A very choppy week has ended, bringing the anticipated vanishing bounce. The Volatility Index (VIX), SPX, and NDX have been studied with clear indicators, and their setups anticipated both the previous week’s decline and the recent choppy price action closing in the red. This week’s bearish trigger came from the technology sector, driven this time by capital expenditure concerns for META, which turned negative in free cash flow; the market simply needed a catalyst, and it arrived from the corporate front.
What is particularly interesting is that stock participation continues to improve. While the mega-cap semiconductor and tech giants in general are struggling, that weakness is not replicated across the broader market. Healthcare, energy, staples, financials, and discretionary sectors, those less influenced by tech, enjoyed a bullish week. Communication services (XLC) was impacted by META’s bearish move.
For this reason, I maintain a specific watchlist covering mega-caps across different sectors. Last week, this publication anticipated high-probability bearish setups for META, exceeding its 659 target (-7.1%); MSFT, hitting 515 (-2%); and AMZN, targeting 244.5 (-2.2%), alongside bullish setups for COST, which reached 1,016 (+2.7%), and XOM, hitting 181.8 (+1.6%). The setup blueprint I present includes my personal picks and the specific roadmap for each security so subscribers can track their own preferences: LLY for example was bullish, and reached the 1,302 target (+3.6%), V was bullish, approaching the 417.4 extended target (+3.7%), and GOOG was bearish, it exceeded its 322 extended target (-4.2%).
My watchlist focuses on mega-caps and high-volume ETFs that are actively traded in the options market, with most offering leveraged instruments for those seeking more velocity. These mega-caps can deliver double-digit moves when properly selected, which is why I combine transparently explained technical charts with the Momentum Map for paid subscribers, backed by modeled support and resistance levels to validate momentum and set precise targets.
This is my watchlist permanently studied, with daily updates. If you trade some of these securities, this publication is for you:
Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F
ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX
Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD
Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT
Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY
One final advantage of maintaining a structured watchlist is becoming deeply familiar with their fundamentals, which I update every quarter in my fundamental library. Earnings season is at its peak, I have improved the fundamental analysis with institutional level analysis in one pagers, all the stocks above are being updated, in case you missed META, NFLX, TSLA, and SPCX, the downloadable analyses are here:
Unlock this objective approach by upgrading to the paid plan, and the support and resistance levels considering the watchlist for next week are here.
Everything is available at smartreversals.com. Zero gut feeling. Everything is specific.
Next week will be a blockbuster stretch featuring mega-cap earnings from MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, LLY, and V, alongside the highly anticipated Fed rate decision this Wednesday and Core PCE data (the Fed's preferred inflation metric) on Thursday. Fasten your seatbelts and let’s examine what technical indicators say, critical price levels required, and high-probability setups to navigate the week ahead.
Today’s Agenda
Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.
Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.
Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.
Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.
Let’s begin.