U.S. equities sold off today as a hot October CPI print reignited Fed tightening concerns. October headline inflation rose 0.4% versus the 0.3% expected. Treasury yields spiked on the news, accompanied by Fed commentary floating a potential 50 bps move next month. Yesterday, I flagged rate hike probabilities at 82%. Today, Fed funds futures are pricing 100%: an 89% probability of a 25 bps hike on December 9, and an 11% chance of a 50 bps increase.
During the drop, the SPX tagged my 7,480 weekly level to the tick. Price rebounded to print an indecisive daily candle, but crucially held the Central Weekly Level. The rule remains intact: constructive above, defensive below, and today we saw a higher low for third consecutive day in the SPX.
From Saturday’s high-probability setups, AMD converted 508.4 into support, surging +14% on the week with an open path toward 561, SPCX opened green yesterday and hit our 144.5 upside target today for a +6.5% weekly move so far. SMH remains above 480.8 for a +4.2% week-to-date gain, and GOOG is offering a second-chance entry for those who doubted the setup.
In addition, my November long ideas are delivering outperformance: one is up +13% this week, and the second has added +4.5% following a +7.8% surge last week. Full technical roadmaps for both are charted below.
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Today’s Agenda
What is the VIX Telling us Today?
My November Picks
Daily plan for SPX, ES=F.
Daily and Weekly Levels Combined for SPX, ES=F, SMH, NVDA, MU, AMD, AVGO
Watchlist Tracker
Let’s begin.