The Quarter’s Most Crowded Week: What’s Next?
Support and Resistance Levels for the week ahead: SPX, NDX, Magnificent Seven, Futures, ETFs, Metals, and Crypto
This week has been one of the most consequential for the 2026 market, defined by a historic Federal Reserve meeting and a flood of top-tier economic data. The Fed opted to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% for the third consecutive meeting, but the decision was marked by a rare level of internal dissent not seen since 1992. Four officials broke from the majority, signaling a significant rift over how to handle the “oil shock” caused by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. With Brent crude hovering above $100 per barrel and headline inflation spiking to 3.3% in March, the central bank’s “wait-and-see” approach is being severely tested by rising energy costs and a resilient labor market, where jobless claims recently hit their lowest levels since 1969.
On the corporate front, the Q1 2026 earnings season reached a fever pitch as over 900 companies reported, led by the “Big Five” tech giants. Apple delivered a standout performance, surging over 3% on a revenue beat of $111.18 billion, while Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon faced intense scrutiny over their massive $700 billion AI infrastructure spend. Beyond technology, the energy sector took center stage as ExxonMobil and Chevron reported results that beat estimates amid the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz blockades—though headline profits declined sharply year-over-year due to unfavorable hedging and timing effects from the oil shock. Despite the geopolitical volatility, the S&P 500 has managed to absorb these shocks, with FactSet data showing a sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth, providing a fundamental cushion against the macro uncertainty.
As studied yesterday, April closed with a historical rally that was significantly stronger and more rapid than the recovery seen in April 2025. While there is clear bullish conviction and the long-term odds for continuation remain high, the very short term suggests a healthy pullback. This thesis is supported by indecisive price action on the daily timeframe and overbought conditions currently reflected in the RSI.
Also on the bullish front, I want to highlight today’s bounce off the 50DMA by the IGV Software ETF and leading software stocks in general. NOW, PLTR, CRM, ADBE, and many others I analyzed last Wednesday rallied today.
The purpose of the Wednesday publication is to provide market intelligence to both long-term investors and short-term traders, offering insights for informed decision-making. Links to recent publications are available below the chart.
My Most Recent Market Intelligence Publications:
And one posted since November about my 2026 SPX target:
Upgrade to a paid subscription to unlock all of the premium content at smartreversals.com. Today, as with every Friday, I’m providing the S/R levels for the following securities. These levels frame price action and validate technical setups; if you trade any of these assets, this publication is essential for you:
Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F
ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX
Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD
Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT
Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY
Paid subscribers can suggest additional stocks, so the levels are modeled and delivered on Sundays.
Educational content about using Support and Resistance Levels:
Let’s begin.
WEEKLY S/R LEVELS
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