The week started with an interesting divergence highlighted last Saturday in the Weekly Compass: the Dow Jones showed a likely bullish setup, while tech exhibited cracks. Indices usually move in the same direction but with different proportions, and today those divergent setups indeed pushed both indices in opposite directions. Dow Jones +0.35% vs Nasdaq 100 -0.71%.
The described cracks for tech are playing out. From the high-probability setups mentioned last Saturday, NVDA was set to decline and the stock lost -1.3% today. AMD was highlighted for a decline and fell -2.3%, while the QQQ ETF dropped -0.7%.
As I have noted several times, is everything bearish? The answer is no, and the probabilities for a crash remain low. There are individual giants showing strong bullish setups. As highlighted on Saturday, COST and WMT carried high probabilities for a bullish move, gaining today +1.3% and +1.6% respectively. I also noted that NFLX maintains its own personality when a setup is strong; regardless of broader market action, the stock proved resilient today despite the tech pullback.
My primary focus is the SPX, and I maintain a constant watchlist of the 20 largest mega-caps and ETFs across sectors to monitor rotation. Today, the semiconductor sector (SMH) validated the bearish setups we recently studied, serving as the primary market condition to watch.
For those who may have missed the Weekly Compass during the long weekend, the publication featuring complete setup analyses and directional probabilities for each ticker is linked below:
The question is, what is my watchlist?
This is the core regular watchlist, which I organize into a momentum map to capture the stage and relative position of each asset in a single chart. This complete mapping is updated weekly and published in our Weekly Compass:
Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F
ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX
Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD
Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT
Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY
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Today’s Agenda
Daily plan for SPX, ES=F.
Daily and Weekly Levels Combined for SPX, ES=F, MU, AMD, NVDA, AVGO, MRVL, QCOM
Watchlist Tracker
Let’s begin.
Daily Plan for SPX and ES=F
This chart explains very well the divergence observed today between the Dow Jones and the NDX 100, and the reason why this week I’m featuring the daily levels for semiconductors as special guests for everyone: