The market just showed how fast a good headline can turn. META printed revenue growth strong enough to send the stock higher after hours, and yesterday for few hours it looked like a solid move, actually there was not a bearish print in the indices, they just didn’t show conviction at the close yesterday. The reaction faded based on META’s spending plan, with CapEx running at a pace that changes the free cash flow math. TSLA had a bearish reversal for the opposite reason, it cut its CapEx guide and the market read that as a delay in the AI buildout. I wrote yesterday that earnings reactions often print fake moves at first (mostly for TSLA and META), these two followed the script.
The selloff that came next went further than expected for the short term, but the only way to capture it was using the futures, when the ES=F lost our central weekly level of 7,754 at 9PM EST, and it spread across the tape.
The Weekly Compass had it on the map, what seemed an invalidation of the bearish case anticipated last Saturday ended confirmed in a single session, both the SPX and NDX lost their key levels and the bearish continuation is what played out. Weekly setups can trigger at any moment, which is why that timeframe is at the center of how I read the market, and the VIX breakout we've been studying with subscribers is the condition to keep in mind.
Today's edition goes one level deeper into the companies behind the move: a full fundamental analysis of META, TSLA, SPCX and NFLX, in a new format with a downloadable one pager for each name. You get the numbers, the bullish and bearish case, and my point of view for the short term, three months and one year. Upgrade to unlock it below.
It’s earnings season, and this one-pager is the best way to update out fundamental library. Subscribe and get access to these institutional-level documents that will be used during these season for our watchlist:
Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F
ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX
Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD
Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT
Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY
If you trade some of those securities, this publication is for you.
Today’s Agenda
The Most Important Chart of the Week
Fundamental Deep Dive on META, TSLA, SPCX, NFLX
Daily plan for SPX, ES=F
Daily and Weekly Levels Combined for SPX, ES=F, META, TSLA, SPCX, & Semis.
Watchlist Tracker
Let’s begin.