The SPX closed muted for the second day in a row, showing indecision ahead of key inflation data. Tomorrow, the CPI will be released before the opening bell at 8:30AM EST, and on Thursday, the same will occur with the PPI and jobs data.
The market is anticipating just a 22% chance of a rate hike on October 28th, when the Federal Reserve will make the decision whether to keep rates steady or increase them by 0.25%. The consensus for CPI YoY is 3.6%; any number above it may increase the probability of a rate hike tomorrow, placing potential pressure on stocks. The same applies to Thursday, when core PPI is forecasted at 0.5% for the month.
Forecasting macroeconomic data is tricky, but staying prepared ahead of potential moves is essential. The support and resistance levels for tomorrow are outlined below, featuring the bullish above and bearish below levels for the SPX, ES=F, and a special zoom-in on semiconductor giants on watch, as that subsector is validating bearish setups studied on Saturday for this week.
SMH: Today touched 571.7, the extended bearish target for a -6% move versus Friday.
NVDA: Reached 224 for a -2.1% move.
QQQ: Reached 242 for a -1.2% move versus Friday.
These three bearish levels modeled since Friday acted as support, proving that these price zones are where institutional algorithms react. These setups were studied on Saturday alongside bullish setups for COST and WMT. Today, we will track the entire set of setups and the market context for Wednesday, October 14th.
In case you missed it, the Weekly Compass with the Setups (charts and price targets) is here:
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Today’s Agenda
Recent Reactions to CPI and Technical Charts
Daily plan for SPX, ES=F.
Daily and Weekly Levels Combined for SPX, ES=F, NVDA, AMD, AVGO, MU, MRVL, QCOM
Watchlist Tracker
Let’s begin