Volatility Returns as Fed Uncertainty Rattles Investors
Support and Resistance Levels for U.S. Indices, Futures, Megacaps, Metals, and Crypto
U.S. equities demonstrated significant instability on Friday, staging a dramatic recovery after a sharp morning selloff that saw the S&P 500 plunge as much as 1.3%. The index ultimately erased nearly all those losses to close with a modest 0.1% decline, while the Nasdaq Composite reversed its own 1.9% intraday drop to finish with a 0.1% gain. This reversal was once again orchestrated by the high-flying AI sector. Shares of Nvidia, a key market driver, tumbled at the open only to stage a strong comeback, pulling broader indexes higher and illustrating the market’s heavy reliance on a concentrated group of mega-cap names.
Fed Uncertainty Creates Policy Vacuum
The market’s unsettled mood stems from persistent anxiety over the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory. Hawkish commentary from officials, including Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, has significantly dampened expectations for near-term easing. Traders now assign less than 50% probability to a December rate cut, a stark reversal from the 95% odds priced in just one month ago.
This uncertainty is compounded by an unusual data vacuum. Policymakers are operating without critical economic insights following the recent six-week federal shutdown. The Bureau of Labor Statistics only recently announced that the delayed September jobs report will finally be released next Thursday, leaving investors to navigate markets with incomplete information.
If you are a free subscriber, I sent you an email yesterday with an example of the Momentum Map (a new feature that helped anticipating this week’s rallies on LLY and BRK.B), as well as segments from the premium plan’s analysis. Find the email as:
“Stock Market Update - Both Reversals Were Anticipated 🎯”
Broad Risk-Off Sentiment Takes Hold
The flight from risk assets was visible across multiple markets. Treasury yields climbed as investors reassessed rate cut expectations, while traditional safe havens like gold declined alongside speculative assets. Bitcoin, often viewed as a sentiment barometer, fell below $96,000 for the first time in six months, reflecting deteriorating risk appetite.
Friday’s wild intraday swings cap a challenging two-week period that has seen the tech-heavy Nasdaq shed $1.74 trillion in market value, putting it on track for its first losing month since March (remember my monthly chart posted starting November and the essential indicator breached). While dip buyers stepped in to prevent another rout, the market’s foundation appears increasingly fragile as it confronts elevated valuations, rising yields, and persistent economic uncertainty.
Navigating Uncertainty with Technical Discipline
In environments like this, where fundamental visibility is limited and sentiment shifts rapidly, technical analysis becomes particularly valuable. Support and resistance levels provide objective reference points for managing risk and identifying potential turning points. This week’s analysis covers 44 major securities across indices, equities, and key market indicators, providing you with clear technical frameworks to navigate the current volatility.
The following securities analyzed provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions:
Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F
ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ
Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX
Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR
Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY
As always, these levels are calculated and published in advance for the week ahead, giving you actionable insights before the market opens rather than reactive analysis after the fact.
Before continuing, remember to read the last fundamental+technical deep dives,
This is a key moment waited for many, bear in mind the SPX has printed a -4% decline from top to bottom already, as the QQQ -7%. As I have mentioned, this market is setting a healthy pullback, today’s edition brings a solid reference that suggests so, not opinions, only historical facts that are learned only when they are experienced, unlock the analysis upgrading the subscription, and get access to the fundamental+technical deep dives linked above.
Let’s begin with the special study updated, and we continue with the Weekly, Monthly, and Combined S/R levels. Spoiler alert: The SPX has to jump next week to recover the central and monthly levels, how much? see below.