Following yesterday’s decline in the SPX and NDX, I studied the semiconductor rally, highlighting the gaps on SMH, MU, and bearish setups for NVDA and TSM. As it has happened before, those gaps were filled rapidly during today’s session.

Levels as Confirmations

Given the bearish reversal risk described yesterday, I posted the daily levels for MU, NVDA, AMD, AVGO, TSM, and SMH, alongside our usual daily levels for SPX and ES=F.

When MU opened below the anticipated central daily level (CDL) of 1,014, the downside elevator was activated, sliding until the central weekly level of 933 acted as support. A similar move played out when NVDA lost its central daily level of 225 and AMD lost its CDL of 509, with these two stocks losing their crucial central weekly levels (details below).

Daily levels function as early warnings. In addition of losing the central daily levels, the anticipated daily supports at 992 (for MU) and 501 (for AMD) were lost as well. Using those levels to set protection for long positions help to protect capital, in this case against a -7% total daily selloff in MU and a -4.3% drop in AMD.

Similar case played out on the SPX. The anticipated central daily level published yesterday was 7,760, with the next line of defense at 7,729. Price action faced rejection near the 7,714 level at the open, leading to a choppy session that closed near 7,683.

The Edge of Anticipation

Technical analysis helps us anticipate direction, whether through momentum or reversals. Support and resistance levels modeled in advance, such as the central daily thresholds acting as strict above/below directional guides, provide a clear structural roadmap.

Because these daily levels are modeled one day ahead of the session, traders gain a key edge to plan their moves without the stress of the morning session. This daily analysis complements our three core weekly publications released on Wednesdays, Fridays, and Saturdays. Subscribe!

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Today, I cover the the daily plan for the SPX and ES=F including their daily levels for August 19th, also adding MU, AMD, NVDA, AVGO, TSM, SMH, and SPCX.

Tomorrow is FED day, the FOMC minutes will be released at 2PM New York time, volatility is likely, this week alone the VIX has jumped +11%, and the Dow Jones is filling its gap, as anticipated.

Daily Plan for August 19th

SPX, Futures, SPCX, and Semiconductors - daily levels:

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Despite the broader market decline, chipmakers outperformed. Surging Q2 revenue reports from Anthropic signaled robust artificial intelligence spending, lifting shares of Micron Technology MU over 4% and SNDK up nearly 9%.

Who is Telling the truth?

The SPX and the Dow Jones have technical conditions analyzed during the weekend that suggested a pullback, the VIX on the other hand was nearing to a support zone, and semiconductors presented constructive setups, in fact, SMH was highlighted as a high probability setup aiming at $600.8 (+2.2%) as the primary target, $600 was reached today.

There is an important aspect to consider in the Semiconductors move that will be described below in the daily plan for Tuesday, Aug 18th.

Get the daily levels for SPX, ES=F, SMH, NVDA, MU, AMD, TSM, AVGO, and SPCX (among others, and it continues gaining momentum as the technical setup suggests).

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SPX and ES=F Daily Plan: Beware of This Semiconductor Condition

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Major U.S. stock indexes closed slightly lower for a second consecutive day, pulling back from the all-time records set last week. Investor caution drove the session as markets awaited the key July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday 8:30AM EST, while continuing to digest ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, which as mentioned last Saturday, that’s the constant uncertain element in this market.

Hopes for a diplomatic resolution in Iran faded, raising concerns about international shipping lines and the potential impact of sustained energy costs on future inflation figures. Highlighting the reality of the crisis, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) officially raised its 2026 global oil price forecast to $87/bbl specifically due to prolonged shipping disruptions in the Strait.

Interestingly, the VIX closed in the red (-1.2%), something that we will consider below.

In the corporate side, Alphabet (GOOG) faced notable selling pressure, closing 3.6% lower. The central daily level shared yesterday worked as an initial alert of the bearish move, 354 was lost when the market opened, and for more risk tolerance, the first support level of 352 was breached with an impulsive move during the first fifteen minutes of the session, these pre-calculated levels posted last night for GOOG, acted as early warnings. Same case for SPCX (SpaceX) that is consolidating following an expected rally, the loss today of 136 as central daily level triggered the move toward 132 which was the anticipated first support level for the day and where the price closed today.

For the SPX, The session anticipated a narrow range based on the levels posted yesterday when the market closed, the Central Daily Level of 7,756 as the bullish-above/bearish-below marker flipped to resistance around 11AM following indecisive price action, the second support level at 7726 acted as the final structural floor for the day. The ES=F continue facing rejection at the monthly level of 7,799 for 6th day in a row, setting that line as a key threshold for bulls and bears.

Looking Ahead: July CPI Catalyst

All eyes are on the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow morning. It represents the single most crucial macro catalyst of the week, arriving on the heels of a cooling labor market and mixed signals regarding the Federal Reserve’s September policy action.

Economists project headline annual inflation will decelerate slightly to 3.4% (down from 3.5% in June). If the data satisfies or prints cooler than consensus, equities could see a bullish move. A hotter-than-expected print will likely spark a sell-off.

Below are the daily levels for tomorrow for the SPX, ES=F, SPCX, and the Magnificent Seven (TSLA, AMZN, NVDA, GOOG, AAPL, MSFT, META).

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SPX and ES=F: Daily Plan

During earnings season we studied the implied moves for the companies reporting earnings, the actual moves were very consistent to those expectations, let’s begin with implied moves for the index and the magnificent seven, see below that volatility is likely, and consistent with the compression in price action that we have seen during this week:

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Upcoming Economic Updates:

Over the weekend, the Weekly Compass highlighted underlying caution in several technology names, including select “Magnificent Seven” stocks and semiconductors. For instance, in the Setups Blueprint, AMD appeared as bearish and fell -2.9% today. Conversely, SpaceX (SPCX) was highlighted as bullish and jumped 4% today, aligning well with Saturday’s technical analysis. Walmart (WMT) and gold (GLD) were expected to move in the green zone, and they began the week constructive, matching expectations. LLY was bullish in the Blueprint, keep an eye on that one using the levels since the spike looks constructive.

As we are early in the week, the Weekly Compass continues to serve as our primary navigational guide, these daily updates provide specific price daily levels to watch: Tesla (TSLA) is trading bullishly as expected, today’s shooting star Microsoft (MSFT) is consistent with a potential consolidation, the indecisive price action on Google (GOOG) matches with the thesis noted in the Compass, let’s study all the magnificent seven, including the bearish move for Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA).

The Weekly Compass is here:

Navigating Volatility: Key Levels as the VIX Jumps 4%

Reviewing today’s key levels, the anticipated central daily level for the S&P 500 (SPX) was 7,746, with expected resistance at 7,774. True to form, the high of the day reached 7,773.8 before reversing. As mentioned previously, these levels serve as effective tools for tracking where institutional algorithms can react. For the E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES=F), the anticipated central daily level was 7,763, with resistance pegged at a monthly and daily confluence zone of 7,799 to 7,800. The session high hit that zone before reversing at 7,798.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, let’s assess the daily levels for both the SPX and ES=F plus the entire Magnificent Seven (AAPL, GOOG, TSLA, NVDA, MSFT, META, and AMZN) alongside SpaceX (SPCX). Because each name presents distinct technical conditions, their collective movement will dictate the next broader market leg. The tracking for SpaceX (SPCX) follows the anticipated bullish call since last week

Let’s map out the precise bullish-above and bearish-below thresholds for tomorrow, combining them with weekly levels to anticipate key confluence zones. Upgrade to the paid plan to unlock this analysis and all exclusive content at SmartReversals.com.

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SPX and E-mini Futures (ES=F), Daily Plan:

Before covering all the Magnificent Seven and SpaceX, let us analyze the levels for these two:

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The SPX traded in a narrow range, respecting the daily levels shared yesterday. The 7,745 central daily level acted as anticipated resistance signaling weakness since yesterday. From there, the index moved sideways down to the first daily support at 7,697.

Energy prices surged today since markets faced a renewed wave of caution as geopolitical negotiations hit temporary stops (as anticipated during the weekend, Geopolitics is the constant question mark in the market today). On the other hand, economic data showed this morning a slight rise in weekly U.S. unemployment claims, tomorrow the July employment report will be released early in the morning.

Opening reversals remained a theme today. MU recovered from an initial -4% premarket drop to close down -1.3%, offering another good example of a squeeze from oversold levels at the opening. This pattern aligns with the examples posted in yesterday’s educational piece on combining Bollinger Bands with S/R timeframes for paid subscribers.

Similar bounces occurred in SMH and AMD. However, these semiconductor names still have work to do to reclaim key moving averages on the daily and weekly charts, not to mention key monthly levels for MU and AMD.

From the stocks we’re monitoring closely this week:

• UBER: Acted constructively, reclaiming its central weekly level (CWL) at 69 and closing right at the central monthly level, with a favorable weekly setup as of now.

• SHOP: Danced around its central daily level of 146 while a major gap below leaves room for consolidation within a broader bullish context.

• NVDA: Showed indecision, facing rejection at the daily resistance of 222 and retracing to the 219 central daily level (both anticipated last night). It is set to open under pressure tomorrow below the updated bullish above / bearish below central daily level (updated below).

• MU: Attempted to recover its central daily level of 901 after bouncing off 826, both precalculated levels shared yesterday. The price remains under pressure below the central monthly level and must hold above 873.9 tomorrow to maintain a constructive outlook.

Today’s Agenda:

1. Let’s examine the most important chart of the moment to evaluate how the week is looking.

2. Daily plan and levels for the SPX

3. The daily levels below also cover critical semiconductor names (MU, NVDA, AVGO, TSM, and SMH) essential for the broader market rally, alongside megacaps that reported earnings this week: AMD, LLY, MU, SHOP, MELI, UBER, APP, and SPCX, which is looking constructive relative to its levels considering today’s +6% bounce.

Let’s begin.

The Most Important Chart of the Week:

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The SPX and the NDX continued their bullish move. The NDX validated the bullish setup studied in the Weekly Compass posted on Saturday, indicating that the weekly setup for the index could mark the beginning of a new bull leg and a strong start to the week.

The weekly setup provides directional guidance, and once that move gains traction, we navigate it using support and resistance levels. Both the SPX and NDX opened the week above their central weekly levels, validating the bullish thesis. For the SPX, clearing 7,563 on Monday served as the first bullish checkpoint modeled since Friday. For the NDX, clearing 28,862 (along with 754 for SPY and 702 for QQQ) printed clear conviction for both indices.

I highlighted a couple of elements yesterday in this daily note after the market closed for paid subscribers:

• AMZN was likely to retrace given its overextension, and the stock fell 2.3% today.

• SMH needed to hold the line by staying above its central weekly level of 537.

Today, the setup printed continuation. We navigate the move using weekly levels to track momentum and daily levels to identify early signals of reversals. The SPX needed to stay above 7,571.8 as its central daily level. With that condition met, the next bullish layers where institutional algorithms were likely to react were 7,638 (which was essentially conquered at the open), 7,677 (easily passed with conviction at 10:45 AM), and 7,744, where the market closed the session to print new all-time highs.

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Two major drivers fueled today’s bullish setup:

First, PLTR. The stock was flagged as bullish last week in the Weekly Compass after recovering its central weekly level of 124, and the rest is history. We simply manage the combination of directional indication and set a stop using 124 as a reference (remember, stops are set below the level for longs and above the level for shorts). The fundamental picture was summarized in yesterday’s note, and the 29% move today was impressive, fueling the broader market and a software industry that has been showing strong bullish intent (with MSFT being another stock tracked in our regular watchlist that was analyzed with bullish probabilities ahead of earnings).

Second, geopolitics. The rally was further fueled after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that active negotiations could yield a deal to reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz within 24 to 48 hours. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude futures both dropped over 5%, easing inflation and cost anxieties.

Today’s content:

• Daily plan with levels for the SPX tomorrow, as shared in this daily note.

• The fundamental picture for AMD and SPCX. Both moved higher during regular market hours but are currently giving up their daily gains following their after-hours earnings releases. We cover the reasons why.

• Daily levels combined with longer-term support and resistance layers for companies posting earnings this week, allowing you to navigate their price action: PLTR, SPCX, AMD, LLY, SHOP, MELI, UBER, and APP.

• Daily levels for semiconductors, which remain vital for the continuation of the rally. Levels for SMH, NVDA, AVGO, AMD, MU, and TSM are included.

• A key element to watch tomorrow to help manage risk. This was also highlighted to the paid community last night and is beginning to brew a significant move today.

Let’s begin.

SPX - Daily Plan:

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The U.S. stock market kicked off August with a powerful broad-market surge, driving the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a new closing high.

Technology moved constructively following the bullish setup we studied on Saturday in the Weekly Compass. The Magnificent Seven continued higher today, exactly as anticipated in the Weekly Compass, where I highlighted that GOOG, TSLA, and MSFT were set to move in a bullish direction, targeting 368 (+3.4%) 🎯, 319 (+2.7%) 🎯, and 491 (+5.8%) 🎯, respectively. All of them hit those specific targets with precision.

META, as I also anticipated, reversed from bearish conditions by reclaiming 564.2. The +6% move today matches the anticipated gap fill attempt I mentioned previously🎯, using GOOG as a reference point, a stock that filled already the gap printed after earnings results (as anticipated as well with technical considerations).

PLTR, on the other hand, was also expected to break out constructively by recovering 124.5 today as Central Weekly Level, the recovery happened during market hours 🎯. While technicals do not predict earnings results, extreme conditions help price action move in the expected direction when a catalyst arrives; true to form, the stock rallied over 14% in extended hours after posting earnings.

I publish three core analyses every week, beginning on Fridays with the weekly and monthly support and resistance levels for the week and month ahead. On Saturdays, the Weekly Compass presents the technical deep dive for the SPX, NDX, Dow Jones, Semiconductors, IWM, Crypto, all the Magnificent Seven (NVDA, TSLA, AAPL, MSFT, etc.), metals, and other megacaps. That publication presents high-probability setups for the week in a single blueprint complete with price targets and risk-management levels, followed by daily notes providing actionable levels for the SPX. Get access here:

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Because the move was rapid, and we have learned to exercise caution when aggressive selloffs or rallies occur on a Monday, these daily notes help navigate the price action until our third core publication arrives on Wednesday with more market intelligence.

For this week, alongside our daily SPX execution levels, I’m closely monitoring the daily levels for key companies posting earnings from our expanded watchlist: PLTR, AMD, LLY, APP, UBER, SHOP, SPCX, and MELI. We are also tracking semiconductor leaders MU, TSM, NVDA, and AVGO, as they are crucial for the sustainability of the current market rally, they presented a concerning premarket selloff earlier today.

Let’s begin.

Daily SPX Levels and Fundamental PLTR Drivers:

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Last night in the mid-week update, I mentioned how likely a bounce was for today given oversold conditions in the SPX, QQQ, and SMH. I also noted how oversold AMZN was to guard against further declines, clarifying that technicals do not anticipate earnings reactions. In a neutral way, I highlighted that AAPL was overbought and outlined the technical reasons why a decline was likely. Both of those expectations played out today 🎯.

Following its earnings release, META began the decline with a gap-fill attempt as expected, MSFT continues to look constructive, and GLD showed technical signs of recovery, closing in the green today and building on the bullish thesis. On a separate note, TSLA was due for a strong bounce, which also materialized today.

All of those moves were anticipated through objective and transparent technical analysis presented to subscribers. Now let us talk about levels, because the bounce was strong and recovered essential lines modeled ahead of the session.

The central daily level for the SPX was 7,360, acting as support during the session. The price moved toward the next daily level of 7,406, consolidating until 12:45 before continuing its course to the central weekly and monthly levels, which served as a precise resistance zone. Specifically, the central monthly level at 7,452 acted as the exact resistance zone for the high of the day, while the central weekly level of 7,437 marked the precise close of the session. Because those levels were modeled before July and the week began, they serve as vital guides for anticipating where institutional algorithms are likely to react.

MSFT rallying 15% as the third-largest company in the world fueled tech, combined with cooler PCE inflation data and slowing GDP growth, helped calm the intense bond market sell-off from the day before. It remains impressive how accurately the levels acted as destinations for the SPX, and how MSFT reached our annual level of 459 included in my weekly charts.

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With that said, let us study the SPX levels for tomorrow. AMZN, the fourth-largest company, is moving strongly after hours (+8%), while AAPL, the second-largest company, continues to validate its bearish reversal thesis with a -7% move.

As we close out the final day of July, the market must hold the following weekly chart structure to set up a consolidation phase rather than a continued sell-off:

The Most important Chart of the Week:

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Investors continued pulling capital away from AI-driven semiconductor darlings and rotated into consumer, healthcare, and industrial sectors. The semiconductor rout worsened as the Semiconductor ETF SMH tumbled for a fourth straight day, with individual memory leaders Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Micron Technology (MU) each plunging over 8%.

Meanwhile, robust Q2 results fueled a massive surge in the Dow. Paint maker Sherwin-Williams (SHW) jumped over 8%, Coca-Cola (KO) rose 5% after raising its full-year guidance, and Boeing (BA) added more than 4% on positive free cash flow data. You could truly call this an earnings extravaganza in value corporations.

High Probability Setups Update

It is only Tuesday, and the targets shared over the weekend in the Weekly Compass continue working exceptionally well. Apple (AAPL) defied the broader hardware slump by climbing to become the first company in history to hit a $5 trillion market capitalization, hitting my first bullish target of 338 and gaining 2.1% this week 🎯.

Yesterday, I highlighted AMD and SMH as high-probability bearish setups from the Weekly Compass that successfully reached their targets. Today, AAPL, WMT, COST, and NFLX have joined them by hitting their bullish targets. This demonstrates how my setups remain objective and neutral (not only bearish or bullish), with every chart analyzed strictly on its own merits:

• AMD: Exceeded its extended bearish target of 469, falling -12.9% this week 🎯.

• SMH: Exceeded its extended bearish target of 534, falling -5.6% this week 🎯.

• WMT: Exceeded its bullish target of 113, up +3.8% this week 🎯.

• NFLX: Reached its bullish target of 73.1, up +4.4% this week 🎯.

• AAPL: Hit 338, bullish +2.1% this week 🎯.

• COST: Exceeded its bullish target of 962, up +3.3% this week 🎯..

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Consistency

This is the main attribute every investor and trader must possess, which is why I publish special studies in the market intelligence section on SmartReversals.com and revisit them constantly. Today, I am recalling a key point from the Weekly Compass: the -1.3% move in the NDX at the beginning of the week.

After the analysis, get access to the daily levels not only for the SPX, but also for META, MSFT, AMZN, AAPL, SPCX, XOM, V, QCOM, and KO.

Oversold Conditions Reached: What to Expect

The chart below illustrates what I outlined over the weekend regarding the rapid sell-off scenario for tech.

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As noted in Saturday’s chat update for the QQQ chart, tech remains locked in a bearish channel, leaving any rally on Monday with low probability to be sustained for the SPX, NDX, SPY, and QQQ.

True to my weekend outlook, both GOOG printed a gap-fill attempt today bouncing +2.3%, while TSLA overextended its daily technical conditions, keeping the thesis for an imminent squeeze fully intact. However, the standout move of the session was a sell-off in semiconductors. Both SMH and AMD cleanly sliced during market hours through the bearish targets outlined in the Weekly Compass, closing down -2.3% and -5.2% respectively 🎯.

We also saw an intriguing divergence within tech today. Instead of the usual split between the Magnificent Seven and semiconductors, the divergence occurred between hardware and software. The software ETF (IGV) rallied 3.3%, alongside strong gains in tracked names like MSFT (+1.9%), PLTR (+7%), NOW (+7%), ORCL (+4.3%), and APP (+5.3%).

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The latest S/R levels for this week and the Weekly Compass are below:

Looking ahead to tomorrow’s game plan, below I map out daily levels for the SPX, accompanied by a breakdown of the mega-caps reporting earnings this week, including META, MSFT, AMZN, AAPL, XOM, V, QCOM, and KO. SPCX also included, it printed a third consecutive indecisive daily candle today as it edges closer to the earnings report.

Let’s begin

SPX: Levels and Plan for Tuesday, July 28

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However, the definitive catalyst driving the market lower extended beyond tech alone. By 8:29 AM, futures were already sliding steadily, but once the weekly jobless claims were posted, the vulnerable market setup outlined in the previous night's daily technical levels quickly gained traction. Upon the release of the data, ES Futures consolidated a breach of our central weekly level (bullish above/bearish below) of 7,535 posted last Friday, taking a direct elevator down toward the bearish support target of 7,438.8 (also posted last Friday with the S/R levels). This downside acceleration was triggered as initial U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly plunged by 22,000 to 187,000 for the week ending July 18, completely defying economist forecasts of 212,000 and marking the lowest level of applications for unemployment benefits since September 1969.

Why Good News Is Bad News

The Federal Reserve remains heavily focused on containing inflation, a pressure exacerbated by the recent spike in oil (CL=F) to $92. This rock-solid jobs data proves the broader economy has not broken under the current interest rates, giving the central bank the green light to keep policy restrictive for longer. While the FED meets next week and is widely expected to hold interest rates steady, the probability of at least one more quarter-percentage-point rate hike before the end of 2026 has increased. Because the current macroeconomic environment shows no signs of slowing down quickly, the economy is not cooling fast enough to bring inflation smoothly back to its 2% target. Although an immediate rate hike is not consensus for this meeting, market participants should prepare for a decidedly hawkish tone from the FOMC.

As we head into next week, a heavy slate of mega-cap earnings featuring MSFT, META, AMZN, and AAPL will coincide with the Fed meeting. The current price structure looks extremely fragile for the SPX, NDX and the Mag 7 in general, with the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) losing the critical annual level we have tracked over the last few weeks while studying a developing top formation that is now gaining clear traction.

Today, we will examine the daily levels to watch for the SPX tomorrow, alongside specific parameters for GOOG, TSLA, NOW, INTC, SPCX, NVDA, and MU. Notably, unhealed gaps remain above the current price for GOOG, TSLA, and the SPX.

The specific daily levels that must be recovered on Friday 24th to hint any tactical bounce within an overall bearish setup are below.

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Before the chart let’s study the daily plan for the SPX:

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Chip and hardware makers roared back following a bruising sell-off in prior weeks. Micron (MU) surged 12%, Intel Corp (INTC) rallied 8.6%, and the semiconductors ETF SMH that we track, jumped 4.5%.

As mentioned yesterday, this is a market driven by extended hours moves, the premarket price action is driving most of the moves, and today’s pullback at the opening was marginal, the SPX found support at the central daily level (CDL: Bullish above/bearish below) of 7,465; this level was modeled yesterday for today’s session with 7,490 as the next daily target to watch, the price bounce from the CDL and flipped that first resistance to support in the morning.

I know, MMM and GM rallied 7% and 5% respectively, but the move in SMH (4.5%) was more than twice the NDX bounce (1.9%), and far above SPX (0.9%); for that reason this can be considered a semiconductors-driven rally (or market?), and we’re updating daily levels for MU and NVDA, the first one finding support at the daily level of 917 + the monthly level of 920 during the first hour of the session, then the price action surpassed 961, another level provided yesterday in the set of S/R levels. It’s interesting that NVDA moved a modest 1.9%.

Below, you will see the daily levels for the SPX as we daily update, and the same approach of daily levels combined with weekly and monthly ones to identify confluence zones where institutional algorithms are likely to react for the following securities: SPX, NVDA, MU, GOOG, TSLA, INTC, NOW, and SPCX

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Why those stocks this week?

Semiconductors are showing signs or recovery, GOOG and TSLA post earnings tomorrow, same INTC and NOW on Thursday, all of them are likely to print major moves this week, and SPCX as I mentioned during the weekend, is getting close to a bounce, today the stock recovered its daily level and kept it as support during all the session, the updated levels for tomorrow for all of them are here:

Daily Levels and Higher-Timeframe Confluence Zones

These are the considerations for tomorrow, let’s begin with the SPX:

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While the initial release of Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model last week rattled investors with fears of a “cost-efficient” Chinese competitor, the narrative shifted this morning. Reports that Moonshot AI had to pause new consumer subscriptions due to a lack of sufficient compute capacity served as a potent reminder that, regardless of software efficiency, the physical demand for high-end hardware remains a massive, unyielding bottleneck. This development provided a degree of relief to U.S. chipmakers, suggesting that the “AI race” still requires the very infrastructure that American semiconductor leaders provide.

The Setup Remains Weak

Despite the morning’s initial optimism, the S&P 500 (from +0.5% premarket to -0.2% at the close), Nasdaq 100 (from +1.1% in premarket to +0.04% close), and the Dow Jones (from +0.3% to -0.55%) all lost their central weekly levels within the first 30 minutes of the opening bell, that is a very relevant reference of the lack of conviction in price action. These levels, which I modeled last Friday for this week, are essential for validating potential reversals once breached. You can get them here for the SPX, NDX, DJI, all the magnificent seven, ETFs like QQQ, IWM, SMH, and other megacaps:

The rejection at the 10-day moving average (DMA) today pushed the price back below the 50 DMA, resulting in a close near the lows. This technical action suggests bearish continuation for tomorrow and shows caution ahead of major earnings this week. (GOOG, TSLA, NOW, and INTC, all tracked via levels in this publication below).

Last week, I shared an educational piece on how to assess reversal risks after premarket rallies or selloffs using the SMH, the semiconductor ETF we track. Today’s price action followed that exact script: a premarket rally that ultimately evaporated. I will now break down that same technical indicator and timeframe for the QQQ, applying the lessons we studied last week to today’s market movement.

It Is Perfectly Human

The impulse to react when watching these premarket moves is totally human. It is perfectly normal to feel that pressure. The most important thing is to remain calm considering the price structure (which is studied here and it’s weak for all the indices) and use our levels for validation in order to avoid traps. While we studied this with the SMH last week, let’s apply the same analysis to the QQQ today, as technology drove the premarket rally that ultimately faded.

In Today’s Paid Content:

• QQQ: The setup that helps you avoid market traps: Today’s live case study.

• SPX: Daily levels for tomorrow, combined with all key weekly levels.

• Deep Dive: Our focus for this week includes GOOG, TSLA, NOW, and INTC ahead of their earnings reports. We will also monitor NVDA and MU given the rapid, shifting dynamics in the semiconductor sector, along with SPCX, as the current selloff may present an opportunity for a bounce. The analysis includes daily levels in combination with weekly and monthly ones to anticipate confluence zones.

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QQQ: This Setup Again Brought the Price Back Down...

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This week, we have been tracking developments in the tech sector, specifically focusing on the divergence between the “Magnificent Seven” and the semiconductor industry. Until yesterday, the Magnificent Seven (AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, GOOG, and META) had been cushioning a broader tech selloff, with bullish moves mitigating the decline in semiconductors (MU, AMD, TSM, QCOM, AVGO, and others).

Today, some of the Magnificent Seven (GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, and META) surrendered their gains, while semiconductor stocks continued their downward trend. As I highlighted last night for SMH, the loss of the 10-week moving average (10WMA) was significant. Furthermore, the loss of 598.8—the central weekly level—along with the considerable distance from the central monthly level, made 590 the key daily level needed to validate any potential bounce in this bearish environment.

Regarding the SPX, I posted last night 7,560.3 as the central daily level for today (CDL), with 7,539 and 7,505 serving as the support levels below. The price bounced this morning from the first support zone and then failed to hold the central daily level (CDL). With the temporary support at 7,539 fading, the next bearish target modeled last night was 7,505, and that level ended up to be the low of the day with precision.

The market closed in bearish mode, meaning the central daily level for Friday will act as resistance. Subscribe and get this proven edge every day, plus the main publications on Fridays, Saturdays, and Wednesdays.

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Before we dive into those SPX levels (including today QQQ, SMH, IWM, and other essential ETFs), let’s analyze the status of the latest resolution in tech and the impact of today’s selloff. Also a special note about NFLX.

The most important chart for the entire week builds on the top formation scenario we have been considering since Saturday and tracking in these daily updates.

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U.S. stocks closed mostly higher on Tuesday as cooler-than-expected inflation data and strong bank earnings relieved pressure on Wall Street, overshadowing ongoing geopolitical tensions and a major corporate profit warning.

The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed that annual inflation slowed to 3.5%, cooler than the 3.8% economists had projected. A 9.7% drop in gasoline prices helped pull headline inflation down, easing investor anxieties about potential interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

The S&P 500 (SPX): Gained +0.4% to close at 7,543.59. At yesterday’s close, I shared the price levels where institutional algorithms were likely to react today; 7,529 served as our central daily level (CDL: bullish above and bearish below) with resistance at 7,551. I also noted that while it is not a formal technical indicator, early-week volatility has recently tended to reverse. True to form, the open was highly volatile, as shown in the 15-minute SPX and QQQ charts below. By framing the candles based on their closing prices, you can see that the SPX moved within the 7,529 to 7,551 range.

Given the internal divergence and lack of synchronization across the Magnificent Seven, semiconductors, and software, technology remains our primary focus today. To navigate this, I provided specific central daily levels (CDL) for QQQ, SMH, and IGV yesterday, setting our bullish above / bearish below levels at 713, 589, and 92.5, respectively. Each CDL was accompanied by corresponding support and resistance zones. The chart above presents in the 15 minute timeframe for the day, QQQ shows how the price stayed above the CDL (713), and moved between 716.9 and 722 during the day.

Interestingly, in the software sector (IGV), we observed a strong bounce from 90.5; the price climbed to 91.6, recovered the 92.5 CDL by 9:45 AM, and then consolidated at 93.7, a level provided well ahead of the session.

The divergence is impressive, while software was bouncing, semiconductors (SMH) were declining, in this case the CDL was held during the day as support, and the price moved between 595 and 605.

All the lines displayed in the four charts above were provided in yesterday’s publication. Having these levels plotted before the market opens provides a significant edge for any trader. I provide those lines combined with weekly levels so you can anticipate confluence zones.

Below, you will find the updated daily levels for tomorrow. Paid subscribers receive daily SPX levels for every upcoming session. Founding members gain access to that same level of granularity for ETFs, the entire Magnificent Seven, semiconductor leaders, and other major megacaps. Subscribe now to unlock this market intelligence.

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Identifying Major Reversals: A Case Study in SMH and IGV

Before we dive into the daily levels for the SPX and key ETFs for tomorrow, this educational piece will help you anticipate the probabilities of a recovery like the one we observed in IGV today, alongside the retracement seen in SMH:

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Furthermore, I highlighted the elevated risk for long positions in semiconductors, given the bearish formations in MU, AMD, and TSM. Ultimately, these stocks dragged the sector, and subsequently technology, lower on a day when non-tech sectors remained neutral to slightly bullish.

Regarding the SPX, there was no weakness in its chart, but given the risk from the tech sector the central daily level (CDL) for today was anticipated on Saturday. The breakdown of 7,554 served as the initial warning before our central weekly level was also compromised.

Daily levels provide early warnings when price action begins to reverse; please see the updated SPX daily levels below. We will also examine the daily levels for key ETFs, including QQQ, SMH, IWM, DIA, VXX, and IGV. Notably, the software sector showed impressive relative strength (consistent with our bullish analysis for MSFT).

Subscribe to the paid plan and unlock the daily levels that will define bullish or bearish momentum for the SPX tomorrow, the respective support and resistance levels, and the most important chart to track this entire week, the one that will give direction to the market for the coming weeks.

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The Main Chart and Formation to Track:

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The stock market closed with an interesting reversal today. The SPX held its daily level of 7464 as support (modeled yesterday after the market closed), attempting to consolidate at 7,506 during the first hour of trading and filling the early gap. This established a clean, bullish move for the day without magnets below. In this case, the SPX is validating the bullish reversal candle studied last night, providing direction to the setup charted (which featured combined signals and for that reason we use levels). The fact that the central daily level held as support, while the price remains above the central weekly and monthly levels, indicates a bullish formation.

As noted over the weekend, we have been closely monitoring technology as our key mover, and today was no exception. The bullish move in the NDX and QQQ was driven by semiconductors and the magnificent seven. Specifically, META closed up 3.2% with a constructive move that filled the gap formed in the pre-market when it recovered the Central Weekly Level of 587.5 (the bullish above / bearish below level modeled since last Friday. AAPL is approaching our bullish weekly target with high volatility, having bounced 2.4% so far this week. Similarly, MSFT printed a bullish comeback after filling the morning’s gap. AMZN is also breaking out, moving constructively above its central weekly level while recovering the central monthly level with conviction. Overall, the Magnificent Seven appear constructive, suggesting that last week’s bullish move is likely to continue.

Semiconductor Sector: Caution Advised The semiconductor sector presents a different narrative and requires close attention. While the broader market remains constructive, the semiconductor sector is exhibiting some persistent weakness, with notable gaps below current prices that warrant caution.

• SMH: The ETF faced rejection at its central weekly level of 611, and the 20-day moving average acted as a resistance line. With the price failing to maintain momentum, the chart below presents the technical conditions that suggest caution.

• MU: Micron also faced rejection at its central weekly level of 1031.3. It failed to breach its 20-day and 5-week moving averages. While a bullish stochastic crossover is present, the lack of conviction in today’s price action (falling from the highs) is a significant watch out.

Subscribe and unlock the daily levels below for the SPX with this special zoom in to semiconductors including SMH, NVDA, AVGO, AMD, MU, TSM, QCOM, MRVL, and AMAT.

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Is this Bearish?

Both the SPX and the NDX/QQQ are constructive, just be mindful of the most relevant condition in Semiconductors that suggest the choppy price action is far from over and major day to day swings could continue based on the following chart and levels for the semiconductor stocks:

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What is a Central Daily Level? It’s a price level where price action is considered bullish above and bearish below. It includes specific support layers calculated one day in advance that consistently anticipate algorithmic reactions. For example, today’s Central Daily Level for the SPX was 7,529.9. The market opened with an immediate rejection at that level, followed by precise tests of the support levels I also shared yesterday to paid subscribers: 7,508.2 and 7,479. When you examine the 5 or 15 minute charts, the algorithmic reaction is unmistakable. These levels help to anticipate reversals before weekly and monthly levels (modeled every Friday) are reached.

This week, we’re tracking technology as a group, given the internal divergence between the Magnificent Seven, software, and semiconductors. Below are the essential daily levels for the SPX and QQQ, along with a “must-watch” chart for semiconductors.

As anticipated in the Weekly Compass, choppy price action can persist in semiconductors, marked by daily rallies followed by selloffs, much like we saw with AMD (+6.6% on Monday; -6.5% today). Regarding the SMH, the bearish target of 563 (-4.9%) anticipated last Saturday can be considered reached, with the latest low hitting 565 following Monday’s rejection at our central Weekly Level (CWL) of 611.

Other high-probability updates: IBIT and ETHA continued their bullish moves sealing 35.8 (+2.6%) and 13.4 (+3.9%) respectively; GLD hit our 383 weekly target before reversing; and the bullish move we’ve been expecting for XOM finally materialized with a +3.8% gain.

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Can multi-week swings be managed with the Weekly Compass? Absolutely, last week PLTR was expected to bounce, the setup for this week was documented as bullish for this week as well with specific target at 136.6 for a +5.6% move, that level was reached comfortably today. The Weekly Compass can be accessed here:

Subscribe now to unlock tomorrow's daily levels for the SPX, QQQ, SMH and Semiconductor megacaps like NVDA, AVGO, TSM, AMD, MU, QCOM, and AMAT; along with an essential chart for SMH. Tomorrow is Market Intelligence edition, featuring graphic updates on all high-probability setups from last Saturday’s report.

SPX/QQQ/NVDA/MU Daily Levels & SMH Chart - Expect Continued Volatility:

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The week began with strong bullish momentum as the SPX pushed toward all-time highs. High-probability setups like PLTR and AAPL are already nearing their targets, while crypto and precious metals (BTC, ETH, GLD, SLV) continue to follow the constructive paths outlined on June 27th, not before.

Why do I emphasize “timing”? Because at SmartReversals, the information is specific: technicals, price, and time. Generalized predictions aren’t enough; in June alone, investors who held through the bullish noise for metals saw painful drawdowns of -12% in Gold and -22% in Silver. We focus on objective data to navigate these moves including specific price levels that if lost, they alert for changes in momentum allowing subscribers making informed decisions to protect capital.

Get access to precise analysis including indicators, targets, and invalidation levels for indices (SPX, NDX, DJI…), ETFs (SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA, SMH, GLD, SLV) and key megacaps (Semiconductors, Magnificent 7, Staples, Finance, Energy) in the latest Weekly Compass, upgrade the subscription to paid an get access to all the publications at SmartReversals.com.

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With that said, let’s assess today’s action in big tech and the daily levels for the SPX for tomorrow. We also need to highlight a critical element currently developing in the volatility index (VIX) that warrants close attention.

Nasdaq 100

Six elements to consider for Tech - VIX Analysis - SPX Daily Levels:

1. Trend Structure: The series of lower highs remains intact, as highlighted by the blue diagonal trendline.

2. Short-Term Momentum: The 20DMA has curled downward, confirming a shift in short-term trend direction.

3. Overbought / Oversold Conditions: The oscillator confirms that price is not yet in oversold territory, suggesting potential room for further downside.

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Beyond the Magnificent Seven, the Weekly Compass highlighted the relevance of 7,347 as a central daily level for the SPX, in addition to the central weekly level mentioned below.

Let’s go straight to the point and assess the SPX, the Magnificent Seven (NVDA, AMZN, TSLA, MSFT, AAPL, MSFT, META, and GOOG), and the implications for QQQ. Unlock the analysis and the Weekly Compass by upgrading to paid subscription.

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SPX Chart: The Daily Floor Bulls Must Defend Tomorrow

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