The market remains in a cautiously bullish regime. The rally continues, and fighting the trend can be risky; as mentioned yesterday, using specific levels to identify a bearish reversal is more effective than trying to anticipate one.

Market breadth remains weak: just 41% of the stocks listed in the S&P 500 are above their 20-day moving average, and only 46.5% are above their 50-day moving average. In the Weekly Compass, we discussed the importance of maintaining at least 50% participation, a threshold currently only being met by the 200-day moving average. This essentially shows that while momentum is bullish, there is a significant divergence. Proceeding with caution is essential, as the rally is narrow and driven by a few mega-caps.

We are already seeing some stocks signal potential reversals. Today, Micron (MU) lost its central daily level of 799, let’s keep an eye in the indecisive daily candle, a preliminary warning signal. AMD, on the other hand, recovered from its pre-market lows but is still facing resistance at the monthly level of 457.7.

Those two and INTC are showing signs of indecision, but momentum rotated today in semiconductors since NVDA and AVGO rallied over 4% and 5% respectively.

This is a good moment to recap the Setup Blueprint posted every Saturday, which outlines targets for the Magnificent Seven, U.S. indices, ETFs, and other mega-caps.

Some of the Setups posted on Saturday for this Week:

• Throughout the week, we can see clean moves like NVDA, which had a weekly target of 223 (+4%) and an extended target of 232 (+7.9%). That level was surpassed this week without ever breaching the invalidation level (Central Weekly Level / CWL) of 209 (Again, the table below was posted on Saturday).

• AMZN was identified as bearish last Saturday considering its technical situation, with a weekly target of 268 (-1.7%), contingent on the CWL remaining as unbroken resistance. The bearish move has been clean.

• Intra-week volatility is always a factor, and other targets may be reached in a more “bumpy” way. AVGO is a good example: it breached its CWL of 424.7 on Tuesday but recovered it today with conviction. In this case, using today’s Central Daily Level of 413 helped identify the bullish reversal signal.

The Weekly Compass posted last Saturday is here:

When you subscribe to a paid plan, you gain access to technical deep dives on the SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, SMH, and Bitcoin, as well as all of the Magnificent Seven. We also cover high-impact mega-caps such as AVGO, AMD, V, XOM, and others like COST, which is currently showing signs of a breakout.

Every analysis includes specific weekly targets based on modeled levels every week, along with invalidation levels to help protect your capital and serve as a professional reference for stop-loss placement.

Subscribe now

When you opt into the Founding Member program, you receive daily levels for an expanded watchlist. This includes major mega-caps such as MU, ORCL, KO, BABA, SHOP, TSM, AMAT, and ASML, all of which are available in the Founding Member Exchange Hub where updated downloadable files are uploaded every day.

Daily levels act as early warning signals for reversals because they are narrower than weekly ranges. This helps swing traders make more informed decisions and allows options traders to set precise targets and risk management levels. For example, the central daily level (CDL) for the SPX yesterday was 7,383, which suggested bullish targets of 7,427 and 7,454 as long as the level held. The price opened above the CDL and found resistance at 7,454 with impressive precision. Today, 7,426 served as the central daily level, indicating 7,477 and 7,511 as the next destinations; the price ultimately consolidated today at 7,501.

The daily levels for tomorrow have already been uploaded to the Founding Member Exchange Hub. These include the SPX, SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA, all of the Magnificent Seven, the 11 SPX sectors, ETFs for international indices, and our expanded mega-cap watchlist.

Find them here:

Have a good night everyone, see you tomorrow with the updated levels for next week.

My only communication channels are email and the Substack chat. I do not use Telegram, WhatsApp, Discord, or any other private messaging platforms.

The content provided on SmartReveals.com is for educational and informational purposes only. All analyses, research, commentary, and other materials are intended to help users understand financial markets and are based on my own investment journal, investment concepts, and company fundamentals. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and past performance may not be indicative of future results. This content does not constitute investment or any type of advice. The support and resistance levels are modeled references to manage risk and anticipate potential reversals, each investor must assess their own risk tolerance to set stops.

The stock market continues to move higher; the SPX and NDX marked new all-time highs led by another semiconductor rally that left a daily gap below. This was the case for SMH and MU, though the latter printed indecisive price action. Similar patterns were observed in INTC, AVGO, and AMD, where “doji” type candles formed at the top of the current trend, breaching the upper Bollinger Band.

Anyway, the primary concern is not the euphoric move in semiconductors, but the continued deterioration of market breadth. The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 20 and 50-day moving averages remains in decline.

Ok, conditions can persist for a long time, including breadth deterioration or continuos euphoria; that said, the most critical chart today is a move I anticipated in the Weekly Compass last Saturday. Today’s publication brings the warning and provides access to the daily levels to watch tomorrow. Remember: levels provide validation.

Subscribe now

Bulls and bears alike must be aware of this major move:

Read more

After two years of growing SmartReversals on Substack, I have evolved our tools to ensure you make informed decisions with the agility that scaled analysis provides. The Weekly Compass has transformed from a set of charts into a “Control Tower” that monitors the price action stages of our studied securities. With the SPX at the core of my research, this now includes the Momentum Map and the Setups Blueprint for our entire watchlist (details below).

Our coverage of S/R levels has expanded from 20 to over 40 securities, and our Wednesday publications have shifted from basic educational content to high-level Market Intelligence and Fundamental Analysis, a space where I have anticipated major moves for the paid community with documented analyses.

Over the past two years, I have learned that traders and investors require daily levels to validate moves and anticipate reversals more quickly, they also need narrower levels to navigate the options market. Similarly, there is a clear demand for a structured screening process to identify new opportunities across the indices. Last but not least, investors appreciate the flexibility to analyze customized securities using weekly levels and the structural monthly prices.

The Founding Membership tier was created to meet these needs, providing expanded data on levels and stocks, including downloadable files for your own calculations. This post will serve as our central hub for exchanging those files.

The entire community will receive notifications linked here whenever files are updated, starting with today’s update.

Subscribe now

This is the current set of securities under study each week. The expanded list now includes daily, weekly, and monthly levels for the IGV, the 11 SPX sectors, and ETFs for international indices such as FXI, DAX, and EWJ. It also covers mega-caps like MU, BABA, SPOT, ORCL, NOW, CRWD, and SHOP. Every day, all the levels updated and downloadable here:

Do you like another security? That’s ok, you can suggest it for the Weekly and Monthly Levels, and they are uploaded here.

Don’t think twice. Subscribe today and gain access to the best tools available to make informed, data-driven decisions.

Information Below the Paywall:

• Downloadable file with the weekly and monthly S/R Levels for the expanded watchlist.

• Weekly and Monthly levels for the securities suggested by paid subscribers.

• Daily Levels for Tomorrow, always starting with the SPX.

• SmartScreener results for this week.

If you’re already on a paid plan, your current investment carries right over to the Founding Membership! The full value of your remaining time is calculated and applies as a credit toward your new subscription.

Here’s how it works:

• Subctack measures the time remaining in your current billing cycle (monthly or annual subscriptions).

• We calculate the exact value of those days.

• That total is applied as a direct credit to your Founding Member upgrade.

Essentially, every dollar of your previous payment moves with you into the new plan. It’s the way of ensuring a rewarding and seamless transition.

Downloadable File with Weekly and Monthly Levels

Includes customized securities

Read more

As detailed in last night’s special study on the current structure: charts do not repeat, but technical patterns do. So the probabilities for the SPX reaching the bullish target I projected in November 2025 for this year have increased significantly.

During the March correction, I noted that if a major top were truly in, it would have marked the first bull market in decades with only a single 5% pullback, the rest is history; the bounce happened as also anticipated on the Weekly Compass of March 28th.

In case you missed it, this is the study posted last night assessing the current price action using clear indicators and benchmarks considering rare price events observed in April.

The month ended, and last night I posted the daily levels with a downloadable file, I received good feedback, so let’s use this post to update for all the paid community the monthly levels for May.

Subscribe now

Unlock all the content by upgrading the subscription to the paid plan.

Also, I’m covering some questions that I have recently received about the daily levels.

COMBINED LEVELS:

Read more

Good evening, everyone.

As presented in today’s special study, the market structure remains bullish. The probability of the SPX reaching 7,470 is significant given the current technical alignment. Since today is publication day, I will keep this brief: the SPX maintains a bullish bias for tomorrow. Futures are currently green, and with the CDL at 7,130.4…

Read more

Hello everyone,

A critical week lies ahead. We are not only watching earnings from the tech giants like META, GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, and AAPL, but also other heavyweights on our watchlist including Visa (V), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Exxon Mobil (XOM).

On the economic front, the schedule is packed with market moving events:

Considering the importance of risk management and market context, the following studies are essential for your strategy. Upgrade to a premium plan today to unlock these exclusive reports:

• Weekly Compass (posted yesterday): Detailed technical charts and setups for the SPX, NDX, DJI, the full Magnificent Seven, Bitcoin, and key megacaps.

• Support and Resistance Levels (posted on Friday): Definitive price levels to help you gauge momentum and identify potential reversal points for each security.

• Mag 7 Fundamental Analysis (posted earlier this month when the market was panicking): A deep dive into the AI landscape and CAPEX challenges facing the S&P 500 leadership.

• Software Sector Deep Dive (posted last Wednesday): Is the recent selloff a potential opportunity?. With NOW bouncing 6% on Friday and PANW erasing its Thursday losses, many names in this space still have significant gaps to fill above current prices.

Upgrade now to the paid plan and unlock the content:

Subscribe now

The links are provided below. For paid subscribers, the customized Support and Resistance Levels are included in this edition. This weekend, MU, CRWD, IGV, NOW, and AMAT are among the most frequently suggested tickers.

1/5 → Weekly Compass:

2/5 → S/R Levels:

3/5 → Software Deep Dive:

4/5 → Magnificent Seven in the AI Era - The CAPEX Inflection Point:

5/5 → Customized S/R Levels to Download:

Read more

Last night, when I shared the daily levels, we identified 709.4 as the Central Daily Level (CDL) for the SPY. The logic was straightforward: if that level was lost, the targets to watch were 706.5 and 702.8. Today’s session validated the model, 709.4 acted as the resistance zone for the day, while 706.5 served as the effective support where the price found its floor.

Just as weekly levels provide a roadmap for that period, daily levels frame price action for the “here and now.” Consider these examples of precision from today:

• IWM: Remained resilient, trading between its CDL of 275.5 and the upside target of 277.9. Both levels were anticipated in last night’s update.

• TSLA: In the Weekly Compass, I mentioned resistance at the 200DMA and 40WMA, suggesting consolidation after the recent rally. Today, the CDL of 400.5 was lost right at the open, and price fell to 391.8, a daily support level projected last night.

Why These Levels Matter

Having these levels at your fingertips allows you to anticipate potential destinations and, more importantly, identify potential reversals.

For example, look at the 15-minute chart for NVDA: at 11:15 AM, a reversal candle printed at 198.5 (our second support level for the day posted yesterday). From that precise point, the price rallied, recovering from a -1.6% drop to close back above its CDL of 200.

The Roadmap for Tomorrow

The daily levels for tomorrow’s session are ready, starting with the SPX:

• Scenario A (Bullish/Flat): If the index stays above 7,105.4, expect a flat consolidation or continued bullish bias.

• Scenario B (Downside): If that support fails, the lower layers of defense are posted below.

Using daily levels provides early validation signals and to understand price action between Weekly and Monthly Levels that are wider.

Daily Levels for April 21st

Read more

The SPX closed the week overbought, suggesting a potential consolidation is coming, and on Friday I posted the chart for XOM with a bullish reversal spirit. Today, Oil Futures are jumping +6.5%, the oscillator suggests a reversal, let’s see if the 5DMA is recovered.

Along with the jump in oil, the ES Futures are declining 0.7% at the moment of sending this post. The consolidation scenario for the SPX was considered in the Weekly Compass; let’s monitor central weekly levels to consider any relevant reversal validation.

In case you missed them, the links for the Weekly Compass and Support and Resistance Levels for this coming week are here. As paid subscribers suggested a set of 70+ stocks to be analyzed with the S/R levels approach, the downloadable Excel file is here.

Weekly Compass: Market Conditions - Setups Blueprint for the Week Ahead

Support and Resistance Levels for the Week of April 20th

Special Study on Unfilled Gaps in the SPX since 1970

Customized Levels Analyzed for Premium Subscribers

The downloadable file is below, along with the daily levels for the SPX, all the magnificent seven, and all the securities we track.

Read more

Once in bullish territory, the high-probability setups were triggered. NVDA, NFLX, META, and QQQ had validation, and every one of them has since reached its extended bullish targets. This is a good example of the market’s mathematical nature and the precision of our levels used as triggers.

While the run has been stellar, let’s remain disciplined. The daily levels for the SPX, ETFs, and the Magnificent Seven for tomorrow are now live. Tomorrow is a critical day for the stock market; navigating this rally using our levels remains the key to managing risk.

This is the most important chart today, unlock the analysis by upgrading the subscription to the paid plan.

Subscribe now

The ticker analyzed here is:

Read more

The SPX showed resilience this morning. I shared the key levels in the premium chat before the market opened, featuring the ES_F chart holding the 50-DMA.

• SPX: $6,823 was the essential daily level separating bullish and bearish conditions. After a bounce at the $6,786 support zone at 9:45 AM, a daily bottom emerged, by 9:50 AM, $6,801 was reclaimed, and by 12:20 PM, the SPX formally turned green, launching toward our high daily target of 6,876.

Price levels function like a staircase when momentum is high, while also serving as a roadmap for anticipating potential reversal zones.

For the QQQ, I shared an example with everyone this morning. While the price sat at 605 in premarket, I highlighted 607.9 as the key recovery line in the best case scenario. Once recovered, the upward move mirrored the broader strength seen across the indices, the close for QQQ was exactly at $617.4, see the upper level in the table posted this morning before the market opened, the high was $617.4.

For this reason I maintain that this modeled S/R levels approach frame price action.

Weekly Compass & The Road Ahead

Beyond the indices, I anticipated on Saturday high probabilities of bullish reversals in specific oversold names, that rallied today: TSLA (+0.99%), V (+1.65%), and PLTR (+3.37%). These stocks are essential to watch now; they appear to be following the same recovery path we previously saw in META and NFLX. Unlock the paid plan and get access to the premium content.

Subscribe now

For PLTR, the levels are key, it isn’t “out of the woods” yet, today’s high matched our Annual Level of $134.3 with impressive accuracy. That was the exact high of the session.

Bitcoin is up +3%, a bullish setup anticipated with high conviction. There were other names analyzed such as META, NVDA, AAPL, QQQ, JPM that were resilient today. However, transparency is my priority: momentum could still vanish later this week.

The VIX continues to suggest caution, especially as today’s move occurred on lower volume. This is why Daily Levels are vital. They help swing traders identify early signals of recovery or weakness within the wider weekly and monthly brackets, while providing high-frequency traders with high-conviction scalp targets.

Below are the updated Daily Levels for tomorrow. As a new feature for our premium community, I have also included the Downloadable Weekly Levels File to help you study the overarching structure.

SPX Levels for Tomorrow

SPX is the core index in our publication, and the main ETFs, Magnificent Seven, Megacaps, Metals and Crypto are also analyzed with the same approach:

Read more

Essential chart to watch:

Read more

Today’s intraday pullback validates that warning and is worth studying through the levels shared yesterday. Remember, the QQQ was flagged to “raise alarms” if $587.9 was lost. Overnight price action confirmed this bearish shift, validating the spike in volatility. Upon the opening bell, the selloff accelerated toward the extended daily support level of $579.3. This overextended price action ultimately triggered a sharp bullish reversal at 11:15 AM.

The 15-minute chart highlights a textbook bounce: a Dragonfly Doji printed immediately after an overextended breach of the lower Bollinger Band. As shown in the charts below, the technical principles for short-term timeframes are identical to those used for long-term analysis.

For the SPX, the daily levels posted last night worked just as effectively as they did for the QQQ and many other securities. In this case, the “Bullish Above / Bearish Below” level was lost, triggering alarms for a bearish move at the opening. While that move played out, the index also found firm support at the final daily layer posted last night.

The bounce was not a guarantee; we simply have a bullish weekly setup as analyzed in the Weekly Compass. Technically speaking, the overnight rally is not a surprise, as the price remained above the Central Daily Level and the CML by the close.

Unlock the daily levels for Wednesday, April 8, for the following securities. All levels have been updated below:

• SPX & ETFs: SPX, SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

• Sectors: XLC, XLF, XLE, XLK, XLY, XLI, XLB, XLRE, XLP, XLV, XLU

Subscribe now

When Upgrading, make sure to read these essential analyses for traders and long term investors:

1. Weekly Compass Posted on Sunday with the High Probability Setups

2. Previous Market Tops - 50 Years Study

3. Bear Market Bottoms in one Single Pattern

Let’s continue with the daily levels for tomorrow.

SPX - Bullish Weekly Target Crossed:

Read more

Last week, our Daily Levels were instrumental in anticipating bullish reversals. These modeled “Bullish Above / Bearish Below” indicators act as your primary momentum compass, while our structured Support and Resistance (S/R) levels define the high-probability destinations for the move.

By analyzing the SPX, QQQ, SPY, DIA, IWM, VXX, SMH, the entire Magnificent Seven, and other megacaps like PLTR, NFLX, AVGO, AMD, and XOM, SmartReversals provides the institutional grade tools you need to navigate this volatility with precision.

Example QQQ (SPX is below with more securities):

For tomorrow, the QQQ must hold above $587.9 to maintain its bullish momentum. Today, the tech ETF met resistance at the 20-DMA on vanishing volume. A failure to hold this level suggests a move toward $585.3, and if momentum accelerates, a deeper visit to $582.0. In theory, we have all the day tomorrow before any geopolitical announcement or confirmation, which is expected to happen on Tuesday night NY Time.

The market remains laser-focused on the conflict in Iran. Managing risk is paramount: volume has been declining over the last few sessions, and the Volatility Index (VIX) closed in the green today, a signal for caution.

Conversely, if stock participation remains broad as we saw today, and we avoid a new geopolitical headline that spikes Oil prices, the QQQ has a bullish path toward $591.2, and $593.9 if momentum gains traction.

In volatile markets, “gut feelings” are a liability. Using levels provides the objective triggers needed to identify the warning signs of a deeper move before it happens. Our Weekly Levels have consistently framed the price action even during the recent weeks.

As noted yesterday, this week is critical for defining market direction. Below are the key levels for the following securities to give you a definitive edge in your market timing:

• SPX & ETFs: SPX, SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

• Sectors: XLC, XLF, XLE, XLK, XLY, XLI, XLB, XLRE, XLP, XLV, XLU

Let’s continue with SPX, SPY, and all the other securities mentioned, including the Weekly and Monthly levels combined:

Read more

Most importantly, we had confirmation of the bullish reversal when our daily levels were reclaimed. Yesterday, this publication anticipated bullish momentum for the SPX as long as the price stayed above $6,362. With resistance levels overhead including $6,518 (today’s high of $6,539), the market followed the roadmap. The levels posted last night for today’s session are listed below, providing a real-world example of how to utilize trailing stops on a trending day:

This publication posts daily levels for the following securities, if you trade with levels, this publication is for you:

• SPX & ETFs: SPX, SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

• Sectors: XLC, XLF, XLE, XLK, XLY, XLI, XLB, XLRE, XLP, XLV, XLU

Among the stocks highlighted yesterday, META stood out following its recovery of the Central Daily Level (CDL), while XOM displayed price action suggesting a healthy consolidation. Both moved as expected, with META outperforming its peers by gaining +6.7%, and XOM declining -1%.

Unlock the levels for tomorrow’s session, along with our essential MONTHLY LEVELS. These monthly benchmarks provide the critical reference for how much each security must reclaim this month to flip bearish momentum back to bullish.

Subscribe now

Tomorrow we will study price action when there is a bearish monthly MACD crossover, a signal that has preceded bear markets or major corrections:

Let’s study the key levels for this month for now:

MONTHLY LEVELS

Read more

It is worth noting that the VIX declined today even as indices closed in the red; this divergence often serves as an early warning of an imminent squeeze. In high-volatility environments, our daily levels are essential for navigating these wide weekly ranges. The VIX closed today at 30.

From the securities posted in this morning’s chat, META successfully reclaimed $529, setting the stage for a potential recovery. Looking toward tomorrow, the SPX has a gap at $6,473.8 (which should act as a magnet), and the QQQ has one at $573.8. Use the levels below to establish your bias for the final trading day of March.

The Daily Levels consistently analyzes the following securities:

• SPX & ETFs: SPX, SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

• Sectors: XLC, XLF, XLE, XLK, XLY, XLI, XLB, XLRE, XLP, XLV, XLU

If you trade using levels, this publication is for you, upgrade your subscription to paid and unlock the daily levels.

Subscribe now

DAILY LEVELS COMBINED

Read more

What a day. The market unfolded the move that has been brewing for recent sessions in a rapid fashion. We first saw the warning signs when technology began diverging from other sectors, the SPX was grinding higher while tech megacaps showed underlying weakness.

Over the past few weeks, I have occasionally shared free articles demonstrating how technical indicators validate momentum and anticipate reversals. We’ve covered NVDA, SPX, TSLA, and QQQ so far. My next free post will focus on Crypto, showing how technical analysis remains highly effective for Bitcoin (stay tuned).

Given today’s volatility, tonight’s update will break down the market move and the support/resistance levels modeled for this week. I will also conclude with a note on the macro drivers behind the selloff.

Volatility Spike

We have been tracking the VIX closely, and the series of higher lows over the last few weeks warned of an imminent spike. Today, the VIX jumped above key thresholds we analyze in the Weekly Compass, but at the same time it’s overheated already with a gap.

While the context is bearish, there are signs of short-term exhaustion given the velocity of the move:

• Bollinger Bands: The SPX breached its lower Bollinger Band on the daily timeframe today (Same for the NDX).

• Gap Magnets: Keep an eye on the gaps at $6,925 (SPX) and $25,444 (NDX); these often act as bullish magnets for a relief bounce.

• Oversold Conditions: The move was violent and fast, reaching oversold conditions on the daily Williams%R.

The “Crowded Trade” Unwind

The velocity of this drop was fueled by extreme positioning. Last week we highlighted that 70% of S&P 500 stocks were above their key moving averages on Thursday, and on Jan 9th, 90% of the stocks listed in the Dow Jones were above their 200DMA. While broad participation is generally healthy, these extremes signaled a crowded trade. When everyone is on one side of the boat, it doesn’t take much to tip it over.

Key Levels & Tickers

The mood remains bearish until proven otherwise, but we must manage risk carefully. These notes are related to some of the setups shared using the levels posted last Friday.

• TSLA: Surpassed our extension target of $421 posted in the weekly compass. This level is now a key benchmark to manage risk for shorts; some traders could use it as reference to manage stops on short positions. (And locking gains is always welcome).

• AAPL: Extended as expected and found temporary support at the annual level of $243. Don’t get greedy with shorts; if profits are not locked, $246 can serve as trailing stop reference for some traders who don’t want a higher jump to consider closing a short.

• NDX: The 100DMA is the next major support, currently at $24,979. Bears need to see a break of that line along with $24,949.2 (find it on weekly levels). Or in the case of QQQ, bears want $606.5 breached to open the door to 598.4. However, a bounce is possible here considering the 100DMA and the Bollinger breached even if the primary trend remains down.

• COST showed impressive resilience today validating the bullish thesis. Conversely, Crypto and AVGO lost their Central Weekly Levels (CWL) in the pre-market. When that happens, the rule is simple: Step aside. We do not touch long positions until the CWL is reclaimed.

• GOOG: Declining as expected, following its weekly setup and reaching the extended target of $323.5 with precision.

Conclusion:

Price action continues to move between our anticipated levels with high precision. In addition to the examples above, note today’s low for JPM at $301 (versus our $303 target) and PLTR bottoming at $166 (versus Saturday’s bearish target of $166.5). Having these levels in advance helps you anticipate potential destinations and reversal points.

When a move happens too fast at the start of the week, we often see reversals. Be mindful of a potential technical bounce; while not a guarantee, it is a high probability when monitoring the VIX and today’s overextension.

The market structure has sustained major damage. As mentioned in my previous publication, the 20-week moving average (WMA) was the likely target for this bearish move in the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), that level has now flipped from support to resistance. Any spike from here must prove its strength by recovering levels progressively.

How to validate a bounce?

For tomorrow, a potential bounce must first recover $6,819.0 on the SPX, ideally followed by $6,836.8 flipping back to support. Similarly, for QQQ, bulls need to see a first sign of a bounce consolidating $610.1, followed by a recovery of $613. These are not yet the Central Weekly levels, but rather previous supports that have flipped to resistance. (Note: The first two figures for SPX and QQQ are CDLs ;).

And the primal milestone is the recovery of the CWL.

For access to all the premium content on SmartReversals.com including the weekly levels and setups with price targets, click here.

The Macro Catalyst: It’s Not Greenland only, It’s also Japan

Is this selloff about the headlines regarding Greenland? Not necessarily. That is a very important situation, and the mechanics of this drop point to similarities with the August 2024 selloff: Japan.

Japan’s 10-year bond market recently experienced extreme volatility, a rare “six-standard-deviation move”, driven by concerns over large fiscal spending plans and persistent inflation. This has forced aggressive selling from domestic insurers and banks.

Why This Matters for the SPX (The Carry Trade Unwind)

For those who remember the 10% drop in August 2024, the mechanic is identical. For years, global investors used the “Carry Trade” borrowing Yen at near-zero costs to buy US tech stocks.

When JGB yields spike (as they are doing now), that cheap funding evaporates.

1. Yields Spike in Japan → Yen volatility increases.

2. Margin Calls Triggered → Funds are forced to sell liquid winners (US Tech) to pay back Yen loans.

3. SPX Sells Off → The “unwind” hits the US regardless of earnings.

This fundamental catalyst aligns perfectly with the technical cracks mentioned recently. Until the Japanese bond market stabilizes, the SPX remains vulnerable, and as usual, let’s focus on price action.

See you this Wednesday with the Mid-Week Update. Like for more occasional notes like this one.

Have a good night everyone.

My only communication channels with you are via email and the Substack chat, I don’t use Telegram, WhatsApp, Discord, Private Channels, or any other communication method.

The content provided on SmartReveals.com is for educational and informational purposes only. All analyses, research, commentary, and other materials are intended to help users understand financial markets, investment concepts, and company fundamentals. This content does not constitute investment or any type of advice. The support and resistance levels are modeled references to manage risk and anticipate potential reversals, each investor must assess their own risk tolerance to set their own stops.

Today’s publication presents how technical indicators serve as core tools for making informed, data-backed investment decisions. By relying on these indicators, investors and traders can bypass intuition, news, social media noise, and emotion to interpret what the market is truly signaling.

While some investors believe stock prices are driven solely by f…

Read more

This marks the end of my second end of a year publishing on Substack (also accessible via SmartReversals.com). The feedback from subscribers has been overwhelmingly positive, and I want to thank you sincerely for being part of this community.

This article is a token of gratitude for everyone; free and paid subscribers alike. It is designed to share criti…

Read more

In investing, relying on headlines or hunches is a fast track to losses. To succeed, you must replace subjective opinions with objective data. This edition focuses on the critical technical indicators that strip away the noise and reveal the true state of the market. We are moving beyond simple charts to help you understand market structure and time you…

Read more

In the world of investing, making decisions based on news, opinions or beliefs, is a recipe for disaster. Today’s publication is designed to demonstrate just how crucial it is to use technical indicators to make informed, data driven decisions rather than relying on gut feelings. This guide highlights essential indicators that every investor and trader …

Read more