Tech’s Bullish Week: Challenges Remain for a Green Month
NDX Down -1.5%, SMH -7%, and MU -15% in June: Further Progress Required – Levels for Next Week
Every Friday, I model support and resistance levels for the week ahead, covering the S&P 500 (SPX), key ETFs (QQQ, SPY, IWM, GLD, SLV…), all the Magnificent Seven (NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, TSLA…), and other mega-cap stocks. My technical analysis is designed to identify momentum or the probability of reversals based on established indicators, which I transparently detail in every publication for every stock, making this content action-oriented and educational.
I model these levels to reflect where institutional algorithms are likely to react. By utilizing the central weekly, monthly levels as validators, we can navigate price action with greater precision.
How to Use These Levels
These publications provide a first look at whether a security closed above or below key levels for the upcoming week, allowing you to gauge whether the initial condition is bullish or bearish. These levels serve as validators for momentum; for example, a “bullish setup” remains valid as long as the price sustains itself above the central weekly level.
Recent Performance & Validation:
SPX: This week, the SPX maintained a bullish bias by staying above 7,457, the bullish target based on a modeled level was 7,566 for a +1.1% move. The index climbed +1.2% 🎯.
GLD: The bullish setup targeted of 383.3 (+1.4%). The ETF achieved this move before retracing 🎯.
IBIT: Our weekly Bitcoin study set 35.8 as a bullish target for this ETF (+2.6%), with a potential extension to 36.7 (+5.2%). The high of the week was 36.7 🎯, confirming how institutional algorithms respect these levels.
WMT: We anticipated a bullish reversal with a recovery of 112; the bounce was validated once this level was reclaimed, the bullish target for next week is here.
MSFT: The setup was bullish above 380.9 aiming at 401.8, the monthly level at 396.18 acted as resistance, interrupting the weekly setup. This highlights the importance of combining weekly and monthly levels as presented below.
ETHA: We highlighted a bullish setup targeting 13.4 (+3.9%). The price high reached 13.7 🎯, surpassing target and nearly hitting our secondary target of 13.9.
SMH: I noted on Wednesday that the target of 563.3 (for a -4.9% move) cousl be considered reached, as the actual low was 566.83 🎯.
These are examples of levels as targets based on technical analysis. These levels also work as risk management tool. For example, NFLX suggested a bullish setup, the target was 80.4 for a +3.5% weekly move but the stock vanished again, good news for subscribers, the invalidation level was 75.7, a reference to set stops based on your own risk tolerance, in order to avoid the selloff to 72.5 as the weekly low where many traders could have capitulated.
Subscribe, the S/R levels are modeled every Friday, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade (jumping among tickers); you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.
The Levels are Modeled for this Core Watchlist:
Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F
ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX
Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD
Crypto: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT
Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY
Important Notes:
SpaceX (SPCX), as the new stock added to the Nasdaq100 (NDX) is modeled here every week as well.
Daily Levels for SPX are provided to subscribers with the market analysis, that is a major upgrade to my service. Subscribe now to the paid plan, prices will change soon, and current PAID subscribers WON’T (again, WILL NOT) see a single change in their subscription price. Become a paid subscriber now!
Current Market Outlook
This remains a choppy market, particularly within the technology sector. While the Magnificent Seven are showing resilience by bouncing from oversold conditions (as anticipated for META, AAPL, and NVDA), the semiconductor sector is still fighting to recover key levels and re-establish bullish momentum. SMH is not “out of the woods” yet; MU and AMD have gaps below acting as price magnets and TSM has a weekly shooting star still in play, just to mention few examples.
Let’s begin.
WEEKLY LEVELS
Securities marked in red are the ones in bearish territory at this point, and the percentage highlighted with red is the minimum required bounce to validate any bounce as bullish. See for example NFLX ahead of earnings and SPCX with a major requirement to be in bullish zone: