Fed Cuts at All-Time Highs: A Bullish Anomaly
Stock Market and Crypto Update - Setups Update
The financial world has witnessed a rare phenomenon: the Federal Reserve cut interest rates while the S&P 500 hovered within 1% of an all-time high. This marks the third such occurrence in the latter half of 2025 alone, following similar moves in September and October. While rate cuts are traditionally viewed as emergency medicine for a struggling economy, this pattern represents an “insurance cut”, a strategic attempt to prolong an expansion rather than fight a recession. When the Fed eases into strength, it fundamentally alters market mechanics, signaling a desire to keep the party going rather than cleaning up a mess.
In today’s publication we will cover the following topics:
What to expect for the SPX, NDX, and Bitcoin? An update following the latest Market Intelligence edition (click here) where I covered the price targets for SPX and NDX in 2026 based on the current price structure.
Status of the high probability trades posted in the Weekly Compass The recent setups considered: bullish continuation in PLTR (+3.6% for the week), bounce for MSTR (+4.3% so far for the week), shorts like LLY (-1.6% so far), WMT (-1.7%), and other setups brewing. I have mentioned my bullish positions for Bitcoin (+3.5%), and other setups like IWM that you can unlock upgrading your subscription (some moves may have been completed).
Managing S/R levels as targets After the third week of posting high probability setups, let’s elaborate on how to use them for new premium subscribers.
This publication consistently analyzes the following securities to provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions:
Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F
ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ
Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX
Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR
Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY
Let’s continue,
Investors anticipating an immediate, vertical rally should manage risk carefully, as the short-term reaction to these cuts can be turbulent. We saw this play out recently following the October 29, 2025 cut, which triggered a ‘sell the news’ event and a subsequent drift lower, ultimately resulting in the expected -5% pullback (reaching -5.5% precisely). While today’s reaction was bullish—driven largely by medium-term expectations—we will analyze the current price structure below to help you manage risk if you decide to chase this move. Those who bought during the 5.5% pullback following our November 22nd call (click here for the publication) now have a cushion and are better positioned to navigate any incoming volatility.
What to Expect Today?