Bitcoin's New Season
What History Says About the Next Move - Stock Market Update
Every four years, Bitcoin has delivered the same lesson with ruthless precision: those who understand its cycles prosper, while those who ignore them watch their portfolios swing wildly between euphoria and despair. Despite Bitcoin's explosive returns following each halving event, most investors still approach it like a lottery ticket rather than recognizing the predictable patterns that have governed its price action for over a decade. The difference between random speculation and strategic positioning lies in understanding these market cycles—and the window for the next major move may be closing faster than most realize.
This publication has anticipated bullish and bearish reversals for Bitcoin in the middle of panic and euphorias respectively; this is an asset that respects technical analysis more than many stocks out there, and after a year and a half of publishing technical analysis every single week with Bitcoin, providing specific support and resistance levels for the asset and also for its biggest ETF IBIT, it is time to dedicate an analysis for this cryptocurrency that has gained tangible attention from governments and companies.
Since the beginning of this year, the $124K mark has been highlighted in every single chart posted each Saturday, and that was exactly the level from which the price retraced last week, the technical conditions favor this decline that we are observing.
The latest Weekly Compass, and another posted in December -both validating pullbacks for Bitcoin- can be accessed using the links below, so you can study short term technical patterns (The publications also include the SPX, NDX, VIX, DJIA, IWM, SMH, GLD, SLV, PLTR, NFLX, BRK.B (which continues bouncing as anticipated), TLT, and the Magnificent Seven (NVDA, TSLA, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, META, GOOG):
Upgrade your subscription to paid, an also unlock all of my long-term market research and educational content. I have consolidated it into a single, comprehensive guide. This guide covers everything from technical, macro and fundamental indicators to options, trading psychology, and macro analysis. It also features dedicated sections on advanced topics like Fibonacci, Elliott Wave theory, and market breadth. The section on my special market studies—many of which were published in April and May 2025 and anticipated the rally we are now navigating—is constantly updated and is worth the subscription price alone.
Let's continue with our deep dive into Bitcoin and the stock market, featuring updated support and resistance levels for all securities. So far, the setups are playing out as expected: BRK.B continues to bounce as its bullish setup indicated, while PLTR and SMH are declining as their bearish setups warned. Today, we will analyze the implications of these bearish targets being reached.
Bitcoin's market history has consistently demonstrated a pattern of dramatic, volatile cycles that follow predictable structural phases. These cycles are driven by programmatic supply mechanics, behavioral psychology, and evolving macroeconomic factors. This analysis examines the established four-phase cycle model while incorporating recent developments that may be reshaping traditional patterns.