Capex Kings vs. Revenue Stars
The New Split Defining the 2026 Market - 80% Success so far in High Probability Setups
The 2026 market landscape is being redefined by a stark divergence between capital-intensive infrastructure builders and rapid-adoption software leaders. Meta Platforms and Microsoft have launched a historic capital arms race, with META guiding for up to $135 billion in 2026 capex to power its nuclear-backed “Prometheus” supercluster, while MSFT leverages a massive $250 billion cloud commitment from OpenAI to drive 39% Azure growth. Conversely, TSLA is funding its own $20 billion move into AI and robotics through record energy storage margins, effectively using its utility business to subsidize its next generation of growth.
Beyond the hardware layer, the winners in application deployment are emerging with startling velocity. Palantir has shattered expectations with a 70% revenue surge, fueled by U.S. enterprises aggressively operationalizing its AIP system. Simultaneously, AAPL has stunned skeptics with a 38% sales rebound in China, riding a supercycle driven by iPhone 17 demand and the strategic integration of Google Gemini. The market is no longer moving in unison; it is splitting into those building the engines of AI and those successfully selling the fuel.
To navigate this complex environment, investors need more than just headlines, they need the fundamental data that separates durable signals from noise. Discover the full breakdown of these critical developments, including detailed margin analysis and forward-looking risks, remember that you can visit all the fundamental library at Smartreversals.com in the fundamental analysis section.
80% Accuracy for this Week
Before we proceed, it is worth noting that the insights shared in the Weekly Compass and the S/R Levels publications are playing out with high precision. On Friday afternoon, I flagged solid bullish setups for JPM and BRK.B; they have rallied over +4% and +5% respectively this week. Conversely, my bearish outlook for SMH (-4.7% so far this week) and QQQ (-2.2%) has been validated.
In Saturday’s expanded analysis, I provided a blueprint for more high-probability setups. My bullish expectations for AAPL (so far over +6%) and WMT (+7%) are currently delivering strong results, reinforcing the importance of picking individual winners in a choppy market. On the bearish side, our setups for IBIT (Bitcoin) has also completed, with IBIT alone dropping -12%.
To date, 8 out of 10 high-probability setups posted this week, complete with specific price targets and invalidation points, have been accurate. Only one, META, was invalidated, while another remains a work in progress. This brings our weekly accuracy to 80%, maintaining a cumulative success rate of over 77% since November. This level of transparent, professional-grade price modeling makes a subscription a total no-brainer.
I am transparent about the technical indicators selected for each security showing the charts every week, a truly experienced trader knows exactly which tools to select for a specific setup.
Beyond indicators, I provide specific invalidation levels, primary targets, and extended targets (to trail stops or to lock profits). I also include educational material on how to trail your stops using these price levels as a tactical reference for your decision-making. Very important, I update the fundamental analysis every quarter, incorporating the latest earnings reports and our proprietary research.
So, let’s dive into the fundamental updates for key companies in our watchlist. This is the agenda for today:
TSLA
AAPL
MSFT
META
Conclusions & Market Observations regarding the current volatility
Let’s begin.
The Car Business Shrinks, but Tesla Spending Hits Record Highs
TSLA is aggressively migrating from its roots as an electric vehicle manufacturer to become a leader in artificial intelligence and robotics. While the automotive segment remains its primary revenue driver generating approximately $69.5 billion in 2025 despite a 10% year-over-year decline the company is strategically shifting focus toward high-margin growth areas like energy storage, autonomous driving, and humanoid robotics. The Energy Generation and Storage segment is expanding rapidly, with revenues rising 27% to nearly $12.8 billion in 2025, fueled by record deployments of its utility-scale Megapack and residential Powerwall systems. While the company faces volume pressures in its core automotive business, rapid expansion in its energy and services divisions helped drive fourth quarter results that exceeded analyst expectations. The company reported Q4 adjusted earnings per share of $0.50, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.45 despite a 17% year-over-year decline.
Tesla's future roadmap is defined by four pillars: