PLTR, and Geopolitics Fuel the Rally | AMD and SpaceX Face the Capex Wall
Macro Shifting Winds, Palantir's Record Run, and After-Hours Earnings Volatility for AMD and SpaceX
The SPX and the NDX continued their bullish move. The NDX validated the bullish setup studied in the Weekly Compass posted on Saturday, indicating that the weekly setup for the index could mark the beginning of a new bull leg and a strong start to the week.
The weekly setup provides directional guidance, and once that move gains traction, we navigate it using support and resistance levels. Both the SPX and NDX opened the week above their central weekly levels, validating the bullish thesis. For the SPX, clearing 7,563 on Monday served as the first bullish checkpoint modeled since Friday. For the NDX, clearing 28,862 (along with 754 for SPY and 702 for QQQ) printed clear conviction for both indices.
I highlighted a couple of elements yesterday in this daily note after the market closed for paid subscribers:
AMZN was likely to retrace given its overextension, and the stock fell 2.3% today.
SMH needed to hold the line by staying above its central weekly level of 537.
Today, the setup printed continuation. We navigate the move using weekly levels to track momentum and daily levels to identify early signals of reversals. The SPX needed to stay above 7,571.8 as its central daily level. With that condition met, the next bullish layers where institutional algorithms were likely to react were 7,638 (which was essentially conquered at the open), 7,677 (easily passed with conviction at 10:45 AM), and 7,744, where the market closed the session to print new all-time highs.
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Two major drivers fueled today’s bullish setup:
First, PLTR. The stock was flagged as bullish last week in the Weekly Compass after recovering its central weekly level of 124, and the rest is history. We simply manage the combination of directional indication and set a stop using 124 as a reference (remember, stops are set below the level for longs and above the level for shorts). The fundamental picture was summarized in yesterday’s note, and the 29% move today was impressive, fueling the broader market and a software industry that has been showing strong bullish intent (with MSFT being another stock tracked in our regular watchlist that was analyzed with bullish probabilities ahead of earnings).
Second, geopolitics. The rally was further fueled after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that active negotiations could yield a deal to reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz within 24 to 48 hours. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude futures both dropped over 5%, easing inflation and cost anxieties.
Today’s content:
Daily plan with levels for the SPX tomorrow, as shared in this daily note.
The fundamental picture for AMD and SPCX. Both moved higher during regular market hours but are currently giving up their daily gains following their after-hours earnings releases. We cover the reasons why.
Daily levels combined with longer-term support and resistance layers for companies posting earnings this week, allowing you to navigate their price action: PLTR, SPCX, AMD, LLY, SHOP, MELI, UBER, and APP.
Daily levels for semiconductors, which remain vital for the continuation of the rally. Levels for SMH, NVDA, AVGO, AMD, MU, and TSM are included.
A key element to watch tomorrow to help manage risk. This was also highlighted to the paid community last night and is beginning to brew a significant move today.
Let’s begin.