Market Intelligence and fundamental analyses.

→Friday: Support and Resistance Levels for the week ahead.

→Saturday: The Weekly Compass, featuring an in-depth technical immersion.

In addition to our weekly publishing schedule, your membership includes three immediate advantages:

→ Instant Ebooks Access: Download my two foundational technical analysis ebooks directly from the Market Intelligence Library. (click here)

→Daily SPX & ES=F Levels: Receive daily levels assessing short-term momentum and potential reversal signals.

→Customized Level Modeling: Every Sunday, submit your watchlist stocks in the paid subscriber chat. Their specific institutional levels are modeled for the week ahead and published directly to the site.

All content is available at SmartReversals.com.

Today’s Content:

• Weekly Levels for the Watchlist

• Monthly Levels for the Watchlist

• Combined Levels

• Daily Plan for Monday (SPX and ES=F)

Let’s begin.

WEEKLY LEVELS

The distance to the CWL next week is tight for the SPX and the e-mini futures, and stocks like NVDA, AMZN, GOOG, and TSLA, are among the ones that are already with bearish flags. On the other side SMH, PLTR, and AMD look strong. The levels around the CWL for each security is where institutional algorithms react:

Read more

A very volatile but successful week has come to an end. Last weekend, I posted high-probability setups, see their targets below:

Bearish setups:

• DIA: Reached the target at 514.7 🎯 (a -2.1% move versus Friday’s close).

• SPY: Reached the target at 750.5 🎯 (a -1.8% move).

• IWM: Reached 281.1 🎯 (a -2.5% move).

On the bullish side:

• META: Reached 671 🎯 (a +3.6% move).

• NFLX: Reached its target at 79.4 🎯 (a +2.6% move).

• WMT: Made it to 108.6 🎯 (a +1.3% move).

• AMD: Target of 550.1 reached 🎯 (a +6.6% move).

MSFT reached 488 for a -1.5% move 🎯 , LLY did not move in the bearish direction as expected, but the invalidation level of 1,122.6 served as a reliable reference point to protect capital, sitting just 0.6% away from Friday’s close. Other considerations like being bullish on GOOG or SPCX were posted, they made it to 348.0 (+3.7%) and 155.8 (3.1%) respectively.

Every single target mentioned was based on the levels I model every Friday for the week ahead, focusing on zones where institutional algorithms react. For example, SPY bottomed on Wednesday at 747 against a bearish target of 748.6, and IWM bounced precisely at 281, hitting the exact target.

Over the past two weeks, we have studied how to manage these levels, including the implications of closing the day above or below a bullish target, as well as holding above versus below supports. Access all the key learnings here:

These levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.

My Core Watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Unlock this valuable information, the weekly compass, and the daily tracking using levels for all the tickers.

Subscribe now

Today’s Content:

• Weekly Levels for the Watchlist

• Monthly Levels for the Watchlist

• Combined Levels

• Daily Plan for Monday (SPX and ES=F)

WEEKLY LEVELS

The reversal on Thursday was solid and anticipated in Wednesday’s publication. The question is: is the bottom in? Why are MSFT and META suggesting a bearish reversal? What are the implications of the NFLX selloff? Why is the Dow Jones (DJI) not out of the woods yet? All the levels are detailed below. Let’s begin with what the E-mini futures chart suggests:

Read more

Another highly successful week has come to a close. The high-probability setups posted last week played out with an impressive success rate, hitting our price targets with high accuracy:

• DIA: Reached the bearish target of 522 for a -2.2% move 🎯

• SPY: Crossed the bearish target of 761.8 for a -1.1% move 🎯

• AMD: Comfortably exceeded the 504 target for a +5.5% move 🎯

• VXX: Spiked well above 18.5 for a +4.4% move 🎯

• AVGO: Touched 373 for a +4.2% move 🎯

• META: Reached the bullish target of 660 for a +7.1% move 🎯

• SPCX: Made it to 154.1 for a +4.2% move 🎯

• XOM: Invalidated the bearish thesis by recovering 161.3 (a +1.1% move)

• WMT: Invalidated the bullish thesis by losing 106.4 (a -0.7% move)

• GLD: Stayed below the invalidation level (-0.3% move)

Performance Summary:

• 7 successful trades reached their targets, averaging a 4.1% gain.

• 3 invalidated trades breached their invalidation levels for an average move of 0.7%.

Unlock Next Week’s Levels

Unlock the levels for next week covering our entire watchlist. These levels are modeled fresh every Friday to give you the precise information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday.

You do not have to wait for the opening bell to map out your plan or choose which securities to trade. Here, you have the exact distances to essential levels and setups indicating whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, allowing you to make calm, informed decisions ahead of Monday morning.

Our Core Watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Subscribe now

What You Get as a Paid Subscriber

When you upgrade to the paid plan, you unlock three core publications each week, along with exclusive member benefits:

→Wednesday: Market Intelligence and fundamental analyses.

→Friday: Support and Resistance Levels for the week ahead.

→Saturday: The Weekly Compass, featuring an in-depth technical immersion.

In addition to our weekly publishing schedule, your membership includes three immediate advantages:

→ Instant Ebook Access: Download my two foundational technical analysis ebooks directly from the Market Intelligence Library. (click here)

→Daily SPX & ES=F Levels: Receive daily levels assessing short-term momentum and potential reversal signals.

→Customized Level Modeling: Every Sunday, submit your watchlist stocks in the paid subscriber chat. Their specific institutional levels are modeled for the week ahead and published directly to the site.

All content is available at SmartReversals.com.

Perks for ALL Paid Subscribers:

When you upgrade to the paid plan, you unlock two immediate advantages:

Instant access to download my two ebooks on technical analysis. Includes all my Market Intelligence and educational library.

Customized Level Modeling: Every Sunday, you can post the stocks of your interest in the paid subscribers chat, and their specific WEEKLY institutional levels are modeled for the week ahead and published directly to the paid site. (Founding Members Receive the customized MONTHLY levels as well)

Founding Members

Subscribers in this tier receive a daily downloadable file at 6PM featuring key levels for all tickers in our regular watchlist, plus an expanded watchlist covering 40 additional popular tickers. This package includes a comprehensive daily market analysis, an expanded Watchlist Tracker, and SmartScreener results delivered every Sunday to prepare you for the week ahead. The customized Weekly and Monthly Levels are downloadable. All of this is updated in one place: the Founding Members Exchange Hub.

Next week brings the FOMC meeting, where the Federal Reserve will decide whether to raise or maintain interest rates amid persistent inflation and resilient labor data. Higher or sustained interest rates make bonds and fixed-income assets more attractive to institutional investors, which can trigger market turbulence. That is why using clear references to set targets and protect capital, like these levels, is essential.

Keep in mind that ES Futures are losing bullish momentum by dropping below the 5week moving average and printing a bearish MACD crossover. Similar setups have been followed by increased volatility, with the price eventually pulling back toward the 20-week moving average. This week, only the 10-week moving average was tested. The weekly support and resistance levels for the futures are also listed below, along with their bearish targets if the central zone is lost. Additionally, the daily plan for Monday is included here for SPX and ES=F with narrower levels.

Today’s Content:

• Key Learnings This Week

• Weekly Levels for the Watchlist

• Monthly Levels for the Watchlist

• Combined Levels

• Daily Plan for Monday (SPX and ES=F)

Key Learnings This Week

We examined real-life charts and introduced the daily Watchlist Tracker, giving paid subscribers a live view of our watchlist status. This institutional-level approach pays off: a 7:3 success rate speaks for itself, and the daily educational content served as reliable guidance. We will do the same thing next week.

Throughout the week, we studied how to utilize the Setups Blueprint and the modeled support and resistance levels that drive these targets, here are the links to three publications to bookmark:

7 Key takeaways to bookmark and have next to your screen include:

Read more

To avoid premature moves, I rely on daily levels to validate each thesis. For today, 7,730 served as the anticipated central daily level (CDL) dictating bullish or bearish momentum. Once price broke below that level, it pushed directly into the confluence of the 7,704 daily level and the 7,707 central weekly level, where the index found support. Anyway the weekly structure lost momentum as we will analyze in the paid content.

Among the high-probability setups:

Every Saturday I post the strongest setups combining technical analysis and modeled support and resistance levels. These are the results for this week:

• 🎯 WMT reached 108 (+4% move).

• 🎯 SPCX reached 149 (+5.6% move).

• 🎯 SMH validated the bearish thesis by breaking 555 and moving toward 538 (-2% move); indecisive price action on the 4H and daily timeframes on Tuesday signaled a reversal was coming.

• 🎯 AAPL reached the extended bullish target of 330.5 (+3.5% move), after which the level triggered an institutional algorithmic rejection with precision.

• 🎯 IWM reached our bearish target of 292 and extended the move to 289 (-1.7% move).

• 🎯 SPY breached the bearish target of 762.5, securing a -1% move.

• 🎯 NFLX reached 83.1 (+1.7%).

• ❌ XOM opened the week above 159, invalidating the bearish thesis.

• ❌ AMZN: The central weekly level of 263 provided capital protection on Monday morning during regular market hours; price moved toward the bearish target of 250 before bouncing to fill the gap.

That represents 7 successful setups versus 2 invalidations for the week. The combination of technical indicators shared transparently in the Weekly Compass, paired with our modeled levels based on price action, multi-timeframe confluence, and key support and resistance zones, continues to prove effective even in choppy markets.

Unlock the levels, analysis, and setups for next week plus the daily updates by becoming a paid subscriber.

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In this market, once a target level is reached, stop-losses (now functioning to lock in gains) should be trailed closer to current price action.

The setups blueprint published every week highlights my top picks. However, if you are trading a specific stock, index, or ETF, such as META, IBIT or TSLA, which are tickers that I mentioned favored a bullish move(In the case of TSLA for a gap fill only), you can still leverage the blueprint, it provides complete setups across our entire coverage watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

The 4-hour chart shows how these levels work as reversal or consolidation zones; the lines posted here were modeled the previous Friday ahead of the week. Interestingly, the same pattern from last week is repeating today, and there is a gap below. The CWL for next week is below with all its support and resistance levels for the SPX, SPY, ES=F, and every security on our watchlist. If you trade TSLA, MSFT, IBIT, VXX, or another from the list above, the levels for those securities for next week and the month of September are here.

Today’s Content:

• Weekly Levels for the Watchlist

• Monthly Levels for the Watchlist

• Combined Levels

• Daily Plan for Monday (SPX and ES=F)

Let’s begin.

What You Get as a Paid Subscriber

When you upgrade to the paid plan, you unlock three core publications each week, along with exclusive member benefits:

→Wednesday: Market Intelligence and fundamental analyses.

→Friday: Support and Resistance Levels for the week ahead.

→Saturday: The Weekly Compass, featuring an in-depth technical immersion.

In addition to our weekly publishing schedule, your membership includes three immediate advantages:

→ Instant Ebook Access: Download my two foundational technical analysis ebooks directly from the Market Intelligence Library. (click here)

→Daily SPX & ES=F Levels: Receive daily levels assessing short-term momentum and potential reversal signals.

→Customized Level Modeling: Every Sunday, submit your watchlist stocks in the paid subscriber chat. Their specific institutional levels are modeled for the week ahead and published directly to the site.

All content is available at SmartReversals.com.

WEEKLY LEVELS

These levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.

For next week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August will be released, and its to be seen if reduction in oil prices have reduced the CPI.

Tickers highlighted in red like TSLA have a lot of work to do to flip bearish momentum, today’s move gained traction in many megacaps:

Read more

The U.S. stock indexes closed lower on Monday, August 31, 2026, as geopolitical tensions flared and oil prices surged. Despite the daily losses, both the SPX and the NDX secured winning months for August with +2.6% and +4.2% respectively.

Risk appetite came under pressure after U.S. forces conducted military strikes against Iranian rocket launchers along the Strait of Hormuz; the jump in crude prices reinforced fears of inflation, compounding the hawkish sentiment left behind by the Fed chair on Jackson Hole on Friday. Last Saturday we studied in the Weekly Compass the 57% probability for a rate hike this September, today the probability sits at 65%.

Since today is the end of the month, it’s time to update the monthly levels for September. That is our focus today. Let’s remember that the monthly levels are essential for both investors and traders, since they speak to a longer-term price structure; we have learned from March 2026 and 2025 how the price can be very volatile when that level is lost.

The monthly levels below are updated for our watchlist. If you invest or trade in some of these securities, this information is for you.

Our Core Watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Unlock this information by upgrading your subscription to the paid plan!

Subscribe now

What You Get as a Paid Subscriber

When you upgrade to the paid plan, you unlock three core publications each week, along with exclusive member benefits:

→Wednesday: Market Intelligence and fundamental analyses.

→Friday: Support and Resistance Levels for the week ahead.

→Saturday: The Weekly Compass, featuring an in-depth technical immersion.

In addition to our weekly publishing schedule, your membership includes three immediate advantages:

→ Instant Ebook Access: Download my two foundational technical analysis ebooks directly from the Market Intelligence Library. (click here)

→Daily SPX & ES=F Levels: Receive daily levels assessing short-term momentum and potential reversal signals.

→Customized Level Modeling: Every Sunday, submit your watchlist stocks in the paid subscriber chat. Their specific institutional levels are modeled for the week ahead and published directly to the site.

All content is available at SmartReversals.com.

Today’s Content:

• Monthly Levels

• Daily Plan for the SPX and ES=F

• Combined Levels for SPX, ES=F, AAPL, AMZN, TSLA, NVDA, META, GOOG, MSFT

Let’s begin.

MONTHLY LEVELS

The Dow Jones, Small Caps, and very important, the semiconductor sector are all showing weakness by the loss of this level, as seen in the red/blue column on the right of the table. The SPX and NDX are not too far above this key level.

Read more

• Inflation Focus: Warsh stated that with the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge sitting at 3.7%, prices are running too far above the 2% target. He warned, “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.”

• Monetary Tool Reaffirmation: He clarified that short-term interest rates remain the Fed’s principal tool to combat price pressures, and noted he would be “hard pressed” to describe current financial conditions as restrictive.

• Limiting Forward Guidance: Warsh advocated for a “quieter” central bank that avoids overcommitting to future decisions, stating that excessive forward guidance “risks creating ambiguity in the name of clarity.”

Following the speech, the markets adjusted to the likelihood of higher-for-longer monetary policy, just yesterday, the probability for a rate hike in September was 36%, today the number sits at 57%. Short-term Treasuries sold off sharply, sending the 2-year Treasury yield up 11 basis points to 4.34%. Meanwhile, major stock indices and risk assets like Bitcoin pulled back as profit-taking emerged: The SPX reached the weekly level of 7,763 and the confluence with the daily of 7,772 set enough resistance until 11:30AM, and the index fell straight to 7,700, a daily level posted yesterday in my daily SPX and ES=F levels.

During these days I have emphasized on patience, and the high risks of chasing price action when major gaps are being printed, last night I noted how NVDA rallied while other semiconductor darlings like AMD and MU fell in the red, today the daily level for NVDA (226.4) and for AMD (476.4) worked well as early warnings for a reversal since both stocks fell -4.6% and -2.3% respectively.

Probability of Rate Hike in September during FED Meeting:

Despite of the market reaction, the SPX fell marginally today, -0.25%, and QQQ dropped -0.65%. However, IWM lost -1.35%, and semiconductors (SMH) cratered -3.5%. Last Saturday in the Weekly Compass, I anticipated how critical this week was for semiconductors, and not only because of the NVDA earnings, but because some megacaps were in a make-or-break position. AMD, for example, lost its 20WMA for the first time since September 2025. I noted last week that the trendline was important, but price action suggested bearish continuation. Once again, price action and the conviction in the candle told the truth. The same case applied to SMH. For NVDA, the net weekly move was just +1.3%, printing a large weekly indecisive candle that contains an internal gap at 213.

In choppy tapes like the one observed this week, the support and resistance levels modeled every week work as a reliable frame for upcoming price action and validate or invalidate directional theses coming from technical indicators. The examples below are for IWM and SMH using the 4-hour timeframe. Notice how the CWL modeled the Friday ahead of each week worked as a bullish-above and bearish-below reference, while the support lines below acted as targets and bouncing references. This week, the rally on Thursday failed to make it above the CWL for either IWM or SMH. The indecisive candles added probabilities for a bearish reversal, which proved to be the case today.

These levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning. Always focused on our core watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Upgrade to the paid plan, and unlock the levels for next week and view the complete report showing the distance of each security from its CWL for next week, allowing you to assess risk. With these levels, you can effectively anticipate targets.

What You Get as a Paid Subscriber

When you upgrade to the paid plan, you unlock three core publications each week, along with exclusive member benefits:

→Friday: Support and Resistance Levels for the week ahead.

→Saturday: The Weekly Compass, featuring an in-depth technical immersion.

→Wednesday: Market Intelligence and fundamental analyses.

In addition to our weekly publishing schedule, your membership includes three immediate advantages:

→Daily SPX & ES=F Levels: Receive daily levels assessing short-term momentum and potential reversal signals.

→ Instant Ebook Access: Download my two foundational technical analysis ebooks directly from the Market Intelligence Library. (click here)

→Customized Level Modeling: Every Sunday, submit your watchlist stocks in the paid subscriber chat. Their specific institutional levels are modeled for the week ahead and published directly to the site.

All content is available at SmartReversals.com.

Upgrade here:

Get 20% off forever

Setups Recap:

Last weekend, using these levels, a bearish reversal was anticipated for XOM, triggered if 164 was lost, the price fell until finding support today at 155 for a -5% move, both levels were modeled last Friday ahead of this week.

The setups blueprint presented bullish setups for NFLX targeting $82 for a +3% move, same for PLTR with a 185 as target for a +3% move, for V the bullish target was 380 for a +2.6% move. The setups include bearish moves for traders who manage out options, leveraged ETFs, or simply shorting: AMD was posted as bearish with 450 as target for a -4.9% move completed on Monday, SMH targeting $544 for a -2.9% move. All these levels were modeled last Friday for this week. Unlock the levels for the week ahead considering all the watchlist mentioned.

Let’s begin.

WEEKLY LEVELS

The highlighted column on the right shows the percentage that each security must gain in order to set bullish momentum references. I have seen in social media a lot of relief after today’s muted move in the SPX, and yes, see in green the SPX, but with very small cushion above the Central Weekly Level for next week.

Small Caps (IWM), Semiconductors (SMH), individual names like TSLA, XOM, and LLY are part of the ones that must jump in te proportion highlighted to validate any potential bounce, but most interestingly, NVDA closed the week in bearish territory when considering the levels; anyway, price action didn’t show conviction as mentioned already.

NFLX continues constructive, GLD and IBIT are in a normal consolidation, AAPL looks promising, while GOOG, META, and AMZN are validating my theses from last week:

Read more

The SPX declined following a high probability setup posted last weekend, the index lost on Monday the anticipated Central Weekly Level (CWL) of 7,773. The CWL has proven to be a key threshold to define bullish conditions when the price is above it, or bearish conditions when the price is below it. The bearish destinations modeled in advance for this week were 7,729, 7,673, and 7,630. All of them worked as levels that framed this week’s action, with 7,729 acting as resistance on Wednesday, 7,630 acted as support zone on Thursday, and by Friday 7,673 was the key zone for the bounce, with the SPX closing just one dollar above it at 7,674.

Let’s Study a Chart with and Without Levels:

The NDX ETF QQQ shows today a loss of the diagonal that was recovered last week, suggesting a false breakout and potentially a gap fill in progress, with the price aiming at 701.5. But let’s see the chart below with monthly levels.

Same chart with Monthly Levels:

The CML is a key line that when lost the price usually gains bearish velocity, and very important, the layers below become bearish destinations as indicated by the blue arrows on the same chart, sometimes the first support works as it was the case in June, sometimes the second one is reached as it happened with precision in July.

Having these levels help to anticipate zones where institutional algorithms are likely to react. This example is for the monthly levels that are relevant for longer term investors and traders.

Let’s Explore the Weekly Levels for the SPX:

For swings and shorter-term trades in general, and probably for instruments using leverage, the weekly levels are key, they help traders to navigate the monthly levels that are wider, so gains, and mostly losses, demand levels with a narrower range.

The levels for the SPX modeled last Friday included the CWL at 7,773 with a set of bullish and bearish layers. Technical indicators suggested a bearish move as I wrote in the Weekly Compass, the CWL was breached so the bearish levels came in play.

See the chart WITHOUT levels, and the same price action for the week WITH weekly levels, see how 7,729 acted as resistance on Wednesday, 7,630 as support area, and 7,673 as the area where the price closed. The way how institutional algorithms react is impressive.

These Monthly and Weekly levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning, not rushing that morning. The levels are generated for our core watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Unlock the levels for next week, price action continues weak. When you subscribe to the paid plan, you also receive daily levels for the SPX and ES=F with a market update.

Subscribe now

WEEKLY LEVELS

Read more

Macroeconomic data drove the S&P 500 to a brand-new historical high this week, though macro exhaustion caused a slight market decline by Friday:

Inflation Data Sparks a Rally Earlier in the week, the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures boosted equity markets. The wholesale inflation reading (PPI) remained unchanged month-over-month, boosting optimism that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate adjustments at its September policy meeting. This data originally catalyzed a rally on Thursday, pushing the S&P 500 to a record close near 7,800.

Late-Week Pullback: A Slowing US Consumer The initial rate-pause optimism was tempered on Friday by economic data indicating that the primary engine of the US economy is cooling. July retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6%, missing expectations of a slight increase. Concurrently, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index registered a disappointing decline, signaling that macroeconomic pressures are causing consumers to dial back spending.

In summary, the expectations as of today are:

• Probability of a Hike: ~31%–34% chance of a 25-basis-point increase.

• Probability of a Hold: ~65%–69% chance rates remain unchanged.

Corporate Highlights & Semiconductor Volatility Reddit (RDDT) surged 12% today on news that the platform will officially be added to the S&P 500 index prior to the opening bell on August 18.

Meanwhile, semiconductor firms experienced broad fluctuations:

• Sandisk (SNDK): Soared over 35% this week following strong revenue guidance.

• Applied Materials (AMAT): Dropped -5% today despite beating earnings.

• Micron (MU): Gained 10.7% this week suggesting the bottom is in.

(Note: MU and AMAT are tracked daily using levels in the Founding Members Exchange Hub).

High-Probability Trades This Week These setups shared last weekend performed exceptionally well:

• SPCX: Reached our extended target of 142.8 for a 7.3% gain 🎯.

• NFLX: Reached its extended level of 78.7 for a 6% gain 🎯.

• WMT: Gained 3% this week, crossing our 114.8 target 🎯.

• TSLA: Reached our extended target of 347 for a 5.8% gain 🎯.

• AMZN: Fell as anticipated. Its 4.3% weekly loss crossed the 267 first target 🎯 and is getting closer to 261.

Modeled last Friday, these levels have proven essential for setting targets AND managing risk. This week, expectations for bullish continuation in AAPL and IBIT were invalidated when they lost their central weekly levels at 310 (-1%) and 36.4 (-1.1%), respectively. Using these levels correctly offers a significant improvement in risk to reward ratios: average gains sit at 4%, while average invalidation is just 1%.

Upgrade your subscription to the paid plan, and receive modeled price levels on Fridays for the week ahead, Weekly Compass with technical analysis and high probability setups on Saturdays, market intelligence on Wednesdays, plus daily levels for the SPX and ES Futures.

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Let’s study the levels for next week for our watchlist as usual:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

These levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.

In case you missed, this week I posted the fundamental updates for AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, AMZN, GOOG, META, and SPCX. Get facts and objective information here:

Let’s begin,

WEEKLY LEVELS: AUGUST 17TH - 21ST

With the FOMC meeting minutes dropping next week, market indecision is reaching a boiling point considering that not everything across the market is aligned for a continuation rally.

See below the S&P 500 hovering right at its central weekly level (bullish above it, bearish below it), but the Dow Jones has already slipped beneath it. Under the surface, divergences are growing: NVDA and AMD are flashing relative strength, while AVGO sits in negative territory and the Magnificent Seven show a fragmented mix of setups. Use the red/green highlights as a guide:

Read more

The defining economic event occurred on Friday morning when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, drastically missing expectations of an 83,000 gain. Revisions also shaved another 103,000 jobs off prior months. While this signaled a clear cooling in the labor market under the weight of regional energy strains, equity investors cheered the data. The weak payroll expansion sharply lowered the probability of an upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate hike, causing the 10-year Treasury note yield to slide to 4.63%.

High-Probability Setup Performance

On the corporate side, several bullish events unfolded throughout the week:

• PLTR: Delivered as one of our high-probability bullish setups 🎯, gaining 39% following a strong earnings report detailed in my Monday’s daily note.

• SPCX: Advanced 22% during the week. Subscribers were alerted to a breakout earlier 🎯, reinforced in yesterday’s note highlighting its bullish conviction candle. By providing the key bullish-above-level at 111.9 alongside support-and-resistance combinations to navigate the bounce, the stock recovered its central monthly level, marking a structural change.

• TSLA: Hit our extended target of 328 for a 5.4% gain 🎯.

• META: Bounced as expected, completing a 6.3% move 🎯.

• GOOG: Reached its extended target of 381 for a 6.9% gain 🎯 on Tuesday before reversing precisely from that modeled zone.

• GLD: Remained bullish as anticipated, surpassing its extended target of 388 🎯 to notch a 7.3% weekly gain.

• MSFT: Hit our bullish target of 491, securing a 5.8% move 🎯.

• AAPL: Its weak setup did not trigger the expected decline. While the central weekly level (CWL) was not recovered, the setup remains valid as of today.

6 out of 7 setups were accurate, with the average gain at 11%

The Power of Disciplined Technical Analysis

All of the bullish setups proved correct, delivering major gains backed by disciplined, neutral technical analysis and modeled support and resistance levels. Every single price level mentioned above was calculated last Friday in advance for this week, proving once again that institutional algorithms react directly to these zones, see the exact reversal point on GOOG or the weekly close on TSLA.

These levels are modeled every Friday to provide the exact data needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You never have to wait for the opening bell to build your trading plan. You gain precise distances to essential levels and clear setups indicating whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, empowering you to make informed, calm decisions ahead of Monday morning.

Unlock the updated levels for next week modeled for this core watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Subscribe now

As a paid subscriber, you receive three core publications every week:

• Friday: Weekly and monthly levels updated.

• Saturday: Detailed charts and elaborated high-probability setups.

• Wednesday: Market intelligence, last Wednesday I posted educational content about combining indicators with S/R Levels.

In addition, you get DAILY UPDATES providing daily SPX levels for the day ahead and key events to watch. For example, last Monday I alerted subscribers to the bearish reversal on AMZN, last Wednesday I reinforced the bullish setup forming for GLD and AVGO, and last night I highlighted the bullish setup for SPCX.

Next week, I will provide daily updates on SPX as usual, plus SPCX and all the magnificent seven. Subscribe! One setup pays for the whole subscription.

Let’s begin.

WEEKLY LEVELS

Most securities have gained bullish momentum, as reflected by the highlighted column in the right-hand table (green = bullish conditions, red = bearish conditions). Next week, I will track the Magnificent Seven on a daily basis, given that two of them have lost key levels while another two are likely to consolidate.

SPCX and PLTR have a solid safety cushion, as demonstrated by our analysis showing the percentage distance to their central weekly levels (CWL):

Read more

In the noise of daily market fluctuations, traders often chase price action blindly, reacting to headlines long after institutional algorithms have already made their moves. To navigate this complexity, structured quantitative analysis provides a distinct edge. By utilizing a multi-timeframe framework of monthly, weekly, and daily levels, you can map out the market’s roadmap well before the opening bell.

These levels are not arbitrary lines; they anticipate where institutional algorithms are likely to react. These levels are waypoints, to successfully trade them, you must assess real-time price action alongside overbought and oversold conditions.

Here is how to structure, sequence, and execute this multi-timeframe approach for maximum clarity.

Understanding the Hierarchy of Timeframes

When analyzing market structure, each timeframe serves a specific tactical purpose:

• Monthly Levels (The Macro Momentum): Monthly levels provide the clearest, widest visibility of the broader market structure. Being above or below the central monthly level dictates the prevailing long-term momentum and defines whether the broader regime is bullish or bearish. These levels are key for (long term) investors who don’t move their money every week or day.

• Weekly Levels (The Swing Blueprint): Weekly levels are ideal for managing multi-day swings and positioning through intermediate trends. They act as the primary battlegrounds where institutional participants defend or abandon significant positions.

• Daily Levels (The Execution Grid): Daily levels work exceptionally well for short-term swings and scalps. More importantly, daily levels serve as early warning signals when an asset is attempting to reverse. Because the central daily level is typically recovered or lost before the weekly level, it acts as the vanguard of a shift in momentum.

For investors, weekly and daily levels dramatically improve entry precision. I remember when I posted on social channels on June 25th that Micron (MU) was poised to fill its gap following an after-hours rally and likely initiate a sharp reversal from extreme overbought conditions. Some comments brushed it off, arguing that a pullback was fine for long-term holders. That pullback ultimately plunged the stock from 1,254 down to 737 by July 29th, marking a staggering 41% drawdown. It makes you wonder how easy it is to stomach a capital loss of that magnitude while staying optimistic about clawing that money back, relying solely on hopes of further bullish continuation to make the original decision make sense.

Is There an Order of Considerations?

Yes. While monthly levels set the overarching momentum, the sequence of interaction across timeframes dictates how a reversal unfolds.

Consider a typical bottoming process during a sell-off. When an asset is deeply oversold, the recovery rarely happens all at once. First, the price must reclaim the central daily level, signaling early intraday exhaustion from sellers.

We saw that transparently on March 31st, I anticipated a bounce coming in the Weekly Compass posted on March 28, that week I began to post daily executive notes with daily levels for the SPX, when the central daily level (CDL) was recovered, a first bullish signal was printed, then the weekly was recovered, and we managed momentum updating levels to manage momentum and risk.

Next, if buying pressure persists, it pushes the price up to challenge the central weekly level. Only when institutional accumulation forces the price through the weekly threshold does the asset target the central monthly level.

As we saw recently during the market’s mid-week recovery, an asset can reclaim its daily level, push through the weekly level, and put a reversal into play before the monthly level is even reached (the current case for Semiconductors SMH and AMD). Conversely, if a rally stalls out right at a declining weekly level without ever threatening the monthly structure, it confirms that the broader macro trend remains dominant and the bounce is merely a corrective counter-trend move.

These levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.

Our Core Watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Unlock the levels for next month and week, plus my daily updates for the SPX by subscribing to the paid plan. I post three core publications per week (this is one of them), and daily updates with levels for the SPX.

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These levels work very well as targets, we saw this week the setups I posted last weekend reaching their targets: NFLX 🎯, AAPL 🎯, SMH 🎯 (bearish), AMD 🎯 (bearish) , WMT 🎯, COST 🎯, AMZN 🎯, JPM 🎯, and MSFT 🎯. Trading is about probabilities and risk management, 9 high probability setups reached their targets, the levels kept us away from META that was expected to bounce, and in the case of XOM the setup is still in play on its way to the target. Setting targets is key to secure profits by closing a trade or updating the referral levels to set stop losses while the price has directional conviction.

Let’s continue with this educational content and the updated levels for AUGUST and NEXT WEEK.

Reading the Price Action at the Level

A level is only as good as the price action delivering the asset to its doorstep. To determine whether a level will hold, flip, or break, we evaluate in this publication price action and momentum indicators:

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It was a volatile and difficult week on Wall Street, as major U.S. indexes finished lower across the board. The market logged its first back-to-back weekly losses since March, primarily dragged down by anxiety over massive corporate spending on artificial intelligence (AI), surging energy costs, and new trade policies.

Key Market Drivers This Week

• Big Tech AI Spending Jitters: Q2 earnings sparked investor concern as GOOG dropped -7.8% for the week following raised capital expenditure guidance for AI data centers, while TSLA plummeted -17.8% amid negative free cash flow driven by massive investments in AI and robotics.

• Geopolitical Escalation & Energy Volatility: Oil (CL=F) surged over +10.6% reaching $90 following Middle East hostilities and Red Sea tanker attacks.

• Rising Treasury Yields: Energy price spikes fueled inflation fears as I highlighted on Wednesday, creating downward pressure on equity valuations ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.7% and rate hikes are on the table for this second half of the year.

My Weekly Compass last Saturday was titled "Triple Threat" based on three key factors that effectively injected downward pressure on the stock market this week. Now, a fourth factor has emerged, extending the list of hurdles for an already weak price action that we have been tracking:

• New Tariff Regime: The U.S. administration introduced a permanent tariff overhaul ranging from 10% to 12.5% on 60 trading partners under Section 301, triggering sharp declines across Asian and global chip-heavy tech indices.

As mentioned recently, these events serve as catalysts for a pullback in overextended charts. The semiconductor euphoria needed a reset, much like we saw in precious metals earlier this year, and in individual names that seemed unbeatable in 2025 such as PLTR, MSFT, META, and NFLX. This is why technical analysis is essential: when prices are overextended, it can flash warning signs for long-term investors who want to avoid 30% drawdowns or even deeper losses. Just look at the current price of those names versus their highs, which is the same story for MU, QCOM, and MRVL despite Jensen Huang's call for "the next trillion-dollar company," alongside many others. This is why this publication works for both traders and long-term investors. From the recent bullish opportunities highlighted recently, AAPL and XOM stand out, both are up 15% this month alone.

Levels as Confirmation Tools

A chart can be overbought printing warning signs studied here for subscribers, and in order to avoid premature decisions (selling too soon or buying too early), the support and resistance levels modeled here in advance for the next week and month set a bullish above / bearish below line that after more than two years of this publication have proven their worth to make more informed decisions.

Today, most of the securities tracked here closed below their central weekly level for next week. More critically, this week the SPX and many other securities lost their central monthly level (CML); as we have studied, monthly levels validate price structures for the longer term. For this week, for example, the SPX and QQQ were considered to set a bullish move to 7,549 and 717 respectively, but they breached their central weekly levels (7,490 -0.4% and 702 -1%) invalidating the thesis and acting in this case as capital protection. The weekly levels also help establish specific targets, as was the case this week for JPM, GLD, IBIT, and ETHA (Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs), which reached their respective targets of 353 (+3.5%), 382 (+3.7%), 37.3 (+3%), and 14.6 (+5.2%). The favorable risk-reward ratio that comes with applying disciplined level management is clear.

These levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.

Our Core Watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Unlock this valuable tool by upgrading your subscription to the paid plan, paid subscribers receive three core weekly publications (Friday, Saturday, Wednesday), plus daily updates for the SPX and its daily levels. Next week is packed with earnings I will also track daily MSFT, META, QCOM, AAPL, AMZN, KO, V, and XOM.

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Let’s begin,

WEEKLY LEVELS

As the analysis below highlights, the SPX, NDX, DJI, ES, and NQ futures are all in negative territory along with their corresponding ETFs (SPY, QQQ, DIA), alongside IWM and SMH. The percentages highlighted in red indicate the moves needed to recover bullish momentum. Interestingly, a few tech stocks and non-tech mega-caps remain in the green:

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Wall Street endured a volatile week as a deeper pullback in major technology stocks snapped recent winning streaks in the SPX. For that reason, we closely tracked the QQQ / NDX in our daily market analysis this week.

Semiconductors remain under pressure. This week alone, the market darlings continued to be punished: AMD lost -11%, MU -13%, AVGO -7%, and NVDA -4%. The semiconductor ETF SMH we tracked throughout the week, fell -9%.

China’s newly unveiled “Moonshot” AI model and valuation concerns added pressure to the weak conditions we identified in last Saturday’s Weekly Compass for the SMH, NVDA, AVGO, and AMD, especially considering their failure to hold essential price levels after reversing from overbought conditions I highlighted in this publication in June, when many people were euphoric and skeptic about the overbought conditions in semis.

Technicals are proving their worth alerting about overextensions in semiconductors, just as they did with GLD and SLV since March, with PLTR since November, and with NFLX since July 2025.

That said, the NDX dropped -4% this week, breaching a highly relevant level and printing a major crossover. July is not proving to be as bullish as macro analysts suggest based on statistics (biased when there is a bias in years selected). A few weeks ago, I shared in this publication that the winning streak for July is starkly different if you compare the last 20 years to the previous 20; the story is completely inverse. For that reason, I always recommend analyzing charts and remaining skeptical of statistical tables that do not reflect the price action story behind every year analyzed.

Friday is our day for mapping the support and resistance levels for the week ahead. Below, you will find the levels where institutional algorithms are most likely to react. Numbers always tell the truth, and the weekly lows for TSLA, AMD, NVDA, and GOOG to name a few, they matched these levels (376, 468, 197, and 345.5, respectively)… same for the highs of the week for AAPL, WMT, and XOM to name a few (337, 117, 149, respectively).

Weekly levels for the week ahead are updated below for the following:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

These levels are modeled every Friday to help you assess bullish or bearish conditions and risk/reward before the market opens on Monday. You do not have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan; you have the distances to essential levels and the setups indicating whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, allowing you to make informed, serene decisions before Monday morning. Unlock these levels by upgrading to the paid plan:

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When you subscribe you also receive daily updates for the SPX with daily levels.

Before continuing let’s remember my note last night about NFLX considering the selloff, paid subscribers knew the very high odds for a reversal at the opening, the stock bounced from -12% at the opening ($65, where weekly and monthly modeled levels matched) to -7% at the close (reaching the modeled weekly level of 69), that was an easy +5% scalp. The key levels to navigate NFLX next week are below. Be careful being bearish in this market without levels that can anticipate reversals.

Regarding the SPX, the 20 daily moving average was breached and the oscillator is falling from overbought conditions, with a lot of space before getting oversold. Losing this moving average is usually concerning, the levels for the SPX and complete analysis is below. Plan ahead your trading week identifying the securities that are in bearish or bullish conditions and their distance to their targets + invalidation levels, get access now:

WEEKLY LEVELS

The SPX is in bear zone, the level to recover in order to flip momentum is not as close as in previous days, and the context for tech is more challenging.

There is always an opportunity, red marks are the securities struggling, green marks in the same column are the stocks in confort zone:

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Every Friday, I model support and resistance levels for the week ahead, covering the S&P 500 (SPX), key ETFs (QQQ, SPY, IWM, GLD, SLV…), all the Magnificent Seven (NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, TSLA…), and other mega-cap stocks. My technical analysis is designed to identify momentum or the probability of reversals based on established indicators, which I transparently detail in every publication for every stock, making this content action-oriented and educational.

I model these levels to reflect where institutional algorithms are likely to react. By utilizing the central weekly, monthly levels as validators, we can navigate price action with greater precision.

How to Use These Levels

These publications provide a first look at whether a security closed above or below key levels for the upcoming week, allowing you to gauge whether the initial condition is bullish or bearish. These levels serve as validators for momentum; for example, a “bullish setup” remains valid as long as the price sustains itself above the central weekly level.

Recent Performance & Validation:

• SPX: This week, the SPX maintained a bullish bias by staying above 7,457, the bullish target based on a modeled level was 7,566 for a +1.1% move. The index climbed +1.2% 🎯.

• GLD: The bullish setup targeted of 383.3 (+1.4%). The ETF achieved this move before retracing 🎯.

• IBIT: Our weekly Bitcoin study set 35.8 as a bullish target for this ETF (+2.6%), with a potential extension to 36.7 (+5.2%). The high of the week was 36.7 🎯, confirming how institutional algorithms respect these levels.

• WMT: We anticipated a bullish reversal with a recovery of 112; the bounce was validated once this level was reclaimed, the bullish target for next week is here.

• MSFT: The setup was bullish above 380.9 aiming at 401.8, the monthly level at 396.18 acted as resistance, interrupting the weekly setup. This highlights the importance of combining weekly and monthly levels as presented below.

• ETHA: We highlighted a bullish setup targeting 13.4 (+3.9%). The price high reached 13.7 🎯, surpassing target and nearly hitting our secondary target of 13.9.

• SMH: I noted on Wednesday that the target of 563.3 (for a -4.9% move) cousl be considered reached, as the actual low was 566.83 🎯.

These are examples of levels as targets based on technical analysis. These levels also work as risk management tool. For example, NFLX suggested a bullish setup, the target was 80.4 for a +3.5% weekly move but the stock vanished again, good news for subscribers, the invalidation level was 75.7, a reference to set stops based on your own risk tolerance, in order to avoid the selloff to 72.5 as the weekly low where many traders could have capitulated.

Subscribe, the S/R levels are modeled every Friday, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade (jumping among tickers); you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.

The Levels are Modeled for this Core Watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Important Notes:

• SpaceX (SPCX), as the new stock added to the Nasdaq100 (NDX) is modeled here every week as well.

• Daily Levels for SPX are provided to subscribers with the market analysis, that is a major upgrade to my service. Subscribe now to the paid plan, prices will change soon, and current PAID subscribers WON’T (again, WILL NOT) see a single change in their subscription price. Become a paid subscriber now!

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Current Market Outlook

This remains a choppy market, particularly within the technology sector. While the Magnificent Seven are showing resilience by bouncing from oversold conditions (as anticipated for META, AAPL, and NVDA), the semiconductor sector is still fighting to recover key levels and re-establish bullish momentum. SMH is not “out of the woods” yet; MU and AMD have gaps below acting as price magnets and TSM has a weekly shooting star still in play, just to mention few examples.

Let’s begin.

WEEKLY LEVELS

Securities marked in red are the ones in bearish territory at this point, and the percentage highlighted with red is the minimum required bounce to validate any bounce as bullish. See for example NFLX ahead of earnings and SPCX with a major requirement to be in bullish zone:

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Last week, the Weekly Compass highlighted a clear divergence within the technology sector: Semiconductors were signaling a bearish reversal, while the Magnificent Seven were showing deep oversold conditions in the daily backed by massive daily volume.

The results this week confirm this rotation. The semiconductor ETF, SMH, fell -9.7%. Micron (MU) served as a stark reminder of gravity, dropping -14% as the stock moved to fill the 1,083.3 gap I anticipated in the Weekly Compass. Conversely, the Magnificent Seven presented signs of awakening, with the following weekly gains: AAPL +8.7%, GOOG +6.4%, META +6.0%, MSFT followed with a +4.7% gain as a high-probability setup, AMZN +4.0% and TSLA +3.6% (despite today's flush). NVDA rounded out the group as the weakest performer with a weekly gain of +1.2%.

Beyond technology, both GLD and SLV are showing signs of a bounce, jumping 1.2% and 3.3% respectively, as the technical formations indicated oversold conditions last Saturday. Unlock all the analyses by upgrading your subscription to paid.

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The previous Weekly Compass can be found here:

Methodology: Data Before the Opening Bell

My approach is rooted in technical indicators transparently presented to subscribers every weekend. I model these support and resistance levels every Friday (or last day of the week as today) to provide the information necessary to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday.

You do not have to wait for the opening bell to formulate your trading plan. By providing the exact distances to essential levels and defining whether they will act as support or resistance, You can make informed, calm decisions well before Monday morning. This is why I publish this report every Friday (Thursday for this week) around 6:00 PM New York time.

As a perk, I’m posting daily levels for SPX for all paid subscribers, do not miss out, they work as early reversal signals when the central daily level (CDL) is breached.

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Last night, I highlighted the relevance of 7,484 as central daily level for the SPX, the price opened well above it, but the indecisive price action sealed the day when that level was breached by 11:30 AM, 7,448 was visited as a daily support, and in confluence with a key monthly level the price bounced to close with daily indecision.

The macro picture added significant weight to this price action. June hiring came in soft, with employers adding 57,000 jobs against a consensus estimate of 114,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, average hourly earnings rose 0.3%, and weekly jobless claims held steady at 215,000.

Price action rarely anticipate moves when earnings reports are posted, but reaction to economic news can be anticipated in a better way, the structure was and continues weak.

Watchlist Coverage

The levels are calculated for all securities on our watchlist, focusing strictly on mega-caps and high-volume ETFs. This ensures your orders are filled efficiently and that leveraged instruments remain readily available for your trading strategies (Space X is now part of our organic list!):

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

WEEKLY LEVELS & SEMICONDUCTORS

Before going to the levels, let’s study how damaged is the structure for semiconductors with the technical chart.

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Monthly levels set the structural tone for bullish or bearish momentum in an index or stock, while also serving as major boundaries that frame price action.

For example, NVDA traded during June between 233 and 191, which marked the resistance and support boundaries around the Central Monthly Level (CML) of 214. Once the CML was breached on June 5th, it validated a bearish momentum flip. A similar pattern played out with the SPX: once it lost its CML on June 5th, price found support at 7,302. What makes today’s price action interesting is the recovery back to 7,451, which is the Central Monthly Level for the month ending.

Below are the monthly levels for July. The recent bounce has been productive, the high volume highlighted in the Weekly Compass is being confirmed as a bullish signal, the SPX recovered 7,392 as indicated in the Saturday blueprint, reaching 7,491 as the primary target for the bounce 🎯.

Our Core Watchlist

The monthly levels are analyzed for these securities, if you invest in some of them, or are interested in a constant watchlist of megacaps and assets with high daily volume, this publication is for you:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Unlock this valuable information to assess momentum, targets, and risks.

Daily levels for the SPX are below as well.

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Remember, SpaceX (SPCX) is not part of the monthly and weekly levels.

MONTHLY LEVELS - Is the SPX out of the woods?

The response is below, also for the NDX, QQQ, SPY, all the magnificent seven, crypto and major megacaps and ETFs.

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On Monday, the S&P 500 fell 0.4%, breaching the central weekly level (CWL) of 7,493.7, as anticipated in Saturday’s Weekly Compass in the high probability setups. The SPX exhibited several underlying cracks in its price action, despite the 1.1% rally observed on June 18th before the long weekend.

Once our modeled central weekly level was breached, validating my bearish thesis, Tuesday saw steeper declines as South Korea’s KOSPI crashed 9.9%. This marked its sharpest fall in over three months and sparked a global semiconductor selloff (consistent with overheated conditions we have studied). As a result, the NDX tumbled 3.2%, and the S&P 500 retreated 1.44%. By the end of the week, the SPX reached my extended bearish target of 7,318.4, completing a 2.4% drop 🎯.

Other high-probability setups also played out with precision:

• AMD: Reached its bearish target of $510, completing a -5% move 🎯.

• SMH: Exceeded my bearish target of a 4.6% drop, closing the week -7% 🎯.

• MSFT: Hit $356 in a clean bearish move of -6.1% 🎯.

• GLD: Highlighted as a bearish setup, it reached $364.3 for a -5.8% decline 🎯.

The modeled S/R levels also set a risk management level, a price line that if breached invalidates the directional thesis, for this week DIA and JPM did not fall as expected, but their stop loss references were clearly included in the setups Blueprint at $517.4, and $327.4 respectively, for an average -0.5% from Friday’s close.

That means:

• Average gain of the high probability setups: +5.3% gains

• Average loss for invalidated setups: -0.5%

(For those new to the stock market, short selling allows both traders and investors to profit when prices fall)

Unlock the S/R levels for next week presented below by upgrading to the paid plan.

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As a perk, I’m posting daily levels for SPX for all paid subscribers, do not miss out, they work as early reversal signals when the central daily level (CDL) is breached.

My approach is rooted in technical indicators transparently presented to subscribers every Saturday, and these setups utilize specific, modeled price levels for the week ahead.

I model these levels every Friday to provide you with the information necessary to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You do not have to wait for the opening bell to formulate your trading plan. You are provided with the exact distances to essential levels and the setups indicating whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, empowering you to make informed, calm decisions before Monday morning.

Many traders make decisions before 8:00 PM Eastern Time on Fridays, when extended hours close across major brokerage platforms, another reason to post this every Friday around 6PM NY Time.

The levels are calculated for all securities on my watchlist, focusing strictly on mega-caps and high-volume ETFs. This ensures your orders are filled efficiently and that leveraged instruments remain readily available for your trading strategies:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

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The monthly levels section explains why the Structure is damaged.

Let’s begin.

WEEKLY LEVELS

The column highlighted with red markers presents the current distance to next week’s central weekly level (CWL). For example, AVGO must rally 4.4% before any potential upside can be considered technically valid. As you can see, there is red across the board. Regarding JPM and DIA, the current setup has simply delayed the broader move. In last night’s daily note, we reviewed the technical conditions for the Dow Jones, and those conditions are amplified in the financial sector. XOM is also suggesting a delayed move.

Keep the levels for the futures also included in mind, given the overnight price action:

Read more