U.S. equities ended a volatile week on Friday, April 24, with a stark divergence across major indices. Technology shares powered the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 to fresh record closing highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged behind to finish in negative territory. The Nasdaq emerged as the clear weekly winner, gaining 2.4% over the five days. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% for the week, to close at a record 7,165.08. However, the blue-chip Dow ended its three-week winning streak, falling 0.4% for the week to settle at 49,230.71.

Corporate earnings provided crucial direction for investors amid the macroeconomic volatility. Semiconductor companies drove much of the late week momentum, spearheaded by a historic 23.6% surge in Intel shares following strong first-quarter earnings and an optimistic financial outlook. This momentum sparked a broader rally across chipmakers, lifting peers such as AMD 14% and Qualcomm 11% in a single session. Tesla, the first Mag-7 reporting saw a weekly decline of -6%.

Software has been the second dominant theme this week (after Semiconductors). Interestingly, while individual names saw major sell-offs, the IGV (Software ETF) managed to close flat for the period.

The weekly chart below highlights bullish MACD crossovers over the last eight years, covering the 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2025 bear markets, alongside reversals in 2019, 2023, and 2024. Historically, 8 out of 10 of these signals were sustained, leading to continued bull trends. In only two instances was the signal invalidated, resulting in lower lows.

The data shows that bullish reversals at oversold levels (below zero) typically generate follow-through, which is the current case. For this month, the outlook remains bullish as long as the price stays above the 81.7 monthly level; a break below that mark would serve as an invalidation reference for the bullish thesis.

In addition to the technical analysis, a special fundamental study of Software was posted on Wednesday, providing a close-up on eight giants including PLTR, ORCL, CRWD, NOW, ADBE, PANW, and SAP. For investors and traders, the analyzed scenarios are a good read; some of these securities are showing interesting long-term opportunities. Get Access here:

• Software: Backbone of the Digital Economy

For new subscribers, three weeks ago another fundamental special was posted, that day for NVDA, TSLA, META, AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, and AVGO:

• Investing in the A.I. Era: The Magnificent Eight

Both specials analyze the context for each company and medium term scenarios related to their CAPEX recovery. Subscribe to the paid plan, and unlock the content.

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Find below the Support and Resistance levels for next week, including the crucial Central Weekly Level that validates momentum (bullish above / bearish below), and the Central Monthly Level that is crucial for both investors and traders, since it is breached few times per year and paid subscribers saw in March the implications of not recovering it quickly.

Maintaining a consistent watchlist is key to improving performance; it allows you to refine the timing of your entries and effectively rotate capital as new opportunities emerge. The levels posted every Friday begin with the SPX, and include the following as well:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

If you trade some of them, this publication is for you. Subscribe to the paid plan and unlock all the content at smartreversals.com, including educational publications about using support and resistance levels:

• Support and Resistance Levels - How to Take Action

• Combining Weekly and Monthly Support and Resistance Levels

• Confluence - Find High Probability Setups Combining Indicators

• Mastering Options

• Anatomy of a Winning Trade

Let’s begin.

WEEKLY LEVELS

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The targets were based on these modeled support and resistance levels, and I was doubtful of some of them reaching their target considering the previous two rally weeks, but once again, these levels frame price action and in the same way that they worked in bearish weeks during march, they worked well during this bullish move.

Top Performing Setups

• Bitcoin / IBIT: This was my high-conviction play regardless of broader market action. IBIT hit the extended target of $43.7 and closed the week at $43.9, delivering a robust +5.7% move. If you trade Bitcoin the move is even better for a +9% this week so far. Bitcoin has a very high probability setup.

• NVDA: The bullish move based on the volume shelf acting as launchpad sent the price to the extended target of $200.4. The stock exceeded expectations, closing the week at $201.6 for a +6.9% gain.

• META: I have highlighted its fundamentals and oversold technicals. From the extended target of $684.8 (+8.7%), the stock surged to close the week at $688.5 with a +9.4% move.

• ETHA: The extended target was $18.1 (+6.4%). The ETF closed the week at $18.37.

• QQQ: The extended target was $663.3. The index reached $648.0, marking a strong +6.14% weekly gain that exceeded expectations.

• AAPL: The target of $266.5 (+2.3%) was easily cleared, with the price closing the week at $270.0 (+3.67%) actually nearing the extended target of 272.6 today during the day.

Target Hits and Technical Discipline

• NFLX: The stock reached and exceeded our extended target of $106.8 (+3.7%) prior to its earnings report.

  Strategic Note on Earnings: As seen with recent price action, the market is punishing stocks that do not provide perfect guidance. Trading through earnings is a lottery; setups can flip instantly regardless of technicals if the Street finds something unappealing. Same as 3 months ago, if a bullish target is reached, locking gains is prudent.

• JPM: Despite initial weakness, the price stayed above our invalidation level (CWL) of $304.6. It trended bullishly toward the $316.5 target, reaching a high of $314.9. Given the proximity, we consider this move constructive.

• Bounces: The expectations for relief bounces in PLTR, TSLA, and V all materialized.

Invalidation (1 out of 12)

• LLY: This was our only outlier. It lost the $934.0 invalidation level, ending the week down -1.3%. While the structure remains somewhat constructive, it must recover key levels to reclaim the bullish thesis.

That said, the Support and Resistance Levels proved their worth allowing us to anticipate potential targets and managing risk in the case of LLY thanks to the Central Weekly Level (CWL) that was breached.

Looking Ahead

The levels for the coming week are posted below, identifying the “Bullish Above” and “Bearish Below” zones for both the weekly and monthly timeframes. We will analyze the charts in full tomorrow to identify which securities have the highest probability of continuing their bullish momentum.

Securities Analyzed Constantly Every Week:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

The SPX is the core of this publication, and the rest of the watchlist combines sectors and assets, always with one principle: High Daily Volume that allows you to fill orders rapidly and use the options market if preferred.

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Intriguing Chart : XOM

Hammer candle with high daily volume breaching the lower Bollinger band, oversold oscillator, a gap above today’s candle, and a gigantic gap when considering the volume at price (green horizontal bars). This is usually a good combination for a bounce.

Dead cat or a sustainable one? The answer is in the S/R levels below.

Let’s begin.

WEEKLY LEVELS

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When the market began its bounce on March 31, essential levels were reclaimed. First, the Central Daily Level (our “Bullish Above / Bearish Below” indicator) sat at 6,362. The price opened above this level, providing an immediate bullish signal to subscribers who use our levels for validation. Subsequently, our Central Weekly Level (CWL) of $6,458 “sealed the deal,” confirming the weekly reversal and validating the bullish setups for the SPY, DIA, IWM, and QQQ anticipated the prior week.

Last week, as market conditions improved, I posted a set of bullish setups with the following results:

• AMD: Exceeded its extended target of $234.3 (+7.7%), peaking at a +12.6% weekly gain.

• META: Highlighted for bullish continuation with an extended target of $629.2 (+9.5%); it closed the week at $629.86.

• AVGO: Surpassed its modest +5.7% extended target to reach a massive +18% gain.

• MSFT: Reached its extended target of $385 (a +3.3% move) before retracing.

• COST: The extended target as 1,036 for a +2.1% move, the price reversed exactly after touching that point on Thursday.

• SPY: With an extended target of $677.1, for a +3.2% move, the high of the week was $682, only five points above the target, allowing an easy profit taking or adjustments of stops.

• QQQ: $608.2 was the extended expectation with a +4.0% move, the actual weekly move was 4.4%

How are these high-probability targets set? They are derived from professional technical analysis and these modeled Support and Resistance levels, which are updated every Friday. Each setup includes a Central Weekly Level to manage stops and invalidate the thesis, along with primary targets, extended targets, and “inversion” levels if the setup flips from bullish to bearish.

Not all setups are bullish. For example, XOM was identified with a bearish target of $154.7 (a -3.7% move) as long as the price remained below $165.5. The actual weekly move was a significant -5.9%.

Unlock the Support and Resistance Levels for next week including these securities:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

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Having a constant set of securities help you managing rotations and anticipating moves in your favorite individual names.

Today I’m adding some historical charts that will provide references to manage the gap printed on Wednesday for the SPX and our securities in general, including the bearish gap for XOM and VXX.

Unlock essential information for your trading next week.

SPX: A Strategic Multi-Year Perspective on Key Support

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Modeled Support and Resistance Levels Framed Price Action

The pathway to a green close was not smooth. On Monday, the SPX extended its oversold conditions, moving toward the bearish weekly target of $6,216. Once the overextension concluded, also breaching the lower daily Bollinger Band, the price began the “imminent bounce” anticipated this weekend in the Weekly Compass, where I mentioned the following:

For the week ahead, there is a high likelihood of a relief rally. We will remain focused on the major indices, as the SPY, QQQ, IWM, and DIA are showing potential for a trend reversal. If they recover their Central Weekly Levels, we can begin considering individual setups.

During this turbulent environment, I am posting daily levels so the community can identify early signals of a bullish reversal. This allows us to act without waiting for a 2% move to recover the central weekly level, especially considering the distance from Monday’s close to our $6,458 key level.

That said, paid subscribers knew that reclaiming $6,362 on Tuesday would validate a bullish reversal. The subsequent layers of levels provided further validation and references for trailing stops as the price moved toward $6,458, our “bullish above / bearish below” level for the week. As observed this week, daily levels function well as intermediate targets.

Last night, I anticipated that the reversal candle set the stage for a potential gap fill, not only due to the price action’s structure but also because of the intraday reversal that placed today’s Central Daily Level at $6,579. Since this was above Wednesday’s close, that condition applied pressure to the price.

Trying to anticipate Trump’s specific comments would have been imprudent. While the market expected rhetoric favoring a rally (perhaps a retreat from Iran) that was not the case. Consequently, the market sold off 1.5% overnight, opening below yesterday’s gap. However, dip buyers jumped in above the CWL and at the stretched daily level of $6,494 shared yesterday with subscribers. The gap has now been filled for good, clearing the pathway for bulls who may have been concerned about that magnet.

There is one critical element to consider: the Central Monthly Level. I have shared this since Tuesday so paid subscribers could identify the key level that must be reclaimed to establish better conditions for longs. That level is still acting as resistance, and the current market structure suggests we are not yet out of the woods.

The current price structure can be compared not only with 2025 but with 2022 and many more bear markets, including 2018, 2008, and others. Two examples for the SPX:

The current structure is perfectly comparable with those years considering the sharp selloff and key monthly levels breached in March, the CML zone is definitive to consider bullish continuation or not in April. From our watchlist, many securities made it above that essential level, let’s study the combined Weekly and Monthly levels with their relative distance to the current prices.

This publication consistently analyzes the following securities to provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions. Maintaining a consistent watchlist is key to improving performance; it allows you to refine the timing of your entries and rotate capital as new opportunities emerge.

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Make sure you read my latest Market Intelligence publication, where you can see one single pattern that matches with the bear market bottoms during the last 40 years, including the crashes in 1987 and 2020. If we are in a bear market this measures the potential move remaining. I provide my point of view with also a clear and objective analysis. This is a must read for investors and traders.

• 40 Years of Bear Market Bottoms in one Pattern

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Unlock all the content and the essential levels for next week, they frame price action in every market environment.

Let’s begin with the levels.

WEEKLY LEVELS

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Geopolitical turmoil drove the risk-off move. Tensions escalated sharply on Friday following reported strikes on Iranian steel and power infrastructure and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil futures reversed early week losses to trade back above $100. Gold, historically the default safe haven is stable and recovered early week losses, the bearish reversal shows the worst slump since 2008. Bitcoin held between $65K and $72K, touching again our annual support level.

Last Wednesday we studied in a special edition about risk management, how difficult can the market be when the VIX is above 20, today the volatility index closed at 31, and the indices breached key support levels.

The publication mentioned presented examples of trailing stops for long positions, today I want to bring an example for short positions using the levels that I posted in the premium chat this morning. The levels were posted for all the magnificent seven, other major stocks, and of course, the SPX and key ETFs like QQQ.

Managing Levels for Short Positions:

The concept of “central level” refers for the price zone where a security is bullish above it, and bearish below it. The Central Monthly Level (CML) has proven to be a essential risk on/risk off threshold as we studied in previous publications. No good things happen below the CML. Needless to say, most of our equities studied lost their CML, just XOM and VXX are above it. There are monthly support and resistance levels that are modeled for each month.

Then we have the weekly levels and the Central Weekly Level (CWL), they work for swings, and when the VIX is high, the rapid moves among them are constant, as we have seen during eight weeks already.

Given the wide space among monthly and weekly levels, there are daily levels with intermediate layers that facilitate navigation or provide early reversal warnings.

Several securities were posted in the premium chat, QQQ was one of them and provides a real life example of trailing stops for shorts:

The price closed on Thursday at 573.8 (1), the CWL was 588.8 (next week’s updated below), in case of a reversal, waiting until 588 to turn bullish was a long shot, so it was worth knowing the CDL (2), and for today it was 577.3, that was much closer.

Bulls can stay safe out of any long below 577.3, so waiting is an approach. Bears can short the security given the high volatility index. in that case, shorting QQQ setting a stop above 577.3 was valid.

The price didn’t try to fill the gap at the opening, it continued the selloff, breaking below the weekly support of 571 (3), now flipped to resistance along with the monthly level of 573.6. When a level is lost and there is a short position, the stop can be moved above the new level lost (remember, not exactly at the same level, algos can touch them with precision as we have seen several times before.

The daily support of 569 was breached soon after the opening (4), then, at 1:15 PM approx., the daily support of 566 was breached (5), guess what, any stop loss could have been placed slightly above it. Last Wednesday we studied distances above or below a level.

The price closed close to the lows of the day, after approaching the extended bearish target of 561.5 analyzed in the Weekly Compass last week.

This publication constantly studies the following securities, if you trade some of them, this is for you.

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Megacaps: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

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Now let’s study the modeled Support and Resistance levels for next week, combined with the monthly ones, tomorrow the Weekly Compass comes with the momentum map, and all the charts with technical indicators using these layers to assess setups.

Unlock the updated levels, and the educational content posted last week regarding Trailing Stop Losses.

WEEKLY LEVELS

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Lately, the sell-offs have accelerated earlier in the week. While the S&P 500 recovered its Central Weekly Level of $6,700 on Monday, the price action vanished on Tuesday, and the decline intensified by Wednesday when that level flipped to resistance. Our downside levels were met: $6,555 acted as first line on defense on Thursday, and then $6,479 is where the price bounced on Friday. These modeled support and resistance levels continue framing the price action for the week ahead.

These price levels were published on Friday ahead of the weekly activity, you can see how accurate they are to frame price action, the price layers for next week are below.

QQQ opened above the CWL of $599, which was our “line in the sand” for bulls (CWL). Tuesday’s indecisive action signaled weakness, leading to an accelerated sell-off on Wednesday. While there was a temporary reversal attempt on Thursday, it failed to close in positive territory, and the QQQ bounced from its bearish extension target of $577.5 for the week that just ended, the levels for next week are below.

IWM: Already down -7.18% for the month. The bearish target of $241 was reached. After failing to consolidate the CWL on Monday and Tuesday, and on Wednesday $249.1 acted as firm resistance following the Federal Reserve’s announcement.

Geopolitical Context: As mentioned in recent Market Intelligence editions (links below), geopolitical uncertainty adds a layer of complexity that economic data cannot account for. Unlike an earnings or an economic report, there is no scheduled time for attacks on energy facilities. With both the U.S. and Iran showing no willingness for a ceasefire, the market remains sensitive to potential oil spikes and escalating fear.

Oil stabilized this week (-1.37%) at historical overbought conditions relative to weekly technical indicators while volatility remains above 25. If a resolution is not reached quickly, the resulting impact on inflation and the Fed’s pathway could lead to further structural decline in the stock market.

Make sure you read the latest Market Intelligence publications about Oil, they are essential for long term investors and traders:

• Oil as the New VIX: Blueprint for Extreme Moves

• FED Trapped: Oil, Inflation, Policy Dead End

Market Breadth & Structure: That said, the market structure is suffering extreme damage. The 200-day moving average has been breached for the SPX, DJI, and NDX. Participation is at critical lows: only 12% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 20-day moving average, 19% for the Nasdaq, and 15% for Small Caps. While these levels have marked local bottoms in the past, next week’s updated Central Weekly Levels will be essential to monitor for any potential rally or a continuous selloff.

Unlock the Support and Resistance levels for next week, this publication models the levels for these securities:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

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Premium subscribers can suggest the stocks of their interest during the weekend, so an additional set of levels is posted on Sundays in the paid Subscribers Chat.

Let’s study the levels for next week to navigate where we stand.

WEEKLY LEVELS

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Escalating conflict in the Middle East remained the main driver of market pressure. An Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz sent energy costs soaring. Oil futures closed at $99. Rising fuel costs combined with unexpected labor market weakness to stoke fears of slowing growth and rising consumer prices. The U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.4%.

The energy shock also took a toll on high-growth technology companies. Major tech firms faced selling pressure as rising electricity costs squeezed margins at power-hungry AI data centers. Amazon was particularly hard hit, shedding roughly $120 billion in market value over the week. In sharp contrast, digital assets showed resilience. Bitcoin is up this week +7% as of now, recovering its Central Monthly level. Ethereum also outperformed the broader market, gaining nearly 9% during the week.

The Support and Resistance levels shared last week continue to accurately frame price action. The S&P 500 found firm support at our modeled $6,667 level to start the week, followed by a tactical spike toward the $6,857 zone. However, persistent choppy conditions triggered a reversal on Wednesday; the index breached its Central Weekly Level (CWL) and ended the week back in the bearish zone, retesting its weekly lows.

The QQQ followed an identical trajectory, oscillating between $611 and $590, both levels modeled last week, executing a sharp “inverse U-turn” mid-week. This pattern was mirrored by the IWM, which tagged our $245 support level on both Monday and Friday, despite a brief intra-week spike above its CWL.

This “inverse U-turn” was observed across the board, impacting TSLA, AAPL, META, AMZN, and even SLV. Of the equities we track, only WMT, COST, and NVDA managed to close above their respective bullish/bearish CWL thresholds, with XOM showing notable strength due to current oil price dynamics.

As anticipated last Saturday, price action has remained exceptionally choppy. Today, I want to illustrate the specific implications of VIX thresholds and price positioning relative to the Central Monthly Level (CML). These factors signaled the current environment, a series of rapid reversals within a single week. I touched on this last Wednesday, and today, I want to make those concepts graphic.

Before continuing, this publication consistently analyzes the following securities to provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions. Maintaining a consistent watchlist is key to improving performance; it allows you to refine the timing of your entries and effectively rotate capital as new opportunities emerge.

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Subscribe now to the paid plan, unlock the support and resistance levels modeled for next week, and all the educational content about trading with them:

• Support and Resistance Levels - How to Take Action

• Combining Weekly and Monthly Support and Resistance Levels

• Confluence Zones - Find High Probability Setups

• Mastering Support and Resistance Levels

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Conditions Accelerating Choppy Price Action

Losing the Central Monthly level for a short period like in November happens a couple of times per year, however, few weeks ago I highlighted that staying below this level for long is a concerning condition from corrections and bear markets. Currently the price for the SPX and most of the securities from our watchlist is below this level.

(These Central Monthly Level is modeled every month and is posted every Friday in this publication for the SPX and the same 40+ securities mentioned above).

The second chart is a zoom in of the Central Weekly Level for the same period, see the price breaching the “C” marked in green in some weeks as part of the normal price action of a bull market. Since February, the dotted area shows how volatile has been the price printing multiple invalidations or reversals during the same week.

The zoomed chart includes the Central Weekly Level AND the support and resistance levels modeled with this level and for each security; see the black horizontal lines framing well the price action, and the price crossing constantly the blue line with the green “C” that is the Central Weekly Level.

That is one of the conditions, last Wednesday I mentioned another related to volatility, the next chart shows the direct correlation of the choppy price action with specific volatility ranges, following the chart you will see the weekly levels, the monthly levels (currently more important than the weekly ones based on the analysis presented), and then the combined levels.

Invalidations and volatility ranges:

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Our Support and Resistance levels continue to frame the price action, with the SPX oscillating between the anticipated Central Weekly Level (CWL) of $6,882 and the extended bearish target of 6,745. We see the same pattern in IWM which topped slightly above its CWL of $261.0 before selling off in a zigzag pattern during the week to the $249.0 overextended bearish level.

This is a complex market environment, where rapid oversold conditions are met with aggressive buying, yet rallies fade quickly, such as the Monday afternoon top following a morning selloff, or the Wednesday top during an indecisive afternoon. Conversely, selloffs are frequently met with recovery attempts, as seen on Tuesday morning and Friday afternoon.

The levels continue to work symmetrically and with high precision, but the constant breach of these central levels makes the current market environment peculiar. The 2H chart for the SPX presents the main levels from the last three weeks; all were modeled in advance, and you can see how the price has moved inside the ranges and how choppy the moves have been.

After ten years in the market, and two years of this Substack, the good news is that these types of markets historically do not last long. A resolution is near, and the targets will continue being met with a more directional price action.

The Power of Individual Names

Since November the indices had been directionless until the last two weeks, the loss of the central monthly level (CML) for the major indices and megacaps and the VIX above 20 is a condition that brings the volatility mentioned.

From the setups studied last week, AAPL reached its bearish target of $254, PLTR and NFLX printed bullish momentum following their setups, TSLA made it to its bearish target without breaching central levels, and V reached its bullish target of $326 with precision before reversing.

All the securities will continue being studied with their targets, AMD is back to our watchlist so we continue focused on megacaps and high volume assets ( complete list below).

Geopolitical Risk Reprices Energy

Escalating conflict in the Middle East became the dominant macro variable of the week. The global oil supply has been impacted, and sent crude futures sharply higher. Average U.S. gasoline prices rose 27 cents to $3.25 per gallon in the days following the military actions. The energy shock introduced a compounding headwind for corporate margins, consumer spending power, and the Federal Reserve’s inflation management. Markets are now repricing the geopolitical risk premium across energy-sensitive sectors, and that recalibration is not yet complete.

Labor Market Deterioration Adds Pressure

A significantly weaker-than-expected employment report amplified selling pressure on Friday. The U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, falling sharply short of the 58,000 additions consensus had projected. The unemployment rate moved up to 4.4%. Prior-period data was also revised lower: January job growth was marked down to 126,000, and December was revised to show an outright loss of 17,000 positions. The negative revision trend is notable. It signals that the labor market softening has been underway longer than initial readings suggested.

Supplementary data offered little offset. January retail sales declined 0.2%, with core sales flat. Taken together, the week’s economic prints present a picture of a slowing consumer, a deteriorating labor backdrop, and rising input costs from energy, a combination that complicates any near-term optimism about earnings stability.

Moves Don’t Occur in a Straight Line

Last week, I highlighted the Monthly Gravestone Doji for February, which served as a clear warning of a bearish move for the Dow Jones. Today, after a 3% selloff in a single week, it is worth noting how oversold the “godfather of the indices” has become.

Friday’s candle shows buyers stepping in after the lows of the day. Furthermore, price action is currently below the Lower Daily Bollinger Band, a rare condition that typically triggers a bounce. How sustainable will this move be? Our Support and Resistance levels will provide the answer, but for now, this extreme condition combined with an oversold oscillator is well worth watching.

Let’s deep dive on the levels for next week, this is our core watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

By consistently analyzing the same “Megacaps” and key Indices, you gain a deep familiarity with their price action. This allows you to spot capital rotation early and refine your entry timing with precision while others are still scanning for ideas. If you trade some of those securities, this publication is for you.

Paid subscribers can also suggest their own securities every weekend, and their weekly levels are modeled for the week ahead. For example, IGV was a common suggestion last week, paid subscribers knew that the conditions were bullish above $80.3, con bullish targets at $84.3 and $87.1; the price closed the week at $87.9.

Let’s begin, unlock all the levels upgrading your subscription:

WEEKLY LEVELS

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Technology and financial stocks bore the brunt of the selling today. The information technology sector dropped 1.6%, dragged lower by persistent weakness in software and a 4.2% decline in Nvidia. The chipmaker, which had already slid over 5.5% on Thursday despite strong earnings. The financials sector fell 2.0%, led by a 7.4% drop in Goldman Sachs, as the hotter inflation reading undercut the bull case for capital markets activity. Concerns over AI automation added to the pressure after Block announced a 40% workforce reduction, compounding weakness in asset managers already rattled by the collapse of U.K. mortgage firm Market Financial Solutions.

Despite the selling in tech and financials, the market showed notable rotation into defensive and energy sectors again. Health care, consumer staples, and utilities posted gains of 1.8%, 1.3%, and 1.2% respectively. The energy sector surged 1.6% as crude oil futures climbed 2.8% to $67.06 per barrel, though rising fuel costs punished airline stocks like United Airlines and Delta Air Lines. In the bond market, Treasuries rallied and sent yields to their lowest levels of the year. The 10-year note yield settled down 13 basis points for the week at 3.96%.

Support and Resistance Levels

Over the past few weeks, I’ve highlighted the importance of the Central Monthly Level (CML). For long-term investors, the CML acts as a primary trigger: a recovery of this level signals a “buy,” while losing it suggests a “sell” or defensive posture.

For high-frequency traders, the CML serves as a volatility filter. Price action below this level typically invites higher volatility, as we saw with the NDX and QQQ in February after they lost 25,557 and 621, respectively, on February 3rd.

Today’s edition features the updated levels for MARCH. As usual, I’ve highlighted securities trading below their CML. Spoiler alert: Only nine names closed today above their March CML, and only one of them is a tech stock.

This publication consistently analyzes the following securities to provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions. Maintaining a consistent watchlist is key to improving performance and timing:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

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Weekly Levels

Of course, they’re all here. This week, these levels successfully set the bullish targets for $QQQ (615.0) and $SMH (422.1), including the SMH extended target of $429.2. We also hit the extended target for GLD at $484.0 and the $694.4 level for the SPY.

Since our risk management and validation points are built directly on these levels, let’s deep-dive into the Weekly and Monthly Levels. Following that, I’ve included a Combined Price Matrix to help you assess targets and manage risk for both bullish and bearish setups. These levels are modeled on historical data and have proven their accuracy for this community since March 2024 when this Substack was launched.

Why are these levels more important now than at any time since February 2025?

Historically, the Dow Jones has signaled major reversals under two specific conditions:

1. The monthly RSI exceeds 70 (as seen in 2018, 2022, and 2025).

2. A monthly reversal candle is formed (as seen in 2020).

Currently, both signals are flashing: the RSI has hit 71, and a gravestone doji has formed. This indicates that the price has erased its monthly gains, signaling a significant loss of bullish momentum.

Signals need confirmation, the modeled support and resistance levels are here to help navigating March:

WEEKLY LEVELS

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Market momentum shifted dramatically on Friday following a landmark legal decision that outweighed concerning economic data. Early reports revealed that fourth-quarter economic growth slowed to 1.4%, significantly missing the 3.0% consensus forecast. Inflation metrics also ran hot, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rising 2.9% year over year. Even so, stocks rallied after the Supreme Court ruled 6 to 3 that the executive branch overstepped its authority by imposing broad emergency tariffs. The President subsequently announced a new 10% global tariff plan lasting 150 days, but the removal of prior legal uncertainties provided a significant boost to investor sentiment.

Technology and consumer companies were the primary beneficiaries of the court ruling. The communication services sector jumped 2.7%, driven by a 4.01% rise in Alphabet and a 1.69% gain for Meta Platforms. Tariff-sensitive Amazon climbed 2.56%, while Nvidia and Apple added to the broad tech sector strength. On the flip side, the private credit sector faced notable selling pressure. Shares of Blue Owl Capital and Blackstone fell 4.8% and 3.57% respectively, driven by concerns over retail fund liquidity. The energy sector also lagged, falling 0.7% as crude oil futures settled at $66.49 per barrel.

Over the weekend, I anticipated that several securities were due for a reversal to recover their Central Weekly Levels (CWL). This thesis played out across our core watchlist:

• Palantir (PLTR): Recovered its $134.5 CWL to close the week +2.9%.

• Amazon (AMZN): Reclaimed the $203 level, triggering a bullish reversal setup and closing up +5.27%.

• Semiconductor ETF (SMH): Recovered $408.3, finishing the week +1.8%.

• Oversold Leaders: Nvidia (NVDA) and Netflix (NFLX) both moved above their key price levels, closing up +3.8% and +2.34% respectively.

The rotation we’ve been tracking into “Real Economy” giants like JP Morgan (JPM), Bershire (BRK.B), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Walmart (WMT), and Eli Lilly (LLY) appears overextended and in healthy pullback process.

Conversely, many tech giants are currently oversold. If these giants wake up, we could see a new leg up for the bull market, heading toward our mid-term targets for the SPX and NDX.

→ Unlock the Publication with the Targets for SPX and NDX in 2026 Click Here. ←

MAGS ETF: A Critical Junction

The weekly chart for the MAGS ETF (Magnificent Seven) suggests the worst of the bearish move may be behind us. The lower Bollinger Band was breached and oscillators reached oversold territory, conditions that mirrored the April 2025 bottom.

As noted above, several securities have recently breached their Central Weekly Level (CWL) reversing from their (bearish) setups. This essential weekly price line is modeled every Friday for 44 core securities. Paid subscribers also have the exclusive benefit of suggesting five additional tickers from their personal watchlists each weekend.

For the coming week, the MAGS ETF must hold above $61.8 to maintain its current bullish reversal setup. A successful hold targets $63.5 as an immediate move, with potential for $64.4 if momentum builds. Conversely, if $61.8 is lost, the next destination is $60.9, representing a potential -2.7% selloff.

Market risk remains elevated, but these well-modeled levels provide you with the objective tools necessary to manage risk and set accurate targets. Unlock the weekly and monthly levels for META, NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, QQQ, SPY, IWM, SMH, and more!

This publication consistently analyzes the following securities to provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Maintaining a consistent watchlist is key to improving performance navigating choppy markets like this one; it allows you to refine the timing of your entries and effectively rotate capital as new opportunities emerge.

If you trade or invest with levels, using them to set targets and to manage risk, you can unlock the ones for the week ahead upgrading your subscription.

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Today’s Agenda: Actionable Levels

Using well-modeled levels is the best tool to manage risk and set objective targets. Today we cover:

1. Weekly Levels: Navigating the week ahead for 44 core securities.

2. Three high probability Setups: Securities with technicals and levels aiming at one direction with conviction.

3. Monthly Levels: Assessing long-term conditions and “Big Picture” trends.

4. Combined Analysis: Identifying confluence between weekly and monthly data.

Let’s begin.

WEEKLY LEVELS

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My notes last week regarding the VIX and SPX were clear for paid subscribers:

“The current price action doesn’t typically reflect a final ‘top’ in volatility. The current level of 17.7 for the VIX is not the cleanest condition for a sustained bull run; a new spike in volatility remains a viable risk.” Additionally, I cited: “For the SPX, a breach of the CWL of 6,901.8 (-0.4%) points to 6,810.6 (-1.8%).”

The actual low of the week was $6,794 🎯, just 16 points away from my target. (Remember this is not gut feeling, this is based on technical analysis and modeled S/R levels every Friday for the week ahead - Like the ones updated for next week)

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Technology failed to provide the necessary fuel for the market. Given its heavy weighting, the rotation observed in other sectors could not mitigate the market cracks highlighted in the Weekly Compass since January 18 🎯.

Our high-probability setups continued to pay off: MSFT, IWM and AVGO reached their bullish targets and reversed, PLTR accelerated its bearish move after breaching its CWL, and GOOG moved downward as expected. COST moved north with choppy price action but reached its bullish target of $1,024 today (the top was just 1.2 dollars shy from the target). From 8 high probability setups only BRK.B moved against its bullish setup, and META opened on Monday below its Central Weekly Level, so there was no material loss.

With six out of eight setups showing directional validation, not to mention others in my blueprint, like NVDA and TSLA, reaching their bullish targets before reversing, I want to highlight the power of individual names in choppy markets and the neutrality of my setups involving megacaps, long or shorts; and different sectors, that outperform the broader market.

This approach is valid for all types of investors. The Weekly Compass provides clear triggers, targets, and invalidation levels, alongside technical studies for moves averaging 4% while indices remain stagnant or volatile. It is an active, profitable approach.

All of this using the Support and Resistance Levels updated today for next week.

I understand that some investors have a longer-term perspective while others are concerned about a major market top. Both views are absolutely valid. For that reason, remember that I provide weekly levels every Friday, as well as monthly levels. The Central Monthly Level serves as a key tool for long-term decision-making, raising red flags for investors concerned about a potential major top if that level is lost.

Last week we studied the performance for the SPX during the last six years using the Central Monthly Level (CML), this is the same analysis for QQQ.

Notice how significant the loss of the CML has been; the red areas highlight the drawdowns that occurred after the CML was breached.

As mentioned last week for the SPX, losing the CML is not a guarantee of a crash or bear market, but is relevant enough to be cautious, but it’s worth noting, SPX, NDX, DJI, Small Caps (IWM), and all the Magnificent Seven lost their Central Monthly Level, unlock the key price levels to watch even for long term investors. They’re posted below for premium subscribers, upgrade now your plan!

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Stop Scanning. Start Anticipating. The secret to consistent performance isn’t finding a “new” stock every day, it’s mastering the ones that matter. We permanently track the market’s Megacaps and key securities with HIGH VOLUME to give you a broad market perspective. This constant focus allows you to catch the capital rotation before the crowd does and pinpoint the perfect time to enter.

We Cover every week (and month):

• Indices: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• Majors: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX, XOM

• ETFs & Commodities: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Crypto: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Ensure you have the right tools to navigate the current market. Unlock the Monthly and Weekly Levels for all of them now.

Let’s begin with the weekly levels, and then the monthly ones, with some high probability setups in advance of the weekend publication.

WEEKLY LEVELS

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This publication relies on precise targets for both bullish and bearish moves, and this week perfectly illustrated why that discipline is essential. We have used these levels to navigate reversals, this week highlighted their relevance in assessing potential bounces as well.

The current stage of the bull market is its most complex. Market conditions lack broad bullish strength, and the VIX was technically due for a bounce as we anticipated. Furthermore, Bitcoin acted as a “thermometer” for risk aversion. What we witnessed this week based on bearish crossovers studied on the weekly charts, lead to an intra-week pullback, as considered in the Weekly Compass.

Professional Navigation: Setting the Targets

Setting targets is about managing reasonable expectations and being prepared for the moment a trend might exhaust itself. Here is how our levels performed this week:

• SPY: We anticipated a breach of the Central Weekly Level with a primary target of 685.2 and a likely extension to 678.54, the actual bottom print was at 675.7 before reversing.

• JPM: Our extension target of 314 was reached with high conviction, allowing traders to lock in profits before a mid-week pullback and subsequent recovery.

• IBIT (Bitcoin ETF): We anticipated an -8.5% decline with an extended target of 43.5. This was reached quickly at the start of the week and extended further.

• BRK.B: Our bullish expectation was met and exceeded. Instead of just the 2.3% target extension at $492.3, the stock rallied 5.72%.

• SMH: We expected a decline with an extended target of 382.5 (-5.3%). The ETF found support near 374.08 before bouncing.

• WMT: Anticipated a 2.2% rally to 121.8. This target was exceeded, allowing traders who trail stops to capture a total rally of 4.13%.

• AAPL: Our bullish setup from a week ago anticipated a move to 276.5 (+3.6%). Apple crossed this level with strength, hitting an initial extended target of 269.4 (+7.2%) earlier in the week.

• QQQ: The bearish extended target was set at 607.3 (a -2.4% decline). The price extended to 596.24 and bounced precisely from that level.

• IWM: The bearish target of 252 (-2.7%) was reached with extreme precision before bouncing, this one was the most choppy one of all the ones anticipated.

Risk Management: The Power of Invalidation

Accuracy is only half the battle; managing risk is what keeps you in the game. Out of the 10 high-probability setups posted last week, 9 moved in the expected direction.

The only setup that was invalidated was META. However, because we used a calculated Central Weekly Level as a reference, the invalidation at the 1.2% mark protected subscribers from a much deeper -7.68% decline.

Looking Ahead

Next month marks the second anniversary of SmartReversals. For two years, these levels have helped investors across the globe set reasonable targets and manage risk through technical discipline.

We use the Central Weekly Level (CWL) to manage momentum, we have seen the power of individual names in choppy markets, since November we have outperformed the market with bullish and bearish setups every week, today I will present in three charts how the Central Monthly Level (CML) works for longer term positions, this helps to answer questions like: What is the direction of the next big move (+/-10%)?, What is the proximity of the next correction?, or the what is the risk of not reaching our bullish target that paid subscribers know is 7,#80?.

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See the daily chart for SPX and the CWL posted during the last two years for every week, this monthly line is a great tool to assess bullish or bearish conditions, our role as traders is to make decisions studying price action, and the chart highlights how significant has been to lose the CML using the red areas:

Of course, there are choppy months like December 2024 when the CML was breached several times, that price action is something to consider as a condition as we use the VIX, divergences, or Bitcoin (you don’t need to trade it, just use it as a risk-on/off thermometer).

The selloff in March and April had a condition: The Price was below the CML.

We use the CWL to time momentum, the CML works better for medium or long term positions, the chart speaks by itself.

CML and Bear Markets

We just saw the case study for 2025, see what happened before the bear markets of 2022 and 2020:

Being positioned below the CML is a condition that increases the chances of a major breakdown. Bear in mind that bear markets have ferocious bear market rallies, if you remember March, or June-July 2022, the FOMO that they created was significant, but even the infamous Jackson Hole meeting on September 2022 that triggered the last major selloff of 2022 happened below the CML.

Another major event covered in the chart is the -10% correction of 2023, see how impressive is the constant condition of being below the CML.

This publication updates every month the CML for each of the following securities, and that CML is always every Friday combined with the weekly levels:

Our Core Watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Unlock the S/R levels for next week, and the essential monthly levels for February, it’s important to highlight that tech is below its CML.

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Exclusively for premium subscribers, my latest ebook details how to master support and resistance levels (find it below), also four high-probability setups for next week.

2020 Crash - Another Clean Example of Losing the CML:

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Macroeconomic developments added another layer to market dynamics. President Trump’s nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair captured headlines, though the move did not immediately shift monetary policy expectations. The announcement arrives as markets navigate the heart of earnings season and ongoing valuation debates. Bitcoin extended its decline during the week, retreating -5% so far to two-month lows near $83,000 as leveraged positions unwound amid the broader risk-off tone.

Our High-Probability Setups performed exceptionally well this week. The bullish expectation for Meta (META), posted one week ago, was proven correct. The stock not only reached the first target of $683.5 (+3.8%) but surged past the extended target of $708.2 (+7.5%). Meta rallied +8.7% for the week, validating the thesis that strong fundamentals and extreme oversold conditions would spark a significant reversal. Of course, we will study the gap.

Microsoft (MSFT) also exceeded its bullish target of 478 (+2.7%) comfortably before earnings. As noted, surpassing a target before a binary event like earnings is a signal to lock profits or adjust stop losses. Amazon (AMZN) followed suit, validating our target of 244 for a 2.1% gain.

These results are significant because the broader market was flat during the week. The S&P 500 closed up just 0.34% and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.21%. Generating alpha with Meta (+7.6%), MSFT (+2.7%), and AMZN (+2.1%) in a choppy environment proves the power of stock selection paired with precise technical analysis and Support and Resistance Levels.

We also capitalized on bearish setups, I anticipated since December 2025 that the times ahead will demand to monetize in both ways, since 2026 is likely to bring turbulence in price action:

• Eli Lilly (LLY): Reached our downside target of $1,021.5 (-4%) on Wednesday. And as anticipated in the Midweek Update (Wednesday after market closed), the stock was likely to bounce, and the price action confirmed my technical interpretation on Thursday and Friday.

• Walmart (WMT): Hit our $116 target (-1.4%) on Tuesday. We are now seeing a rotation from Technology into Retail/Staples, changing Walmart’s momentum.

• IWM (Russell 2000): Successfully reached the bearish target of 260 (-1.8%) on Wednesday, confirming the downtrend.

Regarding risk management, Palantir (PLTR) was a prime example of the protection our levels provide. While the stock plummeted 13.5%, our bullish invalidation level at $167.6 limited the loss to just 1.2% from the entry point. Conversely, J.P. Morgan (JPM) invalidated its bearish setup by breaching the Central Weekly Level of $301.7, signaling an immediate exit after a 1.4% move against shorts.

The Week Ahead

We are entering a historically weak seasonal period within the presidential cycle. Staying nimble is essential. The analysis below includes the Central Weekly and Monthly Levels for the following securities. These levels will help you identify whether stocks are in bullish or bearish momentum for the month ahead. I changed the format to highlight better bullish and bearish conditions.

We Cover:

• Indices: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• Majors: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX

• ETFs & Commodities: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Crypto: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR

• Leveraged: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Maintaining a consistent watchlist is key to improving performance; it allows you to refine the timing of your entries and effectively rotate capital as new opportunities emerge.

Ensure you have the right tools to navigate the current market. Subscribe now

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Below, premium subscribers will find the Weekly Levels for the week ahead, the Monthly Levels for February, and my two eBooks on Essential and Advanced Technical Analysis.

WEEKLY LEVELS

I have improved the format, so you can find easier the bullish and the bearish conditions:

Read more

We anticipated the bearish direction, with NDX, AAPL, and GOOG all hitting their respective downside targets using the levels for this week (dropping -2.3%, -6.5%, and -2.1%). While the levels were correctly forecasted for these high probability declines, the high velocity of the selloff was unprecedented.

Here are four takeaways from this week on why capital protection allows us to thrive even when the waters get choppy using the S/R levels and high probability setups.

1. The Importance of Specific Targets

We correctly identified the direction for this week in the SPX and NDX based on breadth indicators, tech weakness, and a VIX screaming for a bounce. The price levels modeled acted as precise reaction zones: $24,949 served as the exact bounce zone for the NDX, $325.5 for GOOG, $162 for PLTR, and $440 for MSFT just to mention others marked as bearish last week apart from the ones with higher probability.

Over the last two Wednesdays, I’ve shared educational content on the importance of structured setups and how to navigate them. The purpose of a “Target” is to lock in profits before the tide turns, or to move a stop loss if the target is surpassed with conviction.

• The Math: If a trader locks in a consistent 2% per week, the compounding gains are massive. Even a modest 1% gain per week results in 52% annual growth (of course we seek for more and this week the average gain was +3.2%).

• The Execution: Our bearish levels for SPX and NDX were reached by Tuesday. That afternoon, I issued a note highlighting the overextended VIX and considering a bounce for SPX and QQQ, providing specific levels for Wednesday so you could validate it: $6,819 (SPX) and $610 (QQQ). Both levels represented just +0.3% recovery from the lows and an initial validation of a potential bounce that materialized.

The Lesson: Targets are not arbitrary when they are corrected modeled; they are your mechanism for banking wins before volatility can erase them. This publication provides professional price targets for 32 securities including futures, stocks, ETFs, Indices, and Crypto; or 44 securities if we add the levels for popular leveraged ETFs like TQQQ, SQQQ, URTY, UDOW, or SPXS. Unlock all of those levels upgrading the subscription to paid.

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2. The Importance of Invalidation Levels

Protecting capital is Priority #1. In this modeled approach, if the price moves against us, one of two things happens, both of which protect your account:

1. The Trade is Invalidated (Zero Loss): If a setup requires the price to be above our Central Weekly Level / CWL (like a Long setup) and the week opens below it, the trade is in invalidation mode. There is zero capital loss. (It happened AVGO).

2. The Stop/Invalidation is Triggered (Marginal Loss): If a position is open, we cut it using the invalidation level as reference. This week, the Crypto rally vanished. Our setups for BTC and ETH were breached. However, because we respect levels, the pullback resulted in a loss of -1.1%. (For people who uses IBIT or ETH etf the losses were zero, since by Tuesday (when they could be traded) their prices were below the central weekly level (CWL), invalidating the bullish thesis.

3. The Power of “Runners” (Strong Setups)

Even in a sea of red, quality setups shine. COST has been on our radar for weeks. Its high probability bullish setup was outstanding on Tuesday, ignoring the broader market weakness to rally through its target for a >2% gain during the week.

This is the essence of our strategy: We let the winners (like COST, AAPL, GOOG, and NDX) run to their targets, while we cut the losers (like Crypto) at the knees, and the invalidated ones are never triggered (like AVGO).

4. The Intrinsic Message of the Watchlist

We learned that the watchlist itself is a market indicator. Out of 30+ securities analyzed last week, 13 were bearish setups (15 if we include inverse ETFs). When nearly half of a diverse watchlist including heavyweights like BRK.B, NFLX, LLY, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, TSLA, AAPL, and JPM flags bearish, the market is sending a message regarding breadth and sentiment (All of them reached bearish levels modeled a week ago).

Summary

Despite the difficulty of the week, the math speaks for itself:

• Average Gain of Winning Setups: >3.2%

• Average Loss of Failed Setups: -0.7% (-0.4% if using IBIT or ETH ETF since they started the week invalidating the setup, below their CWLs)

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Let’s turn our attention to the week ahead. Below, you will find the S/R levels and gauge the bullish or bearish intent for the following securities:

• Indices: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• Majors: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX

• ETFs & Commodities: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Crypto: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR

• Leveraged: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Make sure you have the right tools to navigate this market. Subscribe now to the paid plan, unlock the S/R levels for next week, access tomorrow’s Weekly Compass and my eBook on Advanced Technical Indicators, which includes a dedicated chapter on mastering S/R Levels. You can find the eBook here, right below the Weekly Levels. Join now to unlock our high-probability setups for the week ahead!

WEEKLY LEVELS

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The stock market concluded the week on a soft note, leaving major benchmarks lower as investors weighed solid economic data against renewed policy uncertainties. The S&P 500 dipped -0.4% and the Nasdaq 100 fell -0.9%, while Small-caps rallied to secure a 2.2% advance. Overall volume remained subdued, reflecting a market in search of fresh catalysts.

This price action mirrors what we saw in November and December 2025: indecisive days, dips that are quickly bought, and rallies that evaporate just as fast. Since then, I have emphasized the power of individual names during times of consolidation. The high-probability setups posted last week confirmed the value of this approach.

The Advantage of a Broad Watchlist: My analysis covers Indices, Metals, Futures, Megacaps, ETFs, and Cryptocurrencies with 30 securities (list below) and some leveraged ETFs. The advantage of this broad (yet trackable) list is the ability to time reversals for your favorite stocks (like TSLA or NVDA) while spotting stronger setups brewing elsewhere. This gives you the information needed to make informed rotations.

Neutrality is Key: We remain market and sector neutral, we follow the charts, not the hype. Last week, in the middle of choppy conditions, the technical data favored Crypto, so I emphasized the bullish case for Ethereum and Bitcoin, alongside bullish setups for COST and AVGO. On the bearish side, LLY was signaling a pullback, which materialized exactly as expected.

For subscribers monitoring specific names, we also anticipated the moves for WMT (bullish), JPM (bearish) and PLTR (bearish). Every setup provides a clear roadmap: actionable insights, price targets, and invalidation levels to manage risk.

We maintain a cumulative accuracy rate of 75%. This publication is built on facts, numbers, clean charts, and straight to the point guidance.

Weekly Results:

• ETH: +7.3% (Bullish analysis confirmed)

• COST: +4.2% (Bullish analysis confirmed)

• AVGO: +3.3% (Bullish analysis confirmed)

• WMT: +4.5% (Bullish analysis confirmed)

• LLY: -4.1% (Bearish analysis confirmed)

• JPM: -5.1% (Bearish analysis confirmed)

• PLTR: -4.0% (Bearish analysis confirmed)

• IBIT: +6.2% (Bullish analysis confirmed)

• TSLA: +1.3% (Reversed before target)

• NDX: +0.8% (Reached target and reversed)

On Wednesday I posted educational content about the anatomy of a winning trade, this edition helps you navigate the setups in a friendly way with updated charts for the key securities for the week. Use the S/R levels to navigate momentum or to lock gains, AVGO was a real life example of how to lock gains once the target is reached. Get access here:

Unlock the high probability setups for next week, along with the essential support and resistance levels for the week ahead. These levels are essential to set our targets and the invalidation levels for all setups using the Central Weekly Level (Bullish above, bearish below).

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This publication consistently analyzes the heavyweights below because they are the engines of the market. A constant watchlist eliminates the noise and allows you to trade with confidence; you will instantly recognize when the “character” of a stock like NVDA or AAPL changes, giving you the edge to rotate capital effectively and strike when the Risk/Reward is in your favor.

The High-Impact List:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

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The market is at a tipping point. Don’t trade blind. Subscribe now to get the levels for next week, 20+ detailed charts, and our actionable Weekly Compass. Equip yourself with the right tools to handle the coming moves.

WEEKLY LEVELS

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Success in the markets is about disciplined technical analysis and precision setting price targets. This week, 8 of our 9 high-probability setups hit their targets, proving once again that a market-neutral approach wins in any environment (not focused solely on Tech, nor limited to long positions).

My technical approach anticipated a critical rotation into the Dow Jones and non-tech giants, also from a technical bounce that was brewing in Crypto, and the bearish setups well documented during the last weeks in the Weekly Compass:

• We caught the rally in DIA (+2.3%) and JPM (+3.1% to $335) while identifying the explosion in MSTR, which surged 8% past our second target. ETH (+2%), IBIT/BTC (+4%), and WMT (+2% to $115) all hit their anticipated marks.

• You can make money in declines as well. Crucially, we stayed bearish on AAPL, validating our multi-week call, dropping another -4.3%, while TSLA hit our exact downside target of $425 (-3%) before bouncing.

Those eight successful setups were documented in the previous Weekly Compass. All nine posted setups came with an invalidation level, which, in the single case that moved in the opposite direction, simply prevented an entry.

Upgrade your subscription now to gain immediate access to our high-probability setups for next week!

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By providing clear price targets and invalidation levels, we help you let your winners run while aggressively protecting your hard-earned capital. Stop guessing. Start executing.

The support and resistance levels are essential during these times of volatility, the targets mentioned above for bullish and bearish setups were calculated on the modeled price levels and chosen based on technical indicators applied for each security, let’s study what are the ones for next week for the following securities:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Having a broad set of securities provide a better market perspective and empower your trading decisions, premium subscribers receive a combination of technical setups, price levels, and momentum using the following map making easier to locate the best securities to trade:

When you upgrade your subscription, you also unlock my eBook on advanced technical indicators, which includes comprehensive sections on:

• Volume Profile

• Support/Resistance (S/R) Levels

• Advanced Oscillators

• Valuation Ratios

• Confluence Analysis

• Case Studies

The eBook is right here in this publication! 👇👇👇 below the S/R Levels for next week.

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I presented a guide on navigating the high-probability setups in last Wednesday's mid-week market update. Click here for acces.

WEEKLY LEVELS

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Last week, the Weekly Compass anticipated a bullish context for the overall stock market that played out perfectly. Following the setup highlighted for premium subscribers, the SPX jumped 1,4%. As shown in the chart below, our analysis identified a specific pattern (highlighted in yellow) that suggested bullish continuation for the week that just ended.

My approach combines technical indicators with modeled support and resistance levels. A cornerstone of this strategy is the Central Weekly Level (CWL). When the price stays above the CWL, it validates a bullish setup; when it remains below, it confirms a bearish outlook. For this week, the CWL sat at $6,805. Since price action remained consistently above this threshold, traders using the CWL as a reference for stop-losses or decision-making were able to stay in the trade and secure +1.4% gains for the S&P500 during the week.

See a segment of the analysis shared with premium subscribers. To view the complete publication with all the indicators for SPX and other 20 securities, click here: Positioning for Santa Season

$6,890 was anticipated on the chart as immediate bullish target, but the price jumped to the next key level also anticipated in our analysis. It hit $6,956 with exact precision today at the open and consolidated during the rest of the day.

High-Probability Setups: The Formula for Success

My top picks from last week performed well, the front runners were: NVDA (+6%), SMH (+3.3%), and NDX/QQQ (+1.27%). Each of these setups, detailed with charts for premium subscribers, maintained its bullish structure by holding above its specific Central Weekly Level (CWL), the individual analyses for them were conducted as for SPX as the summarized example presented above.

The Power of the CWL and S/R Zones

Why do we model these levels? To frame the week’s price action with precision. These zones act as a roadmap, helping subscribers identify profit targets and spot reversals before they happen. This method proved vital for LLY (+1.7%) and PLTR (+2.8%), both of which reversed at the bullish target zones provided in the Weekly Compass.

My analysis covers several securities and it was good to see COST (2.1%) forming a bullish reversal formation as considered in the Weekly Compass, same case for AVGO (+3.7%).

High-Probability Setups: The Formula for Success

My top picks from last week performed well, the front runners were: NVDA (+5.3%), SMH (+3.0%), and NDX/QQQ (+1.2%). Each of these setups, detailed with charts for premium subscribers, maintained its bullish structure by holding above its specific Central Weekly Level (CWL), the individual analysis was conducted as for SPX as the summarized example presented above.

The Power of the CWL and S/R Zones

Why do we model these levels? To frame the week’s price action with precision. These zones act as a roadmap, helping subscribers identify profit targets and spot reversals before they happen. This method proved vital for LLY (+1.7%) and PLTR (+2.8%), both of which reversed at the bullish target zones provided in the Weekly Compass.

My analysis covers several securities and it was good to see COST (+1.9%) forming a bullish reversal formation as anticipated in the Weekly Compass, same case for AVGO (+3.7%).

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CWL as Insurance

A professional, clear analysis of price action is the superior method for navigating the market. By cutting through the noise of social media and mainstream news to focus purely on price, we maximize our probabilities. This week, only two of our nine high-probability setups (TSLA and AAPL) were invalidated on Monday. However, today’s close brought them back to weakness.

This highlights the core purpose of the CWL: it provides an objective tool for decision-making. It protects you from getting drawn into painful selloffs on long positions or getting squeezed on short positions when the price moves against you.

Securities Permanently Analyzed in Premium Content

Having a broad market view you can monitor the market like professionals, and you can rotate positions or manage better your entries and exits if you’re focused on specific securities - This publication is effective for both cases:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

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Now, let’s look at the levels. A quick reminder: Premium subscribers have the privilege of suggesting specific tickers. Last week, we provided over 60 key levels for assets including ORCL, TSM, BABA, IREN, AMAT, and many others, empowering members to catch reversals and ride momentum.

WEEKLY LEVELS

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Volatility is unfolding following the rate cut as anticipated. We previously forecasted that the two weeks following the move would be choppy, and that has certainly been the case.

On a positive note, the S&P 500 filled the gap at $6,776.4 as expected. This is a constructive development given the bullish probabilities for the days ahead, and our upside target (shared three weeks ago) remains on the horizon. The documented target analysis for SPX and NDX can be found here:

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Today’s publication focuses on Support and Resistance levels for the week ahead. These levels are modeled in advance of price action and have demonstrated their predictive power to premium subscribers for nearly two years.

I use these levels to define the specific ‘Bullish above / Bearish below’ bias and to set targets: bullish setups aim for the next resistance, while bearish setups aim for the next support. This directional bias is grounded in the technical analysis posted on Saturdays. Notably, the success rate of our high-probability setups reached 80% this week (including the PLTR trade, once it recovered the Central Weekly Level and bullish momentum returned)

Performance of this week’s high-probability setups:

• 🎯 TSLA - Bullish Setup Reaching the Second Target

• 🎯 BRK.B - Bullish Target Reached followed by a reversal from the target

• 🎯 LLY - Bullish Target Reached

• ❌ NFLX - Bullish Setup Invalidated

• ❌ COST - Bullish Setup Invalidated

• 🎯 IWM - Bearish Setup Validated

• 🎯 AMD - Bearish Setup Validated

• 🎯 NVDA - Bearish Setup Validated and bullish reversal from the target

• 🎯 PLTR - Volatile: Initially lost the CWL, then rebounded to exceed target

• 🎯 SPX - Gap Filled

These setups were forecasted last weekend, anchored by the levels shared in this publication. This marks our fourth consecutive week of high accuracy. Make sure to subscribe before 2026! Prices won’t change for current premium subscribers.

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This publication consistently analyzes the following securities to provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Each weekend the high probability setups are highlighted, and if you like a lot one of these securities they are regularly analyzed anyway.

For educational content on Support and Resistance levels, visit my Market Intelligence Library, all the content here alone is worth the subscription. Visit the S/R levels in section 3. Identifying Setups:

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As usual, we analyze the weekly, monthly and combined levels for all the securities mentioned above, and when you’re a paid subscriber you can suggest additional stocks for analysis commenting below this post, sending me a DM, or in the paid subscribers chat before Sunday noon N.Y. Time, they’re posted on Sundays.

Last week premium subscribers suggested ORCL, IREN, VXX, TSM, CRWD, TSM, and many more securities, suggest yours!

WEEKLY LEVELS

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As noted on Wednesday, rate cuts are typically followed by choppiness, and our analysis of the short- and medium-term outlook is playing out as expected. Thursday’s bounce was a surprise given the weak structure and the breach of the Central Weekly Level (CWL); the intra day move appeared justified only by oversold conditions in the NDX. However, AVGO set the stage for the typical post rate cut reality. The semiconductor giant crashed on earnings, plunging 11.4% on Friday and dragging semis, tech, and ultimately the broader market into deeper bearish territory.

The bullish setups posted last Saturday performed well in terms of reaching the immediate bullish targets: MSTR hit its +8% target, PLTR reached its target with a +3.6% gain, and NVDA jumped +2.8% toward its target with precision. While these targets were hit accurately during the week, the market volatility caused those gains to vanish during the week. TSLA was an outlier, it fell initially but recovered to finish the week slightly green with a marginal gain of 0.9%.

(*The variations% mentioned were the moves to the bullish destinations set as absolutes last week for those stocks, same for the bearish moves% mentioned below).

Is this the top?

While Tech is certainly struggling, the market appears to be in the midst of a rotation. Several bearish setups anticipated last Saturday played out effectively, with key names hitting their downside targets: LLY fell -2.9%, WMT dropped -3.1%, and AAPL touched $273 with precision for a -1.8% decline intra-week. Following these moves, these securities bounced, further suggesting a rotation (The Dow Jones closed the week in the green, +1.12%), financials (XLF) +2.4%, materials (XLB) +2.4%. Meanwhile, SLV remains a beast, it didn’t even breach its Central Weekly Level (CWL) to validate a potential pullback, it continued roaring.

Upgrade your subscription to paid and unlock the bullish and bearish setups for next week, and read the individual analyses since some securities have long term setups, as AAPL had three months ago.

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The support and resistance are essential during these times of volatility, the targets mentioned above for bullish and bearish setups were calculated on the modeled price levels posted last Friday, let’s study what are the ones for next week for the following securities:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Having a broad set of securities provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions.

If you want to learn the basics of technical analysis, read this publication posted on Monday. It was available to all subscribers and shows how technicals and Support and Resistance Levels work together.

Let’s continue with the market commentary, and the Support and Resistance levels for next week considering the securities mentioned.

When you’re premium subscriber you can suggest every week the stocks of your interest, and their S/R levels are modeled on Sundays afternoon New York time. Upgrade your subscription to the paid plan before the new year! - The high probability setups have presented a success rate between 70% and 80%.

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Market Observations before the S/R Levels:

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Two weeks ago, this publication anticipated a strong bounce in the U.S. indices. The market delivered: the SPX rose +3.7%, the NDX gained +4.9%, and my top pick for the week, IWM, rallied +5.6%. For the week that just ended, a consolidation was expected, and the indices closed essentially flat.

Last week, I shared with premium subscribers high-probability trades that defied the consolidation, these four were posted, and the results were impressive:

• META jumped +3.9%

• TSLA surged +5.8%

• SMH rallied +3.5%

• SLV gained +3.4%.

These are clear, and easy to understand setups that include specific safety levels to define stops in case of invalidation.

Just one of these trades pays for the subscription. This new feature in the Weekly Compass is a no brainer for both advanced and new traders. My approach relies on technical indicators, using Support and Resistance to set precise price targets and exit levels when a setup is invalidated. Unlock the premium content now!

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With the addition of the Momentum Map, customized Support & Resistance levels, and now High Probability Trades, we have significantly enhanced the service this year. Lock in your subscription at the current price today!

The Weekly Compass where those trades were posted is here:

The current market structure is no new or different from previous long term patterns, see where we are right now and what to expect for 2026 here:

Upgrade your subscription so you don’t miss out these opportunities.

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Today we analyze the Support and Resistance levels for next week, these levels are essential for assessing technical setups and the momentum map. For example: when a stock is in the oversold quadrant AND the technical setup suggests a bounce (like few weeks ago for TSLA or LLY), the central weekly level acts as a simple validator: “bullish above” and “bearish below”. The subsequent levels then serve as actionable targets for both pullbacks and bounces.

The central weekly levels for the week that just ended were $676 for SPY, $176 for NVDA, $611 for QQQ, and $631 for META; in all those cases acting as momentum. validators as the price remained above these lines. In the same way, $384 for AVGO and $483 for MSFT, helped signal the invalidation of bullish setups and served as crucial reference points for setting stop losses and protecting capital.

This publication consistently analyzes the following securities to provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

When you are premium subscriber, you can suggest additional securities so their weekly levels are modeled and posted on Sundays in the paid subscriber’s chat.

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Shooting Star Candle in the SP500

This candlestick is the opposite version of the hammer and dragonfly formation as the arrows below highlight; when those candlesticks show an intra day reversal, they are a significant signal to watch, sometimes they are immediate tops or bottoms, and sometimes they are early signals.

Let’s see the central and monthly levels updated, they can help validating next week the potential reversal candles that were printed today across the board, being the SPX the most important to watch. The section below also includes the stock market and crypto space commentary:

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