Yesterday, we studied the probabilities for a bounce today as SPY, DIA, and IWM all reached their anticipated bearish targets: DIA: Reached 514.7 🎯 (a -2.1% move versus Friday’s close); SPY: Reached 750.5 🎯 (a -1.8% move); IWM: Reached 281.8 🎯 (a -2.5% move).
Setting targets based on modeled levels where institutional algorithms react helps improve performance and lock in profits, especially when trading with options or leveraged instruments. After reaching those bearish targets modeled last Friday for this week, I highlighted the likelihood of a bounce today, noting that “SPY: oversold conditions open up probabilities for a bounce” and “DIA: Half of the candle is below the Bollinger band, this oversold condition and the reversal in the afternoon suggest a bounce is likely.”
As I do daily, I provided exact levels for ES=F and SPX to monitor early signals of a momentum shift. ES=F recovered 7,630.9 during the night, SPX opened above 7,659, the rest is history.
Over the past two weeks, my daily notes have included observations to guide you on how to use high-probability setups and support and resistance levels. Yesterday’s publication condenses all those key learnings. Get access here:
When you subscribe to the paid plan, you receive three core publications every week covering our watchlist of indices, ETFs, megacaps, and futures. In addition, you receive a daily note with the levels for the SPX and ES=F. You can also submit your own stocks on Saturdays so their weekly levels are modeled for the week ahead and published on Sunday evening, allowing you to always plan your moves well in advance of the next session.
Today’s Agenda
The most important chart of the week
Daily plan for SPX, ES=F, MU, AMD, NVDA, AVGO
Combined Levels
Watchlist Tracker
Let’s begin.
The Most Important Chart of the Week
If this formation persists by tomorrow's close, the SPX may have set a local bottom, and bullish continuation could follow. See the lines marking previous occurrences and the subsequent considerations below: