Decoding Megacap Strength and Price Direction
Fundamental deep dive for the Magnificent 7 that have posted earnings results - High probability setups update
The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) calmed market anxieties regarding potential interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, with fed fund futures reducing the probability of a September rate hike down to around 40%, one of the reasons for the bullish move today.
Appetite for technology and hardware infrastructure stocks saw a revival, SMCI soared +19% after reporting an EPS beat of 84% above estimates and raising its forward guidance. Cloud-computing platform CoreWeave (CRWV) also leaped +19.3% following stronger-than-expected sales results.
Semiconductors bounced, MU leading the move with a +5% rally. On the SPX side, our anticipated CDL acted as bullish above/bearish below reference, the price action moved in a narrow range between 7,737 and 7,758; both levels modeled yesterday for today’s session.
We study the daily levels for the SPX and now the E-mini futures every day as well, considering these overnight moves. Yesterday, I posted 7,762 as the central daily level for ES=F, with the next resistance zone at 7,787 in case a bullish move materialized. 7,794 was the effective top of the day today before the CPI data was released; since then, the futures have moved, testing 7,762 several times during the day.
The daily plan for the SPX and ES=F is below. They have both been moving in a narrow range during the last six trading days, with the futures testing a monthly resistance while the SPX tests a monthly level. Whichever index breaches its line first will provide clarity on the next major move.
High-Probability Trades:
It’s Wednesday, and several setups analyzed last Saturday have already reached their targets. I have been bullish on SpaceX (SPCX) based on clear technical reasons; the 142.8 bullish target (+7.3% versus last Friday’s close) has been surpassed (currently +9% this week 🎯). NFLX crossed its primary target and reversed at the extended one of 77 (+3.8%) 🎯. WMT crossed its bullish target of 114 (+2.6%) and has accumulated 3.7% so far this week 🎯. AMZN is bearish as expected, reaching its bearish target of 267.7 for a -2.5% move 🎯, and MSFT reversed to the bearish side as anticipated. Setups like V, GLD, DIA, and MSFT remain constructive in their directional moves aiming at their targets.
When the indices are choppy, the power of individual names is significant. We have navigated these types of markets, and this week has been no different.
Subscribe and unlock the Weekly Compass with the blueprint of setups for all the magnificent seven, indices, ETFs, and other megacaps.
Magnificent Seven - Fundamental Analysis and Price Targets 2026
It is time to study fundamentals. There is some noise on social media about a dot-com crash, with analysts talking about a bubble that is about to implode badly. Let’s begin a series of fundamental analyses, today with six of the Magnificent Seven, the ones that have posted earnings reports: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, TSLA, META, and AMZN.
My focus is on technicals and price action, and always on megacaps. Megacaps still offer double-digit rallies and selloffs that we have successfully navigated; they exist in the options market, and their daily volume ensures that buy or sell orders are filled quickly, allowing stops to be triggered effectively.
Today’s Content:
Fundamental analyses including business context, financial indicators 5-year evolution, and price targets combining fundamentals and annual levels for AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, TSLA, META, and AMZN.
Daily plan for SPX and ES=F.
Technical charts for the Magnificent 6 analyzed today, plus SPCX and WMT as main stocks breaking out as anticipated.
Daily levels for tomorrow: SPX, ES=F, and all the Magnificent Seven.
When you subscribe to SmartReversals, you receive three core publications every week. This includes weekly levels for a watchlist of megacaps, indices, and ETFs for the week ahead on Fridays, a technical immersion with setups on Saturdays, and market intelligence or fundamental analysis on Wednesdays. Additionally, you receive daily levels and brief posts every other day presenting the daily plan and levels for the SPX and ES=F.
Let’s begin,
Are fundamentals so weak that a major crash is coming? or are they strong enough that some pullbacks are suggesting buying opportunities?
