The U.S. stock indexes closed lower on Monday, August 31, 2026, as geopolitical tensions flared and oil prices surged. Despite the daily losses, both the SPX and the NDX secured winning months for August with +2.6% and +4.2% respectively.
Risk appetite came under pressure after U.S. forces conducted military strikes against Iranian rocket launchers along the Strait of Hormuz; the jump in crude prices reinforced fears of inflation, compounding the hawkish sentiment left behind by the Fed chair on Jackson Hole on Friday. Last Saturday we studied in the Weekly Compass the 57% probability for a rate hike this September, today the probability sits at 65%.
Since today is the end of the month, it’s time to update the monthly levels for September. That is our focus today. Let’s remember that the monthly levels are essential for both investors and traders, since they speak to a longer-term price structure; we have learned from March 2026 and 2025 how the price can be very volatile when that level is lost.
The monthly levels below are updated for our watchlist. If you invest or trade in some of these securities, this information is for you.
Our Core Watchlist:
Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F
ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX
Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD
Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT
Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY
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Today’s Content:
Monthly Levels
Daily Plan for the SPX and ES=F
Combined Levels for SPX, ES=F, AAPL, AMZN, TSLA, NVDA, META, GOOG, MSFT
Let’s begin.
MONTHLY LEVELS
The Dow Jones, Small Caps, and very important, the semiconductor sector are all showing weakness by the loss of this level, as seen in the red/blue column on the right of the table. The SPX and NDX are not too far above this key level.