As the week is about to close, let’s recall that in last Thursday’s edition I highlighted the high odds of a spike in the Volatility Index. Traders and investors must monitor the VIX; otherwise, you are taking on far higher risk than you realize. Monitoring the VIX helps time the market much more effectively. With that said, the VIX has jumped 10.2% this week, a significant move indicating that even while indices trade choppily, vulnerability to any bearish trigger is elevated.

To be clear, I was bullish in the Weekly Compass posted on March 28th (in the middle of the panic), and by the final week of April, I documented the strength of the weekly price action observed over the first three weeks of that month, forecasting bullish continuation toward 7,638. That forecast played out with precision before the choppy price action of June and July took hold once 7,620 was reached early in June 🎯. By the end of July, I anticipated the bullish cases for Gold, Bitcoin, SpaceX, TSLA, and NFLX, and in September, my bullish calls on AMD and META also delivered double-digit gains 🎯.

My cautionary tone is driven entirely by technicals. My approach is strictly neutral: I am bullish when setups dictate it, and I advise caution when conditions warrant it. True to that neutrality, the semiconductor ETF SMH reached today the anticipated bullish target of 618, while JPM exceeded our bearish target of 334 this week, currently bouncing after approaching 325, another target based on levels modeled well in advance.

Maintaining that disciplined neutrality, let’s examine the most important chart in the market that every serious trader and investor must monitor nowadays.

Today’s Agenda

• The Most Important Chart of the Week

• Watchlist Tracker

• Daily plan for SPX, ES=F

• Daily and Weekly Levels Combined for SPX, ES=F, MU, NVDA, AMD, AVGO

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The Most Important Chart of the Week

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U.S. stock indexes finished mixed today, marking the close of both the month and the third quarter. Growth and technology stocks carried the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) into positive territory with a 0.2% gain. However, the S&P 500 (SPX) slipped 0.25%, and the Dow Jones (DJI) dropped 0.9% (DIA exceeded the bearish target of 511).

Early-day optimism made the SPX reach the anticipated daily resistance of 7,720 and reversed rapidly towards 7,649, another level modeled yesterday for today’s session showing a how institutional algorithms react to these modeled levels with precision. Long-dated bond yields continued to weigh down the broader market, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumping to a new multidecade high of 5.30%.

The market wrestled with contradictory economic signals:

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, came in lower than expected rising 0.3% for the month and 3.4% year-over-year (vs. 3.7% expected). Core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% for the month and 3.0% year-over-year. However, the second-quarter real GDP was revised upward to a 2.2% annualized growth rate, proving the U.S. economy remains resilient and offsetting the cooler inflation data.

As mentioned today is the end of the month and quarter, and many disciplined investors and traders are looking forward to the support and resistance levels for October, and that is the focus of today’s edition, bringing the essential central monthly level (CML) that sets momentum for a longer term structure, this level comes for our regular watchlist in this post, and the founding members site (access here) has the levels updated for the expanded watch as well.

Today’s Agenda

• Monthly Levels for October

• Watchlist Tracker and setups analysis for SPX, QQQ, TSLA, AMZN, SPCX, GOOG

• Micron Earnings Report Breakdown

• Multi-timeframe levels combined for SPX, ES=F, MU, NVDA, AVGO, AMD

• Daily plan for SPX, ES=F

Let’s begin.

MONTHLY LEVELS FOR OCTOBER

Securities marked in red indicate they have lost the crucial central monthly level, making volatility likely, especially if the ticker is close to its all-time highs, such as the Dow Jones or DIA and IWM (both anticipated as bearish setups). At the same time, let's remember that bounces occur from oversold conditions. Some tickers are showing overextended conditions and could trigger corrective moves similar to those anticipated and printed by SPCX, BTC, TSLA, NFLX, and GLD in August, or META, AAPL, and AMD in September. Let's examine the analysis first:

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The stock market struggled to find footing today as a surge in U.S. Treasury yields continued to pressure risk assets. Both long- and short-term government bond yields pushed to levels not seen in decades, capping any meaningful rebounds in equities. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.29%, marking its highest peak since 2007, while the 30-year yield surged to 5.62%, its highest mark since 2002.

Adding to the bearish sentiment was a duo of weak economic reports. Data from The Conference Board revealed that U.S. consumer confidence has slumped to its lowest level since 2014, driven by anxieties over the cost of living and the labor market. This was followed by the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which showed U.S. job openings fell to 7.09 million in August. Missing economists’ forecasts, this indicates a cooling job market ahead of Friday’s highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls report.

We studied during the weekend the structural cracks in the SPX, yesterday the breach of the Central Weekly Level suggested negative continuation, and for today, the anticipated Central Daily Level (CDL) at 7,691 (the demarcation point for bullish or bearish momentum for the day) was breached during the first minutes of the market open.

Selling pressure pushed the index down to our anticipated daily support level at 7,658, where it found stability, validating how institutional algorithms react to these modeled levels updated every day for the next session. The gap at 7,657 from last week was filled as anticipated, all the gains from Monday, September 21st, have been wiped out. As I highlighted that Monday afternoon, chasing the rally carried significant risks and that gap was going to be filled.

Today’s Agenda

• Daily and Weekly Levels Combined for SPX, ES=F, NVDA, AMD, AVGO, and MU

• Daily plan for SPX, ES=F

• Watchlist Tracker - Zoom in to GOOG, TSLA, SPCX, and AMZN

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Daily and Weekly Levels Combined for SPX, ES=F, NVDA, AMD, AVGO, and MU

Let’s begin with Micron (MU) the company will be posting earnings tomorrow after the market close, the implied volatility for the stock is an expected price move of roughly 7.7% to 8.1%:

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The central daily level for today (anticipated since Friday; our key line indicating bullish or bearish momentum) was 7,729. Today, the price opened below this level, drifting down toward 7,706 before hitting 7,670, the ultimate low of the day and a level anticipated on Friday if the CDL was lost.

With today’s action, the SPX has lost also its Central Weekly Level (CWL). The unfilled gap at 7,651 continues to act as a magnet, and any bullish move before that space is filled is very likely to face selling pressure.

Price action suggested the possibility of a green beginning of the week, but two events anticipated the expected weakness: 1) The 10 year treasury yield jumped to 5.23%, touching its highest level since 2007. Higher yields act as a significant drag on equities because they increase borrowing costs and provide investors with a highly competitive, lower-risk alternative to stocks. 2) Uncertainty spiked again regarding the safety of oil tankers navigating the conflict-impacted Strait of Hormuz.

Let’s study the key levels for tomorrow for the SPX, ES=F, and NVDA, since it moved in a bullish fashion based on a buyback program announcement, the daily formation still suggests caution considering the bands and price action. The levels to watch are below.

Today’s Agenda

• Watchlist Tracker

• Daily plan for SPX, ES=F.

• Daily and Weekly Levels Combined for SPX, ES=F, NVDA, MU, AVGO, AMD.

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Watchlist Tracker

Let’s begin with the watchlist tracker today, with key levels for NVDA, the risk that NDX adds today, the anticipated bearish moves for JPM and IWM, and what to consider for TSLA, AMZN, and SMH as setups to watch this week.

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The stock market continues through a choppy season, where overnight moves and gaps have become the new normal. However, the current price action regime can be navigated those gaps in our favor, as we have done for TSLA, NFLX, GOOG, META, AVGO, and the SPX itself; as gaps typically trigger counter-moves.

Since Monday, the gap at 7,651 has been on our radar for the SPX. Tuesday’s indecision added warning signs, and Wednesday’s retrace, confirmed by the loss of the anticipated daily level at 7,767, triggered a bearish move that followed through during the Wednesday-Thursday overnight session. Today, the price opened with a new gap, filled via a morning bounce, and later consolidated into the afternoon.

The net daily move was zero for the SPX, while the VIX jumped 3.2%. When this happens, it is worth zooming out to view the current market structure from a broader perspective. Look at the chart below, which should be considered by both traders and long-term investors.

With midterm elections potentially brewing a significant move, the chart speaks for itself: it has zero trendlines, it highligs only specific technical events that have historically preceded massive moves over the past few years.

Today’s Agenda

• The most important chart of the week

• Daily plan for SPX, ES=F.

• Daily and Weekly Levels Combined for SPX, ES=F, META, GOOG, AMZN, AAPL, NVDA, TSLA, MSFT.

• Watchlist Tracker

Subscribe and unlock all the content. For over two years, the levels provided by this publication have consistently anticipated the exact zones where institutional algorithms react. That is precisely why they work so well for setting targets and invalidation levels.

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Let’s Begin.

The Definitive Chart to Watch This Week:

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As mentioned yesterday, the SPX moved too far too fast level-wise, making today’s muted session consistent with yesterday’s cautionary note. The VIX sealed its unfinished business at 14.5, and the percentage of SPX stocks trading above their 200-day moving average declined to 51%.

This week, I am closely tracking AAPL in my daily note because it may be showing signs of exhaustion (mentioned last Saturday). Today’s shooting star candle is a move to watch, not just for the stock itself, but for the broader market. The central daily levels combined with the weekly levels are posted below, alongside the levels for NVDA, META, AMZN, GOOG, and TSLA.

Other relevant moves worth watching include:

• WMT: Gaining 2.5% during its expected gap-fill process.

• AMD: Continuing to build momentum by flipping our bullish target of 612.9 from resistance into support.

• META: Printing a bearish shooting star alongside AAPL, signaling potential exhaustion after yesterday’s rally (META’s daily levels are analyzed below as well).

• AMZN: Struggling to conquer its 50 and 20 day moving averages.

• DIA & MSFT: The Dow Jones ETF (DIA) is testing its Central Weekly Level, potentially triggering the bearish move anticipated in the Weekly Compass, with MSFT showing a similar setup.

Let’s dive deep into tomorrow’s daily plan, combined levels, and the watchlist tracker, where AMD leads the regular watchlist as the frontrunner, while XOM acts as the laggard with a well-anticipated bearish move mapped out in the Weekly Compass.

Today’s Agenda

• Daily plan for SPX, ES=F.

• Daily and Weekly Levels Combined for SPX, ES=F, NVDA, META, GOOG, AMZN, AAPL, TSLA

• Watchlist Tracker

Let’s begin.

Daily plan for SPX, ES=F

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Today’s move in the SPX validated the bullish price action formed last week after bouncing from 7,513 as our extended bearish target. The price consolidated with conviction above the modeled central level of 7,605 that validates momentum (bullish above, bearish below). Today we’ll examine the context, since the price reached our extended bullish target in a single day while the SPX gained 1.5% and the VIX stayed neutral.

In my latest publication, I highlighted how valid it was to stay bullish with NDX/QQQ, GOOG, Bitcoin/IBIT, Ethereum/ETHA, and other securities. The rally today validates the bullish considerations posted.

I also highlighted high probability bullish setups with high probability of reaching their targets. Among them, I posted NVDA targeting 227 (+2.3%), which was reached today with accuracy 🎯; AMD targeting 586 and 612, with price reaching the second target with precision (+9.5% 🎯); TSLA at 374 (+2.6%), also reached today 🎯; and NFLX targeting $74.3, a level neared today.

In case you missed it, the Weekly Compass posted on Saturday is here:

Today I cover the considerations for today’s rally and the rapid advance toward bullish targets in a single session, on the very first trading day of the week. Get access to this analysis and unlock all premium content by subscribing to our paid plan.

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Today’s Agenda

• Post-Rally Watchouts: Monitoring the Current SPX Price Structure

• Daily plan for SPX, ES=F.

• Daily and Weekly Levels Combined for SPX, ES=F, NVDA, META, GOOG, AMZN, AAPL, and TSLA

• Watchlist Tracker

Let’s begin.

Monitoring the Current SPX Price Structure

There are two ways to analyze today’s price action: the first considers only the surface price, while the second seeks underlying conditions that demand careful watching and correct risk management using momentum levels.

First view:

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Yesterday, we studied the probabilities for a bounce today as SPY, DIA, and IWM all reached their anticipated bearish targets: DIA: Reached 514.7 🎯 (a -2.1% move versus Friday’s close); SPY: Reached 750.5 🎯 (a -1.8% move); IWM: Reached 281.8 🎯 (a -2.5% move).

Setting targets based on modeled levels where institutional algorithms react helps improve performance and lock in profits, especially when trading with options or leveraged instruments. After reaching those bearish targets modeled last Friday for this week, I highlighted the likelihood of a bounce today, noting that “SPY: oversold conditions open up probabilities for a bounce” and “DIA: Half of the candle is below the Bollinger band, this oversold condition and the reversal in the afternoon suggest a bounce is likely.”

As I do daily, I provided exact levels for ES=F and SPX to monitor early signals of a momentum shift. ES=F recovered 7,630.9 during the night, SPX opened above 7,659, the rest is history.

Over the past two weeks, my daily notes have included observations to guide you on how to use high-probability setups and support and resistance levels. Yesterday’s publication condenses all those key learnings. Get access here:

When you subscribe to the paid plan, you receive three core publications every week covering our watchlist of indices, ETFs, megacaps, and futures. In addition, you receive a daily note with the levels for the SPX and ES=F. You can also submit your own stocks on Saturdays so their weekly levels are modeled for the week ahead and published on Sunday evening, allowing you to always plan your moves well in advance of the next session.

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Today’s Agenda

• The most important chart of the week

• Daily plan for SPX, ES=F, MU, AMD, NVDA, AVGO

• Combined Levels

• Watchlist Tracker

Let’s begin.

The Most Important Chart of the Week

If this formation persists by tomorrow's close, the SPX may have set a local bottom, and bullish continuation could follow. See the lines marking previous occurrences and the subsequent considerations below:

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Momentum is bearish. The gap left behind on August 8th at 7,610 was finally closed yesterday, and price action continued its downward trend. The question today is: Will the Nasdaq100 follow?

28,842K is a bearish magnet and 29,2K is a bullish one, The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kicked off its September policy meeting today. Interest rate expectations consider a 92% probability of a quarter-point rate hike and it will be defined tomorrow, remember that the speech is as important as the rate decision itself. Price action suggests bearish continuation but the clash with the lower Bollinger band may become a support zone. The main level to watch is cited below.

Yesterday, I posted the central daily levels for four semiconductor giants: MU, NVDA, AMD, and AVGO. Because these stocks have suffered high volatility, their weekly levels are wide, making daily levels useful as intermediate lines to assess potential reversals. AMD opened today above 490.7, suggesting a pause in the bearish move; MU held its CDL of 919.6; NVDA held 210; and AVGO was the only one losing 346.3, hence the move toward the 336 monthly level.

Will semiconductors bounce and fuel the NDX? Let’s assess the daily levels for tomorrow, along with the ones for the SPX and ES=F.

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Today’s Agenda

• Daily Plan for SPX, ES=F

• Combined Levels for Tomorrow: , SPX, ES=F, NVDA, AVGO, AMD and MU

• Watchlist Tracker

Let’s begin.

Daily Plan for SPX & ES=F: FED Decision Imminent and Key NDX Level

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The probabilities for a rate hike in the next FOMC meeting fell to 50% today, from 63% yesterday, a major change that fueled the stock market.

On the macro site, the ADP private sector payrolls report showed an increase of 38,000 jobs in August, coming in below estimates and providing further evidence of a cooling labor market, a factor that also favors continuation in interest rates instead of a rate hike.

With that said, the rally left a new gap open for the SPX at 7,681 and for the Dow Jones at 53,227; bad news became good news and the coming price action has a new magnet below that we have studied is extremely likely to be filled.

Yesterday, 7,660 was set as the central daily level for the ES=F today, meaning that the price was bullish above it, and bearish below it, the number was the same for the SPX. The bullish move came with conviction recovering the Central Weekly Level (CWL), suggesting a flip in momentum and given the gap, likely continuation of choppy price action.

Let’s don’t fight price action, but let’s be aware of the implied risk of having two magnets below the current move; these magnets belong to the SP500 and the Dow Jones, we’re not talking about PLTR, MU, SNDK, or a micro-cap. For that reason risk awareness is prudent.

From our watchlist, the week is about to end with several moves that were anticipated, like the bullish resolution for TSLA, SPCX, META, IBIT, AAPL, NFLX, SLV, and GLD. I’d like to make a special mention for WMT gaining +5%.

Having a watchlist of megacaps and high volume ETFs with selected setups for the week helps long-term investors and traders outperform the market. I’ve been bullish on the tickers mentioned, cautious on the indices, and bearish on specific names, while keeping others on watch for a breakout.

Today’s agenda

• The Most Important Chart Today

• Daily Plan for SPX and ES=F

• Combined levels (including daily levels) for SPX, ES=F, AMZN, TSLA, MSFT, AAPL, NVDA, GOOG, and META.

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The Most Important Chart: Key Resistance Tested

Bullish continuation depends on holding the central daily levels below, but also on breaking through this resistance:

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The SPX is down -1% so far this week, losing its central weekly level of 7,707.1 as anticipated on Saturday and breaching the bearish target of 7,642. The index is currently testing the critical 7,638 zone; if it isn’t reclaimed quickly, the downward move could gain momentum. Meanwhile, the VIX, which was hovering at year-to-date lows and primed for a bounce, has rallied +13% this week alone.

Once the ES=F lost the anticipated Central Daily level of 7,700 overnight, the bearish continuation was triggered to start the month. The E-mini futures found temporary morning support at 7,651 before breaking lower to test the final line of daily defense at 7,627. All of these levels were modeled yesterday in advance, and the price action confirms how institutional algorithms react to them. Once futures broke their CDL, the anticipated SPX daily support levels came into play during market hours: 7,668 and 7,635 framed price action from the open until 2 PM, when that final daily support of 7,635 broke down and flipped to resistance.

Much like the SPX, the Weekly Compass pointed to a high-probability move for the IWM. While we initially looked for a visit toward 290.6 (-1.1%), today’s price action pushed even lower, nearing 289 for a -1.7% weekly decline so far.

The Weekly Compass is available here for anyone who hasn’t read it yet:

This is a week where the Magnificent Seven could play a reversal role in a weak market. On Saturday, we highlighted mixed setups across the group (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOG, AMZN, META, TSLA). We are already seeing significant divergence among them, including yesterday’s +5.5% surge in TSLA (which consolidated today), a +2.6% rally in AAPL today, and resilience from META as it continues to hold its demand zone bouncing from there one more time.

My bearish thesis on MSFT continues to play out with a -2.4% move, while GOOG and AMZN have broken below key weekly levels, shifting constructive structures into potential bearish continuations. That said, both could find a floor at any point: GOOG printed a doji at weekly support today, and AMZN did the same right at its 50-day moving average.

The SPX is actively working toward a gap-fill, while the remaining Magnificent Seven names could bounce at any moment, just as TSLA and AAPL did this week.

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Today’s Agenda:

• Daily Plan for SPX and ES=F

• Daily Plan for AAPL, TSLA, GOOG, AMZN, and META

• Combined Levels for SPX, ES=F, and all of the Magnificent Seven

Daily Plan SPX and ES=F

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NVDA rallied strongly. The earnings report beat expectations and pushed the price up +8.7%, driven by a morning move that left a consolidation/indecision for the afternoon. Interestingly, MU closed slightly in the red at -0.3% and AMD at -0.9%, failing to participate in the rally, while AVGO and TXN did so with +4.4% and +1.8% respectively.

The SPX gained traction, recovering its central weekly level while facing resistance at the monthly level of 7,729 (proving how these pre-modeled levels can contain moves when institutional algorithms react to them). The SPX managed to fill the gap opened at the bell, so today’s move can be considered clean from a price action perspective. The only risk technical criteria to watch are the resistance at the mentioned monthly level and breadth (stock participation) as described below.

Tomorrow, the Fed Chair speaks in Jackson Hole. Many people are expecting a hawkish tone and a subsequent selloff in the market. Macro indicators do not contradict that thesis, considering sticky and elevated PCE inflation, strong domestic demand and consumer spending, robust business investment, low unemployment and labor market resilience, and very importantly, geopolitical supply shocks.

Those aspects are detailed below for paid members, along with the most important chart of the week.

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Macro indicators suggest a hawkish tone is possible tomorrow, and as mentioned, price action looks okay, no gaps, just indecision in the afternoon. However, the second technical aspect to watch, stock participation brings a key element to consider ahead of Jackson Hole: technology was the only sector moving up today. The rally was driven by NVDA (followed by CRM and the software industry), but megacaps like AMZN, GOOG, and META stayed in the red, along with AMD and MU as mentioned above.

SPX: Daily Gains per Sector:

Today’s Agenda:

• The most important chart to watch today

• Macro considerations

• Daily Plan for the SPX and ES=F

• Combined levels for SPX, ES=F, NVDA, MU, AMD, AVGO, and SMH

The Most Important Chart Today

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NVDA moved within the range of daily levels posted yesterday, with 210 serving as the Central Daily Level and 213 as the next level if the price stayed above it. There is still work to do to recover the central weekly level and completely flip momentum. However, a positive for the bulls, though it does not guarantee a bullish reaction to the earnings report is that the gaps analyzed in the Weekly Compass at 213 and 208.7 were cleared yesterday with the bearish move, leaving a clean pathway in case of a bullish reaction to tomorrow’s earnings report.

MU also moved constructively. Although still below the central weekly level, it managed to trade between the levels posted yesterday: 911.5 and 935.

Daily and longer-timeframe levels help anticipate the zones where institutional algorithms are likely to react, and today was no different.

When analyzing the SPX, the central daily level (CDL) for today posted yesterday was 7,653, with resistance layers above at 7,669.3 and 7,685.9. With work still required to recover the key weekly level modeled since Friday and posted below, the SPX remains muted this week. Such narrowing price ranges usually precede big moves, and this behavior could continue tomorrow.

The charts present a clear reference of how institutional algorithms react to these levels modeled in advance.

Unlock the daily plan for tomorrow including the updated set of levels by upgrading to the paid plan.

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Daily Plan for Wednesday: SPX, ES=F and Semiconductors

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Daily Moves:

The SPX opened below the CDL of 7,677, the levels below posted this morning were 7,657 and 7,640, both framing the price action for the day.

Daily plan for Aug 25th

The daily levels for the SPX, ES=F, and the zoom in to semiconductors covering MU, NVDA, AVGO, and AMD is here:

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The SPX did open below the central daily level (CDL) that sets momentum. When the price stays below it, the structure favors the bearish thesis, and the opening far below it validated the technical setup. Next, the price lost 7,690 and attempted to fill the daily gap, but momentum vanished quickly, flipping the 7,690 defense level into resistance.

Bearish momentum continued as the price moved to 7,673, another level anticipated yesterday for today’s session. It held as support until it was broken at noon. Afterward, the price closed below 7,646, positioning itself to target 7,610 as price action suggests. All these levels were anticipated yesterday when the market closed.

A similar case happened with the DIA. The price action lost not only 534, but 533 and 531 as well. Over the weekend, I highlighted the DIA as a bearish setup with a high probability of completion. The ETF, mirroring the Dow Jones, has indeed fallen 1.7% this week, exceeding the bearish weekly target of 528.

Because the market is printing significant moves overnight, the central daily level (CDL) for the E-mini S&P futures is now part of this publication along with all its layers, the anticipated level of 7,730 was lost overnight, adding further confirmation for a bearish session today. The price fell, breaking through key levels until finding support at the confluence zone of 7,664 and 7,658.

These levels are highlighted because they were provided in advance of today’s session, proving to be essential zones where institutional algorithms are likely to react. Having them ahead of time allows you to monitor the step-by-step levels down or up to validate momentum, or to spot areas where the price is likely to reverse, always supported by technical analysis that frames the directional expectation. Unlock this tool and all the content at SmartReversals.com:

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Last weekend in the Weekly Compass, I anticipated the likelihood of a bearish reversal for the SPX, providing weekly levels to map price action across wider ranges. The price action indeed lost 7,773, and the SPX is currently nearing 7,630, completing a 1.86% weekly move so far.

Today’s Agenda:

• Let’s study the levels for tomorrow and analyze the potential downside targets for both the SPX and the ES=F.

• Today’s content also includes the combined weekly and daily levels for QQQ, SMH, MU, NVDA, AMD, AVGO, and TSM. As anticipated in the Weekly Compass, these semiconductor giants are playing a crucial role this week.

Let’s begin.

SPX and ES=F: Price Action is Aiming at these Targets:

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Following yesterday’s decline in the SPX and NDX, I studied the semiconductor rally, highlighting the gaps on SMH, MU, and bearish setups for NVDA and TSM. As it has happened before, those gaps were filled rapidly during today’s session.

Levels as Confirmations

Given the bearish reversal risk described yesterday, I posted the daily levels for MU, NVDA, AMD, AVGO, TSM, and SMH, alongside our usual daily levels for SPX and ES=F.

When MU opened below the anticipated central daily level (CDL) of 1,014, the downside elevator was activated, sliding until the central weekly level of 933 acted as support. A similar move played out when NVDA lost its central daily level of 225 and AMD lost its CDL of 509, with these two stocks losing their crucial central weekly levels (details below).

Daily levels function as early warnings. In addition of losing the central daily levels, the anticipated daily supports at 992 (for MU) and 501 (for AMD) were lost as well. Using those levels to set protection for long positions help to protect capital, in this case against a -7% total daily selloff in MU and a -4.3% drop in AMD.

Similar case played out on the SPX. The anticipated central daily level published yesterday was 7,760, with the next line of defense at 7,729. Price action faced rejection near the 7,714 level at the open, leading to a choppy session that closed near 7,683.

The Edge of Anticipation

Technical analysis helps us anticipate direction, whether through momentum or reversals. Support and resistance levels modeled in advance, such as the central daily thresholds acting as strict above/below directional guides, provide a clear structural roadmap.

Because these daily levels are modeled one day ahead of the session, traders gain a key edge to plan their moves without the stress of the morning session. This daily analysis complements our three core weekly publications released on Wednesdays, Fridays, and Saturdays. Subscribe!

When you subscribe to the paid plan, you receive the following perks:

• Full access to our market intelligence library

• Downloadable copies of my two e-books on technical analysis (basic and advanced)

• Custom modeling of support and resistance levels for your watchlist—simply submit it every Saturday in the chat and receive your levels on Sunday

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Today, I cover the the daily plan for the SPX and ES=F including their daily levels for August 19th, also adding MU, AMD, NVDA, AVGO, TSM, SMH, and SPCX.

Tomorrow is FED day, the FOMC minutes will be released at 2PM New York time, volatility is likely, this week alone the VIX has jumped +11%, and the Dow Jones is filling its gap, as anticipated.

Daily Plan for August 19th

SPX, Futures, SPCX, and Semiconductors - daily levels:

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Despite the broader market decline, chipmakers outperformed. Surging Q2 revenue reports from Anthropic signaled robust artificial intelligence spending, lifting shares of Micron Technology MU over 4% and SNDK up nearly 9%.

Who is Telling the truth?

The SPX and the Dow Jones have technical conditions analyzed during the weekend that suggested a pullback, the VIX on the other hand was nearing to a support zone, and semiconductors presented constructive setups, in fact, SMH was highlighted as a high probability setup aiming at $600.8 (+2.2%) as the primary target, $600 was reached today.

There is an important aspect to consider in the Semiconductors move that will be described below in the daily plan for Tuesday, Aug 18th.

Get the daily levels for SPX, ES=F, SMH, NVDA, MU, AMD, TSM, AVGO, and SPCX (among others, and it continues gaining momentum as the technical setup suggests).

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SPX and ES=F Daily Plan: Beware of This Semiconductor Condition

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Major U.S. stock indexes closed slightly lower for a second consecutive day, pulling back from the all-time records set last week. Investor caution drove the session as markets awaited the key July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday 8:30AM EST, while continuing to digest ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, which as mentioned last Saturday, that’s the constant uncertain element in this market.

Hopes for a diplomatic resolution in Iran faded, raising concerns about international shipping lines and the potential impact of sustained energy costs on future inflation figures. Highlighting the reality of the crisis, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) officially raised its 2026 global oil price forecast to $87/bbl specifically due to prolonged shipping disruptions in the Strait.

Interestingly, the VIX closed in the red (-1.2%), something that we will consider below.

In the corporate side, Alphabet (GOOG) faced notable selling pressure, closing 3.6% lower. The central daily level shared yesterday worked as an initial alert of the bearish move, 354 was lost when the market opened, and for more risk tolerance, the first support level of 352 was breached with an impulsive move during the first fifteen minutes of the session, these pre-calculated levels posted last night for GOOG, acted as early warnings. Same case for SPCX (SpaceX) that is consolidating following an expected rally, the loss today of 136 as central daily level triggered the move toward 132 which was the anticipated first support level for the day and where the price closed today.

For the SPX, The session anticipated a narrow range based on the levels posted yesterday when the market closed, the Central Daily Level of 7,756 as the bullish-above/bearish-below marker flipped to resistance around 11AM following indecisive price action, the second support level at 7726 acted as the final structural floor for the day. The ES=F continue facing rejection at the monthly level of 7,799 for 6th day in a row, setting that line as a key threshold for bulls and bears.

Looking Ahead: July CPI Catalyst

All eyes are on the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow morning. It represents the single most crucial macro catalyst of the week, arriving on the heels of a cooling labor market and mixed signals regarding the Federal Reserve’s September policy action.

Economists project headline annual inflation will decelerate slightly to 3.4% (down from 3.5% in June). If the data satisfies or prints cooler than consensus, equities could see a bullish move. A hotter-than-expected print will likely spark a sell-off.

Below are the daily levels for tomorrow for the SPX, ES=F, SPCX, and the Magnificent Seven (TSLA, AMZN, NVDA, GOOG, AAPL, MSFT, META).

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SPX and ES=F: Daily Plan

During earnings season we studied the implied moves for the companies reporting earnings, the actual moves were very consistent to those expectations, let’s begin with implied moves for the index and the magnificent seven, see below that volatility is likely, and consistent with the compression in price action that we have seen during this week:

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Upcoming Economic Updates:

Over the weekend, the Weekly Compass highlighted underlying caution in several technology names, including select “Magnificent Seven” stocks and semiconductors. For instance, in the Setups Blueprint, AMD appeared as bearish and fell -2.9% today. Conversely, SpaceX (SPCX) was highlighted as bullish and jumped 4% today, aligning well with Saturday’s technical analysis. Walmart (WMT) and gold (GLD) were expected to move in the green zone, and they began the week constructive, matching expectations. LLY was bullish in the Blueprint, keep an eye on that one using the levels since the spike looks constructive.

As we are early in the week, the Weekly Compass continues to serve as our primary navigational guide, these daily updates provide specific price daily levels to watch: Tesla (TSLA) is trading bullishly as expected, today’s shooting star Microsoft (MSFT) is consistent with a potential consolidation, the indecisive price action on Google (GOOG) matches with the thesis noted in the Compass, let’s study all the magnificent seven, including the bearish move for Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA).

The Weekly Compass is here:

Navigating Volatility: Key Levels as the VIX Jumps 4%

Reviewing today’s key levels, the anticipated central daily level for the S&P 500 (SPX) was 7,746, with expected resistance at 7,774. True to form, the high of the day reached 7,773.8 before reversing. As mentioned previously, these levels serve as effective tools for tracking where institutional algorithms can react. For the E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES=F), the anticipated central daily level was 7,763, with resistance pegged at a monthly and daily confluence zone of 7,799 to 7,800. The session high hit that zone before reversing at 7,798.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, let’s assess the daily levels for both the SPX and ES=F plus the entire Magnificent Seven (AAPL, GOOG, TSLA, NVDA, MSFT, META, and AMZN) alongside SpaceX (SPCX). Because each name presents distinct technical conditions, their collective movement will dictate the next broader market leg. The tracking for SpaceX (SPCX) follows the anticipated bullish call since last week

Let’s map out the precise bullish-above and bearish-below thresholds for tomorrow, combining them with weekly levels to anticipate key confluence zones. Upgrade to the paid plan to unlock this analysis and all exclusive content at SmartReversals.com.

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SPX and E-mini Futures (ES=F), Daily Plan:

Before covering all the Magnificent Seven and SpaceX, let us analyze the levels for these two:

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The SPX traded in a narrow range, respecting the daily levels shared yesterday. The 7,745 central daily level acted as anticipated resistance signaling weakness since yesterday. From there, the index moved sideways down to the first daily support at 7,697.

Energy prices surged today since markets faced a renewed wave of caution as geopolitical negotiations hit temporary stops (as anticipated during the weekend, Geopolitics is the constant question mark in the market today). On the other hand, economic data showed this morning a slight rise in weekly U.S. unemployment claims, tomorrow the July employment report will be released early in the morning.

Opening reversals remained a theme today. MU recovered from an initial -4% premarket drop to close down -1.3%, offering another good example of a squeeze from oversold levels at the opening. This pattern aligns with the examples posted in yesterday’s educational piece on combining Bollinger Bands with S/R timeframes for paid subscribers.

Similar bounces occurred in SMH and AMD. However, these semiconductor names still have work to do to reclaim key moving averages on the daily and weekly charts, not to mention key monthly levels for MU and AMD.

From the stocks we’re monitoring closely this week:

• UBER: Acted constructively, reclaiming its central weekly level (CWL) at 69 and closing right at the central monthly level, with a favorable weekly setup as of now.

• SHOP: Danced around its central daily level of 146 while a major gap below leaves room for consolidation within a broader bullish context.

• NVDA: Showed indecision, facing rejection at the daily resistance of 222 and retracing to the 219 central daily level (both anticipated last night). It is set to open under pressure tomorrow below the updated bullish above / bearish below central daily level (updated below).

• MU: Attempted to recover its central daily level of 901 after bouncing off 826, both precalculated levels shared yesterday. The price remains under pressure below the central monthly level and must hold above 873.9 tomorrow to maintain a constructive outlook.

Today’s Agenda:

1. Let’s examine the most important chart of the moment to evaluate how the week is looking.

2. Daily plan and levels for the SPX

3. The daily levels below also cover critical semiconductor names (MU, NVDA, AVGO, TSM, and SMH) essential for the broader market rally, alongside megacaps that reported earnings this week: AMD, LLY, MU, SHOP, MELI, UBER, APP, and SPCX, which is looking constructive relative to its levels considering today’s +6% bounce.

Let’s begin.

The Most Important Chart of the Week:

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