During the past few days, I have been cautioning subscribers about a spike in volatility, backed by technical factors that were clearly documented, including cracks in the technology sector. More specifically, semiconductors are currently printing a bearish week: SMH and AMD are both down -6% for the week, and MU has declined -11%.
Last night, I highlighted the risks of a decline considering price action for the SPX and NDX, since the structure for both indices had a downside magnet. Tech indeed was the main driver of today’s selloff.
The bearish resolution today is no surprise from a technical perspective, and the CPI data served as the catalyst for this likely move since it came hotter than the market expected. The probabilities for a rate hike at the end of this month passed to 32% from 22% last night, the market is reacting to this spike, the central daily level of 7,801 for SPX and 7851.7 for the ES=F were lost early in the morning, and then the key central weekly levels. Tomorrow we have PPI data, the market context and technical charts with targets are below.
The SPX is my core index, but I study a constant watchlist of stocks, ETFs, Crypto, and other indices, helping subscribers to navigate their preferred stocks and market rotations. Following the high-probability setups posted last Saturday, key targets have been reached 🎯:
NVDA: Anticipated a decline targeting 224.5 and then 219.7 for a -4.2% drop, and that exact level was hit today.
AMD: The bearish setup targeted 589, and then 571.7 for a -6% move this week, and price closed at that level today.
QQQ: Anticipated a decline targeting 732.8 for a -2.5% drop; that target was exceeded today, with the weekly decline currently at -2.9%.
However, as I always emphasize, market rotation is constant. Alongside those downside targets, I also highlighted bullish setups 🎯:
COST: Targeted 976.8 for a +3.2% gain. This target has already been surpassed.
WMT: Set with an extended target of 116.9, for a +5% gain about to be completed.
The other bullish setups will be studied below.
These anticipated directions were transparently explained to our paid community using clean charts and support/resistance levels modeled ahead of the week (relying not on historical diagonals or long-term levels, but on real-time weekly price action). My goal is to deliver consistent, actionable weekly moves across a constant mega-cap watchlist.
This is my Core Watchlist, If you trade some of these tickers, this publication is for you:
Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F
ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX
Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD
Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT
Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY
Focusing on the largest megacaps and primary ETFs provides the daily volume needed for reliable order execution. This securities are also in the options market or have leveraged ETFs for traders and investors who like more velocity.
If you missed Saturday’s Weekly Compass, perhaps while celebrating a long-weekend, you can access the full analysis below, subscribe to the paid plan and unlock also my market intelligence library, including two downloadable e-books on technical analysis essentials and advanced charts.
Today’s Midweek Update & Agenda
Setups Update: SPX, QQQ, NVDA, AMD, COST, JPM, NFLX, AMZN
Daily plan for SPX, ES=F.
Daily and Weekly Levels Combined for SPX, ES=F, and more semiconductor giants (MU, QCOM, MRVL, AVGO, NVDA, AMD)
Watchlist Tracker
Let’s begin.