The SPX printed a bullish day, just as my VIX analysis suggested yesterday. The index closed right at a confluence of major levels and moving averages, and that zone decides what comes next.
How the weekly plan has played out this week
SPX: Saturday’s Weekly Compass studied a likely bounce based on daily oversold conditions. Monday’s central daily level (bullish above, bearish below) was 7,396, and price surpassed it that day, the early signal. The weekly level at 7,480 was recovered on Monday and held as precise support on Tuesday, despite the bearish reaction to a hot CPI. Today the first weekly bullish target at 7,611 was reached. The SPX has bounced +3.3% so far this week.
E-mini futures: Today’s central daily level was 7,548. Futures have held above it since last night and cleared 7,603.5, 7,654.0, and the weekly level of 7,661.1 without significant friction.
VIX: Yesterday, demand for downside protection was falling. That told us the selling was orderly rather than panic, and it is why I expected the bounce to continue 🎯.
AMD and SMH: Both were posted as bullish setups on Saturday despite the bearishness in semiconductors. They have rallied +23% and +9.3% respectively so far this week, exceeding their targets. Technicals tell the truth, sentiment does not.
MSFT: My neutral reading of the indicators anticipated a bearish move. It declined 2.3% today and triggered the bearish setup.
SPCX: It rallied to 144.5 (+7.7%) with precision but did not break through. The pullback is healthy, and it shows how these levels anticipate the zones where institutional algorithms react.
What to watch tomorrow
The SPX closed at a confluence of major levels and moving averages that I will describe below in the premium content, the same levels I anticipated during the weekend as the breaking point to consider a bottom is in or if this was a tactical bounce. In any case paid subscribers know why the current turbulence is offering medium and long-term entries based on statistics for the SPX and fundamentals for the megacaps.
Technical indicators provide direction, and when we trade them, we trade probability. The modeled levels provide the validation.
This note arrives in the afternoon so you don’t have to rush at the open to assess levels or choose tickers. This note and the watchlist tracker give you a compass for the day ahead, and you make your decisions in advance.
The framework behind the setups
Fundamentals set my conviction in each setup. I map the entire watchlist to assess the stage of each ticker and detect the new opportunities. Technicals give direction, and levels give targets and risk management. The fundamental analyses are updated after each earnings report and downloadable from a single space:
This week’s strategy, with bullish statistical references for long-term investors and traders along with the high-probability setups, is here:
For longer term investors my monthly picks follow the same process . 🎯July: MSFT (+24%) and AAPL (+7%). 🎯August: SPCX (+32%), PLTR (+35%), BTC (+25%), NFLX (+13%), and GLD (+9%). 🎯September: META (+26%) and AMD (+29%). 🎯October: COST (+11%), WMT (+19%), and TSLA (+12%). 🎯November’s three main picks average a 6.5% gain so far, despite the turbulence. They are analyzed below.
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Today’s Agenda
SPX: Analysis of the Confluence Zone ahead of PPI Data
Daily plan for SPX, ES=F.
Daily and Weekly Levels Combined for SPX, ES=F, and Semiconductors Giants
Watchlist Tracker