I began investing and trading with real dedication and discipline in 2016. That is already 10 years ago, when I started buying stocks the way many people do: reading the news, trying to build a bullish case with fundamentals, and listening to expert opinions. I always liked candlesticks as a visual representation of price action, and back then, I studied several books on the subject. Because no single technical indicator works in isolation, I learned about oscillators (Stochastic, RSI), Bollinger Bands, moving averages, and measuring my performance against the SPX. Back then, I focused heavily on the FAANGs (if you remember that acronym, congratulations; staying in this arena this long puts you far above the average investor or trader: Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google).
The year 2017 looks easy on a long-term chart, but back then, the rapid swings whenever Trump tweeted or spoke were hard to manage, the market was getting used to it. The conventional approach of candlesticks and oscillators helped me navigate entries and exits when the day closed, but not the sudden intraday swings triggered by a tweet about “Rocket Man” (when North Korea was launching missile tests over Japan), or sudden statements about job creation and bullish news that sparked rapid rallies. That was when I started analyzing support and resistance levels to pinpoint where price could bounce or reverse, but most importantly, where I needed to protect capital or gains during an unexpected swing.
I learned the hard way that algorithms are programmed to hunt stop losses. I used to place stop losses for long positions directly at key levels rather than below them, only to watch them get triggered right before price bounced back. I also learned the importance of trailing stop losses upward. When price reached resistance, it could reverse rapidly, as it is happening today (happened with TSLA this week once the gap we were targeting was filled) and human nature tempts you to wait for a bounce or wanting more. Or, once you hit a psychological target in profit or account balance, you resist exiting below that peak. That hesitation usually ends up being an expensive mistake when you finally capitulate and sell too late. It is human, it has happened to all of us.
Because of this, I began working with structured scenarios. Using predefined levels, I mapped out exactly how my capital, gains, and losses would look if a stock or ETF moved toward specific price targets. It left me far better prepared psychologically. That is also why I post the Support and Resistance Levels every Friday for the week ahead, along with the monthly levels and percentage variances, so the impact on any position can be calculated in advance considering each person’s capital. The ones for next week and September are here for the SPX, NDX, futures, key ETFs like SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM, megacaps like NVDA, AAPL, AMZN, PLTR, AMD, metals, and crypto ETFs.
Returning to the timeline, 2017 ended well, but 2018 arrived with a sharp selloff in February. The Dow Jones dropped 7% in two days as the 10-year Treasury yield spiked to a four-year high. That was a swift flush for late buyers chasing the 2017 rally; conditions were overbought, and the macro backdrop triggered the reset.
Price eventually recovered. The uptrend resumed in April, new all-time highs arrived by August, and September bypassed the typical volatility seen in midterm election years. Everything seemed calm until Tariff War 1.0 escalated. Meanwhile, the rate hikes that started in March continued, despite heavy political pressure on Jay Powell. By year-end, the federal funds rate had climbed from 1.25%–1.50% up to 2.25%–2.50%. That tightening cycle, combined with a government shutdown, set the stage for a late-year bear market with a -20% correction in the SPX.
Navigating my first official bear market taught me how psychological denial blinds traders when technicals are clearly overbought. I also learned the significance of unfilled price gaps at all time highs: the July 9, 2018 gap on the SPX at 2,764 finally filled after a clean reversal on September 21, when the daily candle breached the upper Bollinger Band alongside a clear bearish RSI divergence.
Like 2018, midterm election cycles often bring rate shifts and evolving central bank dynamics. The parallels to our current market setup in 2026 are striking, especially when looking at the technical conditions we have been tracking.
Charts do not repeat exactly the same, but technical patterns do, choppy price action is here to stay, the SPX is near all time highs, rapid reversals are happening when the bullish targets are reached.
With that said, staying disciplined with the process, analyzing technical conditions, adhering to modeled levels, monitoring the 59% probability of a September rate hike, and staying alert to broader breadth deterioration will all be essential to navigating the days ahead.
Below is the 5 day change in the S&P 500. The most notable bullish moves came from semiconductors, while four of the “Magnificent Seven” fell or closed flat (MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, AAPL). Several stocks posting gains are either recovering from oversold conditions (such as META, WMT, and ORCL) or bouncing after weeks of steady declines (like MU, INTC, and AMD).
Is everything bearish? No. Disciplined technical analysis and an active watchlist consistently provide opportunities even in choppy markets.
Last week, the anticipated setups for WMT🎯, SPCX🎯, SMH🎯, AAPL🎯, IWM🎯, NFLX🎯, and SPX🎯 averaged a weekly gain of 3% each. Only two setups moved differently than expected, but by using stop-loss references, our support and resistance levels helped protect capital on those two defensive plays (XOM and AMZN). That marks a 7:2 win ratio during a week when the SPX closed virtually flat at +0.1%. And even better, the setups blueprint shows the price levels for all the watchlist, if you are a TSLA, NVDA, or IBIT permanent enthusiast, the setups for all this watchlist is presented below:
Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F
ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX
Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD
Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT
Unlock this objective approach by upgrading to the paid plan. Subscribers also get access to educational content and Market Intelligence analyses, fundamentals, and how to get the most out of the high-probability setups. Everything is available at smartreversals.com. Zero gut feeling. Everything is specific.
My complete Market Intelligence and educational content is here, paid subscribers have access to all the linked content and my two downloadable eBooks on technical indicators, they include real life charts.
Today’s Agenda
Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.
Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.
Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.
Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.
Let’s begin.