It was a volatile and difficult week on Wall Street, as major U.S. indexes finished lower across the board. The market logged its first back-to-back weekly losses since March, primarily dragged down by anxiety over massive corporate spending on artificial intelligence (AI), surging energy costs, and new trade policies.

Key Market Drivers This Week

• Big Tech AI Spending Jitters: Q2 earnings sparked investor concern as GOOG dropped -7.8% for the week following raised capital expenditure guidance for AI data centers, while TSLA plummeted -17.8% amid negative free cash flow driven by massive investments in AI and robotics.

• Geopolitical Escalation & Energy Volatility: Oil (CL=F) surged over +10.6% reaching $90 following Middle East hostilities and Red Sea tanker attacks.

• Rising Treasury Yields: Energy price spikes fueled inflation fears as I highlighted on Wednesday, creating downward pressure on equity valuations ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.7% and rate hikes are on the table for this second half of the year.

My Weekly Compass last Saturday was titled "Triple Threat" based on three key factors that effectively injected downward pressure on the stock market this week. Now, a fourth factor has emerged, extending the list of hurdles for an already weak price action that we have been tracking:

• New Tariff Regime: The U.S. administration introduced a permanent tariff overhaul ranging from 10% to 12.5% on 60 trading partners under Section 301, triggering sharp declines across Asian and global chip-heavy tech indices.

As mentioned recently, these events serve as catalysts for a pullback in overextended charts. The semiconductor euphoria needed a reset, much like we saw in precious metals earlier this year, and in individual names that seemed unbeatable in 2025 such as PLTR, MSFT, META, and NFLX. This is why technical analysis is essential: when prices are overextended, it can flash warning signs for long-term investors who want to avoid 30% drawdowns or even deeper losses. Just look at the current price of those names versus their highs, which is the same story for MU, QCOM, and MRVL despite Jensen Huang's call for "the next trillion-dollar company," alongside many others. This is why this publication works for both traders and long-term investors. From the recent bullish opportunities highlighted recently, AAPL and XOM stand out, both are up 15% this month alone.

Levels as Confirmation Tools

A chart can be overbought printing warning signs studied here for subscribers, and in order to avoid premature decisions (selling too soon or buying too early), the support and resistance levels modeled here in advance for the next week and month set a bullish above / bearish below line that after more than two years of this publication have proven their worth to make more informed decisions.

Today, most of the securities tracked here closed below their central weekly level for next week. More critically, this week the SPX and many other securities lost their central monthly level (CML); as we have studied, monthly levels validate price structures for the longer term. For this week, for example, the SPX and QQQ were considered to set a bullish move to 7,549 and 717 respectively, but they breached their central weekly levels (7,490 -0.4% and 702 -1%) invalidating the thesis and acting in this case as capital protection. The weekly levels also help establish specific targets, as was the case this week for JPM, GLD, IBIT, and ETHA (Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs), which reached their respective targets of 353 (+3.5%), 382 (+3.7%), 37.3 (+3%), and 14.6 (+5.2%). The favorable risk-reward ratio that comes with applying disciplined level management is clear.

These levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.

Our Core Watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Unlock this valuable tool by upgrading your subscription to the paid plan, paid subscribers receive three core weekly publications (Friday, Saturday, Wednesday), plus daily updates for the SPX and its daily levels. Next week is packed with earnings I will also track daily MSFT, META, QCOM, AAPL, AMZN, KO, V, and XOM.

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Let’s begin,

WEEKLY LEVELS

As the analysis below highlights, the SPX, NDX, DJI, ES, and NQ futures are all in negative territory along with their corresponding ETFs (SPY, QQQ, DIA), alongside IWM and SMH. The percentages highlighted in red indicate the moves needed to recover bullish momentum. Interestingly, a few tech stocks and non-tech mega-caps remain in the green:

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Wall Street endured a volatile week as a deeper pullback in major technology stocks snapped recent winning streaks in the SPX. For that reason, we closely tracked the QQQ / NDX in our daily market analysis this week.

Semiconductors remain under pressure. This week alone, the market darlings continued to be punished: AMD lost -11%, MU -13%, AVGO -7%, and NVDA -4%. The semiconductor ETF SMH we tracked throughout the week, fell -9%.

China’s newly unveiled “Moonshot” AI model and valuation concerns added pressure to the weak conditions we identified in last Saturday’s Weekly Compass for the SMH, NVDA, AVGO, and AMD, especially considering their failure to hold essential price levels after reversing from overbought conditions I highlighted in this publication in June, when many people were euphoric and skeptic about the overbought conditions in semis.

Technicals are proving their worth alerting about overextensions in semiconductors, just as they did with GLD and SLV since March, with PLTR since November, and with NFLX since July 2025.

That said, the NDX dropped -4% this week, breaching a highly relevant level and printing a major crossover. July is not proving to be as bullish as macro analysts suggest based on statistics (biased when there is a bias in years selected). A few weeks ago, I shared in this publication that the winning streak for July is starkly different if you compare the last 20 years to the previous 20; the story is completely inverse. For that reason, I always recommend analyzing charts and remaining skeptical of statistical tables that do not reflect the price action story behind every year analyzed.

Friday is our day for mapping the support and resistance levels for the week ahead. Below, you will find the levels where institutional algorithms are most likely to react. Numbers always tell the truth, and the weekly lows for TSLA, AMD, NVDA, and GOOG to name a few, they matched these levels (376, 468, 197, and 345.5, respectively)… same for the highs of the week for AAPL, WMT, and XOM to name a few (337, 117, 149, respectively).

Weekly levels for the week ahead are updated below for the following:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

These levels are modeled every Friday to help you assess bullish or bearish conditions and risk/reward before the market opens on Monday. You do not have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan; you have the distances to essential levels and the setups indicating whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, allowing you to make informed, serene decisions before Monday morning. Unlock these levels by upgrading to the paid plan:

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When you subscribe you also receive daily updates for the SPX with daily levels.

Before continuing let’s remember my note last night about NFLX considering the selloff, paid subscribers knew the very high odds for a reversal at the opening, the stock bounced from -12% at the opening ($65, where weekly and monthly modeled levels matched) to -7% at the close (reaching the modeled weekly level of 69), that was an easy +5% scalp. The key levels to navigate NFLX next week are below. Be careful being bearish in this market without levels that can anticipate reversals.

Regarding the SPX, the 20 daily moving average was breached and the oscillator is falling from overbought conditions, with a lot of space before getting oversold. Losing this moving average is usually concerning, the levels for the SPX and complete analysis is below. Plan ahead your trading week identifying the securities that are in bearish or bullish conditions and their distance to their targets + invalidation levels, get access now:

WEEKLY LEVELS

The SPX is in bear zone, the level to recover in order to flip momentum is not as close as in previous days, and the context for tech is more challenging.

There is always an opportunity, red marks are the securities struggling, green marks in the same column are the stocks in confort zone:

Read more

Every Friday, I model support and resistance levels for the week ahead, covering the S&P 500 (SPX), key ETFs (QQQ, SPY, IWM, GLD, SLV…), all the Magnificent Seven (NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, TSLA…), and other mega-cap stocks. My technical analysis is designed to identify momentum or the probability of reversals based on established indicators, which I transparently detail in every publication for every stock, making this content action-oriented and educational.

I model these levels to reflect where institutional algorithms are likely to react. By utilizing the central weekly, monthly levels as validators, we can navigate price action with greater precision.

How to Use These Levels

These publications provide a first look at whether a security closed above or below key levels for the upcoming week, allowing you to gauge whether the initial condition is bullish or bearish. These levels serve as validators for momentum; for example, a “bullish setup” remains valid as long as the price sustains itself above the central weekly level.

Recent Performance & Validation:

• SPX: This week, the SPX maintained a bullish bias by staying above 7,457, the bullish target based on a modeled level was 7,566 for a +1.1% move. The index climbed +1.2% 🎯.

• GLD: The bullish setup targeted of 383.3 (+1.4%). The ETF achieved this move before retracing 🎯.

• IBIT: Our weekly Bitcoin study set 35.8 as a bullish target for this ETF (+2.6%), with a potential extension to 36.7 (+5.2%). The high of the week was 36.7 🎯, confirming how institutional algorithms respect these levels.

• WMT: We anticipated a bullish reversal with a recovery of 112; the bounce was validated once this level was reclaimed, the bullish target for next week is here.

• MSFT: The setup was bullish above 380.9 aiming at 401.8, the monthly level at 396.18 acted as resistance, interrupting the weekly setup. This highlights the importance of combining weekly and monthly levels as presented below.

• ETHA: We highlighted a bullish setup targeting 13.4 (+3.9%). The price high reached 13.7 🎯, surpassing target and nearly hitting our secondary target of 13.9.

• SMH: I noted on Wednesday that the target of 563.3 (for a -4.9% move) cousl be considered reached, as the actual low was 566.83 🎯.

These are examples of levels as targets based on technical analysis. These levels also work as risk management tool. For example, NFLX suggested a bullish setup, the target was 80.4 for a +3.5% weekly move but the stock vanished again, good news for subscribers, the invalidation level was 75.7, a reference to set stops based on your own risk tolerance, in order to avoid the selloff to 72.5 as the weekly low where many traders could have capitulated.

Subscribe, the S/R levels are modeled every Friday, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade (jumping among tickers); you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.

The Levels are Modeled for this Core Watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Important Notes:

• SpaceX (SPCX), as the new stock added to the Nasdaq100 (NDX) is modeled here every week as well.

• Daily Levels for SPX are provided to subscribers with the market analysis, that is a major upgrade to my service. Subscribe now to the paid plan, prices will change soon, and current PAID subscribers WON’T (again, WILL NOT) see a single change in their subscription price. Become a paid subscriber now!

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Current Market Outlook

This remains a choppy market, particularly within the technology sector. While the Magnificent Seven are showing resilience by bouncing from oversold conditions (as anticipated for META, AAPL, and NVDA), the semiconductor sector is still fighting to recover key levels and re-establish bullish momentum. SMH is not “out of the woods” yet; MU and AMD have gaps below acting as price magnets and TSM has a weekly shooting star still in play, just to mention few examples.

Let’s begin.

WEEKLY LEVELS

Securities marked in red are the ones in bearish territory at this point, and the percentage highlighted with red is the minimum required bounce to validate any bounce as bullish. See for example NFLX ahead of earnings and SPCX with a major requirement to be in bullish zone:

Read more

Last week, the Weekly Compass highlighted a clear divergence within the technology sector: Semiconductors were signaling a bearish reversal, while the Magnificent Seven were showing deep oversold conditions in the daily backed by massive daily volume.

The results this week confirm this rotation. The semiconductor ETF, SMH, fell -9.7%. Micron (MU) served as a stark reminder of gravity, dropping -14% as the stock moved to fill the 1,083.3 gap I anticipated in the Weekly Compass. Conversely, the Magnificent Seven presented signs of awakening, with the following weekly gains: AAPL +8.7%, GOOG +6.4%, META +6.0%, MSFT followed with a +4.7% gain as a high-probability setup, AMZN +4.0% and TSLA +3.6% (despite today's flush). NVDA rounded out the group as the weakest performer with a weekly gain of +1.2%.

Beyond technology, both GLD and SLV are showing signs of a bounce, jumping 1.2% and 3.3% respectively, as the technical formations indicated oversold conditions last Saturday. Unlock all the analyses by upgrading your subscription to paid.

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The previous Weekly Compass can be found here:

Methodology: Data Before the Opening Bell

My approach is rooted in technical indicators transparently presented to subscribers every weekend. I model these support and resistance levels every Friday (or last day of the week as today) to provide the information necessary to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday.

You do not have to wait for the opening bell to formulate your trading plan. By providing the exact distances to essential levels and defining whether they will act as support or resistance, You can make informed, calm decisions well before Monday morning. This is why I publish this report every Friday (Thursday for this week) around 6:00 PM New York time.

As a perk, I’m posting daily levels for SPX for all paid subscribers, do not miss out, they work as early reversal signals when the central daily level (CDL) is breached.

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Last night, I highlighted the relevance of 7,484 as central daily level for the SPX, the price opened well above it, but the indecisive price action sealed the day when that level was breached by 11:30 AM, 7,448 was visited as a daily support, and in confluence with a key monthly level the price bounced to close with daily indecision.

The macro picture added significant weight to this price action. June hiring came in soft, with employers adding 57,000 jobs against a consensus estimate of 114,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, average hourly earnings rose 0.3%, and weekly jobless claims held steady at 215,000.

Price action rarely anticipate moves when earnings reports are posted, but reaction to economic news can be anticipated in a better way, the structure was and continues weak.

Watchlist Coverage

The levels are calculated for all securities on our watchlist, focusing strictly on mega-caps and high-volume ETFs. This ensures your orders are filled efficiently and that leveraged instruments remain readily available for your trading strategies (Space X is now part of our organic list!):

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

WEEKLY LEVELS & SEMICONDUCTORS

Before going to the levels, let’s study how damaged is the structure for semiconductors with the technical chart.

Read more

Monthly levels set the structural tone for bullish or bearish momentum in an index or stock, while also serving as major boundaries that frame price action.

For example, NVDA traded during June between 233 and 191, which marked the resistance and support boundaries around the Central Monthly Level (CML) of 214. Once the CML was breached on June 5th, it validated a bearish momentum flip. A similar pattern played out with the SPX: once it lost its CML on June 5th, price found support at 7,302. What makes today’s price action interesting is the recovery back to 7,451, which is the Central Monthly Level for the month ending.

Below are the monthly levels for July. The recent bounce has been productive, the high volume highlighted in the Weekly Compass is being confirmed as a bullish signal, the SPX recovered 7,392 as indicated in the Saturday blueprint, reaching 7,491 as the primary target for the bounce 🎯.

Our Core Watchlist

The monthly levels are analyzed for these securities, if you invest in some of them, or are interested in a constant watchlist of megacaps and assets with high daily volume, this publication is for you:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Unlock this valuable information to assess momentum, targets, and risks.

Daily levels for the SPX are below as well.

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Remember, SpaceX (SPCX) is not part of the monthly and weekly levels.

MONTHLY LEVELS - Is the SPX out of the woods?

The response is below, also for the NDX, QQQ, SPY, all the magnificent seven, crypto and major megacaps and ETFs.

Read more

On Monday, the S&P 500 fell 0.4%, breaching the central weekly level (CWL) of 7,493.7, as anticipated in Saturday’s Weekly Compass in the high probability setups. The SPX exhibited several underlying cracks in its price action, despite the 1.1% rally observed on June 18th before the long weekend.

Once our modeled central weekly level was breached, validating my bearish thesis, Tuesday saw steeper declines as South Korea’s KOSPI crashed 9.9%. This marked its sharpest fall in over three months and sparked a global semiconductor selloff (consistent with overheated conditions we have studied). As a result, the NDX tumbled 3.2%, and the S&P 500 retreated 1.44%. By the end of the week, the SPX reached my extended bearish target of 7,318.4, completing a 2.4% drop 🎯.

Other high-probability setups also played out with precision:

• AMD: Reached its bearish target of $510, completing a -5% move 🎯.

• SMH: Exceeded my bearish target of a 4.6% drop, closing the week -7% 🎯.

• MSFT: Hit $356 in a clean bearish move of -6.1% 🎯.

• GLD: Highlighted as a bearish setup, it reached $364.3 for a -5.8% decline 🎯.

The modeled S/R levels also set a risk management level, a price line that if breached invalidates the directional thesis, for this week DIA and JPM did not fall as expected, but their stop loss references were clearly included in the setups Blueprint at $517.4, and $327.4 respectively, for an average -0.5% from Friday’s close.

That means:

• Average gain of the high probability setups: +5.3% gains

• Average loss for invalidated setups: -0.5%

(For those new to the stock market, short selling allows both traders and investors to profit when prices fall)

Unlock the S/R levels for next week presented below by upgrading to the paid plan.

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As a perk, I’m posting daily levels for SPX for all paid subscribers, do not miss out, they work as early reversal signals when the central daily level (CDL) is breached.

My approach is rooted in technical indicators transparently presented to subscribers every Saturday, and these setups utilize specific, modeled price levels for the week ahead.

I model these levels every Friday to provide you with the information necessary to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You do not have to wait for the opening bell to formulate your trading plan. You are provided with the exact distances to essential levels and the setups indicating whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, empowering you to make informed, calm decisions before Monday morning.

Many traders make decisions before 8:00 PM Eastern Time on Fridays, when extended hours close across major brokerage platforms, another reason to post this every Friday around 6PM NY Time.

The levels are calculated for all securities on my watchlist, focusing strictly on mega-caps and high-volume ETFs. This ensures your orders are filled efficiently and that leveraged instruments remain readily available for your trading strategies:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

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The monthly levels section explains why the Structure is damaged.

Let’s begin.

WEEKLY LEVELS

The column highlighted with red markers presents the current distance to next week’s central weekly level (CWL). For example, AVGO must rally 4.4% before any potential upside can be considered technically valid. As you can see, there is red across the board. Regarding JPM and DIA, the current setup has simply delayed the broader move. In last night’s daily note, we reviewed the technical conditions for the Dow Jones, and those conditions are amplified in the financial sector. XOM is also suggesting a delayed move.

Keep the levels for the futures also included in mind, given the overnight price action:

Read more

My approach to support and resistance levels is built on anticipation. The goal is to identify in advance the zones where algorithms react.

In this space the customized support and resistance levels are posted for paid subscribers.

Every single is framed before the week starts, so paid subscribers can make decisions ahead of the market open.

The S/R levels for the constant watchlist are posted every Friday, if you recently subscribed, get access to the latest publication here:

Access the S/R Levels Hub

This is not based on historical trend lines. These are support and resistance levels where institutional algorithms have repeatedly proven to react.

Again, having these levels in advance lets you plan your moves without the rush of Monday morning when the market opens. This allows you to plan the trade, and then trade the plan.

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Support/Resistance Levels + Technical Indicators

The Weekly Compass is my publication posted every Saturday with charts, technical indicators, and these levels, giving you a directional reference for momentum or potential reversals. Since November, I have been posting high-probability setups with a cumulative success rate above 75% (8 months already), built entirely on technical analysis. No gut feeling. Nothing hidden. Every setup comes with targets and invalidation levels, transparently explained. The Weekly Compass posted yesterday is here:

→ Weekly Compass

The Support and Resistance Levels for next week are here considering the constant watchlist:

→ S/R Levels for the constant watchlist

To learn more about High Probability Setups, and Support & Resistance levels, read the following publications I have written to guide the subscribers in this topic:

• How to Lock in Gains During Rapid Market Swings

• Unlocking Market Secrets: Mastering Support and Resistance Levels

• Managing High Probability Setups

• Support and Resistance Levels - How to Take Action

• Combining Weekly and Monthly Support and Resistance Levels

• High Probability Setups - Combining Technicals and S/R Levels

• Anatomy of a Winning Trade: 9 Essential Factors

Subscribe and unlock a complete library of educational content with fresh case studies and charts. This section alone updated every Wednesday is worth the subscription for both investors and traders.

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Here are the Support and Resistance Levels for this week based on the stocks suggested by paid subscribers.

WEEKLY S/R LEVELS

Read more

The S&P 500 closed at 7500.6, up 1.1% on the session reclaiming its central weekly and monthly levels in the same move. The session brought a bounce from yesterday's breakdown. The price action showed indecision rather than strong conviction closing the day without a clear directional candle.

Worth noting: SPX is sitting very close to its central weekly level for next week (CWL, details below), meaning that line is being tested right now. The recovery of both the CWL and the CML today is a constructive short-term development, and holding them through the next session will be essential to keep momentum and break above the bearish diagonal. The Stochastic crossover suggests caution, most of them have been validated, losing next week’s CWL would be a validation sign. For the bullish scenario, it’s unlikely to see a divergence like the one observed in April, since the price is not that oversold.

The Support and Resistance Levels updated for next week are here, they worked to set the bullish and bearish targets for the setups studied a week ago.

These levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.

Last night I posted a guide about how to manage these levels using setups from this same week. Get access here:

The levels below are modeled every single week or the following securities:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

If you invest in some of these securities, this publication is for you.

When you subscribe, you also unlock all my Market Intelligence Hub, including educational content, 2 eBooks about technical indicators with real life charts, and special research focused on the SPX.

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Let’s begin.

WEEKLY LEVELS

The divergence between growth sectors leading and Financials trailing is an interesting mix to watch, particularly if rates or credit concerns are weighing on XLF while semis and tech rally.

The percentages highlighted in red show the price move each asset needs to recover bullish momentum; the green cells in the same column show the maximum downside tolerance before flipping to bearish conditions, see how despite the bounce, there is very little room to the downside for the SPX next week while the Dow Jones is already below the key level:

Read more

• AAPL: My blueprint anticipated a decline to an extended target of 297 (-3.1%). It extended further, hitting its 3rd support at 290 for a weekly move of -5.3% 🎯.

• SPX: Targeted a -1.2% decline to 7,294. This acted as the support zone where the price bounced on both Wednesday and Thursday 🎯.

• MSFT: I expected a decline to 398.6 (-4.3%). The actual move went deeper to -6.3%, exceeding our bearish expectations 🎯.

• GLD: Targeted an extended bearish level of 383.7 (-3.2%). It bottomed below at 371 (-6.2%), hitting a weekly level we modeled and posted a week ago 🎯.

• VXX: My technical set anticipated a bounce to 26.1, with an extended target of 27. The exact top of the week was 27 (+7.2%) 🎯, marking another great hit.

• AVGO: Targeted 349. The weekly low was 370 (-4.1%). Profitable ✅, and directionally correct.

• BRK.B: Expected a move to 496.8 (+1.8%). Price action remained constructive above the central weekly level 👍.

All seven setups were directionally correct, with five hitting their exact targets, one still very profitable, and one still in progress. 6 out of 7 correct for a 85% success rate with a 5% average gain.

The Setups Blueprint includes targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in our watchlist. While I handpick the ones with the best technical conditions to reach their targets, paid subscribers who want to follow specific securities like QQQ, IWM, AMZN, TSLA, NVDA or others, they will always find them analyzed with precise price targets and clear bullish or bearish conditions.

For example, these setups were also included in the Setups Blueprint from last weekend:

• LLY: Target of 1181 (+4.4%) caught the exact top of the week 🎯.

• JPM: Target of 319 (+2.4%) was met perfectly today 🎯.

• AMZN: I forecasted a -2.9% drop to 239; the actual move reached -3.04% 🎯.

• META: The bearish target of 569.8 (-3.9%) was exceeded moving -4.39% 🎯.

Securities Covered Every Week:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

The Weekly Support and Resistance levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk/reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning. Unlock this golden tool by subscribing to the paid plan.

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As for the S&P 500, today’s move was constructive. However, the key resistance zone mentioned last night to our premium community was not recovered, the updated levels to consider a validation to bullish momentum are below.

WEEKLY LEVELS

Read more

Over a month ago, I updated my SPX bullish target to 7,638, utilizing the annual line that has been included in my charts since the beginning of the year. On Wednesday, I highlighted that this target could be considered effectively reached when the market printed all-time highs at 7,620. Following today’s sharp sell-off, that analysis has proven remarkably accurate 🎯.

When I establish a target for a weekly, monthly, or annual timeframe, I rely strictly on technical indicators and support and resistance models mapped out well ahead of price action. As my paid subscribers know, this is not the first time an anticipated top has precisely triggered a major sell-off; the February 2025 top stands as another successful example.

Yesterday at 6:00 PM New York time, I sent a special alert to subscribers warning of a major reversal sign that was flashing in real time. It was not necessary to wait for today’s closing bell to recognize just how precarious and risky the conditions had become for technology.

In yesterday’s note, I identified the SPX Central Daily Level (CDL) at 7,566 as our key “bullish above / bearish below” zone. I also flagged the Central Weekly Level (CWL) at 7,559 as a critical threshold that, if breached, would trigger a significant decline. Overbought conditions in the SPX (and across the technology sector specifically) were extreme as highlighted in recent publications analyzing the weekly patterns. The velocity of today’s sell-off is consistent with the market losing that key confluence zone, not to mention the subsequent loss of the Central Monthly Level (CML).

Bears broke through three crucial structural levels today in the SPX. We saw the same breakdown occur in the NDX and QQQ, both of which closed the day with major bearish conviction.

In last Saturday’s Weekly Compass, I anticipated a bearish reversal for AAPL, SMH, IWM, and AMD; as a bullish reversal for VXX. When I forecast these structural turns, I do so using precise, actionable numbers: the Central Weekly Level. Those exact levels and their corresponding targets are updated here every Friday exclusively for paid subscribers.

Ahead of the upcoming Weekly Compass release, I have already modeled the preliminary downside destinations to consider for the SPX. Upgrade your subscription today to unlock the technical analysis and protect your capital for the week ahead.

These levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.

Our Core Watchlist: If you trade any of these securities, this publication is for you:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

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Today’s report also brings several red flags considering securities that lost their Central Monthly Level.

SPX - Levels to Watch:

Read more

Hello everyone,

Today’s introduction is available in audio format, where the core benefits of our Support and Resistance framework are described. The audio also dives into the high-probability trades anticipated last Saturday for TSLA, AAPL, and MSFT, using them as fresh, real-world examples of the model in action. Below, you will find your fully updated weekly and monthly levels to guide your trading strategy for the days ahead.

These levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to watch levels, decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.

Our Core Watchlist

This publication consistently analyzes the following securities to provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions. Maintaining a consistent watchlist is key to improving performance; it allows you to refine the timing of your entries and effectively rotate capital as new opportunities emerge.

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Subscribe to the paid plan and unlock all the levels and premium content:

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If you enjoyed this audio format, make sure to tap that like button so I know to keep producing more content just like this.

Let’s begin. We will review the weekly levels first, followed by the monthly ones, and conclude with a combined view so you can easily anticipate critical confluence areas.

WEEKLY LEVELS

Among the main highlights, see how NVDA and GOOG flipped conditions, same as PLTR in both the weekly and monthly levels:

Read more

U.S. stocks advanced ahead of the long weekend, positioning the S&P 500 for an eight-week winning streak. This marks the longest weekly run for the benchmark index since December 2023. The S&P 500 rose 0.88% after approaching to our bearish target of 7,325 and bounced. The NDX gained +1.2% also after touching its bearish target of 28,609 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 2.2% during the week. This late-week strength emerged as investors absorbed falling government bond yields and a pullback in energy costs (Crude Oil fell -8.2% during these five days).

The positive finish capped a volatile five-day period defined by accelerating inflation and a global bond market selloff. April’s Consumer Price Index rose 3.8% year-over-year, surpassing market forecasts. This hotter-than-expected reading drove the 10-year Treasury yield toward 4.6%, its highest mark in over a year, while the 30-year yield climbed to levels unseen since 2007. Investors positioned for central bank rate hikes to combat inflationary pressure tied to Middle East geopolitical risk. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s April meeting backed this expectation, showing a majority of officials viewing rate increases as appropriate if energy-driven inflation continues. A 25 basis point hike is now fully priced in for this year.

Sectors and asset classes shifted materially under these macro conditions. Higher borrowing costs weighed on materials and utilities, both posting steep weekly declines. Corporate earnings drew sustained focus, particularly quarterly results from Nvidia (-4.4%) and major retailers like Walmart -8.5%). In digital assets, Bitcoin dipped below $80,000 early in the week and is closing Friday near $75K.

Support and Resistance Levels

Trading is entirely about probabilities and risk management, probabilities based on technical indicators that provide directional references for price action, and risk management using price targets and invalidation levels. Every Friday the support and resistance levels for the week ahead are modeled, these levels have proven to frame price action ad the Setups Blueprint posted in the Weekly Compass anticipated for this week:

Example of targets set for this week:

• LLY hit the bullish extended target of $1,069.9 (+6.5%) 🎯

• COST hit and crossed $1,075 (+2.6%) 🎯

• PLTR touched $138.0 (+3.0%) 🎯

• TSLA nailed its downside target, hitting our 394.2 modeled (-6.6%) 🎯

• IWM hit my bearish target of 270.8 (-2.4%) 🎯

Example of Risk Management:

• META was expected to print a bullish move targeting $627 (+2.2%), the primary move was bearish, so the invalidation level of $610.2 (only -0.7%) acted as a reference to manage risk, protecting capital from the selloff to $596.6 (-2.9%).

Every weekend I publish the setups for all the securities of our watchlist, I highlight the ones that I see with the highest probability given the market conditions, but you can choose your own, for example, the setup for V (Visa) anticipated 330 as target and 335 as extension target, with an invalidation level at 324. The high of the week was 335 🎯.

The levels covered every Friday for the week ahead include:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Subscribe to the paid plan, and unlock essential information for next week.

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SPX: The indecisive candle suggests caution and most likely a pullback next week. The Central Weekly Level that must be breached to validate that thesis and the potential targets are posted here.

Weekly levels for swings, monthly levels for longer term investments, they are here and the tables below show them combined.

WEEKLY LEVELS

Read more

U.S. equities retreated from recent record highs as geopolitical friction and a sharp bond market decline weighed on investor sentiment. The S&P 500 printed a muted week with a net gain of +0.13%, the Dow closed muted -0.1%, and the NDX declined -0.38%.

Sector dynamics told a divergent story. Energy outperformed sharply, rising +6.7% during the week (XLE), while high-growth equities bore the brunt of the selloff. Discretionary dropped 3.1%, reflecting renewed caution. Materials and utilities also surrendered 2% each as Treasury volatility rippled across the complex.

Macro sentiment remained clouded by competing crosscurrents. President Trump’s diplomatic visit to China fueled optimism around potential purchases of Boeing aircraft and agricultural goods, though formal trade agreements remain unconfirmed. Meanwhile, Middle East geopolitical instability sparked a significant bond market selloff as traders repriced for potential supply shocks, creating the additional headwinds that ended the week on a cautious note. Discussions of Chinese purchases of U.S. oil and expanded access for financial service providers like Visa continue to circulate, but confirmations have yet to materialize.

If you recently subscribed, my publication posted last Wednesday assess the roadmap for the SPX in 2026:

Link: → SPX: Why Bears Should Stand Ready

The Power of Levels: Performance Review

Support and resistance levels acted as essential references this week to validate momentum, protect capital, and set clear objectives based on technical indicators.

• For this week, our expectation for a bearish move in JPMorgan (JPM) was proven true. With a target of 296.3 (a -1.9% move), the level was reached with precision on Tuesday, and revisited on Friday.

• TSLA: Reached my bullish target of 445 for a 3.9% rally at the beginning of the week. As mentioned on Wednesday, caution was essential because the price looked overbought, as presented in my specific charts. This was a highly successful trade, and it highlights why setting strict targets at this market juncture is essential to avoid giving back gains, or why utilizing daily levels for narrower metrics to set tighter trailing stops.

• IBIT: Reclaimed its Central Weekly Level (CWL) and reached the bullish target of 46.4.

• MSFT: Validated my bullish reversal thesis after recovering its 416.1 CWL, hitting the 427 target for a 2.9% move.

• AAPL: Exceeded its primary 300.4 target and neared extended targets, maintaining its constructive multi-week structure.

• V: Recovered the 320 CWL on Monday and hit its 327 target (+2.6%) on Tuesday, where it is now consolidating.

• LLY: Triggered our risk protocols after jump-starting its bullish move ahead of schedule, overriding the expected initial bearish week. $964.2 was the risk management reference for shorts, and 1,011 was the extended. bullish target calculated in this publication. The high of the week was just 10 dollars above it. This highlights why strict execution and invalidation levels are critical.

All of those specific levels were modeled here one week ago. My methodology is based on technical analysis to assess momentum and identify potential bullish or bearish reversals. When providing an analysis, I establish these levels to anticipate exactly where algorithms are likely to react during the upcoming week.

The levels covered every Friday for the week ahead are:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Subscribe, and unlock essential information for next week. The Central Weekly Level is the bullish above / bearish below reference, and for next week the SPX has to jump to recover bullish momentum. Get the level with the bearish targets if momentum accelerates (or bullish ones if the price bounces).

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These levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.

When you subscribe, you also unlock all my Market Intelligence Hub, including educational content, 2 eBooks about technical indicators with real life charts, and special research focused on the SPX.

WEEKLY LEVELS

Red across the board, all the indices have work to do to recover momentum, and most of the magnificent seven must jump or the weakness could accelerate, mostly in the case of TSLA:

Read more

The U.S. stock market had a milestone week ending May 8, 2026, characterized by record highs and strong economic data that countered ongoing geopolitical tensions. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both hit fresh all-time highs as the “V-shaped recovery” and the “Three Weekly Soldiers” setups continue being validated.

This is the sixth consecutive weekly gain for the SPX and the NDX. Technology and semiconductors continued to lead the charge, fueled by persistent demand for AI infrastructure. Conversely, the energy sector lagged mid-week but saw late recovery as oil prices fluctuated.

April Jobs Report: The U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in April, nearly double the 65,000 expected. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, signaling a resilient labor market despite higher energy costs.

Jobless Claims: Initial claims marked 200,000 versus 205,000 expected, further reinforcing the narrative of economic stability.

Iran Peace Hopes: Markets were highly sensitive to news of a potential 14 point peace plan involving Iran. Renewed optimism for a diplomatic solution caused oil prices (WTI) to drop as much as 7.4% during the week.

The Q1 earnings season remains a primary driver for equity performance, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gained 26.2% during the week, while Micron had its best week in two decades gaining +37%.

Navigating Market Structure: The Power of Weekly Levels

Support and resistance levels allow us to define the direction of price action. By utilizing our “bullish above, bearish below” model, we can validate high-probability setups with precision. For this week, the Central Weekly Level (CWL) for the S&P 500 (SPX) at 7,203 acted as our critical line in the sand (or 717 for SPY). On Monday, the price attempted to breach this level, but the zone held as firm support. This defense fueled a rally that ultimately surpassed our bullish target of 7,368.

The price action was even cleaner for the Nasdaq 100 (NDX). The CWL of 27,458 was never breached (or 667 for QQQ), even during Monday’s volatility. Following a brief consolidation, the price moved systematically through each level. By Tuesday, the Nasdaq reached its second bullish milestone of 28,039, and after consolidating that afternoon, it continued higher with major conviction. Similarly, the IWM held its key level of 276.4 despite a momentary dip on Monday, eventually reaching our second bullish target of 285.

The efficacy of these levels was also evident in individual stocks: for TSLA we anticipated a CWL of 384. This level acted as precise support on both Monday and Wednesday, confirming the bullish bias we anticipated in the Weekly Compass.

GOOGL: After holding its 369 CWL, Google moved directly toward its bullish target of 397, finding resistance at that level.

The securities analyzed in this publication every week are:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Using support and resistance levels allows us to time momentum effectively. Weekly Levels for traders, Monthly Levels (also here) for both traders and Investors, subscribe and unlock the levels for next week.

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We validate a bullish thesis for the short term as long as price maintains its footing above the Central Weekly Level, while a breach signals a potential reversal. Furthermore, these levels help us set realistic weekly targets, as they correlate with the specific zones where algorithms frequently consolidate or validate moves.

Let’s begin:

WEEKLY LEVELS

Don’t chase the euphoria if the price is below these levels, and don’t short either if the price is above them:

Read more

This week has been one of the most consequential for the 2026 market, defined by a historic Federal Reserve meeting and a flood of top-tier economic data. The Fed opted to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% for the third consecutive meeting, but the decision was marked by a rare level of internal dissent not seen since 1992. Four officials broke from the majority, signaling a significant rift over how to handle the “oil shock” caused by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. With Brent crude hovering above $100 per barrel and headline inflation spiking to 3.3% in March, the central bank’s “wait-and-see” approach is being severely tested by rising energy costs and a resilient labor market, where jobless claims recently hit their lowest levels since 1969.

On the corporate front, the Q1 2026 earnings season reached a fever pitch as over 900 companies reported, led by the “Big Five” tech giants. Apple delivered a standout performance, surging over 3% on a revenue beat of $111.18 billion, while Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon faced intense scrutiny over their massive $700 billion AI infrastructure spend. Beyond technology, the energy sector took center stage as ExxonMobil and Chevron reported results that beat estimates amid the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz blockades—though headline profits declined sharply year-over-year due to unfavorable hedging and timing effects from the oil shock. Despite the geopolitical volatility, the S&P 500 has managed to absorb these shocks, with FactSet data showing a sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth, providing a fundamental cushion against the macro uncertainty.

As studied yesterday, April closed with a historical rally that was significantly stronger and more rapid than the recovery seen in April 2025. While there is clear bullish conviction and the long-term odds for continuation remain high, the very short term suggests a healthy pullback. This thesis is supported by indecisive price action on the daily timeframe and overbought conditions currently reflected in the RSI.

Also on the bullish front, I want to highlight today’s bounce off the 50DMA by the IGV Software ETF and leading software stocks in general. NOW, PLTR, CRM, ADBE, and many others I analyzed last Wednesday rallied today.

The purpose of the Wednesday publication is to provide market intelligence to both long-term investors and short-term traders, offering insights for informed decision-making. Links to recent publications are available below the chart.

My Most Recent Market Intelligence Publications:

And one posted since November about my 2026 SPX target:

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Upgrade to a paid subscription to unlock all of the premium content at smartreversals.com. Today, as with every Friday, I’m providing the S/R levels for the following securities. These levels frame price action and validate technical setups; if you trade any of these assets, this publication is essential for you:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Paid subscribers can suggest additional stocks, so the levels are modeled and delivered on Sundays.

Educational content about using Support and Resistance Levels:

• Support and Resistance Levels - How to Take Action

• Combining Weekly and Monthly Support and Resistance Levels

• Confluence - Find High Probability Setups Combining Indicators

• Mastering Options

• Anatomy of a Winning Trade

Let’s begin.

WEEKLY S/R LEVELS

Read more

U.S. equities ended a volatile week on Friday, April 24, with a stark divergence across major indices. Technology shares powered the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 to fresh record closing highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged behind to finish in negative territory. The Nasdaq emerged as the clear weekly winner, gaining 2.4% over the five days. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% for the week, to close at a record 7,165.08. However, the blue-chip Dow ended its three-week winning streak, falling 0.4% for the week to settle at 49,230.71.

Corporate earnings provided crucial direction for investors amid the macroeconomic volatility. Semiconductor companies drove much of the late week momentum, spearheaded by a historic 23.6% surge in Intel shares following strong first-quarter earnings and an optimistic financial outlook. This momentum sparked a broader rally across chipmakers, lifting peers such as AMD 14% and Qualcomm 11% in a single session. Tesla, the first Mag-7 reporting saw a weekly decline of -6%.

Software has been the second dominant theme this week (after Semiconductors). Interestingly, while individual names saw major sell-offs, the IGV (Software ETF) managed to close flat for the period.

The weekly chart below highlights bullish MACD crossovers over the last eight years, covering the 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2025 bear markets, alongside reversals in 2019, 2023, and 2024. Historically, 8 out of 10 of these signals were sustained, leading to continued bull trends. In only two instances was the signal invalidated, resulting in lower lows.

The data shows that bullish reversals at oversold levels (below zero) typically generate follow-through, which is the current case. For this month, the outlook remains bullish as long as the price stays above the 81.7 monthly level; a break below that mark would serve as an invalidation reference for the bullish thesis.

In addition to the technical analysis, a special fundamental study of Software was posted on Wednesday, providing a close-up on eight giants including PLTR, ORCL, CRWD, NOW, ADBE, PANW, and SAP. For investors and traders, the analyzed scenarios are a good read; some of these securities are showing interesting long-term opportunities. Get Access here:

• Software: Backbone of the Digital Economy

For new subscribers, three weeks ago another fundamental special was posted, that day for NVDA, TSLA, META, AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, and AVGO:

• Investing in the A.I. Era: The Magnificent Eight

Both specials analyze the context for each company and medium term scenarios related to their CAPEX recovery. Subscribe to the paid plan, and unlock the content.

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Find below the Support and Resistance levels for next week, including the crucial Central Weekly Level that validates momentum (bullish above / bearish below), and the Central Monthly Level that is crucial for both investors and traders, since it is breached few times per year and paid subscribers saw in March the implications of not recovering it quickly.

Maintaining a consistent watchlist is key to improving performance; it allows you to refine the timing of your entries and effectively rotate capital as new opportunities emerge. The levels posted every Friday begin with the SPX, and include the following as well:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

If you trade some of them, this publication is for you. Subscribe to the paid plan and unlock all the content at smartreversals.com, including educational publications about using support and resistance levels:

• Support and Resistance Levels - How to Take Action

• Combining Weekly and Monthly Support and Resistance Levels

• Confluence - Find High Probability Setups Combining Indicators

• Mastering Options

• Anatomy of a Winning Trade

Let’s begin.

WEEKLY LEVELS

Read more

The targets were based on these modeled support and resistance levels, and I was doubtful of some of them reaching their target considering the previous two rally weeks, but once again, these levels frame price action and in the same way that they worked in bearish weeks during march, they worked well during this bullish move.

Top Performing Setups

• Bitcoin / IBIT: This was my high-conviction play regardless of broader market action. IBIT hit the extended target of $43.7 and closed the week at $43.9, delivering a robust +5.7% move. If you trade Bitcoin the move is even better for a +9% this week so far. Bitcoin has a very high probability setup.

• NVDA: The bullish move based on the volume shelf acting as launchpad sent the price to the extended target of $200.4. The stock exceeded expectations, closing the week at $201.6 for a +6.9% gain.

• META: I have highlighted its fundamentals and oversold technicals. From the extended target of $684.8 (+8.7%), the stock surged to close the week at $688.5 with a +9.4% move.

• ETHA: The extended target was $18.1 (+6.4%). The ETF closed the week at $18.37.

• QQQ: The extended target was $663.3. The index reached $648.0, marking a strong +6.14% weekly gain that exceeded expectations.

• AAPL: The target of $266.5 (+2.3%) was easily cleared, with the price closing the week at $270.0 (+3.67%) actually nearing the extended target of 272.6 today during the day.

Target Hits and Technical Discipline

• NFLX: The stock reached and exceeded our extended target of $106.8 (+3.7%) prior to its earnings report.

  Strategic Note on Earnings: As seen with recent price action, the market is punishing stocks that do not provide perfect guidance. Trading through earnings is a lottery; setups can flip instantly regardless of technicals if the Street finds something unappealing. Same as 3 months ago, if a bullish target is reached, locking gains is prudent.

• JPM: Despite initial weakness, the price stayed above our invalidation level (CWL) of $304.6. It trended bullishly toward the $316.5 target, reaching a high of $314.9. Given the proximity, we consider this move constructive.

• Bounces: The expectations for relief bounces in PLTR, TSLA, and V all materialized.

Invalidation (1 out of 12)

• LLY: This was our only outlier. It lost the $934.0 invalidation level, ending the week down -1.3%. While the structure remains somewhat constructive, it must recover key levels to reclaim the bullish thesis.

That said, the Support and Resistance Levels proved their worth allowing us to anticipate potential targets and managing risk in the case of LLY thanks to the Central Weekly Level (CWL) that was breached.

Looking Ahead

The levels for the coming week are posted below, identifying the “Bullish Above” and “Bearish Below” zones for both the weekly and monthly timeframes. We will analyze the charts in full tomorrow to identify which securities have the highest probability of continuing their bullish momentum.

Securities Analyzed Constantly Every Week:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

The SPX is the core of this publication, and the rest of the watchlist combines sectors and assets, always with one principle: High Daily Volume that allows you to fill orders rapidly and use the options market if preferred.

Subscribe and get my two eBooks on technical analysis in my welcome email.

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Intriguing Chart : XOM

Hammer candle with high daily volume breaching the lower Bollinger band, oversold oscillator, a gap above today’s candle, and a gigantic gap when considering the volume at price (green horizontal bars). This is usually a good combination for a bounce.

Dead cat or a sustainable one? The answer is in the S/R levels below.

Let’s begin.

WEEKLY LEVELS

Read more

When the market began its bounce on March 31, essential levels were reclaimed. First, the Central Daily Level (our “Bullish Above / Bearish Below” indicator) sat at 6,362. The price opened above this level, providing an immediate bullish signal to subscribers who use our levels for validation. Subsequently, our Central Weekly Level (CWL) of $6,458 “sealed the deal,” confirming the weekly reversal and validating the bullish setups for the SPY, DIA, IWM, and QQQ anticipated the prior week.

Last week, as market conditions improved, I posted a set of bullish setups with the following results:

• AMD: Exceeded its extended target of $234.3 (+7.7%), peaking at a +12.6% weekly gain.

• META: Highlighted for bullish continuation with an extended target of $629.2 (+9.5%); it closed the week at $629.86.

• AVGO: Surpassed its modest +5.7% extended target to reach a massive +18% gain.

• MSFT: Reached its extended target of $385 (a +3.3% move) before retracing.

• COST: The extended target as 1,036 for a +2.1% move, the price reversed exactly after touching that point on Thursday.

• SPY: With an extended target of $677.1, for a +3.2% move, the high of the week was $682, only five points above the target, allowing an easy profit taking or adjustments of stops.

• QQQ: $608.2 was the extended expectation with a +4.0% move, the actual weekly move was 4.4%

How are these high-probability targets set? They are derived from professional technical analysis and these modeled Support and Resistance levels, which are updated every Friday. Each setup includes a Central Weekly Level to manage stops and invalidate the thesis, along with primary targets, extended targets, and “inversion” levels if the setup flips from bullish to bearish.

Not all setups are bullish. For example, XOM was identified with a bearish target of $154.7 (a -3.7% move) as long as the price remained below $165.5. The actual weekly move was a significant -5.9%.

Unlock the Support and Resistance Levels for next week including these securities:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

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Having a constant set of securities help you managing rotations and anticipating moves in your favorite individual names.

Today I’m adding some historical charts that will provide references to manage the gap printed on Wednesday for the SPX and our securities in general, including the bearish gap for XOM and VXX.

Unlock essential information for your trading next week.

SPX: A Strategic Multi-Year Perspective on Key Support

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Modeled Support and Resistance Levels Framed Price Action

The pathway to a green close was not smooth. On Monday, the SPX extended its oversold conditions, moving toward the bearish weekly target of $6,216. Once the overextension concluded, also breaching the lower daily Bollinger Band, the price began the “imminent bounce” anticipated this weekend in the Weekly Compass, where I mentioned the following:

For the week ahead, there is a high likelihood of a relief rally. We will remain focused on the major indices, as the SPY, QQQ, IWM, and DIA are showing potential for a trend reversal. If they recover their Central Weekly Levels, we can begin considering individual setups.

During this turbulent environment, I am posting daily levels so the community can identify early signals of a bullish reversal. This allows us to act without waiting for a 2% move to recover the central weekly level, especially considering the distance from Monday’s close to our $6,458 key level.

That said, paid subscribers knew that reclaiming $6,362 on Tuesday would validate a bullish reversal. The subsequent layers of levels provided further validation and references for trailing stops as the price moved toward $6,458, our “bullish above / bearish below” level for the week. As observed this week, daily levels function well as intermediate targets.

Last night, I anticipated that the reversal candle set the stage for a potential gap fill, not only due to the price action’s structure but also because of the intraday reversal that placed today’s Central Daily Level at $6,579. Since this was above Wednesday’s close, that condition applied pressure to the price.

Trying to anticipate Trump’s specific comments would have been imprudent. While the market expected rhetoric favoring a rally (perhaps a retreat from Iran) that was not the case. Consequently, the market sold off 1.5% overnight, opening below yesterday’s gap. However, dip buyers jumped in above the CWL and at the stretched daily level of $6,494 shared yesterday with subscribers. The gap has now been filled for good, clearing the pathway for bulls who may have been concerned about that magnet.

There is one critical element to consider: the Central Monthly Level. I have shared this since Tuesday so paid subscribers could identify the key level that must be reclaimed to establish better conditions for longs. That level is still acting as resistance, and the current market structure suggests we are not yet out of the woods.

The current price structure can be compared not only with 2025 but with 2022 and many more bear markets, including 2018, 2008, and others. Two examples for the SPX:

The current structure is perfectly comparable with those years considering the sharp selloff and key monthly levels breached in March, the CML zone is definitive to consider bullish continuation or not in April. From our watchlist, many securities made it above that essential level, let’s study the combined Weekly and Monthly levels with their relative distance to the current prices.

This publication consistently analyzes the following securities to provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions. Maintaining a consistent watchlist is key to improving performance; it allows you to refine the timing of your entries and rotate capital as new opportunities emerge.

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Make sure you read my latest Market Intelligence publication, where you can see one single pattern that matches with the bear market bottoms during the last 40 years, including the crashes in 1987 and 2020. If we are in a bear market this measures the potential move remaining. I provide my point of view with also a clear and objective analysis. This is a must read for investors and traders.

• 40 Years of Bear Market Bottoms in one Pattern

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Unlock all the content and the essential levels for next week, they frame price action in every market environment.

Let’s begin with the levels.

WEEKLY LEVELS

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Geopolitical turmoil drove the risk-off move. Tensions escalated sharply on Friday following reported strikes on Iranian steel and power infrastructure and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil futures reversed early week losses to trade back above $100. Gold, historically the default safe haven is stable and recovered early week losses, the bearish reversal shows the worst slump since 2008. Bitcoin held between $65K and $72K, touching again our annual support level.

Last Wednesday we studied in a special edition about risk management, how difficult can the market be when the VIX is above 20, today the volatility index closed at 31, and the indices breached key support levels.

The publication mentioned presented examples of trailing stops for long positions, today I want to bring an example for short positions using the levels that I posted in the premium chat this morning. The levels were posted for all the magnificent seven, other major stocks, and of course, the SPX and key ETFs like QQQ.

Managing Levels for Short Positions:

The concept of “central level” refers for the price zone where a security is bullish above it, and bearish below it. The Central Monthly Level (CML) has proven to be a essential risk on/risk off threshold as we studied in previous publications. No good things happen below the CML. Needless to say, most of our equities studied lost their CML, just XOM and VXX are above it. There are monthly support and resistance levels that are modeled for each month.

Then we have the weekly levels and the Central Weekly Level (CWL), they work for swings, and when the VIX is high, the rapid moves among them are constant, as we have seen during eight weeks already.

Given the wide space among monthly and weekly levels, there are daily levels with intermediate layers that facilitate navigation or provide early reversal warnings.

Several securities were posted in the premium chat, QQQ was one of them and provides a real life example of trailing stops for shorts:

The price closed on Thursday at 573.8 (1), the CWL was 588.8 (next week’s updated below), in case of a reversal, waiting until 588 to turn bullish was a long shot, so it was worth knowing the CDL (2), and for today it was 577.3, that was much closer.

Bulls can stay safe out of any long below 577.3, so waiting is an approach. Bears can short the security given the high volatility index. in that case, shorting QQQ setting a stop above 577.3 was valid.

The price didn’t try to fill the gap at the opening, it continued the selloff, breaking below the weekly support of 571 (3), now flipped to resistance along with the monthly level of 573.6. When a level is lost and there is a short position, the stop can be moved above the new level lost (remember, not exactly at the same level, algos can touch them with precision as we have seen several times before.

The daily support of 569 was breached soon after the opening (4), then, at 1:15 PM approx., the daily support of 566 was breached (5), guess what, any stop loss could have been placed slightly above it. Last Wednesday we studied distances above or below a level.

The price closed close to the lows of the day, after approaching the extended bearish target of 561.5 analyzed in the Weekly Compass last week.

This publication constantly studies the following securities, if you trade some of them, this is for you.

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Megacaps: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

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Now let’s study the modeled Support and Resistance levels for next week, combined with the monthly ones, tomorrow the Weekly Compass comes with the momentum map, and all the charts with technical indicators using these layers to assess setups.

Unlock the updated levels, and the educational content posted last week regarding Trailing Stop Losses.

WEEKLY LEVELS

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