Turbulence After the Rate Cut

AVGO Was Just the Catalyst. Week-Ahead S/R Levels for 40 Securities & Subscribers Suggestions.

As noted on Wednesday, rate cuts are typically followed by choppiness, and our analysis of the short- and medium-term outlook is playing out as expected. Thursday’s bounce was a surprise given the weak structure and the breach of the Central Weekly Level (CWL); the intra day move appeared justified only by oversold conditions in the NDX. However, AVGO set the stage for the typical post rate cut reality. The semiconductor giant crashed on earnings, plunging 11.4% on Friday and dragging semis, tech, and ultimately the broader market into deeper bearish territory.

The bullish setups posted last Saturday performed well in terms of reaching the immediate bullish targets: MSTR hit its +8% target, PLTR reached its target with a +3.6% gain, and NVDA jumped +2.8% toward its target with precision. While these targets were hit accurately during the week, the market volatility caused those gains to vanish during the week. TSLA was an outlier, it fell initially but recovered to finish the week slightly green with a marginal gain of 0.9%.

(*The variations% mentioned were the moves to the bullish destinations set as absolutes last week for those stocks, same for the bearish moves% mentioned below).

Is this the top?

While Tech is certainly struggling, the market appears to be in the midst of a rotation. Several bearish setups anticipated last Saturday played out effectively, with key names hitting their downside targets: LLY fell -2.9%, WMT dropped -3.1%, and AAPL touched $273 with precision for a -1.8% decline intra-week. Following these moves, these securities bounced, further suggesting a rotation (The Dow Jones closed the week in the green, +1.12%), financials (XLF) +2.4%, materials (XLB) +2.4%. Meanwhile, SLV remains a beast, it didn’t even breach its Central Weekly Level (CWL) to validate a potential pullback, it continued roaring.

Upgrade your subscription to paid and unlock the bullish and bearish setups for next week, and read the individual analyses since some securities have long term setups, as AAPL had three months ago.

The support and resistance are essential during these times of volatility, the targets mentioned above for bullish and bearish setups were calculated on the modeled price levels posted last Friday, let’s study what are the ones for next week for the following securities:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, PLTR, NFLX

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

Having a broad set of securities provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions.

If you want to learn the basics of technical analysis, read this publication posted on Monday. It was available to all subscribers and shows how technicals and Support and Resistance Levels work together.

Let’s continue with the market commentary, and the Support and Resistance levels for next week considering the securities mentioned.

When you’re premium subscriber you can suggest every week the stocks of your interest, and their S/R levels are modeled on Sundays afternoon New York time. Upgrade your subscription to the paid plan before the new year! - The high probability setups have presented a success rate between 70% and 80%.

Market Observations before the S/R Levels: