AI's Two-Speed Economy
Infrastructure Giants Spend Big While Application Winners Cash In - Fundamental Analysis for GOOG, PLTR, LLY, and AMZN.
Amid the volatility of February 2026, a clear divergence has emerged between the architects of the AI era and its most potent beneficiaries. Amazon and Alphabet have escalated the infrastructure arms race to unprecedented levels, pledging a combined capital expenditure approaching $385 billion for 2026 alone. This historic bet is already paying off in the cloud, where both Google Cloud and AWS posted meaningful acceleration in growth rates. Yet the sheer scale of this spending forces investors to weigh the promise of future dominance against the reality of immediate capital intensity.
Beyond the silicon and data centers, the winners of application and category dominance are separating themselves with remarkable speed. Palantir has effectively cornered the enterprise AI market, delivering explosive revenue growth fueled by a surge in U.S. commercial adoption that proves operational AI is no longer a concept but a requirement. Simultaneously, Eli Lilly has redefined the pharmaceutical landscape, riding its metabolic franchise to establish a commanding lead in one of the decade’s most lucrative markets.
As the market navigates this complex interplay of record spending and exponential growth, distinguishing between durable signals and noise is critical. We analyze how Amazon’s efficiency gains, Google’s Gemini integration, Palantir’s commercial scaling, and Lilly’s pipeline expansion will shape their trajectories. Discover the full fundamental breakdown below, as part of our disciplined approach of studying a constant list of megacaps, being aware of their financials, risks, opportunities and the general context behind the technical charts.
Navigating Precision Targets in a Choppy Tape 🎯
We are navigating another week of intense, choppy price action. The fact that several of my high-probability setups were validated and reached their targets in two days, only to reverse shortly after, is a testament to the current market environment. I have highlighted the power of individual names since November in a context where the S&P 500 is going nowhere. This is the individual performance of the setups anticipated in the weekly compass 🎯:
MSFT: I identified a bullish target of $423.8, representing a potential +7% move versus Friday. This target was reached precisely on Tuesday, followed by an immediate reversal. In this choppy market, I have consistently warned that if price action fails to hold above a resistance level, it is prudent to lock in gains. For those who executed the setup since Monday using the trigger ($408 as entry point), 5.7% was the gain before the quick retreat.
AVGO: This was one of the cleanest moves of the week. Posted on Friday afternoon, Broadcom rallied during Monday’s session to hit our $349.4 target, securing a 5% gain.
IWM: This was a successful bullish setup. Our target of $268 was hit Tuesday morning and revisited Wednesday before fading again.
GOOG: The bearish setup is playing out. Since my Friday post, the stock has moved lower toward our target. The current 3.64% move has been clean and consistent and can be considered successful given the dimension of the move.
PLTR: Our bearish outlook remains in progress. After an early attempt to recover its Central Weekly Level, the stock has turned lower. As a reminder, we maintain stop-losses above the central level for shorts and below it for longs. The bearish thesis remains.
TSLA: I highlighted during the weekend that I was picking just some of the setups of the blueprint considering the high volatility (VIX), while presenting other bullish setups like Tesla and Nvidia, currently the stock reached its $430 target for a +4.7% move.
NVDA: With a bullish target of $193.5 for a +4.3% move, this setup was presented in the blueprint and played out.
AMZN: Bearish as expected, similar to NFLX, Bitcoin, and Ethereum
COST and BRK.B faded their bullish moves and they are currently trying to recover their Central Weekly Level with indecisive candles.
Indices are trapped in a range, but the real moves are happening under the surface: Since November, the broad market has gone nowhere, yet individual setups continue to deliver. Upgrade to Premium to access my full weekend blueprint, featuring technical analysis and the exact price levels you need for targets and stop-losses across our entire watchlist. Don't trade the noise; trade the setups and modeled price levels.
Remember the three educational publications I posted during recent weeks about managing the high probability setups, upgrade your subscription and unlock this valuable guides:
Today’s agenda:
Fundamental Analysis for:
Amazon (AMZN)
Google (GOOG)
Palantir (PLTR)
Eli Lilly (LLY)
Stock Market Update
Technical observations and potential reversals
