Back on March 28, I highlighted in this publication how likely was the market to bounce, the call was unpopular, but my role is to assess the price action with neutrality, when the market is exhausted I call it for both directions, and that was the case back then.
I highlight technical conditions, not news, not noise, price action generally precedes them, and this time was no different like in the tariff war in 2025, the further inflation fears in 2022. My statements included:
“Oversold conditions have been seriously reached”, “If the market does not set a relief bounce next week, it would be against the trend of the last 25 years including the dot com and the great financial crisis”
My analysis is clear and specific: I use indicators to identify potential reversals, and I use modeled price levels to validate the technical thesis. This validation occurs either by confirming a reversal (where a specific level must be reclaimed by bulls or lost by bears) or by monitoring a consolidation where a level flips from support to resistance or vice versa. For example, on that day I noted the weekly levels that must hold to consider a bounce a true recovery: SPX at 6,429.8, SPY at 640.1, and QQQ at 568.5, with similar requirements for the SMH, IWM, DIA, and the Magnificent Seven. The recovery of those levels occurred on Tuesday March 31st.
Since then, technical indicators have been analyzed week by week to highlight bullish conditions and specific price levels. These are updated every week, with the Central Weekly Level (CWL) serving as the validator of momentum. Alongside this, the Central Monthly Level (CML) remains essential for assessing the longer term structure for both investors and traders.
Today, following an +11% move in the SPX and a 16%+ surge in the NDX, we must assess price action through the lens of mixed signals: long term indicators remain bullish, while the very short term has become overheated.
This publication provides ongoing analysis of the SPX, NDX, DJI, SMH, IWM, and the VIX, alongside the Magnificent Seven and other mega-caps like AVGO, AMD, and PLTR. Last Saturday’s “Setups Blueprint” (a summarized report highlighting the technical bias for each security) maintained a bullish outlook for the SPX, projecting a weekly move between 7,206 and 7,248 (+0.6% to +1.2%); the final outcome was +0.91%. For the NDX, the blueprint anticipated a +1.2% move to 27,610, while the final weekly move reached +1.5% at 27,710.
In today’s edition, we will study a combination of long term trends and short term potential moves, utilizing weekly and monthly levels to establish targets and validate each technical thesis. Upgrade to the paid plan and unlock all the content.
Today’s Agenda
Market Context: Technical charts and price levels for SPX, U.S. Indices, Volatility, Breadth, and Crypto.
The Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single chart.
Deep Dive: Individual analysis of Metals and Mega Caps (20+ charts).
Setups Blueprint: Summary with short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing higher probability setups.
Is the market getting ready for a consolidation? will bears have a chance? Toda’s publication brings 5 specific indicators to monitor and make informed decisions.
Let’s begin.
SPX: Combining Short Term Warnings and Long term Setups
We are approaching my bullish target for 2026. The velocity of this move is unprecedented, and seasonal factors, such as the midterm election cycle, must be considered. The chart highlights:
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