Investing, like any other structured activity, demands an organized approach: understanding the context, planning a strategy, implementing it, and following up. What I offer with SmartReversals is structure, consistency, and tools that help you outperform the market.
This is my investment framework and below you find the description for each stage:
Understanding the context has two elements. The first is fundamental analysis, which starts with the revenue trend and margin trajectory from company-reported figures. From there I check earnings quality, meaning whether free cash flow supports what the income statement shows, and I follow the catalyst calendar to see which event could accelerate or invalidate the chart thesis. I also assess the economic moat of the business, and I close with a target price for the next month, 3 months, and 1 year.
With this in mind, you can make decisions with more confidence, which is essential for long-term investors and traders. I update these every earnings season in downloadable PDF one-pagers, straight to the point and structured so you can easily compare each company in our watchlist.
The second element is momentum, which refers to the stage each stock is in within its cycle. We saw how relevant this is when non-tech securities like COST, WMT, LLY, and XOM rallied in October while tech was falling. The same rotation happens inside tech since not all the names of a sector are in the same stage.
This has been key to my picks of the month, as subscribers know. They worked very well in July with MSFT and AAPL, in August with SPCX, PLTR, BTC, NFLX, and GLD, in September with META and AMD, and in October with COST, WMT, and TSLA. My picks for November are below.
Then come the technical charts. They provide direction and show oversold and overbought conditions. Few analysts pay attention to those conditions, but in my case, that’s how the bullish and bearish calls are made.
The Weekly Compass with Momentum Map, Technical Charts and High Probability Setups is here:
Some people check fundamentals after picking stocks based on technical analysis, and that’s fine. What matters is knowing what’s behind the chart. Whenever you look at the fundamentals, the important thing is that you do it.
Support and resistance levels frame price action. They are modeled every month and every week, and they have proven accurate for setting targets and risk management levels. More than 70% of the daily volume in the market is driven by algorithms, and these levels have held up through more than two years of SmartReversals modeling them in advance for the entire watchlist.
The levels for November and Next Week are here:
I combine the momentum map, the technical charts, and the modeled support and resistance levels to post high probability trades every week. All three elements must coexist, never just two and never just one. They are posted in the Weekly Compass every Saturday.
Then we track performance. I post a daily note with the watchlist performance and each ticker’s distance to the key levels, so we can follow our high probability trades and spot tickers that may be showing opportunities on the go.
These are the tickers I constantly track fundamentally and technically:
Regular Watchlist: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, SPCX, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD
Expanded Watchlist (Founding Members): MU, ASML, TSM, CRWD, SHOP, MELI, BABA, SPOT, INTC, MSTR, SNDK, HOOD, CRWV, AMAT, UBER, KO, CAT, APP, MRVL, ORCL, NOW, QCOM, WDC, STX, COIN, NVO.
If you trade some of those tickers, this publication is for you. upgrade to paid plan and unlock today’s fundamental deep dive and all the premium content.
Subscribing also grants you full access to my educational library, including two eBooks on technical analysis (Essentials and Advanced), plus the ability to submit your favorite stocks every weekend to have their support and resistance levels modeled for the week ahead.
Today’s Agenda:
Downloadable one-pagers with the fundamental analysis for:
Amazon AMZN
Alphabet GOOG
Meta Platforms META
Tesla TSLA
SpaceX SPCX
Netflix NFLX
Eli Lilly LLY
Exxon Mobil XOM
JP Morgan JPM
Visa V
Let’s begin: