Extreme Greed Continues
The Trend is Bullish Until the Key Levels are Breached - S/R Levels for July 14th - 18th
The major stock market indices have entered a healthy consolidation mode. After starting the week in the red, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 showed resilience, closing the week flat. This price action occurred as market sentiment reached "Extreme Greed," a cautionary sign that requires careful monitoring for confirmation.
Speaking of the SPX, the week's price action followed the consolidation setup and levels. The index opened in the red and fell to the exact bearish target mentioned in last Saturday's Weekly Compass: $6,208. This move also filled the gap from the previous week. However, buyers stepped in quickly, forming a hammer-like candle on the 4-hour timeframe and an indecisive candle on the 2-hour chart by Monday's close. After some hesitation on Tuesday, the price successfully reclaimed its key levels on Wednesday afternoon.
Weeks like this one can be exhausting, but they are predictable when you have the right context. The overheated conditions we monitored last week allowed us to anticipate spikes in the VIX and pullbacks that, in this case, were swiftly bought.
The setup for next week remains similar for the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (NDX). The key difference is that another breach of the central weekly level would serve as a second technical warning. The key levels to watch for the SPX, NDX, DIA, IWM, and over 40 other securities are posted below.
How to Get the Most Out of This Publication
This is a perfect moment to provide a guide on how to best use the content at SmartReversals.com. The methodology is based on a top-down approach, ensuring you have a complete picture before making any decisions.
The Weekly Publication Rhythm:
Wednesdays - The Macro View: The Market Update, which includes special market studies, fundamentals, educational content and every quarter a macro-economic analysis (macro update coming by the end of July). Click here for access.
Fridays - The Tactical Levels: You receive the modeled Support and Resistance levels for 40+ securities to prepare for the week ahead (as seen below). Click here.
Saturdays - The Technical Setups: The "Weekly Compass" is released, featuring technical analysis, charts, and trade setups. Click here.
Always Available - The Foundation: The Fundamental Library, with deep dives on 45+ companies, is updated quarterly and available anytime. The latest analyses were for CRM and MRVL, the next one is for UBER, and the ones suggested by subscribers during this summer. Access the library here.
Putting It All Together: A Practical Example
Let's say you see an interesting setup for AAPL in Saturday's Weekly Compass.
You now have a technical thesis and the key weekly levels (bullish above X, targeting Y, or bearish below X, targeting Z; with the most probable move based on customized technical analysis).
Next, you visit the Fundamental Library to understand Apple's competitive advantages, financial health, and growth prospects.
Above all, you recall the overall market context from the market research studies.
Finally, based on your risk tolerance, investment horizon, and technical level you choose the best instrument that suits your strategy. Click here.
And every Friday and Wednesdays, the price is framed in the Support and Resistance levels for the week and month.
That, until a reversal is likely, and you have in your radar other security also analyzed in the Weekly Compass, so the process repeats.
By combining these layers, you can make a well-informed decision. Each section alone is worth the subscription—from the historical studies that are more relevant than any textbook with old charts, to the weekly levels that are a primary tool for many traders, and the technical publication constantly analyzes 20 charts every single week; not to mention the fundamental library. Welcome aboard.
My view of the Stock Market for the rest of 2025 can be captured by these market studies, they are based on technical patterns well explained, and the conclusions provided have proven their worth:
Support and Resistance Levels
A comprehensive guide on how to use these levels is available to everyone in the three publications linked below.
This publication consistently analyzes the following securities to provide a broad market perspective and empower your trading decisions:
Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F
ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, SH, PSQ
Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, UNH, AVGO, COST, PFE, PLTR, NFLX
Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, ETH, IBIT, MSTR
Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY
Subscribe now, and unlock all the educational content, the levels for next week, and the Weekly Compass with 20+ charts and price targets. Price action is showing exhaustion, have the right tools to navigate it.
WEEKLY LEVELS
As you can tell, securities like IWM, DIA, TLT, NFLX, COST, META, and the ones with red figures in the blue column are showing weakness for next week already, since they have to jump in the proportion indicated to recover a bullish setup.