Choppy price action continues. This morning, the SPX recovered the anticipated central daily level (CDL) of 7,702, suggesting bullish continuation, with 7,748 serving as a second resistance line shared in advance in this publication. The market received a fuel injection after the U.S. president stated that progress was being made in diplomatic talks to extend a ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz shipping route, turning red futures green during the session.
Once again, the rally vanished. The moment price touched 7,748, the elevator down began, giving back half of the daily gains and printing another indecisive candle.
The anticipated choppy week is playing out. There are weeks when we see conviction, and others defined by intraday reversals that trap both bulls and bears. This marked the second consecutive day where prices retraced from the highs without presenting bullish conviction.
On the tech side, semiconductors drove yesterday’s bounce, and I published a detailed set of levels for NVDA, MU, and AMD to assess whether the rally would persist or prove to be merely a technical bounce. All three stocks remain below their validation levels, while the rejections for NVDA and MU at 218 and 913, both modeled in advance for this week, point to underlying weakness in the bounce. The NDX (and QQQ) closed in the red today, validating the lack of conviction observed yesterday. Updated levels for tomorrow are provided below.
On the earnings front, the first trillion-dollar company reported: SpaceX (SPCX) delivered a beat on both top and bottom lines. Revenue surged 161% year-over-year to $14.5 billion, beating consensus estimates of $12.7 billion. Earnings per share and EBITDA also came in above expectations, while capital expenditures stayed slightly below the market’s $19.6 billion estimate. That performance is keeping tech futures in the green this afternoon and semiconductors are bouncing as well.
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Today’s Agenda
SPCX and NFLX: Two Different Stories and Potential Moves in Market Hours
Daily plan for SPX, ES=F.
Daily and Weekly Levels Combined for SPX, ES=F, SPCX, QQQ, NVDA, MU, AMD, TSLA, META
Watchlist Tracker
Let’s begin.