The market declined today, driven by tech weakness and a sharp surge in December rate-hike odds. GOOG plunged -12.3% on weaker than expected revenue growth in its core search business, reigniting Wall Street anxieties over immediate returns on massive AI infrastructure investments. The weakness rippled across software and infrastructure peers: ServiceNow (NOW) plummeted -27%, Fortinet (FTNT) tumbled 20%, and MSFT succumbed to broader market pressure, closing lower despite reporting a strong quarter.
Macro headwinds compounded the selloff. Hot inflation data and resilient GDP readings prompted traders to aggressively recalibrate policy expectations, pushing the probability of a December rate hike up to 74%.
Price action remained choppy this week. The SPX chart posted here on Tuesday, highlighting a sequence of lower highs and indecisive candles, was validated as the index printed yet another lower high that is likely to stay as a high considering the bearish reaction to AMZN earnings.
After the bell, AMZN added further pressure to the tape, dropping -5% in extended trading following a top and bottom line miss. Q3 EPS arrived at $1.89 (vs. $1.97 consensus) on revenue of $201.9 billion (vs. $202.2 billion expected). In addition, the management held its massive 2026 CapEx budget at $220 billion, dragging trailing twelve-month free cash flow to negative $42.4 billion and sealing the post-market selloff.
Today’s Agenda
The Most Important Chart of the Week
Fundamental Analysis and Price Targets for GOOG and MSFT
Daily plan for SPX, ES=F
Daily and Weekly Levels Combined for tomorrow: SPX, ES=F, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, NVDA, and other megacaps.
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The Most Important Chart of the Week
In this space we studied the high probabilities for a spike in the VIX, the top in the NDX, and today a major level breached: