The Busiest Week of the Quarter
Stock market conditions ahead of the most important week of the earnings season
The weekly bearish engulfing candle printed in the S&P 500 two weeks ago has been invalidated. Although those candles are usually major signals, once again, the uniqueness of this bull market comes into play. We have studied several rare bullish signals over the last few months, and 2025 has presented multiple combinations, not only one bullish signal, so the “buy the dip” mentality is evident. The apathy towards the bullish signals that appeared in April and May shows today a common human reaction: looking for a dip as a buying opportunity to make up for the indecision felt when the market was fearful. The signals were identified, but because they are so rare, they were difficult to trust. I anticipated this in the Weekly Compass of April 26th:
“…If this is your first time encountering it, I hope you quickly adjust your market perspective and accept that after such a bearish day like last Monday, the market can roar with potentially reversal candles or gaps invalidating bearish setups.”
For new subscribers, the two publications linked below analyze the current stage of the bull market and, most importantly, provide the bullish targets for the SPX and NDX based on specific metrics and technical analysis, using the same methodology applied a year ago when I anticipated a major bearish reversal once $6,107 was reached; and the market crashed after topping at $6,147 🎯🎯🎯. Even better, my forecast using combination of statistics and price levels was for a visit to $4,800, the bottom was $4,835 🎯🎯🎯. That said, these two publications that use the same approach are a must read if you want a roadmap for the next months given how rare is the current market:
And if you are a Bitcoin investor, this third publication is a must read for you:
Last but not least, on Friday I posted the Support and Resistance Levels for next week, including the summary of what happened during the week, get access here:
Upgrade your subscription to paid, and unlock all the premium content.
Let’s begin:
Subscribers who have known me for a long time know that CONSISTENCY is my main principle. I revisit special analyses to give you a roadmap because the stock market is an environment where daily news and social media can easily derail your trading plan.
The SPX and NDX have presented several bearish signals that have been short-lived. This publication covers many more securities. Last weekend, I highlighted the likelihood of bullish bounces for BITCOIN, MSFT, GOOG, META, AAPL, and TSLA. Of these, only TSLA declined, but as you will see below, its chart is still constructive.
Last Sunday, we also studied the rapid decline in the VIX, along with the odds for a bounce based on the signal from the McClellan Oscillator. Ultimately, the price action confirmed a bullish outcome.
In any case, despite any choppy price action, I provide the central weekly level for 44 securities, including SPX, NDX, SPY, and QQQ as the most popular ways to navigate the indices. Throughout the week, this central price level was never breached, so no bearish attempt was confirmed.
There has been a constant rotation inside the indices, let’s remember that NVDA and MSFT soared while AAPL and TSLA were in laggard mode, similarly META and GOOG rallied while AMZN presented weakness. Today when NVDA is trying to hold the line AAPL has recovered still with so much potential.
The anticipated decline in GLD and SLV happened as anticipated last week, PLTR is completing a bullish setup and NFLX is near to complete a bearish move (let’s remember that even before NVDA, NFLX started rallying in this bull market).
To provide the context for all the securities analyzed in this publication, I have used this MOMENTUM MAP, so premium subscribers can see which securities are retracing after overextended rally (Weakening), which ones are bearish and in specific cases ready to bounce (as AAPL and TSLA did recently), and which ones are rising (Improving), giving you a tool to select securities before analyzing each chart in the premium section below. The securities in the leading quadrant are usually in solid momentum and it’s worth managing the rally since some of them may be ready to consolidate. The MAP has all the securities in the premium section below.
For more details about my Top-Down Trading Method and how to read this momentum map, read my approach here, it’s open for everyone:
If you trade one or some of the following securities, this publication is for you:
Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F
ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ
Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX
Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR
Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY
Let’s continue with the charts, where we’ll interpret candlesticks, oscillators, the volume profile, and moving averages, alongside the key price levels to watch.
The MOMENTUM MAP, featuring all the included securities, is below in the premium section.
SPX AND MOMENTUM MAP
Notice how strong AAPL and TSLA look now, positioned for potential consolidation, while NVDA, AVGO, SMH, ETHEREUM and others are showing distinct weakness (remember the individual levels and charts). This presents a stark contrast to their positions just two months ago, when TSLA and AAPL were in the red quadrant. Most importantly for bulls, observe the securities that are warming up for a breakout, where AAPL and TSLA were before: