Technical analysis has proven to be a powerful edge for both long-term investors and traders. Over the past weeks, I have provided documented calls with clear references to significant moves in the market, and this week offers a good opportunity to connect precise calls.
On July 29th, I called the bullish reversal for Gold with specific levels. While many analysts had been constructing the bull case for months, Gold had already dropped roughly 30% from its peak, a drawdown that even the most committed long-term holders struggle to sit through without a technical framework to lean on. The call was documented, GLD is up +13.9% since my note, the levels were clear, and the reversal played out.
On August 1st, I identified the bounce case for SpaceX. The stock is up +26% since, and paid subscribers have received the daily levels for that stock along with my daily note anticipating levels for the SPX and ES=F, giving them a concrete reference before each trading day begins.
Last week, I documented the current SPX pullback as a high-probability setup. The index declined -1.4% this week, in line with what was flagged. But here is the part that matters most for how I approach the market:
Not every stock falls when the SPX falls. That is one of the most important edges a focused watchlist provides. Tesla rallied 6% this week. Netflix rallied 2%. Both were called as high probability setups last week, with specific targets and the levels where algorithms were likely to react.
Last week, I noted the importance of the 4 year cycle for Bitcoin, we are in the most bearish moment of the most bearish year, BTC was weak below its 200 MA as documented, but also above is CML of 62,7K.
That is the core of what I do. The market is heavily driven by algorithms, and those algorithms respond to technical levels. When I publish a setup, I am not offering an opinion. I am modeling the specific prices where institutional algorithms are likely to react including targets and invalidation levels, TSLA had bullish target at 366, NFLX 80, DIA had extended bearish targets at 531 and 527, SMH at 600, and the SPX at 7,673. Numbers always tell the facts, they were modeled ahead of the week and set as targets.
Unlock the updated analysis and target levels for next week by subscribing to the paid plan. Premium subscribers receive 3 core publications per week with today’s Weekly Compass as the main one, and the following perks:
Daily levels for SPX and ES=F with market observations after the closing bell, so you have your evening to plan your moves.
Customized weekly levels for your watchlist, you post your tickers in the paid subscribers chat and they levels are posted on Sunday evening.
Download my 2 eBooks on technical analysis and get access to my Market Intelligence Library, including special technical studies and educational content on technical indicators with real life charts. Find it right here:
Risk management is always considered, the Central Weekly Level (CWL) works as invalidation alert for the bullish or bearish thesis, this week the IWM proved Small Caps cannot be divorced from the big indices when they fall, and despite of the bullish setup, IWM breached 303 on Tuesday, providing an exit sign from the long position.
People dismiss technicals during euphoria. It happened with Micron (MU). It happened with AMD. It happened with Gold, Silver, and Palantir in 2025. Every one of those situations produced a double-digit correction for anyone who ignored overbought conditions because the narrative felt compelling. The bill always comes, and it is always larger when technical conditions are not part of the decision. Same case with oversold conditions, when a security is there, human psychology is fueled with fear and aversion, but technicals may be showing a solid setup, as it was the case for Gold, SPCX, and most recently, Bitcoin.
Last week I published a broad analysis covering the Federal Reserve, oil, company fundamentals, insider selling, valuations, and geopolitical conditions. Those factors do not change week to week. If you have not read that piece, the link is below. It provides the structural context behind every technical setup I publish, and the last one was bearish for the SPX.
The watchlist I use is intentional and focused. It is a concentrated group of high-volume securities where fundamentals are transparent and well-documented and accessible, technical signals are reliable, and the options and leveraged ETF markets provide additional tools for those who want to use them.
Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F
ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX
Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD
Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT
When analyzing the moves during the 5 days of the week that just ended, the picture shows weakness in the market: Technology (XLK) fell sharply, Financials (XLF) followed, and Consumer Staples (XLY) stayed flat, while money rotated to defensives like materials (XLB) and healthcare (XLV); energy (XLE) rallied, something that as studied last Saturday (link above), it may happen in economic expansion moments, or it can be driven by supply reduction that endangers inflation, as it is the case today.
Every study and publication is available at smartreversals.com. Zero gut feeling, everything is specific.
Today’s Agenda
Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.
Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.
Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.
Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.
Special Zoom in to TSLA: The latest +16% has been consistent with technical analysis, important educational note.
SPX: The Bearish Move is Unlikely Finished
Macro factors like the escalation in government bond yields, surge in oil prices driven by the geopolitical conflict in Iran, rising national debt concerns, and the technical factors presented here suggest the bearish move is not complete for the SPX, the 4 critical indicators to track are here: