Earnings season begins next week, and the stock market has shown resilience lately despite ongoing pressure from the bond market. The 10 year Treasury yield surged to a 24 year high of nearly 5.37% on Wednesday before settling near 5.25% by Friday’s close, continuing to test equity valuations. Meanwhile, the probability for an October rate hike sits just at 18%, which has helped temper extreme downside fears.
However, it is crucial to watch the reversal unfolding in semiconductors. In last Wednesday’s mid-week update, I documented that NVDA was setting up a bearish reversal. Sure enough, semiconductors, including NVDA -2%, MU -4.3%, AMD -4%, and TSM -4.1%, fell sharply and closed the week in negative territory. On the flip side, AVGO proved its strength as one of my key bullish calls last Saturday, holding the line to finish +1.8% for the week.
Price Action as the Purest Indicator
Why do these shifts happen? Institutional players possess vast information, and their footprints show up directly in price action. An intra-week reversal printing a shooting star reveals institutional distribution, that happened this week with the NDX after reversing at our monthly level of 31,201 in confluence with our weekly one at 31,190.
COST bottomed two weeks ago near to 881, a weekly level where institutional algorithms reacted printing afterwards a daily engulfing candle on Sep 25th, or TSLA bouncing exactly at 345 last week, that was the last line of support for the week (modeled here for paid subscribers), the price bounced off where institutional buy orders were stacked and a daily hammer candle was printed on Sep 30th. My bullish calls on those two paid off this week.
Price action is the purest, most real-time data we have. It forms reliable patterns that allow us to navigate markets with clarity. This week, my bullish setups with specific targets anticipated for AMZN 258.8 🎯 (+2.9%), AVGO 372.0 🎯 (+4.7%), GOOG 349.4 🎯 (+2.7%), TSLA 381.5 🎯 (+2.9%), COST 945.8 🎯 (+2.7%), and SPCX 169.2 🎯 (+6.4%) played out as the tape suggested. The institutional levels modeled every Friday provide a tangible edge to trade the market effectively.
As a reference point, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Triennial Survey, along with estimates from JP Morgan and Bloomberg, puts algorithmic trading at about 60% to 73% of US equity volume.
As we head into next week’s earnings kickoff, let’s examine the institutional footprints, review the setups, and track the critical levels.
I publish the complete set of weekly and monthly levels for my watchlist every Friday, and this Saturday’s publication provides the exact blueprint of which setups are bullish, which are bearish, and their precise price targets using the levels.
My Core Watchlist:
Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F
ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX
Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD
Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT
Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY
If you trade any of these tickers, this publication is built specifically for you, subscribe to the paid plan and unlock today’s charts, and the complete set of levels posted yesterday.
Levels for next week:
Subscribers also get access to educational content and Market Intelligence analyses.
Everything is available at smartreversals.com.
Today’s Agenda
Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.
Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.
Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.
Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for megacaps.
Let’s begin.