Will Tech Save the Rally? - Most Indexes Are Showing Exhaustion
6 bullish months in the making, or will the market print the first monthly reversal candle?
“Signals of turbulent waters emerge”, was the title of the previous publication, providing guidance of choppy days ahead and the key indicators to monitor for bearish reversals, the S&P500, Russell2000, and Dow Jones are heading into Halloween with exhaustion, will Tech save the rally?
The previous edition of the Weekly Compass anticipated declines for AAPL, SILVER, and BITCOIN; all of them were proven true, there were also bullish readings for NVDA, TSLA, and MSFT; observe that all of the expectations except NVDA had the opposite sentiment just one week ago. Bitcoin, Silver and Apple were breaking out, and everybody was bearish on Tesla and Microsoft; all those reversals were anticipated in this publication, even the bounce in the VIX.
Consolidations were expected for META and DAX, that was the case; for AMZN a rapid buy of any pullback was expected, and the the week presented indecisive price action for Amazon.
For GDX the technical condition that could bring a pullback was anticipated, providing the key level that if lost, would trigger a selloff, that was also the case. GOOG presented mixed signals, so a key level was also provided, the stock is trying to bounce, still with lack of conviction but the picture is better ahead of earnings.
The Dow Jones reached last week a significant level mentioned, the -2.68% weekly decline is not a surprise and it was warned, IWM fell -3%, something not anticipated by the weekly chart, but the daily timeframe was screaming that a pullback was coming. S&P 500 declined -0.96%, and Nasdaq100 closed the week flat with indecision.
Get ready for one of the most important weeks of the year for the stock market; GOOG, MSFT, META, AMZN and AAPL are reporting earnings, and the market has warning signals in macroeconomic indicators (previously studied in this edition and available in the library).
Wall Street has high expectations for all of them, will META rally again after earnings? no significant declines have been observed after E.R. since October 2022.
As usual, this edition includes charts and analyses for: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, TLT, GOOG, AAPL, TSLA, META, NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, DAX, BITCOIN, GDX, SILVER and as anticipated last week: NATURAL GAS.
Also contextual charts of volatility, stock participation, interest rates, U.S. Dollar and more are included with technical considerations. The bounce in the USD and interest rates is not consistent with the latest FED rate-cut decision, but it is technically valid and the oversold levels anticipated the recent rally; the chart always warns about the actual moves, not the financial news.
Last but not least, there are two signals in Bitcoin and Nvidia that you do not want to miss. Let’s begin:
S&P 500