SPX: Market Peak or Tactical Pause?
A Comparative Study of Price Structure: Historical Benchmarks and the Path Ahead - Stock Market Update
The S&P 500 rallied for three consecutive weeks when it bounced, gaining over 3% each week. Such an occurrence is rare in the stock market; the move was so rapid that apathy is the common human reaction, similar to what is observed during a breadth thrust signal.
Today, the market is consolidating after this sharp move. Considering the high expectations seen across social media and mainstream news for a decline, I am providing a technical study of these types of events in order to have an objective perspective.
Premium subscribers who have followed my analysis over the past two years know that I do not blindly trust statistical tables. Instead, I study the charts and assess common patterns to reach a conclusion. This approach successfully anticipated several key moves: the 2024 pullback to the 40-week moving average in the midst of euphoria (triggered by the Japan carry trade in August); a major correction to $4,800 after touching $6,109 that I projected at the end of 2024 (which materialized in March and April 2025 after reaching $6,147); and the bullish continuation during the period of apathy in April and May 2025, which evolved into new all-time highs. Most recently, in March, during the recent correction, I posted a study of previous bull markets highlighting that a major top was unlikely to be in, based on a comprehensive analysis of historical pullbacks and corrections.
Another special study posted two weeks ago, focused on gaps and the likelihood of them being filled, the conclusions continue playing out:
Neutrality is essential when analyzing the markets. Today, I am analyzing the current price structure to provide a longer-term view that transcends the daily charts and their inherent volatility. Remember, while charts do not repeat themselves, technical patterns do. The best example of this is the consensus in March about April 2026 to produce an identical lower low to the one observed in April 2025, but it didn’t happen. Charts are never exactly the same, but technical conditions frequently repeat and our conditions are not the ones of 2025, we will study the right benchmarks today.
SmartReversals assesses near term price movements using the Support and Resistance levels and the Weekly Compass and published every Friday and Saturday. The Wednesday edition serves a different purpose, providing a broader perspective with market intelligence that covers macro structures and fundamental analysis to help you navigate the current environment.
Today’s analysis provides a factual outlook for price action for the S&P 500 (SPX) over the next 1, 3, 6, and 12 months. This is not based on gut feelings or sophisticated tables that you cannot audit. Instead, I rely strictly on real price action and verifiable charts.
Today’s edition is essential reading for both long term investors and active traders. Upgrade to a paid subscription now to gain immediate access.
The stock market update is also included today, assessing the moves of META, GOOG, AMZN, and MSFT.
Let’s begin.
SPX Outlook: Is the Top In, or is This a Pause Before New Highs?
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