Peace Deal, Firm Fed, Internal Cracks in the SPX
Volatility, Breadth, Price Action, and Sectors Signal Caution: High-Probability Setups
U.S. equities closed the week with gains, as investors weighed a firm Federal Reserve stance against a landmark interim agreement between the United States and Iran. The S&P 500 advanced 0.9% to 7,500.6.
The Federal Open Market Committee, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, held benchmark rates in the 3.5% to 3.75% range and signaled no near-term intention to ease. The decision briefly rattled markets midweek before equities recovered and pushed higher. In the corporate arena, SpaceX reversed from our $225 level on Tuesday, following a warning sign posted to Subscribers on Monday, the stock closed the week in 185, securing a valuation of $2.4 trillion.
I am posting daily levels for SpaceX exclusively for paid subscribers. If you’re watching this stock, upgrade to the paid plan to get access now.
Across asset classes, the U.S. Dollar Index held near a one-year high of 100.7 as currency markets absorbed the rate outlook. Investors and traders must consider a multi-month bullish move as the setup for DXY suggests. Gold logged a third consecutive weekly decline, trading between $4,150 and $4,172 per ounce expectation for a bounce occurred reaching the target, but a stronger USD makes gold more expensive to buy, which causes demand and prices to drop.
Crude settled near $76.5, with supply concerns offset by progress on the geopolitical front. Looking ahead, the focus shifts to the PCE price index, final Q1 GDP figures, and earnings from Micron Technology (MU) and FedEx (FDX).
High Probability Setups
Each week, I assess the technical conditions for a set of megacaps and high-volume assets available in the options market. The analysis is presented as a blueprint with specific targets and invalidation levels to protect capital.
If you follow assets like SPX, QQQ, NVDA, and TSLA, this publication covers charts and levels for all of them across three posts per week. The same applies if you prefer MSFT, AAPL, IBIT, and GOOG, to name a few.
Since the watchlist spans different sectors, LLY, WMT, JPM, V, IWM, and more, you can also rotate your focus toward the setups most likely to reach their targets.
This creates a consistent roadmap for both long-term investors and active traders. We have tracked multi-week moves in AAPL, LLY, GOOG, Bitcoin for investors, and setups with a 4% weekly move for traders.
With that said: the bullish targets for JPM 🎯, GLD 🎯, WMT 🎯, AMZN 🎯, META 🎯, IBIT 🎯, and GOOG 🎯 were all reached during the week, and so was the bearish target for LLY 🎯. The bullish reversal for MSFT did not play out, nor did the bearish one for AAPL, that puts the week at an 80% success rate for the setups I highlighted as more likely to reach their targets. Anyway, subscribers focused on QQQ or SPY also saw those securities reach the specific bullish targets posted in last week’s Blueprint while subscribers who like TSLA, they saw the loss of the key weekly level.
Unlock this objective approach by upgrading to the paid plan. Subscribers also get access to educational content and Market Intelligence analysis, recent topics include previous IPO moves, SPX history and Fed Chair transitions, semiconductor fundamentals, and how to get the most out of the high-probability setups. Everything is available at smartreversals.com.
Here are the links to the latest publications, essential reading for both investors and traders looking to navigate this market with confidence:
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Today, we will analyze the market internals that are flagging caution, including the charts, price targets and most likely moves for the upcoming week.
Today’s Agenda
Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.
Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.
The Heat Rank: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.
Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.
Let’s begin.