The stock market closed muted this week. The SPX finished flat (+0.1%) following an intra-week pullback that exceeded our bearish target of 7,642. By Thursday, weak economic data (ADP) and dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller (who noted he would support holding interest rates steady this month if incoming inflation numbers remain favorable) sparked a relief rally. However, as I highlighted last night in my daily note, key structural elements warranted skepticism regarding continuation for today.
To avoid premature moves, I rely on daily levels to validate each thesis. For today, 7,730 served as the anticipated central daily level (CDL) dictating bullish or bearish momentum. Once price broke below that level, it pushed directly into the confluence of the 7,704 daily level and the 7,707 central weekly level, where the index found support. Anyway the weekly structure lost momentum as we will analyze in the paid content.
Among the high-probability setups:
Every Saturday I post the strongest setups combining technical analysis and modeled support and resistance levels. These are the results for this week:
🎯 WMT reached 108 (+4% move).
🎯 SPCX reached 149 (+5.6% move).
🎯 SMH validated the bearish thesis by breaking 555 and moving toward 538 (-2% move); indecisive price action on the 4H and daily timeframes on Tuesday signaled a reversal was coming.
🎯 AAPL reached the extended bullish target of 330.5 (+3.5% move), after which the level triggered an institutional algorithmic rejection with precision.
🎯 IWM reached our bearish target of 292 and extended the move to 289 (-1.7% move).
🎯 SPY breached the bearish target of 762.5, securing a -1% move.
🎯 NFLX reached 83.1 (+1.7%).
❌ XOM opened the week above 159, invalidating the bearish thesis.
❌ AMZN: The central weekly level of 263 provided capital protection on Monday morning during regular market hours; price moved toward the bearish target of 250 before bouncing to fill the gap.
That represents 7 successful setups versus 2 invalidations for the week. The combination of technical indicators shared transparently in the Weekly Compass, paired with our modeled levels based on price action, multi-timeframe confluence, and key support and resistance zones, continues to prove effective even in choppy markets.
Unlock the levels, analysis, and setups for next week plus the daily updates by becoming a paid subscriber.
In this market, once a target level is reached, stop-losses (now functioning to lock in gains) should be trailed closer to current price action.
The setups blueprint published every week highlights my top picks. However, if you are trading a specific stock, index, or ETF, such as META, IBIT or TSLA, which are tickers that I mentioned favored a bullish move(In the case of TSLA for a gap fill only), you can still leverage the blueprint, it provides complete setups across our entire coverage watchlist:
Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F
ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX
Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD
Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT
Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY
The 4-hour chart shows how these levels work as reversal or consolidation zones; the lines posted here were modeled the previous Friday ahead of the week. Interestingly, the same pattern from last week is repeating today, and there is a gap below. The CWL for next week is below with all its support and resistance levels for the SPX, SPY, ES=F, and every security on our watchlist. If you trade TSLA, MSFT, IBIT, VXX, or another from the list above, the levels for those securities for next week and the month of September are here.
Today’s Content:
Weekly Levels for the Watchlist
Monthly Levels for the Watchlist
Combined Levels
Daily Plan for Monday (SPX and ES=F)
Let’s begin.
What You Get as a Paid Subscriber
When you upgrade to the paid plan, you unlock three core publications each week, along with exclusive member benefits:
→Wednesday: Market Intelligence and fundamental analyses.
→Friday: Support and Resistance Levels for the week ahead.
→Saturday: The Weekly Compass, featuring an in-depth technical immersion.
In addition to our weekly publishing schedule, your membership includes three immediate advantages:
→ Instant Ebook Access: Download my two foundational technical analysis ebooks directly from the Market Intelligence Library. (click here)
→Daily SPX & ES=F Levels: Receive daily levels assessing short-term momentum and potential reversal signals.
→Customized Level Modeling: Every Sunday, submit your watchlist stocks in the paid subscriber chat. Their specific institutional levels are modeled for the week ahead and published directly to the site.
All content is available at SmartReversals.com.
WEEKLY LEVELS
These levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.
For next week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August will be released, and its to be seen if reduction in oil prices have reduced the CPI.
Tickers highlighted in red like TSLA have a lot of work to do to flip bearish momentum, today’s move gained traction in many megacaps: