Over a month ago, I updated my SPX bullish target to 7,638, utilizing the annual line that has been included in my charts since the beginning of the year. On Wednesday, I highlighted that this target could be considered effectively reached when the market printed all-time highs at 7,620. Following today’s sharp sell-off, that analysis has proven remarkably accurate 🎯.
When I establish a target for a weekly, monthly, or annual timeframe, I rely strictly on technical indicators and support and resistance models mapped out well ahead of price action. As my paid subscribers know, this is not the first time an anticipated top has precisely triggered a major sell-off; the February 2025 top stands as another successful example.
Yesterday at 6:00 PM New York time, I sent a special alert to subscribers warning of a major reversal sign that was flashing in real time. It was not necessary to wait for today’s closing bell to recognize just how precarious and risky the conditions had become for technology.
In yesterday’s note, I identified the SPX Central Daily Level (CDL) at 7,566 as our key “bullish above / bearish below” zone. I also flagged the Central Weekly Level (CWL) at 7,559 as a critical threshold that, if breached, would trigger a significant decline. Overbought conditions in the SPX (and across the technology sector specifically) were extreme as highlighted in recent publications analyzing the weekly patterns. The velocity of today’s sell-off is consistent with the market losing that key confluence zone, not to mention the subsequent loss of the Central Monthly Level (CML).
Bears broke through three crucial structural levels today in the SPX. We saw the same breakdown occur in the NDX and QQQ, both of which closed the day with major bearish conviction.
In last Saturday’s Weekly Compass, I anticipated a bearish reversal for AAPL, SMH, IWM, and AMD; as a bullish reversal for VXX. When I forecast these structural turns, I do so using precise, actionable numbers: the Central Weekly Level. Those exact levels and their corresponding targets are updated here every Friday exclusively for paid subscribers.
Ahead of the upcoming Weekly Compass release, I have already modeled the preliminary downside destinations to consider for the SPX. Upgrade your subscription today to unlock the technical analysis and protect your capital for the week ahead.
These levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.
Our Core Watchlist: If you trade any of these securities, this publication is for you:
Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F
ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX
Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD
Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT
Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY
Today’s report also brings several red flags considering securities that lost their Central Monthly Level.