Last week, I was bearish on the SPX, DIA, and IWM. They presented setups that were shared transparently here with paid subscribers. I always break down the exact reasons why a stock, index, ETF, or cryptocurrency is showing a strong bullish or bearish direction. This gives you the setup while teaching you how to read a chart a skill acquired over time through consistency. Reading an online infographic about candlesticks or skimming a single book is simply not enough; consistent practice is required.
The targets were reached: 514.7 for DIA (a -2.1% move 🎯), 750.5 for SPY (a -1.8% move 🎯), and 281.1 for IWM (a -2.5% move🎯), all mapped out before the week even opened. The technical indicators described transparently every Saturday provide direction, while the support and resistance levels I model in advance every Friday provide the targets.
I wasn’t as bearish on tech. I have been presenting the bullish thesis for GOOG and META, also the risk for bears with semiconductor giants like NVDA and AMD, which presented bullish probabilities once gap fill attempts occurred. In fact, AMD was a high-probability bullish setup temporarily challenged on Monday. I used that specific move for my daily note, outlining three different scenarios to play the bullish case. That afternoon, AMD had fallen -4.4%, and I noted that a key monthly level had established firm support. I walked subscribers through this challenging setup, which is precisely why I count AMD as a successful high-probability setup. The guidance was posted on Monday; find it right here, because navigating the toughest cases is what creates the greatest traders.
Not everything was set as bearish, NFLX and WMT reached their bullish targets of 79.4 🎯 (+2.6%) and 108.6 🎯 (+1.3%), respectively and AMD made it to 550.1 🎯 (+6.6%). On Wednesday I documented the reasons why the SPY/SPX, DIA and the market could bounce, providing specific levels to navigate the bounce.
During the last two weeks, we have studied how to manage the modeled levels when targets are exceeded or when price action falls short, as these zones are where institutional algorithms react. In addition, on Wednesday I presented the bullish case for AVGO considering the gap fill, an easy +5% gain 🎯 that played out on Thursday and Friday.
The question today is: Is the Bottom In?
The weekly moves for the SPX components were mixed, with tech and healthcare keeping the index afloat after a volatile week. Today, we will study the indices in our usual detail, review the setups with the highest probability of success including their targets, and analyze the megacaps charts for both traders and investors.
Every Saturday, this publication presents the setups and levels for each security on our watchlist, and my daily notes now include a tracker for these securities as well:
Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F
ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX
Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD
Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT
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Today’s Agenda
Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.
Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.
Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.
Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist.
Let’s begin.