• AAPL: My blueprint anticipated a decline to an extended target of 297 (-3.1%). It extended further, hitting its 3rd support at 290 for a weekly move of -5.3% 🎯.

• SPX: Targeted a -1.2% decline to 7,294. This acted as the support zone where the price bounced on both Wednesday and Thursday 🎯.

• MSFT: I expected a decline to 398.6 (-4.3%). The actual move went deeper to -6.3%, exceeding our bearish expectations 🎯.

• GLD: Targeted an extended bearish level of 383.7 (-3.2%). It bottomed below at 371 (-6.2%), hitting a weekly level we modeled and posted a week ago 🎯.

• VXX: My technical set anticipated a bounce to 26.1, with an extended target of 27. The exact top of the week was 27 (+7.2%) 🎯, marking another great hit.

• AVGO: Targeted 349. The weekly low was 370 (-4.1%). Profitable ✅, and directionally correct.

• BRK.B: Expected a move to 496.8 (+1.8%). Price action remained constructive above the central weekly level 👍.

All seven setups were directionally correct, with five hitting their exact targets, one still very profitable, and one still in progress. 6 out of 7 correct for a 85% success rate with a 5% average gain.

The Setups Blueprint includes targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in our watchlist. While I handpick the ones with the best technical conditions to reach their targets, paid subscribers who want to follow specific securities like QQQ, IWM, AMZN, TSLA, NVDA or others, they will always find them analyzed with precise price targets and clear bullish or bearish conditions.

For example, these setups were also included in the Setups Blueprint from last weekend:

• LLY: Target of 1181 (+4.4%) caught the exact top of the week 🎯.

• JPM: Target of 319 (+2.4%) was met perfectly today 🎯.

• AMZN: I forecasted a -2.9% drop to 239; the actual move reached -3.04% 🎯.

• META: The bearish target of 569.8 (-3.9%) was exceeded moving -4.39% 🎯.

Securities Covered Every Week:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

The Weekly Support and Resistance levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk/reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning. Unlock this golden tool by subscribing to the paid plan.

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As for the S&P 500, today’s move was constructive. However, the key resistance zone mentioned last night to our premium community was not recovered, the updated levels to consider a validation to bullish momentum are below.

WEEKLY LEVELS

Read more

Over a month ago, I updated my SPX bullish target to 7,638, utilizing the annual line that has been included in my charts since the beginning of the year. On Wednesday, I highlighted that this target could be considered effectively reached when the market printed all-time highs at 7,620. Following today’s sharp sell-off, that analysis has proven remarkably accurate 🎯.

When I establish a target for a weekly, monthly, or annual timeframe, I rely strictly on technical indicators and support and resistance models mapped out well ahead of price action. As my paid subscribers know, this is not the first time an anticipated top has precisely triggered a major sell-off; the February 2025 top stands as another successful example.

Yesterday at 6:00 PM New York time, I sent a special alert to subscribers warning of a major reversal sign that was flashing in real time. It was not necessary to wait for today’s closing bell to recognize just how precarious and risky the conditions had become for technology.

In yesterday’s note, I identified the SPX Central Daily Level (CDL) at 7,566 as our key “bullish above / bearish below” zone. I also flagged the Central Weekly Level (CWL) at 7,559 as a critical threshold that, if breached, would trigger a significant decline. Overbought conditions in the SPX (and across the technology sector specifically) were extreme as highlighted in recent publications analyzing the weekly patterns. The velocity of today’s sell-off is consistent with the market losing that key confluence zone, not to mention the subsequent loss of the Central Monthly Level (CML).

Bears broke through three crucial structural levels today in the SPX. We saw the same breakdown occur in the NDX and QQQ, both of which closed the day with major bearish conviction.

In last Saturday’s Weekly Compass, I anticipated a bearish reversal for AAPL, SMH, IWM, and AMD; as a bullish reversal for VXX. When I forecast these structural turns, I do so using precise, actionable numbers: the Central Weekly Level. Those exact levels and their corresponding targets are updated here every Friday exclusively for paid subscribers.

Ahead of the upcoming Weekly Compass release, I have already modeled the preliminary downside destinations to consider for the SPX. Upgrade your subscription today to unlock the technical analysis and protect your capital for the week ahead.

These levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.

Our Core Watchlist: If you trade any of these securities, this publication is for you:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

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Today’s report also brings several red flags considering securities that lost their Central Monthly Level.

SPX - Levels to Watch:

Read more

Hello everyone,

Today’s introduction is available in audio format, where the core benefits of our Support and Resistance framework are described. The audio also dives into the high-probability trades anticipated last Saturday for TSLA, AAPL, and MSFT, using them as fresh, real-world examples of the model in action. Below, you will find your fully updated weekly and monthly levels to guide your trading strategy for the days ahead.

These levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to watch levels, decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.

Our Core Watchlist

This publication consistently analyzes the following securities to provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions. Maintaining a consistent watchlist is key to improving performance; it allows you to refine the timing of your entries and effectively rotate capital as new opportunities emerge.

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Subscribe to the paid plan and unlock all the levels and premium content:

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If you enjoyed this audio format, make sure to tap that like button so I know to keep producing more content just like this.

Let’s begin. We will review the weekly levels first, followed by the monthly ones, and conclude with a combined view so you can easily anticipate critical confluence areas.

WEEKLY LEVELS

Among the main highlights, see how NVDA and GOOG flipped conditions, same as PLTR in both the weekly and monthly levels:

Read more

U.S. stocks advanced ahead of the long weekend, positioning the S&P 500 for an eight-week winning streak. This marks the longest weekly run for the benchmark index since December 2023. The S&P 500 rose 0.88% after approaching to our bearish target of 7,325 and bounced. The NDX gained +1.2% also after touching its bearish target of 28,609 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 2.2% during the week. This late-week strength emerged as investors absorbed falling government bond yields and a pullback in energy costs (Crude Oil fell -8.2% during these five days).

The positive finish capped a volatile five-day period defined by accelerating inflation and a global bond market selloff. April’s Consumer Price Index rose 3.8% year-over-year, surpassing market forecasts. This hotter-than-expected reading drove the 10-year Treasury yield toward 4.6%, its highest mark in over a year, while the 30-year yield climbed to levels unseen since 2007. Investors positioned for central bank rate hikes to combat inflationary pressure tied to Middle East geopolitical risk. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s April meeting backed this expectation, showing a majority of officials viewing rate increases as appropriate if energy-driven inflation continues. A 25 basis point hike is now fully priced in for this year.

Sectors and asset classes shifted materially under these macro conditions. Higher borrowing costs weighed on materials and utilities, both posting steep weekly declines. Corporate earnings drew sustained focus, particularly quarterly results from Nvidia (-4.4%) and major retailers like Walmart -8.5%). In digital assets, Bitcoin dipped below $80,000 early in the week and is closing Friday near $75K.

Support and Resistance Levels

Trading is entirely about probabilities and risk management, probabilities based on technical indicators that provide directional references for price action, and risk management using price targets and invalidation levels. Every Friday the support and resistance levels for the week ahead are modeled, these levels have proven to frame price action ad the Setups Blueprint posted in the Weekly Compass anticipated for this week:

Example of targets set for this week:

• LLY hit the bullish extended target of $1,069.9 (+6.5%) 🎯

• COST hit and crossed $1,075 (+2.6%) 🎯

• PLTR touched $138.0 (+3.0%) 🎯

• TSLA nailed its downside target, hitting our 394.2 modeled (-6.6%) 🎯

• IWM hit my bearish target of 270.8 (-2.4%) 🎯

Example of Risk Management:

• META was expected to print a bullish move targeting $627 (+2.2%), the primary move was bearish, so the invalidation level of $610.2 (only -0.7%) acted as a reference to manage risk, protecting capital from the selloff to $596.6 (-2.9%).

Every weekend I publish the setups for all the securities of our watchlist, I highlight the ones that I see with the highest probability given the market conditions, but you can choose your own, for example, the setup for V (Visa) anticipated 330 as target and 335 as extension target, with an invalidation level at 324. The high of the week was 335 🎯.

The levels covered every Friday for the week ahead include:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Subscribe to the paid plan, and unlock essential information for next week.

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SPX: The indecisive candle suggests caution and most likely a pullback next week. The Central Weekly Level that must be breached to validate that thesis and the potential targets are posted here.

Weekly levels for swings, monthly levels for longer term investments, they are here and the tables below show them combined.

WEEKLY LEVELS

Read more

U.S. equities retreated from recent record highs as geopolitical friction and a sharp bond market decline weighed on investor sentiment. The S&P 500 printed a muted week with a net gain of +0.13%, the Dow closed muted -0.1%, and the NDX declined -0.38%.

Sector dynamics told a divergent story. Energy outperformed sharply, rising +6.7% during the week (XLE), while high-growth equities bore the brunt of the selloff. Discretionary dropped 3.1%, reflecting renewed caution. Materials and utilities also surrendered 2% each as Treasury volatility rippled across the complex.

Macro sentiment remained clouded by competing crosscurrents. President Trump’s diplomatic visit to China fueled optimism around potential purchases of Boeing aircraft and agricultural goods, though formal trade agreements remain unconfirmed. Meanwhile, Middle East geopolitical instability sparked a significant bond market selloff as traders repriced for potential supply shocks, creating the additional headwinds that ended the week on a cautious note. Discussions of Chinese purchases of U.S. oil and expanded access for financial service providers like Visa continue to circulate, but confirmations have yet to materialize.

If you recently subscribed, my publication posted last Wednesday assess the roadmap for the SPX in 2026:

Link: → SPX: Why Bears Should Stand Ready

The Power of Levels: Performance Review

Support and resistance levels acted as essential references this week to validate momentum, protect capital, and set clear objectives based on technical indicators.

• For this week, our expectation for a bearish move in JPMorgan (JPM) was proven true. With a target of 296.3 (a -1.9% move), the level was reached with precision on Tuesday, and revisited on Friday.

• TSLA: Reached my bullish target of 445 for a 3.9% rally at the beginning of the week. As mentioned on Wednesday, caution was essential because the price looked overbought, as presented in my specific charts. This was a highly successful trade, and it highlights why setting strict targets at this market juncture is essential to avoid giving back gains, or why utilizing daily levels for narrower metrics to set tighter trailing stops.

• IBIT: Reclaimed its Central Weekly Level (CWL) and reached the bullish target of 46.4.

• MSFT: Validated my bullish reversal thesis after recovering its 416.1 CWL, hitting the 427 target for a 2.9% move.

• AAPL: Exceeded its primary 300.4 target and neared extended targets, maintaining its constructive multi-week structure.

• V: Recovered the 320 CWL on Monday and hit its 327 target (+2.6%) on Tuesday, where it is now consolidating.

• LLY: Triggered our risk protocols after jump-starting its bullish move ahead of schedule, overriding the expected initial bearish week. $964.2 was the risk management reference for shorts, and 1,011 was the extended. bullish target calculated in this publication. The high of the week was just 10 dollars above it. This highlights why strict execution and invalidation levels are critical.

All of those specific levels were modeled here one week ago. My methodology is based on technical analysis to assess momentum and identify potential bullish or bearish reversals. When providing an analysis, I establish these levels to anticipate exactly where algorithms are likely to react during the upcoming week.

The levels covered every Friday for the week ahead are:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Subscribe, and unlock essential information for next week. The Central Weekly Level is the bullish above / bearish below reference, and for next week the SPX has to jump to recover bullish momentum. Get the level with the bearish targets if momentum accelerates (or bullish ones if the price bounces).

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These levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.

When you subscribe, you also unlock all my Market Intelligence Hub, including educational content, 2 eBooks about technical indicators with real life charts, and special research focused on the SPX.

WEEKLY LEVELS

Red across the board, all the indices have work to do to recover momentum, and most of the magnificent seven must jump or the weakness could accelerate, mostly in the case of TSLA:

Read more

The U.S. stock market had a milestone week ending May 8, 2026, characterized by record highs and strong economic data that countered ongoing geopolitical tensions. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both hit fresh all-time highs as the “V-shaped recovery” and the “Three Weekly Soldiers” setups continue being validated.

This is the sixth consecutive weekly gain for the SPX and the NDX. Technology and semiconductors continued to lead the charge, fueled by persistent demand for AI infrastructure. Conversely, the energy sector lagged mid-week but saw late recovery as oil prices fluctuated.

April Jobs Report: The U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in April, nearly double the 65,000 expected. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, signaling a resilient labor market despite higher energy costs.

Jobless Claims: Initial claims marked 200,000 versus 205,000 expected, further reinforcing the narrative of economic stability.

Iran Peace Hopes: Markets were highly sensitive to news of a potential 14 point peace plan involving Iran. Renewed optimism for a diplomatic solution caused oil prices (WTI) to drop as much as 7.4% during the week.

The Q1 earnings season remains a primary driver for equity performance, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gained 26.2% during the week, while Micron had its best week in two decades gaining +37%.

Navigating Market Structure: The Power of Weekly Levels

Support and resistance levels allow us to define the direction of price action. By utilizing our “bullish above, bearish below” model, we can validate high-probability setups with precision. For this week, the Central Weekly Level (CWL) for the S&P 500 (SPX) at 7,203 acted as our critical line in the sand (or 717 for SPY). On Monday, the price attempted to breach this level, but the zone held as firm support. This defense fueled a rally that ultimately surpassed our bullish target of 7,368.

The price action was even cleaner for the Nasdaq 100 (NDX). The CWL of 27,458 was never breached (or 667 for QQQ), even during Monday’s volatility. Following a brief consolidation, the price moved systematically through each level. By Tuesday, the Nasdaq reached its second bullish milestone of 28,039, and after consolidating that afternoon, it continued higher with major conviction. Similarly, the IWM held its key level of 276.4 despite a momentary dip on Monday, eventually reaching our second bullish target of 285.

The efficacy of these levels was also evident in individual stocks: for TSLA we anticipated a CWL of 384. This level acted as precise support on both Monday and Wednesday, confirming the bullish bias we anticipated in the Weekly Compass.

GOOGL: After holding its 369 CWL, Google moved directly toward its bullish target of 397, finding resistance at that level.

The securities analyzed in this publication every week are:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Using support and resistance levels allows us to time momentum effectively. Weekly Levels for traders, Monthly Levels (also here) for both traders and Investors, subscribe and unlock the levels for next week.

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We validate a bullish thesis for the short term as long as price maintains its footing above the Central Weekly Level, while a breach signals a potential reversal. Furthermore, these levels help us set realistic weekly targets, as they correlate with the specific zones where algorithms frequently consolidate or validate moves.

Let’s begin:

WEEKLY LEVELS

Don’t chase the euphoria if the price is below these levels, and don’t short either if the price is above them:

Read more

This week has been one of the most consequential for the 2026 market, defined by a historic Federal Reserve meeting and a flood of top-tier economic data. The Fed opted to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% for the third consecutive meeting, but the decision was marked by a rare level of internal dissent not seen since 1992. Four officials broke from the majority, signaling a significant rift over how to handle the “oil shock” caused by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. With Brent crude hovering above $100 per barrel and headline inflation spiking to 3.3% in March, the central bank’s “wait-and-see” approach is being severely tested by rising energy costs and a resilient labor market, where jobless claims recently hit their lowest levels since 1969.

On the corporate front, the Q1 2026 earnings season reached a fever pitch as over 900 companies reported, led by the “Big Five” tech giants. Apple delivered a standout performance, surging over 3% on a revenue beat of $111.18 billion, while Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon faced intense scrutiny over their massive $700 billion AI infrastructure spend. Beyond technology, the energy sector took center stage as ExxonMobil and Chevron reported results that beat estimates amid the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz blockades—though headline profits declined sharply year-over-year due to unfavorable hedging and timing effects from the oil shock. Despite the geopolitical volatility, the S&P 500 has managed to absorb these shocks, with FactSet data showing a sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth, providing a fundamental cushion against the macro uncertainty.

As studied yesterday, April closed with a historical rally that was significantly stronger and more rapid than the recovery seen in April 2025. While there is clear bullish conviction and the long-term odds for continuation remain high, the very short term suggests a healthy pullback. This thesis is supported by indecisive price action on the daily timeframe and overbought conditions currently reflected in the RSI.

Also on the bullish front, I want to highlight today’s bounce off the 50DMA by the IGV Software ETF and leading software stocks in general. NOW, PLTR, CRM, ADBE, and many others I analyzed last Wednesday rallied today.

The purpose of the Wednesday publication is to provide market intelligence to both long-term investors and short-term traders, offering insights for informed decision-making. Links to recent publications are available below the chart.

My Most Recent Market Intelligence Publications:

And one posted since November about my 2026 SPX target:

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Upgrade to a paid subscription to unlock all of the premium content at smartreversals.com. Today, as with every Friday, I’m providing the S/R levels for the following securities. These levels frame price action and validate technical setups; if you trade any of these assets, this publication is essential for you:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Paid subscribers can suggest additional stocks, so the levels are modeled and delivered on Sundays.

Educational content about using Support and Resistance Levels:

• Support and Resistance Levels - How to Take Action

• Combining Weekly and Monthly Support and Resistance Levels

• Confluence - Find High Probability Setups Combining Indicators

• Mastering Options

• Anatomy of a Winning Trade

Let’s begin.

WEEKLY S/R LEVELS

Read more

U.S. equities ended a volatile week on Friday, April 24, with a stark divergence across major indices. Technology shares powered the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 to fresh record closing highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged behind to finish in negative territory. The Nasdaq emerged as the clear weekly winner, gaining 2.4% over the five days. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% for the week, to close at a record 7,165.08. However, the blue-chip Dow ended its three-week winning streak, falling 0.4% for the week to settle at 49,230.71.

Corporate earnings provided crucial direction for investors amid the macroeconomic volatility. Semiconductor companies drove much of the late week momentum, spearheaded by a historic 23.6% surge in Intel shares following strong first-quarter earnings and an optimistic financial outlook. This momentum sparked a broader rally across chipmakers, lifting peers such as AMD 14% and Qualcomm 11% in a single session. Tesla, the first Mag-7 reporting saw a weekly decline of -6%.

Software has been the second dominant theme this week (after Semiconductors). Interestingly, while individual names saw major sell-offs, the IGV (Software ETF) managed to close flat for the period.

The weekly chart below highlights bullish MACD crossovers over the last eight years, covering the 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2025 bear markets, alongside reversals in 2019, 2023, and 2024. Historically, 8 out of 10 of these signals were sustained, leading to continued bull trends. In only two instances was the signal invalidated, resulting in lower lows.

The data shows that bullish reversals at oversold levels (below zero) typically generate follow-through, which is the current case. For this month, the outlook remains bullish as long as the price stays above the 81.7 monthly level; a break below that mark would serve as an invalidation reference for the bullish thesis.

In addition to the technical analysis, a special fundamental study of Software was posted on Wednesday, providing a close-up on eight giants including PLTR, ORCL, CRWD, NOW, ADBE, PANW, and SAP. For investors and traders, the analyzed scenarios are a good read; some of these securities are showing interesting long-term opportunities. Get Access here:

• Software: Backbone of the Digital Economy

For new subscribers, three weeks ago another fundamental special was posted, that day for NVDA, TSLA, META, AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, and AVGO:

• Investing in the A.I. Era: The Magnificent Eight

Both specials analyze the context for each company and medium term scenarios related to their CAPEX recovery. Subscribe to the paid plan, and unlock the content.

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Find below the Support and Resistance levels for next week, including the crucial Central Weekly Level that validates momentum (bullish above / bearish below), and the Central Monthly Level that is crucial for both investors and traders, since it is breached few times per year and paid subscribers saw in March the implications of not recovering it quickly.

Maintaining a consistent watchlist is key to improving performance; it allows you to refine the timing of your entries and effectively rotate capital as new opportunities emerge. The levels posted every Friday begin with the SPX, and include the following as well:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

If you trade some of them, this publication is for you. Subscribe to the paid plan and unlock all the content at smartreversals.com, including educational publications about using support and resistance levels:

• Support and Resistance Levels - How to Take Action

• Combining Weekly and Monthly Support and Resistance Levels

• Confluence - Find High Probability Setups Combining Indicators

• Mastering Options

• Anatomy of a Winning Trade

Let’s begin.

WEEKLY LEVELS

Read more

The targets were based on these modeled support and resistance levels, and I was doubtful of some of them reaching their target considering the previous two rally weeks, but once again, these levels frame price action and in the same way that they worked in bearish weeks during march, they worked well during this bullish move.

Top Performing Setups

• Bitcoin / IBIT: This was my high-conviction play regardless of broader market action. IBIT hit the extended target of $43.7 and closed the week at $43.9, delivering a robust +5.7% move. If you trade Bitcoin the move is even better for a +9% this week so far. Bitcoin has a very high probability setup.

• NVDA: The bullish move based on the volume shelf acting as launchpad sent the price to the extended target of $200.4. The stock exceeded expectations, closing the week at $201.6 for a +6.9% gain.

• META: I have highlighted its fundamentals and oversold technicals. From the extended target of $684.8 (+8.7%), the stock surged to close the week at $688.5 with a +9.4% move.

• ETHA: The extended target was $18.1 (+6.4%). The ETF closed the week at $18.37.

• QQQ: The extended target was $663.3. The index reached $648.0, marking a strong +6.14% weekly gain that exceeded expectations.

• AAPL: The target of $266.5 (+2.3%) was easily cleared, with the price closing the week at $270.0 (+3.67%) actually nearing the extended target of 272.6 today during the day.

Target Hits and Technical Discipline

• NFLX: The stock reached and exceeded our extended target of $106.8 (+3.7%) prior to its earnings report.

  Strategic Note on Earnings: As seen with recent price action, the market is punishing stocks that do not provide perfect guidance. Trading through earnings is a lottery; setups can flip instantly regardless of technicals if the Street finds something unappealing. Same as 3 months ago, if a bullish target is reached, locking gains is prudent.

• JPM: Despite initial weakness, the price stayed above our invalidation level (CWL) of $304.6. It trended bullishly toward the $316.5 target, reaching a high of $314.9. Given the proximity, we consider this move constructive.

• Bounces: The expectations for relief bounces in PLTR, TSLA, and V all materialized.

Invalidation (1 out of 12)

• LLY: This was our only outlier. It lost the $934.0 invalidation level, ending the week down -1.3%. While the structure remains somewhat constructive, it must recover key levels to reclaim the bullish thesis.

That said, the Support and Resistance Levels proved their worth allowing us to anticipate potential targets and managing risk in the case of LLY thanks to the Central Weekly Level (CWL) that was breached.

Looking Ahead

The levels for the coming week are posted below, identifying the “Bullish Above” and “Bearish Below” zones for both the weekly and monthly timeframes. We will analyze the charts in full tomorrow to identify which securities have the highest probability of continuing their bullish momentum.

Securities Analyzed Constantly Every Week:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

The SPX is the core of this publication, and the rest of the watchlist combines sectors and assets, always with one principle: High Daily Volume that allows you to fill orders rapidly and use the options market if preferred.

Subscribe and get my two eBooks on technical analysis in my welcome email.

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Intriguing Chart : XOM

Hammer candle with high daily volume breaching the lower Bollinger band, oversold oscillator, a gap above today’s candle, and a gigantic gap when considering the volume at price (green horizontal bars). This is usually a good combination for a bounce.

Dead cat or a sustainable one? The answer is in the S/R levels below.

Let’s begin.

WEEKLY LEVELS

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When the market began its bounce on March 31, essential levels were reclaimed. First, the Central Daily Level (our “Bullish Above / Bearish Below” indicator) sat at 6,362. The price opened above this level, providing an immediate bullish signal to subscribers who use our levels for validation. Subsequently, our Central Weekly Level (CWL) of $6,458 “sealed the deal,” confirming the weekly reversal and validating the bullish setups for the SPY, DIA, IWM, and QQQ anticipated the prior week.

Last week, as market conditions improved, I posted a set of bullish setups with the following results:

• AMD: Exceeded its extended target of $234.3 (+7.7%), peaking at a +12.6% weekly gain.

• META: Highlighted for bullish continuation with an extended target of $629.2 (+9.5%); it closed the week at $629.86.

• AVGO: Surpassed its modest +5.7% extended target to reach a massive +18% gain.

• MSFT: Reached its extended target of $385 (a +3.3% move) before retracing.

• COST: The extended target as 1,036 for a +2.1% move, the price reversed exactly after touching that point on Thursday.

• SPY: With an extended target of $677.1, for a +3.2% move, the high of the week was $682, only five points above the target, allowing an easy profit taking or adjustments of stops.

• QQQ: $608.2 was the extended expectation with a +4.0% move, the actual weekly move was 4.4%

How are these high-probability targets set? They are derived from professional technical analysis and these modeled Support and Resistance levels, which are updated every Friday. Each setup includes a Central Weekly Level to manage stops and invalidate the thesis, along with primary targets, extended targets, and “inversion” levels if the setup flips from bullish to bearish.

Not all setups are bullish. For example, XOM was identified with a bearish target of $154.7 (a -3.7% move) as long as the price remained below $165.5. The actual weekly move was a significant -5.9%.

Unlock the Support and Resistance Levels for next week including these securities:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

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Having a constant set of securities help you managing rotations and anticipating moves in your favorite individual names.

Today I’m adding some historical charts that will provide references to manage the gap printed on Wednesday for the SPX and our securities in general, including the bearish gap for XOM and VXX.

Unlock essential information for your trading next week.

SPX: A Strategic Multi-Year Perspective on Key Support

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Modeled Support and Resistance Levels Framed Price Action

The pathway to a green close was not smooth. On Monday, the SPX extended its oversold conditions, moving toward the bearish weekly target of $6,216. Once the overextension concluded, also breaching the lower daily Bollinger Band, the price began the “imminent bounce” anticipated this weekend in the Weekly Compass, where I mentioned the following:

For the week ahead, there is a high likelihood of a relief rally. We will remain focused on the major indices, as the SPY, QQQ, IWM, and DIA are showing potential for a trend reversal. If they recover their Central Weekly Levels, we can begin considering individual setups.

During this turbulent environment, I am posting daily levels so the community can identify early signals of a bullish reversal. This allows us to act without waiting for a 2% move to recover the central weekly level, especially considering the distance from Monday’s close to our $6,458 key level.

That said, paid subscribers knew that reclaiming $6,362 on Tuesday would validate a bullish reversal. The subsequent layers of levels provided further validation and references for trailing stops as the price moved toward $6,458, our “bullish above / bearish below” level for the week. As observed this week, daily levels function well as intermediate targets.

Last night, I anticipated that the reversal candle set the stage for a potential gap fill, not only due to the price action’s structure but also because of the intraday reversal that placed today’s Central Daily Level at $6,579. Since this was above Wednesday’s close, that condition applied pressure to the price.

Trying to anticipate Trump’s specific comments would have been imprudent. While the market expected rhetoric favoring a rally (perhaps a retreat from Iran) that was not the case. Consequently, the market sold off 1.5% overnight, opening below yesterday’s gap. However, dip buyers jumped in above the CWL and at the stretched daily level of $6,494 shared yesterday with subscribers. The gap has now been filled for good, clearing the pathway for bulls who may have been concerned about that magnet.

There is one critical element to consider: the Central Monthly Level. I have shared this since Tuesday so paid subscribers could identify the key level that must be reclaimed to establish better conditions for longs. That level is still acting as resistance, and the current market structure suggests we are not yet out of the woods.

The current price structure can be compared not only with 2025 but with 2022 and many more bear markets, including 2018, 2008, and others. Two examples for the SPX:

The current structure is perfectly comparable with those years considering the sharp selloff and key monthly levels breached in March, the CML zone is definitive to consider bullish continuation or not in April. From our watchlist, many securities made it above that essential level, let’s study the combined Weekly and Monthly levels with their relative distance to the current prices.

This publication consistently analyzes the following securities to provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions. Maintaining a consistent watchlist is key to improving performance; it allows you to refine the timing of your entries and rotate capital as new opportunities emerge.

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Make sure you read my latest Market Intelligence publication, where you can see one single pattern that matches with the bear market bottoms during the last 40 years, including the crashes in 1987 and 2020. If we are in a bear market this measures the potential move remaining. I provide my point of view with also a clear and objective analysis. This is a must read for investors and traders.

• 40 Years of Bear Market Bottoms in one Pattern

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Unlock all the content and the essential levels for next week, they frame price action in every market environment.

Let’s begin with the levels.

WEEKLY LEVELS

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Geopolitical turmoil drove the risk-off move. Tensions escalated sharply on Friday following reported strikes on Iranian steel and power infrastructure and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil futures reversed early week losses to trade back above $100. Gold, historically the default safe haven is stable and recovered early week losses, the bearish reversal shows the worst slump since 2008. Bitcoin held between $65K and $72K, touching again our annual support level.

Last Wednesday we studied in a special edition about risk management, how difficult can the market be when the VIX is above 20, today the volatility index closed at 31, and the indices breached key support levels.

The publication mentioned presented examples of trailing stops for long positions, today I want to bring an example for short positions using the levels that I posted in the premium chat this morning. The levels were posted for all the magnificent seven, other major stocks, and of course, the SPX and key ETFs like QQQ.

Managing Levels for Short Positions:

The concept of “central level” refers for the price zone where a security is bullish above it, and bearish below it. The Central Monthly Level (CML) has proven to be a essential risk on/risk off threshold as we studied in previous publications. No good things happen below the CML. Needless to say, most of our equities studied lost their CML, just XOM and VXX are above it. There are monthly support and resistance levels that are modeled for each month.

Then we have the weekly levels and the Central Weekly Level (CWL), they work for swings, and when the VIX is high, the rapid moves among them are constant, as we have seen during eight weeks already.

Given the wide space among monthly and weekly levels, there are daily levels with intermediate layers that facilitate navigation or provide early reversal warnings.

Several securities were posted in the premium chat, QQQ was one of them and provides a real life example of trailing stops for shorts:

The price closed on Thursday at 573.8 (1), the CWL was 588.8 (next week’s updated below), in case of a reversal, waiting until 588 to turn bullish was a long shot, so it was worth knowing the CDL (2), and for today it was 577.3, that was much closer.

Bulls can stay safe out of any long below 577.3, so waiting is an approach. Bears can short the security given the high volatility index. in that case, shorting QQQ setting a stop above 577.3 was valid.

The price didn’t try to fill the gap at the opening, it continued the selloff, breaking below the weekly support of 571 (3), now flipped to resistance along with the monthly level of 573.6. When a level is lost and there is a short position, the stop can be moved above the new level lost (remember, not exactly at the same level, algos can touch them with precision as we have seen several times before.

The daily support of 569 was breached soon after the opening (4), then, at 1:15 PM approx., the daily support of 566 was breached (5), guess what, any stop loss could have been placed slightly above it. Last Wednesday we studied distances above or below a level.

The price closed close to the lows of the day, after approaching the extended bearish target of 561.5 analyzed in the Weekly Compass last week.

This publication constantly studies the following securities, if you trade some of them, this is for you.

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Megacaps: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

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Now let’s study the modeled Support and Resistance levels for next week, combined with the monthly ones, tomorrow the Weekly Compass comes with the momentum map, and all the charts with technical indicators using these layers to assess setups.

Unlock the updated levels, and the educational content posted last week regarding Trailing Stop Losses.

WEEKLY LEVELS

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Lately, the sell-offs have accelerated earlier in the week. While the S&P 500 recovered its Central Weekly Level of $6,700 on Monday, the price action vanished on Tuesday, and the decline intensified by Wednesday when that level flipped to resistance. Our downside levels were met: $6,555 acted as first line on defense on Thursday, and then $6,479 is where the price bounced on Friday. These modeled support and resistance levels continue framing the price action for the week ahead.

These price levels were published on Friday ahead of the weekly activity, you can see how accurate they are to frame price action, the price layers for next week are below.

QQQ opened above the CWL of $599, which was our “line in the sand” for bulls (CWL). Tuesday’s indecisive action signaled weakness, leading to an accelerated sell-off on Wednesday. While there was a temporary reversal attempt on Thursday, it failed to close in positive territory, and the QQQ bounced from its bearish extension target of $577.5 for the week that just ended, the levels for next week are below.

IWM: Already down -7.18% for the month. The bearish target of $241 was reached. After failing to consolidate the CWL on Monday and Tuesday, and on Wednesday $249.1 acted as firm resistance following the Federal Reserve’s announcement.

Geopolitical Context: As mentioned in recent Market Intelligence editions (links below), geopolitical uncertainty adds a layer of complexity that economic data cannot account for. Unlike an earnings or an economic report, there is no scheduled time for attacks on energy facilities. With both the U.S. and Iran showing no willingness for a ceasefire, the market remains sensitive to potential oil spikes and escalating fear.

Oil stabilized this week (-1.37%) at historical overbought conditions relative to weekly technical indicators while volatility remains above 25. If a resolution is not reached quickly, the resulting impact on inflation and the Fed’s pathway could lead to further structural decline in the stock market.

Make sure you read the latest Market Intelligence publications about Oil, they are essential for long term investors and traders:

• Oil as the New VIX: Blueprint for Extreme Moves

• FED Trapped: Oil, Inflation, Policy Dead End

Market Breadth & Structure: That said, the market structure is suffering extreme damage. The 200-day moving average has been breached for the SPX, DJI, and NDX. Participation is at critical lows: only 12% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 20-day moving average, 19% for the Nasdaq, and 15% for Small Caps. While these levels have marked local bottoms in the past, next week’s updated Central Weekly Levels will be essential to monitor for any potential rally or a continuous selloff.

Unlock the Support and Resistance levels for next week, this publication models the levels for these securities:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

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Premium subscribers can suggest the stocks of their interest during the weekend, so an additional set of levels is posted on Sundays in the paid Subscribers Chat.

Let’s study the levels for next week to navigate where we stand.

WEEKLY LEVELS

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Escalating conflict in the Middle East remained the main driver of market pressure. An Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz sent energy costs soaring. Oil futures closed at $99. Rising fuel costs combined with unexpected labor market weakness to stoke fears of slowing growth and rising consumer prices. The U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.4%.

The energy shock also took a toll on high-growth technology companies. Major tech firms faced selling pressure as rising electricity costs squeezed margins at power-hungry AI data centers. Amazon was particularly hard hit, shedding roughly $120 billion in market value over the week. In sharp contrast, digital assets showed resilience. Bitcoin is up this week +7% as of now, recovering its Central Monthly level. Ethereum also outperformed the broader market, gaining nearly 9% during the week.

The Support and Resistance levels shared last week continue to accurately frame price action. The S&P 500 found firm support at our modeled $6,667 level to start the week, followed by a tactical spike toward the $6,857 zone. However, persistent choppy conditions triggered a reversal on Wednesday; the index breached its Central Weekly Level (CWL) and ended the week back in the bearish zone, retesting its weekly lows.

The QQQ followed an identical trajectory, oscillating between $611 and $590, both levels modeled last week, executing a sharp “inverse U-turn” mid-week. This pattern was mirrored by the IWM, which tagged our $245 support level on both Monday and Friday, despite a brief intra-week spike above its CWL.

This “inverse U-turn” was observed across the board, impacting TSLA, AAPL, META, AMZN, and even SLV. Of the equities we track, only WMT, COST, and NVDA managed to close above their respective bullish/bearish CWL thresholds, with XOM showing notable strength due to current oil price dynamics.

As anticipated last Saturday, price action has remained exceptionally choppy. Today, I want to illustrate the specific implications of VIX thresholds and price positioning relative to the Central Monthly Level (CML). These factors signaled the current environment, a series of rapid reversals within a single week. I touched on this last Wednesday, and today, I want to make those concepts graphic.

Before continuing, this publication consistently analyzes the following securities to provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions. Maintaining a consistent watchlist is key to improving performance; it allows you to refine the timing of your entries and effectively rotate capital as new opportunities emerge.

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Subscribe now to the paid plan, unlock the support and resistance levels modeled for next week, and all the educational content about trading with them:

• Support and Resistance Levels - How to Take Action

• Combining Weekly and Monthly Support and Resistance Levels

• Confluence Zones - Find High Probability Setups

• Mastering Support and Resistance Levels

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Conditions Accelerating Choppy Price Action

Losing the Central Monthly level for a short period like in November happens a couple of times per year, however, few weeks ago I highlighted that staying below this level for long is a concerning condition from corrections and bear markets. Currently the price for the SPX and most of the securities from our watchlist is below this level.

(These Central Monthly Level is modeled every month and is posted every Friday in this publication for the SPX and the same 40+ securities mentioned above).

The second chart is a zoom in of the Central Weekly Level for the same period, see the price breaching the “C” marked in green in some weeks as part of the normal price action of a bull market. Since February, the dotted area shows how volatile has been the price printing multiple invalidations or reversals during the same week.

The zoomed chart includes the Central Weekly Level AND the support and resistance levels modeled with this level and for each security; see the black horizontal lines framing well the price action, and the price crossing constantly the blue line with the green “C” that is the Central Weekly Level.

That is one of the conditions, last Wednesday I mentioned another related to volatility, the next chart shows the direct correlation of the choppy price action with specific volatility ranges, following the chart you will see the weekly levels, the monthly levels (currently more important than the weekly ones based on the analysis presented), and then the combined levels.

Invalidations and volatility ranges:

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Our Support and Resistance levels continue to frame the price action, with the SPX oscillating between the anticipated Central Weekly Level (CWL) of $6,882 and the extended bearish target of 6,745. We see the same pattern in IWM which topped slightly above its CWL of $261.0 before selling off in a zigzag pattern during the week to the $249.0 overextended bearish level.

This is a complex market environment, where rapid oversold conditions are met with aggressive buying, yet rallies fade quickly, such as the Monday afternoon top following a morning selloff, or the Wednesday top during an indecisive afternoon. Conversely, selloffs are frequently met with recovery attempts, as seen on Tuesday morning and Friday afternoon.

The levels continue to work symmetrically and with high precision, but the constant breach of these central levels makes the current market environment peculiar. The 2H chart for the SPX presents the main levels from the last three weeks; all were modeled in advance, and you can see how the price has moved inside the ranges and how choppy the moves have been.

After ten years in the market, and two years of this Substack, the good news is that these types of markets historically do not last long. A resolution is near, and the targets will continue being met with a more directional price action.

The Power of Individual Names

Since November the indices had been directionless until the last two weeks, the loss of the central monthly level (CML) for the major indices and megacaps and the VIX above 20 is a condition that brings the volatility mentioned.

From the setups studied last week, AAPL reached its bearish target of $254, PLTR and NFLX printed bullish momentum following their setups, TSLA made it to its bearish target without breaching central levels, and V reached its bullish target of $326 with precision before reversing.

All the securities will continue being studied with their targets, AMD is back to our watchlist so we continue focused on megacaps and high volume assets ( complete list below).

Geopolitical Risk Reprices Energy

Escalating conflict in the Middle East became the dominant macro variable of the week. The global oil supply has been impacted, and sent crude futures sharply higher. Average U.S. gasoline prices rose 27 cents to $3.25 per gallon in the days following the military actions. The energy shock introduced a compounding headwind for corporate margins, consumer spending power, and the Federal Reserve’s inflation management. Markets are now repricing the geopolitical risk premium across energy-sensitive sectors, and that recalibration is not yet complete.

Labor Market Deterioration Adds Pressure

A significantly weaker-than-expected employment report amplified selling pressure on Friday. The U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, falling sharply short of the 58,000 additions consensus had projected. The unemployment rate moved up to 4.4%. Prior-period data was also revised lower: January job growth was marked down to 126,000, and December was revised to show an outright loss of 17,000 positions. The negative revision trend is notable. It signals that the labor market softening has been underway longer than initial readings suggested.

Supplementary data offered little offset. January retail sales declined 0.2%, with core sales flat. Taken together, the week’s economic prints present a picture of a slowing consumer, a deteriorating labor backdrop, and rising input costs from energy, a combination that complicates any near-term optimism about earnings stability.

Moves Don’t Occur in a Straight Line

Last week, I highlighted the Monthly Gravestone Doji for February, which served as a clear warning of a bearish move for the Dow Jones. Today, after a 3% selloff in a single week, it is worth noting how oversold the “godfather of the indices” has become.

Friday’s candle shows buyers stepping in after the lows of the day. Furthermore, price action is currently below the Lower Daily Bollinger Band, a rare condition that typically triggers a bounce. How sustainable will this move be? Our Support and Resistance levels will provide the answer, but for now, this extreme condition combined with an oversold oscillator is well worth watching.

Let’s deep dive on the levels for next week, this is our core watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

By consistently analyzing the same “Megacaps” and key Indices, you gain a deep familiarity with their price action. This allows you to spot capital rotation early and refine your entry timing with precision while others are still scanning for ideas. If you trade some of those securities, this publication is for you.

Paid subscribers can also suggest their own securities every weekend, and their weekly levels are modeled for the week ahead. For example, IGV was a common suggestion last week, paid subscribers knew that the conditions were bullish above $80.3, con bullish targets at $84.3 and $87.1; the price closed the week at $87.9.

Let’s begin, unlock all the levels upgrading your subscription:

WEEKLY LEVELS

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Technology and financial stocks bore the brunt of the selling today. The information technology sector dropped 1.6%, dragged lower by persistent weakness in software and a 4.2% decline in Nvidia. The chipmaker, which had already slid over 5.5% on Thursday despite strong earnings. The financials sector fell 2.0%, led by a 7.4% drop in Goldman Sachs, as the hotter inflation reading undercut the bull case for capital markets activity. Concerns over AI automation added to the pressure after Block announced a 40% workforce reduction, compounding weakness in asset managers already rattled by the collapse of U.K. mortgage firm Market Financial Solutions.

Despite the selling in tech and financials, the market showed notable rotation into defensive and energy sectors again. Health care, consumer staples, and utilities posted gains of 1.8%, 1.3%, and 1.2% respectively. The energy sector surged 1.6% as crude oil futures climbed 2.8% to $67.06 per barrel, though rising fuel costs punished airline stocks like United Airlines and Delta Air Lines. In the bond market, Treasuries rallied and sent yields to their lowest levels of the year. The 10-year note yield settled down 13 basis points for the week at 3.96%.

Support and Resistance Levels

Over the past few weeks, I’ve highlighted the importance of the Central Monthly Level (CML). For long-term investors, the CML acts as a primary trigger: a recovery of this level signals a “buy,” while losing it suggests a “sell” or defensive posture.

For high-frequency traders, the CML serves as a volatility filter. Price action below this level typically invites higher volatility, as we saw with the NDX and QQQ in February after they lost 25,557 and 621, respectively, on February 3rd.

Today’s edition features the updated levels for MARCH. As usual, I’ve highlighted securities trading below their CML. Spoiler alert: Only nine names closed today above their March CML, and only one of them is a tech stock.

This publication consistently analyzes the following securities to provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions. Maintaining a consistent watchlist is key to improving performance and timing:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

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Weekly Levels

Of course, they’re all here. This week, these levels successfully set the bullish targets for $QQQ (615.0) and $SMH (422.1), including the SMH extended target of $429.2. We also hit the extended target for GLD at $484.0 and the $694.4 level for the SPY.

Since our risk management and validation points are built directly on these levels, let’s deep-dive into the Weekly and Monthly Levels. Following that, I’ve included a Combined Price Matrix to help you assess targets and manage risk for both bullish and bearish setups. These levels are modeled on historical data and have proven their accuracy for this community since March 2024 when this Substack was launched.

Why are these levels more important now than at any time since February 2025?

Historically, the Dow Jones has signaled major reversals under two specific conditions:

1. The monthly RSI exceeds 70 (as seen in 2018, 2022, and 2025).

2. A monthly reversal candle is formed (as seen in 2020).

Currently, both signals are flashing: the RSI has hit 71, and a gravestone doji has formed. This indicates that the price has erased its monthly gains, signaling a significant loss of bullish momentum.

Signals need confirmation, the modeled support and resistance levels are here to help navigating March:

WEEKLY LEVELS

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Market momentum shifted dramatically on Friday following a landmark legal decision that outweighed concerning economic data. Early reports revealed that fourth-quarter economic growth slowed to 1.4%, significantly missing the 3.0% consensus forecast. Inflation metrics also ran hot, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rising 2.9% year over year. Even so, stocks rallied after the Supreme Court ruled 6 to 3 that the executive branch overstepped its authority by imposing broad emergency tariffs. The President subsequently announced a new 10% global tariff plan lasting 150 days, but the removal of prior legal uncertainties provided a significant boost to investor sentiment.

Technology and consumer companies were the primary beneficiaries of the court ruling. The communication services sector jumped 2.7%, driven by a 4.01% rise in Alphabet and a 1.69% gain for Meta Platforms. Tariff-sensitive Amazon climbed 2.56%, while Nvidia and Apple added to the broad tech sector strength. On the flip side, the private credit sector faced notable selling pressure. Shares of Blue Owl Capital and Blackstone fell 4.8% and 3.57% respectively, driven by concerns over retail fund liquidity. The energy sector also lagged, falling 0.7% as crude oil futures settled at $66.49 per barrel.

Over the weekend, I anticipated that several securities were due for a reversal to recover their Central Weekly Levels (CWL). This thesis played out across our core watchlist:

• Palantir (PLTR): Recovered its $134.5 CWL to close the week +2.9%.

• Amazon (AMZN): Reclaimed the $203 level, triggering a bullish reversal setup and closing up +5.27%.

• Semiconductor ETF (SMH): Recovered $408.3, finishing the week +1.8%.

• Oversold Leaders: Nvidia (NVDA) and Netflix (NFLX) both moved above their key price levels, closing up +3.8% and +2.34% respectively.

The rotation we’ve been tracking into “Real Economy” giants like JP Morgan (JPM), Bershire (BRK.B), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Walmart (WMT), and Eli Lilly (LLY) appears overextended and in healthy pullback process.

Conversely, many tech giants are currently oversold. If these giants wake up, we could see a new leg up for the bull market, heading toward our mid-term targets for the SPX and NDX.

→ Unlock the Publication with the Targets for SPX and NDX in 2026 Click Here. ←

MAGS ETF: A Critical Junction

The weekly chart for the MAGS ETF (Magnificent Seven) suggests the worst of the bearish move may be behind us. The lower Bollinger Band was breached and oscillators reached oversold territory, conditions that mirrored the April 2025 bottom.

As noted above, several securities have recently breached their Central Weekly Level (CWL) reversing from their (bearish) setups. This essential weekly price line is modeled every Friday for 44 core securities. Paid subscribers also have the exclusive benefit of suggesting five additional tickers from their personal watchlists each weekend.

For the coming week, the MAGS ETF must hold above $61.8 to maintain its current bullish reversal setup. A successful hold targets $63.5 as an immediate move, with potential for $64.4 if momentum builds. Conversely, if $61.8 is lost, the next destination is $60.9, representing a potential -2.7% selloff.

Market risk remains elevated, but these well-modeled levels provide you with the objective tools necessary to manage risk and set accurate targets. Unlock the weekly and monthly levels for META, NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, QQQ, SPY, IWM, SMH, and more!

This publication consistently analyzes the following securities to provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Maintaining a consistent watchlist is key to improving performance navigating choppy markets like this one; it allows you to refine the timing of your entries and effectively rotate capital as new opportunities emerge.

If you trade or invest with levels, using them to set targets and to manage risk, you can unlock the ones for the week ahead upgrading your subscription.

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Today’s Agenda: Actionable Levels

Using well-modeled levels is the best tool to manage risk and set objective targets. Today we cover:

1. Weekly Levels: Navigating the week ahead for 44 core securities.

2. Three high probability Setups: Securities with technicals and levels aiming at one direction with conviction.

3. Monthly Levels: Assessing long-term conditions and “Big Picture” trends.

4. Combined Analysis: Identifying confluence between weekly and monthly data.

Let’s begin.

WEEKLY LEVELS

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My notes last week regarding the VIX and SPX were clear for paid subscribers:

“The current price action doesn’t typically reflect a final ‘top’ in volatility. The current level of 17.7 for the VIX is not the cleanest condition for a sustained bull run; a new spike in volatility remains a viable risk.” Additionally, I cited: “For the SPX, a breach of the CWL of 6,901.8 (-0.4%) points to 6,810.6 (-1.8%).”

The actual low of the week was $6,794 🎯, just 16 points away from my target. (Remember this is not gut feeling, this is based on technical analysis and modeled S/R levels every Friday for the week ahead - Like the ones updated for next week)

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Technology failed to provide the necessary fuel for the market. Given its heavy weighting, the rotation observed in other sectors could not mitigate the market cracks highlighted in the Weekly Compass since January 18 🎯.

Our high-probability setups continued to pay off: MSFT, IWM and AVGO reached their bullish targets and reversed, PLTR accelerated its bearish move after breaching its CWL, and GOOG moved downward as expected. COST moved north with choppy price action but reached its bullish target of $1,024 today (the top was just 1.2 dollars shy from the target). From 8 high probability setups only BRK.B moved against its bullish setup, and META opened on Monday below its Central Weekly Level, so there was no material loss.

With six out of eight setups showing directional validation, not to mention others in my blueprint, like NVDA and TSLA, reaching their bullish targets before reversing, I want to highlight the power of individual names in choppy markets and the neutrality of my setups involving megacaps, long or shorts; and different sectors, that outperform the broader market.

This approach is valid for all types of investors. The Weekly Compass provides clear triggers, targets, and invalidation levels, alongside technical studies for moves averaging 4% while indices remain stagnant or volatile. It is an active, profitable approach.

All of this using the Support and Resistance Levels updated today for next week.

I understand that some investors have a longer-term perspective while others are concerned about a major market top. Both views are absolutely valid. For that reason, remember that I provide weekly levels every Friday, as well as monthly levels. The Central Monthly Level serves as a key tool for long-term decision-making, raising red flags for investors concerned about a potential major top if that level is lost.

Last week we studied the performance for the SPX during the last six years using the Central Monthly Level (CML), this is the same analysis for QQQ.

Notice how significant the loss of the CML has been; the red areas highlight the drawdowns that occurred after the CML was breached.

As mentioned last week for the SPX, losing the CML is not a guarantee of a crash or bear market, but is relevant enough to be cautious, but it’s worth noting, SPX, NDX, DJI, Small Caps (IWM), and all the Magnificent Seven lost their Central Monthly Level, unlock the key price levels to watch even for long term investors. They’re posted below for premium subscribers, upgrade now your plan!

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Stop Scanning. Start Anticipating. The secret to consistent performance isn’t finding a “new” stock every day, it’s mastering the ones that matter. We permanently track the market’s Megacaps and key securities with HIGH VOLUME to give you a broad market perspective. This constant focus allows you to catch the capital rotation before the crowd does and pinpoint the perfect time to enter.

We Cover every week (and month):

• Indices: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• Majors: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX, XOM

• ETFs & Commodities: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Crypto: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Ensure you have the right tools to navigate the current market. Unlock the Monthly and Weekly Levels for all of them now.

Let’s begin with the weekly levels, and then the monthly ones, with some high probability setups in advance of the weekend publication.

WEEKLY LEVELS

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This publication relies on precise targets for both bullish and bearish moves, and this week perfectly illustrated why that discipline is essential. We have used these levels to navigate reversals, this week highlighted their relevance in assessing potential bounces as well.

The current stage of the bull market is its most complex. Market conditions lack broad bullish strength, and the VIX was technically due for a bounce as we anticipated. Furthermore, Bitcoin acted as a “thermometer” for risk aversion. What we witnessed this week based on bearish crossovers studied on the weekly charts, lead to an intra-week pullback, as considered in the Weekly Compass.

Professional Navigation: Setting the Targets

Setting targets is about managing reasonable expectations and being prepared for the moment a trend might exhaust itself. Here is how our levels performed this week:

• SPY: We anticipated a breach of the Central Weekly Level with a primary target of 685.2 and a likely extension to 678.54, the actual bottom print was at 675.7 before reversing.

• JPM: Our extension target of 314 was reached with high conviction, allowing traders to lock in profits before a mid-week pullback and subsequent recovery.

• IBIT (Bitcoin ETF): We anticipated an -8.5% decline with an extended target of 43.5. This was reached quickly at the start of the week and extended further.

• BRK.B: Our bullish expectation was met and exceeded. Instead of just the 2.3% target extension at $492.3, the stock rallied 5.72%.

• SMH: We expected a decline with an extended target of 382.5 (-5.3%). The ETF found support near 374.08 before bouncing.

• WMT: Anticipated a 2.2% rally to 121.8. This target was exceeded, allowing traders who trail stops to capture a total rally of 4.13%.

• AAPL: Our bullish setup from a week ago anticipated a move to 276.5 (+3.6%). Apple crossed this level with strength, hitting an initial extended target of 269.4 (+7.2%) earlier in the week.

• QQQ: The bearish extended target was set at 607.3 (a -2.4% decline). The price extended to 596.24 and bounced precisely from that level.

• IWM: The bearish target of 252 (-2.7%) was reached with extreme precision before bouncing, this one was the most choppy one of all the ones anticipated.

Risk Management: The Power of Invalidation

Accuracy is only half the battle; managing risk is what keeps you in the game. Out of the 10 high-probability setups posted last week, 9 moved in the expected direction.

The only setup that was invalidated was META. However, because we used a calculated Central Weekly Level as a reference, the invalidation at the 1.2% mark protected subscribers from a much deeper -7.68% decline.

Looking Ahead

Next month marks the second anniversary of SmartReversals. For two years, these levels have helped investors across the globe set reasonable targets and manage risk through technical discipline.

We use the Central Weekly Level (CWL) to manage momentum, we have seen the power of individual names in choppy markets, since November we have outperformed the market with bullish and bearish setups every week, today I will present in three charts how the Central Monthly Level (CML) works for longer term positions, this helps to answer questions like: What is the direction of the next big move (+/-10%)?, What is the proximity of the next correction?, or the what is the risk of not reaching our bullish target that paid subscribers know is 7,#80?.

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See the daily chart for SPX and the CWL posted during the last two years for every week, this monthly line is a great tool to assess bullish or bearish conditions, our role as traders is to make decisions studying price action, and the chart highlights how significant has been to lose the CML using the red areas:

Of course, there are choppy months like December 2024 when the CML was breached several times, that price action is something to consider as a condition as we use the VIX, divergences, or Bitcoin (you don’t need to trade it, just use it as a risk-on/off thermometer).

The selloff in March and April had a condition: The Price was below the CML.

We use the CWL to time momentum, the CML works better for medium or long term positions, the chart speaks by itself.

CML and Bear Markets

We just saw the case study for 2025, see what happened before the bear markets of 2022 and 2020:

Being positioned below the CML is a condition that increases the chances of a major breakdown. Bear in mind that bear markets have ferocious bear market rallies, if you remember March, or June-July 2022, the FOMO that they created was significant, but even the infamous Jackson Hole meeting on September 2022 that triggered the last major selloff of 2022 happened below the CML.

Another major event covered in the chart is the -10% correction of 2023, see how impressive is the constant condition of being below the CML.

This publication updates every month the CML for each of the following securities, and that CML is always every Friday combined with the weekly levels:

Our Core Watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Unlock the S/R levels for next week, and the essential monthly levels for February, it’s important to highlight that tech is below its CML.

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Exclusively for premium subscribers, my latest ebook details how to master support and resistance levels (find it below), also four high-probability setups for next week.

2020 Crash - Another Clean Example of Losing the CML:

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Macroeconomic developments added another layer to market dynamics. President Trump’s nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair captured headlines, though the move did not immediately shift monetary policy expectations. The announcement arrives as markets navigate the heart of earnings season and ongoing valuation debates. Bitcoin extended its decline during the week, retreating -5% so far to two-month lows near $83,000 as leveraged positions unwound amid the broader risk-off tone.

Our High-Probability Setups performed exceptionally well this week. The bullish expectation for Meta (META), posted one week ago, was proven correct. The stock not only reached the first target of $683.5 (+3.8%) but surged past the extended target of $708.2 (+7.5%). Meta rallied +8.7% for the week, validating the thesis that strong fundamentals and extreme oversold conditions would spark a significant reversal. Of course, we will study the gap.

Microsoft (MSFT) also exceeded its bullish target of 478 (+2.7%) comfortably before earnings. As noted, surpassing a target before a binary event like earnings is a signal to lock profits or adjust stop losses. Amazon (AMZN) followed suit, validating our target of 244 for a 2.1% gain.

These results are significant because the broader market was flat during the week. The S&P 500 closed up just 0.34% and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.21%. Generating alpha with Meta (+7.6%), MSFT (+2.7%), and AMZN (+2.1%) in a choppy environment proves the power of stock selection paired with precise technical analysis and Support and Resistance Levels.

We also capitalized on bearish setups, I anticipated since December 2025 that the times ahead will demand to monetize in both ways, since 2026 is likely to bring turbulence in price action:

• Eli Lilly (LLY): Reached our downside target of $1,021.5 (-4%) on Wednesday. And as anticipated in the Midweek Update (Wednesday after market closed), the stock was likely to bounce, and the price action confirmed my technical interpretation on Thursday and Friday.

• Walmart (WMT): Hit our $116 target (-1.4%) on Tuesday. We are now seeing a rotation from Technology into Retail/Staples, changing Walmart’s momentum.

• IWM (Russell 2000): Successfully reached the bearish target of 260 (-1.8%) on Wednesday, confirming the downtrend.

Regarding risk management, Palantir (PLTR) was a prime example of the protection our levels provide. While the stock plummeted 13.5%, our bullish invalidation level at $167.6 limited the loss to just 1.2% from the entry point. Conversely, J.P. Morgan (JPM) invalidated its bearish setup by breaching the Central Weekly Level of $301.7, signaling an immediate exit after a 1.4% move against shorts.

The Week Ahead

We are entering a historically weak seasonal period within the presidential cycle. Staying nimble is essential. The analysis below includes the Central Weekly and Monthly Levels for the following securities. These levels will help you identify whether stocks are in bullish or bearish momentum for the month ahead. I changed the format to highlight better bullish and bearish conditions.

We Cover:

• Indices: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• Majors: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX

• ETFs & Commodities: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Crypto: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR

• Leveraged: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Maintaining a consistent watchlist is key to improving performance; it allows you to refine the timing of your entries and effectively rotate capital as new opportunities emerge.

Ensure you have the right tools to navigate the current market. Subscribe now

Subscribe now

Below, premium subscribers will find the Weekly Levels for the week ahead, the Monthly Levels for February, and my two eBooks on Essential and Advanced Technical Analysis.

WEEKLY LEVELS

I have improved the format, so you can find easier the bullish and the bearish conditions:

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