The S&P 500 rallied for three consecutive weeks when it bounced, gaining over 3% each week. Such an occurrence is rare in the stock market; the move was so rapid that apathy is the common human reaction, similar to what is observed during a breadth thrust signal.

Today, the market is consolidating after this sharp move. Considering the high expectations seen across social media and mainstream news for a decline, I am providing a technical study of these types of events in order to have an objective perspective.

Premium subscribers who have followed my analysis over the past two years know that I do not blindly trust statistical tables. Instead, I study the charts and assess common patterns to reach a conclusion. This approach successfully anticipated several key moves: the 2024 pullback to the 40-week moving average in the midst of euphoria (triggered by the Japan carry trade in August); a major correction to $4,800 after touching $6,109 that I projected at the end of 2024 (which materialized in March and April 2025 after reaching $6,147); and the bullish continuation during the period of apathy in April and May 2025, which evolved into new all-time highs. Most recently, in March, during the recent correction, I posted a study of previous bull markets highlighting that a major top was unlikely to be in, based on a comprehensive analysis of historical pullbacks and corrections.

Another special study posted two weeks ago, focused on gaps and the likelihood of them being filled, the conclusions continue playing out:

Neutrality is essential when analyzing the markets. Today, I am analyzing the current price structure to provide a longer-term view that transcends the daily charts and their inherent volatility. Remember, while charts do not repeat themselves, technical patterns do. The best example of this is the consensus in March about April 2026 to produce an identical lower low to the one observed in April 2025, but it didn’t happen. Charts are never exactly the same, but technical conditions frequently repeat and our conditions are not the ones of 2025, we will study the right benchmarks today.

SmartReversals assesses near term price movements using the Support and Resistance levels and the Weekly Compass and published every Friday and Saturday. The Wednesday edition serves a different purpose, providing a broader perspective with market intelligence that covers macro structures and fundamental analysis to help you navigate the current environment.

Today’s analysis provides a factual outlook for price action for the S&P 500 (SPX) over the next 1, 3, 6, and 12 months. This is not based on gut feelings or sophisticated tables that you cannot audit. Instead, I rely strictly on real price action and verifiable charts.

Today’s edition is essential reading for both long term investors and active traders. Upgrade to a paid subscription now to gain immediate access.

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The stock market update is also included today, assessing the moves of META, GOOG, AMZN, and MSFT.

Let’s begin.

SPX Outlook: Is the Top In, or is This a Pause Before New Highs?

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Stage of the Market: SPX and NDX Price Targets

I share high-probability trades and technical analysis on Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays including special levels for paid subscribers, and I also post on Wednesdays, focusing on fundamental analysis and special market intelligence assessments. These are my must-read publications for both long-term investors and traders.

For today, I am releasing a special publication analyzing gaps. What technical structure is present when a gap remains unfilled? There are over 19 gaps in the SPX since 1970 that have never been filled. Today, I am going to decode the similarities and differences between those historical gaps and the one we have right now.

High Probability Setups

Before continuing, my high probability setups are delivering and exceeding the expected results, last Saturday I anticipated the relevance of $6,816 for the SPX, and how likely would be for the bullish setups to perform if the index conquered that level.

The results are strong:

• First, NVIDIA (NVDA) had a bullish target of $194.5 for a 3.1% gain; currently, the weekly gain stands at 5.4%.

• I also indicated Apple (AAPL), which had a bullish setup with a target of $266 for a 2.3% gain; so far this week, the stock has gained 2.3%.

• Another high-probability note was for QQQ, highlighting $623.7 for a 2.1% gain and an extended target of $636.3 for a 4.1% gain. Right now, that weekly move accounts for 4.3%.

• I also highlighted the high likelihood of bullish reversals for Palantir (PLTR), Tesla (TSLA), and Visa (V). Palantir is currently rallying 11% this week, Tesla is up 12%, and Visa has rallied 3.8%. All three were identified as high-probability reversals.

• I posted bullish setups for JPM and LLY, their targets have not been reached, JPM remains above the key weekly level; if the central weekly level of $304 is lost, that will trigger a cut of the position (my daily levels help to anticipate these type of moves), in the case of LLY the reference for stop losses at $933 was breached, so capital was protected avoiding a further -3% move.

• Finally, Bitcoin is also looking constructive for the week; I presented the reasons for a bullish move, and so far, Bitcoin has gained 5.6% this week.

That’s 7 out of 9 securities moving as anticipated = 77% success rate.

Don’t hesitate, market conditions remain favorable, and while consolidations are likely, we will break down probabilities today. Upgrading your subscription is a no-brainer.

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Now, let’s begin this special study and market update.

SPX $6,618: Decoding the Rarity of the Unfilled Gap

Using the same approach that documented the December 2024 selloff toward $4,800, and the same logic I presented a month ago, highlighting that a major top was unlikely because pullbacks and corrections are normal, I will now detail the likely outcome for this gap and the projected course for the SPX.

Let’s begin.

SPX - Setups for Gaps Unfilled - What to Expect:

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It remains to be seen if the market will maintain the momentum from yesterday. Last night, I posted the Central Monthly Levels for April, which are the key levels where price switches from bullish (above) to bearish (below). Paid subscribers already recognize how precisely these monthly levels acted as resistance today not only for the SPX, and SPY, but for NDX, QQQ, META, NVDA, GLD, DIA, IWM, AVGO, BITCOIN, and many others as well… The stock market moves in a mathematic way, for that reason these modeled levels work so well.

Indecisive Price Action Once Again

Tracking a broad set of securities helps identify relative strength and rotations across different sectors and individual names. High-profile tickers like SMH, TSLA, AMD, GOOG, and AAPL are currently reclaiming key levels, suggesting that potential opportunities are forming. Our primary levels for managing risk are listed below.

We will study the essential level that must hold tomorrow as support to consider bullish continuation, or just to confirm if a gap fill is imminent if they are breached. The charts for Volatility, NVDA, and XOM as a key oil player are also posted in the market update.

Measuring Major Risks

As disciplined traders focused on risk-reward, we must revisit our risk scenarios. For this current move, as noted yesterday, there is a bearish monthly setup that must be considered to navigate April effectively. Today, we will analyze the market’s symmetric behavior during major tops. Based on patterns observed over the last 40 years, we will assess how the market behaves when a significant top is formed.

To put it simply, today’s publication provides the specific pattern used to measure the ultimate destination of a bear market. A bold statement? No, the charts will speak for themselves. This isn't gut feeling; it’s data used in December 2024 to anticipate the destination for a bear market in 2025, the bottom was $35 away from my $4,800 target.

Upgrade to unlock the analysis and the most likely scenario for 2026:

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We will assess the implications of the current structure, while reinforcing my thesis from last weekend regarding my worst case scenario.

Let’s begin.

This Pattern Matches 40 Years of Bear Market Bottoms, Including the 1987 Black Monday Crash

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As mentioned last Saturday: “We are monitoring for a potential “Dead Cat Bounce” or a full structural reversal. Given that the S&P 500 is at its final modeled support for the month (6,553), and the last two hours of Friday showed a reversal “print,” the technical setup for an early-week rally is in place”.

Yes, during times of war, uncertainty is significant and managing rapid moves becomes much more difficult. For that reason, with prudence and transparency that the market could affect setups, I highlighted in the setups Blueprint good chances for a bullish reversal in several stocks last Saturday. So far this week, they have rallied as follows: PLTR (+2.8%), JPM (+3.1%), AAPL (+1.9%), SMH (+3.7%), and AMD (+9.4%). I expected bearish continuation in AMZN and META, but AMZN is rallying +3.1% so far. XOM hit its bearish weekly target before reversing to continue its rally.

Today I will be focused on market conditions and in a guide about stop losses, since a couple of subscribers have asked me questions about it. I’m glad there are questions about it, it means that there is a strong interest on capital protection.

Stock Market Conditions

I’ll use today a narrative combining different indicators and charts for the SPX, then we will study stop losses and how to “trail” them using our Support and Resistance levels. Let’s begin:

Five Charts that Suggest a Bottom in Near for the S&P500:

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Powell said the Fed was not making as much progress on inflation as hoped. “The forecast is that we will be making progress on inflation, not as much as we had hoped, but some progress on inflation”

On oil and the Iran War: “Near-term measures of inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks, likely reflecting the substantial rise in oil prices caused by the supply disruptions in the Middle East. In the near term, higher energy prices will push up overall inflation, but it is too soon to know the scope and duration of the potential effects on the economy.”

That said, markets got the answer they feared most: not a hike, not a cut, but a Fed that is stuck.

There are tree forces are converging simultaneously, and each one makes the other harder to resolve.

• Oil. Currently consolidating around $96, this is not a demand-driven rally. It is a pure supply shock, the most difficult kind for a central bank to respond to.

• Inflation. The Fed revised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast upward to 2.7% from the prior 2.5% projection. The producer price index for February came in at 0.7%, surpassing the consensus of 0.3%. Inflation has now run above the Fed’s 2% target for five consecutive years. The window to “look through” another energy shock is closing.

• Growth. Nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 in February 2026 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The Fed’s own projections maintained a 4.4% unemployment rate forecast for year-end, but that assumes stability, not further deterioration.

These three factors create a dilemma that transcends the typical central bank toolkit. While the Federal Reserve can mitigate a banking crisis by flooded the system with liquidity, it cannot manufacture oil. Conversely, aggressive hikes to control inflation could trigger a total economic contraction. With the Strait of Hormuz facing severe disruption, the resulting supply chain shock is already inflating costs and stifling GDP growth

Today, we will examine two key topics: Stagflation and the Current Market Stage. We will compare historical market tops since 1970 with our current 2026 environment and identify the one missing element required for a "full recipe" to confirm that a bear market has begun.

Why that combination? The technical one is related to the current market environment, where inverse U turns in price have been the constant for seven of the last eight weeks for the SPX and the NDX. Two things mentioned in the Weekly Compass last Saturday are happening: 1) The potential Spike in the SPX given extreme oversold conditions (as we saw on Monday), and 2) the inverse U turn revisiting the lows (as it started yesterday and gained momentum today).

On Saturday, I posted the following outlook: SPX is bearish below $6,700.4. I also included specific volatility levels and additional technical indicators to monitor.

This morning, I shared a chart via chat and email suggesting a bearish reversal. This outlook is based on yesterday’s vanishing rally and current bearish conditions, with both the SPY and QQQ trading below their daily levels. Furthermore, the DIA had already broken below its central weekly level.

As noted last Saturday, this is a peculiar market that exhausts both bulls and bears with its rapid spikes and sharp selloffs. Given that the SPX and NDX both touched critical levels today, and a visit to their 200DMA looks imminent, we must assess the potential implications by comparing this price action to previous bear markets.

Upgrade to a paid subscription today to unlock our essential Wednesday analyses, designed for both long-term investors and active traders. This edition alone is worth the monthly subscription, as it provide clear, actionable references for where the market stands today.

Let’s begin.

Major Tops and Subsequent Bear Markets - 50 Years Study

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The overbought conditions relative to the Bollinger Bands reached historic extremes, surpassing levels seen during the 1990 Gulf War and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Unlike the price-driven peaks of 2008, this overbought conditions are the result of rapid price action fueled by extreme sentiment and a geopolitical conflict.

The high of the week so far has been $119, near the modeled level of $122.9, the price has retraced since to $88, but there is still a lot of impact in the stock market. Today’s edition is a special about oil and what has happened in previous geopolitical crisis related to oil.

The updated chart following the extreme condition is below with other special charts.

We will analyze today the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the 1990 invasion of Kuwait, the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and how those historical precedents frame today’s critical situation.

Before continuing let’s recall my note from the Weekly Compass published on Saturday about the SPX:

“Bearish moves rarely occur in a straight line, we have seen that during these recent weeks; therefore, a bounce is likely for the beginning of next week. In the unlikely event of a gap-down and continued selloff, the case actually becomes more bullish. Extreme oversold conditions often mark solid bottoms, as we saw in the previous 2024 and 2025 crashes.”

The extreme oversold conditions happened in the modeled range of the Support and Resistance levels shared on Friday, where $6,597 was identified for the ES Futures as an extended bearish level; the actual low was $6,584, just a few points from our modeled level. For the SPX, the rapid sell-off reversed on Monday morning, leading to a rally toward our weekly bullish target of $6,857.2.

QQQ moved with equal precision, bottoming at our support zone of $590.1 before bouncing to the $611 weekly bullish target. Both indices validated the reversal thesis (breach of the CWL) outlined in our setups.

As posted last week: Volatility is high today, but the accuracy of the modeled support and resistance levels continue. Moving forward, we are introducing a key addition to our high-probability setups as a metric of risk, but first, let’s analyze the current context for Oil.

Upgrade to the paid plan today. This is a must-read edition, providing the essential context needed to navigate the current environment. It also introduces a new tool designed to help you assess risk conditions for any setup in your portfolio.

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Key Topics Covered Today

• What Determines Whether Impact Is Short or Long-Lasting

• Zoom to the Three Variables that Determine Duration

• Technical Patterns in Previous Geopolitical Events

• Sector-Level Impact - Divergences to Navigate

• Key Market Conditions Added to the High Probability Setups

Let’s begin.

What Determines Whether Impact Is Short or Long-Lasting

the effects of geopolitical events last around three months on average, after which indices begin to mean revert to pre-event levels. The key finding was that the gap between performance after negative and positive events collapses by the three month mark, suggesting markets require roughly one quarter to fully price in the real economic implications of a shock.

The distinction between short-lasting and long-lasting impact comes down to three variables, each of which operates through a distinct economic transmission mechanism. These variables, not the severity of the event in human terms, are what determine whether a shock produces a one-week dip or a bear market.

The events that produced severe and sustained market damage share one or more of three characteristics: they disrupted global energy supply on a sustained basis, they altered the monetary policy environment, or they triggered financial system stress. The standard geopolitical shock rarely meets any of these criteria.

The 1973 Yom Kippur War and the Oil Embargo that followed represent the most instructive case study. The two events together, which occurred within 10 days of each other, produced a 43.2% S&P 500 decline over the following 12 months. This was not simply a geopolitical shock but a structural economic event: oil prices quadrupled, the U.S. entered a deep recession, and the inflation that followed shaped Federal Reserve policy for an entire decade.

The events when the stock market and oil prices resolved quickly, like the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack, show that despite extreme initial uncertainty, the S&P 500 returned 33.5% over the following 12 months. The event did not disrupt global oil supply, did not spread to major economies in a way that affected trade, and did not alter the Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory. All three variables came up negative. The market followed the historical pattern.

Markets price resolutions or complications, not the peak fear: The Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 is the most striking example of this dynamic. The world came as close to nuclear war as it has in the modern era, yet the S&P 500 gained 5.1% in the following month and 27.6% over 12 months.

Zoom to the Three Variables that Determine Duration

Energy Supply Disruption

Oil is the single most important transmission channel between geopolitical events and sustained market damage. Every multi-year S&P 500 decline coincides with a period of sustained oil price elevation. OPEC members currently account for over 79% of proven global oil reserves and 36% of production, meaning disruptions to producing regions carry disproportionate pricing power.

The mechanism is well-established: rising oil prices function as a simultaneous tax on consumers and businesses. They raise input costs across manufacturing, transportation, and consumer goods while compressing disposable income. If oil prices remain elevated for more than one quarter, they begin to alter inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policy, compounding the damage to high-multiple equities.

Federal Reserve Policy Interference

The second transmission channel, increasingly important in a high-valuation market, is monetary policy. When a geopolitical event raises inflation expectations, typically through energy prices, it reduces the probability of rate cuts or increases the probability of rate hikes. In a market where equity valuations are sensitive to discount rates, this effect is amplified significantly.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 illustrates this channel precisely. The initial one-month return was actually positive at +5.9%, consistent with markets digesting limited direct economic impact and following oversold conditions in the SPX. But the following 3-month return was -15.4% (chart below). The primary mechanism was not the war itself but the energy price shock it triggered, which contributed (it was not the only factor, let’s be fair remembering when Jerome Powell stated in 2021 that “inflation was transitory” while printing money) to the highest U.S. inflation in 40 years and forced the Federal Reserve into its most aggressive tightening cycle since 1980.

Financial System Contagion

The third channel is financial system stress. When a geopolitical event threatens the solvency of major financial institutions or sovereign entities, the market impact extends far beyond the initial shock. Central banks cannot easily stop a bank run or prevent credit markets from seizing.

While geopolitical events can have profound impacts on local markets, they rarely have lasting effects on large-cap equity returns unless that financial system contagion channel is activated. Companies with strong fundamentals have weathered numerous geopolitical storms because their earnings power was not durably impaired.

Technical Patterns in Previous Geopolitical Events

The key objective now is to assess how this 2026 escalation compares to previous cycles analyzing the three variables that determine duration. While charts don’t repeat, technical patterns do, and the following charts provide the coordinates to consider what's coming. There are several patterns in the recent price spike that share a striking similarity to past moves with the same projected follow-through.

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As we navigate 2026, the leadership has shifted away from tech giants of 2025 toward defensive and cyclical areas like Energy and Consumer Staples, both of which have recently reached all-time highs.

Today’s publication is the second installment of a special sector analysis that began last Wednesday. While the market digests NVDA’s earnings report, I will break down each sector’s drivers and their current technical conditions, list the largest stocks per sector by volume and fundamentals, and review how current market conditions compare with major tops observed in previous years before bear markets: 2000, 2007, 2018, 2020, 2022, and even 2025.

Today’s Agenda

Amid growing rising fears of a bear market, the ‘Great Rotation’ has become a central topic of discussion. Today, I am providing data-driven references, grounded in charts and facts rather than gut feeling, to help you:

• Apply the Momentum Map to sector rotation.

• Understand the drivers behind price action for all 11 sectors and the implications of which sector is leading.

• Identify the core stocks within each sector.

• Analyze technical charts to distinguish between sustainable momentum and exhaustion for each sector.

• Compare current market conditions with those observed before previous bear markets.

• Develop a strategic plan to navigate the current environment.

• Evaluate high-probability setups for the week, including GLD, SMH, QQQ, and even the SPY is very close; all of which have already hit the targets established in the Weekly Compass named ‘Is Tech Better Than Defensives Today?’.

Last week’s installment can be found here: Click to access.

This is a publication to bookmark, or to print and keep at hand to read regularly, so you don’t get lost among the noise and can remain prepared with specific tools to navigate the market and manage expectations. Unlock today’s content, and all the Market Intelligence Collection:

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Let’s begin:

Sectors - Momentum Map

Sector rotation occurs because different industries respond uniquely to interest rates, inflation, and consumer demand.

• The Early Stage: Falling interest rates typically breathe life into the Information Technology and Real Estate sectors as borrowing costs drop.

• The Late Stage: As an economy overheats and inflation stays “sticky” (as forecasted for much of 2026), investors rotate into Energy and Materials to hedge against rising prices.

• Defensive Shifting: When growth concerns arise, “smart money” often flocks to Consumer Staples and Health Care, which are sectors that provide essential services regardless of economic health.

For new investors: the Momentum Map visualizes where each sector stands regarding its recent momentum and relative strength against the S&P 500. Each sector is in one of four quadrants. Currently, Consumer Staples (XLP), Industrials (XLI), Materials (XLB), and Energy (XLE) are Leading. Healthcare (XLV) is Weakening. Meanwhile, the Lagging quadrant houses Technology (XLK), Communications (XLC), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), and Financials (XLF). Finally, Real Estate (XLRE) and Utilities (XLU) are Improving.

Now let’s go to how to interpret the momentum map (be careful buying blindly a leading security), and then let’s see the details and charts of this first chapter

Understand the Drivers

Below is a breakdown of the 11 sectors, their core signals, their current 2026 technical posture, and the interpretation of the momentum map (be careful buying blindly a leading security using the map, you will see why).

1. Information Technology (XLK)

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Today’s publication features an in-depth seasonality analysis, including a breakdown of the current sector rotation, where is the stock market in the presidential cycle, and key strategic insights for 2026. I also include our mid-week update, reviewing the high-probability setups posted on Friday and Saturday. Unlock the full range of institutional-grade content by upgrading your subscription today.

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Let’s begin.

The “Market Cycle” acts as a leading indicator for the broader “Economic Cycle.”

Historically, sectors rotate in a sequence as the market moves from a bottom to a top:

• Market Bottom / Early Bull Market: Investors typically flock to Technology and Consumer Discretionary in anticipation of recovery.

• Expansion / Bull Market: Leadership broadens to include Industrials and Financials as lending and manufacturing activity accelerate.

• Market Top / Late Expansion: As the economy overheats and inflation rises, capital rotates into Energy and Basic Materials.

• Bear Market / Recession: Defensive sectors like Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Health Care tend to outperform as investors seek stability.

The performance data for 2026 Year-To-Date (YTD) indicates a clear rotation toward late-cycle and defensive sectors, signaling that the market may be navigating a late expansion phase.

The Momentum Map confirms this transition. Energy (XLE) and Materials (XLB) are firmly in the "Leading" quadrant, exhibiting both high strength and positive momentum (potentially overbought). Meanwhile, Consumer Staples (XLP) came from Improving, moving toward leadership as a defensive hedge. Conversely, former market darlings in Technology (XLK) have drifted into the "Lagging" quadrant, suggesting a temporary exhaustion of the growth trade (potentially oversold).

Seasonality: The February Hurdle

While sector rotation provides the “what,” seasonality often provides the “when.” Historical data since 2007 reveals that February has been frequently the least bullish month of the year during the last 20 years.

• The February Slump: SPX data shows February often yields a low percentage of positive months (approx. 50%) and flat-to-negative average returns compared to the strong rallies seen in April (+1.54%) or November (+2.08%).

• March Recovery: Seasonality charts show a historical tendency for a “dip” in late February, followed by a recovery in March as the market prepares for a typically bullish second quarter.

• Choppy 2026: See the red upper line in the following chart presenting the price movements during 2026, if you feel confused as a new investor or trader, find some comfort considering that the beginning of 2026 has been specially volatile and directionless for the S&P 500 in comparison with recent years.

• March often serves as a structural reversal point where the market establishes a first-quarter low before beginning a spring recovery. The data from 2009 - 2017 also reveals a recurring pattern of strength in April and July, followed by significant volatility and technical breakdowns during September, which stands out as the weakest month in the dataset.

How Does 2026 Compare to 2000 and 2008, and What Does the Presidential Cycle Suggest for the SPX?

The seasonality analysis is specially relevant for the range between 2000 and 2008 presented below considering:

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The S&P 500 remained muted not only today but also throughout November and December, showing net moves of just 0.13% and 0.05% respectively. As mentioned weeks ago, the real opportunities right now are found in individual names rather than the broad indices and for that reason I keep track of a specific list of megacaps and securities with high daily volume.

Today, we are reviewing the status of this week’s anticipated setups. The results continue strong this week as well: 4 out of 8 have already hit their price targets, three are actively trending toward their destinations, and only one has been invalidated, triggering the specific stop-loss reference level.

Beyond these highlights, my complete toolkit includes a dashboard with 34 easy to read setups. The vast majority of these are also moving according to our initial analysis.

Those setups alone pay the subscription, the cumulated 70% accuracy rate continues.

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The bullish expectation posted on Saturday for the Standard & Poor’s was correct, the index surpassed the $6,970 target, crossing $7,000 and all-time highs for a moment. This level serves as a reference to close short-term positions if breached.

For the Nasdaq (NDX), the projected move to $25,892.1 (+1.1%) happened yesterday, and the extended target of $26,178.7 was met today (check the impressive precision). Price reversed upon reaching that second target zone. Similarly, the Qs reached our extended target of $636. The SPY target of $694.7 remains the reference line to measure continued momentum.

Regarding individual names, META met the bullish expectation. The target of $683.5 (+3.8%) was surpassed following the earnings report, and the extended target of $708.2 (+7.5%) is being reached.

MSFT also followed the bullish anticipation, surpassing the $478.5 (+2.7%) target. AMZN met its $244.1 (+2.1%) target. The price surpassed this level before declining, offering an opportunity to close positions. High-probability setups also include bearish positions, as seen with LLY; the setup targeted $1021.5 for a -4% move. Since price breached this target and reversed, we will analyze the current context below to determine the next steps.

Beyond the high-probability list, I provide analysis for the full universe of securities. For example, the bullish expectation for NVDA targeted $182.3 (+2.5%). This level marked today’s high, achieved despite daily indecision. Similarly, the bullish setup for TSLA targeted 461.8 (+2.9%).

A critical feature of the weekly setups for 34 securities is the specific reference level for risk management. If a setup is invalidated, this price point dictates the exit. PLTR serves as a prime example: My bullish setup targeted $174 (+2.6%) –$178 (+5.2%) with an invalidation level of $167. When the price retraced and breached $167.6 on Monday, the risk was contained to just -1.2%, protecting paid subscribers to a -7.2% selloff.

This demonstrates the value of combining directional analysis with professional support and resistance levels to manage performance. Other setups are also tracking expectations: IWM, BRK.B and WMT are validating the bearish expectations. Conversely, AAPL triggered its key level and rallied, NVDA is in the green as anticipated reaching $192.3 as anticipated.

I Want This Professional Approach

We will examine below how to utilize the S/R Levels posted every Friday and the Blueprint of Setups posted on Saturday, using charts for SPY, QQQ, META, LLY, IWM, MSFT, and VIX as case studies.

The secret to consistent performance isn’t finding a “new” stock every day, it’s mastering the ones that matter the most. We permanently track the market’s Megacaps and leaders to give you a broad market perspective. This constant focus allows you to catch the capital rotation before the crowd does and pinpoint the perfect time to enter.

We Cover:

• Indices: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• Majors: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX

• ETFs & Commodities: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Crypto: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR

• Leveraged: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Ensure you have the right tools to navigate the current market.

Interested in a different set of names, such as SHOP, ORCL, or TSM? Paid subscribers can suggest analysis for up to 5 specific stocks each weekend, receiving custom modeled levels for the week ahead in the paid subscribers chat!

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Below is the guide on how to read the Friday Support and Resistance Levels. Note that I include a group of leveraged ETFs specifically for high-conviction moments.

Let’s continue.

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Some traders assume new highs are always bullish, even for breadth indicators, but that’s simply not the case. We warned about this last Saturday with specific charts in the Weekly Compass.

The Power of Preparation

Out of the setups we analyzed last weekend, 14 were bearish. As I mentioned then, a breach of the Central Weekly Level for the SPX was likely, in that case triggering a broad move lower with the biggest index. Those 14 bearish setups were a warning that individual names from different industries were signaling turbulence ahead.

Regarding our preferred bearish setups, NDX and AAPL reached their extended bearish targets ($24,949.2 / -2.3% and $246.1 / -3.7% respectively), while GOOG exceeded its bearish target of $323.5 (-2.1%) before bouncing. Although PLTR and TSLA were not on my top list, they were presented with their bearish setups and moved as expected, hitting their targets of $162.0 (-5.2%) and $421.9 (-3.6%) before attempting a bounce.

Even in this bloodbath, strength stands out. COST has been a favorite of mine for weeks; it’s up another 2% this week despite the market turbulence. That is the power of a high-conviction setup.

We maintain a permanent, disciplined watch over the specific securities with high volume and from different sectors. This allows you to spot capital rotation early moving your money from a stalling sector into the next leader and refine your entry timing with precision while others are still scanning for ideas. Our Core Watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

While I highlight the highest-probability setups from this list every weekend, all of them are covered in our Momentum Map and Weekly Setups. This publication serves as a strategic guide based on professional analysis, but it also gives you the space to think critically and make informed decisions when choosing your own setups.

Whether you want to improve your trading performance, master technical analysis, understand fundamentals, or get custom support and resistance levels for your preferred securities, this publication is for you. Upgrade now!

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Today’s Agenda:

• Setup Blueprint & Risk Management: A fresh look at how to manage high-probability setups. I’ll show you why I post coordinates for our entire watchlist—giving you clear entries, targets, and invalidation levels.

• Setups Q&A: How to manage them in premarket? What happens if the price is below the CWL for bullish setups and vice-versa? How to scale the S/R levels?

• High-Alert Charts: Technical conditions on several names suggest we need to be on high watch for reversals.

• Netflix (NFLX) Earnings & Technicals: This stock has been hammered for months. As I noted last weekend, I doubted a further 10% drop was likely. Today, we saw an “Extreme Reversal Setup” that is a must-study.

• Deep Dive Visuals: Updated charts for SPX, NDX, VIX, Bitcoin, AAPL, TSLA, NFLX, COST, and AVGO.

My eBooks on Essential and Advanced Technical Indicators are linked below after the SPX analysis. Subscribe now and level up your trading!

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Let’s begin

SPX - This Timeframe is Useful in Choppy Markets:

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For three months now, the Weekly Compass has consistently delivered high-probability setups. Despite this week’s volatility, several assets have already hit the levels we modeled last weekend: COST (+2.8%), Ethereum (+9.2%), and AVGO, which reached its bounce target of +2.8% before retracing. We also accurately anticipated pullbacks, such as JPM, which is down -6.5% so far. Furthermore, the bullish Bitcoin call sent to paid subscribers on Saturday has already resulted in a +7.6% rally.

Today, we are taking a special approach for the market update by studying the “Anatomy of a Trade.” This deep dive ensures we continue using the actionable insights and high accuracy while prioritizing capital protection through precise stop-loss references.

One single trade can pay for the $49 monthly subscription, or the $499 annual.

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The anatomy of a trade refers to the complete structure and components that make up a professional, high-quality trading decision from the idea generation to execution, management, and review.

Professional traders (whether day, swing, or position) treat every trade like a mini-project with clearly defined parts rather than just “seeing something and clicking buy.”

Here are the most common and important elements that typically make up the full anatomy of a high-probability trade/setup:

1. Market Context / Big Picture (The Foundation)

• Overall market regime (trending / ranging / volatile / low-vol)

• Higher timeframe bias (daily/weekly/monthly trend direction)

• Sector / relative strength analysis

• Macro/news overlay (rates, economic calendar, sentiment)

Without favorable context, even the prettiest pattern usually fails.

The first logical question to ask today is: What is the current Market Context? You’ll find the answer in this special study, where we defined bullish targets for 2026 using objective criteria for the SPX and NDX. Click here for access:

2. Technical Setup / Pattern / Confluence (The Edge)

The actual visual/chart-based reason to consider the trade.
Common high-quality confluences include:

• Structure: Higher highs/lows

• Key levels: Previous swing high/low, weekly/monthly S/R

• Price action: Engulfing, inside candle, shooting star, doji.

• Indicators: Moving Averages, Bollinger Bands, Volume profile, RSI divergence

The more legitimate confluences (3 to 5+), the higher the quality.

3. Trade Thesis / Narrative (The “Why”)

Clear reason why there is an expected directional move. Examples:

• Breakout after consolidation, volume shelf acting as a launchpad

• Bullish crossovers, price at critical supports and oversold conditions

• Reversal setups validated by volume

• Mean reversion after extreme RSI divergence in strong uptrend

• Bullish / bearish continuation after strong breakup / breakdown breaching key levels

If you can’t explain it clearly, skip the trade.

The second logical question is: What is our thesis for the coming week? What are the Setups? I dive deep into these strategies in the Weekly Compass. Published every Saturday, this report provides the updated roadmap you need for the week ahead. This is the latest one:

Every Weekend the U.S. indices, Megacaps, Crypto, Metals, Volatility and breadth indicators are analyzed making the individual case for our constant watchlist of securities with high market capitalization (TSLA, NVDA, AAPL, JPM, COST, WMT, LLY, SPY, QQQ, BTC, ETH, SLV, GLD and over 20 charts).

4. Precise Entry Trigger (The “When”)

• Not just “near the level” a specific confirmation

• Common triggers:

  • Staying above a specific level (CWL or CML in our approach)

  • Break & close above/below key level (what I call “the trigger”)

  • Retest + rejection (wick + strong close)

  • Momentum candle / displacement

  • Volume surge

Our high-probability setups are built around technical analysis and a specific Central Weekly Level. For a bullish outlook, the price must remain above this level; for a bearish outlook, it must stay below. This level is anticipated every week to effectively frame the upcoming price action and giving you time to prepare your trades while the market is closed.

Let’s study COST. After breaking out from oversold conditions last week, the price action signaled a bullish continuation (as noted in the latest Weekly Compass considering additional indicators) with a target of $950.8 (+2.8%). Since the price held above the $905.8 Central Weekly Level (CWL), the bullish path was clear by Monday morning. Today, a trader might choose to lock in gains at the target or navigate the move by trailing their stop higher. The daily timeframe now reaching overbought levels relative to the Bollinger bands and the Stochastic oscillator suggests some consolidation. Not to mention the precision of our target set before the week started!

The strength of the Weekly Compass lies in this directional clarity; because every security is assigned a specific bias, setups can often be navigated over multiple weeks, much like our recent run with LLY. Share this with more people!

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Next, let’s analyze the JPM setup. The Weekly Compass called it as bearish last Saturday. Note the precision of the selloff following Friday’s daily shooting star candle and the subsequent loss of the $324 Central Weekly Level (CWL). Paid subscribers have had access to this level for JPM and 44 other securities since last Friday.

When price opened below the CWL on Monday, it validated a high-conviction short position. (As a reminder: investors can profit from downward moves through shorting just as they do from upward moves through long positions). JPM hit our initial targets of $323, $317.7, and $310.8 in rapid succession. When a level is breached with such conviction, you can navigate the move by trailing your stops lower, using the “support-turned-resistance” levels as a guide. Alternatively, you can lock in gains, which was the optimal strategy for AVGO, a case that provided a warning we will study next. Today JPM has reached oversold levels with an indecisive candle validated by high volume after a fantastic -6.5% weekly move that subscribers could monetize via shorting the stock or via put options. A technical bounce is likely here from the Point of Control of the Volume Shelf.

5. Defined Risk → Stop Loss Location (The Hard Part)

• Where the thesis is invalidated

• Fixed % risk per trade (0.3–2% of account most common among pros)

• We use the CWL as first sign of invalidation when it is breached, and then the CML as a major signal of trend change (for bulls and bears).

AVGO was another stock with a high probability setup called on Saturday. The CWL of $343.5 was conquered on Monday morning suggesting a clean entry, by Tuesday the target was reached, securing a 3.3% gain. The chart shows a bearish daily shooting star candle that suggested exhaustion and a likely reversal considering the confluence of resistance levels, starting from our target, the upper Bollinger band, and the volume shelf. Locking gains was wise, the recent selloff is not a technical surprise, and considering the breach of $343.5, there is an invalidation of the bullish setup for now, but we made a decent 3.3% gain.

We will continue analyzing the Anatomy of a Trade with setups for TSLA, AAPL, AMD, and the latest Ethereum/Crypto breakout, plus a complete analysis of the SPX based on today’s close.

Upgrade today and unlock high probability setups every week, and receive my exclusive eBook on advanced technical indicators in your welcome email. I’ll walk you through Volume Profile, S/R levels, ROC, and the other tools used in our premium content.

What do you gain subscribing? A definitive technical edge. You’ll receive early access to setups for over 20 securities, each analyzed with a custom-tailored approach. Drawing from 10 years of experience, I select the most effective indicators for each specific chart to provide a clear map of potential gains and enhance your investment decisions. We provide actionable coordinates designed for both active intraday traders and 9-to-5 professionals who need clear, set-and-forget levels for the day ahead. Upgrade now!

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6. Reward / Target / Exit Plan (The Payoff)

• Multiple targets common (scaling out)

  • 1:2, 1:3, 1:5+ R:R minimum for most pros

  • You receive different layers of bullish and bearish targets to anticipate potential reversals and to navigate momentum if they’re breached.

  • They are included in every chart of the Weekly Compass at the left, and provided in advanced every Friday.

  • You’re reading this as a premium subscriber, every Friday you receive this publication:

  • They allow to measure moves in advance, of course, the technical analysis is essential to consider the price direction.

  • They can be used as a trailing method

• When NOT to move stop to breakeven too early

The last set of high probability setups highlighted NFLX and META in grey (also TSLA), my point here is how much can you make versus how much can you lose? The case for META is tight but it’s a good example: The setup is mostly bullish but weak (hence not highlighted in black), a trader can make 2.2% gain considering the next resistance level, while setting a stop slightly below $651.4 (remember, never at the same level; algorithms can visit these levels and bounce).

META went south, so for a person who liked the chart the risk was low versus the reward (essentially it is a 10:1 trade), while COST provided a higher risk (1:1 almost), but I picked it because the chart presented a impulsive move.

Similar case of COST happened with Ethereum and Bitcoin, in those cases the bullish thesis was considered based on the weekly charts indicating a bounce was brewing, and the series of higher lows, which as of now they continue playing out along with the 20 Daily moving average.

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I launched this curated feature in November to filter the best opportunities among the 30+ securities with high market capitalization we constantly analyze considering technical indicators and S/R levels (Indices, ETFs, Megacaps, Metals, and Crypto). The consistent success rate is 76%!

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The strategic benefits of maintaining a specific, constant watchlist include:

• Mastery of Asset Personality: Every stock has a unique behavioral signature. By tracking the same assets regularly, we recognize their specific recurring patterns and volatility ranges, significantly improving predictability.

• Capturing Rotations: When money flows out of Tech and into Retail or Financials, our watchlist captures that capital rotation immediately.

• Fundamental Conviction: We understand the fundamental drivers behind the charts, giving us the conviction to hold through noise or exit when the thesis breaks.

Let me see the Fundamental Lybrary

• Institutional Liquidity: These are high-volume, institutional-grade assets. Unlike small-caps, where low liquidity can cause slippage and skipped stop-losses. These securities allow for instant execution. You can enter and exit sizable positions without fear of being trapped in a squeeze or a flash crash.

• Antidote to FOMO: A fixed list prevents you from chasing unpredictable, low-liquidity small caps in hopes of a lucky double digit spike. If you are seeking aggressive acceleration, you can use leverage. By utilizing leveraged ETFs or the options market on these high-volume Mega Caps or Index ETFs, you can achieve significant percentage returns while trading stable, institutional-grade assets.

These two publications are a good for today’s study of the high probability setups posted on Saturday, unlock the content with the paid plan:

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High Probability Setups Update

As discussed over the weekend, we are entering an expected period of consolidation. While the VIX signaled a potential spike, the week began with bullish momentum as anticipated. Let's review the latest market updates alongside the charts. Ultimately, news headlines often serve as the catalysts that drive price in the direction already suggested by the technical setup.

Defense and Energy Stocks Drag Markets Lower Despite Tech Resilience

The Dow Jones declined -0.94% and the S&P 500 pulled back -0.34%, despite the latter briefly touching a record intraday high that matched our $6,963 level with precision. The session’s weakness stemmed primarily from a sharp selloff in defense stocks after President Trump announced via Truth Social that he would prohibit dividends and stock buybacks for defense contractors until production delays and executive compensation issues are addressed. The unexpected policy announcement sent shockwaves through the sector, with Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin each tumbling roughly 5% and pulling the broader industrials sector XLI down -1.9%.

The news simply served as a trigger for an overbought condition. The LMT chart is a textbook example of this, showing a shooting star pattern printed above the Bollinger Band, validated by strong daily volume and an RSI reading above 70. This technical setup suggests the news merely provided a catalyst for a healthy pullback that was already highly probable. Once the price returns to the Bollinger range there can be bullish continuation.

Energy stocks compounded the market’s losses, declining 1.2% as crude oil futures fell 2.0% to settle at $55.99 per barrel. The weakness followed President Trump’s disclosure of a deal securing 30 to 50 million barrels of oil from Venezuela, a supply agreement designed to ease price pressures. Meanwhile, healthcare provided a bright spot, surging 1.0% on M&A activity. Eli Lilly and AbbVie each climbed over 4% following reports of their respective acquisitions of Ventyx Biosciences and Revolution Medicines. Technology stocks delivered mixed results: strong gains in Alphabet (+2.5%) and Nvidia (+1.0%) helped keep the Nasdaq 100 flat 0.06%.

When observing the technical chart for XLE (energy sector ETF), the bearish candle printed on Monday above the Bollinger Band and validated by high volume offered a reasonable anticipation of a pullback. Sector ETFs typically respect technical indicators, and these overbought conditions usually lead to a reversal. If you see the charts for CVX and XOM, they are identical to this one below.

Point taken: technical analysis helps us anticipate how vulnerable an asset or index may be to news events. With that insight in mind, let's proceed to the updates on our current High-Probability Setups.

Today’s agenda:

• DIA

• JPM

• TSLA

• AAPL

• BTC

• IBIT

• ETH

• VIX

• NDX

• SPX

Let's continue: Unlock all the analysis by upgrading to a paid subscription. The profit from just one successful trade can easily cover the monthly, and even the annual, cost of the subscription.

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DIA

The Dow Jones ETF was marked in the Weekly Compass las “Long” or buy with $483.0 as the invalidation level for the bullish setup highlighted based on technical indicators, with $487 as immediate target followed by $491 and $496. The bullish move was impulsive last week and continuation was likely despite of the geopolitical news during the weekend. As you see the first target was reached and surpassed with conviction on Monday, the upper Bollinger band was touched but not breached, bullish continuation was likely as on Tuesday considering price action, but that day the band was breached, raising alarms. Today, the price opened with a gap and above the Bollinger band, touched $496 with impressive precision and reversed.

When a resistance is surpassed it can become the new reference for a stop loss, and when a resistance rejects the price while the price action is above the daily Bollinger band, there are good references to lock profits. Solid 2.6% move, 7.8% if using UDOW (x3), and for the options users, much more.

JPM

I mentioned in the Weekly Compass the possibilities for a bull flag, and that’s what happened; technical indicators and price action indicated bullish continuation, support and resistance levels helped us to assess potential destinations.

In this case the third resistance was reached on day one and reversed quickly, on Tuesday the bullish move consolidated but found the same rejection. We have studied that rallies at the beginning of the week must be assessed carefully when the market is in a mature stage. Today’s decline is a validation of a potential evening star formation. The high probability setup reached with conviction the third layer with a 3.1% gain, 6.2% with the leveraged 2x ETF JPX, or much more with options.

Remember, having the levels is one part of the equation, a correct technical interpretation gives you the directional expectation. I provide that professional reading considering the indicator that better explains the price action and the security. There is not a single golden indicator.

TSLA

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Over the past three weeks, the high probability trades have performed with a high level of accuracy. These setups always include a target price and an invalidation level which, in most cases, is the Central Weekly Level (CWL).

The purpose of posting targets is to establish an objective metric based on price action. This gives you an edge in anticipating potential reversals, which is why targets are placed at these specific zones.

Take this week, for example. The Weekly Compass anticipated a bullish move for BRK.B, targeting $505.4 for a 1.2% upside. Price reached that level as early as Monday afternoon but retraced quickly on Tuesday. This illustrates the importance of using levels: once a target is reached, it becomes new support. If that support is breached (as happened on Tuesday), profits should be locked in.

Why set the new level conquered as a stop? Because price can continue running. This occurred with LLY, which targeted $1,047 (1.9% upside) but extended to $1,066.5 for a 3.8% rally on Monday. Notably, $1,065.5 was one of the key levels provided on the S/R levels and in the Weekly Compass; after hitting that milestone, the price reversed sharply. Premium subscribers, however, had full visibility of the layers above the initial target. Below is a segment of the chart from the Weekly Compass, with the key levels listed on the left:

Conversely, IWM was a high-probability bearish setup. The price successfully dropped to $249.9 (-1.6% decline), and as that level breached, it is now aiming for the next support at $245. Below is a segment of the chart from the Weekly Compass, with the key levels listed on the left:

While these three forecasts hit their targets, not every setup plays out. PLTR, for instance, had a bullish setup targeting $190, price action was bullish on Monday but the momentum faded. In this scenario, the CWL served as the clear invalidation reference, signaling an exit when $183.9 was lost and protecting capital from the recent selloff.

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Today, we examine how to effectively execute high-probability setups alongside S/R levels.

This approach has recently yielded strong results, with a bullish setup on TSLA exceeding its target and bearish calls on NVDA and AMD paying off well.

This review is timely, as we are upgrading the Weekly Compass this Saturday to consolidate all setups into a single, unified view. Consider this publication your guide to mastering these tools. Remember: Having the levels is only half the battle; you must apply technical analysis to assess whether a reversal or consolidation is likely.

Today’s Case Studies: TSLA, PLTR, IWM, NVDA, NFLX, COST, BRK.B, AMD, LLY, and of course, SPX (7 out of those 10 reached their targets for a 70% accuracy level).

🎯 TSLA - Bullish Setup Reaching the Second Target

We studied the technical indicators that anticipated a bullish move, this is the segment of the chart that considered $469 (+2.3%) and also $480.2 (+4.6%), this is a way to play the levels:

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The financial world has witnessed a rare phenomenon: the Federal Reserve cut interest rates while the S&P 500 hovered within 1% of an all-time high. This marks the third such occurrence in the latter half of 2025 alone, following similar moves in September and October. While rate cuts are traditionally viewed as emergency medicine for a struggling economy, this pattern represents an “insurance cut”, a strategic attempt to prolong an expansion rather than fight a recession. When the Fed eases into strength, it fundamentally alters market mechanics, signaling a desire to keep the party going rather than cleaning up a mess.

In today’s publication we will cover the following topics:

• What to expect for the SPX, NDX, and Bitcoin? An update following the latest Market Intelligence edition (click here) where I covered the price targets for SPX and NDX in 2026 based on the current price structure.

• Status of the high probability trades posted in the Weekly Compass The recent setups considered: bullish continuation in PLTR (+3.6% for the week), bounce for MSTR (+4.3% so far for the week), shorts like LLY (-1.6% so far), WMT (-1.7%), and other setups brewing. I have mentioned my bullish positions for Bitcoin (+3.5%), and other setups like IWM that you can unlock upgrading your subscription (some moves may have been completed).

• Managing S/R levels as targets After the third week of posting high probability setups, let’s elaborate on how to use them for new premium subscribers.

Unlock the High Probability Trades!

This publication consistently analyzes the following securities to provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

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Let’s continue,

Investors anticipating an immediate, vertical rally should manage risk carefully, as the short-term reaction to these cuts can be turbulent. We saw this play out recently following the October 29, 2025 cut, which triggered a ‘sell the news’ event and a subsequent drift lower, ultimately resulting in the expected -5% pullback (reaching -5.5% precisely). While today’s reaction was bullish—driven largely by medium-term expectations—we will analyze the current price structure below to help you manage risk if you decide to chase this move. Those who bought during the 5.5% pullback following our November 22nd call (click here for the publication) now have a cushion and are better positioned to navigate any incoming volatility.

What to Expect Today?

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In August and September, I posted special analyses regarding the rare instances when the SPX and NDX staged a V-shaped recovery. Back then, premium subscribers saw how -5% pullbacks played out for the SPX and -7% on average for the Nasdaq. While the timing of such pullbacks has varied over the decades, today we will study the current market situation and price targets for both the NDX and SPX using updated charts.

The V-shaped recovery was not entirely a surprise, since in April several rare bullish signals were triggered, and all of them were analyzed in this publication, setting a bullish view for the market since then.

This is a must-read publication for investors and traders, not only for the medium-term outlook but also for understanding the momentum currently driving the market. Knowing whether the market is bullish or bearish adds confidence to swing and short-term trades, allowing for greater acceleration in strong setups.

The analysis today includes charts for the SPX and NDX, with their price targets.

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Remember to visit my complete Market Intelligence and Educational Library. It remains my most-read resource because it provides a clear roadmap for anyone wanting to navigate the stock market and crypto space.

Upgrade your subscription to the paid plan, the Weekly Compass has more tools for you, and today’s study is a must read for the medium and long term.

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In today’s financial landscape, the air is thick with debate: are we witnessing bubbles in Bitcoin, technology, and metals, or is this simply the new normal of price discovery? While pundits argue over valuations, the reality for the smart investor is that the binary choice between “bubble” or “growth” is often a distraction. Ultimately, successful trad…

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Over the past several months, paid subscribers have seen the value of analyzing technical indicators adding support and resistance levels. Each weekend, I publish over 40+ charts with in-depth technical analysis, carefully selecting the most relevant indicators and timeframes for each security. This publication covers a wide range of securities, allowin…

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Since the second quarter of this year, the price action for the S&P 500 has presented a series of rare bullish signals, unfolding in a manner seen very few times over the last decades. Such events include a breadth thrust signal, two 90% up days on the NYSE, and the V-shaped recovery since April; a phenomenon observed recently in 2020, less recently in 2009, and in a few other years already studied in this Market Intelligence section. Each of these is a significant, rare bullish signal that individually provides statistical references for months of bullish momentum, which is precisely what we have seen.

Today, we will study the Nasdaq 100 following a major milestone: a 50% bounce from the April 7th bottom. This milestone has historically brought market turbulence, and we will examine the common technical patterns that often follow. Remember: while charts do not repeat exactly, technical patterns do, and as proved with previous events, this roadmap will aid your navigation of the market.

Currently, the Volatility Index is above 20, and the central weekly level of $24,541 for NDX has been visited every day this week, even breached on Tuesday. This mirrors the action in the SPX around its central level of $6,622.

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This is a comprehensive study of 11 historical occurrences since 1970 when the Nasdaq achieved a 50% rally from a bottom without a significant pullback, and what happened immediately afterward. This approach, which combines statistics and technical patterns, has worked very well to anticipate the current rally. Now, at a more mature stage of the bull cycle, we will learn what is likely to happen next. Let’s remember we still have the halo of a weekly bearish engulfing candle in the SPX and NDX, and we have learned that weekly setups remain active until the stock market closes at Friday 4 PM New York Time.

This may be the most important market study for October, providing objective charts, easy to read metrics, and conclusions based on numbers and technicals. This is the same approach used to assess the high odds of a bull market back in April 2025. A must read analysis.

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Nasdaq - What’s Next?

All of my analyses have the S&P 500 (SPX) as their core for two reasons: it is the most common and broad index, and it provides significant history data. Today, the analysis will focus on the Nasdaq, since many of us have exposure to technology stocks, and tech has been the primary driver of this bull market.

The following charts present a visual summary of the market’s behavior across different years, highlighting the common patterns we should watch and anticipate:

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Yesterday, the main indices of the stock market found support at the week’s specific central levels modeled last Friday: the SPX bounced at $6,702, the NDX reversed just shy of $24,749, and the IWM momentarily breached $244.4 before rebounding. All three of these levels acted as support once again before the market bounced today.

Since the market bounced from the specific central levels with precision, I decided to elaborate on the relevance of those levels, last Friday you saw the SPX chart with the central weekly level and how useful that line has been every week to keep us apart from premature decisions. Today we will study the central weekly level and the immediate bearish target for the week (both part of the seven layers of price modeled every Friday), for QQQ, TSLA, and NVDA.

The stock market update is below this educational piece.

Support and Resistance Levels

Trading and investing is essentially about analyzing the probability of a price move using technical indicators while maintaining confidence in the underlying fundamentals. That approach is enhanced when support and resistance levels are used to validate bearish or bullish setups, and during these days, we’re in defensive mode in case of a pullback comes based on how overheated the indices are.

The following SPX chart was published last Sunday in the Weekly Compass, and apart from the overbought RSI and bearish divergence with the oscillator (both conditions that have anticipated a pullback in the recent past as highlighted), the chart showed at the top left a set of support and resistance levels. $6,702 is underlined since it is the central weekly level, the line that is modeled every weekend ahead of the new week, and that level is the one that makes a difference between bullish and bearish momentum.

The central Weekly Levels since April:

The blue line is the central weekly level, and in this case, the support line that follows, also mentioned in the Weekly Compass as “Immediate bearish target” is included in gray. From the chart there are two conclusions about using the central weekly level:

1. It has been breached very few times during this rally, providing validation of bearish setups. However, the character of this bull market is special considering not one, nor two, nor three, but four very rare bullish signals that have occurred since April, all of them have been documented individually for premium subscribers (links below).

2. When the central level is mastered with discipline, it can help a swing trader or investor to outperform a buy and hold strategy, in the case of SPX a couple of points, but we will study for TSLA and NVDA that it can enhance performance in a larger way.

The Major Bullish Signals are:

• Up Day in the NYSE on April 9th

• Breadth Thrust on April 24th

• Second Up day in the NYSE

• Rare V-shaped recoveries

The last link of the list has a very clear measurement of where we are in the current bull market. For new subscribers, I base my analysis in a comprehensive study of historical charts.

The Central Weekly Level in Other Securities

Using support and resistance levels is a critical strategy for managing risk and achieving safer trade entries. Support levels act as a floor where a stock’s price tends to stop falling due to buying interest, while resistance levels serve as a ceiling where selling pressure often prevents further rises.

By identifying these levels, traders can set clear entry points once the central weekly level is recovered, and exit points when it is breached, reducing the risk of entering or exiting at unfavorable prices. Remember that any support line can be temporarily breached, for that reason any stop loss can be set below that line, colored with blue in today’s charts. How lower should a stop be set? That depends on the risk aversion of each person, we will study with TSLA and NVDA using the bearish weekly target as line in the sand, the result is quite interesting.

QQQ

When analyzing this ETF, the validation power is the same as for the SPX, and in this case the central level can work well to time entries. However, the dips have been bought so quickly since April, so the exercise of gaining five additional points in gains (30% versus 24.8%) can be reached in an easier way with a leveraged ETF when there is conviction about a bull market.

Important note: If you haven’t bought and sold using central levels or you haven’t used leveraged ETFs (TQQQ, SSO, UDOW, etc), you should paper-trade before doing that with real money. Why paper-trade? The charts do not capture the news, the social media, nor the futures or extended market hours; when you manage your emotions considering those aspects, and you perform well, you’re in a better condition to swing.

Better Performance in Volatile Securities

The analysis for TSLA, another security that is analyzed every week along with more than 40 securities, shows an interesting case considering three conclusions:

1. The central weekly level serves to validate bullish or bearish setups for this security, similar to its function for the SPX and QQQ.

2. The disciplined approach (buying when the price is above this level and selling when it’s breached), performs significantly better here than for the major indices. The improvement is approximately 15 percentage points. This figure is conservative, as I’ve already adjusted the difference downward to build in a comfortable cushion.

3. Trading and performance is not about perfection, it’s about following the process, since the levels are modeled every week and there are gaps or rapid moves that bring volatility to price. You can see some “Sell” and “Buy” signals that are highlighted in yellow; those cases show selling below the buy point, and buys above the previous sell point.

This publication consistently analyzes the following securities to provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

This publication has the weekly and monthly levels for those securities, unlock this golden tool that has proven effective to navigate this bull market.

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Let’s continue:

There is an interesting finding that works for the SPX, QQQ, TSLA, and NVDA, see below how the performance of using the levels jump from 83% to 97% for TSLA:

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The highly anticipated rate cut finally occurred, but the market's reaction was muted for the major indices suggesting the positive news was already priced in. As usual, the Fed's announcement triggered intraday volatility, sending the S&P 500 (SPX) directly to our central weekly level of $6,555 before an immediate bounce. Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) found support exactly at the $23,975 zone, which was anticipated last Saturday as the line in the sand dividing bullish and bearish momentum.

Several key ETFs also bounced today with impressive accuracy and synchrony from their central weekly levels:

• SPY from $654

• QQQ from $583

• DIA from $458.4

• SMH from $301.6

• GLD from $335 (as one of the levels on sight)

• IWM from $238.2 (it briefly breached this level for a couple of minutes before bouncing)

That said, there is no confirmation of a pullback just yet, and staying disciplined is key to avoiding any premature decisions. It's worth noting that the VIX retraced by 3% but it’s still above the key level mentioned last Saturday.

The major indices are still above their central weekly levels, as are half of the biggest mega-caps in the top 11 of the SPX. However, some securities, like NVDA, lost their $174.9 level, as AVGO $356.6, which suggests caution for the semiconductor sector.

The levels mentioned were published last Friday, ahead of this week's trading. As mentioned, having these levels in advance is a fantastic tool for traders and investors. To see the most recent publications, use the links below:

• Stealth Ahead of Rate Decision (Weekly Compass)

• Rare Technical Signal (Support and Resistance Levels)

Last Friday, I mentioned a rare technical condition in the stock market. As promised, we'll study that condition today. This is a technical publication designed to help you navigate the next three months psychologically. Make sure to upgrade your subscription and unlock the answers to the following questions:

• Are we at or near the top of the bull market?

• What stage of the bull market are we in?

• If there's a pullback, how deep could it be?

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This content is based on pure technical metrics and historical patterns that have proven reliable in previous similar rare conditions, having occurred in every case over the last 50 years in the stock market. The conclusions are objective and are not based on personal opinions. This is a must-read publication.

For the ones who haven’t downloaded the first section of my eBook, please do, and stay tuned, every week a section will be added:

Smartreversals Ebook Part 1 Section 1 Candlesticks

1.11MB ∙ PDF file

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Let’s begin:

Over the last several months, I have published editions with this same approach: analyzing rare technical conditions and the patterns that followed them. As every premium subscriber can confirm, the bullish moves I anticipated have occurred, in some cases with impulsive moves that exceeded expectations. Back in April and May, all the signals were bullish, and in the midst of widespread market fear, every technical indicator suggested the beginning of a new bull market despite of several gaps below the price. We set targets of $6,486 for the SPX and $23,654 for the NDX, both of which were reached in a rapid fashion and acted as resistances during the last three or four weeks before being conquered the last one, along with targets for MSFT, PLTR, GOOG, and many other securities analyzed in this publication.

The rare signal or technical condition I mentioned last Friday is based on the current stage of the market, which considers the following:

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